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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Gadfly said:

    "Critics, Labour and Tory alike, enjoy calling May ‘weak’ but they might ponder the message sent, especially to female voters, by using that word about a woman in public life.

    May’s gender is also a reason to think twice before writing her off or predicting she’ll quit. She is fantastically tough, as any woman who has reached her level in politics must be. By tough, I mean resilient, persistent, undeterred by rejection and criticism and abuse. All politicians get those, but it’s still worse for women – and it used to be much, much worse. In more than 20 years dealing with politicians of all sorts, the toughest I’ve ever met remains Harriet Harman, whose dauntless ability to shrug off abuse and rejection and keep powering on is close to awe-inspiring. There are mountain ranges with less resilience than ‘Harriet Harperson’.

    May hasn’t quite had Harman’s brutally gruelling history, but she too came up the hard way – because until recently, there was no other way for women to make the political ascent. She entered the Commons in 1997, the nadir of modern Conservative fortunes. Her parliamentary career began in failure and ignominy. It’s also worth noting that the 1997 election returned just 120 female MPs, and just 13 of them were Tories. Will someone who has climbed from there to the peak, who has crawled over broken glass to reach her goal, really walk away because the job is difficult and you’ve made mistakes and people are saying hard words about you? I have my doubts."

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-can-rise-depths-cant-theresa-may/

    some really horrible by-elections.
    Talking of which:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878028076097187840
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878025508394369024
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878006376546660353
    Interesting. Swings to Labour.
    And Con, and Lib Dem....
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    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    Seems that Theresa Mays government is on the side of the gambler, I am sure all shrewdies welcome this

    https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/online-gambling#withdrawal-amounts-further-call-for-your-views
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    It's quite simple: the Conservatives do not 'deserve' to be in power. They have not done enough to earn the reward of power, and have no idea what to do with the power they've got. They're leaderless, rudderless, and in active mutiny.

    The only upside for them is that Labour was in the same situation just a month ago. They still don't have a leader (in the classical sense), they're rudderless, and although the mutiny has ended, it remains to be seen how long the mutineers will remain silent.

    I think the record of the Conservative administration is very good, particularly with the economy.

    They just chose not to fight on it.
    It could be worse, but that does not equate with 'very good'.

    The rise of Labour under a hard-left leader shows that the Conservatives are not taking massive numbers of the country with them. An election fought on: "Urgh! Look at the man leading the opposition!" is not a positive reason to vote for them.

    If they continue in that manner then they'll get thrashed in the next election. Yes, Labour's campaign was filled with lots of nasty 'Tories are evil baby-eaters', but they also had lots of positive sweeties for people who feel that they've been left behind. Yes, it may be unaffordable. Yes, it may be disastrous for the country in the long term. But at least someone is offering them something positive for them.

    The main thing that has happened over the last two or three years is that people have started to notice things are not working in their favour. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but there have been major and noticeable cuts to public services across the board, prices have started to rise and most incomes are stagnant. Corbyn offers (deeply flawed) solutions. The Tories promise more of the same. It's no surprise more and more people are taking the Corbyn option. The Tories have some serious thinking to do. Are they really doing all they can to help the Just About Managing?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    F1: when not worried about the terrible/amazing/voided bets, one of the more normal things I was considering was McLaren drivers to get points. But they're starting at the back of the grid. Also, the long straight means they'll get murdered on it.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40371503

    No wonder they want Mercedes' engines.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    Roger said:

    If I was Qatar I'd be sorely tempted to refer Saudi Arabia to the reply given in Arkell vs Pressdram:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-qatar-diplomatic-feud-latest-al-jazeera-demands-list-uae-egypt-bahrain-a7803981.html

    Very interesting. With any other POTUS the US would see the writing on the wall and realise what dealing with Saudi and the Gulf States looks like. Promoting democracy in the region with those countries as allies looks pretty hollow

    I would be very sad to see Al Jazerra close down - it provides excellent reporting and appears pretty unbiased - no wonder the Saudi's hate it. Bit tricky fighting a war with Qatar when the US has a huge base there.....with the UK in a corner of it.....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    The EU's position is already more generous than May's proposal. The offer from May is simply a running commentary for the benefit of the media - exactly what she promised not to do.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.
    Theresa isn't so much failing, but crashing. I don't understand why she hasn't gone yet. We urgently need someone in the EU who isn't damaged goods. She has zero authority.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system.
    Writes the man who thinks '35' is statistically different to '34'.....
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    Yes - she wants reciprocity based on the deal she is offering, which is worse for UK citizens in the EU27 than the deal the EU is offering.

    However, it is wise to remember that this is an opening offer. Such is the weakness of the UK's negotiating hand that the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,582
    Jonathan said:

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.
    Theresa isn't so much failing, but crashing. I don't understand why she hasn't gone yet. We urgently need someone in the EU who isn't damaged goods. She has zero authority.
    She'd be gone were Tories not worrying about starting any train of events that ends in an early election. She may still be gone, once the summer holiday starts.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his. However, it is a remarkable turnaround since April.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,582

    It's quite simple: the Conservatives do not 'deserve' to be in power. They have not done enough to earn the reward of power, and have no idea what to do with the power they've got. They're leaderless, rudderless, and in active mutiny.

    The only upside for them is that Labour was in the same situation just a month ago. They still don't have a leader (in the classical sense), they're rudderless, and although the mutiny has ended, it remains to be seen how long the mutineers will remain silent.

    I think the record of the Conservative administration is very good, particularly with the economy.

    They just chose not to fight on it.
    It could be worse, but that does not equate with 'very good'.

    The rise of Labour under a hard-left leader shows that the Conservatives are not taking massive numbers of the country with them. An election fought on: "Urgh! Look at the man leading the opposition!" is not a positive reason to vote for them.

    If they continue in that manner then they'll get thrashed in the next election. Yes, Labour's campaign was filled with lots of nasty 'Tories are evil baby-eaters', but they also had lots of positive sweeties for people who feel that they've been left behind. Yes, it may be unaffordable. Yes, it may be disastrous for the country in the long term. But at least someone is offering them something positive for them.

    The main thing that has happened over the last two or three years is that people have started to notice things are not working in their favour. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but there have been major and noticeable cuts to public services across the board, prices have started to rise and most incomes are stagnant. Corbyn offers (deeply flawed) solutions. The Tories promise more of the same. It's no surprise more and more people are taking the Corbyn option. The Tories have some serious thinking to do. Are they really doing all they can to help the Just About Managing?

    Ask Boris?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    Yes - she wants reciprocity based on the deal she is offering, which is worse for UK citizens in the EU27 than the deal the EU is offering.

    However, it is wise to remember that this is an opening offer. Such is the weakness of the UK's negotiating hand that the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.

    Good job the EU is looking after UK citizens - shame our government isn't doing it's job.

    I bet many UK citizens would opt for EU citizenship given the option.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system.
    Writes the man who thinks '35' is statistically different to '34'.....
    We can all agree that 39 is statistically different from -1. Which is the rather more important point that you're desperate to avoid commenting on.

    If Theresa May were a tree, the lumberjack would be yelling "TIMBER".
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    edited June 2017

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his.
    So if May survives we can expect 'May's ratings recover' threads?

    No, didn't think so.....
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    It's quite simple: the Conservatives do not 'deserve' to be in power. They have not done enough to earn the reward of power, and have no idea what to do with the power they've got. They're leaderless, rudderless, and in active mutiny.

    The only upside for them is that Labour was in the same situation just a month ago. They still don't have a leader (in the classical sense), they're rudderless, and although the mutiny has ended, it remains to be seen how long the mutineers will remain silent.

    I think the record of the Conservative administration is very good, particularly with the economy.

    They just chose not to fight on it.
    It could be worse, but that does not equate with 'very good'.

    The rise of Labour under a hard-left leader shows that the Conservatives are not taking massive numbers of the country with them. An election fought on: "Urgh! Look at the man leading the opposition!" is not a positive reason to vote for them.

    If they continue in that manner then they'll get thrashed in the next election. Yes, Labour's campaign was filled with lots of nasty 'Tories are evil baby-eaters', but they also had lots of positive sweeties for people who feel that they've been left behind. Yes, it may be unaffordable. Yes, it may be disastrous for the country in the long term. But at least someone is offering them something positive for them.

    The main thing that has happened over the last two or three years is that people have started to notice things are not working in their favour. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but there have been major and noticeable cuts to public services across the board, prices have started to rise and most incomes are stagnant. Corbyn offers (deeply flawed) solutions. The Tories promise more of the same. It's no surprise more and more people are taking the Corbyn option. The Tories have some serious thinking to do. Are they really doing all they can to help the Just About Managing?

    The thing is May was far more open that things aren't working than Cameron and Osborne would or could have been.

    But its possible that May acknowledging that there are problems but failing to offer solutions was the worst thing that could have been done from a Conservative electoral viewpoint.

    Still its good that these issues are being discussed more.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    Simple, just let people individually decide which they'd rather be!
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his.
    So if May survives we can expect 'May's ratings recover' threads?

    No, didn't think so.....

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his.
    So if May survives we can expect 'May's ratings recover' threads?

    No, didn't think so.....
    Talking to yourself again?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system.
    Writes the man who thinks '35' is statistically different to '34'.....
    If Theresa May were a tree, the lumberjack would be yelling "TIMBER".
    But she isn't. And the Tory party remains mute.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.
    The general election came just a bit too soon for the Liberal Democrats. Mrs May knew what she was doing. Didn`t she?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,940

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    Plus te huge bonus of Fox Gove Leadsom and Patel resigning (if by then they have anywhere to resign from)
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,928

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system.
    Writes the man who thinks '35' is statistically different to '34'.....
    We can all agree that 39 is statistically different from -1. Which is the rather more important point that you're desperate to avoid commenting on.

    If Theresa May were a tree, the lumberjack would be yelling "TIMBER".
    Sadly, I think she might be more like one of those skeleton elms you used to see standing for years after dutch elm disease had got them.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457
    Just watched clip from Question Time last night showing Dimbleby ordereing a Corbynista to leave and the audience resounding applause. A real warning to the hard left

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    The root cause of the current situation we are in was those labour MP's that put Corbyn on the ballot to
    widen the choice. If they had not then in all likelyhood the referendum result would have been different
    and May would not be PM and there wouldntbean election until 2019. Which may have resulted in a labour
    win depending on what happened with UKIP.

    Lol. Andy Burnham would be Labour leader. And probably PM by now. With the Tories under Leadsome or somesuch, reliving the joys of the IDS era.
    Alternative scenarios are interesting, but if you had been a hermit for the last few years and we're told that scenario and what has actually happened, which would have seemed the more likely?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    ScarfNZ said:

    If the Conservatives deliver BREXIT ......... they will be out of power for a generation!

    Possibly.... But some things are more important than party politics.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Morning all, on the first anniversary of an historic day in Britain's history!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. NorthWales, I'd be wary of ever considering a QT audience necessarily indicative of public opinion.

    The sister show, AQ, had an edition about a decade ago now in a mosque. Mehdi Hasan claimed Muslims were being treated like the Jews in the 1930s, and got loud applause.

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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    Just watched clip from Question Time last night showing Dimbleby ordereing a Corbynista to leave and the audience resounding applause. A real warning to the hard left

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Oh dear, is she the best you have?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457
    Faisal Islam is Juncker's UK stooge
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    edited June 2017

    Just watched clip from Question Time last night showing Dimbleby ordereing a Corbynista to leave and the audience resounding applause. A real warning to the hard left

    Yep, shouty man being slung out of QT and the audience response is a warning to Corbynista's everywhere how this could all go horribly wrong for Jezza and Johnny Mac...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    ScarfNZ said:

    If the Conservatives deliver BREXIT ......... they will be out of power for a generation!

    Possibly.... But some things are more important than party politics.
    People said whoever came to power after the financial crisis would have to make such large cuts they would be out of power for a generation.....7 years later they are stil the government.

    people need to stop making these predictions.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457

    Just watched clip from Question Time last night showing Dimbleby ordereing a Corbynista to leave and the audience resounding applause. A real warning to the hard left

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Oh dear, is she the best you have?
    All will be revealed in time. I am relaxed about the position at present
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mr. NorthWales, I'd be wary of ever considering a QT audience necessarily indicative of public opinion.

    The sister show, AQ, had an edition about a decade ago now in a mosque. Mehdi Hasan claimed Muslims were being treated like the Jews in the 1930s, and got loud applause.

    Today is the anniversary (1942) of the first selection of Jews picked to go to the Auschwitz gas chambers.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

    Labour should put it in their manifesto.....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    It's quite simple: the Conservatives do not 'deserve' to be in power. They have not done enough to earn the reward of power, and have no idea what to do with the power they've got. They're leaderless, rudderless, and in active mutiny.

    The only upside for them is that Labour was in the same situation just a month ago. They still don't have a leader (in the classical sense), they're rudderless, and although the mutiny has ended, it remains to be seen how long the mutineers will remain silent.

    I think the record of the Conservative administration is very good, particularly with the economy.

    They just chose not to fight on it.
    It could be worse, but that does not equate with 'very good'.

    The rise of Labour under a hard-left leader shows that the Conservatives are not taking massive numbers of the country with them. An election fought on: "Urgh! Look at the man leading the opposition!" is not a positive reason to vote for them.

    If they continue in that manner then they'll get thrashed in the next election. Yes, Labour's campaign was filled with lots of nasty 'Tories are evil baby-eaters', but they also had lots of positive sweeties for people who feel that they've been left behind. Yes, it may be unaffordable. Yes, it may be disastrous for the country in the long term. But at least someone is offering them something positive for them.

    The main thing that has happened over the last two or three years is that people have started to notice things are not working in their favour. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but there have been major and noticeable cuts to public services across the board, prices have started to rise and most incomes are stagnant. Corbyn offers (deeply flawed) solutions. The Tories promise more of the same. It's no surprise more and more people are taking the Corbyn option. The Tories have some serious thinking to do. Are they really doing all they can to help the Just About Managing?

    The thing is May was far more open that things aren't working than Cameron and Osborne would or could have been.

    But its possible that May acknowledging that there are problems but failing to offer solutions was the worst thing that could have been done from a Conservative electoral viewpoint.

    Still its good that these issues are being discussed more.

    It is. Sadly, with Labour under its current leadership it will not be a particularly sensible discussion. Social care is one area that May did open up the possibility of a serious discussion. The sensible Burnham solution was scuppered by Cameron, Osborne and Lansley, and that is the one a sensible Labour party would go back to.

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    Surprised to see Finland with such a high level of youth unemployment?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457

    Mr. NorthWales, I'd be wary of ever considering a QT audience necessarily indicative of public opinion.

    The sister show, AQ, had an edition about a decade ago now in a mosque. Mehdi Hasan claimed Muslims were being treated like the Jews in the 1930s, and got loud applause.

    He was behaving as a complete pratt and was dismissed and relief was felt by all
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

    Labour should put it in their manifesto.....

    They should. And so should the Tories and all other parties.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    One of my guaranteed daily tasks is shredding Spanish CVs. I get dozens per day.

    There aren't enough bird cages in the world to use them all as lining.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, but a single incident involving one pillock and a small audience can't be considered a statistically balanced sample.

    An awful lot of people are supporting Corbyn. Some are hard left, others simply unfamiliar with basic economics and lacking any grasp of history so recent it's practically current affairs.

    Speaking of such things, any word on Davey yet? He and Cable are 3/1.36 or so on Ladbrokes now.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    He did, but let's not canonise him. The French system hugely rewards moderate candidates through the 2nd preference system, and there were huge abstentions in the parliamentary elections, where he barely got 40% turnout.

    At least in the UK we got a GE with a very high turnout of almost 70%.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    Mr. NorthWales, I'd be wary of ever considering a QT audience necessarily indicative of public opinion.

    The sister show, AQ, had an edition about a decade ago now in a mosque. Mehdi Hasan claimed Muslims were being treated like the Jews in the 1930s, and got loud applause.

    He was behaving as a complete pratt and was dismissed and relief was felt by all
    Yes, he was shouting the loudest, jumping up and down, stamping his feet and generally making an round nuisance of himself until finally everyone had had enough of him and his distributive influence and he was sent him packing...

    Could be a metaphor for Jezza in there somewhere,,,
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    GeoffM said:

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    One of my guaranteed daily tasks is shredding Spanish CVs. I get dozens per day.

    There aren't enough bird cages in the world to use them all as lining.
    So the EU was working out quite well for the UK here. I wonder if that unemployment figure will go up or down post Brexit.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his.
    So if May survives we can expect 'May's ratings recover' threads?

    No, didn't think so.....

    Mr. Eagles, but the same question applies: would Cameron stand to be an MP again?

    They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.

    Dave could be PM from the Lords.
    Posh boy squared....
    The country loves a posh boy. That's why he took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
    And got fewer votes than the Vicar's daughter....
    Clearly you don't understand he electoral system. You see so desperate to speak up for failing Theresa.

    May is probably at the bottom of her range now; Corbyn at the top of his.
    So if May survives we can expect 'May's ratings recover' threads?

    No, didn't think so.....
    Talking to yourself again?
    If she survives the summer her ratings will recover somewhat. Remember just weeks ago Meeks etc were saying how likely it was the Tories were going to gain a massive landslide and gain Camerthen East and Dinefwr.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Druncker:

    https

    Faisal Islam is Juncker's UK stooge
    Islam is a disgrace.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Observer,

    "The sensible Burnham solution was scuppered by Cameron, Osborne and Lansley, and that is the one a sensible Labour party would go back to."

    That encapsulates the problem with party politics. When Burnham makes a sensible proposal, he sought to bash the Tories over it, and the Tories rejected it for party advantage even though it was clearly the way forward.

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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    I'm pondering what effect Glastonbury might have on all this. I'm not entirely sure the sight of thousands of middle class kids chanting 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' is going to play well with the working class, the older demographic and against the backdrop of the grim national situation.
    It's got the possibility to be a Sheffield Rally type moment. I say this as someone who is firmly opposed to the Tories now, but I just can't see a positive in this sort of scene for Labour and Corbyn.
    The one key thing he will find with youth political support is that it is very transient and not ever so deep. Not many early twenties will be pounding the doorsteps canvassing twixt now and the next GE.
    If the July 1 million man March turns to shit it may all start to smell pretty foul.
    Festivals, Dear boy, festivals.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    On low turnouts, he really is their Blair.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    PClipp said:

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.
    The general election came just a bit too soon for the Liberal Democrats. Mrs May knew what she was doing. Didn`t she?
    She would have been better off in the short term at least if she hadn't called the election but she may well have done even worse if she'd left it until the Autumn.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

    Labour should put it in their manifesto.....

    They should. And so should the Tories and all other parties.

    You don't believe in the electorate being given a choice?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    I'm pondering what effect Glastonbury might have on all this. I'm not entirely sure the sight of thousands of middle class kids chanting 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' is going to play well with the working class, the older demographic and against the backdrop of the grim national situation.
    It's got the possibility to be a Sheffield Rally type moment. I say this as someone who is firmly opposed to the Tories now, but I just can't see a positive in this sort of scene for Labour and Corbyn.
    The one key thing he will find with youth political support is that it is very transient and not ever so deep. Not many early twenties will be pounding the doorsteps canvassing twist now and the next GE.
    If the July 1 million man March turns to shit it may all start to smell pretty foul.
    Festivals, Dear boy, festivals.

    Is it possible - and bear with me on this - that no-one beyond a few Corbynista fans will remotely give a shit?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,921

    Just watched clip from Question Time last night showing Dimbleby ordereing a Corbynista to leave and the audience resounding applause. A real warning to the hard left

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Yes, the immediate wobble is probably over (black swan events notwithstanding) and you're back in the ditch with the leader after a wobble or two of your own.

    The problem isn't going to go away - she is and has been diminished by events entirely of her own choosing. That is going to be hard to get past - people are waiting for her to go and an increasing number outside the immediate environs of the Conservative Party want her gone.

    That infects the whole Government with a sense of decay, lack of purpose and the continual questioning of potential successors. The Thatcher Government became paralysed during 1988-90 because of this internal feuding not helped by Thatcher's own preference for Walters over Lawson (and there are clear parallels with the Timothy/Hill debacle).

    The one thing she cannot afford to be is Presidential - the days of "me and my team" died on June 8th.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457
    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Also on question time last night I was actually quite impressed with Gina Miller (Wow - did I just write that)
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    edited June 2017

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    He did, but let's not canonise him. The French system hugely rewards moderate candidates through the 2nd preference system, and there were huge abstentions in the parliamentary elections, where he barely got 40% turnout.

    At least in the UK we got a GE with a very high turnout of almost 70%.

    The people who turned out voted for him. He has a huge mandate and a massive majority. The pressure is now on him to deliver, of course. But his election and Merkel's resurgence after her trip to visit Trump in the US has certainly buoyed the EU27.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    He did, but let's not canonise him. The French system hugely rewards moderate candidates through the 2nd preference system, and there were huge abstentions in the parliamentary elections, where he barely got 40% turnout.

    At least in the UK we got a GE with a very high turnout of almost 70%.

    The people who turned out voted for him.

    A slightly pointless truism.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    Surprised to see Finland with such a high level of youth unemployment?
    No, because it's application to join Scandinavia was rejected.....
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Jonathan said:

    I'm pondering what effect Glastonbury might have on all this. I'm not entirely sure the sight of thousands of middle class kids chanting 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' is going to play well with the working class, the older demographic and against the backdrop of the grim national situation.
    It's got the possibility to be a Sheffield Rally type moment. I say this as someone who is firmly opposed to the Tories now, but I just can't see a positive in this sort of scene for Labour and Corbyn.
    The one key thing he will find with youth political support is that it is very transient and not ever so deep. Not many early twenties will be pounding the doorsteps canvassing twist now and the next GE.
    If the July 1 million man March turns to shit it may all start to smell pretty foul.
    Festivals, Dear boy, festivals.

    Is it possible - and bear with me on this - that no-one beyond a few Corbynista fans will remotely give a shit?
    Corbyn is the new cool fresh thing, until he's no longer the new cool fresh thing.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    Re. YG - must be an outlier :)
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Jonathan said:

    I'm pondering what effect Glastonbury might have on all this. I'm not entirely sure the sight of thousands of middle class kids chanting 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' is going to play well with the working class, the older demographic and against the backdrop of the grim national situation.
    It's got the possibility to be a Sheffield Rally type moment. I say this as someone who is firmly opposed to the Tories now, but I just can't see a positive in this sort of scene for Labour and Corbyn.
    The one key thing he will find with youth political support is that it is very transient and not ever so deep. Not many early twenties will be pounding the doorsteps canvassing twist now and the next GE.
    If the July 1 million man March turns to shit it may all start to smell pretty foul.
    Festivals, Dear boy, festivals.

    Is it possible - and bear with me on this - that no-one beyond a few Corbynista fans will remotely give a shit?
    Perfectly possible. Eyes, however, are very much on matters political at the moment so I tentatively suggest things which mid parliament would just result in minor eyeball rolling might have a slightly more important effect right now.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Jonathan said:

    GeoffM said:

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    One of my guaranteed daily tasks is shredding Spanish CVs. I get dozens per day.

    There aren't enough bird cages in the world to use them all as lining.
    So the EU was working out quite well for the UK here. I wonder if that unemployment figure will go up or down post Brexit.
    So far, it's gone down in the UK.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

    Labour should put it in their manifesto.....

    They should. And so should the Tories and all other parties.

    You don't believe in the electorate being given a choice?

    Eh? There is plenty of stuff that all the parties agree on.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Woolie,

    Having hundreds of Corbynistas canvassing houses and shouting at the occupants would probably guarantee a landslide - to the Tories.
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    CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    Almost every time I have seen major strategic mistakes in business, it is when a company has plotted forward a trend line without thinking deeply about the reasons underlying the trend. The Conservatives would be doing the same thing if they panicked unnecessarily about a fall from sky high levels to normal ones.

    We should remember that Theresa May won 5% more than Cameron in 2015 and 6% more than Cameron in 2010. She even won more seats than Cameron in 2010, and he was not expected to go. The difference is that Labour jumped up a lot due to the Brexit vote motivating a lot of young people to come out that the polling companies did not expect. But May's 42% is a very good level for the Conservatives to be on, and they could have a lot further to fall if they agreed a deal that upset their core support on immigration. Once Labour's youth surge falls away, and it always does in every democracy I've seen, the Tories will be in a commanding position. They should not allow Labour and Osborne's allies in the media to pursue his grudge at the cost of the party.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....

    The simple solution to that, of course, is to give UK citizens more rights.

    Decided by a body we are no longer a member of......you're onto a winner there!

    Nope - the UK Parliament is perfectly capable of doing it.

    Labour should put it in their manifesto.....

    They should. And so should the Tories and all other parties.

    You don't believe in the electorate being given a choice?

    Eh? There is plenty of stuff that all the parties agree on.

    That there should be no income criteria for bringing foreign spouses into the UK?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    nunu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    Surprised to see Finland with such a high level of youth unemployment?
    No, because it's application to join Scandinavia was rejected.....
    France's level of youth unemployment is terrible? Presumably this is the main reason why younger voters were tempted by Le Pen?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    He did, but let's not canonise him. The French system hugely rewards moderate candidates through the 2nd preference system, and there were huge abstentions in the parliamentary elections, where he barely got 40% turnout.

    At least in the UK we got a GE with a very high turnout of almost 70%.

    The people who turned out voted for him.

    A slightly pointless truism.
    We should do that thing lefty's do and say En Marche only got X% of the whole electorate whether they voted or not....
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    You mean like Francois Hollande did ?

    He was someone else we were told would buoy up an increasingly self-confident Europe. Not to mention end austerity and reform France.

    How did that turn out ?

    What do they say about Presidents of the fifth Republic ? That each is worse than the previous one.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    CD13 said:

    Mr Woolie,

    Having hundreds of Corbynistas canvassing houses and shouting at the occupants would probably guarantee a landslide - to the Tories.

    That's somewhat my point. His support is in the wrong demographic for electioneering. It makes his job more difficult.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    Anyone on PB using a Virgin Super Hub router?

    There is a security issue:

    http://www.which.co.uk/news/2017/06/virgin-urges-super-hub-2-password-change/#?intcmp=HP.hero.small.2.a.wcunews.virginmediahub2.jun23

    I have to say, despite being a techie, I didn't quite follow what they are saying. The Telegraph article on it is even worse. They seem to be confusing wifi password and the router's admin password. Which one did they break?

    I don't have Virgin - I have BT. But the same issue of default passwords might apply.

    I don't see the issue with the wifi password. The hacker would have to be within, say 100m, of your router to be able to use the wifi password on your wifi. Although I believe there may be sophisticated ariels that allow access up to 1km, but even so - nobody from Russia is going to be logging onto my home wifi.

    Have I missed something?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all, on the first anniversary of an historic day in Britain's history!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/745787573952458752
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398

    Mr. NorthWales, indeed, but a single incident involving one pillock and a small audience can't be considered a statistically balanced sample.

    An awful lot of people are supporting Corbyn. Some are hard left, others simply unfamiliar with basic economics and lacking any grasp of history so recent it's practically current affairs.

    Speaking of such things, any word on Davey yet? He and Cable are 3/1.36 or so on Ladbrokes now.

    If Davey has any real interest in the leadership it's time he threw his hat into the ring. If the plan is for Swinson to succeed Cable in a few years time it is difficult to see him get a look in next time. Davey's best chance is now.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Politics simply doesn't work that way. Since all now agree that she is definitely going, her authority is diminished.

    If I were an EU leader I would wonder if it was worth bothering with her at all. Because of that she should almost certainly go now. A newly elected leader would be less damaged goods.

    The fact that Theresa May is utterly hopeless doesn't help the UK either, but that's another point.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    edited June 2017
    An Independence Day tribute https://youtu.be/OK376_SIxAQ
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    CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    This was a predictable reaction to any generous offer. As we saw from Blair and Cameron's negotiations, the EU banks any offer, claims it is not enough and then demands more. The only right way to deal is what Chirac used to do and dig your heels in.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Happy up yours Delors day peebees.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Lest we get carried away about how wonderful the EU is & how dire the UK:

    https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/878156463318880256

    Surprised to see Finland with such a high level of youth unemployment?
    No, because it's application to join Scandinavia was rejected.....
    France's level of youth unemployment is terrible? Presumably this is the main reason why younger voters were tempted by Le Pen?
    Saw an interview on sky with a couple of young french people. Far from the stereo-type of being skin heads they were articulate, spoke fluent English and the reasons they gave for voting for here were indistinguishable to why someone might of voted for Corbyn except when prodded by the interviewer about the recent attacks they agreed terrorism was also another reason to vote for her, in terms of "things must change".

    They were not frothing at the mouth about Islam or immigrants, far from it.

    Yes they are anecdotes but I've heard other anecdotes very similar to that. Not saying they were right to vote for just that we musn't paint people with broad brushes.(like Le Pen does....)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    I'm pondering what effect Glastonbury might have on all this. I'm not entirely sure the sight of thousands of middle class kids chanting 'oh Jeremy Corbyn' is going to play well with the working class, the older demographic and against the backdrop of the grim national situation.
    It's got the possibility to be a Sheffield Rally type moment. I say this as someone who is firmly opposed to the Tories now, but I just can't see a positive in this sort of scene for Labour and Corbyn.
    The one key thing he will find with youth political support is that it is very transient and not ever so deep. Not many early twenties will be pounding the doorsteps canvassing twist now and the next GE.
    If the July 1 million man March turns to shit it may all start to smell pretty foul.
    Festivals, Dear boy, festivals.

    Is it possible - and bear with me on this - that no-one beyond a few Corbynista fans will remotely give a shit?
    Perfectly possible. Eyes, however, are very much on matters political at the moment so I tentatively suggest things which mid parliament would just result in minor eyeball rolling might have a slightly more important effect right now.
    Nah. If anything, I would speculate that people are fed up with politics and politicians and wish that they would go away from their telly screens for a bit.

    If Corbyn is vulnerable to anything it's not understanding that, because he lives and breathes politics 24/7.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,710

    Druncker:

    https

    Faisal Islam is Juncker's UK stooge
    Islam is a disgrace.
    Criticising the media/journalists for daring to speak and share the truth.

    The similarities between Leavers and Corbynistas are so blindingly obvious.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    The EU is beaurocracy central. They are lethal in arranged timetabled meetings but terrible off the cuff. The tactic has to be making our plays off the cuff.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    LOL! :D
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,457
    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Also on question time last night I was actually quite impressed with Gina Miller (Wow - did I just write that)
    Agree, she's really quite milfy in person.
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    I am not a Tory and have no particular interest in the Tory leadership except for the betting opportunities it might bring. However I think people should be aware of underestimating May now much as they serially overestimated her up to about 8 weeks ago.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,287

    This was a predictable reaction to any generous offer. As we saw from Blair and Cameron's negotiations, the EU banks any offer, claims it is not enough and then demands more. The only right way to deal is what Chirac used to do and dig your heels in.
    Thanks to May's decision to invoke Article 50, digging our heels in just brings us closer to the cliff edge.
This discussion has been closed.