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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    edited June 2017
    GeoffM said:

    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Also on question time last night I was actually quite impressed with Gina Miller (Wow - did I just write that)
    Agree, she's really quite milfy in person.
    Gina Miller did OK but I thought she struggled when the woman took her task about not revealing your hand before a negotiation.

    The guy for the Tories was also good as well I thought - Actually he might have been the most coherent of everyone.

    SNP guy was pointless (bring back Alex)

    Lab guy was clueless...

    Oborne was... Drunk? :D
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    This was a predictable reaction to any generous offer. As we saw from Blair and Cameron's negotiations, the EU banks any offer, claims it is not enough and then demands more. The only right way to deal is what Chirac used to do and dig your heels in.
    Thanks to May's decision to invoke Article 50, digging our heels in just brings us closer to the cliff edge.
    That's my hope, yes, agree.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,087

    Roger said:

    If I was Qatar I'd be sorely tempted to refer Saudi Arabia to the reply given in Arkell vs Pressdram:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-qatar-diplomatic-feud-latest-al-jazeera-demands-list-uae-egypt-bahrain-a7803981.html

    Very interesting. With any other POTUS the US would see the writing on the wall and realise what dealing with Saudi and the Gulf States looks like. Promoting democracy in the region with those countries as allies looks pretty hollow

    I would be very sad to see Al Jazerra close down - it provides excellent reporting and appears pretty unbiased - no wonder the Saudi's hate it. Bit tricky fighting a war with Qatar when the US has a huge base there.....with the UK in a corner of it.....
    The US would quit Al Udeid in a heartbeat if the Saudis offered to reactivate PSAB.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
    The fight will be over jurisdiction.

    I don't think the UK can accept the ECJ ruling on the rights of citizens residing within its own territory.

    It won't be the money, or Northern Ireland, or the negotiating timetable that will be the sticking point, it will be this.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    GeoffM said:

    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Also on question time last night I was actually quite impressed with Gina Miller (Wow - did I just write that)
    Agree, she's really quite milfy in person.
    In a dominatrix kind of way.

    Each to his own taste.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    The EU is beaurocracy central. They are lethal in arranged timetabled meetings but terrible off the cuff. The tactic has to be making our plays off the cuff.
    I am amazed at the expert negociators of Brussels with their decades of experience in the specialist subject of complex international trade deals didn't see this coming.

    Given I have been told on here that their crack team is made up of Kasparov brain sized trade deal ninjas who would chase our blustering toffs from the field at every turn it's caused me no end of bafflement.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Just catching up with YouGov. The more interesting thing than JC being fave PM (not surprising, given how pisspoor May is) is that the nation is swinging against leaving the Single Market in a big way. I expect this trend to continue. Hard Brexit is - I suspect - dying.

    It's hard to see how it can be sustained - especially if the economy weakens.

    It is increasingly clear that May called the election to get a strong enough mandate to allow her to walk away from talks if necessary and to ride out the ensuing economic shit-storm on the back of a Never Surrender, White Cliffs of Dover wave of patriotism. The failure to secure that mandate has buggered up the UK's entire negotiation strategy. And everyone knows it. Instead, May is facing an increasingly self-confident Europe, buoyed by improving economic data and the arrival of Macron. With the totally unreliable, anti-British Trump sitting in the White House, we picked precisely the wrong time to leave the EU.
    Is that the Macron who has already had multiple cabinet resignations because of sleeze ?

    Yep - the one who just won a huge majority in the Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

    You mean like Francois Hollande did ?

    He was someone else we were told would buoy up an increasingly self-confident Europe. Not to mention end austerity and reform France.

    How did that turn out ?

    What do they say about Presidents of the fifth Republic ? That each is worse than the previous one.

    I think most people (except Ed Miliband) thought that Hollande's plans were unworkable. Merkel rejected them immediately.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    Druncker:

    https

    Faisal Islam is Juncker's UK stooge
    Islam is a disgrace.
    Criticising the media/journalists for daring to speak and share the truth.

    The similarities between Leavers and Corbynistas are so blindingly obvious.
    Piss off. He's not speaking "the truth". He's a one-man 110dB propaganda trumpet for Remain.

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    The EU is beaurocracy central. They are lethal in arranged timetabled meetings but terrible off the cuff. The tactic has to be making our plays off the cuff.

    That's German efficiency for you.
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    Mr. Eagles, but would Osborne stand if the opportunity (to become an MP) arose?

    May will be around for a little while, but if they have any choice MPs won't want her leading them after her less than spectacular effort in 2017.

    He's moved on and realises his political career is over.
    He's certainly writing as though it is.
    Well if you are going to burn your bridges you may as well nuke them...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
    The fight will be over jurisdiction.

    I don't think the UK can accept the ECJ ruling on the rights of citizens residing within its own territory.

    It won't be the money, or Northern Ireland, or the negotiating timetable that will be the sticking point, it will be this.
    Jurisdiction and Northern Ireland coincide as issues since all NI citizens will remain eligible for EU citizenship and the Good Friday Agreement includes provisions for NI's voice to be heard in European institutions.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change

    The EU27 will not reject it. They will welcome it, but say although it is a start it is not enough - that it does not match the protections they are offering to UK citizens. And because May's negotiating hand is so weak there will be compromise and UK citizens will end up with more rights than their government currently wants to give them.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
    The fight will be over jurisdiction.

    I don't think the UK can accept the ECJ ruling on the rights of citizens residing within its own territory.

    It won't be the money, or Northern Ireland, or the negotiating timetable that will be the sticking point, it will be this.
    Jurisdiction and Northern Ireland coincide as issues since all NI citizens will remain eligible for EU citizenship and the Good Friday Agreement includes provisions for NI's voice to be heard in European institutions.
    Northern Ireland is a possible exception, and a very complex one, I grant you.

    If I were a betting man, I'd say a joint UK SC-EU ECJ panel would be the sensible common ground as the territory remains part of the UK.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Jonathan said:

    As far as TM is concerned do not underestimate her. She has made a horlicks of the election but she is ideal for the party right now to deal with Brexit and the fire tragedy and as a party member I do not see anyone either able or willing to challenge her. And no way will I vote for Boris, he is yesterday's candidate

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.



    Last time I saw she had the most votes and most seats and a record vote share.

    She may or may not resign sometime but for now most seem to just want her to get on with Brexit.

    Also on question time last night I was actually quite impressed with Gina Miller (Wow - did I just write that)
    Agree, she's really quite milfy in person.
    In a dominatrix kind of way.

    Each to his own taste.
    That's the public image but socially she's not like that.

    For those who didn't read the relevant thread a few months ago I don't really know her well but I'm a friend of one of her fellow litigants from her original legal challenge. That's how our paths crossed.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Scott_P said:
    Which is also why no deal is not in the EU's interest.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    What will you be doing to celebrate Independence Day Scotty? :D
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    Yep - the EU27 were taken so off guard they published their own proposals a couple of weeks ago.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/pickardje/status/878176370043609089

    TSE's article upthread began with "could". This one has "might".

    Both always mean "won't".
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Currently UK citizens wanting to bring a foreign (non-UK/EU spouse) to the UK have to pass a minimum income threshold to do so.

    EU citizens do not.

    The EU would like this to continue for EU citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/22/supreme-court-backs-minimum-income-rule-for-non-european-spouses
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    Yep - the EU27 were taken so off guard they published their own proposals a couple of weeks ago.

    ...and we didn't randomly cave in.
    *That* is what has taken them by surprise.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    What will you be doing to celebrate Independence Day Scotty? :D

    Laughing at Brexiteers :smile:
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
    The fight will be over jurisdiction.

    I don't think the UK can accept the ECJ ruling on the rights of citizens residing within its own territory.

    It won't be the money, or Northern Ireland, or the negotiating timetable that will be the sticking point, it will be this.

    As you say, the issue will be who gets jurisdiction as the ultimate arbiter of rights enshrined in the new UK/EU agreement. What the EU will want to avoid - quite reasonably so - is for agreed rights to be subsequently legislated away by the UK Parliament or interpreted by the UK courts in a way that is not compatible with the EU27's understanding of the agreement. Likewise, the UK would presumably want to avoid the same thing happening the other way round with regard to UK citizens living in the EU27. Thus, there will be a compromise on this.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    Yep - the EU27 were taken so off guard they published their own proposals a couple of weeks ago.

    Were they as ludicrous as their £100Bn exit payment proposal ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    I assume all Tories will vote against ?
    & DUP abstain.

    How will Labour split ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    Yep - the EU27 were taken so off guard they published their own proposals a couple of weeks ago.

    ...and we didn't randomly cave in.
    *That* is what has taken them by surprise.
    The next round of negotiations will be interesting.

    "So Mr Davis, any idea what your boss will announce to the press later in the week?"
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    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    Didn't know The Donald was even at Glastonbury

    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/878178314174726145
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    William

    Clearly that is the best way forward, attracts widespread public support, and will relieve the economy from crashing out. Several leading Leavers said during the campaign that leaving the Single Market would be an act of a madman. Their words should be repeated back to them at every opportunity.

    The ballot paper made no mention of the SM – so we should take this approach so as to do the best by business and workers while respecting the result of the referendum.

    So sensible an approach is that, that it is inconceivable that our dullard political masters take it.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.

    There are no good options. Changing leader by a contest would take a long time. Changing leader by coronation isn't ideal either. Even if we change leader, we still don't have a majority government, so and new PM would still lack authority and not be able to guarantee delivery of any compromise deal. An election would just add further dealay and confusion, and risks producing either a similar result or an even worse one, perhaps with even less of a chance of producing a stable government, especially since the opposition is the most unsuited to government that we have had since WWII - and also hasn't a coherent Brexit position.

    It's an unholy mess, but it's the mess which voters delivered. The Conservative Party and government will just have to to try to make the best of it for the country. As we are already seeing, the risk of a disastrous and chaotic Brexit have substantially increased because of the lack of a majority. I see my old mate Dick Newby is even threatening that the Lords could crash the whole thing. apparently oblivious to the fact that the only power the Lords have is to produce the most chaotic and hardest Brexit of all:

    Because of the election result, “the Salisbury Convention probably doesn’t apply,” said Dick Newby, leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democrat party in the upper house. Among peers “there’s a large majority that think Brexit is a bad idea,” and so they “could make Theresa May’s Brexit plans more difficult, because one of the things the Lords have is the power of delay, which of course is quite a big power at this point.”

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/6/23/mays-brexit-critics-circle-as-u.k.-parliament-flexes-muscles
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    Yep - the EU27 were taken so off guard they published their own proposals a couple of weeks ago.

    ...and we didn't randomly cave in.
    *That* is what has taken them by surprise.

    There has been no negotiation yet.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What will you be doing to celebrate Independence Day Scotty? :D

    Laughing at Brexiteers :smile:
    We are all Brexiteers now Scotty - even you.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Pulpstar said:

    I assume all Tories will vote against ?
    & DUP abstain.

    How will Labour split ?
    Ken Clarke?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,087

    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.
    How well do you think it's going on a scale of 1-10?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.

    There are no good options. Changing leader by a contest would take a long time.
    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.
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    TonyTony Posts: 159
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Could be wrong , but the most often stated is the ability to bring in a Non UK spouse into the UK. There's an income cut-off point for UK citizens 18K+ , which doesn't apply to EU citizens.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.

    There are no good options. Changing leader by a contest would take a long time.
    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.
    How about an interim leader, an old hand who could steady the ship - maybe Ken Clarke ;-) ?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.
    How well do you think it's going on a scale of 1-10?
    We are about 25 seconds into a 90 minute football match. Both sides have had a throw in.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    If the UK really cared about its relations with countries like New Zealand it would stay in the EU and use our influence to push for the swift conclusion of the comprehensive trade deal currently being worked on. We are no use to anyone for as long as we chose to be fantasy island.

    https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/agreements-under-negotiation/eu-fta/
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jonathan said:

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.

    There are no good options. Changing leader by a contest would take a long time. Changing leader by coronation isn't ideal either. Even if we change leader, we still don't have a majority government, so and new PM would still lack authority and not be able to guarantee delivery of any compromise deal. An election would just add further dealay and confusion, and risks producing either a similar result or an even worse one, perhaps with even less of a chance of producing a stable government, especially since the opposition is the most unsuited to government that we have had since WWII - and also hasn't a coherent Brexit position.

    It's an unholy mess, but it's the mess which voters delivered. The Conservative Party and government will just have to to try to make the best of it for the country. As we are already seeing, the risk of a disastrous and chaotic Brexit have substantially increased because of the lack of a majority. I see my old mate Dick Newby is even threatening that the Lords could crash the whole thing. apparently oblivious to the fact that the only power the Lords have is to produce the most chaotic and hardest Brexit of all:

    Because of the election result, “the Salisbury Convention probably doesn’t apply,” said Dick Newby, leader of the pro-EU Liberal Democrat party in the upper house. Among peers “there’s a large majority that think Brexit is a bad idea,” and so they “could make Theresa May’s Brexit plans more difficult, because one of the things the Lords have is the power of delay, which of course is quite a big power at this point.”

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/6/23/mays-brexit-critics-circle-as-u.k.-parliament-flexes-muscles
    The odd thing about that quote from the leader of the Lib Dems in the House of Lords is that the Lib Dems abandoned the Salisbury Convention in 2005.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    isam said:

    Didn't know The Donald was even at Glastonbury

    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/878178314174726145

    He is simply following the example of the President.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If the UK really cared about its relations with countries like New Zealand it would stay in the EU and use our influence to push for the swift conclusion of the comprehensive trade deal currently being worked on. We are no use to anyone for as long as we chose to be fantasy island.

    https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/agreements-under-negotiation/eu-fta/

    Nah - far better to have our own bespoke deal without all the fudge poured in from the inflexible dated economies of Europe.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    No that's simply the case for some people are disorganised idiots. Only the greatest most desperate fools exchange money at airports...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613

    Hinkley Point deal 'risky and expensive'
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Maybe right for the party, but absolutely not for the country. She carries no weight. She is damaged goods. The EU can safely ignore her knowing that sometime, maybe quite soon, she will be gone.

    For that reason alone she should be gone already. Even, dare I say it, if that is sub-optimal for the Tory party.

    There are no good options. Changing leader by a contest would take a long time.
    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.
    How about an interim leader, an old hand who could steady the ship - maybe Ken Clarke ;-) ?
    What they need to do is appoint a caretaker and fire the gun on a proper leadership election to get someone in place by conference at the latest.

    I doubt Ken Clarke is the man for party reasons, but he certainly has the ability.

    It is bizarre that they are dragging this out. Maybe the moment will be when the QS passes.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017

    TGOHF said:

    The EU seems to have been caught completely on the hop by May's offer to EU citizens - they are scrabbling around and failing to get a common line in response - are we sure Barnier is up to the job ?

    1-0 to the Uk.

    May's offer is almost impossible to reject by the EU - if she wins this the narrative could change
    The fight will be over jurisdiction.

    I don't think the UK can accept the ECJ ruling on the rights of citizens residing within its own territory.

    It won't be the money, or Northern Ireland, or the negotiating timetable that will be the sticking point, it will be this.
    Jurisdiction and Northern Ireland coincide as issues since all NI citizens will remain eligible for EU citizenship and the Good Friday Agreement includes provisions for NI's voice to be heard in European institutions.
    It is a tab complicated.... from the Irish Govt website



    A ) Born in the island of Ireland on or before 31 December 2004: You are entitled to Irish citizenship or you are an Irish citizen

    B ) Born on the island of Ireland on or after 1 January 2005: You are entitled to Irish citizenship if one or both of your parents:

    - Is British or entitled to live in Northern Ireland or the Irish State without restriction on their residency
    - Is a foreign national legally resident in the island of Ireland for 3 out of 4 years immediately prior to your birth
    - Has been granted refugee status in Ireland

    C ) Child of A, born outside the island of Ireland: An Irish citizen

    D ) Child of C and a grandchild of A, born outside the island of Ireland: Entitled to Irish citizenship, but you must first register in the Foreign Births Register

    E ) a child of D and a great-grandchild of A, born outside the island of Ireland: Entitled to Irish citizenship, by having your birth registered in the Foreign Births Register, but only if your parent D had registered by the time of your birth.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.

    The UK cannot have the same chance to make the kinds of decisions that the Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis do because we start from a completely different place. Their security needs are different, their trading patterns are different, their foreign policy needs are different, their manpower needs are different, and so on. Our choices from here on in will be predicated ion the fact that we have left the EU and we will need to find ways to make up the economic losses that has caused. No other country in the world faces that challenge.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    TGOHF said:

    If the UK really cared about its relations with countries like New Zealand it would stay in the EU and use our influence to push for the swift conclusion of the comprehensive trade deal currently being worked on. We are no use to anyone for as long as we chose to be fantasy island.

    https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/agreements-under-negotiation/eu-fta/

    Nah - far better to have our own bespoke deal without all the fudge poured in from the inflexible dated economies of Europe.
    Better for whom? The EU is a much bigger prize for New Zealand and we will now be incapable of influencing the outcome for the benefit of our 'kith and kin'.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,526
    Wow, he was royally ripped off. The exchange rate is currently 1.24 SF to the £.

    I suppose he can just be philosophical about it.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613

    Hinkley Point deal 'risky and expensive'

    Another Osborne success
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32818c1a-5783-11e7-869c-518339a19c7c
    "Foreign investors could sue UK for billions over Brexit"

    What is it with sueing when punts go wrong

    Can I sue the Tories for my lost Gower bet at the GE ? Or is "business" different...
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32818c1a-5783-11e7-869c-518339a19c7c
    "Foreign investors could sue UK for billions over Brexit"

    We need to know what May promised to Nissan.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32818c1a-5783-11e7-869c-518339a19c7c
    "Foreign investors could sue UK for billions over Brexit"

    What is it with sueing when punts go wrong

    Can I sue the Tories for my lost Gower bet at the GE ? Or is "business" different...

    it's the usual "could"

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Currently UK citizens wanting to bring a foreign (non-UK/EU spouse) to the UK have to pass a minimum income threshold to do so.

    EU citizens do not.

    The EU would like this to continue for EU citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/22/supreme-court-backs-minimum-income-rule-for-non-european-spouses
    I don't think that's right, and I couldn't find it in the article you linked. The same rules apply whether you're a UK citizen or a non-UK EU citizen. The wrinkle is that you can get around the UK's evil wankery by *living elsewhere in the EU with the foreign spouse first*. However, UK citizens can do this too, at least at the moment.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,710
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/32818c1a-5783-11e7-869c-518339a19c7c
    "Foreign investors could sue UK for billions over Brexit"

    What is it with sueing when punts go wrong

    Can I sue the Tories for my lost Gower bet at the GE ? Or is "business" different...


    Britain has 95 bilateral investment treaties, including with Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Russia, under which companies could bring their cases before arbitration tribunals.

    The treaties protect investors from each state in the territory of the other, guaranteeing “fair and equitable treatment”. Some case law suggests that a massive change of regulatory regime counts as a denial of fair treatment. If the UK lost access to the EU single market as a result of Brexit, some lawyers argue, this would frustrate foreign companies’ legitimate expectation of unencumbered trade into the EU.....

    ...When Spain ripped up its subsidy regime for renewable energy generation in 2013, its government was hit with cases from investors. Companies from Germany to Canada to Abu Dhabi had piled in to take advantage of the favourable policy environment and, when the law changed, they wanted compensation. Many lost their cases, but in May two affiliated companies from Britain and Luxembourg won an award of €128 million. Further claims have still to be decided.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Incidentally, if Conservative-run Kensington and Chelsea Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put cladding which turned out to be lethal on a tower block is evidence of heartless Tories cutting corners and showing wilful disregard for the safety of the poor, and proof of the irresponsibility of a Conservative government in terms of fire regulations, what is the political lesson to be drawn from Labour-run Camden Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put similar cladding on their tower blocks under a Labour government?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    Cor the corbynistas must be praying the Maidenhead one goes up

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/878184763344814081
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,526
    May's offer, AIUI, is related to EU citizens who were here in June and indeed had been for 5 years. They would have the right to remain indefinitely.

    What the EU seem to be looking for is additional rights for EU citizens going forward. I cannot see any obvious upsides about agreeing that at the moment. It may well be that EU citizens end up with enhanced rights of access going forward, either a fast track for those coming with a job or with a spouse, but that should be a matter to be considered in the context of trade which is next year (apparently).

    The priority now is to give assurance to both UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens here that their existing rights of residence are going to be protected so that they can get on with their lives. I would hope this would be agreed very quickly.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited June 2017
    I wonder sometimes if there's ANY situation where the answer for remainers is not "stay in the EU"
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.

    The UK cannot have the same chance to make the kinds of decisions that the Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis do because we start from a completely different place. Their security needs are different, their trading patterns are different, their foreign policy needs are different, their manpower needs are different, and so on. Our choices from here on in will be predicated ion the fact that we have left the EU and we will need to find ways to make up the economic losses that has caused. No other country in the world faces that challenge.

    We will have unique challenges......just like every other independent country ever.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    "He accused the Scottish government of "grandstanding" publicly but said he hoped talks with ministers had entered a "a more mature phase".

    Nicola has been forced to wind her neck in.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40379344
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    Incidentally, if Conservative-run Kensington and Chelsea Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put cladding which turned out to be lethal on a tower block is evidence of heartless Tories cutting corners and showing wilful disregard for the safety of the poor, and proof of the irresponsibility of a Conservative government in terms of fire regulations, what is the political lesson to be drawn from Labour-run Camden Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put similar cladding on their tower blocks under a Labour government?

    I had a feeling it would come out that Labour run councils also have done the same and that Labour would suddenly become a lot more quiet on the subject.

    You would think it could damage Labour after their initial outrage and political shit stirring could be seen as point scoring out of a tragedy. But forget Teflon Tony I think the man made of Teflon is Saint Jezzbollah.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Incidentally, if Conservative-run Kensington and Chelsea Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put cladding which turned out to be lethal on a tower block is evidence of heartless Tories cutting corners and showing wilful disregard for the safety of the poor, and proof of the irresponsibility of a Conservative government in terms of fire regulations, what is the political lesson to be drawn from Labour-run Camden Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put similar cladding on their tower blocks under a Labour government?

    Good= |Thanks to saint Jez

    Bad= New Labour policy.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Incidentally, if Conservative-run Kensington and Chelsea Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put cladding which turned out to be lethal on a tower block is evidence of heartless Tories cutting corners and showing wilful disregard for the safety of the poor, and proof of the irresponsibility of a Conservative government in terms of fire regulations, what is the political lesson to be drawn from Labour-run Camden Council employing Rydon and Harley Facades to put similar cladding on their tower blocks under a Labour government?

    The lesson is that even a caring, loving and socially aware Labour Council can be duped by the evil capitalist system into acts of potential harm.

    Capitalism must go! Vote Corbyn for a warm fuzzy feeling!!!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Blue_rog said:

    I wonder sometimes if there's ANY situation where the answer for remainers is not "stay in the EU"

    If the Brexiteers can name a single problem caused by leaving, that wouldn't be fixed by remaining, please let us know...
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    edited June 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Currently UK citizens wanting to bring a foreign (non-UK/EU spouse) to the UK have to pass a minimum income threshold to do so.

    EU citizens do not.

    The EU would like this to continue for EU citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/22/supreme-court-backs-minimum-income-rule-for-non-european-spouses
    I don't think that's right, and I couldn't find it in the article you linked. The same rules apply whether you're a UK citizen or a non-UK EU citizen. The wrinkle is that you can get around the UK's evil wankery by *living elsewhere in the EU with the foreign spouse first*. However, UK citizens can do this too, at least at the moment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit

    The then prime minister added: “At the moment, if a British citizen wants to bring, say, a South American partner to the UK, then we ask for proof that they meet an income threshold and can speak English. But EU law means we cannot apply these tests to EU migrants. Their partners can just come straight into our country without any proper controls at all.”
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I wonder sometimes if there's ANY situation where the answer for remainers is not "stay in the EU"

    If the Brexiteers can name a single problem caused by leaving, that wouldn't be fixed by remaining, please let us know...
    Overly strong pound after all the negotiations are finished and we;ve left :)

    Not being able to blame Europe for failed policies
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    You know, the more I think about it, the less sure I am. The Queens Speech will definitely be carried by at least 13 votes and probably by 20 or so (various absences among the opposition parties - the Tories will be 10 lined whip!).

    After that, little happens in Parliament; the Tory muppets all bugga off and chill-out for the long summer break. So she survives until the autumn....then party conference... and odds on are that she copes sufficiently (some remorse, mea culpa...but I have learned the lessons etc).

    And without an obvious credible and more electable successor, on she jolly well goes, quite conceivably, depending on the economy, the vicissitudes of the polls, local elections etc etc. beyond Brexit 2019.

    Loads and loads of ifs and pitfalls, I grant you, but it is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
  • Options
    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    isam said:
    Incitement to riot - isn't that a criminal offence?

    I do hope he gets to help the police with their enquiries later.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'd moan about the inevitability that every 23 June from now on will be a Pavlovian trigger to make all the Leavers batshit mental for the day, but since they spend the rest of the year apparently sincerely believing that the EU is the whore of Babylon, I can't honestly say there's really all that much difference.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    eek said:

    No that's simply the case for some people are disorganised idiots. Only the greatest most desperate fools exchange money at airports...
    NOTHING TO SEE HERE!!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    You know, the more I think about it, the less sure I am. The Queens Speech will definitely be carried by at least 13 votes and probably by 20 or so (various absences among the opposition parties - the Tories will be 10 lined whip!).

    After that, little happens in Parliament; the Tory muppets all bugga off and chill-out for the long summer break. So she survives until the autumn....then party conference... and odds on are that she copes sufficiently (some remorse, mea culpa...but I have learned the lessons etc).

    And without an obvious credible and more electable successor, on she jolly well goes, quite conceivably, depending on the economy, the vicissitudes of the polls, local elections etc etc. beyond Brexit 2019.

    Loads and loads of ifs and pitfalls, I grant you, but it is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
    Agree with everything apart from staying on until the election, she just is an awful campaigner.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613

    Hinkley Point deal 'risky and expensive'

    Another Osborne success
    May had the chance to ditch it and decided against.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/14/theresa-may-conditional-approval-hinkley-point-c-nuclear-power-station
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    JohnO said:

    You know, the more I think about it, the less sure I am. The Queens Speech will definitely be carried by at least 13 votes and probably by 20 or so (various absences among the opposition parties - the Tories will be 10 lined whip!).

    After that, little happens in Parliament; the Tory muppets all bugga off and chill-out for the long summer break. So she survives until the autumn....then party conference... and odds on are that she copes sufficiently (some remorse, mea culpa...but I have learned the lessons etc).

    And without an obvious credible and more electable successor, on she jolly well goes, quite conceivably, depending on the economy, the vicissitudes of the polls, local elections etc etc. beyond Brexit 2019.

    Loads and loads of ifs and pitfalls, I grant you, but it is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!

    Not impossible, but I think the most likely scenario is that she remains until 2019, delivers Brexit, and then stands down. Of course, events might intervene to make that impossible.

    We also shouldn't forget that the problems within Labour haven't gone away, so events might not intervene on only side of the equation..
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    It is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
    LOL.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,584
    DanSmith said:
    Let's hope all the paperwork hasn't been destroyed.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856
    nunu said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    You know, the more I think about it, the less sure I am. The Queens Speech will definitely be carried by at least 13 votes and probably by 20 or so (various absences among the opposition parties - the Tories will be 10 lined whip!).

    After that, little happens in Parliament; the Tory muppets all bugga off and chill-out for the long summer break. So she survives until the autumn....then party conference... and odds on are that she copes sufficiently (some remorse, mea culpa...but I have learned the lessons etc).

    And without an obvious credible and more electable successor, on she jolly well goes, quite conceivably, depending on the economy, the vicissitudes of the polls, local elections etc etc. beyond Brexit 2019.

    Loads and loads of ifs and pitfalls, I grant you, but it is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
    Agree with everything apart from staying on until the election, she just is an awful campaigner.
    Yes, I think May will survive longer than many expect, but will not fight another GE.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Currently UK citizens wanting to bring a foreign (non-UK/EU spouse) to the UK have to pass a minimum income threshold to do so.

    EU citizens do not.

    The EU would like this to continue for EU citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/22/supreme-court-backs-minimum-income-rule-for-non-european-spouses
    Thanks for that. That's
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Not impossible, but I think the most likely scenario is that she remains until 2019, delivers Brexit, and then stands down.

    Brexit will not be "delivered" in 2019
  • Options
    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613

    Hinkley Point deal 'risky and expensive'

    Another Osborne success
    The boy George is trying to out do Brown as the worst Chancellor.

    He's given us HS2, a massively over priced Hinkley Point power deal, and austerity cuts that could well have influenced the outcome at Grenfell. Plus he played a key role in the Foxtrot Up Remain campaign. Coupled with editorials that helped Corbyn over the line in marginal seats in London, and his continued spoiled child sniping that drives the meme against May, and it's hard to tell the difference.

  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    It is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
    LOL.
    He who laughs last - and I'm just smiling at present - laughs loudest.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    You are already in a de facto leadership election. By hesitating you're only stretching it out.

    To an extent, yes. Certainly Mrs May's days are numbered.
    You know, the more I think about it, the less sure I am. The Queens Speech will definitely be carried by at least 13 votes and probably by 20 or so (various absences among the opposition parties - the Tories will be 10 lined whip!).

    After that, little happens in Parliament; the Tory muppets all bugga off and chill-out for the long summer break. So she survives until the autumn....then party conference... and odds on are that she copes sufficiently (some remorse, mea culpa...but I have learned the lessons etc).

    And without an obvious credible and more electable successor, on she jolly well goes, quite conceivably, depending on the economy, the vicissitudes of the polls, local elections etc etc. beyond Brexit 2019.

    Loads and loads of ifs and pitfalls, I grant you, but it is by no means unimaginable that Mrs May could be leading the party into the 2022 election. And who knows, even win it!
    Indeed. It's unlikely, but things can change. And in the future where things are going very badly, plenty of would-be successors might prefer to take over after a GE rather than before it. The middlingly bad but recoverable situation is the one where she'll almost certainly go.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    nunu said:

    Nicola has been forced to wind her neck in.

    She's having a bad week

    @davidtorrance: Struck me at today's #FMQs that Sturgeon finds herself fire-fighting on 6 different fronts: #Brexit, #indyref2, domestic record 1/3

    @davidtorrance: From the left (Corbyn), the right (Davidson) and, unusually, internal criticism. One or two of those might be manageable, not all six 2/3

    @davidtorrance: Hereafter incidents like tail docking vote will highlight weakness/contradictions that have always been there, but now much more visibly 3/3

    Indeed...

    @IrvineWelsh: 'Nicky Sturgeon Puppy surgeon' has a 'Margaret Thatcher Milk Snatcher' ring to it. Own goals don't come any bigger or unnecessary.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_P said:

    Not impossible, but I think the most likely scenario is that she remains until 2019, delivers Brexit, and then stands down.

    Brexit will not be "delivered" in 2019
    It will, for better or worse.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,288
    Scott_P said:

    Not impossible, but I think the most likely scenario is that she remains until 2019, delivers Brexit, and then stands down.

    Brexit will not be "delivered" in 2019
    Unless it's a stillbirth.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    There's no semblance of any balance whatsoever in his Brexit coverage.

    How do you "balance" reporting of a train wreck?

    "Yes, it's a catastrophe, but those passengers who survive are now free to make their own choice of alternative transport in the future..."
    It's neither a catastrophe, nor a train wreck. That's just hyperbolic rhetoric.

    Those of us who are not grateful serfs welcome the chance for the UK to make the same kind of decisions over its future that Canada, Australia and New Zealand enjoy.

    Remainers love him because he power-charges their confirmation bias.

    To the max.

    The UK cannot have the same chance to make the kinds of decisions that the Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis do because we start from a completely different place. Their security needs are different, their trading patterns are different, their foreign policy needs are different, their manpower needs are different, and so on. Our choices from here on in will be predicated ion the fact that we have left the EU and we will need to find ways to make up the economic losses that has caused. No other country in the world faces that challenge.

    We will have unique challenges......just like every other independent country ever.

    Yes - we will have to mitigate the effects of the harm we inflict on ourselves by leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. And every country in the world will know this. That's something that no other nation in the world has to worry about when it is looking to do trade deals. That's our unique challenge.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,072
    Scott_P said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I wonder sometimes if there's ANY situation where the answer for remainers is not "stay in the EU"

    If the Brexiteers can name a single problem caused by leaving, that wouldn't be fixed by remaining, please let us know...
    Would you

    I'd moan about the inevitability that every 23 June from now on will be a Pavlovian trigger to make all the Leavers batshit mental for the day, but since they spend the rest of the year apparently sincerely believing that the EU is the whore of Babylon, I can't honestly say there's really all that much difference.

    Happy Independence Day mate :smile:
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    edited June 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Observer, news last night a condition of May's offer was reciprocity for British citizens in the EU...

    the final settlement is almost certain to be much more favourable to British citizens than the one their government has put on the table.
    Which would have EU citizens having greater rights in the UK than UK citizens. Good luck selling that on the doorstep....
    What additional right would that have (in the UK)?

    (Not being an arse, genuinely interested.)
    Currently UK citizens wanting to bring a foreign (non-UK/EU spouse) to the UK have to pass a minimum income threshold to do so.

    EU citizens do not.

    The EU would like this to continue for EU citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/feb/22/supreme-court-backs-minimum-income-rule-for-non-european-spouses
    I don't think that's right, and I couldn't find it in the article you linked. The same rules apply whether you're a UK citizen or a non-UK EU citizen. The wrinkle is that you can get around the UK's evil wankery by *living elsewhere in the EU with the foreign spouse first*. However, UK citizens can do this too, at least at the moment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit

    The then prime minister added: “At the moment, if a British citizen wants to bring, say, a South American partner to the UK, then we ask for proof that they meet an income threshold and can speak English. But EU law means we cannot apply these tests to EU migrants. Their partners can just come straight into our country without any proper controls at all.”
    As a general rule you shouldn't believe things the Prime Minister says, because she's full of shit. However, in this case I think what she's saying is technically correct and matches what I'm saying. The people they can't apply these tests to are people *migrating from the EU*.

    This includes UK citizens migrating from the EU, and quite a few UK citizens with non-EU spouses have been moving to another EU country for a while precisely to get through this loophole.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    edited June 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40372613

    Hinkley Point deal 'risky and expensive'

    Another Osborne success
    The boy George is trying to out do Brown as the worst Chancellor.

    He's given us HS2, a massively over priced Hinkley Point power deal, and austerity cuts that could well have influenced the outcome at Grenfell. Plus he played a key role in the Foxtrot Up Remain campaign. Coupled with editorials that helped Corbyn over the line in marginal seats in London, and his continued spoiled child sniping that drives the meme against May, and it's hard to tell the difference.

    Grenfell was NOT austerity related. See R Nabavi's earlier post.
    The rest is fair comment though.
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