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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories
The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above.
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"If she had secured the post by going through the Tory members ballot her campaigning skills would have been enhanced and she’d have been better able to cope with the scrutiny of a general election campaign."
Or more likely her flakeyness would have been exposed and the Tory party would have had to choose between two rubbish candidates.
If the Tories don't replace May soon they could find that they go into the next election with her still as PM.
Labour's priority is to shift from "first class opposition" to "Government in waiting". That's the reason why we keep talking about being ready to take power, not because we expect it to happen very soon, but to get everyone used to the idea. I expect fairly statesmanlike opposition - e.g. we might well accept the Repeal Bill, which seems a natural consequence to the referendum outcome, and then get stuck into the detail of the 8 other Bills.
The only advantage I can see her remaining PM for a few more years is for allowing Osborne to become an MP once more and thus her replacement.
May’s gender is also a reason to think twice before writing her off or predicting she’ll quit. She is fantastically tough, as any woman who has reached her level in politics must be. By tough, I mean resilient, persistent, undeterred by rejection and criticism and abuse. All politicians get those, but it’s still worse for women – and it used to be much, much worse. In more than 20 years dealing with politicians of all sorts, the toughest I’ve ever met remains Harriet Harman, whose dauntless ability to shrug off abuse and rejection and keep powering on is close to awe-inspiring. There are mountain ranges with less resilience than ‘Harriet Harperson’.
May hasn’t quite had Harman’s brutally gruelling history, but she too came up the hard way – because until recently, there was no other way for women to make the political ascent. She entered the Commons in 1997, the nadir of modern Conservative fortunes. Her parliamentary career began in failure and ignominy. It’s also worth noting that the 1997 election returned just 120 female MPs, and just 13 of them were Tories. Will someone who has climbed from there to the peak, who has crawled over broken glass to reach her goal, really walk away because the job is difficult and you’ve made mistakes and people are saying hard words about you? I have my doubts."
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/jeremy-corbyn-can-rise-depths-cant-theresa-may/
That seems to me to describe the situation perfectly.
It pains me so much, the hard work of the last decade plus has been undone in weeks by Mrs May.
Care to dig out Osborne's ratings......?
I think the Tories made a serious mistake in not pushing her out straight away but now we have to see if she can still govern, albeit in a nominal, much more collegiate style than she did in her first year. Now that the negotiations have started we really need to just get on. Its sub optimal but there we are.
I think they'll be higher than May's.
May will be around for a little while, but if they have any choice MPs won't want her leading them after her less than spectacular effort in 2017.
Though I can see him serving in a national emergency.
Being PM is pretty damned cool for any politician, so I really doubt if May intends to step down if she isn't forced out. Because it's not clear that it will benefit the party to do it, she's being tolerated and I think she'lll struggle on until some decisive disaster - whether in the negotiations or som really horrible by-elections - intervenes.
So, she stays.
Meanwhile, Hammond is clearly positioning himself as the King across the water.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878028076097187840
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878025508394369024
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/878006376546660353
The only upside for them is that Labour was in the same situation just a month ago. They still don't have a leader (in the classical sense), they're rudderless, and although the mutiny has ended, it remains to be seen how long the mutineers will remain silent.
The only 'king across the water' I can see is Osborne - and that's not so much the English Channel as the Atlantic Ocean
Whoever succeeds her will be walking back into the world of the 1990`s huge anti tory bias.Neither talented salesmen like Hague or Major were able to counter it because they were not offering an attractive enough product.
The Tories should look for a new leader who is prepared to argue for contrarian causes that might have a sizeable audience.Climate Scepticism, reducing foreign aid and institutional political correctness are obvious ones.They are contrarian causes because the establishment appears to buy into lock,stock and barrel manmade clime change,foreign aid and PC .There is a sizeable section of the public though who do not
That suits Labour fine. Corbyn must think every day is Christmas Day.
Pretending that May is a decent Prime Minister is necessary for a career in the Conservative party ?
Not a great message for the Tories.
If they'd got them all this time round, they'd have had an effective working majority.
No appetite for another election from a majority of MPs - she may be around for a while yet.
They just chose not to fight on it.
Happy Independence Day!
So that'd have been 324 seats then. Two short of an absolute majority, and an effective of 10.
Enough to pass Conservative budgets, and no need to dance with the DUP.
It's the only Tory to have won a majority in the last 25 years.
She thinks so too. The question is whether she picked the right person.
If she did, the tip to back the First Secretary of State as next leader will come good.
They both look a bit daft to have buggered off quite so quickly. I appreciate they didn't think it possible May would bugger up an election like she did, but that too points to complacency and want of judgement.
Brexit will overhang the Tories for a generation; the modern day Corn Laws or Irish Home Rule.
In which case, it wouldn't look so clever.
Being based in the metropolis I don't recognise the double standards or the abuse you describe. Has Harriet Harman been more abused than say Tony Blair? Perhaps you just feel women should have more protection?
Not being a woman I'm not too aware of the struggles they might have had to get on the first rung of the ladder but having got onto it I don't believe their career paths are more difficult in any way. In fact probably the opposite.
When I went for my first job as an assistant to a celebrated female photographer I was asked whether I had a problem working for a woman. That was mid 70's. Now the question would be ridiculous.
The rise of Labour under a hard-left leader shows that the Conservatives are not taking massive numbers of the country with them. An election fought on: "Urgh! Look at the man leading the opposition!" is not a positive reason to vote for them.
If they continue in that manner then they'll get thrashed in the next election. Yes, Labour's campaign was filled with lots of nasty 'Tories are evil baby-eaters', but they also had lots of positive sweeties for people who feel that they've been left behind. Yes, it may be unaffordable. Yes, it may be disastrous for the country in the long term. But at least someone is offering them something positive for them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/40378783
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-qatar-diplomatic-feud-latest-al-jazeera-demands-list-uae-egypt-bahrain-a7803981.html
We may never know if May had a wobble on Friday morning and considered resigning - I suspect hubby had a word as well. There were "reports" and "rumours" she was going to do a Cameron and resign around breakfast time (mine, not yours).
If she won't go and there's no mechanism to force a challenge, what then ? Is there still an annual election for the Conservative leader among the MPs ? Will we see someone put themselves up as the proverbial "stalking horse" ?
Maybe, maybe not - the Conservatives know well the old adage if you don't hang together you'll all hang separately but they are also entirely ruthless if a leader looks like a loser (they were with Thatcher in 1990, they tried to be with Major in 1995 and made matters worse).
How bad would things have to get before there was a move against May ? The obvious sign would be clear evidence the Party would do much better with another leader (Johnson) but the other sign would be the attrition of the grass roots. There are not far off 9000 Conservative Councillors - the Party has enjoyed years of strong local results. It can afford to take a few hits in the next few years - I suspect the 600 or so London Conservatives may be reduced next year.
It's no coincidence the 1995 challenge to Major followed a set of elections when the Conservatives lost 2000 Councillors in a single night. The local contests in 2019 and 2020 may not be pleasant either and the counties come back round in 2021 when the Conservatives will be defending a high base.
' Apart from London with a net outflow of 10.8 per 1,000 population (mid-2015), all other regions, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland had net inflows, with the highest rate in the South West (5.5 per 1,000 population (mid-2015)).
Previous years’ internal migration estimates show that this general pattern of a large net outflow from London and a large net inflow to other parts of southern and eastern England has existed for a number of years. '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/latest#moves-between-local-authorities-in-england-and-wales-similar-to-last-year
It seems that many more Londoners prefer to move elsewhere in Britain than the other way around - this helps to explain why Conservative electoral results in London have been repeatedly worse than predicted over the last decade.
The weather is shit, too.
Galloway is tweeting about the inevitability of war.....
A big scandal here this week about holes in the barbed wire border fence which keeps the dagos out.
Another is that it's leaked that the UK has agreed a €100bn exit bill, and Theresa is toppeled by her backbenchers.
widen the choice. If they had not then in all likelyhood the referendum result would have been different
and May would not be PM and there wouldntbean election until 2019. Which may have resulted in a labour
win depending on what happened with UKIP.
So London's population is growing rapidly. But within that there is some serious churn going on too.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-british-people-have-turned-against-a-hard-brexit-2017-6
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it is taking "enforcement action" against a number of online bookies - which it is refusing to identify at this stage - claiming punters are not getting a fair deal and companies are holding on to people's money.
It comes amid an ongoing investigation into the £4.5bn sector following allegations that "confusing and unclear" terms and conditions - or mistakes - were being cited for cutting winnings.
http://news.sky.com/story/online-bookies-face-enforcement-action-10924461