One of my favourite political quotes was a very simple one from Jim Callaghan in the late 1970s: "If everyone's a special case, no-one's a special case".
No one has helped the leave campaign more than Gina Miller. Her shady backers and disregard for democracy are there for all to see. I would have her on QT every week if I could.
I think you'll find that the Leave campaign ended before Gina Miller began.
No one has helped the leave campaign more than Gina Miller. Her shady backers and disregard for democracy are there for all to see. I would have her on QT every week if I could.
I think you'll find that the Leave campaign ended before Gina Miller began.
The Commission's report found that EU migrants were less likely to be non-active than British nationals. While 30% of EU nationals in the UK are non-active, 43% of British nationals are likewise (although, as the OBR has pointed out, this may owe much to the age structure of immigrants, who are more likely to be of working age when they arrive on these shores). Similarly, whereas 77% of working-age EU nationals were employed, 68% of British nationals in the same age bracket could say the same.
No one has helped the leave campaign more than Gina Miller. Her shady backers and disregard for democracy are there for all to see. I would have her on QT every week if I could.
I think you'll find that the Leave campaign ended before Gina Miller began.
The latest incarnation of the Leave campaign 'Change Britain' has given up. They were supposed to begin campaigning after the election but there's not been a word from them.
Portillo not a fan of May, i think it's safe to say! Neil's reasonable suggestion that May might improve a bit over the next few months met with stony silence.
I think Theresa May has grabbed the initiative on the EU citizens and caught the EU on the hop
Why couldn't she be bold and make it a unilateral offer
For the same reason that has applied for the last year: a UK PM cannot hang out to dry British citizens living in the EU27.
That's exactly what she's doing. She is proposing the have fewer rights than they do now.
And fewer rights than the EU is proposing to offer, assuming May wants her terms to be reciprocal.
Yep - the EU27 are offering a far more generous package to British citizens than the UK government is.
The most important difference I can see is that the EU wants anyone who has previously exercised their right to live or work in the UK/EU to maintain that right indefinitely whereas the UK wants to restrict it to people who are resident on the cut off day. There's a massive gulf between the positions.
Hardcore Leavers won't stand for that. They need and want everyone to be equally immiserated.
I think Theresa May has grabbed the initiative on the EU citizens and caught the EU on the hop
Why couldn't she be bold and make it a unilateral offer
For the same reason that has applied for the last year: a UK PM cannot hang out to dry British citizens living in the EU27.
That's exactly what she's doing. She is proposing the have fewer rights than they do now.
And fewer rights than the EU is proposing to offer, assuming May wants her terms to be reciprocal.
Yep - the EU27 are offering a far more generous package to British citizens than the UK government is.
The most important difference I can see is that the EU wants anyone who has previously exercised their right to live or work in the UK/EU to maintain that right indefinitely whereas the UK wants to restrict it to people who are resident on the cut off day. There's a massive gulf between the positions.
Hardcore Leavers won't stand for that. They need and want everyone to be equally immiserated.
Bit of a difference though in 3.2 million EU citizens here to 9 hundred thousand brits in the EU.
Wonder why they've only released the 'Best PM' data.....
They haven't. They're also revealed Brexit data that shows 'wrong to leave' is now ahead and 58% of people want to prioritise the economy over controlling immigration.
Wonder why they've only released the 'Best PM' data.....
They haven't. They're also revealed Brexit data that shows 'wrong to leave' is now ahead and 58% of people want to prioritise the economy over controlling immigration.
But they haven't released the 'Headline' voting intention numbers?
Edit - and I see you join OGH in believing that a 1 point difference is statistically significant....
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
It's basically a consequence of the tory party aping Farage.
There is a flipside though - if the sane tory party cut themselves loose from the nutters who currently run the show, they have a chance of a majority.
Not likely to happen, imo. Since 2014 the wealthy xenophobic pensioners wing of the party have wrestled back control and they ain't letting go.
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
It's basically a consequence of the tory party aping Farage.
There is a flipside though - if the sane tory party cut themselves loose from the nutters who currently run the show, they have a chance of a majority.
Not likely to happen, imo. Since 2014 the wealthy xenophobic pensioners wing of the party have wrestled back control and they ain't letting go.
The same pensioner wing who wanted to clobber pensioners at the last election?
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
It's basically a consequence of the tory party aping Farage.
There is a flipside though - if the sane tory party cut themselves loose from the nutters who currently run the show, they have a chance of a majority.
Not likely to happen, imo. Since 2014 the wealthy xenophobic pensioners wing of the party have wrestled back control and they ain't letting go.
The same pensioner wing who wanted to clobber pensioners at the last election?
The same pensioner wing who forced their leader to u-turn on a key manifesto pledge for the first time in any election campaign ever and have now elbowed everything they don't like out of her queens speech.
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
It's basically a consequence of the tory party aping Farage.
There is a flipside though - if the sane tory party cut themselves loose from the nutters who currently run the show, they have a chance of a majority.
Not likely to happen, imo. Since 2014 the wealthy xenophobic pensioners wing of the party have wrestled back control and they ain't letting go.
The same pensioner wing who wanted to clobber pensioners at the last election?
The same pensioner wing who forced their leader to u-turn on a key manifesto pledge for the first time in any election campaign ever and have now elbowed everything they don't like out of her queens speech.
Yes, that wing of the tory party.
This is always how it ends for the conservatives.
They never learn.
I thought the cap actually benifitted middle class middle age people who stood to inherit. As for the Queen's speech, that's hardly surprising. They didn't win a majority. Remind me again about Labour's policies on the triple lock and WFA for millionaire pensioners.
My mum who is a political weathervane ealier said "I'll be furious if they don't reduce immigration" in relation to E.U FoM. Just becuse it wasn't an isssue at this GE doesn't mean it isn't a salient issue for many. If Farage becomes leader again it will be an important issue once again.
Oh and that YouGoV poll showing people care more about trade than immigration.....be careful-the way you ask the question has a huge impact on the response.
My mum who is a political weathervane ealier said "I'll be furious if they don't reduce immigration" in relation to E.U FoM. Just becuse it wasn't an isssue at this GE doesn't mean it isn't a salient issue for many. If Farage becomes leader again it will be an important issue once again.
Oh and that YouGoV poll showing people care more about trade than immigration.....be careful-the way you ask the question has a huge impact on the response.
My mother's career as a political augury is now in tatters. She had voted for the winning party in every GE from 1955 - 2015 but voted for Corbyn this time.
My mum who is a political weathervane ealier said "I'll be furious if they don't reduce immigration" in relation to E.U FoM. Just becuse it wasn't an isssue at this GE doesn't mean it isn't a salient issue for many. If Farage becomes leader again it will be an important issue once again.
Oh and that YouGoV poll showing people care more about trade than immigration.....be careful-the way you ask the question has a huge impact on the response.
My mother's career as a political augury is now in tatters. She had voted for the winning party in every GE from 1955 - 2015 but voted for Corbyn this time.
So, given these 'Best PM' ratings, how far ahead do we expect Labour to be in the voting intention? 5 points? 10 points?
Depends on if Labour leads on the economy.
History would suggest if the Tories are still leading on the economy then I reckon the Labour lead is sub 3%, if Labour is ahead on the economic question, then we're looking at a Labour lead of 5% plus.
No one has helped the leave campaign more than Gina Miller. Her shady backers and disregard for democracy are there for all to see. I would have her on QT every week if I could.
I think you'll find that the Leave campaign ended before Gina Miller began.
The latest incarnation of the Leave campaign 'Change Britain' has given up. They were supposed to begin campaigning after the election but there's not been a word from them.
They haven't. I was at an interesting event last night with some of the key people in the Leave campaign (not quite sure why I was invited!)
They are more of a lobbying organisation than a campaigning group - and happy with where the government is at (open, global Britain).
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
Trump is no fascist, but the evil Saudis are. The West is backing the wrong side in the main conflict in the ME - why did the USA shoot down a Russian plane that was bombing the islamist terrorists of the"so called" FSA (alias Al Qayda) last week?
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
Trump is no fascist, but the evil Saudis are. The West is backing the wrong side in the main conflict in the ME - why did the USA shoot down a Russian plane that was bombing the islamist terrorists of the"so called" FSA (alias Al Qayda) last week?
That's the irony. The AQ is now an US ally. Their injured are treated in Israel. Mind boggles!
My mum who is a political weathervane ealier said "I'll be furious if they don't reduce immigration" in relation to E.U FoM. Just becuse it wasn't an isssue at this GE doesn't mean it isn't a salient issue for many. If Farage becomes leader again it will be an important issue once again.
Oh and that YouGoV poll showing people care more about trade than immigration.....be careful-the way you ask the question has a huge impact on the response.
My mother's career as a political augury is now in tatters. She had voted for the winning party in every GE from 1955 - 2015 but voted for Corbyn this time.
After a year of living dangerously, it is the pro-Europeans who now have a spring in their step. “We are not dancing in the streets, but we are back in the game,” one leading figure said. Re-energised Europhile Tories discuss alliances with MPs in other parties. Previously cowed pro-Europeans in the Cabinet flex their muscles, ready to exploit their new clout now that Ms May’s authority has been shot to pieces. The voice of business, unheard in the election, calls for the economy, not control of migration, to be put first.
In this world of topsy-turvy politics, hardline Brexiteers are not in despair yet, but some are nervous. The more paranoid amongst them can again see their worst nightmare coming true. They are relieved that Ms May remains committed to leaving the single market and customs union. But they worry that Parliament could now throw a spanner in all their works.
So, given these 'Best PM' ratings, how far ahead do we expect Labour to be in the voting intention? 5 points? 10 points?
Does it matter? Who believes the polls anyway? I for one have no faith in them whatsoever.
Some believe them when they show Corbyn 'ahead' (sic) of May.......
I'm surprised, one would have thought someone with OGH experience would know that 34 & 35 is a statistical 'tie'.......but there you go......
2) This is the first time since 2007 that the Labour leader is ahead of the Tory leader on this metric with YouGov.
Another one who thinks '34' and '35' are different numbers in a poll......
They are different. Just because they are within the range that is within the 95% certainty doesn't mean they are the same. For instance there is a higher probability that the actual figure for the person on 35% is going to be higher than the person on 34%.
' More than 28,000 properties were affected by the flooding that hit large parts of the UK, a BBC survey of local councils suggests.
In Hull, 17,000 properties were flooded. More than 1,000 were affected in East Riding, Sheffield, Doncaster and Wakefield.
As many as 35,000 people were affected by flooding in Hull, with areas across the city inundated. More than 10,000 homes were evacuated and many schools were closed.
It could cost more than £200m to repair the damage to schools, public housing, doctor's surgeries, roads and leisure centres, said Hull City Council leader Carl Minns.
Hull was the "forgotten city" of the floods, said Mr Minns. An appeal, the Hull Flood Fund has been set up.
Visiting the victims, the Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu, said: "The poorest, the most vulnerable people on very low incomes - when these things hit them, it hits them hard." '
Not quite what George Osborne predicted a year ago:
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
Comments
The Commission's report found that EU migrants were less likely to be non-active than British nationals. While 30% of EU nationals in the UK are non-active, 43% of British nationals are likewise (although, as the OBR has pointed out, this may owe much to the age structure of immigrants, who are more likely to be of working age when they arrive on these shores). Similarly, whereas 77% of working-age EU nationals were employed, 68% of British nationals in the same age bracket could say the same.
https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/877942540669861888
Edit - and I see you join OGH in believing that a 1 point difference is statistically significant....
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2017/06/dont-be-fooled-by-mcdonnells-latter-day-conversion-to-peaceful-protest.html
erm.
The PM is besties with Donald "lock her up" Trump.
These kind of attacks on corbyn - or mcdonnell - simply don't work when the alternative is a party that snuggles up to fascists.
There is a flipside though - if the sane tory party cut themselves loose from the nutters who currently run the show, they have a chance of a majority.
Not likely to happen, imo. Since 2014 the wealthy xenophobic pensioners wing of the party have wrestled back control and they ain't letting go.
Yes, that wing of the tory party.
This is always how it ends for the conservatives.
They never learn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40372533
Oh and that YouGoV poll showing people care more about trade than immigration.....be careful-the way you ask the question has a huge impact on the response.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/sadiq-khan-to-shut-50-per-cent-of-police-station-front-counters-in-a3570731.html
Does it matter? Who believes the polls anyway? I for one have no faith in them whatsoever.
History would suggest if the Tories are still leading on the economy then I reckon the Labour lead is sub 3%, if Labour is ahead on the economic question, then we're looking at a Labour lead of 5% plus.
They are more of a lobbying organisation than a campaigning group - and happy with where the government is at (open, global Britain).
I'm surprised, one would have thought someone with OGH experience would know that 34 & 35 is a statistical 'tie'.......but there you go......
1) A couple of months ago Mrs May was ahead by 39%
2) This is the first time since 2007 that the Labour leader is ahead of the Tory leader on this metric with YouGov.
More follows...
http://news.sky.com/story/online-bookies-face-enforcement-action-10924461
In this world of topsy-turvy politics, hardline Brexiteers are not in despair yet, but some are nervous. The more paranoid amongst them can again see their worst nightmare coming true. They are relieved that Ms May remains committed to leaving the single market and customs union. But they worry that Parliament could now throw a spanner in all their works.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-referendum-vacuous-gisela-stuart-leading-leave-campaigner-abuse-democratic-process-comments-a7803611.html
' More than 28,000 properties were affected by the flooding that hit large parts of the UK, a BBC survey of local councils suggests.
In Hull, 17,000 properties were flooded. More than 1,000 were affected in East Riding, Sheffield, Doncaster and Wakefield.
As many as 35,000 people were affected by flooding in Hull, with areas across the city inundated. More than 10,000 homes were evacuated and many schools were closed.
It could cost more than £200m to repair the damage to schools, public housing, doctor's surgeries, roads and leisure centres, said Hull City Council leader Carl Minns.
Hull was the "forgotten city" of the floods, said Mr Minns. An appeal, the Hull Flood Fund has been set up.
Visiting the victims, the Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu, said: "The poorest, the most vulnerable people on very low incomes - when these things hit them, it hits them hard." '
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6277996.stm
Notable for inaction from the Labour government
As with other things, this is more about May weakness than Corbyn strength.
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-demand-strengthens/
NEW THREAD