Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » June 8th 2017 is a day that the election predictor/modellers w

12467

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2017

    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Ahem. The Garley Building.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Garley_Building_fire
    (the number of high-rise buildings in HK) x (the incidence of such incidents) = trivial
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    I'd think you'd know better than that. Such an accident is *always* the result of multiple causal factors. Cuts may be one of them, but it's wrong to concentrate on that when there were probably many other failures as well that contributed.
    You're right, of course, but I can only speak from my experience. My service has cut dramatically and we've been close to disaster a few times on jobs I've been too because of not enough resources, and have lost a number of buildings that we might have saved with a speedier and weightier attack. There are a number of court cases pending throughout the country bought by insurance companies against local fire services.
    I've never argued for a gold plated Porsche fire engine on every street corner crewd by a bus full of firefighters, just enough and in the right places. We don't have that anymore.
    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
    definitely immigration/freedom of movement.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
    Wow! People are patting themselves on the back and taking the credit? That's a surprise!! :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Looks more like a failed attempt to lead a Mexican wave...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
    I posted several times that I had backed NOM and Lab Maj.
    OK, kudos. I trust you enjoy this year's luxury holiday! ;)
    In the short term I would have been *a lot* better off with a Lab OM but the winnings on NOM (5.8 on BF) will at least fund some drinks on holiday.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Well he's knob then.
    Well that's a convincing argument!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    TGOHF said:

    Unemployment down 50k.

    Must be due to Hammond being a Remainer or something.

    Any word on the Scottish figure?

    Prepares for 'up because of referendum uncertainty & Nat incompetence', or 'down because of the broad shoulders of strong & stable UK'.
    There'll be a spike in unemployed SNP troughers and drunks.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Barnesian said:

    Spending on consumption gets you into more debt. Spending on investment (infrastructure, education and training etc) gives a return that can get you out of debt if the return is greater than the cost of borrowing.

    That's the theory but there are plenty of examples of investment being a great way of wasting money. I sure as hell do not believe that Labour's plans for investment were wise.
  • TGOHF said:

    This was no slum private sector landlord - it was a quango.

    QUITE.

    Obviously I don't know about this building or this borough in general, but,

    I do know what is happening in southern Cumbria and the house building here. Normally low rise blocks are only used to provide affordable housing on big sites in Kendal. Otherwise they are only used for developments for the elderly, better not give the name. Such of these private sector developments, low rise, medium rise as I have seen are of an incredibly high standard. They sell before they are completed usually.

    Thus, at least here, but I'm pretty sure everywhere, private sector development is of a much higher standard than ex-local authority Housing Association / Trust.

    Private rented tends to be of a pretty good standard as it overlaps with the holiday let sector. Shorthold tenants are preferred to holiday lets even if they pay less. It seems holiday letters have problems with those who literally shit on the floor. I assume the big letters such as Centre Parcs etc have these shithouses blacklisted.

    New affordable housing is now provided by extracting funds from those developing open market housing. Safety and energy efficiency are both very expensive. The new housing association stuff I have seen is made to a superficially very good clean standard although I doubt how long the finishes will last.

    My controversial comment would be that it is planning, not building control which leads to problems. The rubbish about only building on brownfield sites and only allowing building where people don't want to live. No wonder all our farmsteads are becoming 10 unit developments. Whoever gave people the idea that they can control the field they happen to look over is responsible for the housing shortage in this country.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited June 2017

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    atia2 said:

    atia2 said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Yes, it's fine if you're also prepared to fund a Scandinavian state to ensure high standards. UK rapidly losing its first world status.
    Are you prepared to live within your means and run a trade surplus in order to fund a Scandinavian state ?
    Of course. I would be delighted to engage in productive activities to fund a high-quality state which levers the economic benefits of cooperation. I am not delighted to live in a country that underfunds its public services and believes that property ownership is a productive activity.
    As would everyone. In theory. In practice, at the ballot box for the past 30 years, this is not what people have said they actually want.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Ahem. The Garley Building.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Garley_Building_fire
    (the number of high-rise buildings in HK) x (the incidence of such incidents) = trivial
    That rather depends on your "triviality" threshold.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    London Fire Commissioner Dany Cotton has issued a statement on the ongoing Grenfell Tower fire, promising further information will be made public as soon as possible.

    She says:

    The fire has affected all floors of the 24-storey building, from the second floor up

    The first calls were received at 00:54 BST and the first fire crews arrived in under six minutes

    Crews wearing breathing apparatus have been working in extremely difficult conditions to rescue people and bring this major fire under control

    There are confirmed fatalities


    http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-england-london-40239008
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:

    atia2 said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Yes, it's fine if you're also prepared to fund a Scandinavian state to ensure high standards. UK rapidly losing its first world status.
    Are you prepared to live within your means and run a trade surplus in order to fund a Scandinavian state ?
    Of course. I would be delighted to engage in productive activities to fund a high-quality state which levers the economic benefits of cooperation. I am not delighted to live in a country that underfunds its public services and believes that property ownership is a productive activity.
    As would everyone. In theory. In practice, at the ballot box for the past 30 years, this is not what people have said they actually want.
    Which is why one should never stop campaigning.

    Sadly we get the governments we deserve.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Ahem. The Garley Building.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Garley_Building_fire
    (the number of high-rise buildings in HK) x (the incidence of such incidents) = trivial
    That rather depends on your "triviality" threshold.
    Mathematically trivial.
  • PatrickPatrick Posts: 225
    edited June 2017
    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Spending on consumption gets you into more debt. Spending on investment (infrastructure, education and training etc) gives a return that can get you out of debt if the return is greater than the cost of borrowing.

    That's the theory but there are plenty of examples of investment being a great way of wasting money. I sure as hell do not believe that Labour's plans for investment were wise.
    Well one thing that would help is being a little disciplined and honest with words. Gordon Brown used to talk about 'investing in public services'. That would be spending. An investment generates a direct cash return. Building a toll bridge is an investment. Spending money that is generally helpful in some way but which does directly generate a cash return is not investment. It is 'good ' spending - but spending nonetheless.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Nigelb said:

    Looks more like a failed attempt to lead a Mexican wave...
    I like the look on the face of the fellow top left. You could write a caption. Possibly Private Eye will.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    Nigelb said:

    Looks more like a failed attempt to lead a Mexican wave...
    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/874738194725654529
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    No but there are controls available already and it is part of a negotiations that concluded sensibly could go a long way to a sensible compromise. Indeed in the end everyone will have to compromise
  • TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    Thanks. Could you explain your previous comment that LFB had plenty of resources? Or do you mean in general resources are stretched nationwide?
    Nationwide, local county fire services are stretched pretty thin. Loughborough, a large market town, large university, fast road network, industrial, and with a large area of surrounding villages now has just one fire engine with 4 crew on it. You're waiting for appliances from other towns or Leicester City. When I worked at Loughborough, there were 2 fire engines with at least nine crew between them. It just isn't enough to do the job safely and to the required operating procedures, so firefighters take risks and cut corners to get the job done. So far we've been lucky, but we won't always be.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    This is the way to deal w Mexican waves

    https://twitter.com/footbalifights/status/874719999751049216
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited June 2017
    Mr Barnesian,

    "They think like housewives managing a weekly budget."

    Exactly, so you need to explain clearly. Here's an example ...

    "We'll borrow £50 billion to nationalise a privatised company, every year, we'll pay £1 billion in interest but make £2 billion in profit."

    Housewife ... "But you'll increase the payroll by 50%, lose £2 billion a year, and increase the debt overall. We've seen it before."
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Nigelb said:

    Looks more like a failed attempt to lead a Mexican wave...
    A Transylvanian wave.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2017
    Immigration was key to the vote for Brexit and ran through this decision. Not only were those who felt negatively about immigration more likely to minimise the risks of Brexit but they were also significantly more likely to turnout, and then vote for Brexit in the polling booth. Immigration exerted powerful direct and indirect effects on the vote. The idea that this issue, which gave Leavers an emotional appeal that Remain’s economic pessimism could not match, was not central is misleading. Indeed, weeks before the balloting we argued that Leavers were more likely to show up at the polls because of this ‘enthusiasm gap’ –and they did......

    .....In conclusion, the story of why Britain voted for Brexit is straightforward. Propagated by an unlikely pair of messengers, Leave’s ‘Take Back Control’ message harnessed the emotive power of immigration, amplifying public concerns over identity and a feeling of being left behind that had been baked in long before the vote was called. These immigration fears, hitherto confined to the politically incorrect margins, not abstract concerns about a ‘democratic deficit’ or rescuing UK sovereignty from Brussels bureaucrats, do much to explain why Britain voted for Brexit.


    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/05/04/why-britain-voted-to-leave-and-what-boris-johnson-had-to-do-with-it/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2017

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do. Which Marxist was it who said: "I am a socialist not because I love the poor, but because I hate them."?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Patrick said:

    Well one thing that would help is being a little disciplined and honest with words. Gordon Brown used to talk about 'investing in public services'. That would be spending. An investment generates a direct cash return. Building a toll bridge is an investment. Spending money that is generally helpful in some way but which does directly generate a cash return is not investment. It is 'good ' spending - but spending nonetheless.

    Exactly, if you want to call something an investment you ought to be able to explain in broad terms what the return would be. It doesn't have to be exact, but it ought to go beyond words like "better" and "improved". By that measure this country hasn't seen much real public investment in a long time.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Spending on consumption gets you into more debt. Spending on investment (infrastructure, education and training etc) gives a return that can get you out of debt if the return is greater than the cost of borrowing.

    That's the theory but there are plenty of examples of investment being a great way of wasting money. I sure as hell do not believe that Labour's plans for investment were wise.
    Which ones do you think are unwise. See page 11 of the Labour manifesto. I assume you have read it in order to make your comment?

    http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf

    Transport links
    Highspeed broadband
    New, state-of-the-art low-carbon gas and renewable electricity production

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Barnesian said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Well he's knob then.
    Well that's a convincing argument!
    Look at the polls before the referendum and immigration was in the top two,what's better than getting control of your own borders.

    If cameron had got any deal on freedom of movement before the ref then remain would have won in my opinion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Osborne's threat of a "punishment budget" probably tipped a few waverers to the leave side.

    When will he take some responsibility for this and his master's shit campaign that has got us into this mess ?
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do.
    This is trivially true. You can close down every policy argument by noting that we chose the current policies. It's not particularly illuminating.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2017

    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    Thanks. Could you explain your previous comment that LFB had plenty of resources? Or do you mean in general resources are stretched nationwide?
    Nationwide, local county fire services are stretched pretty thin. Loughborough, a large market town, large university, fast road network, industrial, and with a large area of surrounding villages now has just one fire engine with 4 crew on it. You're waiting for appliances from other towns or Leicester City. When I worked at Loughborough, there were 2 fire engines with at least nine crew between them. It just isn't enough to do the job safely and to the required operating procedures, so firefighters take risks and cut corners to get the job done. So far we've been lucky, but we won't always be.
    Thanks - tell me also, we hear re. the police (and some MPS senior figures will agree) that efficiency has gone up and that increased numbers don't mean more crime solved, and vice versa, lower numbers don't necessarily mean more crime.

    Is there the same kind of dynamic in the fire service? Or can you simply only respond to half as many incidents as previously when there were two fire engines? And are there often two simultaneous incidents?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Are we going to start ignoring polls now? They have been consistently and massively wrong in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (with the odd honourable exception - but identifying these is only possible with hindsight anyway).

    Also received wisdom - pundits and media clearly know nothing as Jon Snow admitted the other day. Consulting entrails of a chicken would be a better predictor of the future than the UK media/polls.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    rawzer said:

    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
    It seems @CarlottaVance has posted it.

    The acceptance of the word of the bloke who decided to go with '350m for NHS' for that being the crucial factor is quite something. Although he did write v long essay telling everyone why he was right so that's that I suppose
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do.
    This is trivially true. You can close down every policy argument by noting that we chose the current policies. It's not particularly illuminating.
    How else would you describe our political system? We vote for the one we want. Is it a dreadful way to do things? Yep. Is it the least bad of the alternatives? Yep.
  • PatrickPatrick Posts: 225
    The only sustainable answer to how we pay for more public services is to grow the economy. Labour are fab at growing the spending but notably less so at growing the economy. Rochdale is right that we need to spend more on public services. ALL the arguing ought to be therefore about how we can grow the economy quicker. What can government do to make it easier to do business profitably?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Good to see some people are prepared to alter their opinions in light of events, well said. I live in the same neck of the woods and the sort of statement that Airbus put out about hard Brexit after the election scares me to death. The headbangers will, of course, dismiss it as "project fear' but I can assure you I am not prepared to take the risk of seeing my local economy collapse. It was one of the reasons I voted Remain in the first place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    What's human dignity?

    The virtue signallers have been having a field day
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    isam said:

    rawzer said:

    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
    It seems @CarlottaVance has posted it.

    The acceptance of the word of the bloke who decided to go with '350m for NHS' for that being the crucial factor is quite something. Although he did write v long essay telling everyone why he was right so that's that I suppose
    I think some LEAVERs are embarrassed by why they won.....
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    calum said:
    Brexit's working out fine for Scotland.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    So, May was right about the saboteurs then?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    calum said:

    Presumably a lot of the 'North Sea job losses' don't show up in Scotland as many of the workers have returned to their homes elsewhere in the UK/Europe?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    The clearing houses for derivatives will remain in London (for now) but under EU regulations and EU control. This means Brussels could withdraw them at any time, which would be hugely damaging for the City, lock in instability, and trigger the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. And before the PB Provincial Paleo Tories pipe up and implore us all to move to their new Jerusalem, Mansfield, these jobs include thousands of sweet girls from Essex and Kent working in back offices, not just financial services big dogs.

    Vote Leave. Take back control.
    And it could have been moved anytime the EU wished to relocate it to the Eurozone.

    What's home ownership levels in Ealing Central these days ? Is it below 40% yet ?
    Mansfield: The Tories' vision for Britain.

    I have no idea what home ownership levels are in Ealing. I am sure they are much lower than in Mansfield because prices are high in west London, because people want to live there and they don't much want to live in Mansfield.

    I sent you a ONS report on disposable income levels the other night which completely undermined your case. Don't keep digging.

    Hard data vs PB Provincial Paleo Tory anecdote.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2017
    CD13 said:

    Mr Barnesian,

    "They think like housewives managing a weekly budget."

    Exactly, so you need to explain clearly. Here's an example ...

    "We'll borrow £50 billion to nationalise a privatised company, every year, we'll pay £1 billion in interest but make £2 billion in profit."

    Housewife ... "But you'll increase the payroll by 50%, lose £2 billion a year, and increase the debt overall. We've seen it before."

    In its five years as East Coast, the state-run firm returned a little more than £1bn in premiums, as well as several million in profits, to the Treasury. Detailed financial analysis from the Office of Rail Regulation shows it was one of two firms to make a net contribution to government coffers over the last two years, paying in more than it received in subsidy or indirect grants, along with Southwest Trains (run by Stagecoach).

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/01/east-coast-rail-line-returns-to-private-hands
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do.
    This is trivially true. You can close down every policy argument by noting that we chose the current policies. It's not particularly illuminating.
    How else would you describe our political system? We vote for the one we want. Is it a dreadful way to do things? Yep. Is it the least bad of the alternatives? Yep.
    I'm arguing for what we should choose. I know what we did choose, and pointing out its disadvantages.

    I'm not arguing for the overthrow of democracy!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    What seems to be missing from the "its OK to borrow money for investment" policy is that when I or a company invests it has to repay the capital over the life of the project. It does seem that Government investment, say in a new motorway, is never actually repaid other than on paper by an army of accountants who produce reports justifying the investment on the value of the lives saved or journeys speeded up.

    That said if Quantitative Easing is harmless then why not use it to buy real assets, a new railway line or the utility companies for example

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do.
    This is trivially true. You can close down every policy argument by noting that we chose the current policies. It's not particularly illuminating.
    How else would you describe our political system? We vote for the one we want. Is it a dreadful way to do things? Yep. Is it the least bad of the alternatives? Yep.
    I'm arguing for what we should choose. I know what we did choose, and pointing out its disadvantages.

    I'm not arguing for the overthrow of democracy!
    Phew!
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    isam said:

    rawzer said:

    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
    It seems @CarlottaVance has posted it.

    The acceptance of the word of the bloke who decided to go with '350m for NHS' for that being the crucial factor is quite something. Although he did write v long essay telling everyone why he was right so that's that I suppose
    Indeed, but sadly the data isnt in the article only a tease that immigration is striped through it, so we have to all go buy the book so we can find lots of numbers to distort
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:
    Brexit's working out fine for Scotland.
    Still in single market !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Icarus said:

    What seems to be missing from the "its OK to borrow money for investment" policy is that when I or a company invests it has to repay the capital over the life of the project. It does seem that Government investment, say in a new motorway, is never actually repaid other than on paper by an army of accountants who produce reports justifying the investment on the value of the lives saved or journeys speeded up.

    That said if Quantitative Easing is harmless then why not use it to buy real assets, a new railway line or the utility companies for example

    QE is not harmless. We just don't understand how harmful it is, yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
    I posted several times that I had backed NOM and Lab Maj.
    OK, kudos. I trust you enjoy this year's luxury holiday! ;)
    In the short term I would have been *a lot* better off with a Lab OM but the winnings on NOM (5.8 on BF) will at least fund some drinks on holiday.
    Seriously, why do you think you picked up what almost every canvasser seems to have missed?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Eagles, I can see why the EU might be concerned. I still can't see why they then have the authority to prevent business in Britain conducting business in Britain, particularly if we've left the EU.


    THEY ARE EURO TRANSACTIONS REGULATED BY THE ECB.

    The complete ignorance of how the City works from Leave voters in disappointing, but hardly surprising.

    Vote Leave. Take back control.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    calum said:

    calum said:
    Brexit's working out fine for Scotland.
    Still in single market !
    The UK - four times as big as the other Single Market Nicola obsesses about!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    So, May was right about the saboteurs then?

    The only saboteurs in this country are those that ran the Tory campaign and came up with the Tory manifesto
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597

    calum said:

    Presumably a lot of the 'North Sea job losses' don't show up in Scotland as many of the workers have returned to their homes elsewhere in the UK/Europe?
    Oil workers in general tend to be quite mobile - English is the common working language in the industry, which removes the usual block against UK citizens moving abroad. The culture in the industry is very much to move to where the work is....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    TOPPING said:
    MAs in Sociology don't vote Tory shock.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.

    As a stand alone proposition people wanted to control/stop immigration - whether they want to do so at the expense of the country's economy is an entirely different proposition.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.
    I'
    Because it is true.
    Thanks. Could you explain your previous comment that LFB had plenty of resources? Or do you mean in general resources are stretched nationwide?
    Nationwide, local county fire services are stretched pretty thin. Loughborough, a large market town, large university, fast road network, industrial, and with a large area of surrounding villages now has just one fire engine with 4 crew on it. You're waiting for appliances from other towns or Leicester City. When I worked at Loughborough, there were 2 fire engines with at least nine crew between them. It just isn't enough to do the job safely and to the required operating procedures, so firefighters take risks and cut corners to get the job done. So far we've been lucky, but we won't always be.
    Thanks - tell me also, we hear re. the police (and some MPS senior figures will agree) that efficiency has gone up and that increased numbers don't mean more crime solved, and vice versa, lower numbers don't necessarily mean more crime.

    Is there the same kind of dynamic in the fire service? Or can you simply only respond to half as many incidents as previously when there were two fire engines? And are there often two simultaneous incidents?
    There is no arguing that calls have gone down. Cars are safer, smoke detectors are an amazing invention, building regs(when adhered to!) are more stringent, and fire control call handling cuts the number of times we turn out to false alarms. So we don't turn out as often as we used to, but a house fire is still a house fire, and you still need boots on the ground to do search and rescue, put the fire out and have control of the incident. We don't have the boots on the ground anymore, so a crew of 4 take risks and cut corners on procedures while waiting for the cavalry to turn up. I've been in that situation constantly for the past 5 years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Britain is welcome to change its mind and stay in the European Union, but it should not expect to keep getting its EU budget rebates or complex opt-outs from EU rules, the European Parliament's Brexit coordinator said on Wednesday.

    "Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron, the new French president, spoke about an open door. That if Britain changes its mind it would find an open door," Guy Verhofstadt told the chamber.

    "I agree. But like Alice in Wonderland, not all the doors are the same. It will be a brand new door, with a new Europe, a Europe without rebates, without complexity, with real powers and with unity."


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-eu-verhofstadt-idUSKBN1950QW
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Brexit = making us all poorer

    If only someone had told us that before the vote.

    Oh, wait, never mind.

    Let them eat Sovereignty!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    "QE is not harmless. We just don't understand how harmful it is, yet." IanB2

    What is your timing on this - which government will be in office (nearly said in power) when it bites us?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is fad indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
    I posted several times that I had backed NOM and Lab Maj.
    OK, kudos. I trust you enjoy this year's luxury holiday! ;)
    In the short term I would have been *a lot* better off with a Lab OM but the winnings on NOM (5.8 on BF) will at least fund some drinks on holiday.
    Seriously, why do you think you picked up what almost every canvasser seems to have missed?
    I did comment on this earlier just after the election, so briefly, I was in a Remain super-marginal and the Cons voters were furious at Brexit.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    calum said:

    calum said:
    Brexit's working out fine for Scotland.
    Still in single market !
    It's clear that Scotland is benefitting from the Brexit Decision. Embrace it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    isam said:

    rawzer said:

    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
    It seems @CarlottaVance has posted it.

    The acceptance of the word of the bloke who decided to go with '350m for NHS' for that being the crucial factor is quite something. Although he did write v long essay telling everyone why he was right so that's that I suppose
    He, and I, and people like RCS were very clear from the start to the finish of the campaign what we were fighting for. Do you think we should have not campaigned for Leave because we didn't have the same reasons as you for wanting it? Our reasons were just as valid - and in fact far more practical - than yours. If you don't like the fact that some of us don't share your obsession with immigration then that is your problem not mine or Dan Hannan's.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704
    Labour MP accuses the government of resisting calls to install sprinkler systems in high-rise blocks
  • atia2 said:



    You're right, of course, but I can only speak from my experience. My service has cut dramatically and we've been close to disaster a few times on jobs I've been too because of not enough resources, and have lost a number of buildings that we might have saved with a speedier and weightier attack. There are a number of court cases pending throughout the country bought by insurance companies against local fire services.
    I've never argued for a gold plated Porsche fire engine on every street corner crewd by a bus full of firefighters, just enough and in the right places. We don't have that anymore.

    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?
    For what is is worth when I was a Cumbria county councillor I considered fire fighting to be my single most important role - 78 of my 83 colleagues did not agree with me.

    The problem is perversely there are many fewer call-outs than they once were and the internal systems in modern houses mean most potential victims get out without injury - thank goodness.

    Therefore the service has very few call outs - about 6 per day in Cumbria ( 500,000 population ). This includes people locked out of their cars, cats up trees, wankers setting fire to a tree in their garden ( my neighbour ).

    If it weren't for the M6 there would be even fewer call outs than that in Cumbria - it is the M6 which keeps several stations open.

    But, when there is a significant incident the provision is hopelessly inadequate and crews have to come from the whole north west.

    They have done away with the beds in fire stations because of the bad press they attracted. Actually they were a good thing. The fire service is like an army 95% of the time there is nothing to do apart from training and make work. Some of the make work - going around being a pain in the arse actually detracts from good people staying in the service.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Barnesian said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Barnesian,

    "They think like housewives managing a weekly budget."

    Exactly, so you need to explain clearly. Here's an example ...

    "We'll borrow £50 billion to nationalise a privatised company, every year, we'll pay £1 billion in interest but make £2 billion in profit."

    Housewife ... "But you'll increase the payroll by 50%, lose £2 billion a year, and increase the debt overall. We've seen it before."

    In its five years as East Coast, the state-run firm returned a little more than £1bn in premiums, as well as several million in profits, to the Treasury. Detailed financial analysis from the Office of Rail Regulation shows it was one of two firms to make a net contribution to government coffers over the last two years, paying in more than it received in subsidy or indirect grants, along with Southwest Trains (run by Stagecoach).

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/01/east-coast-rail-line-returns-to-private-hands
    And the service was shit.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Brom said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
    definitely immigration/freedom of movement.
    There's no need to guess. Pollsters asked people. And there was (obviously) a variety of reasons. One of which that mustn't be discounted is a protest vote. Against an EU that'd been scapegoated by the press and politicians for 30 years, against the govt that was leading the Remain campaign, and against politics and the establishment in general. Other reasons included sovereignty, nationalism, money, immigration, fairness and nostalgia.

    People who are arguing for this Brexit or that Brexit should be honest that that's just their personal choice and not the one that people voted for. And since 48% of people voted for no Brexit at all, the law of political compromise would suggest that we're heading for the mildest form of Brexit available. A U-turn is more likely than Hard Brexit, especially as the news has become marbled with the benefits of EU membership while the benefits of Brexit are hardly mentioned any more, even by its proponents.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885

    So, May was right about the saboteurs then?

    The only saboteurs in this country are those that ran the Tory campaign and came up with the Tory manifesto
    Can we give them knighthoods?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    @Topping What lead you to back OM ?

    & Are you up long term on political bets ?
    It wasn't impossible to see Overall Maj, but I'd like to know the reasoning through the fog of war so to speak.

    I shifted onto it on the night personally, this graph gave me food for thought:

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

    In short I'd like to know if people spotted it through luck or reasoning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Without wishing to prejudge any investigation, it's just possible that energy efficiency was prioritised during the refurbishment, and fire safety got overlooked ?

    http://www.rydon.co.uk/news/rydon-lands-grenfell-tower-refurbishment-
    Internally, a new, more efficient communal heating system and bespoke smoke extract and ventilation system were fitted. The works achieved a BREEAM Good rating and Rydon helped the client secure eco funding grants…

    Thinking about it, it does seem extraordinary that escape routes possibly weren't protected by smoke detection connected to a central fire alarm - if they were, it doesn't seem that they worked, as a number of those who escaped said they were woken by shouts, and not a fire alarm...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    rawzer said:

    isam said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Yeah all those old, poor pensioners and working class tradesmen were voting on the specifics of treaties, not immigration that got Ukip 13% of the vote
    Someone must have polled the Leave voters to ask what their relative priorities were - is that data about as an antidote to everyone claiming whatever suits their argument is what motivated them?
    It seems @CarlottaVance has posted it.

    The acceptance of the word of the bloke who decided to go with '350m for NHS' for that being the crucial factor is quite something. Although he did write v long essay telling everyone why he was right so that's that I suppose
    I think some LEAVERs are embarrassed by why they won.....
    Well yes, and of course they have books to sell. They can't very well say their campaign DIDNT win it.

    Carswells idea of 24k + jobs only for immigrants shows what it's all about. The low paid don't need intense and unfair competition for their jobs. That's why 13% voted UKIP and 52% voted Leave . If that had been a prerequisite of FOM, Leave would never have won
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    edited June 2017

    Britain is welcome to change its mind and stay in the European Union, but it should not expect to keep getting its EU budget rebates or complex opt-outs from EU rules, the European Parliament's Brexit coordinator said on Wednesday.

    "Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron, the new French president, spoke about an open door. That if Britain changes its mind it would find an open door," Guy Verhofstadt told the chamber.

    "I agree. But like Alice in Wonderland, not all the doors are the same. It will be a brand new door, with a new Europe, a Europe without rebates, without complexity, with real powers and with unity."


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-eu-verhofstadt-idUSKBN1950QW

    Entirely expected.

    Edit: do Remainers still want to re-join that, with even bigger budget contributions, and no Schengen opt-out?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited June 2017

    Mr. Eagles, I can see why the EU might be concerned. I still can't see why they then have the authority to prevent business in Britain conducting business in Britain, particularly if we've left the EU.

    I'm not an expert on finance, as many here are. My uninformed expectation is that most transactional business will move to the EU. It's simpler for companies to do that. I am guessing companies pitching for business have to fill in compliance questionnaires. If one or several questions, are you fully compliant with EU regulation, jurisdiction and oversight, it is more desirable to be able to tick the boxes than explain why what you are offering is just as good. Even if your client is convinced, your client's client might insist on full compliance.

    Which might just leave London as a centre of excellence for project work, where a deep pool of financial, legal, insurance and technical expertise pull together a project proposal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    So, May was right about the saboteurs then?

    The only saboteurs in this country are those that ran the Tory campaign and came up with the Tory manifesto
    It's hard to disagree with that, but outside a few seats, there's very little evidence that Theresa May's Brexit policy cost her the election.

    Conversely, Corbyn's assurances on respecting the result attracted many more UKIP votes than would have otherwise been the case.

    It was austerity, hubris, arrogance, incompetence and stupid policies that cost this for May.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pollsters need to do a lot of thinking after this election. I include Survation and YouGov (in its polling) in this, because I'm not at all convinced that they were right for the right reasons.

    YouGov's model, on the other hand, was supernaturally good. Outside Scotland, its accuracy was uncanny. This clearly was right for the right reasons and we need to pay much more attention to such models in future.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,006
    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:



    Concerning, and not surprising.

    First world country?

    We can't afford the Fire Brigade. Or Police. Or Hospitals. Or Armed Forces. Or Human Dignity. We have to live within our means. With the emphasis on mean.

    We choose it @RochdalePioneers. Sorry but we do.
    This is trivially true. You can close down every policy argument by noting that we chose the current policies. It's not particularly illuminating.
    How else would you describe our political system? We vote for the one we want. Is it a dreadful way to do things? Yep. Is it the least bad of the alternatives? Yep.
    We don't have to vote for misery. The war against dignity has been waged by that fucker Dacre aided and abetted by that fucker Duncan Smith. I don't care about "we can't afford it" arguments - we can't afford NOT to treat people with compassion and dignity because very soon it will be us that are old and ill and demented and I don't want to be treated like shit as this generation has been.

    to me its very simple. Too many Conservatives has lost their mind. Utterly disconnected from what this country represents, utterly divorced from understanding of people less fortunate than themselves. Its not the party thats to blame, just the sociopathic wing who preach Christian Values whilst stomping their boot on the throat of the disabled because they're "scroungers".
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:

    Presumably a lot of the 'North Sea job losses' don't show up in Scotland as many of the workers have returned to their homes elsewhere in the UK/Europe?

    Indeed, mainly sub-contractors which further muddies the waters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Britain is welcome to change its mind and stay in the European Union, but it should not expect to keep getting its EU budget rebates or complex opt-outs from EU rules, the European Parliament's Brexit coordinator said on Wednesday.

    "Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron, the new French president, spoke about an open door. That if Britain changes its mind it would find an open door," Guy Verhofstadt told the chamber.

    "I agree. But like Alice in Wonderland, not all the doors are the same. It will be a brand new door, with a new Europe, a Europe without rebates, without complexity, with real powers and with unity."


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-eu-verhofstadt-idUSKBN1950QW

    Entirely expected.
    And made inevitable by Brexit. Giving Dave a kicking over his deal will come at a high price for the sceptics.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Barnesian,

    "They think like housewives managing a weekly budget."

    Exactly, so you need to explain clearly. Here's an example ...

    "We'll borrow £50 billion to nationalise a privatised company, every year, we'll pay £1 billion in interest but make £2 billion in profit."

    Housewife ... "But you'll increase the payroll by 50%, lose £2 billion a year, and increase the debt overall. We've seen it before."

    In its five years as East Coast, the state-run firm returned a little more than £1bn in premiums, as well as several million in profits, to the Treasury. Detailed financial analysis from the Office of Rail Regulation shows it was one of two firms to make a net contribution to government coffers over the last two years, paying in more than it received in subsidy or indirect grants, along with Southwest Trains (run by Stagecoach).

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/01/east-coast-rail-line-returns-to-private-hands
    And the service was shit.
    The customer satisfaction with the publicly owned East Coast line was at record levels until it went back into private hands, when it plummeted.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/passenger-satisfaction-with-east-coast-railways-falls-from-record-levels-immediately-after-a6841381.html

    Your opinions seem to be driven entirely by ideology not by evidence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Icarus said:

    So, May was right about the saboteurs then?

    The only saboteurs in this country are those that ran the Tory campaign and came up with the Tory manifesto
    Can we give them knighthoods?
    I'm told that Nick Timothy is getting a Knighthood, that is standard with the new job, he's becoming The United Kingdom's Most Excellent Ambassador Extraordinaire and Plenipotentiary to the Islamic State.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704
    Theresa May’s new chief of staff was one of a series of housing ministers who “sat on” a report warning high-rise blocks like Grenfell Tower were vulnerable to fire for four years.

    A former Chief Fire Officer who and secretary of a parliamentary group on fire safety today revealed successive ministers had had damning evidence on their desks since 2013 and nothing had happened.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017

    Pollsters need to do a lot of thinking after this election. I include Survation and YouGov (in its polling) in this, because I'm not at all convinced that they were right for the right reasons.

    YouGov's model, on the other hand, was supernaturally good. Outside Scotland, its accuracy was uncanny. This clearly was right for the right reasons and we need to pay much more attention to such models in future.

    Here's the question about the YouGov model.

    If, on the eve of the election, you had backed the winner in every constituency as forcasted by the Model how much money would you have made or lost? Repeat that question again excluding Scotland which I was fundamentally writing off as unable to be mathematically modelled.

    I suspect the BIG price winners it picked would put you well up.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Pollsters need to do a lot of thinking after this election. I include Survation and YouGov (in its polling) in this, because I'm not at all convinced that they were right for the right reasons.

    YouGov's model, on the other hand, was supernaturally good. Outside Scotland, its accuracy was uncanny. This clearly was right for the right reasons and we need to pay much more attention to such models in future.

    Yes, remember the amazed mockery they received when they had Canterbury as a toss up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 43, I appreciate that post but still fail to see why/how the EU could force business closures or movement.

    Mr. Bobajob, could you elaborate further please?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited June 2017

    Pollsters need to do a lot of thinking after this election. I include Survation and YouGov (in its polling) in this, because I'm not at all convinced that they were right for the right reasons.

    YouGov's model, on the other hand, was supernaturally good. Outside Scotland, its accuracy was uncanny. This clearly was right for the right reasons and we need to pay much more attention to such models in future.

    I was concerned by ICM's decision to discount Labour vote share from the results because "Labour always underperform". Pollsters should always go with the data even if they are instinctively doubtful. It's better to take the hit for reasons that only become apparent later, than attempt to second guess the data. People pay pollsters for their data analysis, not their soothsaying skills.
  • calum said:
    Refurbs always compromise compartmentation. Fire, like most things in life, takes the path of least resistance. So fire spreads through holes and voids created by retro fitted services.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Barnesian said:

    Which ones do you think are unwise. See page 11 of the Labour manifesto. I assume you have read it in order to make your comment?

    http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf

    Transport links
    Highspeed broadband
    New, state-of-the-art low-carbon gas and renewable electricity production

    I'm inherently skeptical of governments "investing" where the private sector would not, and in many cases I think the government involvement makes things worse.

    Taking the ones you mention.

    We've had endless arguments here about HS2 and other grand projets and whether they are worthwhile, Labour's argument seems to be "do more" when we can't even agree that what we are doing now makes any economic sense. In fact most people seem to concede it probably doesn't now but we are too far down track to call a halt. HSR is political catnip, politicians just love the idea of donning a hard hat and being photographed looking at track being built.

    Government seems to have a real knack of messing up investment in telecoms infrastructure, from the spectrum auctions, to the arbitrary targets, the numerous fill-in schemes in that area that are almost all failures, and a regulator that appears to be mostly useless. Public Wi-Fi is a frankly barmy idea, a better idea is refarming spectrum for carrier use, and promoting LTE-U and white space networks.

    We have had decades of government messing up energy policy, from dash for gas, to stupid solar incentives, on-again off-again wind farm projects, and hysteria over fracking. What's actually working in simply a declining cost of the underlying technology that has bugger all to do with government investment. Oh and nuclear is in a bloody mess again because of "government".

    Should the public do more of all this? Or should we have a business environment that makes it easier for commercial investors to do these things, using public money as a last resort to fill in the gaps? I would choose the latter every time.


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704
    SO says

    1. Worth remembering that the wealthiest in the UK have never been wealthier - individuals and companies. They have billions stashed away.

    2. Services are being cut because individuals & companies refuse to pay more tax on income they can never hope to spend.JWTheSpa added,

    3. Don't let anyone say there is no money left. There's billions out there sitting offshore doing nothing, serving no purpose.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    edited June 2017
    Dadge said:

    Brom said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hopeimportant than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
    definitely immigration/freedom of movement.
    There's. One of which than't be discounted is a protest vote. Against an EU that'd been scapegoated by the press and politicians for 30 years, against the govt that was leading the Remain campaign, and against politics and the establishment in general. Other reasons included sovereignty, nationalism, money, immigration, fairness and nostalgia.

    People who are arguing for this Brexit or that Brexit should be honest that that's just their personal choice and not the one that people voted for. And since 48% of people voted for no Brexit at all, the law of political compromise would suggest that we're heading for the mildest form of Brexit available. A U-turn is more likely than Hard Brexit, especially as the news has become marbled with the benefits of EU membership while the benefits of Brexit are hardly mentioned any more, even by its proponents.
    "And since 48% of people voted for no Brexit at all, the law of political compromise would suggest that we're heading for the mildest form of Brexit available."

    That's quite right in my opinion. Again the free market of public opinion should lead

    Leave the EU, not hard Brexit, Tory PM w no big mandate. That's what the public said since 2010
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Mr. 43, I appreciate that post but still fail to see why/how the EU could force business closures or movement.

    Mr. Bobajob, could you elaborate further please?

    Their currency, their rules.

    As long as we were part of the EU it wasn't a problem for them.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Patrick said:

    The only sustainable answer to how we pay for more public services is to grow the economy. Labour are fab at growing the spending but notably less so at growing the economy.

    That is the only way out of the mess we are in, and we need not a larger economy but a more productive one.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    OllyT said:

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.

    As a stand alone proposition people wanted to control/stop immigration - whether they want to do so at the expense of the country's economy is an entirely different proposition.
    Says someone not living with poor unskilled mass immigration,am I right ?
This discussion has been closed.