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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » June 8th 2017 is a day that the election predictor/modellers w

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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest Tenant management organisation in England, running nearly 10,000 properties on behalf of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea - the entire council housing stock.

    The TMO was set up on 1 April 1996[1] under the UK Government's 'Right to Manage' regulations.[2] Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest TMO in the UK[3] and is unique in being both the only TMO that runs the entire housing stock for the local council but also in being the only TMO that is also an ALMO (Arms Length Management Organisation).[4]

    My Borough did the same devolition of all the stock (small by RBK standards) to ALMO when under Tory control; it turned out to be management shambles, and when in coalition we played a part in bringing it back under council control.
    ALMOs are just adjuncts of the council, I believe. Quasi autonomous but essentially puppets of the local authority
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    WilliamzWilliamz Posts: 44
    TSE

    Well they can take the £63bn off the final bill then. At this rate they will end up paying us!
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Can you imagine the mockery from Europe if the UK has a second referendum. At least, the Irish were able to laugh at themselves when it happened there - and that was only on a minor treaty change.

    As Malcom G would say ... O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us, to see oursels as ithers see us.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    nunuone said:

    Nunuone

    Are you a reincarnation of Nunu or someone new?

    I am the same person. I couldn't remember my password.
    nunuone said:

    Nunuone

    Are you a reincarnation of Nunu or someone new?

    I am the same person. I couldn't remember my password.
    Welcome to the party, pal.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.

    If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.

    I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.

    There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
    Maybe there is corruption in Building Control.
    Perhaps, and that might be some of the story. But the problem is that there are only so many inspectors.

    Around 120,000 new homes were built in 2014. Each one may take between three and six months to build. If each one receives three visits from building control (yeah, right), and each visit takes half an hour, how many non-visible issues (e.g. missing insulation or poor foundations) can be picked up? How many inspectors would be needed to check for every possible issue?

    Anecdotally, it mostly depends on 'trust' between builders and the council. Hence small builders get more inspections than the large ones.

    Building inspections do not check as much as you think, and in practice much less:
    https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/what-does-a-building-inspector-do/
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    Sean_F said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
    They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
    It was 11% of GDP. Had we run an annual deficit of 11% of GDP between 2010 and now, we would be in a lot of trouble, I think.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    edited June 2017

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest Tenant management organisation in England, running nearly 10,000 properties on behalf of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea - the entire council housing stock.

    The TMO was set up on 1 April 1996[1] under the UK Government's 'Right to Manage' regulations.[2] Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest TMO in the UK[3] and is unique in being both the only TMO that runs the entire housing stock for the local council but also in being the only TMO that is also an ALMO (Arms Length Management Organisation).[4]

    My Borough did the same devolition of all the stock (small by RBK standards) to ALMO when under Tory control; it turned out to be management shambles, and when in coalition we played a part in bringing it back under council control.
    ALMOs are just adjuncts of the council, I believe. Quasi autonomous but essentially puppets of the local authority
    .
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    DavidL said:



    God, surely not. There is a number of people saying the fire alarms did not work but it is not clear if that is ones in the flats or the building as a whole.

    I find it almost possible to believe that anyone would have been allowed to use flammable panelling in the last 50 years but I saw down thread a reference saying it was not illegal. Given the limitations on getting water above 100 feet or so that is really astonishing.

    I'm pretty sure building regs - which unlike planning rules are very good in this country will deal with the water issue for more normal fires. Water stored in tanks etc. Clearly water has to be provided to every flat regardless of height - the system that does that is used to provide water for major incidents - at least I would have thought it would.

    Cladding, internal and external is "fire resistant". But when the temperature is measured in 100s of degrees C that must break down.

    I am amazed at how much kingspan has gone into taking my old 19thC farmhouse into a modern energy efficient house about B on the scale of things. The windows, regardless of what you call it are plastic, they are A++.

    Fire hazard does worry me but with the alarms I would have to be very drunk not to be able to jump out of a window and break a leg at worst.

    BTW if the EU cuts up rough and we have no Brexit deal the inability to export kingspan into the UK will be more damaging to the Irish economy than not being able to export their beef.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Well who could have predicted this? Oh wait.

    The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.

    The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/

    Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of taking back control.

    Its not 83,000 jobs and you know it.

    And this is why Project Fear is no longer believed.
    Perhaps someone could link to where these 50,000+ London finance job losses actually happened:

    ' If you perchance thought that your London banking job would be safe with Britain outside the European Union, you were seemingly wrong. Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.

    “You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '

    http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Borough, that's a credible possibility.

    Regardless of whether we leave or not, an extension to the timetable would be a good thing.

    Yep, extended the timetable. Talk about transitional arrangements.

    Within three or four years enough people will have had second thoughts to nullify the result frankly.

    There always should have been a threshold for something so momentous. A small win is just a recipe for division. As Farage says, if he had lost by a couple of percent or so, he would be back arguing for another vote the following morning.
    Thresholds, like the George Cunningham amendment to Scottish Devolution, store up more trouble for the long run, as the winners can plausibly argue that they were cheated. A big problem in our relationship with the EU is that people believed no matter how they vote, they get more Europe. ignoring the referendum result would make things very toxic.
    If Cameron had seriously addressed the issues he pointed out in his 2013 Bloomberg speech, which was very good, and committed himself to work hard at it across the EU for a new treaty during the 2015-2020 parliament, then that issue might have gone away.

    But, the speech was purely rhetorical.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    edited June 2017

    DavidL said:



    God, surely not. There is a number of people saying the fire alarms did not work but it is not clear if that is ones in the flats or the building as a whole.

    I find it almost possible to believe that anyone would have been allowed to use flammable panelling in the last 50 years but I saw down thread a reference saying it was not illegal. Given the limitations on getting water above 100 feet or so that is really astonishing.

    I'm pretty sure building regs - which unlike planning rules are very good in this country will deal with the water issue for more normal fires. Water stored in tanks etc. Clearly water has to be provided to every flat regardless of height - the system that does that is used to provide water for major incidents - at least I would have thought it would.

    Cladding, internal and external is "fire resistant". But when the temperature is measured in 100s of degrees C that must break down.

    I am amazed at how much kingspan has gone into taking my old 19thC farmhouse into a modern energy efficient house about B on the scale of things. The windows, regardless of what you call it are plastic, they are A++.

    Fire hazard does worry me but with the alarms I would have to be very drunk not to be able to jump out of a window and break a leg at worst.

    BTW if the EU cuts up rough and we have no Brexit deal the inability to export kingspan into the UK will be more damaging to the Irish economy than not being able to export their beef.
    An eye witness (video on the bbc website) claims that the fire brigade were unable to open the dry riser.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    People won't vote for it. Or else why wouldn't they at any stage have voted for the LibDem's hypothecated taxes, or indeed Jezza's raid on the 1% last week.

    They didn't vote for it = they don't want it.
    Given that expecting our politicians to work co-operatively together to resolve such problems looks futile, the solution is for the next government to have an unassailable majority and then force through wealth taxes and the other measures needed to fund things properly. That looks rather more likely today than it did last week.
    Maybe so maybe not. Certainly the Lab manifesto was crystal clear in being a key step towards that and they didn't get enough votes. Much as I was clear while canvassing that many Cons in large houses (in London) voted for Jezza because they disliked Brexit, it was often only because they didn't think he could actually get in. They will bolt to Cons or NOTA if they think he has a sniff of being PM.

    Plus as a matter of practicality there is only so much that the pips can squeak; are you thinking marginal rates back up way above 60-70%?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Well who could have predicted this? Oh wait.

    The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.

    The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/

    Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of taking back control.

    "Could". And they "could" have done this anyway as long as we had stayed outside the eurozone...
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    The clearing houses for derivatives will remain in London (for now) but under EU regulations and EU control. This means Brussels could withdraw them at any time, which would be hugely damaging for the City, lock in instability, and trigger the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. And before the PB Provincial Paleo Tories pipe up and implore us all to move to their new Jerusalem, Mansfield, these jobs include thousands of sweet girls from Essex and Kent working in back offices, not just financial services big dogs.

    Vote Leave. Take back control.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.

    If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.

    I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.

    There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
    Maybe there is corruption in Building Control.
    Perhaps, and that might be some of the story. But the problem is that there are only so many inspectors.

    Around 120,000 new homes were built in 2014. Each one may take between three and six months to build. If each one receives three visits from building control (yeah, right), and each visit takes half an hour, how many non-visible issues (e.g. missing insulation or poor foundations) can be picked up? How many inspectors would be needed to check for every possible issue?

    Anecdotally, it mostly depends on 'trust' between builders and the council. Hence small builders get more inspections than the large ones.

    Building inspections do not check as much as you think, and in practice much less:
    https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/what-does-a-building-inspector-do/
    Hasn't that always been the case though ?

    And in many other things than house construction.

    Inevitably there will be some cases of failings through incompetence, cost-cutting or misconduct.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.

    If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.

    I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.

    There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
    Maybe there is corruption in Building Control.
    Perhaps, and that might be some of the story. But the problem is that there are only so many inspectors.

    Around 120,000 new homes were built in 2014. Each one may take between three and six months to build. If each one receives three visits from building control (yeah, right), and each visit takes half an hour, how many non-visible issues (e.g. missing insulation or poor foundations) can be picked up? How many inspectors would be needed to check for every possible issue?

    Anecdotally, it mostly depends on 'trust' between builders and the council. Hence small builders get more inspections than the large ones.

    Building inspections do not check as much as you think, and in practice much less:
    https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/what-does-a-building-inspector-do/
    I only raise that because I had a client who was a retired building inspector. After his death, I discovered he had a big offshore account, into which he'd placed bribes from builders to pass sub-standard buildings. He was putting people's lives at risk.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Bobajob, but why under EU regulation/control?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Extraordinarily we have produced a parliament that, when it comes to the terms on which we leave the EU, has no majority for anything. Or for its opposite. The moment you depart from those vague and useless terms “hard Brexit” (boo) and “soft Brexit” (hooray), you are left with nothing.

    I doubt there is a majority for staying in the single market, or for departing. And you might think that logic dictates that there literally had to be a majority for one of the three options of leaving without a deal, approving a deal or not leaving at all, but no. I really don’t believe that there is.

    There seems to be agreement that we need jobs to be at the centre of any deal, yet this would be defeated too, because both parties agree that immigration, not jobs, should be at the centre of any deal. Yet if there was a deal that did not put jobs at the centre of it, it would be defeated because, well, jobs should be at the centre of any deal.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/theresa-may-s-only-brexit-option-is-dodging-the-cliff-edge-cjdqxnpxc
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    macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.



    You are absolutely right about people's experiences

    Have to say mine are not bad at all. Very minor interaction with public services - 1 Gp visit and one blood test in about 5 years - both admirably efficient and quick. Even managed only 1 visit ever to A&E with 3 kids which must be some kind of record - again quick and efficient but I guess we ere lucky

    Children's schools the main one, and they seem OK. Dripping with laptops, iPads, double glazing replacements, electronic whiteboards, good audiovisual kit, and every primary school class has a TA so the pupil:teacher ratio is really 15:1 as far as I can see. Some buildings are a bit tired.

    OK potholes are a disgrace but otherwise we clearly live in a rich country. I know I am lucky generally with a decent job etc and perhaps lucky specifically where I live (?)

    Yes the biggest hit to the average person who doesn't work in the Public Sector is the Local Council Maintainence stuff, pot holes, grass verges at neck height, grass cut on parks less often etc.

    Where we are the NHS seems to work fine, I need a hip op and I can have it done as soon as I want. There hasn't been any great inconvenience waiting for any GP or Hospital appointment.

    School outcomes at 16 are a national disaster 40% or so failing to get their GCSE requirements, despite the denials lack of money and resources is not the main factor in that.

    We are not as badly off as made out to be, IDS did get a lot of people back to work but there is a general lack of care shown when an individual falls on hard times. If an individual loses his job or get's an injury or illness that stops them working, they should be given help straight away that week without more than routine question. We have to go back to that, it does the Conservatives great harm to treat people like that, most claims are not fraudulent and the delays are quite ridiculous in processing, that is a recent state of affairs totally on the Conservative watch.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,414
    edited June 2017

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Bobajob, but why under EU regulation/control?

    They are clearing Euro transactions!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Sean_F said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
    They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
    The Labour deficit Osborne inherited was far higher than Major's.

    Debt rose about 15% of GDP under the Major government while it rose by about 35% of GDP between 2007 and 2010 alone:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483


    Everyone is talking about and preparing for a softer approach to Brexit, across the political spectrum, except for the Tory ultras and Mrs May herself. Mrs M may not be a star performer, but she knows more than any of us and is not completely stupid. I am wondering therefore whether she plans to resign at some point soon, between the QS being agreed and the summer holidays?

    If she is going, why be the person who changes tack on Brexit? Whereas if she is staying, surely she would understand that her previous approach is futile.

    Yes, thinking about this, I recon she should get the Queen's speech through and resign as Conservative Party Leader, but not yet as PM just after the Parliamentary recess starts next month.
    That will give the Tory party around 2 months to sort out a new leader whilst Parliament isn't sitting and then that person could be appointed PM in time for the party conference in October.
    Then they can get on with the Brexit talks and if a deal is done before the autumn of 2018 there could be an election at that time with the deal an issue of the campaign.
    If there's no deal by the end of March 2019 we leave the EU anyway and a GE should be called on the first Thursday in May.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    This was no slum private sector landlord - it was a quango.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
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    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Labour are more popular than the tories with everyone except the retired;

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2017-06-13/Employment-01.png

    They've become the wealthy pensioners party.

    Magic money tree for their client vote, austerity for everyone else.

    It's a shame. There are decent tory MP's who recognise and have sought to address intergenerational unfairness. eg;

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2017-02-28a.230.1

    Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
    Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
    On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.

    And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    And this is a very good point. How best to provide necessary travelling for all sections of society. Running near empty buses around the countryside in case someone might just happen to want to use them one day was and is stupid. Even buses as entertainment for the young elderly was reasonable. Does the pension provide for the taxi fare, when desired or even just when needed ?

    Here in Cumbria under the last administration there weren't even bus services to get 16-18 yos to school. So they drove themselves to school. Now to me that was just plain wrong.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Incredibly irresponsible coverage of the horrors in Kensington by the BBC at the moment. There should not be completely uninformed speculation at this point particularly from someone with a clear agenda.

    Yes there are serious questions to answer. But it is not right to give airtime to speculation such as they have just broadcast. It is not for Victoria Derbyshire to give her opinion as to why this fire spread in such a way.

    She is there to report not give her views. All she is doing is trying to create a television moment rather than give sensitive coverage of a very difficult situation.

    Shameful

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.

    If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.

    I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.

    There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
    Maybe there is corruption in Building Control.
    Perhaps, and that might be some of the story. But the problem is that there are only so many inspectors.

    Around 120,000 new homes were built in 2014. Each one may take between three and six months to build. If each one receives three visits from building control (yeah, right), and each visit takes half an hour, how many non-visible issues (e.g. missing insulation or poor foundations) can be picked up? How many inspectors would be needed to check for every possible issue?

    Anecdotally, it mostly depends on 'trust' between builders and the council. Hence small builders get more inspections than the large ones.

    Building inspections do not check as much as you think, and in practice much less:
    https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/what-does-a-building-inspector-do/
    I only raise that because I had a client who was a retired building inspector. After his death, I discovered he had a big offshore account, into which he'd placed bribes from builders to pass sub-standard buildings. He was putting people's lives at risk.
    I am unsurprised.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.
    emergency services cuts
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.

    If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.

    I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.

    There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
    Maybe there is corruption in Building Control.
    Perhaps, and that might be some of the story. But the problem is that there are only so many inspectors.

    Around 120,000 new homes were built in 2014. Each one may take between three and six months to build. If each one receives three visits from building control (yeah, right), and each visit takes half an hour, how many non-visible issues (e.g. missing insulation or poor foundations) can be picked up? How many inspectors would be needed to check for every possible issue?

    Anecdotally, it mostly depends on 'trust' between builders and the council. Hence small builders get more inspections than the large ones.

    Building inspections do not check as much as you think, and in practice much less:
    https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/what-does-a-building-inspector-do/
    Hasn't that always been the case though ?

    And in many other things than house construction.

    Inevitably there will be some cases of failings through incompetence, cost-cutting or misconduct.
    Many cases, IME. And the problem has got worse because building standards are so much more complex nowadays, and there is much more for inspectors to check.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017

    Well who could have predicted this? Oh wait.

    The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.

    The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/

    Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of taking back control.

    "Could". And they "could" have done this anyway as long as we had stayed outside the eurozone...
    "1 trillion a day". They're listing the notional value of derivatives transactions. Bless. At that point you can stop reading.

    The EU can restrict clearing in Euros or it can be a major financial centre and reserve currency. It can't do both. This line of thinking will also be likely to see it reintroduce concentration rules for the trading of shares and other such constructs. It is ultimately self harming, and at least this way we flush it out now and don't get dragged into that nonsense ourselves.

    The worst case scenario is that the City finds itself where it was before the full implementation of the first Markets in Financial Infrastructure Directive - the dark days of 2006 when bankers had barely two pennies to rub together.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    It's a price worth paying, Mike.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    The clearing houses for derivatives will remain in London (for now) but under EU regulations and EU control. This means Brussels could withdraw them at any time, which would be hugely damaging for the City, lock in instability, and trigger the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. And before the PB Provincial Paleo Tories pipe up and implore us all to move to their new Jerusalem, Mansfield, these jobs include thousands of sweet girls from Essex and Kent working in back offices, not just financial services big dogs.

    Vote Leave. Take back control.
    And it could have been moved anytime the EU wished to relocate it to the Eurozone.

    What's home ownership levels in Ealing Central these days ? Is it below 40% yet ?
  • Options
    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Sean_F said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
    They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
    The Labour deficit Osborne inherited was far higher than Major's.

    Debt rose about 15% of GDP under the Major government while it rose by about 35% of GDP between 2007 and 2010 alone:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
    You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Simon,

    "Incredibly irresponsible coverage of the horrors in Kensington by the BBC."

    Journalists are generally liked as much as politicians. They are the story. They have every right to pontificate on things they don't understand because they are superior people.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    The clearing houses for derivatives will remain in London (for now) but under EU regulations and EU control. This means Brussels could withdraw them at any time, which would be hugely damaging for the City, lock in instability, and trigger the loss of tens of thousands of jobs. And before the PB Provincial Paleo Tories pipe up and implore us all to move to their new Jerusalem, Mansfield, these jobs include thousands of sweet girls from Essex and Kent working in back offices, not just financial services big dogs.

    Vote Leave. Take back control.
    And it could have been moved anytime the EU wished to relocate it to the Eurozone.

    What's home ownership levels in Ealing Central these days ? Is it below 40% yet ?
    They tried to move it and lost under an ECJ ruling.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    It's a price worth paying, Mike.
    Even if its a price worth paying it still doesn't make it true.

    And the Libs are scratching their heads wondering why they got trashed.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Eagles, I can see why the EU might be concerned. I still can't see why they then have the authority to prevent business in Britain conducting business in Britain, particularly if we've left the EU.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    How would you have known if it was safe or unsafe? Once we are used to something, it's human nature to assume that it's not problematic. This natural complacency is the cause of many accidents.

    For instance, the residents of Ronan Point probably felt safe. Until this happened:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronan_Point

    For instance, we live in a three-story townhouse of the sort increasingly popular with builders. Three of the four bedrooms are on the top floor. We've tried to work out how we'd evacuate in case of a fire (the staircase is uninterrupted from ground floor to top, so would act as a channel for fire), but it's a bit of a bugger. We've got something in one room we can dangle out of the window to act as a rope, but it's far from ideal.
  • Options

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    CD13 said:


    As Malcom G would say ... O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us, to see oursels as ithers see us.

    Only as a Nat, he wouldn't.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr JohnL,

    "You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent."

    Two points. If it's incredible, then it isn't believable. And if you have a deficit, the debt is bound to increase.

    What were Labour's plans for the deficit by the way? The main problem for Labour is that the idea of spending more to get out of debt really is incredible.

  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
    I posted several times that I had backed NOM and Lab Maj.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Prof Scully has come out well too in his Welsh polling .Prof JC remains the king however,his exit poll was another bullseye.The betting markets were as bad a guide as some of the pollsters too.Even reports on the ground game were hoplelessly wrong-the Tories were closing in on Dennis Skinner's Bolsover according to this nonsense.
    You Gov did well but Survation is now the gold standard.The rest have probably suffered long-term reputational damage.Ipsos Mori and ICM and the rest have got some explaining to do.

    The Tories may not have won Bolsover but they did get a 7% swing to them in contrast to the 2% national swing to Labour and Skinner's majority is now 5000 down from 11 000 in 2015 and it is a marginal seat
    Give Ladbrokes a ring and ask them to price up 'Con gain Bolsover' for the next GE. You could be a rich man. Or not.
    Not Bolsover but I won a cake off my friend for predicting Con Gain Mansfield :)

    The swings to the Tories around here (North East Midlands) were decent on an otherwise poor night in England.
    My friend is fine, Thank God, lives about 3 streets away from the tower.
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    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Yes, it's fine if you're also prepared to fund a Scandinavian state to ensure high standards. UK rapidly losing its first world status.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    I'd think you'd know better than that. Such an accident is *always* the result of multiple causal factors. Cuts may be one of them, but it's wrong to concentrate on that when there were probably many other failures as well that contributed.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    That and 'Isis did it'.....

    More likely an unattended candle.

    Attended a fire safety talk once. The fireman said 'If, after this talk you go home and throw out every single candle you possess I'll consider this a success, if not, a failure'.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,924
    edited June 2017
    Just think, if the PB team had published my article that said pollsters should skew towards the politically uninterested, we would almost certainly have had a debate over the fact that YOUGOV already did that, and might have all piled on the 'surprise' results they found. Particularly as I had assumed the Labour score was influenced by over inclusion of political engagement, imagine how many people would have been keen to point out my error!!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2017

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    Thanks. Could you explain your previous comment that LFB had plenty of resources? Or do you mean in general resources are stretched nationwide?
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    The EU is making the rich richer.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,414

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    Brexiteers are economic terrorists.

    They should have to pay an extra 25% a year in income tax and 400% extra in council tax.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morning all. Horrific scenes in London which one fears the casualty figures will render all the more grim. Depending on what caused the fire to spread so quickly might have dramatic and far reaching consequences with immediate action required. Very dangerous moment if criminal negligence is involved.
    As a country it feels like we are stumbling, lurching from crisis to crisis as if somehow the wheels have just come off. The atmosphere could easily turn febrile. Overwhelmingly sad, depressed and concerned all at the same time. Things have to change.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Sean_F said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
    They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
    The Labour deficit Osborne inherited was far higher than Major's.

    Debt rose about 15% of GDP under the Major government while it rose by about 35% of GDP between 2007 and 2010 alone:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
    You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent.
    I'm no fan of Osborne and he certainly borrowed more than he predicted but given his starting point a huge increase in the national debt was inevitable.

    If you're looking for someone to blame start with Gordon Brown - it was during his time that the structural deficit started and who based his spending plans on the assumption there would never be another recession.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    edited June 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Dubai doesn't.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/02/dramatic-scenes-fire-engulfs-skyscraper-downtown-dubai/

    To be fair, incredibly there were no injuries.

    Inflammable cladding was blamed for the speed of spread of the fire.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Sean_F said:

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
    They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
    The Labour deficit Osborne inherited was far higher than Major's.

    Debt rose about 15% of GDP under the Major government while it rose by about 35% of GDP between 2007 and 2010 alone:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
    You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent.
    Because, of course, you would have been happy to cut £150bn pa of public spending in May 2010?
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    We could cancel the QE part of the national debt, that would cut it to 60% of GDP?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Incredibly irresponsible coverage of the horrors in Kensington by the BBC at the moment. There should not be completely uninformed speculation at this point particularly from someone with a clear agenda.

    Yes there are serious questions to answer. But it is not right to give airtime to speculation such as they have just broadcast. It is not for Victoria Derbyshire to give her opinion as to why this fire spread in such a way.

    Anyone who claims to know what happened at this stage is lying. There have been lots of major fires where the real cause wasn't determined to much later, and wasn't obvious at the time.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Well who could have predicted this? Oh wait.

    The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.

    The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/

    Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of being taking back control.

    There'll be plenty of jobs picking cabbages in the fields once the migrant labour has been blocked from coming.
    CDOs to ploughshares. The thought of jobless City boys working the fields ...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sadiq Khan statement at approx 9:45.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Unemployment down 50k.

    Must be due to Hammond being a Remainer or something.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Ahem. The Garley Building.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Garley_Building_fire
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076
    atia2 said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Yes, it's fine if you're also prepared to fund a Scandinavian state to ensure high standards. UK rapidly losing its first world status.
    Are you prepared to live within your means and run a trade surplus in order to fund a Scandinavian state ?
  • Options
    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    Morning all. Horrific scenes in London which one fears the casualty figures will render all the more grim. Depending on what caused the fire to spread so quickly might have dramatic and far reaching consequences with immediate action required. Very dangerous moment if criminal negligence is involved.
    As a country it feels like we are stumbling, lurching from crisis to crisis as if somehow the wheels have just come off. The atmosphere could easily turn febrile. Overwhelmingly sad, depressed and concerned all at the same time. Things have to change.

    We've spent too long playing political games and worshipping the individual, and we have taken our eyes off the main job of building a country we are proud to live in.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,414

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,582

    Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.

    We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.

    Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
    Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.

    Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.

    When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
    While I have a great deal of sympathy with the sentiment, I vividly remember Gordon Brown making precisely the same rhetorical point - except that at that time it was the "4th largest economy in the world"...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    FF43 said:

    Well who could have predicted this? Oh wait.

    The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.

    The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/

    Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of being taking back control.

    There'll be plenty of jobs picking cabbages in the fields once the migrant labour has been blocked from coming.
    CDOs to ploughshares. The thought of jobless City boys working the fields ...
    They could be sent there for re-education.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    atia2 said:

    Morning all. Horrific scenes in London which one fears the casualty figures will render all the more grim. Depending on what caused the fire to spread so quickly might have dramatic and far reaching consequences with immediate action required. Very dangerous moment if criminal negligence is involved.
    As a country it feels like we are stumbling, lurching from crisis to crisis as if somehow the wheels have just come off. The atmosphere could easily turn febrile. Overwhelmingly sad, depressed and concerned all at the same time. Things have to change.

    We've spent too long playing political games and worshipping the individual, and we have taken our eyes off the main job of building a country we are proud to live in.
    Agreed entirely.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    edited June 2017

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    I'd think you'd know better than that. Such an accident is *always* the result of multiple causal factors. Cuts may be one of them, but it's wrong to concentrate on that when there were probably many other failures as well that contributed.
    +1.

    There'll be a reason the fire started inside the flat.
    There'll be a reason why it quickly spread to the rest of the block.
    There'll be a reason why people weren't alerted or evacuated quickly enough.
    AFAICS there isn't yet any reason to fault the emergency response?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    CD13 said:

    Mr JohnL,

    "You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent."

    Two points. If it's incredible, then it isn't believable. And if you have a deficit, the debt is bound to increase.

    What were Labour's plans for the deficit by the way? The main problem for Labour is that the idea of spending more to get out of debt really is incredible.

    A quick google finds that Labour's manifesto committed them to debt reduction and distinguishes between investment and operational spending.
    http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TGOHF said:

    Unemployment down 50k.

    Must be due to Hammond being a Remainer or something.

    Strong and stable employment figures.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Well he's knob then.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    Brexiteers are economic terrorists.

    They should have to pay an extra 25% a year in income tax and 400% extra in council tax.
    We could increase George's tax rates to pay for the hundreds of billions extra he borrowed.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.

    How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.

    When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.

    Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.

    I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.

    In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
    Every canvasser in every election has a night when they get a bad street, and are suddenly convinced of imminent defeat. When it's the candidate they need lots of tea and reassurance.

    Statistically it is far more likely that Mr Herdson stumbled across such a street, and was "lucky" that this was followed by a bad result, than it is that the small sample of voters he spoke to that night (with big MOE) was both truly representative and indicating a late swing. Particularly since the best analysis we have right now doesn't reveal any evidence of a late swing - the result was nailed on for a fortnight during which Mr H was out visiting lots of other streets and coming home happy of victory.

    As humans we see patterns in and links between things, and work hard to find them even when they don't exist.
    I found it throughout canvassing all over the constituency. Not a one-off. As it proved on the night.
    I must have missed your predictions that the Tories were to lose their majority.
    I posted several times that I had backed NOM and Lab Maj.
    OK, kudos. I trust you enjoy this year's luxury holiday! ;)
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,989
    CD13 said:

    Mr JohnL,

    "You are now talking about debt which Osborne increased by an incredible 50 per cent."

    Two points. If it's incredible, then it isn't believable. And if you have a deficit, the debt is bound to increase.

    What were Labour's plans for the deficit by the way? The main problem for Labour is that the idea of spending more to get out of debt really is incredible.

    Spending on consumption gets you into more debt. Spending on investment (infrastructure, education and training etc) gives a return that can get you out of debt if the return is greater than the cost of borrowing.

    All businesses recognise the difference between day to day spending and capital investment. This government and many commentators on this blog seem incapable of making this distinction. They think like housewives managing a weekly budget.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
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    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    atia2 said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Yes, it's fine if you're also prepared to fund a Scandinavian state to ensure high standards. UK rapidly losing its first world status.
    Are you prepared to live within your means and run a trade surplus in order to fund a Scandinavian state ?
    Of course. I would be delighted to engage in productive activities to fund a high-quality state which levers the economic benefits of cooperation. I am not delighted to live in a country that underfunds its public services and believes that property ownership is a productive activity.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Smithson senior,

    Perhaps we should have a referendum on EU membership every five years? Had we done so, the pressure and frustration might not have built up for so long. In fact, it would have served as a check on the EU's inexorable progress to a nation state, or at least alerted the population to the political reality, and thus closed down the argument before it became so heated.


  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    How would you have known if it was safe or unsafe? Once we are used to something, it's human nature to assume that it's not problematic. This natural complacency is the cause of many accidents.

    Good point, felt safe and looked safe are meaningless.

    For instance, we live in a three-story townhouse of the sort increasingly popular with builders. Three of the four bedrooms are on the top floor. We've tried to work out how we'd evacuate in case of a fire (the staircase is uninterrupted from ground floor to top, so would act as a channel for fire), but it's a bit of a bugger. We've got something in one room we can dangle out of the window to act as a rope, but it's far from ideal.

    You can buy chain ladders that clip over a windowsill, they aren't even that expensive.
  • Options

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    Many political views on the fire on twitter mainly centring around Tory cuts and lax regulations for their (the Tories') landlord friends.

    Cuts is a bit of an odd one seeing as the building has just been refurbished and almost certainly went through some rigorous planning and inspection. Regulations are more plausible, it will be interesting to see if the cladding is a problem and why. One thing that has long concerned me is knock-off parts and material in the supply chains of a lot of industries, it is increasingly difficult to be sure what you are buying is what is claims to be.

    I'm ashamed to say this was one of my first thoughts that it would be blamed on "Tory cuts." Labour won't come out and say it directly but I see social media is well and truly up and running on this.

    Because it is true.
    I'd think you'd know better than that. Such an accident is *always* the result of multiple causal factors. Cuts may be one of them, but it's wrong to concentrate on that when there were probably many other failures as well that contributed.
    You're right, of course, but I can only speak from my experience. My service has cut dramatically and we've been close to disaster a few times on jobs I've been too because of not enough resources, and have lost a number of buildings that we might have saved with a speedier and weightier attack. There are a number of court cases pending throughout the country bought by insurance companies against local fire services.
    I've never argued for a gold plated Porsche fire engine on every street corner crewd by a bus full of firefighters, just enough and in the right places. We don't have that anymore.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,859
    I read austerity is over

    Paid for by??

    Lab had £41 Bn of tax rises

    Whats May got MMMT (Mays Magic Money Tree)
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    TOPPING said:

    Perhaps now they will finally stop building these death traps

    Those "events" coming thick and fast!

    I grew up in a tower block (in Denmark), lived there for about 15 years. Never experienced better maintenance and always felt safe. Clearly more people are exposed to risk than in a single family house, so high standards are needed, but there's nothing wrong with the idea per se.
    Hong Kong manages.
    Ahem. The Garley Building.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Garley_Building_fire
    The simple truth is that even without insanities like ACM, all tall buildings are fire traps.

    Keeping inflammable materials out of a structure is close to impossible. The US Navy regularly audits it's ships - and keeps finding multiple tons of unauthorised materials on board. And that is in very closed environment with military discipline. Humans just accumulate stuff.
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    DavidL said:

    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Labour are more popular than the tories with everyone except the retired;

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2017-06-13/Employment-01.png

    They've become the wealthy pensioners party.

    Magic money tree for their client vote, austerity for everyone else.

    It's a shame. There are decent tory MP's who recognise and have sought to address intergenerational unfairness. eg;

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2017-02-28a.230.1

    Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
    Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
    On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.

    And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
    No, that is the legacy of a structural deficit where public spending was allowed to run far ahead of tax revenues in anticipation of growth that never came. We got a massive recession instead.

    Despite Osborne's efforts we are still overspending and any government elected for the next several years would have to face the consequences.
    If Osborne had, say, frozen the State Pension (in common with all other benefits) and introduced CGT on primary residence sales the deficit would have been eliminated now, albeit at a big electoral cost. It's a political choice that it's still there.
    Inflation is not a capital gain.

    If he had done that, then between punitive stamp duty and tax on inflation nobody would be able to afford to move at all. The deficit would get worse.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,068
    TGOHF said:

    Unemployment down 50k.

    Must be due to Hammond being a Remainer or something.

    Any word on the Scottish figure?

    Prepares for 'up because of referendum uncertainty & Nat incompetence', or 'down because of the broad shoulders of strong & stable UK'.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,924

    Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?

    Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.

    Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.

    Well if you read the my post and the article is explains it clearly

    The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.

    This is what you voted for.
    Brexit = making us all poorer

    I made a nice few quid!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,414

    Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.

    The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.

    The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.

    I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion

    Immigration was a major part of the leave vote and we should ignore it then ?
    Immigration wasn't on the ballot paper
    Keep your head in the sand pal.
    Daniel Hannan, member of the Vote Leave board, says the referendum had nothing to do with immigration
    Dominic Cumming said the main factor was £350 million for the NHS.
    Yup.
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