Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
You are confusing "what we desperately need" - in other words what you would like, with what the electorate voted for a year ago. Apart from a few sulkng fools on here most people just want it over and done with, only the lib dems disagree and they're an irrelevance.
Nope - on a personal level I will be fine. The country, though, is heading for an absolute shellacking thanks to the delusions and lies of the privileged, very wealthy, establishment right wingers who led the Leave and Remain campaigns last year. If you think that people are now just going to forget Brexit and get on with it, let me tell you about some magic beans I have for sale at a very reasonable price, they do extraordinary things ...
GE2015 and GE2017 have been disasters for the polling industry, to lose one GE may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. Will there be another inquiry?
Probably a group hug and they will promise to do better next time.
One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.
If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.
I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
It's been said before, but... the random sample + UNS really is dead. Now we know what will replace it;
The yougov *massive panel that they know everything about then measure how opinions are swinging around* type modelling which can figure out correlations between voters and project FPTP seat numbers with way more accuracy.
We don't know that at all. What we know is the Yougov model gave the right-ish answer this time. That might be coincidence. If there is a range of different predictions from pollsters, then one of them will be more correct than the others but we cannot be sure if that is due to superior methodology or simple blind chance.
Polling is always fighting the last war. Just two short years ago in GE2015 the star performer was the Crosby-Textor private polling for the Conservative Party. We can imagine this year Crosby-Textor gave massive Tory leads else why risk calling the election in the first place? Even as we speak, the "wrong" pollsters will be tweaking their weightings so the right answer pops out but the right answer for 2017 may not be the right answer for 2022 -- or even for this October.
Oh, and Survation just texted me to say their poll was the most accurate by dint of believing self-reported likelihood to vote -- vindicated before the election by the Prosser and BES research that was posted on pb before polling day.
+1/2
YouGov gave the best answer this time because the movement in opinion was definitely not the usual UNS but strongly correlated with age and education. As an election that saw significant demographic switches from the previous one, it was most unusual. YouGov developed a demographically-driven model at just the right moment.
Where you are right is that there is no guarantee YouGov will be best next time. I would assume the demographic switch is done, and another election will simply be a question of whether or not Labour momentum carries through to a majority. If there are no strong swings differentiated by demography, then YouGov modelling will add little value (apart from a larger sample), and its errors at seat level will achieve nothing except providing PB with red herring betting tips and pages of ensuing discussion.
And, as you say, Survation got very close simply by not doctoring their traditional poll like everyone else. The interesting question here is that the Survation guy on BBCDP insisted that the difference wasn't very much to do with youth turnout - he said before June 8th that his poll indicated a hung (balanced) parliament even if it was adjusted for 2015 turnout. He wasn't eloquent enough to explain further without a one-hour lecture slot and PowerPoint slides, but this is a key issue worth further investigation.
Labour are more popular than the tories with everyone except the retired;
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
No, that is the legacy of a structural deficit where public spending was allowed to run far ahead of tax revenues in anticipation of growth that never came. We got a massive recession instead.
Despite Osborne's efforts we are still overspending and any government elected for the next several years would have to face the consequences.
If Osborne had, say, frozen the State Pension (in common with all other benefits) and introduced CGT on primary residence sales the deficit would have been eliminated now, albeit at a big electoral cost. It's a political choice that it's still there.
I think that is wildly optimistic on 2 fronts. Firstly, the uplifts that pensioners have received are not sufficient to pay down the deficit. They have largely been nominal increases with little increase in the real value of pensions in any event. Secondly, the economic consequences of imposing CGT on domestic residences would have been to collapse the housing market forcing us into another serious recession reducing the tax base overall and increasing spending. We are already at the point where most economists think the tax paid is a restraint on growth in the economy.
It is undoubtedly true that pensioners were favoured over the young and working population and that this was done for political reasons. May tried to change that in 3 different ways (triple lock, WFA and Dementia tax) and lost her majority. I fear the political lesson learned from that is unlikely to change the balance in future.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
You are confusing "what we desperately need" - in other words what you would like, with what the electorate voted for a year ago. Apart from a few sulkng fools on here most people just want it over and done with, only the lib dems disagree and they're an irrelevance.
Nope - on a personal level I will be fine. The country, though, is heading for an absolute shellacking thanks to the delusions and lies of the privileged, very wealthy, establishment right wingers who led the Leave and Remain campaigns last year. If you think that people are now just going to forget Brexit and get on with it, let me tell you about some magic beans I have for sale at a very reasonable price, they do extraordinary things ...
People may want to get it over and done with and forget about it. That's tough, because, they won't be able to forget about the consequences.
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
You are confusing "what we desperately need" - in other words what you would like, with what the electorate voted for a year ago. Apart from a few sulkng fools on here most people just want it over and done with, only the lib dems disagree and they're an irrelevance.
Nope - on a personal level I will be fine. The country, though, is heading for an absolute shellacking thanks to the delusions and lies of the privileged, very wealthy, establishment right wingers who led the Leave and Remain campaigns last year. If you think that people are now just going to forget Brexit and get on with it, let me tell you about some magic beans I have for sale at a very reasonable price, they do extraordinary things ...
One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.
If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.
I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
Anecdote - many school classrooms are temporary (wooden!) buildings, which do not legally require fire alarms. A while ago I spoke to a senior teacher asking for a fire alarm system to be put in in one set of buildings anyway, because although what we had was legal I didn't feel it was safe.
Fair play, they've agreed with me and regulations or no have put the system in, which has cost them a bit when money isn't plentiful. I'm off to work now and when I see him I'm going to thank him again.
Your point about the regulations rings all too horribly true. But this - this is just awful.
Regardless of whether we leave or not, an extension to the timetable would be a good thing.
Yep, extended the timetable. Talk about transitional arrangements.
Within three or four years enough people will have had second thoughts to nullify the result frankly.
There always should have been a threshold for something so momentous. A small win is just a recipe for division. As Farage says, if he had lost by a couple of percent or so, he would be back arguing for another vote the following morning.
One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.
If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.
I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
Regardless of whether we leave or not, an extension to the timetable would be a good thing.
Yep, extended the timetable. Talk about transitional arrangements.
Within three or four years enough people will have had second thoughts to nullify the result frankly.
There always should have been a threshold for something so momentous. A small win is just a recipe for division. As Farage says, if he had lost by a couple of percent or so, he would be back arguing for another vote the following morning.
One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.
If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.
I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
Anecdote - many school classrooms are temporary (wooden!) buildings, which do not legally require fire alarms. A while ago I spoke to a senior teacher asking for a fire alarm system to be put in in one set of buildings anyway, because although what we had was legal I didn't feel it was safe.
Fair play, they've agreed with me and regulations or no have put the system in, which has cost them a bit when money isn't plentiful. I'm off to work now and when I see him I'm going to thank him again.
Your point about the regulations rings all too horribly true. But this - this is just awful.
That's the thing about regulations - the Titanic comfortably exceeded the number of lifeboats required.
You really have to ask, what sort of idiot (a cost constrained one - ed?) puts flammable cladding on the exterior of a building?
apparently the fire started near the top of the tower, so hopefully very few were trapped.
I hope you're right - but its an odd sort of fire that spreads downwards.....What the fiddle they are doing having flammable material on the exteriors of buildings beats me....
From later reports, it appears the fire started much lower down.
Given the building had only just been refurbished, it seems extraordinary that combustible external cladding might have been used. Possibly more likely that the flammable material the uPVC window frames and surrounds - which are in common usage ?
What I find still more incredible about this fire - and it does indeed seem that the external panels were catching fire from eyewitness accounts so extraordinary or not it is obviously true lowed
It sounds as though 300 people may have been killed. I am hoping that figure is as wildly wrong in the same direction as my guesses about the Tory lead.
From pure guesswork and what I've been reading, there may be several causal factors. All of these may be wrong and plucked out of my backside:
The main 'root' cause: a fridge explosion? Flammable panels, allowing fire to spread along the exterior Means for the fire to get from the outside to interior - or did fire spread internally? Alleged signs stating residents should remain in their flats in case of fire. Inadequate fire suppression and escape mechanisms. The timing of the fire, when the flats will be full and residents asleep.
And I daresay there will be many more.
It seems unfair to comment on the emergency services' response: it's early days and there are others on her better equipped to do so. I just hope that as many people as possible are safe, including firefighters.
Many high rise blocks and multi occupancy accomodation blocks have "Stay put" evacuation policies and/or phased evacuation or delayed fire alarm sounding. It's a wise and sensible evacuation policy, but it does need the sysyems to be robust and for the occupants to understand the system. On the point about resources and response, it's difficult to say without talking politics, but LFB ate the biggest in the country and should be able to cope,
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
So Osborne didn't cut fast enough?
Or Osborne cut too fast and choked off economic growth.
That post looks truly horrifyingly prescient. And it was written seven months ago. It's not as though there hasn't been time to make changes.
I wonder if Khan had been informed.
Buck stops with the RBKC......Tory controlled for ever - though hopefully now with a foresight of their own mortality.....given their new MP, who I suspect will be on their case with a vengeance.....
MATHS genius Rachel Riley has reportedly called full time on football TV presenting after suffering online abuse for remarks she made about Tottenham Hotspur.
Trolls kicked off on social media when the Countdown host called Spurs’ performance in their crucial loss to West Ham a “proper bottle job”.
GE2015 and GE2017 have been disasters for the polling industry, to lose one GE may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. Will there be another inquiry?
Probably a group hug and they will promise to do better next time.
If younger voters start failing to turnout again, another polling disaster is pretty much nailed on. If people don't do what they say they will, no form of polling can really work.
Nevertheless, polling people for their personal opinions and then not believing their responses seems a particularly ludicrous and cynical way to proceed, so I would hope that the days of multiple "adjustments" are over.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
So Osborne didn't cut fast enough?
Or Osborne cut too fast and choked off economic growth.
If May is not contemplating changing her approach to Brexit negotiations, then she will find herself out of a job sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, according to The Telegraph, there have indeed been cross-party talks regarding a Soft Brexit. While Corbyn and McDonnell are likely to not want to engage, that doesn't mean much of the PLP - who favour a more softer Brexit - will not. So I wouldn't conclude so early that we won't get a Soft Brexit - I'd actually even go as far as to say, that the signs are pretty positive in that direction. What Mrs May seems to not quite understand is that she no longer dictate terms: she lost the basis to do that on June 8th. She is now at the mercy of Cabinet who will want some kind of deal to be achieved.
I'd guess that there is a majority of Con/Lab/LD MPs who'd make rather a good coalition at the moment. Of course it won't happen. I also despair at the notion of an end to austerity - the country is broke - we need [sensible] cuts and tax rises equally shared as the country is now poorer than it was. chances of any of that happening - ZERO.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Quite possibly. But she is 90 and does not get that. She does know she can't get a bus into town anymore, though. And she gets a vote!
GE2015 and GE2017 have been disasters for the polling industry, to lose one GE may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. Will there be another inquiry?
Probably a group hug and they will promise to do better next time.
Managed to keep my shirt and even make a few bob. UK elections are very tough to read though..
Hoping my friend in Kensington isn't in that fire. Was surprised when I heard she'd voted in Kensington to be fair . 99% chance she is fine.
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
You are confusing "what we desperately need" - in other words what you would like, with what the electorate voted for a year ago. Apart from a few sulkng fools on here most people just want it over and done with, only the lib dems disagree and they're an irrelevance.
You are right, armageddon won't happen, we need them and they need us trade will carry on, we will gain more control of our borders. We will get a huge exit fee, so financially we will contributing for a while after exit but will that change a lot. We put a lot in, without having much influence.
There is a positive opportunity to grasp when we leave, that's where the narrative should be. I don't trust the politician's too much, one of their big gravy train's will be shut down, a proportion will want to look after their own.
A quick quiz for all the whining pro EU lefties, who said this:
Social EU legislation, which supposedly leads to better working conditions, has not saved one job and is riddled with opt-outs for employers to largely ignore any perceived benefits they may bring to workers. But it is making zero-hour contracts and agency-working the norm while undermining collective bargaining and full-time, secure employment. Meanwhile, 10,000 manufacturing jobs in the East Midlands still hang in the balance because EU law demanded that the crucial Thameslink contract go to Siemens in Germany rather than Bombardier in Derby.
Today, unemployment in the eurozone is at a record 12%. In the countries hit hardest by the "troika" of banks and bureaucrats, youth unemployment tops 60% and the millions of personal tragedies of lost homes, jobs, pensions and services are testament to the sick joke of "social Europe".
The raft of EU treaties are, as Tony Benn once said, nothing more than a cast-iron manifesto for capitalism that demands the chaos of the complete free movement of capital, goods, services and labour. It is clear that Greece, Spain, Cyprus and the rest need investment, not more austerity and savage cuts to essential public services, but, locked in the eurozone, the only option left is exactly that.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
So Osborne didn't cut fast enough?
Or Osborne cut too fast and choked off economic growth.
Regardless of whether we leave or not, an extension to the timetable would be a good thing.
Yep, extended the timetable. Talk about transitional arrangements.
Within three or four years enough people will have had second thoughts to nullify the result frankly.
There always should have been a threshold for something so momentous. A small win is just a recipe for division. As Farage says, if he had lost by a couple of percent or so, he would be back arguing for another vote the following morning.
Thresholds, like the George Cunningham amendment to Scottish Devolution, store up more trouble for the long run, as the winners can plausibly argue that they were cheated. A big problem in our relationship with the EU is that people believed no matter how they vote, they get more Europe. ignoring the referendum result would make things very toxic.
Mr. Pulpstar, although I'm playing with tiny stakes compared to most here, I was lucky most of my bets were on the Lib Dem seat numbers and Scottish Conservatives. Still would've been miles better if the blues hadn't buggered it up so badly.
Mr. Felix, I agree it won't happen, but it could and would be quite interesting.
Imagine: May and Corbyn cut out of power, a coalition of the best talent across parties in government, and the media and electorate completely bamboozled by what the hell is going on.
Edited extra bit: and, Mr. Pulpstar, I hope your friend is ok.
It looks like the tower block has been refurbed recently, which means lots of cables and pipes will have been retrofitted via trunking and holes drilled in floors and walls. This is fine if the holes are sealed properly, but they never are and that is usually one of the main causes of fire spread in a building like this.
Prof Scully has come out well too in his Welsh polling .Prof JC remains the king however,his exit poll was another bullseye.The betting markets were as bad a guide as some of the pollsters too.Even reports on the ground game were hoplelessly wrong-the Tories were closing in on Dennis Skinner's Bolsover according to this nonsense. You Gov did well but Survation is now the gold standard.The rest have probably suffered long-term reputational damage.Ipsos Mori and ICM and the rest have got some explaining to do.
One survivor has stated that the fire alarm in his flat went off when he opened the door. Another has said his didn't work at all. A third has stated they have been asking for a building wide fire alarm.
If those are borne out, although it will be too little too late, somebody needs prosecuting.
I've been talking about the problems with building standards on here for years. Not the actual written standards - though it seems they might have been insufficient here - but the way builders are cutting corners to those standards, and the incapability of inspectors to check.
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
Anecdote - many school classrooms are temporary (wooden!) buildings, which do not legally require fire alarms. A while ago I spoke to a senior teacher asking for a fire alarm system to be put in in one set of buildings anyway, because although what we had was legal I didn't feel it was safe.
Fair play, they've agreed with me and regulations or no have put the system in, which has cost them a bit when money isn't plentiful. I'm off to work now and when I see him I'm going to thank him again.
Your point about the regulations rings all too horribly true. But this - this is just awful.
Wouldn't a visit from a friendly fire officer have given some pointers? When they came around to my old house (Hampshire used to send them around to everybody who was renting - at least I moved twice, and got a visit at each house) he gave advice over and above the regulations.
A further anecdote: a good friend works at a relatively new-build public school. After recent terrorist attacks the school did and audit on their plans. One thing that was noted was that the ground- and first-floor windows only opened a few inches, to allow air in but people not to fall out. This prevented them from being used for escape in certain circumstances.
It was then pointed out that there is actually a hidden catch in the window which, when pressed, allows them to be opened fully (as there are in some part-opening residential windows). Needless to say the teachers have been told about this, but not the pupils!
Planning for all possible circumstances is difficult, and sometime systems designed to protect against one eventuality can actively be detrimental in another.
Clare Foges in The Times yesterday not exactly representing the Cameroons very well. If it were only 'naive' 18-24-year-olds backing Jeremy Corbyn, then Labour would not have made gains on June 8th. The reality is, as YouGov showed yesterday in their post-election data, is that the working age population generally is becoming more and more disenchanted with the Conservative Party. It is far harder to dismiss those in their thirties and forties as simply 'naive.' For all the talk that 18-24-year-olds just want unaffordable freebies, the exact same assertion could be directed at the over 65s with the WFA, The Triple Lock and so on.
I think Mortimer makes some good points when it comes to George Osborne. While much of the Conservative campaign issues stem from May and her advisors, a lot of the 'bread and butter' issues which made things difficult for the Tories go back to Osborne's time as Chancellor. He, like Brown, made the mistake of viewing everything through a short-term political lens which meant that the calculation was made to place the burden of austerity far harshly on the working age population than those who are retired. The result is many of the working age population are now turning their backs on the Conservative Party. That is the real divide in terms of demographics: not simply 'naive' 18-24-year-olds versus 'sensible' over 65s. To act as though only my generation entertain fantasy economics is just a nonsense. Voters across the board have been shown to possess some level of cognitive dissonance and to believe in fantasy economics. It was Over 65s after all, who overwhelmingly voted Leave a year ago - a campaign which told us that there would be £350m per week for the NHS if we left the EU.
It would be interesting to compare home ownership levels by age and region with Conservative support.
I suspect there would be a very close correlation.
When people reach their thirties without being able to buy a home they become doubtful that they will ever be able to. There will be many such people reaching that conclusion now, especially in London, and they wont be happy with the government.
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Considering the Conservatives ran a hash of a campaign and still got nearly 13.7m votes, it does make you wonder how many the party would have got without the cock ups. I sampled postal votes 2 weeks ahead of election day and there was a definite move between them and the final result.
A quick quiz for all the whining pro EU lefties, who said this:
Social EU legislation, which supposedly leads to better working conditions, has not saved one job and is riddled with opt-outs for employers to largely ignore any perceived benefits they may bring to workers. But it is making zero-hour contracts and agency-working the norm while undermining collective bargaining and full-time, secure employment. Meanwhile, 10,000 manufacturing jobs in the East Midlands still hang in the balance because EU law demanded that the crucial Thameslink contract go to Siemens in Germany rather than Bombardier in Derby.
Today, unemployment in the eurozone is at a record 12%. In the countries hit hardest by the "troika" of banks and bureaucrats, youth unemployment tops 60% and the millions of personal tragedies of lost homes, jobs, pensions and services are testament to the sick joke of "social Europe".
The raft of EU treaties are, as Tony Benn once said, nothing more than a cast-iron manifesto for capitalism that demands the chaos of the complete free movement of capital, goods, services and labour. It is clear that Greece, Spain, Cyprus and the rest need investment, not more austerity and savage cuts to essential public services, but, locked in the eurozone, the only option left is exactly that.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
Prof Scully has come out well too in his Welsh polling .Prof JC remains the king however,his exit poll was another bullseye.The betting markets were as bad a guide as some of the pollsters too.Even reports on the ground game were hoplelessly wrong-the Tories were closing in on Dennis Skinner's Bolsover according to this nonsense. You Gov did well but Survation is now the gold standard.The rest have probably suffered long-term reputational damage.Ipsos Mori and ICM and the rest have got some explaining to do.
The Tories may not have won Bolsover but they did get a 7% swing to them in contrast to the 2% national swing to Labour and Skinner's majority is now 5000 down from 11 000 in 2015 and it is a marginal seat
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Very similar to my views. Since the election, I've lost total faith in the conservatives to be able to negotiate a good deal. I can't see their being a hard brexit majority either.
People are fed up with cuts and I think thats become absolutely clear.
I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.
How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.
When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Quite possibly. But she is 90 and does not get that. She does know she can't get a bus into town anymore, though. And she gets a vote!
People remember negative changes more than positive changes.
And people are more likely to blame for something detrimental than praise for something positive.
Change is therefore dangerous for governments and so problems are allowed to increase and become ever more difficult to resolve. Care policy for the elderly is a classic example of this.
Mr. Pulpstar, although I'm playing with tiny stakes compared to most here, I was lucky most of my bets were on the Lib Dem seat numbers and Scottish Conservatives. Still would've been miles better if the blues hadn't buggered it up so badly.
Mr. Felix, I agree it won't happen, but it could and would be quite interesting.
Imagine: May and Corbyn cut out of power, a coalition of the best talent across parties in government, and the media and electorate completely bamboozled by what the hell is going on.
Edited extra bit: and, Mr. Pulpstar, I hope your friend is ok.
Think we should select 650 people at random from across the uk, house them in that building by the thames whos current residents are occupying under false pretences. Give them a week to define our brexit strategy and let them send a small team to brussels comprising of the ones that made most sense and impact.. Problem solved, select another 650 ..... And so on until our problems are resolved without party polotivc getting in the way
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
Considering the Conservatives ran a hash of a campaign and still got nearly 13.7m votes, it does make you wonder how many the party would have got without the cock ups. I sampled postal votes 2 weeks ahead of election day and there was a definite move between them and the final result.
401 votes would have given an overall majority. Therefore, every cock up made the difference.
Prof Scully has come out well too in his Welsh polling .Prof JC remains the king however,his exit poll was another bullseye.The betting markets were as bad a guide as some of the pollsters too.Even reports on the ground game were hoplelessly wrong-the Tories were closing in on Dennis Skinner's Bolsover according to this nonsense. You Gov did well but Survation is now the gold standard.The rest have probably suffered long-term reputational damage.Ipsos Mori and ICM and the rest have got some explaining to do.
The Tories may not have won Bolsover but they did get a 7% swing to them in contrast to the 2% national swing to Labour and Skinner's majority is now 5000 down from 11 000 in 2015 and it is a marginal seat
Give Ladbrokes a ring and ask them to price up 'Con gain Bolsover' for the next GE. You could be a rich man. Or not.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Welcome back to sanity, Big G.
Once DUP courting is complete, I hope Theresa May - or whoever is advising her right now - will realise that a Tory bunker Brexit will destroy the party.
She absolutely needs cross party support, and needs to figure out how to do that given Corbyn has so much to gain from sitting it out. However I do not think Corbyn can afford to do so indefinitely either. The contradictions in the Labour Party will return sooner or later.
A clear majority of parliamentarians do not want to destroy the economy. That implies extending the deadline and pursuing EFTA en route to something else, with a specific deal on the Irish border.
We can continue the argument over whether to go further in time toward a bespoke FTA as the government have been pursuing to date, or anything else.
Importantly, we need a clear signpost on this urgently. The economy is turning and it's pretty clear that Brexit is responsible.
Meanwhile, public opinion remains very fickle. I still believe it is quite likely (40%) that polls will turn against Brexit. If so, we the political pressure to stay where we are will be irresistible.
Brexiters ought to be making the case now for a cross party sanctioned EFTA. Remainers need to continue arguing against Brexit in terms the public understand - ie the real hit to our wallets.
This fire reminds me somewhat of the London gas explosion in 'To Play the King'. Michael Dobbs has been strangely prescient about most things. Sadly this is 2017 and not 1993.
Mr. Pulpstar, although I'm playing with tiny stakes compared to most here, I was lucky most of my bets were on the Lib Dem seat numbers and Scottish Conservatives. Still would've been miles better if the blues hadn't buggered it up so badly.
Mr. Felix, I agree it won't happen, but it could and would be quite interesting.
Imagine: May and Corbyn cut out of power, a coalition of the best talent across parties in government, and the media and electorate completely bamboozled by what the hell is going on.
Edited extra bit: and, Mr. Pulpstar, I hope your friend is ok.
Think we should select 650 people at random from across the uk, house them in that building by the thames whos current residents are occupying under false pretences. Give them a week to define our brexit strategy and let them send a small team to brussels comprising of the ones that made most sense and impact.. Problem solved, select another 650 ..... And so on until our problems are resolved without party polotivc getting in the way
The early experiments with Citizens Juries were actually quite promising. Not that politicians want to know, of course.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
Actually, Nick Palmer of this parish has much to do with the bus mess, as he was partly responsible for the free bus pass for pensioners. This has devastated many village services as the council and service provider disagree about how long people are on the journey for - they are noted when they enter the bus, but not when they leave.
It's in the council's interest to say that the journeys are short, as that means they pay the provider less. It's also led to increased bus fares for the farepayers, further reducing travel (though that may have happened anyway).
Many rural pensioners have therefore been left with a free bus pass, but no bus services.
GE2015 and GE2017 have been disasters for the polling industry, to lose one GE may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness. Will there be another inquiry?
Probably a group hug and they will promise to do better next time.
Managed to keep my shirt and even make a few bob. UK elections are very tough to read though..
Hoping my friend in Kensington isn't in that fire. Was surprised when I heard she'd voted in Kensington to be fair . 99% chance she is fine.
There are some parts of Kensington constituency which are defo typical inner city.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
So Osborne didn't cut fast enough?
Or Osborne cut too fast and choked off economic growth.
That will be why the economy has grown so strongly over the last 7 years then, including the creation of over 2.5 million new jobs.
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
Do not exclude the influence of Ruth Davidson and the Lib Dems who will retain support for the government if they see a softer approach
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Very similar to my views. Since the election, I've lost total faith in the conservatives to be able to negotiate a good deal. I can't see their being a hard brexit majority either.
People are fed up with cuts and I think thats become absolutely clear.
And yet only two years ago they bought the austerity and "we are on the right road, don't let Labour ruin it" argument.
This fire reminds me somewhat of the London gas explosion in 'To Play the King'. Michael Dobbs has been strangely prescient about most things. Sadly this is 2017 and not 1993.
Funnily enough, I thought exactly the same thing this morning when I saw the news.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
You are absolutely right about people's experiences
Have to say mine are not bad at all. Very minor interaction with public services - 1 Gp visit and one blood test in about 5 years - both admirably efficient and quick. Even managed only 1 visit ever to A&E with 3 kids which must be some kind of record - again quick and efficient but I guess we ere lucky
Children's schools the main one, and they seem OK. Dripping with laptops, iPads, double glazing replacements, electronic whiteboards, good audiovisual kit, and every primary school class has a TA so the pupil:teacher ratio is really 15:1 as far as I can see. Some buildings are a bit tired.
OK potholes are a disgrace but otherwise we clearly live in a rich country. I know I am lucky generally with a decent job etc and perhaps lucky specifically where I live (?)
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
Considering the Conservatives ran a hash of a campaign and still got nearly 13.7m votes, it does make you wonder how many the party would have got without the cock ups. I sampled postal votes 2 weeks ahead of election day and there was a definite move between them and the final result.
Drawing "definite" conclusions like that is absurd. If the verification was run properly, you shouldn't have been able to see many if any of the votes. If you did see some, they are unlikely to have been a good sample. And the population of people with postal votes is clearly skewed in several ways from the general population of voters.
Yet with all these potential biases and a truly massive margin of error, you prefer to conclude definitely that there was a late swing?
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Welcome back to sanity, Big G.
Once DUP courting is complete, I hope Theresa May - or whoever is advising her right now - will realise that a Tory bunker Brexit will destroy the party.
She absolutely needs cross party support, and needs to figure out how to do that given Corbyn has so much to gain from sitting it out. However I do not think Corbyn can afford to do so indefinitely either. The contradictions in the Labour Party will return sooner or later.
A clear majority of parliamentarians do not want to destroy the economy. That implies extending the deadline and pursuing EFTA en route to something else, with a specific deal on the Irish border.
We can continue the argument over whether to go further in time toward a bespoke FTA as the government have been pursuing to date, or anything else.
Importantly, we need a clear signpost on this urgently. The economy is turning and it's pretty clear that Brexit is responsible.
Meanwhile, public opinion remains very fickle. I still believe it is quite likely (40%) that polls will turn against Brexit. If so, we the political pressure to stay where we are will be irresistible.
Brexiters ought to be making the case now for a cross party sanctioned EFTA. Remainers need to continue arguing against Brexit in terms the public understand - ie the real hit to our wallets.
If we head into a bad recession and it seems clear to people that Brexit will make it worse then I fully expect the polls (for Leave) to change.
Hmm ...so a soft Bexit means getting what we want?
If we could get what we want, as if we could wander round in a supermarket, I'd be all for it. We are in for tough negotiating, so the solution is to present a garbled version of a wish-list?
My version of the wish-list, is tariff-free trade, changes to FOM (basically control of our own border) and control of our own laws. I suspect that will never be on offer . At least the LDs are honest anti-democrats.
When we have a second referendum, I will lead the demand for a second and third GEs when I don't like the result, even more so when the Government has a mid-cycle dip and polls turn against them. The people will have changed their mind - we must have a new GE when this happens.
My view is that the result of the referendum was always in doubt, because the self-appointed leaders, the great and the good (in their own eyes) aren't used to not getting their own way. The squealing has been marvellous to behold, but it's time the plebs were put back in their box.
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Certainly not both the single market and the customs union. That would be utterly pointless, and probably worse than just staying in the EU, because we've have almost all the rules and compliance costs with no vote or say in anything at all.
It would very likely mean we re-join the EU again in the next 10 years, possibly with even fewer opt-outs (the EU likes those who stand against it be seen to be worse off for having done so).
EFTA-EEA is something I think both sides could accept.
Wake up this morning to yet another unimaginable horror in London and can only pray that as many as possible escape that towering inferno.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
Welcome back to sanity, Big G.
Once DUP courting is complete, I hope Theresa May - or whoever is advising her right now - will realise that a Tory bunker Brexit will destroy the party.
She absolutely needs cross party support, and needs to figure out how to do that given Corbyn has so much to gain from sitting it out. However I do not think Corbyn can afford to do so indefinitely either. The contradictions in the Labour Party will return sooner or later.
A clear majority of parliamentarians do not want to destroy the economy. That implies extending the deadline and pursuing EFTA en route to something else, with a specific deal on the Irish border.
We can continue the argument over whether to go further in time toward a bespoke FTA as the government have been pursuing to date, or anything else.
Importantly, we need a clear signpost on this urgently. The economy is turning and it's pretty clear that Brexit is responsible.
Meanwhile, public opinion remains very fickle. I still believe it is quite likely (40%) that polls will turn against Brexit. If so, we the political pressure to stay where we are will be irresistible.
Brexiters ought to be making the case now for a cross party sanctioned EFTA. Remainers need to continue arguing against Brexit in terms the public understand - ie the real hit to our wallets.
My hope is that we are seeing a large review of positions in this post election period and that the move is to coalesce around a soft Brexit. I think that Corbyn will have problems down the line as his looks to a harder Brexit to give him powers to renationalise industries but in my opinion that view is likely to be a minority
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
Do not exclude the influence of Ruth Davidson and the Lib Dems who will retain support for the government if they see a softer approach
"It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit"
Sorry don't know how to do this blockquote thing yet.
Seems like it's the DUP to the rescue then, which will be ironic considering how they have been vilified.
Even an ardent Kipper like me is beginning to think like Big G, a softer landing would be much better for us all. Having said that I cannot understand anyone who says we will leave the single market but stay in the customs union, surely that is the worst of both worlds?
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
There are very many laws to pass over the next few years. Most will pass in principle, but most will be heavily amended in passing the Commons and Lords by the opposition, aided by some Tory rebels.
Hardly surprising when the Tories have spent the last 7 years throwing bribes at pensioners and cuts for everyone else
Spending keeps going up - where are these "cuts"?
On every front line service. Where I live we are down to 3 police officers on shift at any given time to cover a wide area. All our local schools have lost many hundreds of pounds per pupil with the same again to come. All the GP practices are short of cash, our hospital is threatened with closure due to cash shortage. Council funding grant from government cut 70% and the rest to go in a few years leading to mass cuts to frontline services. And that's just here - nationally you add in the abusive cuts to disabled support, making terminal cancer patients go and work, the devastating cuts to the armed forces - it would be a shorter list to say what hasn't been cut.
And that's the devastating legacy of George Osborne. A 70% increase in national debt at the same time as grinding austerity and imposed poverty.
So Osborne didn't cut fast enough?
Or Osborne cut too fast and choked off economic growth.
That will be why the economy has grown so strongly over the last 7 years then, including the creation of over 2.5 million new jobs.
Actually it hasn't grown strongly and growth per capita has been mediocre.
The lower than predicted growth is one reason why government borrowing has been hundreds of billions higher than Osborne predicted.
Creating millions of low skilled wealth consumption jobs isn't a benefit either.
The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.
The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.
Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest Tenant management organisation in England, running nearly 10,000 properties on behalf of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea - the entire council housing stock.
The TMO was set up on 1 April 1996[1] under the UK Government's 'Right to Manage' regulations.[2] Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest TMO in the UK[3] and is unique in being both the only TMO that runs the entire housing stock for the local council but also in being the only TMO that is also an ALMO (Arms Length Management Organisation).[4]
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
Do not exclude the influence of Ruth Davidson and the Lib Dems who will retain support for the government if they see a softer approach
Everyone is talking about and preparing for a softer approach to Brexit, across the political spectrum, except for the Tory ultras and Mrs May herself. Mrs M may not be a star performer, but she knows more than any of us and is not completely stupid. I am wondering therefore whether she plans to resign at some point soon, between the QS being agreed and the summer holidays?
If she is going, why be the person who changes tack on Brexit? Whereas if she is staying, surely she would understand that her previous approach is futile.
The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.
The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.
I am also now convinced that election canvassing (both doorstep and phone) samples a very skewed proportion of the population, biased towards the more elderly, the less socially active, and homeowners.
How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.
When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.
Except David Herdson did find it. Very late in the day.
I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.
In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
Brilliant article from Alastair Meeks yesterday. And pretty much bang on the money. The fantasist Brexit right has - through its delusion and mendacity - instituted a sustained period of precipitous national decline and opened the door to the populist left. That's some achievement.
Alastair asks where are all the centrist politicians to save us from this fate. The answer is that our electoral system has emasculated them. First past the post is utterly destructive.
Reportedly, May is not contemplating changing her approach to the Brexit negotiations. We'll have to see what that means, but if she is in denial of the new reality, this administration will not last long.
I quite agree about the electoral collapse of the centre. But I also blame the Conservative campaign in 2015 for deliberately targeting their coalition partners. Given Cameron is himself something of a centrist, this was a moral and strategic blunder.
On every level May is the wrong person to be fronting Brexit. She is inflexible, not particularly bright, unimaginative, distant and a prisoner of her backbenches. We desperately need a cross-party consensus that takes us to the softest Brexit possible - the one that Hammond seems to be pushing for. We won't get it. The Tory right and the labour left will see to it. I agree with Alastair Meeks that we are more than likely totally and utterly screwed. David Cameron's weakness in 2012/13 and his fear of Ed Miliband (!!!!) will cost this country a much higher sum than anything inflicted on us by the great crash.
It is the DUP who will now dictate Brexit not the Tory right or indeed the Labour left given May can only stay in office with their support and the DUP are demanding a softer Brexit
Do not exclude the influence of Ruth Davidson and the Lib Dems who will retain support for the government if they see a softer approach
Everyone is talking about and preparing for a softer approach to Brexit, across the political spectrum, except for the Tory ultras and Mrs May herself. Mrs M may not be a star performer, but she knows more than any of us and is not completely stupid. I am wondering therefore whether she plans to resign at some point soon, between the QS being agreed and the summer holidays?
If she is going, why be the person who changes tack on Brexit? Whereas if she is staying, surely she would understand that her previous approach is futile.
Nothing has changed, nothing has changed, nothing has changed...
Mr. Pulpstar, although I'm playing with tiny stakes compared to most here, I was lucky most of my bets were on the Lib Dem seat numbers and Scottish Conservatives. Still would've been miles better if the blues hadn't buggered it up so badly.
Mr. Felix, I agree it won't happen, but it could and would be quite interesting.
Imagine: May and Corbyn cut out of power, a coalition of the best talent across parties in government, and the media and electorate completely bamboozled by what the hell is going on.
Edited extra bit: and, Mr. Pulpstar, I hope your friend is ok.
Think we should select 650 people at random from across the uk, house them in that building by the thames whos current residents are occupying under false pretences. Give them a week to define our brexit strategy and let them send a small team to brussels comprising of the ones that made most sense and impact.. Problem solved, select another 650 ..... And so on until our problems are resolved without party polotivc getting in the way
The principle makes perfect sense, and if modern society survives long enough I find it very difficult to believe we won't eventually be governed in this way, or something like it.
The only problem is that it would put professional politicians out of a job, so how can they ever be persuaded to agree to it? Perhaps their role could evolve into something analogous to that of advocates in the legal system, but I think that would be a much more skilled job than that of the present-day politician, and we wouldn't need anything like 600+ of them. Maybe they could be given jobs for life in a purely advisory House of Lords - though I fear a lot of them are in it for the power, not just the money.
Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest Tenant management organisation in England, running nearly 10,000 properties on behalf of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea - the entire council housing stock.
The TMO was set up on 1 April 1996[1] under the UK Government's 'Right to Manage' regulations.[2] Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest TMO in the UK[3] and is unique in being both the only TMO that runs the entire housing stock for the local council but also in being the only TMO that is also an ALMO (Arms Length Management Organisation).[4]
My Borough did the same devolition of all the stock (small by RBK standards) to ALMO when under Tory control; it turned out to be management shambles, and when in coalition we played a part in bringing it back under council control.
The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.
The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
People won't vote for it. Or else why wouldn't they at any stage have voted for the LibDem's hypothecated taxes, or indeed Jezza's raid on the 1% last week.
I see we're yet again into cuts / austerity / spending / deficit arguments.
Yet nobody seems interested in the other side of the equation ie how to create more wealth.
Until the UK does that things are going to get worse.
Of course that's the case, spending money is piss easy, just ask Corbyn, and particularly so if you don't really care about the deficit or debt. Making money is much more difficult, and UK productivity has been dire for decades. There are no easy answers to sorting that out, so neither the politicians or public are much interested. We prefer simple answers about taxation, efficiency savings (cuts), and spending money we haven't actually earned yet.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
All very well, but they did inherit a £158 bn deficit. Deficits of that size don't take care of themselves.
They might have done if Osborne had thought more about growth than austerity. We had a peak deficit of around 6 per cent of GDP and a recovering economy. We'd not seen deficits that high since, oh, John Major was prime minister. In addition, while QE may have been necessary, it did entail Osborne handing over billions of pounds from his magic money tree to bankers and traders -- it was a political choice not to pay for more police or bus passes or bus passes for coppers.
Mr. Eagles, if we're outside the EU, how can the EU forcibly remove business from the UK?
Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.
Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.
The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.
The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.
Yep - my 90 year old mother-in-law has seen the bus she used to get from her village to Leamington cut to one day a week. Schools here are not replacing teachers; other services are being cut to the bone. It's the same story everywhere. We may not have had balance sheet austerity, but on the ground we certainly have. And it's people's experiences that count.
We haven't had austerity we've had wealth transfers.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Yes because in the 6th largest economy in the world we can't afford a bus and a barely adequate pension. Or basic human dignity for people dying of cancer. Or enough police and hospitals. Or to educate our kids properly.
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
People won't vote for it. Or else why wouldn't they at any stage have voted for the LibDem's hypothecated taxes, or indeed Jezza's raid on the 1% last week.
They didn't vote for it = they don't want it.
Given that expecting our politicians to work co-operatively together to resolve such problems looks futile, the solution is for the next government to have an unassailable majority and then force through wealth taxes and the other measures needed to fund things properly. That looks rather more likely today than it did last week.
Comments
There are lots of residents in brand new, and very expensive, high-rise flats who will be concerned this morning.
YouGov gave the best answer this time because the movement in opinion was definitely not the usual UNS but strongly correlated with age and education. As an election that saw significant demographic switches from the previous one, it was most unusual. YouGov developed a demographically-driven model at just the right moment.
Where you are right is that there is no guarantee YouGov will be best next time. I would assume the demographic switch is done, and another election will simply be a question of whether or not Labour momentum carries through to a majority. If there are no strong swings differentiated by demography, then YouGov modelling will add little value (apart from a larger sample), and its errors at seat level will achieve nothing except providing PB with red herring betting tips and pages of ensuing discussion.
And, as you say, Survation got very close simply by not doctoring their traditional poll like everyone else. The interesting question here is that the Survation guy on BBCDP insisted that the difference wasn't very much to do with youth turnout - he said before June 8th that his poll indicated a hung (balanced) parliament even if it was adjusted for 2015 turnout. He wasn't eloquent enough to explain further without a one-hour lecture slot and PowerPoint slides, but this is a key issue worth further investigation.
It is undoubtedly true that pensioners were favoured over the young and working population and that this was done for political reasons. May tried to change that in 3 different ways (triple lock, WFA and Dementia tax) and lost her majority. I fear the political lesson learned from that is unlikely to change the balance in future.
I remain convinced we will never actually leave.
Fair play, they've agreed with me and regulations or no have put the system in, which has cost them a bit when money isn't plentiful. I'm off to work now and when I see him I'm going to thank him again.
Your point about the regulations rings all too horribly true. But this - this is just awful.
Regardless of whether we leave or not, an extension to the timetable would be a good thing.
Within three or four years enough people will have had second thoughts to nullify the result frankly.
There always should have been a threshold for something so momentous. A small win is just a recipe for division. As Farage says, if he had lost by a couple of percent or so, he would be back arguing for another vote the following morning.
I think the best answer would be if Cameron had actually gone for the reported offer of trade with reduced politics. But that does require a TARDIS.
You really have to ask, what sort of idiot (a cost constrained one - ed?) puts flammable cladding on the exterior of a building?
Yet nobody seems interested in the other side of the equation ie how to create more wealth.
Until the UK does that things are going to get worse.
On the point about resources and response, it's difficult to say without talking politics, but LFB ate the biggest in the country and should be able to cope,
Buck stops with the RBKC......Tory controlled for ever - though hopefully now with a foresight of their own mortality.....given their new MP, who I suspect will be on their case with a vengeance.....
MATHS genius Rachel Riley has reportedly called full time on football TV presenting after suffering online abuse for remarks she made about Tottenham Hotspur.
Trolls kicked off on social media when the Countdown host called Spurs’ performance in their crucial loss to West Ham a “proper bottle job”.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3794616/countdowns-rachel-riley-quits-footie-punditry-after-hideous-backlash-over-spurs-remark/
Nevertheless, polling people for their personal opinions and then not believing their responses seems a particularly ludicrous and cynical way to proceed, so I would hope that the days of multiple "adjustments" are over.
Your mother-in-law's cut bus services were used to fund her triple lock pension.
Hoping my friend in Kensington isn't in that fire. Was surprised when I heard she'd voted in Kensington to be fair
There is a positive opportunity to grasp when we leave, that's where the narrative should be. I don't trust the politician's too much, one of their big gravy train's will be shut down, a proportion will want to look after their own.
Social EU legislation, which supposedly leads to better working conditions, has not saved one job and is riddled with opt-outs for employers to largely ignore any perceived benefits they may bring to workers. But it is making zero-hour contracts and agency-working the norm while undermining collective bargaining and full-time, secure employment. Meanwhile, 10,000 manufacturing jobs in the East Midlands still hang in the balance because EU law demanded that the crucial Thameslink contract go to Siemens in Germany rather than Bombardier in Derby.
Today, unemployment in the eurozone is at a record 12%. In the countries hit hardest by the "troika" of banks and bureaucrats, youth unemployment tops 60% and the millions of personal tragedies of lost homes, jobs, pensions and services are testament to the sick joke of "social Europe".
The raft of EU treaties are, as Tony Benn once said, nothing more than a cast-iron manifesto for capitalism that demands the chaos of the complete free movement of capital, goods, services and labour. It is clear that Greece, Spain, Cyprus and the rest need investment, not more austerity and savage cuts to essential public services, but, locked in the eurozone, the only option left is exactly that.
Mr. Felix, I agree it won't happen, but it could and would be quite interesting.
Imagine: May and Corbyn cut out of power, a coalition of the best talent across parties in government, and the media and electorate completely bamboozled by what the hell is going on.
Edited extra bit: and, Mr. Pulpstar, I hope your friend is ok.
You Gov did well but Survation is now the gold standard.The rest have probably suffered long-term reputational damage.Ipsos Mori and ICM and the rest have got some explaining to do.
A further anecdote: a good friend works at a relatively new-build public school. After recent terrorist attacks the school did and audit on their plans. One thing that was noted was that the ground- and first-floor windows only opened a few inches, to allow air in but people not to fall out. This prevented them from being used for escape in certain circumstances.
It was then pointed out that there is actually a hidden catch in the window which, when pressed, allows them to be opened fully (as there are in some part-opening residential windows). Needless to say the teachers have been told about this, but not the pupils!
Planning for all possible circumstances is difficult, and sometime systems designed to protect against one eventuality can actively be detrimental in another.
I suspect there would be a very close correlation.
When people reach their thirties without being able to buy a home they become doubtful that they will ever be able to. There will be many such people reaching that conclusion now, especially in London, and they wont be happy with the government.
The Country is in a very poor place and to be honest my views have changed dramatically since last Thursday. I cannot see any positives in any form of hard Brexit and hope as the weeks and months pass common sense prevails and we stay in the single market and customs union.
The reports from business since Thursday are so worrying and with Airbus threatening UK production it would be an act of extreme folly to do anything to disrupt our essential industries.
I do not agree with the Lib Dems that there should be a second referendum as that could make things worse but hope that with the influence of Ruth Davidson and indeed the DUP Theresa May can in time bring her position in line with the consensus that seems to be developing that the single market is more important than immigration. The appointment of pro remain Gavin Barwell to no 10 and the sacking of active leaver David Jones indicates the way of travel in my opinion
In Kensington constituency which everyone assumed was mansions :-(
Its bullshit. And people have now realised its bullshit. And they won't stand for being patronised and sneered at any longer.
When did the Conservative Party lose its link with human compassion? Its not just the cuts that have so offended people, but the cuts on whom and how they have been done. Nasty, vicious, spiteful, un-British.
People are fed up with cuts and I think thats become absolutely clear.
How else to square the YouGov finding that a close result was nailed on two or three weeks out, with all the anecdotal reports from canvassers? Or the fact that the election result surprised both party HQs and almost every canvasser, despite the "intelligence" they all had based on millions of conversations.
When the relationship between age and voting wasn't so stark, and when younger voter turnout was lower, perhaps this didn't matter and, like the polls, canvassing gave a good feel despite the sample being unrepresentative in other ways. But it doesn't any more.
And people are more likely to blame for something detrimental than praise for something positive.
Change is therefore dangerous for governments and so problems are allowed to increase and become ever more difficult to resolve. Care policy for the elderly is a classic example of this.
Couple of minor things happened but nothing of any great consequence.
Just asking for some Scottish politicians looking to drown their recent sorrows ...
Once DUP courting is complete, I hope Theresa May - or whoever is advising her right now - will realise that a Tory bunker Brexit will destroy the party.
She absolutely needs cross party support, and needs to figure out how to do that given Corbyn has so much to gain from sitting it out. However I do not think Corbyn can afford to do so indefinitely either. The contradictions in the Labour Party will return sooner or later.
A clear majority of parliamentarians do not want to destroy the economy. That implies extending the deadline and pursuing EFTA en route to something else, with a specific deal on the Irish border.
We can continue the argument over whether to go further in time toward a bespoke FTA as the government have been pursuing to date, or anything else.
Importantly, we need a clear signpost on this urgently. The economy is turning and it's pretty clear that Brexit is responsible.
Meanwhile, public opinion remains very fickle.
I still believe it is quite likely (40%) that polls will turn against Brexit. If so, we the political pressure to stay where we are will be irresistible.
Brexiters ought to be making the case now for a cross party sanctioned EFTA. Remainers need to continue arguing against Brexit in terms the public understand - ie the real hit to our wallets.
It's in the council's interest to say that the journeys are short, as that means they pay the provider less. It's also led to increased bus fares for the farepayers, further reducing travel (though that may have happened anyway).
Many rural pensioners have therefore been left with a free bus pass, but no bus services.
Mr. Doethur, I got half my tips for Canada wrong but finished by accidentally putting a smaller than intended stake on a losing bet.
I am pleased your pestilence has abated.
Have to say mine are not bad at all. Very minor interaction with public services - 1 Gp visit and one blood test in about 5 years - both admirably efficient and quick. Even managed only 1 visit ever to A&E with 3 kids which must be some kind of record - again quick and efficient but I guess we ere lucky
Children's schools the main one, and they seem OK. Dripping with laptops, iPads, double glazing replacements, electronic whiteboards, good audiovisual kit, and every primary school class has a TA so the pupil:teacher ratio is really 15:1 as far as I can see. Some buildings are a bit tired.
OK potholes are a disgrace but otherwise we clearly live in a rich country. I know I am lucky generally with a decent job etc and perhaps lucky specifically where I live (?)
Yet with all these potential biases and a truly massive margin of error, you prefer to conclude definitely that there was a late swing?
Are you a reincarnation of Nunu or someone new?
If we could get what we want, as if we could wander round in a supermarket, I'd be all for it. We are in for tough negotiating, so the solution is to present a garbled version of a wish-list?
My version of the wish-list, is tariff-free trade, changes to FOM (basically control of our own border) and control of our own laws. I suspect that will never be on offer . At least the LDs are honest anti-democrats.
When we have a second referendum, I will lead the demand for a second and third GEs when I don't like the result, even more so when the Government has a mid-cycle dip and polls turn against them. The people will have changed their mind - we must have a new GE when this happens.
My view is that the result of the referendum was always in doubt, because the self-appointed leaders, the great and the good (in their own eyes) aren't used to not getting their own way. The squealing has been marvellous to behold, but it's time the plebs were put back in their box.
It would very likely mean we re-join the EU again in the next 10 years, possibly with even fewer opt-outs (the EU likes those who stand against it be seen to be worse off for having done so).
EFTA-EEA is something I think both sides could accept.
Sorry don't know how to do this blockquote thing yet.
Seems like it's the DUP to the rescue then, which will be ironic considering how they have been vilified.
Even an ardent Kipper like me is beginning to think like Big G, a softer landing would be much better for us all. Having said that I cannot understand anyone who says we will leave the single market but stay in the customs union, surely that is the worst of both worlds?
The lower than predicted growth is one reason why government borrowing has been hundreds of billions higher than Osborne predicted.
Creating millions of low skilled wealth consumption jobs isn't a benefit either.
The EU’s executive arm forged ahead with a proposal feared by many in the City of London on so-called euro clearing, which will cost banks an estimated £63 billion and could deprive the U.K. of 83,000 jobs.
The new proposals empower the Commission to strip London of its nearly €1 trillion-a-day euro-clearing business if it deems it necessary for financial soundness in the EU.
The bulk of euro-denominated derivatives transactions are cleared at clearing houses in Britain. EU regulators — including the European Central Bank — are concerned they will no longer have oversight of key transactions in their currency after Brexit takes effect.
http://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-makes-euro-clearing-a-brexit-battleground/
Ah well, it is only 83,000 jobs, I'm sure they don't need the money and will feel the warmth of taking back control.
The TMO was set up on 1 April 1996[1] under the UK Government's 'Right to Manage' regulations.[2] Kensington and Chelsea TMO is the largest TMO in the UK[3] and is unique in being both the only TMO that runs the entire housing stock for the local council but also in being the only TMO that is also an ALMO (Arms Length Management Organisation).[4]
If she is going, why be the person who changes tack on Brexit? Whereas if she is staying, surely she would understand that her previous approach is futile.
I was sent to highly-targetted waverers and probable/firm Con households.
In hindsight, I was probably sent to broadly the right households, and the Tory vote went up, but CCHQ didn't notice that there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour in the homes and flats I didn't visit.
The only problem is that it would put professional politicians out of a job, so how can they ever be persuaded to agree to it? Perhaps their role could evolve into something analogous to that of advocates in the legal system, but I think that would be a much more skilled job than that of the present-day politician, and we wouldn't need anything like 600+ of them. Maybe they could be given jobs for life in a purely advisory House of Lords - though I fear a lot of them are in it for the power, not just the money.
They didn't vote for it = they don't want it.
Not making a political point, genuinely unclear on this. The story was covered [I use the term loosely] on the news last night but in such a superficial way the actual legality or mechanism involved was never specified.
Also, the EU has always wanted to harm the city or tax it for its own purposes.
And this is why Project Fear is no longer believed.