All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
The Tory party is as successful as it is because we have always found a way to adjust to the new political reality. I'm sure that I'm not the only one making these arguments and that they are also being made in the places that matter.
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Where do you put my city of bradford in your ratings ;-)
Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.
Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.
So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.
Presently, Unionists and Nationalists are level-pegging in Belfast, in voting terms, but the DUP won three out of four, due to a split vote in South Belfast.
The Boundary Commission proposed to cut Belfast down to three, removing Unionist outskirts, and ensuring the inner city would split 2:1 SF Alliance. The Unionist outskirts would just add to Unionist majorities in surrounding seats.
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Well i'm thick and uneducated so what do i know, i only go there there times a year.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
The Tory party is as successful as it is because we have always found a way to adjust to the new political reality. I'm sure that I'm not the only one making these arguments and that they are also being made in the places that matter.
The one taboo you could break that would transform your position is something you won't even consider...
The political reality you need to adjust to is that Brexit is failing.
Interesting piece by Joff. The phrase "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" comes from Samuel Johnson, and similarly was attacking fake patriotism of the kinds that Joff cites. There's a lot in that, though like "being British" it's elusive, as what seems fake to one person can seem moving to another - the flag-waving at the last night of the Proms, for instance, is inspiring, fun, silly or alienating, depending on whom you ask.
The Labour tradition is to see patriotism as intricately wound up with the traditions of ordinary people rather than pomp and ceremony - Orwell was strong on that. Conversely it's plastic to try to enlist patriotism as an excuse for bad policy - there is nothing patriotic in sending our troops to kill people in Libya because we prefer autocrat A to autocrat B.
But it's probably true to say that younger people tend to take it all fairly lightly anyway. Most people of all political views are fond of our country, comfortable in it and want it to do well, evenif we may disagree on how to do that. But people who bellow that British is Always Best are rarer than they used to be and seen as a bit, well, un-British.
Interestingly in the recent survey for Trevor Phillips (where attitudes to gays and terrorism was the focus) Muslims in the UK were more likely to describe themselves as British than non Muslims.
And there is a sort of patriotism that is embarrassed by what our country has done, like a parent appearing in court for a loved, but bad child. UB40 put it well:
I understand how labour are cock a hoop but I am not convinced they will see a GE anytime soon.
The paradox is that non of the opposition parties will want to face a GE, the conservatives as they need lots of time to change the narrative, the SNP as their remaining seats are under attack in Scotland from both labour and the conservatives, and the lib dems who would not want to gamble their MP's and have said they are against labours corporation tax rises.
If the conservatives and the DUP combine to 328 seats, how can labour get near them unless everyone else positively votes against the government. Self interest will prevent it happening
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
A PM Corbyn would of course be the swiftest possible boost to the Tories but I would rather it did not have to come to that
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Where do you put my city of bradford in your ratings ;-)
Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.
Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.
So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.
Presently, Unionists and Nationalists are level-pegging in Belfast, in voting terms, but the DUP won three out of four, due to a split vote in South Belfast.
The Boundary Commission proposed to cut Belfast down to three, removing Unionist outskirts, and ensuring the inner city would split 2:1 SF Alliance. The Unionist outskirts would just add to Unionist majorities in surrounding seats.
Unsurprisingly, the DUP will block this.
Part of the DUP confidence and supply agreement to stop the boundary changes and/or reducing the number of MPs?
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Where do you put my city of bradford in your ratings ;-)
Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.
Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.
So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.
Presently, Unionists and Nationalists are level-pegging in Belfast, in voting terms, but the DUP won three out of four, due to a split vote in South Belfast.
The Boundary Commission proposed to cut Belfast down to three, removing Unionist outskirts, and ensuring the inner city would split 2:1 SF Alliance. The Unionist outskirts would just add to Unionist majorities in surrounding seats.
Unsurprisingly, the DUP will block this.
Part of the DUP confidence and supply agreement to stop the boundary changes and/or reducing the number of MPs?
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Where do you put my city of bradford in your ratings ;-)
Funnily enough i went to uní in bradford!
Do you meet the qualifying standard to post on PB then?
Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.
Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
What motivated the youth to turn out may have been similar to the reasons why the middle aged swung so heavily labour, and oldies swithched back to labour to an extent. They are not independent of eachother.
The polling shows the manifesto (the parts that got the headlines) was a disaster from start to finish. also tuition fees is having an effect on what people study, with some very bright stuents deciding to do free courses (such as nursing, physio, nutrition etc) instead of say stem degrees. That is a shame.
I did a STEM degree back in the day. I think STEM subjects are important. The market clearly disagrees, otherwise it would pay a massive premium for STEM graduates.
How do we revive the British chemicals industry and get pharmaceutical R&D back here? Because at the moment, aside from a few maths whizzes getting jobs as City traders, what else is there? Teaching?
If you tax buy to let to death you will exacerbate another problem. Increasing rents and more pressure on the state to provide housing for people who have no hope of buying housing on the open market.
Landlords are already quitting the buy to let market because it is too regulated and risky. That is putting a lot more pressure on local authorities to house people, but the fact is that social housing waiting lists are long and appropriate and affordable housing in the private rented sector simply doesn't exist. People end up being housed in substandard accommodation, B and B's, HMO's, etc. Thats what I see, anyway.
The type of housing preferred by buy to let landlords is also generally in my experience the worst type of housing that isn't going to appeal to prospective tory first time buyers. There is quite a limited crossover between the two. Things are probably different in London, granted. But London is only one part of the UK.
Also, many people in our economy will decide to rent as we have to move around with work. Buying a flat in our antiquated conveyancing system costs vast amounts in legal fees etc and it is not a very liquid asset.
In many parts of the country outside the south east there is actually quite a lot of affordable housing but the problem is people cannot access mortgage finance due to personal circumstances.
I am no fan of buy to let landlords but I suspect they are quite an influential constituency within the conservative party. I think targetted interventions can work but attacking buy to let is the wrong approach.
Labour needs a swing of just 3.5% to get 325 seats , compared to over 10% after 2015.
44 of these will be from the Tories. 1 from PC and a whopping 17 from the SNP.
Ruth Davidson just made it much easier for Labour to get an overall majority.
No she didn't, whether the Tories or SNP win Scottish seats makes no difference to the number Labour need for an overall majority
Thats not what I'm saying.
In many central belt seats the SNP vote collapsed and the tories saurged leaving the SNP sitting on dozens of tiny majorities. But because labour are clear second in these seats, they can win them next time on small swings. Making a labour overall majority much easier.
Labour needs a swing of just 3.5% to get 325 seats , compared to over 10% after 2015.
44 of these will be from the Tories. 1 from PC and a whopping 17 from the SNP.
Ruth Davidson just made it much easier for Labour to get an overall majority.
No she didn't, whether the Tories or SNP win Scottish seats makes no difference to the number Labour need for an overall majority
Thats not what I'm saying.
In many central belt seats the SNP vote collapsed and the tories saurged leaving the SNP sitting on dozens of tiny majorities. But because labour are clear second in these seats, they can win them next time on small swings. Making a labour overall majority much easier.
Even I would rather have a Corbyn seat than an SNP seat so that trend may continue
Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.
Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
What motivated the youth to turn out may have been similar to the reasons why the middle aged swung so heavily labour, and oldies swithched back to labour to an extent. They are not independent of eachother.
The polling shows the manifesto (the parts that got the headlines) was a disaster from start to finish. also tuition fees is having an effect on what people study, with some very bright stuents deciding to do free courses (such as nursing, physio, nutrition etc) instead of say stem degrees. That is a shame.
I did a STEM degree back in the day. I think STEM subjects are important. The market clearly disagrees, otherwise it would pay a massive premium for STEM graduates.
How do we revive the British chemicals industry and get pharmaceutical R&D back here? Because at the moment, aside from a few maths whizzes getting jobs as City traders, what else is there? Teaching?
Ineos expanding its petrochemicals plants in Scotland.
Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7% Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3% Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5% Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84% East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2% Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8% Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7% Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6% Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1% Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%
How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
Con take Bootle? not for some time!
I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify what is wrong with the tories
Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
Not very high proportions though and you are never far from the druggies and gangsters, some parts of South Liverpool are the pits. Keep up the pretense Liverpool is a bad, bad place worst in England, it has the biggest proportion of real hell-holes.
Where do you put my city of bradford in your ratings ;-)
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
The Tory party is as successful as it is because we have always found a way to adjust to the new political reality. I'm sure that I'm not the only one making these arguments and that they are also being made in the places that matter.
The one taboo you could break that would transform your position is something you won't even consider...
The political reality you need to adjust to is that Brexit is failing.
Cancelling Brexit would destroy the party for a generation. It is a stupid idea and only pushed by eurofanatics like you.
I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.
People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.
The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
Indeed.
And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.
But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.
And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.
Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:
How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
It would be an attack on additional property, not on the primary home. That is the distinction which makes it acceptable to me. I'd like to see a situation where the houses in private rent goes down from ~4.5m today to around 2.5m in five years, providing an additional 400k houses and flats to the market per year, offsetting the need to build new property a bit.
But... those rental properties have people in them already. So it would add exactly as much demand as the added supply. If you kicked 400,000 people out of rented accommodation and required them to buy a house, the demand for house buying would increase by exactly as much.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
A PM Corbyn would of course be the swiftest possible boost to the Tories but I would rather it did not have to come to that
Why not just hand the keys to Corbyn now? Lets see what happens when he tries to implement his programme?
I recon a 2017 osborne manifesto would have stuck boosters under the lifetime isa to peel off just enough of the u35/u40 vote to see the conservatives home.
100% on £25k savings. £50k inside london.
Pay for it via stamp duty on over £500k + screwing the BTL'ers further.
Keep on blowing up the bubble.
Insane economics, but great retail politics that turns non-tories into tories.
And, at some point, the house of cards collapses. The bigger the bubble, the worse the crash.
We need to start nation-building again, not game-playing.
Why bother. Can't get an acceptable deal. Have declared a deal must be done. Just delay through to recess and hope people forget that she "won".
Is there an ounce of political sanity left in her? Fine to lose a majority and seek to challenge the Commons to back you or sack you. Not fine to discard parliament and hope something might come up to save you later.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
The Tory party is as successful as it is because we have always found a way to adjust to the new political reality. I'm sure that I'm not the only one making these arguments and that they are also being made in the places that matter.
The one taboo you could break that would transform your position is something you won't even consider...
The political reality you need to adjust to is that Brexit is failing.
If the Tory Party abandons Brexit, it will not hold office for a generation.
Landlords are already quitting the buy to let market because it is too regulated and risky.
Compared to the continent, landlord regulation here is practically non-existent. They are quitting because asset prices keep going up and rents are now coming down. No yield.
Why bother. Can't get an acceptable deal. Have declared a deal must be done. Just delay through to recess and hope people forget that she "won".
Is there an ounce of political sanity left in her? Fine to lose a majority and seek to challenge the Commons to back you or sack you. Not fine to discard parliament and hope something might come up to save you later.
Which is exactly what she seems to be doing. Week delay?
Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.
Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
What motivated the youth to turn out may have been similar to the reasons why the middle aged swung so heavily labour, and oldies swithched back to labour to an extent. They are not independent of eachother.
The polling shows the manifesto (the parts that got the headlines) was a disaster from start to finish. also tuition fees is having an effect on what people study, with some very bright stuents deciding to do free courses (such as nursing, physio, nutrition etc) instead of say stem degrees. That is a shame.
I did a STEM degree back in the day. I think STEM subjects are important. The market clearly disagrees, otherwise it would pay a massive premium for STEM graduates.
How do we revive the British chemicals industry and get pharmaceutical R&D back here? Because at the moment, aside from a few maths whizzes getting jobs as City traders, what else is there? Teaching?
Ineos expanding its petrochemicals plants in Scotland.
Well only one example bradford closed its school of chem eng and the space is occupied by computer gaming. On the other hand they have a very progresive school of phamaceutical innovation.
I'm becoming increasingly gloomy about the likelihood of a pragmatic Brexit. I can't see the Tory hard Right allowing it. Stung by Theresa's failure and furious with the Remoaners, whom they blame, they'll want it to all go up in a fireball. Hard-as-nails Brexit will be their last hurrah. Thereafter DD will clear his desk, and we'll have to find our own way in the world. Over to Liam.
Worse because we lost, but at least we lost to a Labour party carrying forwards Tory spending plans and copying Tory policies. As I said, this just feels worse. In 1997 the path back to power was difficult but fairly clear, grab the centre ground and hold onto the centre right, it took us a few attempts but we managed it with Dave. Today we're in power but I have no idea how we can win a majority in 2022 or 2027, May and her idiot advisors have moved the centre ground of politics to the left. Our party legitimised Labour's dire manifesto by pushing Ed Miliband's old policies. It didn't go unnoticed.
Today the path back to a majority is completely fucked, I have no idea how we will manage it and which leader will be able to deliver it. What message can capture this new leftist centre ground of politics while holding onto our centre right base? I haven't got a clue and, not to sound arrogant, I saw the how poorly May's brand of politics was going to play earlier than most people here and earlier than people in the party who kept telling me to be quiet when I pointed out the folly of attacking property rights and abandoning our free market credentials.
It was a long way back from 165 seats in 1997, if it hadn't been for the crash Cam wouldn't have won either. If the Conservatives hold it together and the Economy stays fairly calm they will have a decent chance next time, with a new leader. Sorting the boundaries and a proper Liberal leader by then would help the cause, having a statist leader masquerading under the Liberal banner certainly was a big help to Corbyn.
The crash definitely didnt help Camerons polling figures towards the back end of 2008. The Labour figures improved significantly at that time.befors gradually sinking in 2009. I think the crash and expenses scandal cost the Tories a majority in 2010.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
A PM Corbyn would of course be the swiftest possible boost to the Tories but I would rather it did not have to come to that
Why not just hand the keys to Corbyn now? Lets see what happens when he tries to implement his programme?
Higher taxes, nationalisations, increased union power, increased borrowing, the 1970s all over again
I was serious with my comment earlier, and it didn't need the hatchet job you clearly wanted to get off your chest. You need to realise that your neo-liberalist utopia was also rejected by large swathes of the nation in 2016. To be truthful, the new social settlement that we'll need hasn't yet appeared. It liekly isn't my ideal, it likely isn't your ideal either.
One of the most frustrating elements of modernity it that people knock the nation state right up until the moment they need it. I'd have thought that as a fellow Brexiteer you'd understand that...
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
How close is the PB Tory brains trust to a manifesto, or at least a pledge-card of targeted policies to win back key demographics?
1. (UNDER)GRADS: 20% tax-deductible SLC repayments. 2. NHS EMPLOYEES: DoH spending to be 18B higher by end of parliament - an extra £350M/wk. 3. GEN RENT: Higher capital or transactional taxes on BTL, paying for bigger H2B ISAs? 4. PLOD: 5. LONDONERS: 6. DRIVERS: 80mph motorways 7. Everyone has to carry a plastic bag? No, no, that's shit.
If you tax buy to let to death you will exacerbate another problem. Increasing rents and more pressure on the state to provide housing for people who have no hope of buying housing on the open market.
Landlords are already quitting the buy to let market because it is too regulated and risky. That is putting a lot more pressure on local authorities to house people, but the fact is that social housing waiting lists are long and appropriate and affordable housing in the private rented sector simply doesn't exist. People end up being housed in substandard accommodation, B and B's, HMO's, etc. Thats what I see, anyway.
The type of housing preferred by buy to let landlords is also generally in my experience the worst type of housing that isn't going to appeal to prospective tory first time buyers. There is quite a limited crossover between the two. Things are probably different in London, granted. But London is only one part of the UK.
Also, many people in our economy will decide to rent as we have to move around with work. Buying a flat in our antiquated conveyancing system costs vast amounts in legal fees etc and it is not a very liquid asset.
In many parts of the country outside the south east there is actually quite a lot of affordable housing but the problem is people cannot access mortgage finance due to personal circumstances.
I am no fan of buy to let landlords but I suspect they are quite an influential constituency within the conservative party. I think targetted interventions can work but attacking buy to let is the wrong approach.
Letting is a horrible business to be in. Councils and EHO hate you as a landlord and that's before they all got fired up by the Corbyn bullshit this year. Sold my let last year, couldn't stand the crap anymore for increasing rubbish returns.
It's bad now under the Tories. It'll cease to exist under a Corbyn government
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
A PM Corbyn would of course be the swiftest possible boost to the Tories but I would rather it did not have to come to that
Why not just hand the keys to Corbyn now? Lets see what happens when he tries to implement his programme?
Higher taxes, nationalisations, increased union power, increased borrowing, the 1970s all over again
But he would like the numbers. the Tories could pull the plug on him at any time and force a GE.
The biggest problem with buy to let is Landlords who think it's somehow free money. Being a landlord comes with a lot of responsibilities which include making sure the property stays up-to-date and modern. Some landlords think you can paint your house magnolia, rent it out, sit back and watch the money roll in.
I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.
People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.
The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
Indeed.
And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.
But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.
And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.
Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:
How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
It would be an attack on additional property, not on the primary home. That is the distinction which makes it acceptable to me. I'd like to see a situation where the houses in private rent goes down from ~4.5m today to around 2.5m in five years, providing an additional 400k houses and flats to the market per year, offsetting the need to build new property a bit.
But... those rental properties have people in them already. So it would add exactly as much demand as the added supply. If you kicked 400,000 people out of rented accommodation and required them to buy a house, the demand for house buying would increase by exactly as much.
Government backed first time buyer mortgages and extension of the LISA.
All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
Well quite. Let's hope some of the PB Tories on here come out of their complacancy sooner rather then later. I do not want PM Corbyn.
How close is the PB Tory brains trust to a manifesto, or at least a pledge-card of targeted policies to win back key demographics?
1. (UNDER)GRADS: 20% tax-deductible SLC repayments. 2. NHS EMPLOYEES: DoH spending to be 18B higher by end of parliament - an extra £350M/wk. 3. GEN RENT: Higher capital or transactional taxes on BTL, paying for bigger H2B ISAs? 4. PLOD: 5. LONDONERS: 6. DRIVERS: 80mph motorways 7. Everyone has to carry a plastic bag? No, no, that's shit.
Re: point 5, you clearly missed last night's genius from Another Richard: the key to Tory success is to make London more like Mansfield.
The biggest problem with buy to let is Landlords who think it's somehow free money. Being a landlord comes with a lot of responsibilities which include making sure the property stays up-to-date and modern. Some landlords think you can paint your house magnolia, rent it out, sit back and watch the money roll in.
It sounds like little has changed since my renting days. We used to withhold the last month's rent so we were in control of the deposit.
The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
Indeed.
And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.
But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.
And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.
Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:
How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
It would be an attack on additional property, not on the primary home. That is the distinction which makes it acceptable to me. I'd like to see a situation where the houses in private rent goes down from ~4.5m today to around 2.5m in five years, providing an additional 400k houses and flats to the market per year, offsetting the need to build new property a bit.
But... those rental properties have people in them already. So it would add exactly as much demand as the added supply. If you kicked 400,000 people out of rented accommodation and required them to buy a house, the demand for house buying would increase by exactly as much.
Government backed first time buyer mortgages and extension of the LISA.
It still doesn't change the equation that demand for housing exceeds supply. Government giving extra money to sellers under certain conditions (which is what that ends up being) doesn't bring down prices. It props them up without helping solve it.
I was serious with my comment earlier, and it didn't need the hatchet job you clearly wanted to get off your chest. You need to realise that your neo-liberalist utopia was also rejected by large swathes of the nation in 2016. To be truthful, the new social settlement that we'll need hasn't yet appeared. It liekly isn't my ideal, it likely isn't your ideal either.
One of the most frustrating elements of modernity it that people knock the nation state right up until the moment they need it. I'd have thought that as a fellow Brexiteer you'd understand that...
The state doesn't need a bunch of judgemental curtain twitchers controlling its levers Mortimer. The problem with May is she is an interfering so and so.
Comments
Hung result?
The Boundary Commission proposed to cut Belfast down to three, removing Unionist outskirts, and ensuring the inner city would split 2:1 SF Alliance. The Unionist outskirts would just add to Unionist majorities in surrounding seats.
Unsurprisingly, the DUP will block this.
Playing for time - like the football later.
The political reality you need to adjust to is that Brexit is failing.
And there is a sort of patriotism that is embarrassed by what our country has done, like a parent appearing in court for a loved, but bad child. UB40 put it well:
https://g.co/kgs/PVYwyh
The paradox is that non of the opposition parties will want to face a GE, the conservatives as they need lots of time to change the narrative, the SNP as their remaining seats are under attack in Scotland from both labour and the conservatives, and the lib dems who would not want to gamble their MP's and have said they are against labours corporation tax rises.
If the conservatives and the DUP combine to 328 seats, how can labour get near them unless everyone else positively votes against the government. Self interest will prevent it happening
;-)
How do we revive the British chemicals industry and get pharmaceutical R&D back here? Because at the moment, aside from a few maths whizzes getting jobs as City traders, what else is there? Teaching?
Landlords are already quitting the buy to let market because it is too regulated and risky. That is putting a lot more pressure on local authorities to house people, but the fact is that social housing waiting lists are long and appropriate and affordable housing in the private rented sector simply doesn't exist. People end up being housed in substandard accommodation, B and B's, HMO's, etc. Thats what I see, anyway.
The type of housing preferred by buy to let landlords is also generally in my experience the worst type of housing that isn't going to appeal to prospective tory first time buyers. There is quite a limited crossover between the two. Things are probably different in London, granted. But London is only one part of the UK.
Also, many people in our economy will decide to rent as we have to move around with work. Buying a flat in our antiquated conveyancing system costs vast amounts in legal fees etc and it is not a very liquid asset.
In many parts of the country outside the south east there is actually quite a lot of affordable housing but the problem is people cannot access mortgage finance due to personal circumstances.
I am no fan of buy to let landlords but I suspect they are quite an influential constituency within the conservative party. I think targetted interventions can work but attacking buy to let is the wrong approach.
In many central belt seats the SNP vote collapsed and the tories saurged leaving the SNP sitting on dozens of tiny majorities. But because labour are clear second in these seats, they can win them next time on small swings. Making a labour overall majority much easier.
Demi temps
So it would add exactly as much demand as the added supply.
If you kicked 400,000 people out of rented accommodation and required them to buy a house, the demand for house buying would increase by exactly as much.
We need to start nation-building again, not game-playing.
Is there an ounce of political sanity left in her? Fine to lose a majority and seek to challenge the Commons to back you or sack you. Not fine to discard parliament and hope something might come up to save you later.
1) Aberavon (Stephen Kinnock) 50.4%
2) Merthyr (Gerald Jones) 48.7%
3) Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens) 42.6%
4) Rhondda (Chris Bryant) 41.8%
5) Cynon Valley (Ann Clwyd) 41.6%
6) Swansea East (Carolyn Harris) 37.4%
7) Ogmore (Chris Elmore) 37.3%
8) Blaenau Gwent (Nick Smith) 36.8%
9) Neath (Christina Rees) 33.0%
10) Islwyn (Chris Evans) 31.6%
11) Llanelli (Nia Griffiths) 29.8%
12) Caerphilly (Wayne David) 29.3%
13) Cardiff South (Stephen Doughty) 29.3%
14) Pontypridd (Owen Smith) 28.7%
15) Swansea West (Geraint Davies) 28.5%
16) Cardiff West (Kevin Brennan) 26.9%
17) Torfaen (Nick Thomas-Symonds) 26.6%
18) Newport East (Jessica Morden) 21.7%
19) Ynis Mon (Albert Owen) 14.1%
20) Newport West (Paul Flynn) 13.0%
21) Alyn and Deeside (Mark Tami) 11.7%
22) Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) 11.6%
23) Bridgend (Madeleine Moon) 10.9%
24) Delyn (David Hanson) 10.8%
25) Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin) 8.0% GAIN
26) Gower (Tonia Antoniazzi) 7.2% GAIN
27) Vale of Clwyd (Chris Ruane) 6.1% GAIN
28) Wrexham (Ian Lucas) 5.2%
Welsh Labour did quite well in the Southern Valleys and held up in North Wales Labour leaning marginals.
I was serious with my comment earlier, and it didn't need the hatchet job you clearly wanted to get off your chest. You need to realise that your neo-liberalist utopia was also rejected by large swathes of the nation in 2016. To be truthful, the new social settlement that we'll need hasn't yet appeared. It liekly isn't my ideal, it likely isn't your ideal either.
One of the most frustrating elements of modernity it that people knock the nation state right up until the moment they need it. I'd have thought that as a fellow Brexiteer you'd understand that...
1. (UNDER)GRADS: 20% tax-deductible SLC repayments.
2. NHS EMPLOYEES: DoH spending to be 18B higher by end of parliament - an extra £350M/wk.
3. GEN RENT: Higher capital or transactional taxes on BTL, paying for bigger H2B ISAs?
4. PLOD:
5. LONDONERS:
6. DRIVERS: 80mph motorways
7. Everyone has to carry a plastic bag? No, no, that's shit.
It's bad now under the Tories. It'll cease to exist under a Corbyn government
You can see the Tory PPB now:
Mansfield. Our vision for Britain.
Government giving extra money to sellers under certain conditions (which is what that ends up being) doesn't bring down prices. It props them up without helping solve it.
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