Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for Labour to push back against Tory plastic patriot

13

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    Pong said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    Get a grip. 1997 was an order of magnitude worse.
    Not for the right.

    TM went to the country as Mrs Daily Mail. And lost. To Jeremy f*cking Corbyn.

    The rightwing fantasy hit electoral reality.

    This is a disaster. The implications are worse than 1997.
    Err No. May got 42% and 318 seats, Corbyn got 40% and 262 seats. In 1997 Blair got 43% and 418 seats, Major got 31% and 165 seats
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Get a grip. 1997 was an order of magnitude worse.

    Worse because we lost, but at least we lost to a Labour party carrying forwards Tory spending plans and copying Tory policies. As I said, this just feels worse. In 1997 the path back to power was difficult but fairly clear, grab the centre ground and hold onto the centre right, it took​ us a few attempts but we managed it with Dave. Today we're in power but I have no idea how we can win a majority in 2022 or 2027, May and her idiot advisors have moved the centre ground of politics to the left. Our party legitimised Labour's dire manifesto by pushing Ed Miliband's old policies. It didn't go unnoticed.

    Today the path back to a majority is completely fucked, I have no idea how we will manage it and which leader will be able to deliver it. What message can capture this new leftist centre ground of politics while holding onto our centre right base? I haven't got a clue and, not to sound arrogant, I saw the how poorly May's brand of politics was going to play earlier than most people here and earlier than people in the party who kept telling me to be quiet when I pointed out the folly of attacking property rights and abandoning our free market credentials.
    Take a 24-72 hour break from PB. You need it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    619 said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Theyve banned the Sun and remember thatcher leaving them to rot in the 80's
    No she told them a few truths and they didn't heed the advice. The biggest cesspit in England then and now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.

    All political parties are struggling with how the world is now. It reminds me of the record companies when music downloads first started to appear and taking market share. They fought against them, then struggled to build different models, then finally embraced it all. The world our senior politicians grew up in is not the world as it is now - that applies to Labour and Tory alike. But Labour got lucky when it got Corbyn: Momentum and others grew out of the internet, know how to use it and know how to frame messages. The Tories need something similar. The message and how it is framed is vital. Young people (and I mean under 40s here, not just 18-24) are not all dreaming nihilists looking for hand-outs. My experience of them is that they are entrepreneurial, dynamic, very outward looking and totally inter-connected. Silicon Roundabout techies should be Tories by rights, but I wonder how many of them are.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    I was in Liverpool a few weeks back with some old friends. Great town for a night out. Lots of atmosphere, live music in the pubs and the waterfront. Well worth a visit.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Scott_P said:
    The're just trolling Farage now to see how apoplectic he can be.
    Macron's desperation is touching. The Frogs are going to have to start pulling their weight in the EU project without the UK's largesse.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    Don't turn on a fellow Tory and Brexiter, please.

    We do need to be careful how we execute Brexit, though. I don't want a deal so poor we end up rejoining with our tails between our legs in 10 years time, only this time being obliged to join the euro.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    Scott_P said:
    The're just trolling Farage now to see how apoplectic he can be.
    Macron's desperation is touching. The Frogs are going to have to start pulling their weight in the EU project without the UK's largesse.
    Macron's giving a masterclass in how to win elections.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    All political parties are struggling with how the world is now. It reminds me of the record companies when music downloads first started to appear and taking market share. They fought against them, then struggled to build different models, then finally embraced it all. The world our senior politicians grew up in is not the world as it is now - that applies to Labour and Tory alike. But Momentum and others grew out of the internet, know how to use it and know how to frame messages. The Tories need something similar. The message and how it is framed is vital. Young people (and I mean under 40s here, not just 18-24) are not all dreaming nihilists looking for hand-outs. My experience of them is that they are entrepreneurial, dynamic, very outward looking and totally inter-connected. Silicon Roundabout techies should be Tories by rights, but I wonder how many of them are.

    I agree with that, and see it first hand. Loads of my friends work in Shoreditch tech and voted for Labour. May's pig ignorant stance on the internet was a complete killer, it would have cost them their jobs. Having bastard Tory landlords leeching their wages also doesn't help, loads of them live in substandard houses/flats while paying next to the earth for them to private landlords. That is something we need to address over the next five years or we will get destroyed next time around. We must gut the private rental market and make more homes available to buy, by any means necessary, even if it means introducing high taxes on additional property against the will of the landlords.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    Don't turn on a fellow Tory and Brexiter, please.

    We do need to be careful how we execute Brexit, though. I don't want a deal so poor we end up rejoining with our tails between our legs in 10 years time, only this time being obliged to join the euro.
    We will never join the Euro, 52% may have voted Leave, about 80% would vote against the Euro. Most likely it will be a fudged Brexit
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Every misplaced pass in the Tory ranks will be labelled with the strong and stable link and every "event" as a result of a coalition of chaos.Strong and stable coalition of chaos will be repeated over and over again as Britain goes into recession.We are already a global laughing stock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    Pong said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    Get a grip. 1997 was an order of magnitude worse.
    Not for the right.

    TM went to the country as Mrs Daily Mail. And lost. To Jeremy f*cking Corbyn.

    The rightwing fantasy hit electoral reality.

    This is a disaster. The implications are worse than 1997.
    A disaster for the right ?

    This election was the worst, an absolute catastrophe for the centre.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Scott_P said:
    The're just trolling Farage now to see how apoplectic he can be.
    Macron's desperation is touching. The Frogs are going to have to start pulling their weight in the EU project without the UK's largesse.
    Macron's giving a masterclass in how to win elections.
    Winning elections in France like Hollande and Sarkozy. It's no sign of merit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Get a grip. 1997 was an order of magnitude worse.

    Worse because we lost, but at least we lost to a Labour party carrying forwards Tory spending plans and copying Tory policies. As I said, this just feels worse. In 1997 the path back to power was difficult but fairly clear, grab the centre ground and hold onto the centre right, it took​ us a few attempts but we managed it with Dave. Today we're in power but I have no idea how we can win a majority in 2022 or 2027, May and her idiot advisors have moved the centre ground of politics to the left. Our party legitimised Labour's dire manifesto by pushing Ed Miliband's old policies. It didn't go unnoticed.

    Today the path back to a majority is completely fucked, I have no idea how we will manage it and which leader will be able to deliver it. What message can capture this new leftist centre ground of politics while holding onto our centre right base? I haven't got a clue and, not to sound arrogant, I saw the how poorly May's brand of politics was going to play earlier than most people here and earlier than people in the party who kept telling me to be quiet when I pointed out the folly of attacking property rights and abandoning our free market credentials.
    Max

    Mention the free market to millions upon millions of people and what will they think of ?

    Philip Green and Fred Goodwin or any other executive parasite who walked away with fortunes leaving the employees or pensioners or taxpayers to deal with the mess.

    Having stagnant pay while the bosses get richer and the bosses eg Stuart Rose saying rising wages are a bad thing.

    Tax cuts for the super rich and big business while they worry about public services and their retirement is delayed.

    Hearing stories of big businesses paying no tax because they're registered in some tax haven.

    Seeing a local factory shut down and production transferred somewhere cheaper or with less regulations.

    But what those millions upon millions of people don't think of is the Conservative party taking action to stop any of the above.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    Don't turn on a fellow Tory and Brexiter, please.

    We do need to be careful how we execute Brexit, though. I don't want a deal so poor we end up rejoining with our tails between our legs in 10 years time, only this time being obliged to join the euro.
    If they made joining the Euro a pre-requisite to joining the EU I don't think we'd ever go back in, we could only go back in if we had our 2015 position handed back with all of the same opt-outs. Rejoin would never win the vote otherwise.

    Anyway, single market Brexit will be fine economically and crucially it splits us off from the EU, we will take a small step away from Brussels for the first time since we got an opt-out of the EMU.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Get a grip. 1997 was an order of magnitude worse.

    Worse because we lost, but at least we lost to a Labour party carrying forwards Tory spending plans and copying Tory policies. As I said, this just feels worse. In 1997 the path back to power was difficult but fairly clear, grab the centre ground and hold onto the centre right, it took​ us a few attempts but we managed it with Dave. Today we're in power but I have no idea how we can win a majority in 2022 or 2027, May and her idiot advisors have moved the centre ground of politics to the left. Our party legitimised Labour's dire manifesto by pushing Ed Miliband's old policies. It didn't go unnoticed.

    Today the path back to a majority is completely fucked, I have no idea how we will manage it and which leader will be able to deliver it. What message can capture this new leftist centre ground of politics while holding onto our centre right base? I haven't got a clue and, not to sound arrogant, I saw the how poorly May's brand of politics was going to play earlier than most people here and earlier than people in the party who kept telling me to be quiet when I pointed out the folly of attacking property rights and abandoning our free market credentials.
    It was a long way back from 165 seats in 1997, if it hadn't been for the crash Cam wouldn't have won either. If the Conservatives hold it together and the Economy stays fairly calm they will have a decent chance next time, with a new leader. Sorting the boundaries and a proper Liberal leader by then would help the cause, having a statist leader masquerading under the Liberal banner certainly was a big help to Corbyn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    @MaxPB - I'm not trying to be facetious but have you considered the possibility that it's the linkage between the right and Brexit that is at the root of the severe positioning problem you now face?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:



    .

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    .
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.

    All political parties are struggling with how the world is now. It reminds me of the record companies when music downloads first started to appear and taking market share. They fought against them, then struggled to build different models, then finally embraced it all. The world our senior politicians grew up in is not the world as it is now - that applies to Labour and Tory alike. But Labour got lucky when it got Corbyn: Momentum and others grew out of the internet, know how to use it and know how to frame messages. The Tories need something similar. The message and how it is framed is vital. Young people (and I mean under 40s here, not just 18-24) are not all dreaming nihilists looking for hand-outs. My experience of them is that they are entrepreneurial, dynamic, very outward looking and totally inter-connected. Silicon Roundabout techies should be Tories by rights, but I wonder how many of them are.
    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    I am not a Tory, and have been defending Liverpool!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    @MaxPB - I'm not trying to be facetious but have you considered the possibility that it's the linkage between the right and Brexit that is at the root of the severe positioning problem you now face?

    No.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    Scott_P said:
    The're just trolling Farage now to see how apoplectic he can be.
    Macron's desperation is touching. The Frogs are going to have to start pulling their weight in the EU project without the UK's largesse.
    Macron's giving a masterclass in how to win elections.
    Yes, fight a split opposition.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:
    Cheap shot from Macron. Revolting little creep.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    The opprobrium MaxPB is getting tonight is completely ridiculous. He was one of the very, very few Tories on here who saw it coming. It might be worth listening to the guy.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    Election anecdote:

    The Tories increased their vote share by more than 10% in 57 seats and still LOST.

    In fact, in 5 of those seats, 4 in Scotland, it actually helped Labour defeat the SNP.
    They also helped Labour win Sheffield Hallam by increasing their vote share from 13.6% to 23.8%

    The Tories increased their vote share by more than 10% in 142 constituencies.

    Labour increased their vote share by more than 10% in 301 constituencies.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Most people would agree and if I was wrong on that key national deprivation and education stats would support that view.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    I am not a Tory, and have been defending Liverpool!
    Good for you but you start to think they only want to argue amongst themselves. But as long as they dont listen then the more chance there is they will go down the plug hole. Two weeks ago they were writing off labour and the lib dems, funny how the narrative is changing. Just realised your post went in before mine it was dirrected at who ever said it was a shit hole
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    MikeL said:

    House of Lords back below 800 Peers - first time for quite some while - think it peaked around 835 approx a year ago.

    Reason is two Peers now out because didn't attend during the last parliamentary year - one Con, one Lab.

    So State of the Parties as new session begins:

    Con 252, Lab 200, LD 102, Other parties 14, Crossbench 175, Non-affiliated 30, Bishops 25, Total 798.

    I predict a significant boost for "Other parties" is imminent!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    Exactly, it was purely overconfidence of a landslide beforehand on the part of the Tories which makes 2017 seem a bad result, in raw factual terms it was the second best Tory general election result in 25 years
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    Exactly, it is purely overconfidence of a landslide beforehand on the part of the Tories which makes 2017 seem a bad result, in raw factual terms it was the second best Tory general election result in 25 years
    The votes were in all the wrong places.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Chris said:

    MikeL said:

    House of Lords back below 800 Peers - first time for quite some while - think it peaked around 835 approx a year ago.

    Reason is two Peers now out because didn't attend during the last parliamentary year - one Con, one Lab.

    So State of the Parties as new session begins:

    Con 252, Lab 200, LD 102, Other parties 14, Crossbench 175, Non-affiliated 30, Bishops 25, Total 798.

    I predict a significant boost for "Other parties" is imminent!
    The orange colour will be more visible soon.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    Exactly, it is purely overconfidence of a landslide beforehand on the part of the Tories which makes 2017 seem a bad result, in raw factual terms it was the second best Tory general election result in 25 years
    The votes were in all the wrong places.
    Not as inefficient as Labour's vote.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    Exactly, it is purely overconfidence of a landslide beforehand on the part of the Tories which makes 2017 seem a bad result, in raw factual terms it was the second best Tory general election result in 25 years
    The votes were in all the wrong places.
    Not really either, apart from 2015 the Tories won more seats than any election since 1992
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    One thing I would say is that one of the reasons Labour got 40% is that it won over between a quarter and a third of all UKIP 2015 voters.

    If ardent Remainers think that the true mandate of GE2017 is to reverse Brexit, they should consider how Labour might fare if it slips back to 36-37% of the vote because they desert or, worse still, rejoin the Tories.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    So there's me thinking that the Labour Party has reunited...

    ...and then I go and read the comments under an article on Labour List and realise they're still at each other's throats.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    It should be noted that the Conservatives are not only in a much better position than not only 1997 or 1992 but even 2010 in large parts of the country.

    Where they are doing much worse is in London, other cities and anywhere with high numbers of students.

    Now part of the decline in urban areas is because of demographic change which has demolished Conservative chances in the likes of Ilford N, Enfield N and Croydon C but young graduates and students have been shat on by the Conservative government through tuition fees and unaffordable housing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
    Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Chris said:

    Jason said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    619 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    The citizens of nowhere line still really pisses me off.


    I can see Momentum making a big push to oust IDS in the next election. He's a hate figure amongst them.
    Chingford & Woodford Green

    Conservative hold

    LAB Bilal Mahmood 20638

    CON Iain Duncan Smith 23076

    LD Deborah Unger 2043

    GRN Sinead King 1204


    IDS had a 9000 lead cut by 2/3rds
    Although his share of the vote was up slightly to 49%.
    Labour will squeeze the living crap out of the Green and Liberal vote next time and take the seat. The Tories will probably never get it back because of demographic change. It's a nice middle class seat that is still – just – affordable (in London terms) right on the edge of Epping Forest, which is a beautiful place. Very attractive to metropolitans with young families.
    I agree the Tories will take the seat next time, mainly because the flow of white British people out of London will continue.
    Corbyn's blueprint for Britain is to emulate metroplolitan London. Remember he described Islam as a 'wonderful religion'. I wonder how many of the middle class parents who voted for him truly understand what a dangerous lunatic he is.
    Is that the state we're in now? Anyone who says anything polite about Islam is a lunatic?

    Some of you people should consider what you'd sound like if you substituted "Jews" for "Muslims" and "Judaism" for "Islam".



    I don't think Jason is in touch with "middle Britain" as much as he thinks he is. I'm sure Cameron has said similar things about Islam as Corbyn and he actually won a majority. Throughout the campaign Jason keot saying "this is it this is the thing that will destroy Corbyn et al". He (and most of us) never imagined Corbyn/labour would get 40%. Time for some humility I think.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    nielh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:



    .

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    .
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.

    All techies should be Tories by rights, but I wonder how many of them are.
    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    Election setbacks always expose the fact that both Labour and the Tories are coalitions. Victories - or advances - mask that for a while. The PLP clapped Corbyn today. We'll see how long that lasts. I suspect the new shadow cabinet may deflate the mood somewhat.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    It does seem strange for the sake of 10 more votes
    calum said:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:
    Labour patriot. For a foreigner.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2017
    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
    Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
    For example, they should stop talking about house building and just get on with it.

    Oh, and decked = fecked. Stupid auto correct.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Scott_P said:
    Cheap shot from Macron. Revolting little creep.
    Macron said "we are always welcome back" He was hardly going to say "get lost we never want the likes of you back again" was he. As ever Faisal is putting his own spin on things.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    According to the BBC website Labour polled 39.99% of the UK vote share. A bit annoying if anyone was betting on them getting 40% or above.

    That will not allow for the c**k up in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport which would take Labour over the 40%
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    If only Nick Timothy had need reading PB on the night they would have clarified the policy the following day with a cost cap of around £200k which could be paid back with other assets from the estate. So the home could be passed down to the children.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
    For example, they should stop talking about house building and just get on with it.

    Oh, and decked = fecked. Stupid auto correct.
    Those numbers do suggest survation and yougov got the right result but with the wrong workings . Their weightings suggested an 18-24 turnout of around 80%? While they will be judged on their final polls they are clearly not the gospel (but did a lot better than myself!)
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Most people would agree and if I was wrong on that key national deprivation and education stats would support that view.
    Top 10 most Deprived English Constituencies per HoC Library 2015

    Liverpool, Walton
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill
    Birmingham, Ladywood
    Blackley and Broughton (Manchester)
    Nottingham North
    Middlesbrough
    Blackpool South
    Birmingham, Erdington
    Manchester Central
    Knowsley

    Education Skills and training most deprived English constituencies per HoC Library 2015

    Nottingham North
    Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough
    Bradford East
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill
    Walsall North
    Middlesbrough
    Leeds East
    Rotherham
    Bradford West
    Great Grimsby

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
    For example, they should stop talking about house building and just get on with it.

    Oh, and decked = fecked. Stupid auto correct.
    We do not have a building industry large enough to build the promised number of houses in the next 3/4 years . We could always employ more EU migrants as builders , I suppose .
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
    Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
    A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    I once went out with a girl from Hodge Hill. She didn't like the fact she was seeing a 'posh boy' from Solihull!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
    Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
    Indeed.

    And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.

    But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.

    And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.

    Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:

    Barnet +82k
    Brent +84k
    Croydon +64k
    Greenwich +64k
    Hillingdon +63k
    Redbridge +74k

    https://www.citypopulation.de/php/uk-greaterlondon.php

    How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
    For example, they should stop talking about house building and just get on with it.

    Oh, and decked = fecked. Stupid auto correct.
    Those numbers do suggest survation and yougov got the right result but with the wrong workings . Their weightings suggested an 18-24 turnout of around 80%? While they will be judged on their final polls they are clearly not the gospel (but did a lot better than myself!)
    I presume that refers to YouGov's individual polls, not to the large model that projected a hung parliament. Turnout in the large model was based on historical data from 2010 and 2015.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Given the response to the to the toread header on here it is looking obvious that the tory view of patriosm is ensuring a tory government long may that view continue, burry your heads in the sand and fail to embrace the world as it is.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,358

    On topic, the patriotism of Labour figures like Clement Attlee, Hugh Gaitskell, Roy Hattersley and, yes, Joff Wild were and are absolutely beyond question.

    Serious question: Do you think the patriotism of Conservative figures like Ted Heath, Ken Clarke or Michael Heseltine is questionable?
    Yes. And I would add you to the list as well.

    You have freely admitted you wish to see the end of the UK with it being subsumed into a federal state.

    Ken Clarke in his infamous interview said he looked forward to a day when Parliament was nothing more than a council chamber in Europe. Now whilst it is a perfectly right and proper to hold such views and to campaign for them, they are incompatible with the concept of patriotism and with the belief in national self determination and national sovereignty.

    The big BUT of course is that there is nothing in principle wrong with that. You and I share different views of the value of the nation state and of its place in the maintenance of democratic freedoms. Whilst I think you are wrong that does not mean I think you are evil or even mildly naughty. Just that when it comes to the specific concept of patriotism one cannot be a patriot and still believe in the end of the nation state.

    Please realise I am in no way critical of you for this. You are continually open about your pro federalist views and that is just as justified a world view as that of Westphalian Sovereignty. It is just not a view I share.
    Have you got a link to Clarke's quotation about the 'council chamber'? Not saying you're wrong, but Ken himself always insisted Norman Lamont made it up.
    I have always seen it listed as being in an article in the International Currency Review, Vol. 23, No. 4. Since it is disseminated so widely and I had never seen a single refutation I have always taken it as being accurate.
    ICR was a very expensive journal that only appears to be available in a few academic libraries. I wouldn’t be surprised if no-one has actually bothered to check. Maybe I’ll pop into my local one and take a look.

    Incidentally, the author of said journal (who died in 2010) appears amongst other things to have been a) a 9/11 Truther, b) to have believed that Edward Heath was a Nazi mole recruited by Germany before WWII and continued to work for a secret post war project dedicated to the continuation of the third reich. Oh and c) that Perestroika was a Soviet deception designed to mislead the West & that the collapse of communism was a smokescreen.

    (It should be entirely unsurprising that as far as this guy was concerned, the EU was a Nazi project all along.)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    surbiton said:
    Labour patriot. For a foreigner.
    The left really do make it easy to caricature them as unpatriotic.

    But SO is right that this is an issue the Labour party must adress as both Corbyn and Ed were painted in this light. Thats why Dan Jarvis should be bought into the front bench. It would be a PR move but that is the shallow media age we live in.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    619 said:

    ab195 said:

    RE: "Citizens of nowhere". I think a great many people in this country would say that anyone who genuinely thinks of themselves as a "citizen of the world" should not be allowed anywhere near the corridors of power. I suspect they would also, in general, not trust anyone of that view to have the county's interests at heart.

    Many will disagree with that, and they are entitled to their own world view, but they need to understand that outside of London that's a pretty mainstream view.

    London and most other big cities. And with most people under the age of 35.
    Amazing how many people renounce their citizenship of the world when they need help from an embassy or consulate...
    Seriously? Your side and message were rejected just last week. We need a new inclusive one which appeals to our base and previous supporters in the 24-45 age range who have graduated recently and are unable to get on the property ladder with their wages being leeched by some parasitical (Tory) landlord. Many of those people consider themselves to be internationalist rather than nationalist, we need to get them back on side in the same way Dave was able to. May and your team are complete poison to them and have put off enough of our base to leave us in what feels like a worse position than 1997. At least then Labour were only able to win by copying us, May lost whole copying Labour and moves the centre ground of politics significantly to the left, for nothing. It's time for you to reflect on those failures and why your message is so unpopular with out key voters.
    2017 was miles better than 1997 and 2001, I campaigned in all 3, especially 2001 and 2017. In 1997 the Tories got 31% and 165 seats, in 2001 32% and 166 seats and in 2017 42% and 318 seats. In fact in terms of voteshare and seats 2017 was the second best Tory general election result after 2015 since 1992
    We got 11 seats in London, and 0 in Scotland and Wales in 1997. We lost 5 in Herts., and 8 in Kent. We were obliterated throughout the Midlands and North. There's no comparison.
    One thing I would say is that one of the reasons Labour got 40% is that it won over between a quarter and a third of all UKIP 2015 voters.

    If ardent Remainers think that the true mandate of GE2017 is to reverse Brexit, they should consider how Labour might fare if it slips back to 36-37% of the vote because they desert or, worse still, rejoin the Tories.
    43/37 probably gives about 345/235 in terms of seats.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
    Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
    I recon a 2017 osborne manifesto would have stuck boosters under the lifetime isa to peel off just enough of the u35/u40 vote to see the conservatives home.

    100% on £25k savings. £50k inside london.

    Pay for it via stamp duty on over £500k + screwing the BTL'ers further.

    Keep on blowing up the bubble.

    Insane economics, but great retail politics that turns non-tories into tories.

    I woudn't have voted for it, but the tories would have been way more popular with the 25-40's than they were this time;

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    spire2 said:

    It does seem strange for the sake of 10 more votes

    calum said:
    It's easier to strike one deal than to strike lots of deals.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited June 2017
    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North Midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    MaxPB said:

    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
    Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
    Indeed.

    And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.

    But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.

    And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.

    Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:

    Barnet +82k
    Brent +84k
    Croydon +64k
    Greenwich +64k
    Hillingdon +63k
    Redbridge +74k

    https://www.citypopulation.de/php/uk-greaterlondon.php

    How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
    It would be an attack on additional property, not on the primary home. That is the distinction which makes it acceptable to me. I'd like to see a situation where the houses in private rent goes down from ~4.5m today to around 2.5m in five years, providing an additional 400k houses and flats to the market per year, offsetting the need to build new property a bit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    What a charming guy Macron is and what a contrast to the reptilian Johnson. If May wants to have any sort of successful Brexit her first move should be to sack Johnson.

    The discreet charm of Manny Macron.
    Even the Mail have noticed.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4600816/Macron-prepare-watch-England-France-friendly.html
    Perhaps security could be loosened, just this once.
    If only......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    England 1 France 0
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Con take Bootle? not for some time!
    I'm a long way from bootle but am still a scouser, i dont consider my self uneducated and if you had ever been there
    you would find wonderful public parks, tree lined avenues and a wonderful sense of cultura and history. You typify
    what is wrong with the tories
    Come off it, I have unfortunately had to go there, get outside the centre and most of it is pretty intimidating, full of scumbags and cesspit areas and the place stinks of weed like no other. An awful City, plus Bootle and Kirkby as well, wouldn't live there for a teachers pension.
    Well i encorrale you to keep this attitude up, not that long ago the suburbs voted tory your rather awfull sterotyping view what will destroy the party you seem to support and it will be well deseved.
    A long time ago and all the stats support my view, it's a horrible, depressing place outside the centre, some parts are almost third world. That's what slavish Labour voting gets you local and national, similar but not quite so bad in Manchester and Nottingham, also shitholes in most areas.
    Your view of Liverpool outside the centre its strange, south Liverpool and also parts of the other cities you quote are lovely. I
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    DUP lose 3 seats !
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    England 1-0 :smile:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Brom said:

    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that decked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    Yep!

    The positives for the Tories are those oldies will be easier to win back than the youngsters, but they still need to do more regarding house building and university grants to ensure the 18-24s don't split so dramatically if they want to win back places like Canterbury and Warwick.
    To be honest, I have some sympathy for the under 35s. Do we want individual freedom, capitalism, and a land of opportunity to win out, or not?

    If we do, drastic surgery is needed.

    The lessons of history for the Tory party on what happens when it infights, has a small majority and becomes very unpopular are clear.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Interesting piece by Joff. The phrase "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" comes from Samuel Johnson, and similarly was attacking fake patriotism of the kinds that Joff cites. There's a lot in that, though like "being British" it's elusive, as what seems fake to one person can seem moving to another - the flag-waving at the last night of the Proms, for instance, is inspiring, fun, silly or alienating, depending on whom you ask.

    The Labour tradition is to see patriotism as intricately wound up with the traditions of ordinary people rather than pomp and ceremony - Orwell was strong on that. Conversely it's plastic to try to enlist patriotism as an excuse for bad policy - there is nothing patriotic in sending our troops to kill people in Libya because we prefer autocrat A to autocrat B.

    But it's probably true to say that younger people tend to take it all fairly lightly anyway. Most people of all political views are fond of our country, comfortable in it and want it to do well, evenif we may disagree on how to do that. But people who bellow that British is Always Best are rarer than they used to be and seen as a bit, well, un-British.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    nielh said:


    I think the tories would quite possibly be in an even worse position had they gone all out neoliberal. May was trying to capture a sense of discontent amongst many tories (ie of the old school, one nation kind - I would count many tory councillors I have worked with amongst these) towards the Cameron/Osbourne /neoliberal dismantling of the state. She was also trying to pick up UKIP voters who see the world in a somewhat similar way.

    People voted conservative in 2015 because they felt the system - however dysfunctional - worked for them and they legitimately feared the alternative. Yet after Brexit all that turned up side down. I have no doubt that many under 40 ex tory voters would have voted remain. I don't see what options the conservatives have.

    The Conservatives are fecked among the under 35s as long as the tuition fees and generation rent issues remain unresolved.
    Yes I think that's absolutely true. Private renting and tuition fees both need to be addressed. Private renting especially as it is a transfer of wealth from the working young to the non-working old.
    Indeed.

    And one possible solution is to tax the arse off the BTL gang so they're forced to sell up and property prices fall.

    But that's an attack on property rights which you oppose.

    And the population growth in London has been so huge that's inevitable that property became unaffordable.

    Look at some of these population increases by borough between 1991 and 2015:

    Barnet +82k
    Brent +84k
    Croydon +64k
    Greenwich +64k
    Hillingdon +63k
    Redbridge +74k

    https://www.citypopulation.de/php/uk-greaterlondon.php

    How can formerly Conservative voting suburbia maintain its cohesion and traditions when undergoing such huge changes ?
    It would be an attack on additional property, not on the primary home. That is the distinction which makes it acceptable to me. I'd like to see a situation where the houses in private rent goes down from ~4.5m today to around 2.5m in five years, providing an additional 400k houses and flats to the market per year, offsetting the need to build new property a bit.
    One of the factors behind the BTL take off was the crap performance of pensions.

    I wonder if reversing Gordon Brown's pension tax increase while simultaneously massively increasing taxation on BTL is possible.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    By the way, do we have voting intentions from that YouGov poll?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    It is not just that effect , The new proposed Blackpool North and Fleetwood seat was clearly Conservative on the 2015 results but is now very marginal on the 2017 results .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    I'm surprised most landlords actually make money.

    Our current ones are hopelessly naive. Didn't make us sign any sort of inventory or confirmation of the condition of home at the time our tenancy commenced.

    Fair to say we won't be getting any of our deposit deducted.

    Lucky for them we are very good tenants.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    calum said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    DUP lose 3 seats !
    Never! Never! Never!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    One of the factors behind the BTL take off was the crap performance of pensions.

    I wonder if reversing Gordon Brown's pension tax increase while simultaneously massively increasing taxation on BTL is possible.

    Nah, fuck them. They've been cosseted with tax cuts and above wage growth pension rises for 7 years. Working people are getting fucked over because they have to pay for the pensions and healthcare of their parents who also have decided to treat their children like walking bank accounts through the private rental market. No sympathy.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    Yeah, it wasn't the youth vote that fecked the Tories... it was the rest of them!
    What motivated the youth to turn out may have been similar to the reasons why the middle aged swung so heavily labour, and oldies swithched back to labour to an extent. They are not independent of eachother.

    The polling shows the manifesto (the parts that got the headlines) was a disaster from start to finish. also tuition fees is having an effect on what people study, with some very bright stuents deciding to do free courses (such as nursing, physio, nutrition etc) instead of say stem degrees. That is a shame.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Election anecdote

    Labour needs a swing of just 3.5% to get 325 seats , compared to over 10% after 2015.

    44 of these will be from the Tories. 1 from PC and a whopping 17 from the SNP.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    PaulM said:

    macisback said:

    nichomar said:

    macisback said:

    Labour highest % last week

    Liverpool Walton (Dan Carden MP) 85.7%
    Knowsley (George Howarth) 85.3%
    Liverpool Riverside (Louise Ellman) 84.5%
    Bootle (Peter Dowd) 84%
    East Ham (Stephen Timms) 83.2%
    Liverpool West Derby (Stephen Twigg) 82.8%
    Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood) 82.7%
    Tottenham (David Lammy) 81.6%
    Birmingham Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) 81.1%
    Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) 80.6%

    How thick are the scousers, decades of Labour and still the biggest shithole in England. That is one thing that won't change anytime soon.
    Just the kind of attitude to appeal to the voters and you want to win a GE with a workable majority.
    Most people would agree and if I was wrong on that key national deprivation and education stats would support that view.
    Top 10 most Deprived English Constituencies per HoC Library 2015

    Liverpool, Walton
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill
    Birmingham, Ladywood
    Blackley and Broughton (Manchester)
    Nottingham North
    Middlesbrough
    Blackpool South
    Birmingham, Erdington
    Manchester Central
    Knowsley

    Education Skills and training most deprived English constituencies per HoC Library 2015

    Nottingham North
    Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough
    Bradford East
    Birmingham, Hodge Hill
    Walsall North
    Middlesbrough
    Leeds East
    Rotherham
    Bradford West
    Great Grimsby

    Most deprived places in England
    Click heading to sort. Download this data
    Authority
    Number of LSOAs amongst 10% most deprived
    Proportion of LSOAs in the district that are amongst the most deprived
    Number of LSOAs
    % Change
    SOURCE: DCLG
    Liverpool 148 51 -14 -9
    Middlesbrough 41 47 0 0
    Manchester 118 46 -17 -13
    Knowsley 45 45 -2 -4
    Kingston upon Hull 70 43 -2 -3
    Hackney 57 42 -19 -25
    Tower Hamlets 52 40 -20 -28
    Birmingham 251 39 -3 -1
    Blackpool 35 37 5 17
    Hartlepool 21 36 1 5
    Blackburn with Darwen 31 34 -2 -6
    Burnley 20 33 6 43
    Salford 47 33 -4 -8



  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Just playing with Baxter - looking at overall vote efficiency - take 2.5% off Con so it's equal votes - Con 41, Lab 41 (give the extra 2.5% to LDs as I imagine they surely make a bit of a comeback next time) gives:

    Con 297 seats
    Lab 279 seats

    Con 18 seats ahead. So overall by complete fluke we've ended up with a pretty level playing field - equal votes has the two parties pretty close and the boundaries are also so fair that updating them won't make hardly any overall net difference.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    All I'm saying is this: when the Tories next win a majority, it'll be down to people like MaxPB, who are actually thinking about how to win over the demographics the Tories lost on June 8th.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    MikeL said:

    Just playing with Baxter - looking at overall vote efficiency - take 2.5% off Con so it's equal votes - Con 41, Lab 41 (give the extra 2.5% to LDs as I imagine they surely make a bit of a comeback next time) gives:

    Con 297 seats
    Lab 279 seats

    Con 18 seats ahead. So overall by complete fluke we've ended up with a pretty level playing field - equal votes has the two parties pretty close and the boundaries are also so fair that updating them won't make hardly any overall net difference.

    They might go through if that's perceived to be the case.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Brom said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40265374

    Frustrating that youth turnout was only 58% as I had predicted. The story of this election is the elderly switchers from Tory to Lab post dementia tax in my opinion. They made the bigger difference.

    I really think the Scottish exemption from WFA cuts annoyed many people, even those not affected.

    There was an anecdote here about a bloke saying "why should my six grandkids pay tuition fees when the Scots get it for free".

    And then you have a Conservative government giving more advantages to Scotland.

    Madness.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    OUT said:

    calum said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    DUP lose 3 seats !
    Never! Never! Never!
    SF gain 2 !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    edited June 2017
    Do you want a castanet-clacker for a neighbour?

    https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/874633294498934785
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    One of the factors behind the BTL take off was the crap performance of pensions.

    I wonder if reversing Gordon Brown's pension tax increase while simultaneously massively increasing taxation on BTL is possible.

    Nah, fuck them. They've been cosseted with tax cuts and above wage growth pension rises for 7 years. Working people are getting fucked over because they have to pay for the pensions and healthcare of their parents who also have decided to treat their children like walking bank accounts through the private rental market. No sympathy.
    I meant cutting taxes on pension contributions from the workers not on pensions that have been taken by the retired..
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    England 1-1 France
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    1-1
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:
    Labour patriot. For a foreigner.
    As bad economic news will start piling, the mood music will rapidly move towards REMAIN. Remember Remain only needs a 1.9% swing.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Do you want a castanet-clacker for a neighbour?

    https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/874633294498934785

    Pathetic by the DM.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    calum said:

    OUT said:

    calum said:

    MikeL said:

    Not sure if already posted but Baxter has run 2017 GE on proposed new boundaries, and new boundaries now make almost no difference:

    Con lose 20 seats
    Lab lose 17 seats
    Others lose 13 seats

    Still a Hung Parliament - just - Con get 298 out of 600.

    Reason is what has just happened - Lab has gained some larger seats - in particular in London and South. Whilst Con has gained some smaller seats - in particular in Scotland and North midlands.

    So average seat size (in terms of electorate) is now more equal as it is - so new boundaries make little overall difference - though would of course make differences in individual areas.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    DUP lose 3 seats !
    Never! Never! Never!
    SF gain 2 !
    Without any extra work.
This discussion has been closed.