As bad as things are now for the tories, I don't think the next election is all set for Labour.
1) The tories campaign was utter rubbish. Everyone accepts that. It won't be the case next time (hopefully) 2) No one thought labour was going to get into power. People will be looking a lot at their policies next time. 3) May won't be leader.
Those are things to build on and prepare for. It's tough, but it's doable.
Public opinion is both changeable and unpredictable.
My advice to the Conservatives is:-
1. Keep calm and carry on, 2. Don't form a circular firing squad, 3. Show some humility, 4. Don't throw in the towel.
1. A work in progress ... just about. 2. See above ... more difficult. 3. Fail so far. 4. On the canvass ... ref count up to 7 ....
Mr. B, to be fair, Raikkonen might well have gotten fastest lap in those circumstances. He had the best tyre, a very good car, and he quite likes fastest laps (and he had clear air).
I don't think the Rosberg speculation will come off. Vettel's not going to want a rival and Ferrari generally have a number one driver approach.
Kubica coming back, if he has the pace, would be great.
Not inconceivable, I grant you - but would you, at any point during the race, have bet on it at EVENS ? :-)
Kubica will be back, and will be fast - or so I predict.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Corbyn will only fight the next election as Labour leader if it is comparatively soon. If it isn't he'll stand down once changes to the leadership election rules have been made. Should that happen, Labour will go into the next election with a left-wing leader who does not have Corbyn's baggage. If the Tories have buggered up Brexit, Labour will then win a big majority.
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%.
That includes a stoppage of £965 for the student loan repayment. I am not sure what the source of that figure is but it seems too low; it suggests a debt of about £15,000. Most owe more than that do they not? Repaid at that rate a graduate would be paying more in deductions than I was. £25,000 over 25 years at 4% would mean a graduate of today had the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
That will not happen. We all know that. The Tories will find a way to unite.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
"Voters have had enough of being treated as bit-players in the Conservative party’s self-absorbed psycho drama about Europe. Hard Brexit has no mandate. By pursuing a more moderate Brexit, Mrs May’s last act could still be her finest." https://www.ft.com/content/f8b09872-4d2e-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
An assessment without a shred of evidence. I'm in France at the moment and have been more or less since their election and the mood of optimism is everywhere and tangible.
Spent the last 3 weeks there and found the same thing, positive atmosphere and enthusiasm, total contrast to the negativity emanating from the Glumbucket and her chums that I found on my return
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
It's amazing that usually, it is at the time of greatest certainty of one particular position, that the opposing position gains ascendancy (often seen, for example, with inflexion points during bull or bear markets).
At the point of greatest certainty, therefore, over our political system, it shouldn't have been a surprise that Lab would find itself resurgent. The only surprise should be that it was with Jezza at the helm rather than someone else.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
An assessment without a shred of evidence. I'm in France at the moment and have been more or less since their election and the mood of optimism is everywhere and tangible.
Spent the last 3 weeks there and found the same thing, positive atmosphere and enthusiasm, total contrast to the negativity emanating from the Glumbucket and her chums that I found on my return
Hardly surprising - you can sell optimising (see Blair in 1997) - negativity doesn't sell as demonstrated this week.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
13.6 m people still voted Conservative.
Both parties built a coalition of voters. Who's will hold? That's the question.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
I agree. Why wouldn't something like that have a big impact?
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%.
That includes a stoppage of £965 for the student loan repayment. I am not sure what the source of that figure is but it seems too low; it suggests a debt of about £15,000. Most owe more than that do they not? Repaid at that rate a graduate would be paying more in deductions than I was. £25,000 over 25 years at 4% would mean a graduate of today had the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
I'm obviously missing something here.
You are very probably not missing anything. The GBP, meanwhile, doesn't quite get as down and dirty about the details and prefers to "feel" its way around these things.
Judging by reactions at work George Osborne is more unpopular than Corbyn and May combined. I don't see any path for him to return to politics, his bridges are well and truly burned.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway ad they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Fred Goodwin and Philip Green walking away with fortunes while the employees and taxpayers paid the price have done terrible damage to the reputation of free market capitalism.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway ad they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
Unless they get the opposition to buy in to any deal. It's not as though Labour aren't demanding to have a role in determining Brexit policy...
OTOH, that would require some adroit politics on the part of May and her team........
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Not quite correct. A PM who dies in office leaves a short term vacancy.
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
Unless they get the opposition to buy in to any deal. It's not as though Labour aren't demanding to have a role in determining Brexit policy...
OTOH, that would require some adroit politics on the part of May and her team........
It would be a mistake. Why taint yourself if you are Lab with the Cons' newly regained toxicity? Why associate yourself with such a f*ck up? It is the opposition's job to oppose, not to prop up.
I don't think so, fudged Brexit is now more likely but reversing the EU referendum and rejoining the EU would not only be a national humiliation it would see a UKIP now led by a returning Farage revive quicker than Lazarus
I think we've already had the national humiliation - which will be heaped upon us yet further in the Brexit negotiations. I agree that UKIP would resurge, and that would be a problem for a Conservative Party parked narrowly across UKIP territory, but looking at the demographics - capturing that anti-Brexit Millienial vote would be in the long-term interests of a Party which has perhaps fatally wounded itself in the short-term.
Many in the EU would not have the UK back anyway ad they know soon enough the same whinging would start all over again. Young voters will never vote Tory, the best that can be hoped for is to make inroads into the youth vote
I am starting to feel encouraged. Should the Tories take us down the hard BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it. Should we go down the soft BREXIT route, the British public will never let them forget it! The Tory party is fcuked no matter what they do!
Unless they get the opposition to buy in to any deal. It's not as though Labour aren't demanding to have a role in determining Brexit policy...
OTOH, that would require some adroit politics on the part of May and her team........
It would be a mistake. Why taint yourself if you are Lab with the Cons' newly regained toxicity? Why associate yourself with such a f*ck up? It is the opposition's job to oppose, not to prop up.
Hey, it's not my idea - it's what Labour spokespeople were asking for on the radio this morning.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
13.6 m people still voted Conservative.
Both parties built a coalition of voters. Who's will hold? That's the question.
I just don't buy the argument that the Conservatives have a moral obligation to go into Opposition, despite finishing first.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
The boil that was never lanced
If a few bankers had gone to jail or jumped through their office windows public feeling would be different.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
An assessment without a shred of evidence. I'm in France at the moment and have been more or less since their election and the mood of optimism is everywhere and tangible.
Spent the last 3 weeks there and found the same thing, positive atmosphere and enthusiasm, total contrast to the negativity emanating from the Glumbucket and her chums that I found on my return
Hardly surprising - you can sell optimising (see Blair in 1997) - negativity doesn't sell as demonstrated this week.
and there was me believing we were heading towards the nirvana and freedom of a post Brexit UK
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Yes, much of what's being said about the Tories being doomed was also said in 1990-2.
I was in Majorca when the shit hit the fan on election night.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
I'm wearing two hats here - as a pro-EU (not merely Remainer - I actually like the EU) voter with a lot of familiarity with how it works, and as a Corbynite Labour loyalist.
With the first hat - yes, it'd in practice by perfectly feasible to stay on if talks produce what both sides recognise is no satisfactory outcome. Ultimately the EU is driven by political consensus, and where there's a will there's a way - stopping the clock indefinitely, legal interpretation, whatever. I think the EU would see it as a return to sanity and would be happy to oblige, on condition that we promised not to flounce out again in the next 10 years.
But from the Labour viewpoint I see no big upsides and lots of downsides in leading on this at the moment. Corbyn's view is essentially that membership per se is not the key issue, what matters is the terms of our future relationship: the default is to assume we're leaving, but if so then we need to have customs-free access and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides. As for free movement, Corbyn can best be described as intensely relaxed, but persuaded by colleagues that something must be done to appease public concern on unrestricted movement - any mild restrictions would be fine.
If public opinion shifted decisively against leaving or Labour took over Government responsibility, Labour could fairly easily segue into a "This isn't going to work out, let's stay" position. But unless actually in Government, I don't expect us to be leading the charge.
Yep - sounds about right. However, it is not what McDonnell is saying. And that is a problem. He needs to be reined in on this as he is clearly not reflecting Labour policy or, more important, the views of Labour members. As you say, being in the Single Market in and of itself is not the key issue, it's what we replace it with that matters.
That's right. There is an important distinction to be made between means and ends.
Membership of the EU is not an end in itself, it is a means to an end. Barry Gardiner has made this distinction very clearly.
“What we’ve said is that we need those benefits [growth, jobs and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides], and whether they’re achieved through reformed membership of the the single market and the customs union, or through a new, bespoke trading arrangement, is actually secondary to achieving the benefits.”
Mrs May seems to have different ends in mind. Reducing or stopping immigration or "Taking back control".
Back in the day when I ran major change projects in industry, my motto was Agree the "What" before the "How". Agree on the objective before you discuss the various means of achieving it.
I heard a vox pop from Birmingham yesterday. An area which split 50/50 pro and anti Brexit. The fist part from a pro Brexit area the second from an anti. It was clear to me that the pro Brexiteers had lost their confidence. 'Well we didn't really know what it was about' was common. The Remainers by contrast seemed to know exactly what it was about and articulated it with some precision.
I'm a great believer in the insightfulness of vox pops (it told me in the first week of the Referendum campaign that Remain could be in trouble) and this told me that ordinary Leavers are not as convinced by their decision as the Remainers and if things continue to go pear shaped are likely to turn on those who didn't explain it properly.
The narrative now is that Brexit is a huge mess. Even most Leave voters think that.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
13.6 m people still voted Conservative.
Both parties built a coalition of voters. Who's will hold? That's the question.
I just don't buy the argument that the Conservatives have a moral obligation to go into Opposition, despite finishing first.
No I agree, there's no moral obligation, it's down to how they see this panning out and what is best for the country and for them.
I was in Majorca when the shit hit the fan on election night.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
Nah. It's the British political system. As you may have heard Cons politician after Cons politician note on the radio: "the voters have put us in this position."
And indeed they have.
They are now about to understand what the consequences of that decision are.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
The boil that was never lanced
If a few bankers had gone to jail or jumped through their office windows public feeling would be different.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
I think we are about to see a move sharply left. Wealth taxes, aggressive redistribution and hard statism are about to become not just agreeable but the Norm. Laissez faire is dead, it died in the autumn of 2008 by its own hand. We have now come through the mourning period and vengeance is in the air.
Certainly it can be argued that everything that has happened, Coalition, Brexit, Corbyn, May - can be all be traced back to 2008's economic implosion.
The boil that was never lanced
If a few bankers had gone to jail or jumped through their office windows public feeling would be different.
No. People need to be shown the money. Unregulated free-market capitalism is, and always will be, socially unsustainable.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
An assessment without a shred of evidence. I'm in France at the moment and have been more or less since their election and the mood of optimism is everywhere and tangible.
Spent the last 3 weeks there and found the same thing, positive atmosphere and enthusiasm, total contrast to the negativity emanating from the Glumbucket and her chums that I found on my return
Hardly surprising - you can sell optimising (see Blair in 1997) - negativity doesn't sell as demonstrated this week.
and there was me believing we were heading towards the nirvana and freedom of a post Brexit UK
We may well be heading that way but May didn't sell that did she....
Brexit has no democratic mandate now, as a year has passed since the vote. In that time enough Leavers will have died and enough new Remainers will have turned 18 to make abandoning Brexit the only democratically legitimate course of action.
I thought opinion polling had shown very little change in the remain/leave split?
There's been one poll post election showing the decision reversed - so obviously that's the one we should pay heed to......
Actually no but circumstances have changed so dramatically that ploughing on regardless would show an inflexibility that was one of the reasons Leavers gave for wanting to leave in the first place.
Perhaps it's Time to Rage Against the Machine. As the Nobel prize winner for Literature famously said
Come senators, congressmen Please heed the call Don't stand in the doorway Don't block up the hall For he that gets hurt Will be he who has stalled There's a battle outside And it is ragin'. It'll soon shake your windows And rattle your walls For the times they are a-changin'.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
It turns on whether EEA/EFTA is perceived as Brexit or not.
I was in Majorca when the shit hit the fan on election night.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
Nah. It's the British political system. As you may have heard Cons politician after Cons politician note on the radio: "the voters have put us in this position."
And indeed they have.
They are now about to understand what the consequences of that decision are.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Not quite correct. A PM who dies in office leaves a short term vacancy.
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%.
That includes a stoppage of £965 for the student loan repayment. I am not sure what the source of that figure is but it seems too low; it suggests a debt of about £15,000. Most owe more than that do they not? Repaid at that rate a graduate would be paying more in deductions than I was. £25,000 over 25 years at 4% would mean a graduate of today had the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
I'm obviously missing something here.
Well, the obvious thing you're missing is that living costs, especially housing are far higher in real terms than they were for you in the 1980s.
You also don't appear to be aware of how student loan repayments work. They have nothing to do with the size of the debt or the interest rate but are determined by the borrower's gross salary (9% on everything earned over £21k)
Most students are currently leaving university with a debt of £40k with an interest rate of 3-6% (the exact rate again depends on your salary ranging between RPI+0 and RPI+3)
@jessicaelgot: Some Midlands Lab MPs, (where Labour did actually lose some seats) nervous about single market talk. Promised voters no Brexit backslide.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
Probably - but I wasn't that far out on my other predictions, 2 seats and 777 votes would have seen me right on everything. I was however assuming that no matter how bad things were there would be a Tory majority of 50 and more realistically well over 100. I thought W&L would fall at about 90. If it fell at a less number then James had done well. If it didn't fall at over 90 then we had done badly. In fact it would have fallen between 0 and 10 - that was a fantastic result.
I was surprised by the Tory national campaign and with hindsight I should have seen that coming. The weird thing is the help from CCHQ here in Westmorland was excellent - how was the national campaign so bad.
You said "I don't expect the LibDems to get more than a handful of seats, and I don't expect Westmoreland & Lonsdale to be one of them."
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Not quite correct. A PM who dies in office leaves a short term vacancy.
I was in Majorca when the shit hit the fan on election night.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
Nah. It's the British political system. As you may have heard Cons politician after Cons politician note on the radio: "the voters have put us in this position."
And indeed they have.
They are now about to understand what the consequences of that decision are.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
It's only a matter of time before May's majority will go,DUP or no DUP,on so many things but if she goes for a no deal Brexit,she will surely get defeated by her emboldened pro Europeans just as she would with a softBrexit by alienating the Tory headbangers.There is no replacement Tory leader who can escape the party from her self-imposed trap but her only existential choice is to resign to live and breathe.May has become the 1st 21st century Sisyphus leader who gets her hair cut at Samson's hairdressers where Jezza is the new barber.
I heard a vox pop from Birmingham yesterday. An area which split 50/50 pro and anti Brexit. The fist part from a pro Brexit area the second from an anti. It was clear to me that the pro Brexiteers had lost their confidence. 'Well we didn't really know what it was about' was common. The Remainers by contrast seemed to know exactly what it was about and articulated it with some precision.
I'm a great believer in the insightfulness of vox pops (it told me in the first week of the Referendum campaign that Remain could be in trouble) and this told me that ordinary Leavers are not as convinced by their decision as the Remainers and if things continue to go pear shaped are likely to turn on those who didn't explain it properly.
The narrative now is that Brexit is a huge mess. Even most Leave voters think that.
True, and the idea that the Referendum result means that we have to have a hard Brexit regardless of the damage and regardless of events since then is surely incorrect.
Judging by reactions at work George Osborne is more unpopular than Corbyn and May combined. I don't see any path for him to return to politics, his bridges are well and truly burned.
Yep - his only handful of remaining supporters seem to be here, on PB.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
13.6 m people still voted Conservative.
If you accepted PR, then that would be a legitimate response. But since you don't , harking about number of votes received is irrelevant as we only count number of seats won.
That is the electoral system you prefer. So can't have it both ways.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Except, in our system of parliamentary democracy, the means of implementing the result were written into Party manifestos at a General Election, and the same voters told them to shove it
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%.
That includes a stoppage of £965 for the student loan repayment. I am not sure what the source of that figure is but it seems too low; it suggests a debt of about £15,000. Most owe more than that do they not? Repaid at that rate a graduate would be paying more in deductions than I was. £25,000 over 25 years at 4% would mean a graduate of today had the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
I'm obviously missing something here.
Well, the obvious thing you're missing is that living costs, especially housing are far higher in real terms than they were for you in the 1980s.
You also don't appear to be aware of how student loan repayments work. They have nothing to do with the size of the debt or the interest rate but are determined by the borrower's gross salary (9% on everything earned over £21k)
Most students are currently leaving university with a debt of £40k with an interest rate of 3-6% (the exact rate again depends on your salary ranging between RPI+0 and RPI+3)
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
I agree. Soft Brexit is very much on the table, and would be accepted by many. No Brexit would see hellfire unleashed, but not sure upon whom!
@PolhomeEditor: Having spent 7 weeks telling us Brexit negotiations would start 11 days after the election, David Davis now admits it probably won't happen.
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%. the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
I'm obviously missing something here.
Well, the obvious thing you're missing is that living costs, especially housing are far higher in real terms than they were for you in the 1980s.
You also don't appear to be aware of how student loan repayments work. They have nothing to do with the size of the debt or the interest rate but are determined by the borrower's gross salary (9% on everything earned over £21k)
Most students are currently leaving university with a debt of £40k with an interest rate of 3-6% (the exact rate again depends on your salary ranging between RPI+0 and RPI+3)
And that RPI+3% is a killer....
Indeed, it's appallingly high and worse than many commercial loans currently on offer. It seems deliberately designed to make it impossible to pay the loan.
Taking our £40k debt example, at a 6% interest rate this will accrue £2,400 a year. So just to break even, never mind reduce the principal a graduate would need to be earning close to £50k. Out of reach for all but the richest, who will pay back less than those in the middle.
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
Yes.
You've clearly highlighted one of the structural faultlines running through the Conservative Crackpot Coalition of Chaos.There are about 50/60 hardline BREXIT Con MP, a vast swath of pragmatic BREXITeers and about 20 remainiacs. Added to which there are the 13 SCON's who want as much access to the single market as possible. And then there is the DUP BREXIT and the open border with the south.
Messy Central.
There's another thing which is really important.
Jeremy Corbyn wants a hard Brexit.
But he wants to be Prime Minister more.
Even if he agrees 100% with Mrs May, he won't help her. Because if the Conservative government loses votes, and appears disunited, and potentially falls... then he'll be Prime Minister.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
The outcome does not matter Alastair. No matter what the outcome is, a large proportion of the public will be incensed by it and it may happen sooner rather than later. The economy is beginning to show signs of strain. Whether or not those strains are caused by Brexit, they will be blamed on Brexit because it is the biggest bogeyman around.
There won't be another election for years, politics is about power and being a minority govt is preferable to being the opposition. The tories messed up badly but they'll cling on somehow.
At the moment Boris seems to be the key to power. He is backing May and that makes May secure, for as long as he continues to do so. Bringing back Gove also seems to be his idea from his tweet yesterday.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
We need to see how it pans out for May - no harm in that. Obviously she can't lead us into another election. Boris needs to be more high profile and we need to see what shit is thrown at him, and more to the point to what extent it sticks.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
Can I file your assessment of Macron's prospects with your other predictions?
Probably - but I wasn't that far out on my other predictions, 2 seats and 777 votes would have seen me right on everything. I was however assuming that no matter how bad things were there would be a Tory majority of 50 and more realistically well over 100. I thought W&L would fall at about 90. If it fell at a less number then James had done well. If it didn't fall at over 90 then we had done badly. In fact it would have fallen between 0 and 10 - that was a fantastic result.
I was surprised by the Tory national campaign and with hindsight I should have seen that coming. The weird thing is the help from CCHQ here in Westmorland was excellent - how was the national campaign so bad.
You said "I don't expect the LibDems to get more than a handful of seats, and I don't expect Westmoreland & Lonsdale to be one of them."
A handful means a maximum of five.
Maybe he should have said two handfulls then he would only have been 20% out.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Not quite correct. A PM who dies in office leaves a short term vacancy.
What about a PM that dies but is still walking?
LOL!!
As I understand it if the PM dies then the Cabinet meets immediately and agrees a new interim PM. This would most likely be the Home Secretary, particularly if the PM had been killed by warfare or terrorism.
I could be wrong on this and indeed, the Constituency is full of holes anyway.
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Corbyn will only fight the next election as Labour leader if it is comparatively soon. If it isn't he'll stand down once changes to the leadership election rules have been made. Should that happen, Labour will go into the next election with a left-wing leader who does not have Corbyn's baggage. If the Tories have buggered up Brexit, Labour will then win a big majority.
Corbyn's charisma (!) outweighs his baggage. He'll stay on.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Except, in our system of parliamentary democracy, the means of implementing the result were written into Party manifestos at a General Election, and the same voters told them to shove it
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
Very few voted with Brexit in mind, its an irrelevance to the wider electorate. Only a few Remainers are still throwing tantrums about it.
A thought on the comments about Labour saying they won when they didn't- of course they are. The media are entirely focused on the smell of blood at number 10, labour have an opportunity once again to push a narrative and have it gain traction without much scrutiny. It's about seeding the idea of labour and Corbyn as winners on a wave of public enthusiasm. Why on earth wouldn't they push that whilst they can get away with it?
They can push it all they like, but they don't have the numbers in the Commons.
Indeed. However they just need to get the wind set in their sails and it will carry them home. One more push etc etc. The weakness of the Tories is only going to assist that.
Only if the Conservatives decide to give up.
I think you underestimate the public anger at the result and how unnecessary this all was. It's not about the Conservatives any more, it's about the electorates anger at them and willingness to listen to a populist left wing agenda. Labour are on the up with divisions forgotten, the tories are flailing about and will continue to do so even if May gets through this week.
13.6 m people still voted Conservative.
If you accepted PR, then that would be a legitimate response. But since you don't , harking about number of votes received is irrelevant as we only count number of seats won.
That is the electoral system you prefer. So can't have it both ways.
Oh they can and they will.Consetvatives are pragmatic and will do anything to gain and to hold onto power.
I feel a wee bit sorry for @shadsy trying to price a bingo book for the Queen's Speech ....
ER - "My lords and members of the House of Commons. My government will bring forward legislation of some sort at some time when Arlene has approved it. Er .. that's it. Other measures will also be brought before you.
I pray that the blessing of Almighty God and the spirit of the Reverend Ian Paisley may rest upon your counsel."
There won't be another election for years, politics is about power and being a minority govt is preferable to being the opposition. The tories messed up badly but they'll cling on somehow.
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Corbyn will only fight the next election as Labour leader if it is comparatively soon. If it isn't he'll stand down once changes to the leadership election rules have been made. Should that happen, Labour will go into the next election with a left-wing leader who does not have Corbyn's baggage. If the Tories have buggered up Brexit, Labour will then win a big majority.
Corbyn's charisma (!) outweighs his baggage. He'll stay on.
It's not a matter of charisma, it's a matter of age. He'll be 73 in 2022; 78 in 2027. If he were 15 years younger, then obviously he'd be going on and on.
If your going to claim that Labour still has internal issues, it needs to have more of a basis than this Chris Leslie thing, who is only one person.
John Woodcock, Chuka Ukkuna, Caroline Flint..........
Labour is far more united than the Tories now. For a start, everyone accepts that the leader is unassailable.
He is still sat at the Far Left of the political spectrum. Labour moderates just seem to have accepted we are all in this together now, Comrades. Here, have a Red Flag.
I remain skeptical that the voters have signed up en masse.
Two party politics is alive and well in the UK. And both main parties are doing just fine.
Labour is somewhat resurgent but is still led by a now unassailable Corbyn. Corbyn is still Corbyn and toxic to many. You'd think they had just won an election! I don't think 2022 (or sooner) is a walkover. They might well win next time but you can't count on it.
The Tories have just screwed up a GE. Actually, no, the PM has just screwed up a GE. The manifesto, the Miliband-lite nonsense, the hubris, the inarticulacy, the roboticism. It was her. And yet they still got 43%. The core Tory brand is in fine health. They just need to ditch the succubus at an opportune moment and rediscover some senisble policies.
Next GE completely open to play for. (But only for the Tories if she's gone well ahead of time).
Corbyn will only fight the next election as Labour leader if it is comparatively soon. If it isn't he'll stand down once changes to the leadership election rules have been made. Should that happen, Labour will go into the next election with a left-wing leader who does not have Corbyn's baggage. If the Tories have buggered up Brexit, Labour will then win a big majority.
Corbyn's charisma (!) outweighs his baggage. He'll stay on.
His initials are "JC" and he has just proved he can walk on water (politically speaking). Of course he will stay on, but like the original "JC" he should really keep an eye on his disciples
I notice that the amount we spend on overseas aid (£13bn) is a sum not dissimilar to the sum Labour costed scrapping student loans at (£13bn). Young people will conclude that the political class value Somalian girl bands more than they value graduates graduating without monster debts. It's not a good look.
Tories gone soft? Thought they were ruthless and yet May stays. Gone all soppy.
May is PM and got most votes and seats and she cannot be ousted now without leaving no PM at all as a Tory leadership contest will take months so May will stay until at least the autumn
There is never not a PM under the British Constituency.
Not quite correct. A PM who dies in office leaves a short term vacancy.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Except, in our system of parliamentary democracy, the means of implementing the result were written into Party manifestos at a General Election, and the same voters told them to shove it
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
Very few voted with Brexit in mind, its an irrelevance to the wider electorate. Only a few Remainers are still throwing tantrums about it.
Technical question: Let's say for the sake of argument that the UK has a government that's able to survive no-confidence votes, but it isn't able to get EU-related legislation through. What happens then? Presumably a lot of UK legislation is written on the premise that Britain is a member of the EU, but Article 50 has already been invoked, so Britain seems to be leaving unless somebody actively does something to stop it happening?
So if parliament is basically disfunctional, is it correct to say that the default outcome is car-crash Brexit, with added confusion?
Yes.
You've clearly highlighted one of the structural faultlines running through the Conservative Crackpot Coalition of Chaos.There are about 50/60 hardline BREXIT Con MP, a vast swath of pragmatic BREXITeers and about 20 remainiacs. Added to which there are the 13 SCON's who want as much access to the single market as possible. And then there is the DUP BREXIT and the open border with the south.
Messy Central.
There's another thing which is really important.
Jeremy Corbyn wants a hard Brexit.
But he wants to be Prime Minister more.
Even if he agrees 100% with Mrs May, he won't help her. Because if the Conservative government loses votes, and appears disunited, and potentially falls... then he'll be Prime Minister.
And that matters more to him than anything else.
Does he? I recall many assurances (some from Corbynites) pre GE that this was not the case, rather Jezza wanted to remake the party in his own campaigning, radical activist image. Though of course now he appears to have succeeded at that, perhaps he's raised his sights.
If your going to claim that Labour still has internal issues, it needs to have more of a basis than this Chris Leslie thing, who is only one person.
John Woodcock, Chuka Ukkuna, Caroline Flint..........
Labour is far more united than the Tories now. For a start, everyone accepts that the leader is unassailable.
He is still sat at the Far Left of the political spectrum. Labour moderates just seem to have accepted we are all in this together now, Comrades. Here, have a Red Flag.
I remain skeptical that the voters have signed up en masse.
Labour are united and ready to win next time - exactly like the Scottish Nationalists were in 2014...
Can't see another GE this year now - there may be a Con leadership contest though.
The problem for Remainers is that they are not united. They cannot decide whether to try to stop Brexit altogether (The Lib Dem/Blair/Heseltine position) or whether to to try to keep Britain in the Single Market, but outside the EU (The SNP/Anna Soubry/Yvette Cooper position).
Meanwhile the Brexiteers are very clear that nothing less than being outside of the Customs Union, as well as the Single Market, will do, and that anything else would be an anti-democratic travesty. Unity of purpose has a strength in this sort of situation, and of course now that Article 50 has been triggered it is the default option that will occur in March 2019, unless someone has the political clout to negotiate something else before then.
I was in Majorca when the shit hit the fan on election night.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
Nah. It's the British political system. As you may have heard Cons politician after Cons politician note on the radio: "the voters have put us in this position."
And indeed they have.
They are now about to understand what the consequences of that decision are.
You're right. The bastards. Perhaps politicians should stop asking them important questions when they're clearly ill equipped to give intelligent answers.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Except, in our system of parliamentary democracy, the means of implementing the result were written into Party manifestos at a General Election, and the same voters told them to shove it
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
Very few voted with Brexit in mind, its an irrelevance to the wider electorate. Only a few Remainers are still throwing tantrums about it.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the referendum result can simply be parked in the absence of a dramatic change in public opinion that has yet to take place. As Keiran says, it's possible but it remains a remote chance right now.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Except, in our system of parliamentary democracy, the means of implementing the result were written into Party manifestos at a General Election, and the same voters told them to shove it
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it. How difficult is that to understand? It's not exactly Monty Hall
Judging by reactions at work George Osborne is more unpopular than Corbyn and May combined. I don't see any path for him to return to politics, his bridges are well and truly burned.
Yep - his only handful of remaining supporters seem to be here, on PB.
He would be amusing as a character in House of cards or thick of it. Trolling May is admirable but doing it on the front page of the standard is patently putting self before party. If may is a £shop Gordon Osborne is a mandelson mini me.
Comments
2. See above ... more difficult.
3. Fail so far.
4. On the canvass ... ref count up to 7 ....
:-)
Kubica will be back, and will be fast - or so I predict.
So in 1985 I started work as a graduate on £8,500, which was 121% of the then average wage of £6,997 (https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/ukearncpi/result2.php).
I I had a personal allowance of £2,205 (http://taxhistory.co.uk/Income Tax Allowances.htm) and I paid 30% tax (http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/repository/incometaxrates_1974to1990.pdf) on the rest, plus 9% NI on everything over £35.50 a week (http://www.taxhistory.co.uk/National Insurance rates.htm).
The grand total of deductions was thus £2,288, which is 27%.
The equivalent salary today, 121% of the current average, would be £31,711. According to http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php , that salary would be £23,879.17 after student loan deductions, which is a deduction rate of...25%.
That includes a stoppage of £965 for the student loan repayment. I am not sure what the source of that figure is but it seems too low; it suggests a debt of about £15,000. Most owe more than that do they not? Repaid at that rate a graduate would be paying more in deductions than I was. £25,000 over 25 years at 4% would mean a graduate of today had the same percentage left after tax as I did.
So on the same economics as those of 30 years ago it seems to me that graduates are better off. Even those whose degrees don't get them a graduate job are not actually worse off are they? And best off of all are those in the non-graduate job without the degree.
I'm obviously missing something here.
No. I do set up hedges but I don't any more bet in-play.
Hard to say on Kubica. Even if his hand is fine, sometimes speed is lost (Schumacher) sometimes not (Raikkonen). He's been out for a while.
I just hope he doesn't accept a lift from the airport from Richard Hammond.
https://www.ft.com/content/f8b09872-4d2e-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43
Tone deaf misunderstanding of politics as some kind of board game.
At the point of greatest certainty, therefore, over our political system, it shouldn't have been a surprise that Lab would find itself resurgent. The only surprise should be that it was with Jezza at the helm rather than someone else.
Kubica will be quick - he's one of the smarter and more honest drivers, and wouldn't be attempting a comeback otherwise.
It's not as though Labour aren't demanding to have a role in determining Brexit policy...
OTOH, that would require some adroit politics on the part of May and her team........
Low skilled migrant workers do not create net wealth but the do reduce wage increases and increase property prices.
I don't think it is any exaggeration to say the result has caused a genuine political crisis. The news this morning that business confidence has plummeted will affect all of us, whichever side we are on.
Something needs to be done, and quick.
Now, I've always been non-tribal and advocated non-tribal politics. I think it would be very grown-up and reassuring if May arranged some sort of grand-assembly, where former PMs, former chancellors, party bigwigs from all sides etc, sit around a table and thrash out a way forward.
Politicians on all sides have a duty to serve the public. We need some extraordinary action.
I was quite surprised it was matched, to be honest.
Membership of the EU is not an end in itself, it is a means to an end. Barry Gardiner has made this distinction very clearly.
“What we’ve said is that we need those benefits [growth, jobs and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides], and whether they’re achieved through reformed membership of the the single market and the customs union, or through a new, bespoke trading arrangement, is actually secondary to achieving the benefits.”
Mrs May seems to have different ends in mind. Reducing or stopping immigration or "Taking back control".
Back in the day when I ran major change projects in industry, my motto was Agree the "What" before the "How". Agree on the objective before you discuss the various means of achieving it.
And indeed they have.
They are now about to understand what the consequences of that decision are.
If it ever did happen, "all around the hills the hosts of Mordor raged" would look like a vicar's tea party in comparison to some of the comments we'd get downthread.
Clive Lewis calls Jeremy Corbyn critic and fellow Labour MP Chris Leslie a "sad, lonely bitter man".
Perhaps it's Time to Rage Against the Machine. As the Nobel prize winner for Literature famously said
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.
You also don't appear to be aware of how student loan repayments work. They have nothing to do with the size of the debt or the interest rate but are determined by the borrower's gross salary (9% on everything earned over £21k)
Most students are currently leaving university with a debt of £40k with an interest rate of 3-6% (the exact rate again depends on your salary ranging between RPI+0 and RPI+3)
A handful means a maximum of five.
Yep - his only handful of remaining supporters seem to be here, on PB.
That is the electoral system you prefer. So can't have it both ways.
I don't see how as a matter of democracy the election result can simply be parked
Taking our £40k debt example, at a 6% interest rate this will accrue £2,400 a year. So just to break even, never mind reduce the principal a graduate would need to be earning close to £50k. Out of reach for all but the richest, who will pay back less than those in the middle.
It's an absurdly unfair system.
Jeremy Corbyn wants a hard Brexit.
But he wants to be Prime Minister more.
Even if he agrees 100% with Mrs May, he won't help her. Because if the Conservative government loses votes, and appears disunited, and potentially falls... then he'll be Prime Minister.
And that matters more to him than anything else.
£350m a week for the NHS...
I could be wrong on this and indeed, the Constituency is full of holes anyway.
ER - "My lords and members of the House of Commons. My government will bring forward legislation of some sort at some time when Arlene has approved it. Er .. that's it. Other measures will also be brought before you.
I pray that the blessing of Almighty God and the spirit of the Reverend Ian Paisley may rest upon your counsel."
And we all know how that ended!
Also as Osborne said, May is 'dead woman walking'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4592968/George-Osborne-says-Theresa-dead-woman-walking.html
I remain skeptical that the voters have signed up en masse.
There was also this from Airbus:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-airbus-idUSKBN19200C
This surprised me as I thought we had been informed on here that it could never, ever happen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/breaking-theresa-may-make-statement-downing-street-1115am1/
Can't see another GE this year now - there may be a Con leadership contest though.
Meanwhile the Brexiteers are very clear that nothing less than being outside of the Customs Union, as well as the Single Market, will do, and that anything else would be an anti-democratic travesty. Unity of purpose has a strength in this sort of situation, and of course now that Article 50 has been triggered it is the default option that will occur in March 2019, unless someone has the political clout to negotiate something else before then.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/874189906108715008
The choice is that stark and simple. Anything else is delusional.