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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,637
    Tom Newton Dunn: Queen's Speech could be delayed despite already in HM's diary for 19th. No10: "There will be an update from the Leader of the House shortly"
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005
    calum said:

    Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
    https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858

    Not for the first time, Jon Snow is factually incorrect. One Orange Lodge has demanded the unbanning of its parade, not the DUP.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    TOPPING said:

    This might explain the keenness for 2018:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050

    I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.

    Hold on until 2022, get a majority, ditch her. That would be the ideal. How achievable goodness knows.
    I think the Blues would love to hold on until 2022. but I think the chances of them letting May be the one to lead them into that election is close to 0. so I think the latest she would be replaced is 2020.
    Can someone explain the situation with boundary changes please? Will legislation automatically come into place in 2018 or will there be a vote. If a vote what odds do people think of changes being agreed with current make-up of parliament?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    Both Labour and Tories have accepted the referendum result and are commited to implementing it.

    And neither of them has an electoral mandate to do so.

    Remedial democracy, again.
    For someone who is a laughing stock due to lack of understanding, you are amazingly smug. Brings to mind 'Farage will not be in the debates" :lol:

    It's been voted for by the public, passed in the House of Commons, and committed to by both parties in their manifestos, I won't lose too much sleep.
    BUT WHAT IS IT?

    As you Leavers always tell us - it is up to the government to determine what that means.

    Would you be happy with us being in EEA/EFTA?
    As long as we leave I don't care. Must have said this 40 or 50 times now
    Excellent. So leaving and getting into the EEA/EFTA with FoM and ECJ subservience has you dancing in the streets. Good to know.
    EEA/EFTA has no ECJ subservience. Stop making unfounded claims.
    indirectly.
    Not even that. See various examples from Norway that I have mentioned before.
    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806

    Scott_P said:
    Mrs May will find her room for manoeuvre severely curtailed.....if it works, we'll see a return of Cabinet government, which would be a good thing - hopefully the prospect of a Labour Corbyn landslide in any immediate GE will concentrate minds in the Cabinet. I suspect Mr Green will be happy to tell Theresa when 'enough's enough', to borrow a phrase.....
    Sums it up entirely. The Tories have to be united (in public) as never before. Any squabbles are simply creating an opportunity for Corbyn. They have to consider what they'd prefer - Corbyn as PM or not. I'd prefer the not. With a rather baffling tendency on the part of the general public to vote for policies that to Tory minds are complete lunacy the risks of any dissent simply aren't worth taking. Even Soubry needs to bite her tongue.

    Any change of leadership should be considered only when the government is well established - say in three years time. That should give plenty of time for Labour to do a whole host of daft things.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    This might explain the keenness for 2018:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050

    I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.

    Agree. If TM remains PM she will have to do the job of PM. As time passes the memory of the election shock will recede and new, current issues will draw away attention.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Chipping Barnett was a fairly amazing result for Labour. It's worth noting that Open Britain's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th target scalps were all taken, with number 6 only just missed:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Omnium said:

    Sums it up entirely. The Tories have to be united (in public) as never before. Any squabbles are simply creating an opportunity for Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/874216545098096640
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Re best and worst results, for the Tories I'd say Gordon was a better result than Banff but perhaps the seat that most strikingly shows their detoxification and progress in Scotland, despite just missing out by a few votes is Lanarkshire and Hamilton East and share increases in nearby seats like East Kilbride, Leshmagow etc.
    In terms of vast overperfoamce in England compared to the overall, Sunderland Central, Ashfield etc were very strong results for them, failing to win Barrow and losing Plymouth were awful results as was the collapse of some of the ultra marginals to safe labour seats. Birmingham Edgbaston without having to face Gisela Stuart was a truly dire result.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930

    If May survives to the Autumn she'll be there until at least Spring 2019... A leadership contest half-way through Brexit negotiations is highly unlikely to say the least.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sean_F said:

    calum said:

    Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
    https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858

    Not for the first time, Jon Snow is factually incorrect. One Orange Lodge has demanded the unbanning of its parade, not the DUP.
    Snow is shockingly decrepit, he makes Dimbleby look sprightly.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Yorkcity said:

    Yep - it is a very good point. Labour hubris is all over the place at the moment. To win next time Labour have to convince current Tory voters to switch sides. Just assuming they will is not a good idea. That said, the economic crosswinds and Brexit generally are going to be very, very difficult for the Tories over the coming years.

    Can you point me to this extreme hubris you are witnessing?

    A refusal to accept that Labour lost the election. Labour did much better than expected. This miserable government and its leader were humiliated. But Labour came second in votes, vote share and seats. Too many are getting ahead of themselves. Hopefully, it is only the initial, natural reaction to something that no-one imagined might happen.

    When you think you are about to be killed off politically forever,then to find out the next morning not only that you have survived but are only 1 goal down and the home leg to come in your European fixture no wonder you are over the moon.

    I completely agree. But then you have to get back into training, prepare for the second leg and work out how you are going to score the two goals you need to win (if you don't concede!)
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Scott_P said:

    Omnium said:

    Sums it up entirely. The Tories have to be united (in public) as never before. Any squabbles are simply creating an opportunity for Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/874216545098096640
    And so it begins.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.

    Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.

    It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.
    If you can call losing 178 seats 'rather good' then you have a point.
    What about the economy? How did that perform once we got out of the ERM?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,005

    Chipping Barnett was a fairly amazing result for Labour. It's worth noting that Open Britain's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th target scalps were all taken, with number 6 only just missed:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

    It seems to be trending Labour (the party won most votes there in the 2014 local elections).

    I suspect that Jewish voters kept it (and the other Barnet seats) in the Conservative camp, this time round.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Scott_P said:


    It's interesting because I've seen media reports suggesting some of the Cabinet appointments show May is softening her stance on Brexit yet I've also seen other reports saying bringing Gove back is to try and shore up May's hard Brexit position.

    Basically the media is as clueless as ever...
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Brom said:

    TOPPING said:

    This might explain the keenness for 2018:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/874212081960194050

    I don't see it. Either Theresa May goes quite quickly or she has time to rebuild her position. She won't be easily ousted in a year's time once the new modus vivendi has been established.

    Hold on until 2022, get a majority, ditch her. That would be the ideal. How achievable goodness knows.
    I think the Blues would love to hold on until 2022. but I think the chances of them letting May be the one to lead them into that election is close to 0. so I think the latest she would be replaced is 2020.
    Can someone explain the situation with boundary changes please? Will legislation automatically come into place in 2018 or will there be a vote. If a vote what odds do people think of changes being agreed with current make-up of parliament?
    I thought that, following a new election, the boundary commissions would start again with the 2017 electoral roll as the starting point. But I might be wrong.

    I do know that there would have to be a vote, and PBs Unionist correspondent from Northern Ireland assures us that there is no chance of the DUP voting for the current proposed set of boundaries, so one way or another they are dead.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Gin, her potential successors might welcome her taking the bullet for whatever ructions departure causes, leaving them less tarnished.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    llef said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Best & Worst results for each party ?

    Tories: Banff / High Peak
    Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
    Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
    SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East

    Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!
    Losing Ceredigion? No Liberal seat in Wales for over 100 years?
    I never thought I'd say this but the party I feel most confident about making electoral progress at the next GE is the LibDems. They had a poor campaign and a poor leader. Lost 50% of their voters from 2015 (if I read that Ashcroft post-GE poll correctly) but still got 50% more seats and lost under 10% votes in total.

    Next time, I expect a better leader, better campaign and a much more effective scrutiny of what Labour are offering. instead of fighting 20 by-elections and winning 12 on an 8% share, I can see them winning 20 from 30 on a 12% share.

    Small steps but they are the only party that I think will definitely get more seats next time.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454
    edited June 2017


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,701

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
    That's a great idea.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sean_F said:

    calum said:

    Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
    https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858

    Not for the first time, Jon Snow is factually incorrect. One Orange Lodge has demanded the unbanning of its parade, not the DUP.
    Snow is shockingly decrepit, he makes Dimbleby look sprightly.
    No wonder the viewing figures for his partisan "news" show are so low.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. 64, not sure Farron's going anyway, is he?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,176

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
    Take your one star media performer and turn her into the lightning rod for all the disaffection heading your way? That reeks of desperation.
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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.

    Well put. The UK is now a wounded animal much less able to defend itself against the EU wolves. The form of Brexit will be decided in Berlin and presented a single "take it or leave it" option in Brussels.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,133

    Some Labour supporters on here are being needlessly gloomy - this is Black Wednesday territory for the Tories. Theresa's reputation has been blown to pieces and with it the credibility of the many Tories who strapped themselves to the brand - 'Mummy' for crying out loud! As for Brexit: it now has the feel of disaster management about it. Jezza will win the next election through natural political drift if nothing else, but it will probably be by a landslide as the public desert the Tories in droves. What a bugger's muddle.

    Erm, didn't Black Wednesday turn out to be rather good for the Tories.

    It certainly was for the economy as we pulled out of the ERM.
    Better for the economy than for the Tories. (Although, as with all these things, sorting out cause and effect is difficult. The period from 1992 to 2000 was a period of rapid economic growth across the developed world. And that can't all be due to White Wednesday.)
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    edited June 2017
    Mortimer is programmed by the same YTS guy as the Maybot.

    So Mortimer, how's the weather?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what are your goals for this parliament?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what's the meaning of life?

    "You can't remember your password."
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    The other major problem with a DUP alliance aside from their appalling views on social matters is Arlene Foster. However they sell it, a woman who is not in parliament and nobody voted for holds balance of power. To a lesser extent as she's in the same party, Ruth's influence might become resented.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,701
    Sean_F said:

    calum said:

    Ruth needs to bring TM to her senses !
    https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/874206915215097858

    Not for the first time, Jon Snow is factually incorrect. One Orange Lodge has demanded the unbanning of its parade, not the DUP.
    I don't know how he gets away with it.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
    I don't agree with her on some matters - the EU being the main one of course - but I do think she has proven herself a star when dealing with the undoubtedly charismatic Sturgeon in an environment where there has been long term widespread hostility to the Tories. The results speak for themselves.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806

    Mortimer is programmed by the same YTS guy as the Maybot.

    So Mortimer, how's the weather?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what are your goals for this parliament?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what's the meaning of life?"

    "You can't remember your password."

    Well 1/3 isn't too bad. He nailed the last one.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    On that note, I'm tempted by Jo Swinson at 3.5 to be next Lib Dem leader.

    I think Cable's past it, and whilst I rate Lamb, he lost last time.

    Thoughts?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    Scott_P said:
    Remind me Nicola - how many seats did that position lose you?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If the QS is delayed it's all over, she's gone in the morning.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Omnium said:

    Mortimer is programmed by the same YTS guy as the Maybot.

    So Mortimer, how's the weather?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what are your goals for this parliament?

    "You can't remember your password."

    So Mortimer, what's the meaning of life?"

    "You can't remember your password."

    Well 1/3 isn't too bad. He nailed the last one.
    True. I had always wondered.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
    Take your one star media performer and turn her into the lightning rod for all the disaffection heading your way? That reeks of desperation.
    Good point - look how quickly Nikkla's star has waned despite the endless selfies.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Arlene Foster looks like Ramsay Bolton from GoT.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?

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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    On the boundaries it looks to my inexpert eyes as though Labour may have been successful in registering new electors in the cities.

    Streatham, turnout 55,795, 70.9%, electorate 78,695
    North East Hampshire, turnout 57,627, 76.3%, electorate 75,527

    So perhaps new boundaries on the current electoral roll wouldn't necessarily result in a benefit to the Tories.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Meeks, indeed.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Remind me Nicola - how many seats did that position lose you?
    I fear Davidson has been flattered by her opposition. Sturgeon is arguably worse than May.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The only way she survives this is getting cross party Brexit and running a zombie government until we are out.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Word is that the Queen's Speech is delayed.

    Uh-oh...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

    Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031
    edited June 2017
    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.
    So changing your tune and admitting you were wrong - good, that is a start at least.

    Supranational court B (the EFTA court) is strictly limited in the areas over which in can pass judgement (the specific areas of the Single Market covered by the EEEA agreement) and it cannot expand its own scope or extent. In that way it is like many other international courts and adjudicators which we are party to. I have no problem with that.

    The ECJ has a massively wider remit covering almost every aspect of life within the EU. It can and does expand its scope and influence as it sees fit and has a role which is not simply to adjudicate but to increase the power and influence of the EU over the member states.

    There is simply no comparison between the two no matter how much Eurofanatics like yourself might try to claim one.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Mr. 64, not sure Farron's going anyway, is he?

    No I'm not sure either. but I think they'll still have a better leader next time even if it's still him.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,176

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?
    Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

    If she's doing it without her majesty's approval, HMQ may well send for him. You don't just tell the Queen she's not turning up on Monday.
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    For anyone interested in a non-MSM view from a longtime Scottish journalist:
    http://www.scottishreview.net/KennethRoyspecial.html
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.

    The Labour social media operation did not really exist. It was totally ad hoc. That is what made it so powerful. The Tories are much better advised to find some young folk who can get the ball rolling and leave them to it.

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    GIN1138 said:

    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

    I guess so... although that seems uplikely to happen to..

    New elections anyone?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Eagles' mate is having a bad GE. Schadenfreude may be enjoyable, but it marks him out as a bad loser. Yes, she sacked you, but don't behave like a teenager. As well as having a face that needs a good smack, Osbourne of the fifth remove isn't a good look. (What is the fifth remove anyway).

    If he needs another job, I've got a wall that needs papering.

    BTW, if Corbyn becomes PM, I will accept the result. Even if he loses some support three months later, I won't be demanding a new election, or supporting a legal challenge against him because I didn't like the result.

    Another factor that helped him is the Trump/ Brexit feeling that the Establishment only allow us a narrow range of choices. Mainstream he is not, it's just a pity that he's barmy.

    Oops! There's me virtue-signalling again. I'll do a hundred lines if it doesn't breach my human rights.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    I wonder if now is a good time to bet on May still being Tory leader at the next election.

    As much as people are talking like any replacement for her would be an improvement in electoral terms, this isn't at all obvious to me. Do people really think Hammond or Rudd or Gove would have more popular appeal?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ... people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK

    I agree with 95% of that. The 5% of disagreement is that in one respect we do have a choice - accept what we are GIVEN or walk away. That is our only choice and as choices go, it really is a rubbish one.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,328

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: PM has invited @RuthDavidsonMSP to attend Political Cabinet today. Highlights her ever greater role as a powerbroker.

    Good.

    My suggestion: the party should appoint Ruth Davidson to a special role where she has particular responsibility for re-engaging with young voters in the whole of Great Britain, especially using social media. I think she's the one senior figure who would get a good hearing.
    Yes, she can speak their language of beat combos, reefers and discotheques.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,733

    On that note, I'm tempted by Jo Swinson at 3.5 to be next Lib Dem leader.

    I think Cable's past it, and whilst I rate Lamb, he lost last time.

    Thoughts?

    Money tied up for how long? There's no election planned.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Best & Worst results for each party ?

    Tories: Banff / High Peak
    Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
    Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
    SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East

    Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!
    Worst result has to be one that lost to the Tories and gave them an extra seat so it has to be Richmond Park or St Ives.

    I'd say Richmond Park because it gave Zac a seat and it was an unnecessary loss. The Labour vote went up from 1,500 in the by election to 5,773 last Thursday. Just 1% of them voting tactically would have reduced the Tory seats by a critical one. I hope Labour voters have learned a lesson.

    Extract from Sarah Olney's statement:

    I wish Mr Goldsmith well in his resumed role as our MP, but I know I am not the only local resident who feels some disquiet at the overall result and its implications for the country. Many voters will have backed Mr Goldsmith because of the promise of "strong and stable leadership in the national interest" and because Mrs May was the most credible person to lead Britain into the Brexit negotiations. As a result of this unnecessary election, the country is now in disarray, and our hand in the fast-approaching negotiations has been weakened. Voters are entitled to feel cheated.

    The proposed partnership with the DUP will also cause some concern . I hope that the partnership will not include any concessions on gay rights, action on climate change or the right to access abortions. But the real concern is for the Good Friday Agreement, under which the British Government is supposed to remain neutral. The collapse of the power-sharing agreement earlier this year was a setback for the province, especially in the light of the threat that Brexit represents to the 'soft' border, and a Government breach of the Agreement will further undermine efforts to restore stability to Northern Ireland.

    But my greatest concern is for what the election result means for local people. Mr Goldsmith now has a very slim majority, in a Parliament that is extremely vulnerable to being dissolved. Will Mr Goldsmith stand up for local people, against the Government, as he promised? When the National Policy Statement on aviation comes before the Commons later this year, can Mr Goldsmith risk voting against the Government, knowing that any failure to get legislation passed might trigger a new General Election? Will he challenge them to produce the extra funding that our schools and hospitals need? Time will tell, and Mr Goldsmith can be sure that the Liberal Democrats will be watching closely.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2017

    Word is that the Queen's Speech is delayed.

    Uh-oh...

    After Trump's postponement, that's another canary off its perch. The end is near for May.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?
    Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.

    The court is the court and is independent. The only way we walk all over it is to get a majority of the judges sitting on the bench. And that would require other countries to agree. And the judges would still be largely interpreting law made in Europe, not in the UK.

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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017

    On that note, I'm tempted by Jo Swinson at 3.5 to be next Lib Dem leader.

    I think Cable's past it, and whilst I rate Lamb, he lost last time.

    Thoughts?

    Mr Dancer, I am told that a good way to pick Stocks and Shares is to sellotape the FTSE100 page from the FT to the back of a door and throw darts at it. Whatever stock a dart hits you buy. Apparently this method gets as good a return as most Fund Managers.

    What about throwing darts at pictures of the contenders? It may work and it may even be theraputic!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?
    Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.
    No it is because the remit of the EFTA court is strictly limited and cannot be changed as it is bound by treaty. The same does not apply to the ECJ.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,328
    Jonathan said:

    Arlene Foster looks like Ramsay Bolton from GoT.

    'My dogs are desperate to meet you. I haven't fed them for seven days. They're ravenous! I wonder which parts they'll try first....'
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Gogol's The Gove-rnment Inspector
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    On that sort of note, there's a market on Betfair Exchange for PM after election, which hasn't been settled yet. I'd suggest reading the rules carefully, but May has a lay value of 1.14. If the Queen's speech has been delayed, that must be tempting, assuming the rules fit.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    The Labour social media operation did not really exist. It was totally ad hoc. That is what made it so powerful. The Tories are much better advised to find some young folk who can get the ball rolling and leave them to it.

    As far as I can tell, the official Labour social-media operation wasn't anything special, but it does sound as though Momentum were working very effectively in the background. No doubt this will be the subject of much study over the next few months.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930

    GIN1138 said:

    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

    I guess so... although that seems uplikely to happen to..

    New elections anyone?
    Yep. She can send for Jezza but he clearly doesn't have the numbers to get a QS through either, so then what happens?

    New elections the only possibility.

    We could be in a new election campaign by the end of June! :open_mouth:
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?

    ECJ rulings are not bound by case law. They are bound by interpretation of the treaties.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,637
    Mortimer said:

    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

    Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.
    At least the posh boys could get a Queen's speech through Parliament.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,733
    daodao said:

    The most extraordinary thing about many of the comments on Brexit both here and in the media, and by some politicians, is that people are STILL talking as though the form of Brexit is something which we can unilaterally decide here in the UK. That is utterly delusional.

    Well put. The UK is now a wounded animal much less able to defend itself against the EU wolves. The form of Brexit will be decided in Berlin and presented a single "take it or leave it" option in Brussels.

    You're both assuming that the EU want to punish us for leaving. Isn't it more likely that they will want to get a deal which is good enough for both sides whilst not encouraging others to also leave.
    I don't think that they would cut off their nose to spite their face.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The other major problem with a DUP alliance aside from their appalling views on social matters is Arlene Foster. However they sell it, a woman who is not in parliament and nobody voted for holds balance of power. To a lesser extent as she's in the same party, Ruth's influence might become resented.

    And might be toppled by Cash for Ash.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,010
    edited June 2017
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

    May too short here at 1.14 I think

    Cover Corbyn.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    llef said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Best & Worst results for each party ?

    Tories: Banff / High Peak
    Labour: Canterbury / Mansfield
    Lib Dem: Norfolk North / Hallam
    SNP: Perth & North Perthshire / Glasgow North East

    Worst LD result is surely Fife NE!
    Losing Ceredigion? No Liberal seat in Wales for over 100 years?
    I never thought I'd say this but the party I feel most confident about making electoral progress at the next GE is the LibDems. They had a poor campaign and a poor leader. Lost 50% of their voters from 2015 (if I read that Ashcroft post-GE poll correctly) but still got 50% more seats and lost under 10% votes in total.

    Next time, I expect a better leader, better campaign and a much more effective scrutiny of what Labour are offering. instead of fighting 20 by-elections and winning 12 on an 8% share, I can see them winning 20 from 30 on a 12% share.

    Small steps but they are the only party that I think will definitely get more seats next time.
    I think that the Lib Dems are still in a precarious position. They lost five of the nine seats they held at dissolution and could easily have lost a sixth. If they lose two-thirds of the seats they currently hold at the next GE they are not guaranteed to make gains to offset those losses.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mrs C, when I was a schoolboy a friend of mine and I used to regularly pin a photo of a celebrity to a dartboard and get points for hitting various parts.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.

    This seems to be more to the point. How is the UK being obliged to follow EFTA Court determined case law more acceptable than being obliged to follow CJEU determined case law?
    Presumably because we have 5 times the population of the existing EFTA countries and the assumption is that we could walk all over them.

    The court is the court and is independent. The only way we walk all over it is to get a majority of the judges sitting on the bench. And that would require other countries to agree. And the judges would still be largely interpreting law made in Europe, not in the UK.

    As I say on a strictly limited set of trade points which cannot be expanded. The difference with the ECJ is stark.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

    I guess so... although that seems uplikely to happen to..

    New elections anyone?
    Yep. She can send for Jezza but he clearly doesn't have the numbers to get a QS through either, so then what happens?

    New elections the only possibility.

    We could be in a new election campaign by the end of June! :open_mouth:
    Can the Opposition force a vote on No Confidence? They should do it before DUP deal is sewn up if they want a new GE.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

    Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.
    At least the posh boys could get a Queen's speech through Parliament.
    :)
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited June 2017
    Must be a fun conversation with the palace..

    "One does not appreciate having to delay One's speech, Prime Minster..."
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,031

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469

    Mortimer said:

    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

    Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.
    At least the posh boys could get a Queen's speech through Parliament.
    The last three months has not been a very good advert for the idea of Grammar schools.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    "Arlene Foster looks like Ramsay Bolton from GoT"

    She does a little. And in Scotland, we have Jimmy Krankie and Deputy Dawg.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited June 2017
    Given confidence is at a very low ebb, if they have to delay Queen's Speech it's because something is seriously wrong. It must be a last resort.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If May has to postpone the Queens Speech (because she hasn't got the numbers to get it through) will HMQ be compelled to send for Jezza to see what he can do?

    I guess so... although that seems uplikely to happen to..

    New elections anyone?
    Yep. She can send for Jezza but he clearly doesn't have the numbers to get a QS through either, so then what happens?

    New elections the only possibility.

    We could be in a new election campaign by the end of June! :open_mouth:
    Can the Opposition force a vote on No Confidence? They should do it before DUP deal is sewn up if they want a new GE.
    Parliament won't be sitting if no deal is sewn up, she can't guarantee passing a QS without it, hence trying to delay. No no confidence vote is possible until parliament meets and then the first vote is QS which is a de facto vote of confidence.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,454

    TOPPING said:


    The EEA agreement includes EU legislation. Who governs EU legislation?

    No. All interpretation of the EEA Agreement for EFTA members is made by the EFTA Court. They do not have to accept ECJ rulings in their decision making. The ECJ has no power to enforce their rulings upon EFTA members.
    Supranational Court A determining our destiny = bad
    Supranational Court B determining our destiny = good

    Good luck with that. If you are still on the head of the pin by then, that is.
    So changing your tune and admitting you were wrong - good, that is a start at least.

    Supranational court B (the EFTA court) is strictly limited in the areas over which in can pass judgement (the specific areas of the Single Market covered by the EEEA agreement) and it cannot expand its own scope or extent. In that way it is like many other international courts and adjudicators which we are party to. I have no problem with that.

    The ECJ has a massively wider remit covering almost every aspect of life within the EU. It can and does expand its scope and influence as it sees fit and has a role which is not simply to adjudicate but to increase the power and influence of the EU over the member states.

    There is simply no comparison between the two no matter how much Eurofanatics like yourself might try to claim one.
    "There is simply no comparison between the two."

    It is nearly a year since I worried about the nuances of which supranational court that we are subservient to does what and the fact that you are trying to make a distinction that no one else in the UK will make shows how desperate you are. Comically so.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    This afternoon, I believe.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    Yes. I can smell the burning straw from EC2.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Jonathan, indeed. Could be backbench dissent over DUP deal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,637

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    The 1922 have already met. I suspect this is one of their red lines.

    I think we've just become one step closer to Corbyn presenting a Queen's speech.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    edited June 2017

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    Yes, shes facing 1922 this evening - I wonder whether that will be the end for Theresa?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    Yes. I can smell the burning straw from EC2.
    Its the TOAST
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    How long, legally, could the government delay a Queen's speech?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930

    Presumably the possible delay to the Queen's Speech is caused by the DUP saying 'Oh, and just one more thing before we sign up...', multiple times.

    Does the 1922 sit tonight?
    The 1922 have already met. I suspect this is one of their red lines.

    I think we've just become one step closer to Corbyn presenting a Queen's speech.
    Corbyn doesn't have the numbers to present a QS either.

    We have come a step closer to new elections though...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,637

    Mortimer said:

    The Queen's Speech may be postponed, it's being reported.

    That sounds to me as though TMay could be becoming TMaynot fairly shortly.

    Uh oh. That really doesn't sound good.
    At least the posh boys could get a Queen's speech through Parliament.
    The last three months has not been a very good advert for the idea of Grammar schools.
    Indeed. One positive from this calamity is there will be no more new grammar schools.

    There just isn't a majority in the House for it.
This discussion has been closed.