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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since the E.U. referendum it is possible we won’t leave the E.U. after all
It might not be the most likely outcome. But the prospect of a Labour government has put Brexit back on the table writes Keiran Pedley.
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Remainers like myself tend to assume Leave voters will change there mind in the light of fresh evidence. It's far more likely they'll self justify by saying ' Oh Brexit was sold out by X. We never really tried it " rather than think they were wrong.
I have no doubts that both Remain and Brexit voters are now very worried about the way forward for the UK as we now try to negociate our exit from the EU in light of the GE result. And not least because the UK GE result will now see the EU regarding the UK as being in a far weaker position at the negociating table. A point that all parties on both side of the argument should do well to remember, never a good look to be siding with the EU against UKplc what ever your views on Brexit.
Neither major party has any desire to go to the country again on this, there's no political upside for either one. All all truth, they've accepted it and moves on to the details.
An interesting piece Mr Pedley, cheers. – Never say never, but in all likelihood the Brexit process will continue into the negotiation phase and beyond, irrespective of who leads the Tories. There may be gov’t concession in the form of more cross-party involvement at commission level etc which should be welcomed in my opinion, but the meat and potatoes of the process remains the same. If there is to be a change of government however before the deal is completed, then all bets are off, the EU has a habit of discarding hard and fast rules when expedient to do so. As for the longevity of the Gov’t who can say, the coalition was written off every month of its 5 year term, what can I add, we live in interesting times.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/12/uk-household-spending-falls-for-first-time-since-2013?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Actually, I think Brexit is more likely to be watered down by the Tories rather than Labour.
She pointed out to Mr Osborne that his newspaper had been ‘pure poison against Theresa May day after day – and look at the result you’ve got. I know she sacked you, but why do you hate her so much? 'She and Philip Hammond are following your economic plan down to the last minute. They are Osbornites! So why do you hate them so much?’ Osborne, almost with a bull-terrier’s growl: ‘I don’t hate them.’
Toynbee, laughing: ‘You’re dripping personal bile!’
Toby Young quietly suggested that poor George had become ‘the Hon Member for Schadenfreude Central from the county of Embitteredshire’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4594372/Quentin-Letts-sees-George-Osborne-plunge-knife-in.html
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/874131542829924353
1. If the May-led government survives - a watered down version of Brexit will exist - with some guarantees about Customs Union.
2. If the May govt falls and Jezza gets into number 10 with an overall majority - there will be NORWAY-STYLE deal.
3. If the May Govt falls and Jezza gets in with the support of the LDs/SNP - there will be a NORWAY-STYLE deal BUT with a referendum (or as I prefer a Preferendum - offering, Deal, No Deal or Swap (Remain in the EU).
I think even Soubry and co realise that. She repeated yesterday again and again that we are still leaving.
One way would be to reach out to other parties, specifically the Labour party. Perhaps Keir Starmer should be invited to join the negotiating team. Whether Corbyn would allow him to accept or not is unclear and it is really not May's style. A new leader might find this an easier path to take.
For me, this question and all others are tied up with the future of May. Is she really going to hang on? So far the signs are that she wants to. What does the party want? That is less clear. Until it is clear it is difficult to see a path forward at all, let alone with Brexit.
Laters. Work to do.
The issue is the mechanics of implementing Brexit. You really think democracy is going to be well served by those same elected politicians saying "sorry, it is too difficult to do..."?
Those who wanted to turn their back on Brexit just got 12 seats.
The opinion polls have already swung Labour's way - all they need to do is let the government keep on screwing up and then win at the GE on a platform of competence and fairness.
If they involve themselves in Brexit, then they have a chance of sharing some of the blame when economic pain comes along.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/873866245250179072
On this one, clearly one of the things that animates Corbyn's supporter base the most is Brexit. However, if I were him, I'd be very careful about taking this election result as a mandate to renege.
It would validate everything Theresa May and the Conservatives said during the campaign, against the reassurances the Labour Party gave.
If we had a Grand coalition, you might have a point, but that's not how our Parliamentary system works
Remedial democracy for Brexiteers
The manifestos of parties that don't command a majority (of seats) are not enacted.
I think Carlotta's idea that voters will blame foreigners for our problems is frankly bonkers! If ever there was a moment when our government couldn't pass the blame to foreigners this is it! Even Quentin Letts in his desperation to find a fall guy that isn't Theresa May and her government is pointing his finger at Osborne!
Of course, we know the answer. It's a move by Remainers to make leaving the EU look so utterly pointless that they can foster a groundswell of opinion to seek to re-join again, in time, by pointing this out.
If we must have a soft Brexit, I would take EEA-EFTA. In the longer-term, once all our trade deals have been recalibrated, we can take a view on whether that still works for us.
Besides which I'd expect that given the UK's size, experience and influence we would still have a little bit of pre-input into EEA/single market rules (far more so than Norway) simply because of the real-politik of it.
The commentariat is awash with people claiming simultaneously that
1. People voted anything but Tory to avoid hard brexit
2. Labour supports hard brexit
Does leaving the single market energise Corbyn's base, or piss off the remainers who voted against Tory brexit?
Its not do we leave, but how we leave. And thats always been the question. As a Labour Leave voter the best solution to the UK is also the insurance solution - regain our membership of EFTA. We leave the EU - the specific thing people voted for - but retain our EEA membership thus avoiding catastrophic no deal economic ruin. And a rejuvenated EFTA with us as a member will have some decent negotiating power with the EU. And whats more - as a non-Eurozone EU member leaving the EU and joining EFTA was inevitable. For years a twin track or two speed Europe was talked about. The Euro needs a fiscal union which we would not be part, so a leave vote allows us to define the relationship in our own terms rather than being bundled in to the other non-Eurozone nations as they exit.
Some people won't like keeping freedom of movement. To which the question must be asked - do you want their job? Do you want to look after our elderly in the care home or go pick fruit or work in that factory doing "menial" labour? If you don't then we need migrant Labour. Thats why they came in the forst place, to do the jobs our own people chose not to do. Its all very well the people of Boston whining about bloody foreigners, but unless you're willing to pick fruit yourselves you need them.
@BBCNormanS: Labour not closing door on single market. "Reformed membership" an option says Barry Gardiner @BBCr4today
I am not saying that we will or should do this, but if we do want to change our minds it seems the mechanism is blissfully easy.
I really think May should go as the price of her incompetence and failure but it may be that it is just too difficult at the moment. That would be very good news for Labour, very good indeed.
Soft Brexit solves the conundrum. It would satisfy many, and would make both complete Brexit, or rejoining more viable. In practice it would need to happen at least as a transition deal as there is no way that we will be ready for a total Brexit in 20 moths time.
Turkey has been in the application process since for decades, as have the scandanavians in joining the EZ. It is perfectly possible for a temporary state to exist a very long time.
Not hard or soft Brexit so much as Schrodingers Brexit. The key question really is not what we want, but whether the EU permits it.
I very much doubt it would be easy. The price for seeking to withdraw such a notice is likely to be revisiting such matters as the UK rebate and possibly some of our opt outs. I would fear for any government which put such a proposal to the British people.
https://twitter.com/isaby/status/874152079455117312
I'm a great believer in the insightfulness of vox pops (it told me in the first week of the Referendum campaign that Remain could be in trouble) and this told me that ordinary Leavers are not as convinced by their decision as the Remainers and if things continue to go pear shaped are likely to turn on those who didn't explain it properly.
Given the real challenges facing the country, NHS, care costs, the next recession, education which is clearly failing, terrorism etc etc what do we do. Ignore those issues and argue about the f****** EU. Those left in twenty years will look back and say what a bunch of t******
I've just been talking to my stepson whilst taking him to the airport.. If he is anything to go by, that brexit claim is a load of nonsense. And he has a point. The Tories looked after the old with the triple lock, but the young have been given little or nothing in the last 10 yrs. That's why they were able to be motivated to vote in such huge numbers. That needs to be addressed or the Tories will lose heavily,
F1: race was very exciting but a huge amount happened so doing the write-up might take me a little while. Surprised and delighted that the Raikkonen hedge was matched, so the hedged result was very slightly negative (due to cunningly getting my Vettel bet stake wrong I actually finished ahead). Without that, it was just over two stakes down.
The EU treaties are drafted to refer to Vienna (so Andrew Duff explains) so as to allow them to remain manageable in the context of international convention, otherwise you would have had to insert many clauses from Vienna into the EU treaties themselves for them to be watertight.
Now it is true that many voted Labour to kill Brexit - irrational, but no one voted Labour for its rationalism.
Mrs May should do what with hindsight she should have kept on doing, proceed with her notional majority and wait to be voted down.
What we need is leadership to tell people that the promised land doesn't exist, and it can only come from former Leavers like Johnson and Gove.
BBC gossip column has some cracking headlines:
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff would not be surprised if world champion Nico Rosberg makes a Formula 1 comeback with Ferrari. (Autosport)
Robert Kubica has confirmed he wants to attempt a full F1 comeback six years after a horrific rallying accident in Italy. (Sky Sports)
On-topic: if we leave the EU, there will be ructions. If we stay in the EU, there will be ructions.
A large chunk of his voters would have more nuanced views.
However, our situation is as nothing compared to the horror story which is emerging across the Channel. 24 months and Macron will be more reviled than any of his predecessors.
The expectation must be that leaving the single market is in the Queen's Speech, and 500 MPs will vote for it, right?
Anyone laying odds?
What's more it's making the Tories who are now the exclusive carriers of the Brexit banner look like crackpot obsessives
Now, in all likelihood, the UK will be able to replicate each of these. (And even add some more.) But it won't happen on day one. New treaties require negotiations, and approval by parliaments and the like. It will probably take a decade to fully replace the existing arrangements that we leave behind. Staying in the customs union for - say - two year gives Liam Fox and his team to actually get some deals done. Will all of them be replaced (Cote d'Ivoire, anyone)? Not in the two year window, no. But the most important of them could be.
The Brexiteers have managed to turn the Tory party into a one issue, incompetent, poorly led version of Ukip over the last year or so.
Particularly disturbing considering the alternative.
If they had voted in larger numbers in the Referendum, as they did last Thursday, it is likely that the result may well have swung the other way.
Now they have got themselves registered to vote in larger numbers, found their way to the polling stations and have discovered that their votes CAN change things, I would expect the youth to be a lot more influential in stopping Brexit if we were to ever be in the situation where we had another vote on the subject.
I'm pleased for you - only explanation I can think of is that someone foolishly have that Vettel wasn't going to stop again, and that Raikkonen's second set of tyres would give him the advantage.
I was impressed by both Hamilton and Vettel.
Great news about Kubica; indifferent towards the Rosberg speculation.
It is more likely that we end up with a different approach to Brexit. The point about the election is that Brexit is that it turns out that it is one issue of many for people, it is not the only issue.
Calling the referendum without any preparatory work on what a leave vote would mean was an absolute, profound, disaster. Party before country. Cameron and May are going to go down as the worst prime ministers in history.
And since Thursday people have been falling over themselves to congratulate the younger among us for doing their democratic duty; a five-minute detour to the polling station given the same weight as going over the top at Ypres. Young people posted selfies taken after the event and wore stickers saying “I voted!” Should they get lollipops too?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/let-s-stop-treating-the-young-as-political-sages-fqv5b3cqg
With the first hat - yes, it'd in practice by perfectly feasible to stay on if talks produce what both sides recognise is no satisfactory outcome. Ultimately the EU is driven by political consensus, and where there's a will there's a way - stopping the clock indefinitely, legal interpretation, whatever. I think the EU would see it as a return to sanity and would be happy to oblige, on condition that we promised not to flounce out again in the next 10 years.
But from the Labour viewpoint I see no big upsides and lots of downsides in leading on this at the moment. Corbyn's view is essentially that membership per se is not the key issue, what matters is the terms of our future relationship: the default is to assume we're leaving, but if so then we need to have customs-free access and protection of labour and environmental rights as well as protection for citizens on both sides. Labour will press on these issues and denounce the government if it slips on them. As for free movement, Corbyn can best be described as intensely relaxed, but persuaded by colleagues that something must be done to appease public concern on unrestricted movement - any mild restrictions would be fine.
If public opinion shifted decisively against leaving or Labour took over Government responsibility, Labour could fairly easily segue into a "This isn't going to work out, let's stay" position. But unless actually in Government, I don't expect us to be leading the charge.
Ummm
@IanDunt: Davis not budging on hard Brexit. Notable that he uses McDonnell demand to leave single market as justification.
@IanDunt: As before, Corbyn leadership position helps the right of the Tory party delivery on their extreme agenda.
' The Government has “betrayed a generation of students” after it “quietly put out” a report on one of the busiest days in UK politics in which it has backtracked on a promise it made to students in 2012 regarding their loans.
Students in England who started university in or after 2012 repay nine per cent of everything they earn above £21,000 (pre-tax salary) once they graduate. Yet, now, after launching a consultation, the team at MoneySavingExpert.com said the Conservatives have secretly put its conclusions out during the Autumn Statement, backtracking on this and, effectively, hiking costs retrospectively, despite an overwhelming 95 per cent of the consultaion’s respondents opposing the freeze.
The freeze in the threshold means graduates will now repay more of their cash each month towards the loans and - as many students won’t repay the full amount borrowed within the 30 years before the debt is wiped - also means they will pay more overall as well.
The freezing of the threshold means over two million graduates will end up paying £306 more each year by 2020/21 than they would have done without the change.
MoneySavingExpert.com said, “disgracefully,” the move was not announced by George Osborne in today's speech and, instead, it was “buried on page 126 of the Autumn Statement.” '
http://www.independent.co.uk/student/news/spending-review-2015-government-betrays-a-generation-of-students-by-secretly-backtracking-on-a-2012-a6748801.html
I don't think the Rosberg speculation will come off. Vettel's not going to want a rival and Ferrari generally have a number one driver approach.
Kubica coming back, if he has the pace, would be great.