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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cyan said:

    Floater said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    Where we are now with Russia certainly has the potential to get cooler even if we're not at Cold War temperatures yet. Also once we disarm (nuclear-wise), that's us done, effectively for ever. That gives North Korea or any other state prepared to make the nuclear investment a bigger stick than we have. It's all in the word "deterrent" although I accept that North Korea may be an outrider in that respect.
    Why do we think North Korea and Israel are not attacked?

    Ukraine gave their nukes up..........
    So did South Africa. So did Kazakhstan. If North Korea were attacked, it could obliterate nearby Seoul with conventional weapons.
    Yep - that's a form of deterrence too
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Barnesian said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    And the person who pressed the button against us safe in a deep bunker.

    We have to deter the principals in a very personal way, not murder millions of civilians. That's why I'm in favour of multiple autonomous drones with biomarker data on the human target.
    Not exactly workable your plan though is it?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Chris_A said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris_A said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris_A said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot.
    That's an awful lot of the county you think are idiots.
    Go on then, answer the questions and show us your wisdom.
    I didn't say I supported keeping our nuclear weapons - in fact I am deeply conflicted about the best approach and used to support unilateralism, but right now am very wishy washy on the whole business - but it is telling that you immediately get all snippy and demand I defend a position I didn't put forward.

    All I did was point out the fact that as a lot of people support it, you are calling a lot of people idiots.

    So why don't you explain in less insulting and patronising terms why keeping our nuclear weapons is a bad idea, rather than just dismiss a majority of the country? I'm open to being convinced.

    Or you could act like a complete arsehole and call the electorate idiots. Again.
    Yes support for nuclear weapons is idiotic - it's an utter no brainer.
    Well that's me off the fence and convinced.

    In all seriousness, you don't have to convince me of course, but just spraying out 'it's idiotic' is not going to help advance promoting that policy on the doorstep anytime soon is it? The Tories have spent weeks telling people how silly it is to vote Labour under Corbyn, and it's only made more people want to do it.

    Makes you feel better though, no doubt.
    It doesn't at all. The argument is that us having nuclear weapons makes the world a safer place. I have to admit that I cannot conceive of a more idiotic conceit.
    Well apparently millions of people don't get it and we should just write them off as not worthy of even an attempt at enlightenment, and should just be told what idiots they are until they see the light that way.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    Frankie Boyle understands the Tory selling point:

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/870744050676236288
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    TMA1 said:

    glw said:

    Floater said:

    He said he would do anything for Islam even kill his mother. (So says the person who reported him)

    That's a pretty low threshold for fanaticism, lots of people say stuff like "I'd die for X", or "I'd kill for Y". What you are looking for is the person who says that frequently, or shows signs of turning word into deed.
    Both he and the Manchester attacker seem to have been banned by their mosques by mainstream imams for their political outbursts.

    Perhaps that is a weekly occurrence, or perhaps it should be a major red flag. Being banned from places of worship is unknown in my church, though we do occassionally need to get elders to calm worshippers down.
    There you go again. 'elders' 'worshippers'

    WORSHIPPERS!!!

    Don't you think enough is enough?
    I was referring to my own church with those terms.

    We all agree that "Enough is Enough" in that tautological way that Mrs "Brexit means Brexit" uses.

    It is a meaningless and vacuous soundbite, that explains nothing of what she has in mind, only her frustration.
    That's a bogus excuse. Mealy mouthed in the - no sick pun intended - extreme.
    Changes to how we view and operate our security need thought and discussipn. But it is quite fair to say that we might just need to make those changes. And of course such changes will not be without some problems controversy pain difficulty. Which is why they get regularly brushed under the carpet.
    And this is not just a govt responsibility. Its the ready hearing that the sanctimonious protest industry gets, cheerleaded on by Labours new whitewash brush artist.

  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    Frankie Boyle understands the Tory selling point:

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/870744050676236288
    Frankie Boyle is a luvvie gobshite.

    Vote Corbyn and the economic shambles coming our way will make £10 the maximum wage, not the minimum.

    Night all.
  • Options
    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    You think Lucas will lose in Brighton?
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    CON 345

    I would mark Lab and SNP down slightly, largely to the benefit of Cons.
    I hope you're right. I'd hope for something like

    Con 370
    Lab 190 (low enough that I think Corbyn would be forced out and his successor not being of his choosing)
    SNP 43 (well really I'd hope for even fewer, but one has to keep a sense of realism)
    LD 15 (holding most current areas, and gaining more than just in Scotland)

    Unfortunately my hope is mathematically impossible, as I'd like Corbyn to be reduced enough to go, without the Tories having an unassailable majority, but without massive LD gains, only a Con landslide can get Corbyn out.
    I'm struggling to get the LibDems up as high as 15. I'm starting to think the opposite: that they might get well and truly baxtered.

    I think the range is something like 4-13, with the lower end more likely than the top end.

    But in an absolutely idea situation - something like the polls not picking up some uptick in LD support, and that support clustering in key seats, and Labour not surging as much as the polls say, and some good tactical voting, and the lack of UKIP in target seats not hurting them as much as thought - then if they could hold all or almost all their current seats, they could then pick up a couple in London, Cambridge, maybe a West Country seat, and say 4-5 seats in Scotland, and you can get up to 15.

    But it is a lot of things needing to go right for them to get that many. As it is, despite 2015 like others I still think they will outperform the polls in their remaining seats to some extent, and that tactical voting could see a couple of gains in Scotland, if they are lucky enough to offset some likely losses. Maybe a London seat to make up for probable losses in England.

    Now I think on it, 9 is probably a bit optimistic for them though.
    The biggest hope that the LDs have is the supposed 20% of the electorate who will consider voting tactically as mentioned in a thread header a couple of days ago.
    If we to see a significant increase in tactical voting, as encouraged by OGH, and which something that is going to been seen in large chunks of Scotland anyway, then we could see a few more splodges of Gold on the map come the morning of the 9th.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyan said:

    Why doesn't Farron say that if the LibDems hold the balance of power he will support a Labour government, as Sturgeon has said about the SNP? Part of the reason the LibDems are polling so badly is that people remember how they helped the Tories for five years.

    Because the LDs had hoped to get the votes of Labour and Tory remainers, not all of whom will despise the Coalition. If they will only ever support one side, they really are just a junior version of that party, and since they obviously could not back the Tories again in a generation, ruling out any cooperation was probably seen as the most sensible course.
    ?? I thought they hadn't ruled out cooperating with either of the two larger parties. I agree with LibDem policy on the EU, but this has turned out not to be a Brexit election.
    Ok, not ruled out 'any' cooperation, ruled out coalition. But let's face it - if they 'cooperated' with the Tories that would be called by Labour and others as the same level of sin as doing a formal deal, and the same would said if they worked with Labour.
    I wonder what would happen if Farron were to announce some time during the next three days that if there is a hung parliament he will seek to form a coalition with Labour. That might win him sufficient tactical votes to take Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, and Sutton & Cheam. He could say May went to the country on whether or not the British people support her government, so let's give her an answer. Especially now that her leadership rating has fallen so drastically.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995
    Floater said:

    Barnesian said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    And the person who pressed the button against us safe in a deep bunker.

    We have to deter the principals in a very personal way, not murder millions of civilians. That's why I'm in favour of multiple autonomous drones with biomarker data on the human target.
    Not exactly workable your plan though is it?
    The technology is available. But our leaders might not like a personal tit for tat.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,703
    YouGov - GIGO? We'll know soon enough.

    Meanwhile:

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/871447636653600769
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    AndyJS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Dadge said:

    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

    You will never be able to eliminate these things from the internet. The internet is uncontrollable by any government. May knows this, but it won't stop her from establishing wholesale government censorship of the internet.
    The internet could be controlled if the world's most powerful countries got together and agreed on what is and isn't acceptable.
    What about the WorldWideWeb?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    I make it 11 polls (+ 5 versions of YouGov 50,000 panel which I thought you were excluding).

    Surveys ending 29 May to 4 June.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    Frankie Boyle understands the Tory selling point:

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/870744050676236288
    Boyle's as amusing as radiation sickness. A zero talent fraud.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    Frankie Boyle understands the Tory selling point:

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/870744050676236288
    There you go AGAIN.

    'Have I Got A Crappy Load Of Nonsense For You'

  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Apologies Sunil - hadn't refreshed page - it is 13 - sorry!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Both Cameron and May poll above their party and Miliband and Corbyn poll below theirs and that is still the case even now despite May's poll dip, however the difference is that May will now have UKIP voters and a handful of Labour Brexit voters to add onto the vast majority of Cameron's 37% and that will probably make the difference to ensure she increases her majority to around 50-80 or so from Cameron's 12. Brown of course would probably have won in 2007, narrowly, had he gone ahead with the election and certainly had he been facing a weaker Tory leader than Cameron
  • Options
    I'd imagine that he's worked out that the correct vote in his constituency is to vote Liberal Democrat
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    TMA1 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:
    Empathising is not sympathising.
    How on earth can you empathise with someone wanting to support a group that kills, rapes and butchers innocent people who were just trying to get on with their lives? Non religious people who may have lost their way in life do not generally start joining groups and murdering people for ideological reasons. Westerners who have lost their way tend to do things to themselves such as drinking or drugs, not just kill others for their beliefs.

    Any person running for public office has to meet the standards expected which includes having a 'clean' online history. She clearly fails on that standard. I welcomed her by-election gain for the record but she was wrong on this.
    So, we're not allowed to try and "get into the heads" of our enemies, and must regard them simply as a foreign species to be exterminated?
    We have spent quite a long time trying to do just that haven't we?

    How do you actually get into the heads of people who regard us, you me and the bloke next door, as a foreign species to be exterminated?

    I see the point being made by the woman but don't you think it is a bit fatuous? Well to be honest a lot fatuous to the point of downright crass?
    On the contrary, being able to starve the Islamists of recruits is a vital part of defeating them. Understanding the motivations of recruits is part of the answer to reforming them.

    Though we should get a lot more serious about Islamism in our jails, which is a major recruitment and radicalisation space.

    All I get from that is you dont know how to get into their heads.

    And I repeat ... its not as if we have not been trying
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    TMA1 said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    IIRC the Blair government reduced the number of warheads to 160 approximately, Personally, I think we should increase them back up to the full complement.
    Why? For what purpose? Is destroying 160 cities with perhaps 50 million dead not sufficient for you?
    Frankie Boyle understands the Tory selling point:

    https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/870744050676236288
    There you go AGAIN.

    'Have I Got A Crappy Load Of Nonsense For You'

    Just discovered that Frankie Boyle's blocked me.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,436
    Saltire said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    :

    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    Where we are now with Russia certainly has the potential to get cooler even if we're not at Cold War temperatures yet. Also once we disarm (nuclear-wise), that's us done, effectively for ever. That gives North Korea or any other state prepared to make the nuclear investment a bigger stick than we have. It's all in the word "deterrent" although I accept that North Korea may be an outrider in that respect.
    I often wonder why it is imperative to so many people that we have nuclear weapons when Germany seems to manage just fine without them.
    And if Russia did decide to take us of the map with a nuclear strike it is not much of a consolation to know that we will have taken out a few of their cities just before we are all dead!
    The Germans essentially subcontracted their nuclear umbrella from NATO. One point of NATO is nuclear protection without proliferation.

    The point about Trident is this, by the way. It is accurate enough (even without GPS) and has enough warheads to defeat ABM systems and take out a deep buried hard target. Accuracy is more important than warhead yield. Once systems get accurate to a certain level, there is essentially no level of hardening that protects the target. This is why the Americans have essentially decommissioned much of the Cheyenne Mountain complex.

    Trident means (among other things) that you can reach out and touch a particular someone, no matter where they are and how deeply buried they are.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Scott_P said:
    Well done OGH for winding up the cybernats and let us hope it pays off on Thursday, that is one LD gain I will be happy to cheer!
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Prediction: SNP hold

    MP at 2015: John Nicolson (SNP)
    County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
    Electorate: 66,966
    Turnout: 81.9% 2015

    Votes 2015
    Share Predicted
    Votes
    SNP 22,093 40.3% 33.8%
    LIB 19,926 36.3% 25.9%
    LAB 6,754 12.3% 10.9%
    CON 4,727 8.6% 29.0%
    Gree 804 1.5% 0.0%
    UKIP 567 1.0% 0.0%
    OTH 0 0.0% 0.4%

    NAT Majority 2,167 3.9% Pred Maj 4.8%


    THIS FROM ELECTORAL CALCULUS. YOU MAY BE QUITE HAPPY HYUFD BUT MANY WILL BELIEVE THAT MIKE HAS CROSSED A LINE FROM WHICH THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. RESPECTED WEBSITES ARE NOT PROPAGANDA LEAFLETS NOR SHOULD NOT BE. ELECTIONS COME AND GO BUT REPUTATION IS MORE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. IF MIKE WANTS TO BACK THE LIBS THEN SO BE IT BUT TO DO IT IN THIS WAY IS AT BEST QUESTIONABLE.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    scotslass said:

    Prediction: SNP hold

    MP at 2015: John Nicolson (SNP)
    County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
    Electorate: 66,966
    Turnout: 81.9% 2015

    Votes 2015
    Share Predicted
    Votes
    SNP 22,093 40.3% 33.8%
    LIB 19,926 36.3% 25.9%
    LAB 6,754 12.3% 10.9%
    CON 4,727 8.6% 29.0%
    Gree 804 1.5% 0.0%
    UKIP 567 1.0% 0.0%
    OTH 0 0.0% 0.4%

    NAT Majority 2,167 3.9% Pred Maj 4.8%


    THIS FROM ELECTORAL CALCULUS. YOU MAY BE QUITE HAPPY HYUFD BUT MANY WILL BELIEVE THAT MIKE HAS CROSSED A LINE FROM WHICH THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. RESPECTED WEBSITES ARE NOT PROPAGANDA LEAFLETS NOR SHOULD NOT BE. ELECTIONS COME AND GO BUT REPUTATION IS MORE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. IF MIKE WANTS TO BACK THE LIBS THEN SO BE IT BUT TO DO IT IN THIS WAY IS AT BEST QUESTIONABLE.

    On today's Comres the LDs would take East Dunbartonshire, just but as you chart shows it needs Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to tactically vote LD to do so, the fact he is getting under your skin only reinforces the fact he is on the right track. OGH has always been a LD backer and has never hid it and is doing nothing illegal, if you want to hold the seat I suggest you nats work a bit harder to ensure you do rather than snapping at Our Genial Host. Goodnight
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    @scotslass - was it really necessary to have the entire bit in caps?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    Prediction: SNP hold

    MP at 2015: John Nicolson (SNP)
    County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
    Electorate: 66,966
    Turnout: 81.9% 2015

    Votes 2015
    Share Predicted
    Votes
    SNP 22,093 40.3% 33.8%
    LIB 19,926 36.3% 25.9%
    LAB 6,754 12.3% 10.9%
    CON 4,727 8.6% 29.0%
    Gree 804 1.5% 0.0%
    UKIP 567 1.0% 0.0%
    OTH 0 0.0% 0.4%

    NAT Majority 2,167 3.9% Pred Maj 4.8%


    THIS FROM ELECTORAL CALCULUS. YOU MAY BE QUITE HAPPY HYUFD BUT MANY WILL BELIEVE THAT MIKE HAS CROSSED A LINE FROM WHICH THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. RESPECTED WEBSITES ARE NOT PROPAGANDA LEAFLETS NOR SHOULD NOT BE. ELECTIONS COME AND GO BUT REPUTATION IS MORE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. IF MIKE WANTS TO BACK THE LIBS THEN SO BE IT BUT TO DO IT IN THIS WAY IS AT BEST QUESTIONABLE.

    On today's Comres the LDs would take East Dunbartonshire, just but as you chart shows it needs Tory and Labour and UKIP voters to tactically vote LD to do so, the fact he is getting under your skin only reinforces the fact he is on the right track. OGH has always been a LD backer and has never hid it and is doing nothing illegal, if you want to hold the seat I suggest you nats work a bit harder to ensure you do rather than snapping at Our Genial Host. Goodnight
    The tory and labour voters in that seat know what they must do. :smiley:
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003
    It's getting a bit boring; we need another "terror" attack, poll or Diane Abbott interview.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    scotslass said:

    Prediction: SNP hold

    MP at 2015: John Nicolson (SNP)
    County/Area: Glasgow area (West Scotland)
    Electorate: 66,966
    Turnout: 81.9% 2015

    Votes 2015
    Share Predicted
    Votes
    SNP 22,093 40.3% 33.8%
    LIB 19,926 36.3% 25.9%
    LAB 6,754 12.3% 10.9%
    CON 4,727 8.6% 29.0%
    Gree 804 1.5% 0.0%
    UKIP 567 1.0% 0.0%
    OTH 0 0.0% 0.4%

    NAT Majority 2,167 3.9% Pred Maj 4.8%


    THIS FROM ELECTORAL CALCULUS. YOU MAY BE QUITE HAPPY HYUFD BUT MANY WILL BELIEVE THAT MIKE HAS CROSSED A LINE FROM WHICH THERE IS NO TURNING BACK. RESPECTED WEBSITES ARE NOT PROPAGANDA LEAFLETS NOR SHOULD NOT BE. ELECTIONS COME AND GO BUT REPUTATION IS MORE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. IF MIKE WANTS TO BACK THE LIBS THEN SO BE IT BUT TO DO IT IN THIS WAY IS AT BEST QUESTIONABLE.

    All very shouty with the block capitals.
    I do not for one second think that Electoral Calculus accounts for the tactical voting that is going to take place in Scotland. The SNP (rather cleverly I admit) have produced leaflets saying that it is between them and the Tories in NE Fife based on a calculation from Electoral Calculus with the LDs on about 20% similar to the above for E.Dunbartonshire.

    I will happy wager with you that in neither seat will the Tories finish 1st or 2nd and also, if the SNP vote falls that much in E. Dunb. then Nicolson is toast and Jo will be returned back to Westminster.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435


    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?

    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.

    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.

    Where we are now with Russia certainly has the potential to get cooler even if we're not at Cold War temperatures yet. Also once we disarm (nuclear-wise), that's us done, effectively for ever. That gives North Korea or any other state prepared to make the nuclear investment a bigger stick than we have. It's all in the word "deterrent" although I accept that North Korea may be an outrider in that respect.

    I often wonder why it is imperative to so many people that we have nuclear weapons when Germany seems to manage just fine without them.
    And if Russia did decide to take us of the map with a nuclear strike it is not much of a consolation to know that we will have taken out a few of their cities just before we are all dead!

    The Germans essentially subcontracted their nuclear umbrella from NATO. One point of NATO is nuclear protection without proliferation.

    The point about Trident is this, by the way. It is accurate enough (even without GPS) and has enough warheads to defeat ABM systems and take out a deep buried hard target. Accuracy is more important than warhead yield. Once systems get accurate to a certain level, there is essentially no level of hardening that protects the target. This is why the Americans have essentially decommissioned much of the Cheyenne Mountain complex.

    Trident means (among other things) that you can reach out and touch a particular someone, no matter where they are and how deeply buried they are.

    Is that the same Trident that when test fired by the RN recently headed off towards Florida (and not Ascension Island, the opposite direction)? The fact is Trident is completely unproven - unless you believe everything the manufacturers/owners tell you.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,703
    RobD said:

    @scotslass - was it really necessary to have the entire bit in caps?

    Not exactly a sign of confidence......
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,003


    Is that the same Trident that when test fired by the RN recently headed off towards Florida (and not Ascension Island, the opposite direction)? The fact is Trident is completely unproven - unless you believe everything the manufacturers/owners tell you.

    In the June 2016 test that went tits up the Trident system worked fine, it was just given the wrong data. It's still a complete waste of money though.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Dura_Ace said:


    Is that the same Trident that when test fired by the RN recently headed off towards Florida (and not Ascension Island, the opposite direction)? The fact is Trident is completely unproven - unless you believe everything the manufacturers/owners tell you.

    In the June 2016 test that went tits up the Trident system worked fine, it was just given the wrong data. It's still a complete waste of money though.
    Was it fed the secret plan for a UK invasion of the US? :p
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,823
    Barnesian said:

    MattyNeth said:

    Lib Dems 1.08 under 28.5 seats on Betfair seems like utter free money doesn't it? Ive taken a chunk of what was there, but still a little left

    Good luck. I thought 1.03 on Conservative most seats was free money and put the bank on it. I'm now slightly moist.
    I got £450 on Con most seats at 1/9, which is (thinks furiously) 1.11?

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,823
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    Is that the same Trident that when test fired by the RN recently headed off towards Florida (and not Ascension Island, the opposite direction)? The fact is Trident is completely unproven - unless you believe everything the manufacturers/owners tell you.

    In the June 2016 test that went tits up the Trident system worked fine, it was just given the wrong data. It's still a complete waste of money though.
    Was it fed the secret plan for a UK invasion of the US? :p
    There was such a plan. I think there still is, albeit nominally. The scenario is in response to a US/Canada border dispute, for which there are historical precedents. The equivalent US plan for an invasion of the UK would be in response to a UK invasion of Ireland.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Profiles of every candidate at the general election:

    https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/numbers/election/parl.2017-06-08/parties
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,823

    Telegraph confirm that airwolf was carrying SAS, but they arrived after the police had already shot the scumbags.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/04/sas-blue-thunder-helicopter-team-called-london-attack/

    I hate to be pedantic, but the helicopter is a Aérospatiale Dauphin 2. Blue Thunder (film and TV) was a modified Aérospatiale Gazelle. Airwolf was a Bell 222.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_AS365_Dauphin
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aérospatiale_Gazelle
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Thunder_(helicopter)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_222/230
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airwolf_(helicopter)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017

    Are we expecting anymore polls now before Thursday?

    Not sure. It makes everything a bit more nerve-racking if not.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,823
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    A Trident sub has 256 warheads as I recall, so more than a few.

    During the Cold War there may have been an argument for Trident, but it has been an anachronism and distraction since 1990.

    £6 billion per year would do a hell of a lot more elsewhere in our defense budget.
    We have 215 in total according to https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
    Versus 14000 Russian and American ones, 'tis but a scratch.
    Targeted correctly, 215 nukes can kill over a billion people.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Are we expecting anymore polls now before Thursday?

    Not sure. It makes everything a bit more nerve-racking if not.
    I think Survation (delayed from tonight), Populus are doing one on the day, and I think there may be a flurry in the final days like in 2015.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    How will Corbyn supporters react if he adds two million votes but loses seats compared to last time?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    How will Corbyn supporters react if he adds two million votes but loses seats compared to last time?

    The usual: whining, conspiracy theories, and blaming the "Zionist press".
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    AndyJS said:

    How will Corbyn supporters react if he adds two million votes but loses seats compared to last time?

    Like 1992 and 2005; the piling of votes in safe seats is depressing but long term, we will see a labour government in 2022.

    Politics goes in cycles.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    viewcode said:

    Telegraph confirm that airwolf was carrying SAS, but they arrived after the police had already shot the scumbags.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/04/sas-blue-thunder-helicopter-team-called-london-attack/

    I hate to be pedantic, but the helicopter is a Aérospatiale Dauphin 2. Blue Thunder (film and TV) was a modified Aérospatiale Gazelle. Airwolf was a Bell 222.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_AS365_Dauphin
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aérospatiale_Gazelle
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Thunder_(helicopter)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_222/230
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airwolf_(helicopter)
    No kidding. A French [European] chopper ?
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    isam said:
    Obviously not one of the ones funded by the Saudis.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Are we expecting anymore polls now before Thursday?

    Not sure. It makes everything a bit more nerve-racking if not.
    We are expecting a Survation on Monday night for Good Morning Britain on tuesday morning. They decided to keep it in field for another day to gauge any reaction to the attack in London.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    Are we expecting anymore polls now before Thursday?

    Not sure. It makes everything a bit more nerve-racking if not.
    We are expecting a Survation on Monday night for Good Morning Britain on tuesday morning. They decided to keep it in field for another day to gauge any reaction to the attack in London.
    Did they? Or did they just delay publication? I don't think their tweet was clear.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    It's all a bit CND in here today.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017

    The Germans essentially subcontracted their nuclear umbrella from NATO. One point of NATO is nuclear protection without proliferation.

    It's said that the reason the USSR started to help China develop nukes was because the US was considering helping Germany and that the USSR stopped (with a sigh of relief) when the US did. Nukes were a major factor in the Sino-Soviet split.

    The point about Trident is this, by the way. It is accurate enough (even without GPS) and has enough warheads to defeat ABM systems and take out a deep buried hard target. Accuracy is more important than warhead yield. Once systems get accurate to a certain level, there is essentially no level of hardening that protects the target. This is why the Americans have essentially decommissioned much of the Cheyenne Mountain complex.

    Trident means (among other things) that you can reach out and touch a particular someone, no matter where they are and how deeply buried they are.

    Was that discovered before or after the Cheyenne bunker complex was built?

    Computers on the four Vanguard submarines that carry Britain's Trident missiles run on Windows XP, according to Private Eye 1444.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Let us remember the tories had an 11% in the local elections just a few weeks back. This was largely due to ukip switching to the tories. I can't see why ukippers would vote tory in the locals but not the GE. That helps my wobbles.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    nunu said:

    Let us remember the tories had an 11% in the local elections just a few weeks back. This was largely due to ukip switching to the tories. I can't see why ukippers would vote tory in the locals but not the GE. That helps my wobbles.

    Did you read this blogpost - https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-5-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/

    See the regional analysis, Labour piling on votes where it doesn't matter.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    New thread...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Let us remember the tories had an 11% in the local elections just a few weeks back. This was largely due to ukip switching to the tories. I can't see why ukippers would vote tory in the locals but not the GE. That helps my wobbles.

    Did you read this blogpost - https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-5-5-steps-to-making-sense-of-the-latest-polls/

    See the regional analysis, Labour piling on votes where it doesn't matter.
    This is pure horseshit ! His entire crap is built on non-weighted regional subsets. In statistics, you cannot get an aggregate of garbage and then think the average will be OK.

    The best contradiction comes with the received wisdom that the overwhelming portion of UKIP transfers are going to Conservative. Yet in those "regional" graph , in many regions, Labour is the beneficiary.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nunu said:

    Let us remember the tories had an 11% in the local elections just a few weeks back. This was largely due to ukip switching to the tories. I can't see why ukippers would vote tory in the locals but not the GE. That helps my wobbles.

    You have made a very good point. But there has been a swing to Labour since May 4th, so the lead will be much lower . If it is lower than 6.5%, the swing will be to Labour.
This discussion has been closed.