North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
Very true there has been no possibility of defeat but they spew hate out on here and elsewhere then condemn others for doing the same .
Which people are you thinking of? I guess that there's quite a long list.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
As you are thick lefties I have to point out that "Because Enoch Powell" is not an argument which refutes Enoch Powell. And it sure as shit doesn't refute George Washington.
Ah yes, lucid, intellectual political discourse isn't what it used to be.
By the way, you should be careful to pronounce it properly: "AYNOCH WUZ ROIGHT!!"
Thick lefty, and snobbish to boot.
Perhaps address the argument? Is Washington saying what Powell said, and was he wrong too?
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Here's what is going on: Corbyn is trendy, and right-on, and the Labour base is over-the-moon and totally enthused. Even in Surrey and Sussex Labour gets ~10% of the vote, and that's about 5,000 voters or so in each constituency.
It only takes the very few who love him, and live in the country, a retired artist, or wealthy London commuter in the media, to stick up one poster to shock people.
That's it.
Rabble-rousing is easy for a specialist like Corbyn who's been honing his skill (and doing nothing else) for a lifetime, indulged by a party which alternately ignored and indulged him as an unthreatening souvenir of their own youthful fantasies. Or so they thought until the three-quidder black swan flew in.
Unfortunately, rabbles include malevolent useful idiots whose pathological hobby is violence, threatened or actual along with highly intelligent revolutionaries (I.e., better brains than Corbyn's... e.g., Milne) who are only too happy to use them. Corbyn is presently captain of such a motley crew. The ship, however, is effectively pilotless and will founder. Sooner or later. Let's hope sooner, before too many people get hurt.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.
Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Course. I have those 6 as:
Westmorland & Lonsdale Dunbartonshire East Orkney & Shetland Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam
BUT:
Edinburgh West Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Fife North East
Are all projected LD second and without MOE....
I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.
My guess is that Leeds NW will fall to Labour (albeit it'll be very close). Fife NE will also be very close, as the LDs won it at Holyrood last year and topped the polls in the locals there last month. (Albeit by a small margin.)
I also hope that Norman Lamb hangs on North Norfolk. I am Eurosceptic, socially liberal Conservative, and (frankly) think that the strand of liberalism he represents should be encouraged. I'd vote for him.
And Twickenham is also a 50/50 shot for the LDs. Why? Partly Brexit, mostly Heathrow.
I too have seen Labour placards in a field full of sheep - between Skipton and Colne.
I also saw a house festooned with Labour posters in the village of Litton - basically the middle of nowhere in the Dales.
A few normally Tory voting farmer acquaintances I know are very pissed-off at the prospect of losing their CAP subsidies. That might explain it.
No more magic money tree for the farmers!
Conclusion: no voter, whichever party they support, likes their taxpayer funded goodies being taken away.
Having never had any (that I can think of - apart from just beating the £1k-£3.5k tuition fees hike in c.2003) I struggle to sympathise, but I'm sure I would feel aggrieved if they were.
I know I felt irritated at Osborne potentially raiding my higher-rate tax-free pensions allowance.
I have seen plenty of Labour (perhaps a couple in each street) and a few Green in my part of Crystal Palace (the Dulwich and West Norwood part). Not a single Conservative poster- yet even here the Tories can expect to score c.20-25% of the vote. Posters in windows tell us next to nothing.
Farron's performance against Neil won't have helped. He has had a dreadful campaign.
He was a poor choice from a very limited pool. Lamb would have been a least a little better.
A little - but unlikely now to hold his Norfolk seat.
It is very hard to see who will replace Farron - the pool will be very small.
I think there is a reasonable change that if Nick Clegg holds his seat he will be back running the LDs. I'm no fan of his or his politics, but I recognize that he can get the TV time and express himself better than others, we have the president of old leaders returning with both Alex Samon and Nigel Farage.
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Last I heard was that LDs were expecting 5 seats - with 11 at the upper limit of their hopes and 0 as a real possibility.
Farron's performance against Neil won't have helped. He has had a dreadful campaign.
At a local level, I understand the LDs are expecting to gain Twickenham, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West. I don't know what they think at the centre, but I'd be very surprised if it was as low as 5, given the likelihood of getting three Scottish seats and Ceredgion.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
It is ironic that PB Tories are complaining about others regarding abuse.
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
364 spreads midpoint via igindex (SPIN seem down, they're usually the same though) 379 the Tory-best-poll method (Comres +12%. has worked really well since 97)
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Here's what is going on: Corbyn is trendy, and right-on, and the Labour base is over-the-moon and totally enthused. Even in Surrey and Sussex Labour gets ~10% of the vote, and that's about 5,000 voters or so in each constituency.
It only takes the very few who love him, and live in the country, a retired artist, or wealthy London commuter in the media, to stick up one poster to shock people.
That's it.
Rabble-rousing is easy for a specialist like Corbyn who's been honing his skill (and doing nothing else) for a lifetime, indulged by a party which alternately ignored and indulged him as an unthreatening souvenir of their own youthful fantasies. Or so they thought until the three-quidder black swan flew in.
Unfortunately, rabbles include malevolent useful idiots whose pathological hobby is violence, threatened or actual along with highly intelligent revolutionaries (I.e., better brains than Corbyn's... e.g., Milne) who are only too happy to use them. Corbyn is presently captain of such a motley crew. The ship, however, is effectively pilotless and will founder. Sooner or later. Let's hope sooner, before too many people get hurt.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Out cycling at the weekend, and not a single Conservative poster across Bournemouth East. A smattering for Conor Burns in Bournemouth West. Saw a single Labour activist in Bournemouth town centre handing out some leaflets to people who seemed interested - I saw hand out 1 as I walked up Commercial Road. One old lady cycling into Bournemouth with a Labout sticker on her basket.
Out in the New Forest, a handful of posters for Desmond Swayne in Burley and that's that.
This election is passing us by as usual down here....
Take an average street of 100 houses: Acacia Avenue. You see 8 x Labour posters in the windows of 8 x houses, that is, every 5-6 houses or so you see a Labour poster, and *nothing* else.
What do you think?
You think, if you're a Tory, "Oh, f*ck. Labour are going to walk it round here".
Why?
Because your mind naturally interpolates and fills the houses in-between as Labour voters as well.
Meanwhile, Crosby/Messina's data has 18 of those homes down as solid Cons, with a further 7 possibles and 6 waverers.
And they are being knocked up, and firmed up, whilst ignoring the others regularly.
What happens on the day?
Tory votes: 27. Labour votes: 8 (+ maybe a couple of others)
And you are shocked.
Thats exactly what is happening in my area with the LDs. They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..mind you they have gone one better than that and are ringing pretty much the whole constituency every couple of days from an Egyptian call centre in Alexandria..explain that one away on election expenses.. Im sure OGH will give me the reason why that approach doesnt count towards election expenses..
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
Next.
Also. Relying on Labour turnout in Jericho in June is brave......
Many of the final year students will be in exam mode.
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.
You okay? None of us are so perfect as to have halos.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Out cycling at the weekend, and not a single Conservative poster across Bournemouth East. A smattering for Conor Burns in Bournemouth West. Saw a single Labour activist in Bournemouth town centre handing out some leaflets to people who seemed interested - I saw hand out 1 as I walked up Commercial Road. One old lady cycling into Bournemouth with a Labout sticker on her basket.
Out in the New Forest, a handful of posters for Desmond Swayne in Burley and that's that.
This election is passing us by as usual down here....
Take an average street of 100 houses: Acacia Avenue. You see 8 x Labour posters in the windows of 8 x houses, that is, every 5-6 houses or so you see a Labour poster, and *nothing* else.
What do you think?
You think, if you're a Tory, "Oh, f*ck. Labour are going to walk it round here".
Why?
Because your mind naturally interpolates and fills the houses in-between as Labour voters as well.
Meanwhile, Crosby/Messina's data has 18 of those homes down as solid Cons, with a further 7 possibles and 6 waverers.
And they are being knocked up, and firmed up, whilst ignoring the others regularly.
What happens on the day?
Tory votes: 27. Labour votes: 8 (+ maybe a couple of others)
And you are shocked.
Thats exactly what is happening in my area with the LDs. They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..mind you they have gone one better than that and are ringing pretty much the whole constituency every couple of days from an Egyptian call centre in Alexandria..explain that one away on election expenses.. Im sure OGH will give me the reason why that approach doesnt count towards election expenses..
Ask HYUFD where his phone calls for the Conservatives appear in the accounts
364 spreads midpoint via igindex (SPIN seem down, they're usually the same though) 379 the Tory-best-poll method (Comres +12%. has worked really well since 97)
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Course. I have those 6 as:
Westmorland & Lonsdale Dunbartonshire East Orkney & Shetland Ceredigion Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam
BUT:
Edinburgh West Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Fife North East
Are all projected LD second and without MOE....
I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.
I know I've mentioned it a lot but the Almond result is astonishing in its proportions. In a 4 member STV ward with 10 candidates to bust 50% of the vote, 40% for a single candidate is nuts.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.
Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
Do you remember what happened in the aftermath of the Tory victory in GE2015?
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.
You okay? None of us are so perfect as to have halos.
I think Edinburgh West is by far the most likely LibDem gain in the country. Look at the results in the locals last month: they topped the poll in all three wards in constituency, and managed over 50% in the biggest (Almond). Sure, turnout will be down, but tactical voting will be up.
My guess is that Leeds NW will fall to Labour (albeit it'll be very close). Fife NE will also be very close, as the LDs won it at Holyrood last year and topped the polls in the locals there last month. (Albeit by a small margin.)
I also hope that Norman Lamb hangs on North Norfolk. I am Eurosceptic, socially liberal Conservative, and (frankly) think that the strand of liberalism he represents should be encouraged. I'd vote for him.
And Twickenham is also a 50/50 shot for the LDs. Why? Partly Brexit, mostly Heathrow.
How is an old LibDem retread like Vince going to change Govt. policy on Heathrow? Might as well get a Tory MP who at least stands a chance of getting the ear of the Minister, to try and win some concessions on the worst of the impact of the new runway....
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
Next.
Also. Relying on Labour turnout in Jericho in June is brave......
Many of the final year students will be in exam mode.
Assuming the students are registered in Oxford rather than at home with a postal vote. Another possibility being that they are registered at their college rather than where they are temporarily living for the current academic year - which will place them in Oxford East rather than OxWAb.
Oxford Brookes students have already finished for the year - so who knows how that plays out.
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
Next.
True but in this GE all you Conservatives have offered not one positive reason to vote for Mts Weak and Wobbly . Loads and loads of reasons why Corbyn and or Labour will be bad but never ever a positive reason to vote for your party .
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
Do you remember what happened in the aftermath of the Tory victory in GE2015?
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
And yet Conservatives, often here and in places like the Daily Mail, churn out poisonous bile.
You mean we disagree with you.
The shame.
You can disagree. But stop polishing your halo. Your lot are capable of churning out vile abuse.
I don't need to polish it, it shines pure brilliance all by itself.
You okay? None of us are so perfect as to have halos.
3 Labour posters up in Norwood Crescent, Killamarsh. Seems the strongest area of the village for some reason. The Labour board at the end of my road that was up in 2015 isn't there any more... More than there were for the locals I guess. Putting a Tory, or frankly a Lib Dem poster up here would certainly be "brave" so you can't read much into it quite honestly.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.
Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Course. I have those 6 as:
Westmorland & Lonsdale Dunbartonshire East Orkney & Shetland Ceredigion Leeds North West (MOE only) Sheffield Hallam (MOE only)
BUT:
Edinburgh West Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Fife North East
Are all projected LD second and without MOE....
Who do you have as closest challengers in Leeds NW and Hallam ?
How does Twickenham and Kingston also look ? (Of course any model will have Richmond Park safely with the Tories)
Lab in both Leeds and Sheff H.
Twickenham, Tories by 6% Kingston, Tories by 7%
And yep you're right - even I'm hoping my model is wrong on RP. Currently showing Con by 41%......
Out of interest what does your model predict for Hove if you don't mind saying. I think Labour should be comfortably odds on here and 11/10 is great value. I'm on at 9/4 and trying to persuade myself not to go in again! After all even the posh boys couldn't hold on in 2015!!!
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
Next.
True but in this GE all you Conservatives have offered not one positive reason to vote for Mts Weak and Wobbly . Loads and loads of reasons why Corbyn and or Labour will be bad but never ever a positive reason to vote for your party .
Right, the Conservatives won't win in OWAB this time because you don't like their message.
364 spreads midpoint via igindex (SPIN seem down, they're usually the same though) 379 the Tory-best-poll method (Comres +12%. has worked really well since 97)
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Course. I have those 6 as:
Westmorland & Lonsdale Dunbartonshire East Orkney & Shetland Ceredigion Leeds North West (MOE only) Sheffield Hallam (MOE only)
BUT:
Edinburgh West Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Fife North East
Are all projected LD second and without MOE....
Who do you have as closest challengers in Leeds NW and Hallam ?
How does Twickenham and Kingston also look ? (Of course any model will have Richmond Park safely with the Tories)
Lab in both Leeds and Sheff H.
Twickenham, Tories by 6% Kingston, Tories by 7%
And yep you're right - even I'm hoping my model is wrong on RP. Currently showing Con by 41%......
Out of interest what does your model predict for Hove if you don't mind saying. I think Labour should be comfortably odds on here and 11/10 is great value. I'm on at 9/4 and trying to persuade myself not to go in again! After all even the posh boys couldn't hold on in 2015!!!
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
May has promised a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain. On 9th June she has to start delivering. Good luck Theresa :-D
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
May has promised a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain. On 9th June she has to start delivering. Good luck Theresa :-D
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
Do you remember what happened in the aftermath of the Tory victory in GE2015?
Thats exactly what is happening in my area with the LDs. They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..
I had a drive around a couple of the big council estates in Torquay today. 2015 they were full of the LibDem triangles in the windows. Today - apart from the usual eye-catching pitch at an entrance, that they have cultivated over a couple of decades - I saw 4 LibDems. That was big garden signs included. Four. Streets that last time had half a dozen now have none.
Looks like the LibDems are being bled dry down here by Labour (and some transfers to the Tories too). Which won't do either the LibDems or way-back-in-fourth Labour any good whatsoever. Apart from in the national opinion polls....
Driving in the beautiful Kentish countryside around Edenbridge this morning there was a massive Labour poster up in the garden of a barn conversion. I almost careered into the hedgerow. What the fcuk is going on?
Going on number of posters seen, the LDs are going to walk Oxford West and Abingdon - but that isn't how it works in the real world.
Tory + UKIP in OWAB is 52.6% of the vote, and Labour voters won't be surging to back the Lib Dems this time.
Nicola will be fine. More than fine, in fact.
Lib Dems had a lead of over 3,500 over the Conservatives in the CC elections in OxWAB . They do need to get Labour voters in Jericho ward to vote for them to be able to win .
Local elections are not the same as General Elections.
Next.
True but in this GE all you Conservatives have offered not one positive reason to vote for Mts Weak and Wobbly . Loads and loads of reasons why Corbyn and or Labour will be bad but never ever a positive reason to vote for your party .
Right, the Conservatives won't win in OWAB this time because you don't like their message.
Got it.
I have not said the Conservatives will not win OxWAB but the reason they have been going backwards in all the polls is the lack of any positive reasons to vote for them . Negativity will work to an extent but will not enthuse voters .
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
And they will go out in their millions on Thursday - quietly, softly, and determinedly - and vote Conservative. And Corbyn will be defeated.
And the airwaves and social media will subsequently be filled with the biggest petulant strop ever known to humanity, at which those same Conservatives will quietly smile.
And so it was.
I am sure you are right that the Conservatives will win big on Thursday. But that doesn't mean that their opponents will be downhearted. If Labour has indeed united the left, then at least it is clear where the battle lines are. It was only a few months ago people were plausibly arguing that Labour might no longer even be the official opposition. With a Labour Party that can seriously compete for power in the next election in existence, the Tories will be a bit like Tigger after he lost his bounce.
May has promised a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain. On 9th June she has to start delivering. Good luck Theresa :-D
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.
Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
You are definitely far right.
He is in the sensible middle ground between Norman Tebbitt and Augusto Pinochet.
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.
It rather depends how many people are too stupid to see that's the whole idea!
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Out cycling at the weekend, and not a single Conservative poster across Bournemouth East. A smattering for Conor Burns in Bournemouth West. Saw a single Labour activist in Bournemouth town centre handing out some leaflets to people who seemed interested - I saw hand out 1 as I walked up Commercial Road. One old lady cycling into Bournemouth with a Labout sticker on her basket.
Out in the New Forest, a handful of posters for Desmond Swayne in Burley and that's that.
This election is passing us by as usual down here....
Take an average street of 100 houses: Acacia Avenue. You see 8 x Labour posters in the windows of 8 x houses, that is, every 5-6 houses or so you see a Labour poster, and *nothing* else.
What do you think?
You think, if you're a Tory, "Oh, f*ck. Labour are going to walk it round here".
Why?
Because your mind naturally interpolates and fills the houses in-between as Labour voters as well.
Meanwhile, Crosby/Messina's data has 18 of those homes down as solid Cons, with a further 7 possibles and 6 waverers.
And they are being knocked up, and firmed up, whilst ignoring the others regularly.
What happens on the day?
Tory votes: 27. Labour votes: 8 (+ maybe a couple of others)
And you are shocked.
Thats exactly what is happening in my area with the LDs. They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..mind you they have gone one better than that and are ringing pretty much the whole constituency every couple of days from an Egyptian call centre in Alexandria..explain that one away on election expenses.. Im sure OGH will give me the reason why that approach doesnt count towards election expenses..
Do you have any evidence to support that allegation? a link to an blog post for example? It might be correct, but it just does net sound plasable to me.
North East Hampshire: never before seen Labour posters in well-to-do rural villages.
Sunday lunch pub conversation ( same constituency): four oldies, who I would have automatically put in the blue column, livid about winter fuel allowance. Talk of not voting Tory. Where there vote goes instead remains a mystery. Abstention? Damaged Tory core vote?
Make of that what you will.
I live in North East Hampshire. It's the safest Conservative seat in the country.
Posters mean nothing, other than the very few Labour voters there are choosing to show their colours.
There are dozens in Southampton Test, and zero Tory, and it also means nothing.
Yup. There is a vote labour poster up opposite me. Not one Tory poster up in the street. From delivering around here I know that the Tory vote is strong, solid, supportive, but not wont to put up posters...
The risk of abuse for being an open Conservative is a real factor.
And that is something that the political classes have to deal with - and quickly.
The level of vitriol from Left supporters to those on the Right (or in the centre) is so nasty, so cruel, so vindictive, it is understandable that the Shy Tory factor is getting bigger and bigger.
Corbyn has shown himself unwilling to take action against his supporters who have sought to silence or attack their opponents. He is permitting a culture where verbal violence is acceptable and commonplace
You logged onto this site within minutes of Gerald Kaufman dying and posted;
"Hopefully the truth about Kaufman might start to emerge now."
Far right types like you rival the far left in cruel and vindictive.
Why is it cruel and vindictive to want the truth about that man to emerge? I am a strong believer in justice - and that demands that that truth is brought into the open.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
You are definitely far right.
He is in the sensible middle ground between Norman Tebbitt and Augusto Pinochet.
Could you make yourselves look any more foolish with this ridiculous attempt at smearing me?
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
I have to say I think this comment from you takes the biscuit for twisting both the words and the sentiment of what Apocalypse has said. Kind of unnecessary and reflects poorly on you.
On topic: If indeed it is the case that Theresa May has only a small or even no advantage over Jeremy Corbyn, then it's not Tories who need to be worried, it's the United Kingdom. Never before, in the 50 years or so that I've been following politics, has either main party put forward a more fantastical, incompetent, unprepared, economically illiterate, disunited, and dangerous - not to mention vile - front bench as Labour are proposing this time round. Perhaps voters have gone bonkers, but it seems unlikely. At least one hopes so.
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
Silly comment. There comes a point when being a clever arse is inappropriate.
Curious thought. If Tories win, all they done is won two extra years. That's it. Barely makes a difference really. Not even half another term.
It is all about getting Brexit and associated finance bill changes through the commons (and Lords, as its in the manifesto) and syncing the electoral timetable with the Brexit timetable.
On topic: If indeed it is the case that Theresa May has only a small or even no advantage over Jeremy Corbyn, then it's not Tories who need to be worried, it's the United Kingdom. Never before, in the 50 years or so that I've been following politics, has either main party put forward a more fantastical, incompetent, unprepared, economically illiterate, disunited, and dangerous - not to mention vile - front bench as Labour are proposing this time round. Perhaps voters have gone bonkers, but it seems unlikely. At least one hopes so.
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.
It rather depends how many people are too stupid to see that's the whole idea!
You may not have noticed but over the last few years there has been repeated evidence of large populations acting in what might be described as an emotional rather than intellectual manner, with some fairly dramatic results.
So, after much tinkering, I've just finalised my model's prediction for the GE:
CON: 377 LAB: 198 SNP: 45 LD: 6 Others: 24
Of the 47 expected Tory gains I'm happy to report, without too much tinkering, that TP's Don Valley is listed.... Good luck Aaron!!
I don't think that's an unreasonable estimate. Could I ask how your LD seats come out?
I think they'll get 3/4 in Scotland. Plus Ceredgion.
And then I'd reckon another 2-6 in England. To give me a range of 6 (at the low end), to 11 at the high.
Course. I have those 6 as:
Westmorland & Lonsdale Dunbartonshire East Orkney & Shetland Ceredigion Leeds North West (MOE only) Sheffield Hallam (MOE only)
BUT:
Edinburgh West Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Fife North East
Are all projected LD second and without MOE....
Who do you have as closest challengers in Leeds NW and Hallam ?
How does Twickenham and Kingston also look ? (Of course any model will have Richmond Park safely with the Tories)
Lab in both Leeds and Sheff H.
Twickenham, Tories by 6% Kingston, Tories by 7%
And yep you're right - even I'm hoping my model is wrong on RP. Currently showing Con by 41%......
Out of interest what does your model predict for Hove if you don't mind saying. I think Labour should be comfortably odds on here and 11/10 is great value. I'm on at 9/4 and trying to persuade myself not to go in again! After all even the posh boys couldn't hold on in 2015!!!
Lab 46%, Con 40%....
But, as ever, DYOR
Nice one. Thanks very much. Hmmm food for thought.
On topic: If indeed it is the case that Theresa May has only a small or even no advantage over Jeremy Corbyn, then it's not Tories who need to be worried, it's the United Kingdom. Never before, in the 50 years or so that I've been following politics, has either main party put forward a more fantastical, incompetent, unprepared, economically illiterate, disunited, and dangerous - not to mention vile - front bench as Labour are proposing this time round. Perhaps voters have gone bonkers, but it seems unlikely. At least one hopes so.
Well said.. If Labour win.. there is no hope for the UK. I will be the one turning out the light as the last person. to leave the Uk. Anyone else who doesn't is a fool... and YES I will leave the UK and I know where I will go to.
One of the jihadis who terrorised London with two assailants before being shot dead by police tricked his neighbours into believing he was a nice guy by playing football with their children on the nearby green.
Secretly, he was harbouring a destructive hatred and frequently changing his appearance in preparation of unleashing a deadly attack on the capital city during which seven people died and up to 50 were injured last night.
The killer, who MailOnline is not naming because of operational reasons on the request of the police, lived in a block of flats in Barking and also played table tennis with youngsters.
The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.
I don't agree with that. If terrorists carry out a Beslan like attack in London or Paris I suspect all the happy-clappy stuff would be straight in the bin.
Why?
The French did not go all fascist, why would we if the same happened?
The concert was not my cup of tea for a variety of reasons, but clearly a healing moment for many in Manchester
Comments
Subject to any late moves in the polls I'm going for:
Con ......... 357
Lab .......... 212
SNP ........... 48
LibDems .....11
Plaid ........... 3
Greens ........ 1
N.I. ........... 18
Total ........ 650
Con Maj ..... 64
Compensated for by the two Labour posters, I should add.
http://britainelects.com/nowcast/
I think their 354 number is not far off, but I would give them a handful more.
The shame.
Perhaps address the argument? Is Washington saying what Powell said, and was he wrong too?
Twickenham, Tories by 6%
Kingston, Tories by 7%
And yep you're right - even I'm hoping my model is wrong on RP. Currently showing Con by 41%......
Unfortunately, rabbles include malevolent useful idiots whose pathological hobby is violence, threatened or actual along with highly intelligent revolutionaries (I.e., better brains than Corbyn's... e.g., Milne) who are only too happy to use them. Corbyn is presently captain of such a motley crew. The ship, however, is effectively pilotless and will founder. Sooner or later. Let's hope sooner, before too many people get hurt.
Describing someone like me as 'far right' shows how easy you find it to misrepresent and lie.
But at the same time, my model.....!!
Having never had any (that I can think of - apart from just beating the £1k-£3.5k tuition fees hike in c.2003) I struggle to sympathise, but I'm sure I would feel aggrieved if they were.
I know I felt irritated at Osborne potentially raiding my higher-rate tax-free pensions allowance.
Next.
338 UKelects
354 Britain Elects
355 Ashcroft
361 Electoral Calculus
365 Hanretty
....and a few others:
364 spreads midpoint via igindex (SPIN seem down, they're usually the same though)
379 the Tory-best-poll method (Comres +12%. has worked really well since 97)
Unless the Labour oiks ripped them down too....
Should be home and hosed then ;-)
They are knocking on doors and when they find a LD voter tgeybplead with them to put a yellow triangle in the window. They believe its psychology..mind you they have gone one better than that and are ringing pretty much the whole constituency every couple of days from an Egyptian call centre in Alexandria..explain that one away on election expenses..
Im sure OGH will give me the reason why that approach doesnt count towards election expenses..
Many of the final year students will be in exam mode.
Clue: they didn't take it very well.
Oxford Brookes students have already finished for the year - so who knows how that plays out.
The Labour board at the end of my road that was up in 2015 isn't there any more...
More than there were for the locals I guess. Putting a Tory, or frankly a Lib Dem poster up here would certainly be "brave" so you can't read much into it quite honestly.
Got it.
(1) Log-on to Facebook at 10.01pm on Thursday.
(2) Go to 'update your status'
(3) Write: "Looooooooooooooooooooooollllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
362 Con
215 Lab
40 SNP
11 LD
18 NI
3 PC
1 Gn
Nick Clegg, if he holds Sheffield Hallam (which I suspect he will).
But, as ever, DYOR
Looks like the LibDems are being bled dry down here by Labour (and some transfers to the Tories too). Which won't do either the LibDems or way-back-in-fourth Labour any good whatsoever. Apart from in the national opinion polls....
Thanks anyway BJO.
https://youtu.be/VjJDyIAI4SI?t=4m40s
But, you are right to warn of hubris.
One of the jihadis who terrorised London with two assailants before being shot dead by police tricked his neighbours into believing he was a nice guy by playing football with their children on the nearby green.
Secretly, he was harbouring a destructive hatred and frequently changing his appearance in preparation of unleashing a deadly attack on the capital city during which seven people died and up to 50 were injured last night.
The killer, who MailOnline is not naming because of operational reasons on the request of the police, lived in a block of flats in Barking and also played table tennis with youngsters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4570950/Footage-shows-London-Bridge-terrorists-Borough-Market.html
Also enough is enough seems to be the front pages byword
The French did not go all fascist, why would we if the same happened?
The concert was not my cup of tea for a variety of reasons, but clearly a healing moment for many in Manchester