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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should worry Mrs May and all Tories

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Yep - even the majority of Labour mp's agree the man is not fit to lead this country and as for his views.......
    A key consideration. Not one that, polling wise, seems to be bothering people even if they know about it, but a man deemed unfit to be LOTO is self evidently unfit to be PM. And while some of that unfitness was due to fear he would lead them to a historic defeat and that no longer seems to be the case, there were plenty in Labour giving plenty of reasons that were not to do with the defeat aspect.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    It's Milne's end of the conversation, on a train, recorded by a member of the public. Can't find link. Not that exciting.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    How is an old LibDem retread like Vince going to change Govt. policy on Heathrow? Might as well get a Tory MP who at least stands a chance of getting the ear of the Minister, to try and win some concessions on the worst of the impact of the new runway....

    Neither will have any impact on Mrs May. Nobody does, except her own very small circle of intimate advisers.

    But a former Cabinet Minister will get a far greater hearing in the media than a very junior Tory backbencher, whom nobody has ever heard of.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

    Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
    You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

    Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

    Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    Here's the version from the Mail with the transcript: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

    Looks like an overheard conversation.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,977
    edited June 2017
    Anyway here is my prediction.
    Con 376
    Lab 200
    SNP 46
    NI 18
    LD 6
    PC 2
    Gn 1
    Speaker 1

    Con majority 102.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003
    Dadge said:

    What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

    Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    OUT said:

    midwinter said:

    OUT said:

    On topic: If indeed it is the case that Theresa May has only a small or even no advantage over Jeremy Corbyn, then it's not Tories who need to be worried, it's the United Kingdom. Never before, in the 50 years or so that I've been following politics, has either main party put forward a more fantastical, incompetent, unprepared, economically illiterate, disunited, and dangerous - not to mention vile - front bench as Labour are proposing this time round. Perhaps voters have gone bonkers, but it seems unlikely. At least one hopes so.

    and the positive reasons for voting Conservatives are ................... none
    Plenty. Good governance, sound finances, a sensible approach to funding adult social care, getting immigration back down to sensible levels, improving education, keeping the economy on track - what could conceivably be more positive than that?
    Being able to walk around town, go to a concert/pub/restaurant without being mown down or stabbed.
    Happen to you often?
    Who knows who's next.
    Indeed. But if you're genuinely worried then the odds of it happening are infinitesimally small. Hope to allay your concern.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    That might have been the daily mail

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Conservatives' main plank is hard right Brexit. You can understand why a lot of the public might choose a different backward-looking fantasy instead, in the absence of anyone putting forward a forward-looking prospectus rooted in reality.

    Not really. 52% of voters chose Brexit. That might have been a mistake, and it was certainly a high-risk decision, but it wasn't the Conservatives who made this choice. Theresa May has, very reasonably, gone for a policy of making the best of this democratic decision. Labour under Jeremy Corbyn seems to half-agree, so that isn't the dividing line
    What's clear is that the Tories now own Brexit, for good or ill.
    The Tories own everything. They are the only one of the two main parties even pretending to offer a programme for government (and the smaller parties have largely disappeared). So, yes, you are right.
    Whoever wins this election is in for trouble. It's 92 or 05 times one thousand.
    Remind me what was said in 2010....
    Conservatives abandoned their deficit reduction plan at the first sign of economic wobble.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    IS has claimed the London attacks. More shortly.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    Here's the version from the Mail with the transcript: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569528/tape-reveals-Jeremy-Corbyn-bonkers-nuclear-deterrent.html

    Looks like an overheard conversation.
    Joking about national security....5 days time this mob could be in charge.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    Police "crying wolf" - Theresa May
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Typo said:

    A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!

    Did it have love spelled out with guns, hand grenades and knives?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Dadge said:

    What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

    Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.
    Don't knows?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    Police "crying wolf" - Theresa May

    I don't see that quote. Do you have a direct link?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    rcs1000 said:

    Dadge said:

    What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

    Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.
    Don't knows?
    Northern Ireland?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited June 2017
    Dadge said:

    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

    You will never be able to eliminate these things from the internet. The internet is uncontrollable by any government. May knows this, but it won't stop her from establishing wholesale government censorship of the internet.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Dadge said:

    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

    Any action on this has to be international, though. We need the US, EU, and UK all to agree a common position.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Dadge said:

    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

    These media have also become a key intelligence gathering tool, cracking down only works if you can crack down on certain bits whilst leaving others to run.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    isam said:

    ISIS Barking Branch confirmed

    They will probably have a stand at a franchise expo next they way this is going.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Typo said:

    A young lady on the BBC News just now stressing that more integration is key...whilsy wearing a full burka. She is doing her bit for integration!

    I saw that too.

    She might have no choice, or merely developing her own second thoughts.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

    Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
    You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

    Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

    Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.
    Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003

    rcs1000 said:

    Dadge said:

    What's this 39-35 Norstat poll that's been sneaked onto the list? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

    Only 82% for Con + Lab + LD, which seems far too low.
    Don't knows?
    I'm guessing that's the reason. Which means you should probably add 3% to the Lab and Con scores, and one to the LibDem.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I'd be more worried if any of these guys are related to 'Libyan 25'.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    20 Con losses would be perfect.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    Police "crying wolf" - Theresa May

    I don't see that quote. Do you have a direct link?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32806520

    uk-32806520 after http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    in case it does not come up
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

    Now even if they did report an individual, was it a SeanT type well my dry cleaner is acting a bit odd or something more concrete.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    CON 368 (inc. speaker)
    LAB 207
    SNP 50
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 1
    NI 18

    Conservative majority of 84
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:
    There is a big difference between speculating on motivation, and sympathising.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited June 2017
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    Police "crying wolf" - Theresa May

    I don't see that quote. Do you have a direct link?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32806520

    uk-32806520 after http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

    in case it does not come up
    Ah okay. A two-year old story. Given the whole thing was over in eight minutes I don't think police resources is the problem. More money to MI5 etc is probably what is going to happen.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    I read the transcript. It was only the Milne end. A passenger near Milne was recording his end of the conversation.

    I thought what Milne said was entirely reasonable. But the transcript has disappeared and only a Sun edited version remains.

    Edit: The transcript was in the Mail.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
    but the police say they don't have any records of anyone phoning about Abedi? I don't know who to believe.
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    I read the transcript. It was only the Milne end. A passenger near Milne was recording his end of the conversation.

    I thought what Milne said was entirely reasonable. But the transcript has disappeared and only a Sun edited version remains.
    The transcript is on the Mail story.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Dadge said:

    Discussion on Westminster Hour about extremists' use of Youtube and social media. It's probably fair to say that May can't fight back effectively against terrorism without better control of these media.

    Any action on this has to be international, though. We need the US, EU, and UK all to agree a common position.
    That'll be it, a single, united strategy from across the developed world to attack the sea with swords.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Fuck me, person in a full niqab calling for more integration...
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    It wasn't a muslim as I understand it but the mother of a child he tried to convert.

    She herself is an Eastern European immigrant and then a Polish lady told the suspect that the first lady had called the police about him.

    The Polish lady now concedes she might have been wrong about the man in question......

    To be honest there may have been others who reported him but that is the only one that I saw in papers
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    RobD said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
    They must get hundreds of thousands of tips a year, and I suspect that many of them are a damn sight more worrying that "he said something a bit dodgy".
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
    but the police say they don't have any records of anyone phoning about Abedi? I don't know who to believe.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot.
    That's an awful lot of the county you think are idiots.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

    Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
    You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

    Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

    Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.
    Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.
    Huh?

    I didn't say we needed a concert to persuade us not to go demonising scapegoats.

    The whole point of my post was that the concert conveyed our values in the first place. Thus my comments about what message it sent out.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    nunu said:
    Zac back and crack open the champagne?

    (You can have that one, TSE....)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    Have the police acknowledged they were told?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,076
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    How have the Sun managed to obtain a picture of the red button? Who knew it looked like a Scalextric controller?
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    nunu said:
    There is a big difference between speculating on motivation, and sympathising.
    Exactly. Nothing she says is remotely damaging to her.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    It wasn't a muslim as I understand it but the mother of a child he tried to convert.

    She herself is an Eastern European immigrant and then a Polish lady told the suspect that the first lady had called the police about him.

    The Polish lady now concedes she might have been wrong about the man in question......

    To be honest there may have been others who reported him but that is the only one that I saw in papers
    Regardless, the police need more resources.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    And what did they say, was it a SeanT style tip off about the dry cleaner? "He's got a beard now!" Or was it "he's spoken about killing people often". If it was the former then fair enough the SiS aren't going to expend too much following up on it, if it was the latter then they need to review what they deem as a threat because that's two in a row they've missed.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    nunu said:
    I don't see anything in that blog where she's "sympathising" with ISIS fighters, in the sense that she's saying it's an alright thing to do -- she is attempting to rationalise it (maybe in a wrong-headed and naive way, but still) and find what she considers solutions.

    At least the public seem to finally be wising up to the right-wing press crying wolf with this sort of nonsense.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited June 2017

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    How have the Sun managed to obtain a picture of the red button? Who knew it looked like a Scalextric controller?
    Was on a TV show about Trident, IIRC. It's the trigger on the sub that the commander pulls.
  • Options
    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
    They must get hundreds of thousands of tips a year, and I suspect that many of them are a damn sight more worrying that "he said something a bit dodgy".
    It must be a hell of a job to just eliminate the green ink brigade.
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    Have the police acknowledged they were told?
    And that the police are suffering under the Tory cuts?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    It wasn't a muslim as I understand it but the mother of a child he tried to convert.

    She herself is an Eastern European immigrant and then a Polish lady told the suspect that the first lady had called the police about him.

    The Polish lady now concedes she might have been wrong about the man in question......

    To be honest there may have been others who reported him but that is the only one that I saw in papers
    Re the story above - I really don't think the press should be naming anyone who informs authorities of those they have suspicions of.

    These people do not mind spilling blood.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

    Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
    You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

    Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

    Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.
    Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.
    Huh?

    I didn't say we needed a concert to persuade us not to go demonising scapegoats.

    The whole point of my post was that the concert conveyed our values in the first place. Thus my comments about what message it sent out.
    OK. Perhaps​ I misunderstood you. In which case apologies.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot.
    That's an awful lot of the county you think are idiots.
    My money is it's actually Chris A and Milne who are the idiots.

  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited June 2017

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.

    3000 people at imminent risk of attacking the UK according to an observer article. In general it takes 12 full time people to put 24/7 surveillance on one of them. That 3,000 is a shortlist of a larger 23,000 people who are serious concerns. Abedi may be have been on the longer list.

    The best solution is to try and reduce the number of people on the lists, without raising the thresholds to get on them.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.

    Now even if they did report an individual, was it a SeanT type well my dry cleaner is acting a bit odd or something more concrete.
    Score settling common in USSR when denunciation was encouraged. Huge can of worms, plenty of people have motives for misinformation, warned the police etc.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    I am not saying there aren't problems. The authorities made mistakes over 7/7 and the follow up.

    I am just saying I am very uncomfortable with the media just accepting somebody saying they reported somebody and immediately going with that. As they kept repeating on the BBC last night, witness reports are notoriously inaccurate.

    We had the guy on Sky saying there was gunfire before any police turned up...

    I want the facts.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    You think Lucas will lose in Brighton?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    And what did they say, was it a SeanT style tip off about the dry cleaner? "He's got a beard now!" Or was it "he's spoken about killing people often". If it was the former then fair enough the SiS aren't going to expend too much following up on it, if it was the latter then they need to review what they deem as a threat because that's two in a row they've missed.
    He said he would do anything for Islam even kill his mother. (So says the person who reported him)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.
    I think that was reported in relation to the plane shoe bomber. The US wanted the plot stopped immediately, but the UK wanted to let it continue to gather more intel.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.
    Swoop too early and you may get half the people, but lose all intel on the other half.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003
    nunu said:
    Empathising is not sympathising.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    Maybe the way MI5 judges the threat of each person has to be reviewed?
    Isn't Barking just the vibrant, diverse beacon of hope?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The concert has been brilliant. Sent out a message of unity, strength and love. That we won't be divided and we certainly won't go demonising anyone who is different or looking for a scapegoat.

    Are you characterising Muslims as "different"? In what way "different"? Different from you? Different from what they should be? Different from Christians? It's unusual to see the inherent racism of the UK left so explicitly stated (except of course where Jews are involved).
    You okay? You're clearly quite triggered tonight. Take a chill pill, as Ariana would say 'it's gonna be alright'.

    Acknowledging difference = racism? Really? Well, bloody hell that's a bit odd from you given that you've just popped to the of Enoch Powell (someone, who ironically is actually seen as a racist by many in communities of colour, especially West Indians - who overwhelming vote for the left that you argue is 'inherently racist'). Indeed, many of those minorities putting an x in the Labour box would argue the reverse - that the right has its own issues with racism.

    Personally, I'd argue neither the left or right are 'inherently racist'. There are bad people in every group. But there you go. Have a nice night.
    Yes sorry for putting it that way, but to repeat, it doesn't take a concert to persuade the British not to go demonising scapegoats, and your implication that it does was point scoring.
    Huh?

    I didn't say we needed a concert to persuade us not to go demonising scapegoats.

    The whole point of my post was that the concert conveyed our values in the first place. Thus my comments about what message it sent out.
    OK. Perhaps​ I misunderstood you. In which case apologies.
    It's okay. I'm prone to misunderstanding what people say as well from time to time. As MyBurningEars only knows too well :)
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    May has a large number of deficiencies and I have little doubt that over the next few years we will discover even more but anyone who suggests that she is no better than Corbyn is deeply deluded. We will end this election campaign where we started it: the British people have not been given a credible choice. Only one candidate is even close to being capable of being PM. And it's not Corbyn.

    Mediocre and lighweight beats catastrophic and toxic every time. But, as you say in so many words, that is not cause for celebration. Voters have never been presented with a worse choice.

    Though the opportunity does arise to have none of the above, via net Tory losses. May would have to resign, and someone capable of putting a minority government would be needed.

    It does seem that at least one of the attackers was known to the security services, the BBC have interviewed a couple of people who said they had reported him. It seems at least that is in common with Manchester.

    On the one hand this shows the problem of a needle in a haystack, but perhaps more positively it does show that the Muslim community are willing to act as our eyes.
    Have the police acknowledged they were told?
    Not yet, but the journalists seem convinced. No doubt we will know more by the end of the week.

    I am not suggesting the services are negligent, but any case like this should merit a serious internal inquiry to look at whether the clues were there.

    Nobody bats 1000 as the Yanks say.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    You think Lucas will lose in Brighton?
    God would need to be in his heaven and the LBGT community be in their cups.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Here's the story -- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3722457/jeremy-corbyns-spin-doctor-brands-idea-labour-leader-would-defend-uk-with-nukes-bonkers/

    edit: the previous version I saw actually had the transcript.
    How have the Sun managed to obtain a picture of the red button? Who knew it looked like a Scalextric controller?
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/first-look-red-button-could-7223666

    Google image search is an awesome tool.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003
    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    I would mark Lab and SNP down slightly, largely to the benefit of Cons.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Danny565 said:

    nunu said:
    I don't see anything in that blog where she's "sympathising" with ISIS fighters, in the sense that she's saying it's an alright thing to do -- she is attempting to rationalise it (maybe in a wrong-headed and naive way, but still) and find what she considers solutions.

    At least the public seem to finally be wising up to the right-wing press crying wolf with this sort of nonsense.
    The moral is don't cry wolf when there is no wolf or it loses its effectiveness, but of course in the end there was a wolf, and that was still bad for everyone involved, including those who ignored the cry in the end.

    Not saying the press don't do all sorts of crap they shouldn't and it diminishes the effectiveness when they do have something, just that when we do miss something even if it is their fault for over saturating us with it, it's still not good for us.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.
    I think that was reported in relation to the plane shoe bomber. The US wanted the plot stopped immediately, but the UK wanted to let it continue to gather more intel.
    Yes, that's been the MO for MI5 for a while now.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    edited June 2017
    I know it's been posted before but:

    The Speaker counts as Conservative and should be included as Con when working out the Con majority. Not only is that how the BBC does it, it's how the official Parliament website does it also.

    Reason: Lab will have to provide two Deputy Speakers and Con one. None of the four vote.

    (Parliament website excludes all four giving same net result).
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    kle4 said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot.
    That's an awful lot of the county you think are idiots.
    Go on then, answer the questions and show us your wisdom.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Chameleon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Someone told me that it's the way MI5 work that's a major issue and needs reviewing they let plots develop and then prevent them at the last minute so they can gather as much intelligence as possible and swoop on as many targets as possible, but it does leave us in trouble if they take their eye off the ball.
    Swoop too early and you may get half the people, but lose all intel on the other half.
    Swoop early and you're definitely going to stop that specific plot.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Danny565 said:

    I don't see anything in that blog where she's "sympathising" with ISIS fighters, in the sense that she's saying it's an alright thing to do -- she is attempting to rationalise it (maybe in a wrong-headed and naive way, but still) and find what she considers solutions.

    At least the public seem to finally be wising up to the right-wing press crying wolf with this sort of nonsense.

    I agree with you. It's a shallow piece, but it's not anything more than that.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Maybe we really do need control orders (or something similar) back.

    For people like Abedi for whom there isn't enough evidence to give a good chance of a conviction in court, but nevertheless who should've been clearly kept tabs on.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    They're trying to detect something with a near-zero base rate. Even if they're getting high quality information, they must be drowning in false positives.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, and carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.

    Well he's not as different as people think - he is capable of adjusting, spinning, and all the other dark arts - he's just been as used to them until now.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    re the tip offs

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/04/london-terrorist-had-twice-referred-police-extremist-views/

    One was the lady I mentioned (Italian) - the other one sounds like a muslim friend, but it does not explicitly say
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,003
    Floater said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    And what did they say, was it a SeanT style tip off about the dry cleaner? "He's got a beard now!" Or was it "he's spoken about killing people often". If it was the former then fair enough the SiS aren't going to expend too much following up on it, if it was the latter then they need to review what they deem as a threat because that's two in a row they've missed.
    He said he would do anything for Islam even kill his mother. (So says the person who reported him)
    What about Mother-in-law? I might consider conversion if that was covered
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Chris_A said:

    Chris_A said:

    glw said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    Instead of reading PB this evening, I watched the Manchester gig, and despite not knowing some of the acts and many of the songs, it was fucking brilliant!

    As for Jezzbollah, and his sudden conversion, this is awkward

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/871457856415043584

    And on police funding, is anyone seriously claiming that last night they needed more personnel or equipment to take down 3 attackers in 8 minutes

    The sun have a tape of a private Milne/Corbyn phone conversation?

    How?
    Maybe there is a patriot in Labour HQ?
    Anyone who thinks that nuclear weapons keep us safe is not a patriot but an idiot. Name one situation where the PM would use them, or one scenario where they keep us safer?
    Were they not a factor in keeping the peace during the Cold War?
    I don't think the Russians were at all deterred by our few nuclear weapons. In general yes they did but we should be reducing them.
    Were other nuclear weapons much more destructive than ours? What number do you suggest we reduce our arsenal to? Or did you mean they should be smaller in size?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    People are saying Corbyn has done a u-turn on shoot to kill. No he hasn't read his words carefully. He says " "whatever force is necessary" to save lives. This could mean whatever *he* himself feels is neccessary, he would probably try to reason with the men stabbing thatwoman 15 times. I'm suprised none of the journalists actually asked him"so does this mean you support shoot to kill".

    The Sun's leaked phone conversation on Trident shows this is all for show, he knows his pacifist views are toxic so him and slime have come up with a way to shut down the media questioning of him with this spin of "whatever force is necessary" it is a get out clause because what he deems is necessary will be different to what the avreage voter thinks.

    And he is getting away with it. Ugh!
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    Feels about right to me, Caroline Lucas aside. Very few seats will change hands! Will still be nerve-wracking...
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995
    edited June 2017

    nunu said:
    There is a big difference between speculating on motivation, and sympathising.
    Quite. If you simply say terrorists are evil or mad and don't try to understand their motivations or how they are seduced into terrorism, you have less chance of effectively intervening. I'm sure the intelligence services put a lot of effort into understanding their motivations and influences. It doesn't mean they sympathise FFS!

    Typical Tory dirty trick.

    Luckily not many people in Richmond Park read the Sun.

    Unluckily Zac Goldsmith is a master of the dirty trick so will probably get out a leaflet on this. But people remember the Sadiq Khan episode so it will rebound on him.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Danny565 said:

    Just like Salman Abedi

    One person tells the BBC they phoned the anti-terror hotline about one of the London Bridge attackers. Two others say they also warned the police…

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/04/three-people-warned-police-about-attacker/

    I am rather uncomfortable how this kind of things unfolds. Anybody can phone up and say well I reported him and the security services can't say anything (at least not until a whole chain of command is processed). After Lee Rigby, the BBC had the CAGE nutter on and he made all sorts of claims which was taken as gospel until a select committee did an investigation months later.
    With Abedi, the Telegraph and The Times said it had happened, hell even American intelligence warned about Abedi.

    There's something not quite working.
    Maybe we really do need control orders (or something similar) back.

    For people like Abedi for whom there isn't enough evidence to give a good chance of a conviction in court, but nevertheless who should've been clearly kept tabs on.
    Yes, control orders are probably coming back for terror suspects.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    If 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn thinks that nuclear weapons don't keep us safe and are a waste of money - and there's a respectable argument for that position - then 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn should say so, carry his 'principles' of the last forty or so years into practical policy, and advocate cancellation of the Trident upgrade. But 'principled' Jeremy Corbyn's principles seem to disappear when he's trying to win an election.

    I was saying this the other day.

    This sums up Labours position re money.

    We won't use it but will spend money we do not have on it anyway.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017
    nunu said:

    People are saying Corbyn has done a u-turn on shoot to kill. No he hasn't read his words carefully. He says " "whatever force is necessary" to save lives. This could mean whatever *he* himself feels is neccessary, he would probably try to reason with the men stabbing thatwoman 15 times. I'm suprised none of the journalists actually asked him"so does this mean you support shoot to kill".

    The Sun's leaked phone conversation on Trident shows this is all for show, he knows his pacifist views are toxic so him slime have come up with a way to shut down the media questioning of him with this spin of "whatever force is necessary" it is a get out clause because what he deems is necessary will be different to what the avreage voter thinks.

    And he is getting away with it. Ugh!

    Before the GE campaign, the media used to pounce on this kind of stuff and bury Corbyn. They would put him under pressure, and he then have his wibble wibble and have to be led away by advisors ASAP.

    Now it is ok and move on.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    You think Lucas will lose in Brighton?
    I think there's a possibility of it (and frankly though she seems talented, I'd welcome it, as I think people give her too easy a ride because she is talented and they like the idea of a Green MP, irrespective of what the Greens themselves can be like as a party) during a Labour surge.

    It's one of the bolder predictions I have.
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    CON 345
    LAB 225
    SNP 48
    LD 9
    PC 3
    GRN 0
    UKIP 0
    NI 18
    Speaker 1

    Maj 40

    I would mark Lab and SNP down slightly, largely to the benefit of Cons.
    I hope you're right. I'd hope for something like

    Con 370
    Lab 190 (low enough that I think Corbyn would be forced out and his successor not being of his choosing)
    SNP 43 (well really I'd hope for even fewer, but one has to keep a sense of realism)
    LD 15 (holding most current areas, and gaining more than just in Scotland)

    Unfortunately my hope is mathematically impossible, as I'd like Corbyn to be reduced enough to go, without the Tories having an unassailable majority, but without massive LD gains, only a Con landslide can get Corbyn out.
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