Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....
Good point. Let's play name the Labour seat gain game.
Okay, Leeds NW, Cambridge.
Err...
Gower, Sheffield Hallam, Morley, Croydon central off the top of my head.
I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.
Yeah. My point is there are plenty of seats it's not impossible for Labour to gain . People seem to be very inert in accepting the Tories aren't doing as well as they should be. Rather reminiscent of Labours fabled ground game of 2015. We believe what we want to.
It seems to have become an article of faith on PB that the Tories are overperforming in marginal seats (so people assume their seat numbers will always be even better than the national poll figures are suggesting), even though there's very little solid evidence to support that.
I'd love to see a YouGov poll restricted to people who have been on their panel at least 2 years - just in case.....
I have been on their panel for 5 years. I have been polled only once in the last year about four weeks ago. I understand they have 800k on the panel but even so.
Mike
I was polled on the 25 and again today. There was a weird supplemental with the 25th attempt that asked if I expected a British city to be attacked by another state within the next ten years that I don't think has been published yet.
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.
Me a Corbynista? Er, no.
Sorry, this prediction has scrambled my wits.
Although if this thing is right, hundreds of thousands have turned into Corbynistas and aren't telling anyone else.
The girls in my office tell anyone who will listen! Never seen so many young people so politically vocal. Weird.
Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....
Good point. Let's play name the Labour seat gain game.
Okay, Leeds NW, Cambridge.
Err...
Gower, Sheffield Hallam, Morley, Croydon central off the top of my head.
I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.
Can't see Lucas losing. What's the point ?
Some polls have had the Greens as low as 1%. IF they really do lose three-quarters of their support (and tbf there have been some polls showing them doing better, including ICM today), then it's hard to see that Brighton Pavilion would be immune to that.
If the collapse in Green vote is due to an anti-Tory tactical voting by Greens then Brighton Pavilion will be immune to it.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
In a way the YouGov would be good for the country, insofar as it implies a big turnout among young people and other usually voluntarily disenfranchised folk.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.
Me a Corbynista? Er, no.
Sorry, this prediction has scrambled my wits.
Although if this thing is right, hundreds of thousands have turned into Corbynistas and aren't telling anyone else.
The girls in my office tell anyone who will listen! Never seen so many young people so politically vocal. Weird.
As more and more twentysomethings, even thirtysomethings, live with parents, I wonder how many are missed by canvassers who only speak with mum or dad.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
He should go to the debate tommorow.
He really should.
He comes across as very authentic. He might as well go to the debate tomorrow, not least to show up Theresa Meh.
In a way the YouGov would be good for the country, insofar as it implies a big turnout among young people and other usually voluntarily disenfranchised folk.
A question. What do people hate most Online? Answer unrequested ads. Can't help feeling the Youtube ones are an error. Both my (non-political) children have said they definitely wouldn't be voting for T May.
I'm in the public sector, with some quite vocal labour people - not a corbyn fan among them, publicly. Deep in the tory shires, admittedly, but i just don't understand the rest of the country anymore.
Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....
Good point. Let's play name the Labour seat gain game.
Okay, Leeds NW, Cambridge.
Err...
Gower, Sheffield Hallam, Morley, Croydon central off the top of my head.
I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.
Yeah. My point is there are plenty of seats it's not impossible for Labour to gain . People seem to be very inert in accepting the Tories aren't doing as well as they should be. Rather reminiscent of Labours fabled ground game of 2015. We believe what we want to.
It seems to have become an article of faith on PB that the Tories are overperforming in marginal seats (so people assume their seat numbers will always be even better than the national poll figures are suggesting), even though there's very little solid evidence to support that.
Indeed we may well be seeing the return of anti Tory tactical voting, while Tories mop up UKIP votes in their safe seats.
Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.
Also Momentum is encouraging people to click on Tory ads. They need to pay for each view.
The rumour I hear is that the Tories have 'turned the taps on' so to speak on paying to put this ad out. That means they are paying lots of money to put it in every facebook feed, at the start of every youtube clip, and so on, they can possibly buy.
Far from the view count rising being a sign of strength, if this rumour were true then it could be a sign of weakness, in fact a sign of outright panic, at CCHQ.
To me the Tories are ramping up their ad spend in a way that looks panicky, although not yet outright desperate. My personal interpretation of the placement and frequency of attack ads suggests that CCHQ think (or at least worry) that this is going to be close.
You do realise CCHQ had to pay for each of the 5m views.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
He should go to the debate tommorow.
He really should.
He comes across as very authentic. He might as well go to the debate tomorrow, not least to show up Theresa Meh.
He has little to lose vs much to gain. And if he is riding a wave, he might as well ride it as high as he can.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
If you constantly repeat 'It's me or Jeremy Corbyn', people who don't want you know what there choice should be,
Will the EU be negotiating with an empty chair on the 19th of June? What if we don't have a government?
We always have a government. The existing one stays in place until a new one is formed, although by convention they do the minimum necessary during the gap. Philip Hammond is still CoE, Boris is still ForSec.
Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.
Also Momentum is encouraging people to click on Tory ads. They need to pay for each view.
The rumour I hear is that the Tories have 'turned the taps on' so to speak on paying to put this ad out. That means they are paying lots of money to put it in every facebook feed, at the start of every youtube clip, and so on, they can possibly buy.
Far from the view count rising being a sign of strength, if this rumour were true then it could be a sign of weakness, in fact a sign of outright panic, at CCHQ.
To me the Tories are ramping up their ad spend in a way that looks panicky, although not yet outright desperate. My personal interpretation of the placement and frequency of attack ads suggests that CCHQ think (or at least worry) that this is going to be close.
You do realise CCHQ had to pay for each of the 5m views.
Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.
Also Momentum is encouraging people to click on Tory ads. They need to pay for each view.
The rumour I hear is that the Tories have 'turned the taps on' so to speak on paying to put this ad out. That means they are paying lots of money to put it in every facebook feed, at the start of every youtube clip, and so on, they can possibly buy.
Far from the view count rising being a sign of strength, if this rumour were true then it could be a sign of weakness, in fact a sign of outright panic, at CCHQ.
To me the Tories are ramping up their ad spend in a way that looks panicky, although not yet outright desperate. My personal interpretation of the placement and frequency of attack ads suggests that CCHQ think (or at least worry) that this is going to be close.
You do realise CCHQ had to pay for each of the 5m views.
Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
Indeed.
In retrospect the 2015 giveaway was EdM campaigning in Warwickshire North - the then most marginal Conservative constituency.
Now where have the leading politicians been at this election - not the likes of Amber Valley and Erewash but Bolsover and Chesterfield.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
Negative campaigning certainly isn't a risk-free strategy. Corbyn is trying to attract people who are disillusioned with politics. One of the things that makes people disillusioned with politics is negative campaigning.
In a way the YouGov would be good for the country, insofar as it implies a big turnout among young people and other usually voluntarily disenfranchised folk.
It's a great poll for betting.
Nonsense of course.
Yep, should push the Tory price up a bit on my forecast outcome of 95 majority. Still sticking.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
He should go to the debate tommorow.
The problem is that trying to portray him as wild-eyed jihadist IRA volunteer doesn't really square with his current mien of the genial old grandad. The Tory campaign should have been about Theresa and her mission to build a powerful and robust mandate for Brexit. Nothing else. Corbyn and Labour should have been ignored as an utter irrelevance.
If this lot is right I might drop ~ 2 grand in the betting.. (Though will still be up on the year from Macron etc) My house will halve, but any I want to buy will go down also.
I'm in the public sector, with some quite vocal labour people - not a corbyn fan among them, publicly.
It doesn't matter too much whether they're Corbyn fans, as long as they vote for him. My suspicion is that the campaign so far is encouraging people to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
If you constantly repeat 'It's me or Jeremy Corbyn', people who don't want you know what there choice should be,
Jezza knows how to work a crowd, and gain the big Mo.
It was a choice between Tory and LD anyway, and I know the LD candidate, who is a good man. But if I cannot affect the outcome, I should at least indicate I would rather Tories win than Corbyn, in these circumstances equivocation cannot be borne.
I don't believe YouGov for a minute, but I do believe it increases the chance of (as someone put it upthread) a black swan. If Corbyn turns up to the debate and monsters Rudd, while Farron holds firm, the narrative could swing.
One of many key things in this election is the silence of the Libdems and Greens. If you were CCHQ you'd be constantly on the phone to the media trying to persuade them to focus more on those two also-rans. Both parties are running 90% paper campaigns, i.e. only spending their time, effort and money on a small number of winnable seats, allowing Labour a free run over most of the country. After all, that's their best strategy. If they win 20 seats between them but the Tories win by 50, there's no point. If they win 10 seats between them but it's a hung parliament, they have some power.
Some observations from my constituency - Con gain in 2010 from Labour. There is more activity from Labour activists than 2015. I have even seen Labour posters in fields! Only had one Con leaflet, 2 from Labour, and 2 from Lib Dems. We have had 2 hustings which were both very anti-Conservative - very clear Labour activist participation. I originally assumed an increased Conservative majority - not sure now.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?
They had this model. Did they say they actually used it for their public figures ? During the post-election review they realised it was correct all along. Remember, the received wisdom was Remain was going to win anyway, like the Tories now.
So what is YouGov doing that Electoral Calculus, for example, isnt?
Go on, have a guess. What are *all* the polling companies doing in 2017 (well, nearly) that only some did in 2016 EUREF and few in 2015 GE?
Yes, they are using models.
They have recruited some cheeky cherubs with MScs in Data Science or Machine Learning with new laptops that their Mum bought them, with R uploaded and wheeling thru the HighPerformanceComputing and MachineLearning views of CRAN. They're doing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, they're having a whale of a time, the clients are impressed, and that shit looks really good on your CV, trust me. You can point to stuff on screens. Woo.
There is one teeny problem.
Any model is dependent on assumptions about past behavior, and if those behaviors change (eg bigger than expected youth turnout) then the model is fucked. This isn't an abstract problem, it happened with ComRes and their Voter Turnout Model in 2016 EURef. So they've replaced something which isn't dependent (asking people about their Likelihood To Vote on a 1-10 scale) with something that is dependent (a voter turnout model)
On the specific case of YouGov, they're using another model to deduce seats from votes. Which is poling Pelion upon Ossa if you ask me: why in the name of Almighty God are they producing seat estimates at all?!
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
That does sound very similar to the Ashcroft model's approach:
The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey... with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population."
Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....
Good point. Let's play name the Labour seat gain game.
Okay, Leeds NW, Cambridge.
Err...
Gower, Sheffield Hallam, Morley, Croydon central off the top of my head.
I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.
Yeah. My point is there are plenty of seats it's not impossible for Labour to gain . People seem to be very inert in accepting the Tories aren't doing as well as they should be. Rather reminiscent of Labours fabled ground game of 2015. We believe what we want to.
It seems to have become an article of faith on PB that the Tories are overperforming in marginal seats (so people assume their seat numbers will always be even better than the national poll figures are suggesting), even though there's very little solid evidence to support that.
Yeah. Tactical voting could easily see the Tories revert back to the inefficient vote they historically had prior to 2015. And Cameron was considerably more acceptable to 2010 Lib Dems than May is now.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
If you constantly repeat 'It's me or Jeremy Corbyn', people who don't want you know what there choice should be,
Jezza knows how to work a crowd, and gain the big Mo.
(I hate it when you spot a typo too late to correct it... 'Their choice')
On topic, Corbyn has sucked the air out of the other campaigns. The Tories made it a referendum about him, and it doesn't seem to have worked.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
That does sound very similar to the Ashcroft model's approach:
The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey... with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population."
Similar maybe but with two very constrasting results! One giving the Tories 400 seats and the other questioning if they will get more than 285!
I don't believe YouGov for a minute, but I do believe it increases the chance of (as someone put it upthread) a black swan. If Corbyn turns up to the debate and monsters Rudd, while Farron holds firm, the narrative could swing.
One of many key things in this election is the silence of the Libdems and Greens. If you were CCHQ you'd be constantly on the phone to the media trying to persuade them to focus more on those two also-rans. Both parties are running 90% paper campaigns, i.e. only spending their time, effort and money on a small number of winnable seats, allowing Labour a free run over most of the country. After all, that's their best strategy. If they win 20 seats between them but the Tories win by 50, there's no point. If they win 10 seats between them but it's a hung parliament, they have some power.
The LD campaign is very seat focussed, I have had requests from HQ to go help in Cambridge, St Albans and Chesterfield.
Also more locally for Harborough, Rutland and Melton, as well as Bosworth, but even the latter is a tall order. I will be out pushing leaflets in Bosworth myself.
Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
He might have a novel and untried strategy that involves mentioning the IRA.
Could it be that the Tory strategy of concentrating on Jezza is actually helping his brand? and that the more people see him, the more charmed they are?
If you constantly repeat 'It's me or Jeremy Corbyn', people who don't want you know what there choice should be,
Jezza knows how to work a crowd, and gain the big Mo.
(I hate it when you spot a typo too late to correct it... 'Their choice')
On topic, Corbyn has sucked the air out of the other campaigns. The Tories made it a referendum about him, and it doesn't seem to have worked.
Seemed like a safe gamble given the polls, given the locals, given Copeland. Somehow they've mucked it up. Small majority at best, 30-40.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?
They had this model. Did they say they actually used it for their public figures ? During the post-election review they realised it was correct all along. Remember, the received wisdom was Remain was going to win anyway, like the Tories now.
Yes, they obviously weren't publicly using it at the time.
Move over Martin Boon. I love Tom Newton Dunn and I want to have his babies. Or in a pinch, SeanT's. Or Jason's. What? Yes, I am a slut. A swivel-eyed RW slut, though, and currently in need of anti-YG soothing. Oh wait... get away from me, Sean. I said soothing ffs.
I know Tissue Price is an ornament and a grace to this site, and he will no doubt be a credit to his party if elected. But I can't help but look at that picture and think...
...is he trying to knob that sign? His crotch is very close to it...
Move over Martin Boon. I love Tom Newton Dunn and I want to have his babies. Or in a pinch, SeanT's. Or Jason's. What? Yes, I am a slut. A swivel-eyed RW slut, though, and currently in need of anti-YG soothing. Oh wait... get away from me, Sean. I said soothing ffs.
Some observations from my constituency - Con gain in 2010 from Labour. There is more activity from Labour activists than 2015. I have even seen Labour posters in fields! Only had one Con leaflet, 2 from Labour, and 2 from Lib Dems. We have had 2 hustings which were both very anti-Conservative - very clear Labour activist participation. I originally assumed an increased Conservative majority - not sure now.
In my safe seat the only leaflets are 2 from the LD, but we do have quite a few LD councillors.
I don't believe YouGov for a minute, but I do believe it increases the chance of (as someone put it upthread) a black swan. If Corbyn turns up to the debate and monsters Rudd, while Farron holds firm, the narrative could swing.
One of many key things in this election is the silence of the Libdems and Greens. If you were CCHQ you'd be constantly on the phone to the media trying to persuade them to focus more on those two also-rans. Both parties are running 90% paper campaigns, i.e. only spending their time, effort and money on a small number of winnable seats, allowing Labour a free run over most of the country. After all, that's their best strategy. If they win 20 seats between them but the Tories win by 50, there's no point. If they win 10 seats between them but it's a hung parliament, they have some power.
Labour have the spending power whereas they don't, so yes it's a case of the Red Machine being given a free pass by the pipsqueaks, who, as you say, are behaving perfectly rationally.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
That does sound very similar to the Ashcroft model's approach:
The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey... with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population."
The same snake oil salesperson sold to both of them ?
There is simply no way on God's green earth that remain-leave polarisation of the vote favours Labour. Leave won over 400 seats, the Tories are well up with leave voters.
Some observations from my constituency - Con gain in 2010 from Labour. There is more activity from Labour activists than 2015. I have even seen Labour posters in fields! Only had one Con leaflet, 2 from Labour, and 2 from Lib Dems. We have had 2 hustings which were both very anti-Conservative - very clear Labour activist participation. I originally assumed an increased Conservative majority - not sure now.
In my safe seat the only leaflets are 2 from the LD, but we do have quite a few LD councillors.
The leaflet decided Fox jr for LD over Labour.
More than your own persuasions? That must have been some leaflet!
Night all. As I said, if this is right I will donate money to the Labour party in recognition of their astounding success.
May should do the debate tomorrow because it won't cost her anything.
It's a far easier format than C4 yesterday or BBC1 QT on Friday.
Seven people giving one minute soundbites with minimal debate or interaction.
Slow paced, nobody gets the chance to build any momentum as you don't get to talk for long enough.
Agreed.
Not sure, she's so ponderous and flat footed and waffly she might make things worse. Tories should have sent Ruth Davidson. She's quick thinking and an excellent speaker.
I know Tissue Price is an ornament and a grace to this site, and he will no doubt be a credit to his party if elected. But I can't help but look at that picture and think...
...is he trying to knob that sign? His crotch is very close to it...
Comments
He sold the Tories at 393
UNS is crap anyway.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/869664136065634305
....who am I kidding
He should go to the debate tommorow.
Just saying.
PS house theft is a shitter idea to beat him than Kendalls pretend were Tories and Smiths negotiate with ISIS
Although if Paul Mason finds it unbelievably good for Labour, then YouGov have some amazing faith in their model to push it like this.
Retaining 50 seats would be a stonkingly good figure for them really.
Nonsense of course.
(UNS might be broken, but it's not broken enough for a Tory share of 43%+ to yield a hung parliament.)
Maybe they're the LA times/USC pollster of this election? Maybe Corbyn is Bernie Sanders in Michigan? Who knows?
It's all very exciting. We'll see what comes tomorrow.
For now, I've closed out most of my betting positions for a small loss.
In retrospect the 2015 giveaway was EdM campaigning in Warwickshire North - the then most marginal Conservative constituency.
Now where have the leading politicians been at this election - not the likes of Amber Valley and Erewash but Bolsover and Chesterfield.
Compare to YouGov's 2015 polls:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
every one of their 50 polls leading up to the vote predicted EICIPM.
Ashcroft : Tories 396 seats
Fisher: Tories 375 seats
Yougov: Tories 310 seats.
I don't believe it, its just beyond what Labour themselves think, what Paul Mason thinks for crying out loud!
See all of you 8 June xx
My house will halve, but any I want to buy will go down also.
Strange times
Which means effectively nobody is putting their money on what YouGov think will happen.
'Why are YouGov trying to put themselves out of business?'
It's a far easier format than C4/Sky yesterday or BBC1 QT on Friday.
Seven people giving one minute soundbites with minimal debate or interaction.
Slow paced, nobody gets the chance to build any momentum as you don't get to talk for long enough.
https://youtu.be/ZBI2fnkFcRw
Days ago this lot had the Tory lead up to 7%.
The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey... with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population."
On topic, Corbyn has sucked the air out of the other campaigns. The Tories made it a referendum about him, and it doesn't seem to have worked.
Also more locally for Harborough, Rutland and Melton, as well as Bosworth, but even the latter is a tall order. I will be out pushing leaflets in Bosworth myself.
NB Seat estimates from @YouGov's election model are based on current data. NOT a prediction. More details on website launching tomorrow PM.
When were they all released?
(YouGov was obviously tonight)
...is he trying to knob that sign? His crotch is very close to it...
The leaflet decided Fox jr for LD over Labour.
Their constituency model might be quite good - even if the VI is overstating Lab.
The lab vote could potentially be nice and efficient.
Tories piling up votes where they either a) don't need them (blue heartlands) and/or b) where they're not strong enough to challenge (lab heartlands)
I want to play with their constituency model. Hope it goes online.
Night all. As I said, if this is right I will donate money to the Labour party in recognition of their astounding success.