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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has

SystemSystem Posts: 11,689
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

Wednesday's TIMES: "Shock poll predicts Tory losses" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/2mExAKwfDQ

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Not convinced.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited May 2017
    Third too. Dancin'
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    Pong said:

    Not convinced.

    I don't think anyone is.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I've always wanted to go to Venezuela, now I won't even need to travel.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    Still, it is another barometer with which to measure the trend.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/869665710800326656
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Word in Labour circles is that Corbyn is planning to do the BBC election debate tomorrow night. Will pit him against Amber Rudd plus others

    With news like this projection to encourage the faithful, why the hell not? Apparently even if he has a bad few days the Labour vote doesn't go down anymore, heck even with ICM it was up, albeit just by 1.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    edited May 2017
    numbertwelve said:

    So what do we believe? Tories losing majority or a gap of 12%?

    This is getting silly.

    Quite so - the pollsters do not appear to be herding to share in any failure together, they are going big and bold with competing visions.

    I can see the appeal in much of the Labour manifesto. I can see the appeal in some of what Corbyn represents (for some people at any rate). It would be churlish to deny they have had a good campaign and they have had a swelling in support.

    But the fundamentals as they existed going into this campaign, when the Tories were leagues ahead and Labour were losing seats in every country of this United Kingdom, simply does not make any sense with the idea they will net gain seats, significantly. People change their support, swiftly sometimes. But so many, so swiftly?

    "It cannot happen" is a dangerous thought process to go down. But assume the young do turn out, assume the Tories don't win as many former UKIP voters as thought, assume the Tories take a hit for social care and other policies, assume Labour are surging - still the Tories should stand still at least.
  • Options
    chloechloe Posts: 308
    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    Unless a couple of polls this week suggest the lead down to 2-3%, I cannot believe this.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    M ore likely CON 300 maj
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Not convinced.

    I don't think anyone is.
    And yet millions of people will see it and not read the doubts in the article itself. Spook some Tories back into line? Maybe. Firm up the Labour vote as they see victory might be possible after all, that it isn't a waste? Maybe.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,992
    Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Well this is exciting.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    So they wouldn't do it unless they were sure?
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    spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    If nobodys convinced why isn't all the 1.18 available on betfair being snapped up? Nobodys got a clue what polls are right so if your own experiences suggest conservatives are nailed on you shoulld welcome this chaos and fill your boots
  • Options
    chloechloe Posts: 308
    Ave_it said:

    M ore likely CON 300 maj

    We are losing this election Ave_it
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    eek said:

    Labour gaining seats? Where exactly are they going to gain seats....

    Broxtowe?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    edited May 2017
    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    With everyone sick of polls The Times had to get this one noticed, as such shoved in a dubious seat analysis as well with a nice shiny exciting headline.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    ComRes also showing a 12 point Tory lead.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    If YouGov is correct, pile on Labour in Morley & Outwood.

    (Just corrected an amusing typo - YouGove)
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    It's based on a Huffington Post poll that has stripped away all the adjustments of other polls. It records Cons on 33% and Labour on 30%.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election
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    wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    This seems very unlikely and severely out of line with YouGov's own recent national figures, unless there's been a big shift in just the last couple of days.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    Comres also.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    So I guess YouGov isn't a Tory run shill operation, Corbynistas on Twitter?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Laura K on BBC1 10pm said big picture was that even most pessimistic Con insider and most optimistic Lab insider didn't think that big picture had changed and were still expecting Con win of some sort.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    kle4 said:

    So I guess YouGov isn't a Tory run shill operation, Corbynistas on Twitter?

    Just scaring the waverers back into line ;)
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    50,000 interviews?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    No we are not Chloe. We might lose one seat not 30.And we are as likely to gain 150 as none.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    wills66 said:

    This seems very unlikely and severely out of line with YouGov's own recent national figures, unless there's been a big shift in just the last couple of days.

    Says sample taken over 7 days, goodness knows what shifts they've picked up to get this.
    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    Comres also.
    So not the only outlier then. Still, YouGov are betting big it won't be any higher than mid single digits, unless their rolling poll swerves back to Tory gains in the next week.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    marke09 said:

    It's based on a Huffington Post poll that has stripped away all the adjustments of other polls. It records Cons on 33% and Labour on 30%.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

    What, really? If so, it's a load of hot air.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The use of the word 'model' by YouGov is always a worry.

    What is means is making it up on pre-conceived ideas.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    50,000 interviews?

    Yeah, I noticed that too. Doesn't match the 7,000 number in the tweets.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    marke09 said:

    It's based on a Huffington Post poll that has stripped away all the adjustments of other polls. It records Cons on 33% and Labour on 30%.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

    really? do you have a source for that?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    edited May 2017
    Juncker will have to stage an intervention to save May now.

    At this rate she'll manage to outdo Cameron in the epic fail political Olympics.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    So they wouldn't do it unless they were sure?
    I found the analysis by Martin Boon from ICM quite convincing. I really can't believe that 38% would vote for Corbyn. But who knows? We are through the looking glass here.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    MikeL said:

    Laura K on BBC1 10pm said big picture was that even most pessimistic Con insider and most optimistic Lab insider didn't think that big picture had changed and were still expecting Con win of some sort.

    Well exactly - the most optimsitic labour people would not have predicted this. That in itself doesn't mean it is wrong, but when it is so hard to see how it was arrived at, its tough.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    kle4 said:

    wills66 said:

    This seems very unlikely and severely out of line with YouGov's own recent national figures, unless there's been a big shift in just the last couple of days.

    Says sample taken over 7 days, goodness knows what shifts they've picked up to get this.
    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    Comres also.
    So not the only outlier then. Still, YouGov are betting big it won't be any higher than mid single digits, unless their rolling poll swerves back to Tory gains in the next week.
    Maybe it'll go stupid in the other direction, predicting 450 Tory seats by June 7th :p
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    Comres also.
    Both ComRes and ICM have had rapidly shrinking Tory leads. Perhaps they are just lagging indicators?
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Prodicus said:

    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
    Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    It doesn't tie up with Yougov's published numbers.
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    You Gov vs ICM Gloves off. You Gov have a highly lucrative consumer research business at risk if they as wrong as ICM indicate they are.

    Mark Textor is also running much larger and better polls than You Gov at the moment for May and we'd be seeing a completely different campaign if anything approaching these numbers were in his.

    Almost certainly to quote Lady Nugee "bollocks"
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/869667517853204480

    Very brave...a courageous decision which could cost them their reputation.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    edited May 2017
    Betting Wizards

    Backing Con Maj at 1.18 and laying Theresa May to be PM* after the election at 1.14?

    If you have £500 on Con Maj and lay £400 of May you get £100@1.34 if Con win a maj

    The downside is May forming a minority Govt but what chance of that is there?

    The bonus would be a Con maj small enough that May resigned or was forced out

    * "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election"
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    SandyRentool said:

    If YouGov is correct, pile on Labour in Morley & Outwood.

    (Just corrected an amusing typo - YouGove)


    You Gove if you want to.

    The lady's not for Goving.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    HaroldO said:

    Prodicus said:

    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
    Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
    Wont go down well. People (audience) dont like being avoided.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    50,000 interviews?

    Yeah, I noticed that too. Doesn't match the 7,000 number in the tweets.
    Isn't it 7,000 interviews per day, over one week that's 50,000 interviews?

    I have asked.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    marke09 said:

    It's based on a Huffington Post poll that has stripped away all the adjustments of other polls. It records Cons on 33% and Labour on 30%.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

    You're kidding? LOL
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Lol foxinsox doom monger throughout you won't be on this site in 9 days!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    HaroldO said:

    Prodicus said:

    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
    Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
    There are u-turns and there are u-turns. "I decided to show up to debate my opponents and speak to the people" is hardly a devastating one. The risks for him are not the u-turning but being shown up by the others, and it might be a risk worth taking.

    Particularly when it seems Labour can do anything, good and bad, and still increase their support.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Wait, this is a poll of poll's?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    50,000 interviews?

    Yeah, I noticed that too. Doesn't match the 7,000 number in the tweets.
    Isn't it 7,000 interviews per day, over one week that's 50,000 interviews?

    I have asked.
    I can confirm that 7*7,000 is 49,000. :smiley:
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    If Corbyn is going to do the BBC debate he should have announced it this evening and got on the front foot - 10pm news would then have led with "Corbyn challenges May" etc.

    Now there won't be any pre publicity and it's not going to rate well anyway with a 7.30pm start up against Britain's Got Talent on ITV.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kle4 said:

    HaroldO said:

    Prodicus said:

    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
    Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
    There are u-turns and there are u-turns. "I decided to show up to debate my opponents and speak to the people" is hardly a devastating one. The risks for him are not the u-turning but being shown up by the others, and it might be a risk worth taking.

    Particularly when it seems Labour can do anything, good and bad, and still increase their support.
    Good point.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    Clearly YouGov think it a risk worth taking, which means they think even if this one is not right, it is close to that. That worries me, even as I still don't see how Labour end up net gaining seats, because unless YouGov and the others are also wrong (IIRC only ICM are now showing a big big Tory lead), it is at least in the mid single digits, and thus close enough to save Corbyn no matter what.
    Com Res and Opinium have big leads.

    But, this projection doesn't match Yougov's own numbers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    Martin Boon and Alastair Meeks versus YouGov.

    No contest really.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Juncker will have to stage an intervention to save May now.

    At this rate she'll manage to outdo Cameron in the epic fail political Olympics.

    Perhaps Juncker will reveal the post dated Cheque signed by TM for €100 million!
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Let's be clear we have won. 10% min lead and 40 maj. 150 maj still possible
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Martin Boon and Alastair Meeks versus YouGov.

    No contest really.

    Should we be resurrecting PB's golden rule?
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised that Yougov are risking trashing their remaining reputation like this. If they are as far out as ICM think they are they are finished. And vice versa of course. But I know where my money is.

    So they wouldn't do it unless they were sure?
    I found the analysis by Martin Boon from ICM quite convincing. I really can't believe that 38% would vote for Corbyn. But who knows? We are through the looking glass here.
    Who's this We? Some *pollsters*, maybe.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    HaroldO said:

    Prodicus said:

    chloe said:

    May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
    Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
    Perhaps the debate black swan would be a barnstorming performance from Farron peeling off some a few percent of centre-right voters from the Tories while Corbyn continues to surge.
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    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Talk of hung Parliaments in the last week is deeply helpful.

    Even if it is not bourne out in any way by what many of us are picking up on the doorstep.

    Entering paradox territory here. The closer it looks for Labour the more they lose by.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Labour picking up UKIP and Green votes?
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Makes one ponder whether the Tories were particularly wise to dispense with the services of a leader who won them their first majority since 1992.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    At this stage one can only laugh or shrug! Who the heck knows what is going to happen. Perhaps this is spot-on, but also how difficult is it to 'model' a result which suits a narrative that the election is getting closer?
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    I'm assuming that BPC rules mean that we'll see tables by tomorrow?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    Bloody hell! Colour me sceptical. Have been on majority 100+, but maybe need to re-think. Do people change their mind this to such a great extent? Not likely! BUT. For many this will be many people's first close-up view of May. She has seriously underwhelmed. Whereas Corbyn has exceeded an admittedly very low bar.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    saddo said:

    You Gov vs ICM Gloves off. You Gov have a highly lucrative consumer research business at risk if they as wrong as ICM indicate they are.

    Mark Textor is also running much larger and better polls than You Gov at the moment for May and we'd be seeing a completely different campaign if anything approaching these numbers were in his.

    Almost certainly to quote Lady Nugee "bollocks"

    With various polls suggesting anything from Conservatives romping to a landslide to a hung parliament, even the reputation of the pollster who "gets it right" may be damaged if more people come to the opinion that the polling is essentially random numbers taken from a hat, and the one that's correct is primarily so by chance alone.

    But yes, high stakes game this. Can understand the temptation to herd last time out. Sticking your neck out with predictions like this is "brave".
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828
    edited May 2017
    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Plaind + Green + Lib-Dem?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    midwinter said:

    Makes one ponder whether the Tories were particularly wise to dispense with the services of a leader who won them their first majority since 1992.

    No choice after Brexit, unfortunately.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    I would really like to see the detailed analysis behind these numbers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    This analysis/poll is great, will get wavering Tories out and end any complacency.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    The model according to the article predicts a range for the Tories of 274-345. So that's clear 8 days out.

    Well someone's wrong. 310 seats v 12 point lead.

    Unless there's a dramatic reverse ferret by the polling companies concerned, someone's going down in flames by about 2 a.m. on the 9th.



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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/869667517853204480

    Very brave...a courageous decision which could cost them their reputation.

    I am in love with Martin Boon and want to have his babies.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    Rhubarb said:

    I'm assuming that BPC rules mean that we'll see tables by tomorrow?

    They haven't posted VI numbers form this, so is it a requirement?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?

    Conservative minority.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives and Northern Irish fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?

    With DUP and the lack of Sinn Fein, might just scrape together a majority, maybe?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Coates says 7,000 sample over 7 days.

    Implies 7,000 total - not 49,000.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    Ave_it said:

    Let's be clear we have won. 10% min lead and 40 maj. 150 maj still possible

    No, we haven't. There are still 9 days to go.

    Beware hubris.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?

    Grand coalition - Priti PM and Rebecca Short-Trousers Deputy PM.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is the comres poll tonight? If so all over party like it's 1983!!!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    welshowl said:

    The model according to the article predicts a range for the Tories of 274-345. So that's clear 8 days out.

    Well someone's wrong. 310 seats v 12 point lead.

    Unless there's a dramatic reverse ferret by the polling companies concerned, someone's going down in flames by about 2 a.m. on the 9th.



    I know political polling is only a small part of the business, but could YouGov or ICM survive being so very wrong?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?

    There'd be a choice: Either the Conservatives preside over an orderly dissolution of the UK in collaboration with the SNP and Sinn Fein, or the Conservatives and Labour form a grand unionist coalition with disastrous consequences.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    MikeL said:

    Laura K on BBC1 10pm said big picture was that even most pessimistic Con insider and most optimistic Lab insider didn't think that big picture had changed and were still expecting Con win of some sort.

    And we all know that Laura is completely impartial.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    midwinter said:

    Makes one ponder whether the Tories were particularly wise to dispense with the services of a leader who won them their first majority since 1992.

    They didn't. He quit!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    So this is the projected outcome based on trends - where up to 21% are still undecided?

    Okaaaaaaaaay........
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    welshowl said:

    The model according to the article predicts a range for the Tories of 274-345. So that's clear 8 days out.

    Well someone's wrong. 310 seats v 12 point lead.

    Unless there's a dramatic reverse ferret by the polling companies concerned, someone's going down in flames by about 2 a.m. on the 9th.



    I think we'll have a good idea with Dimbleby's exit poll at 10pm (thank the gods they commissioned one)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Bromptonaut said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K on BBC1 10pm said big picture was that even most pessimistic Con insider and most optimistic Lab insider didn't think that big picture had changed and were still expecting Con win of some sort.

    And we all know that Laura is completely impartial.
    I haven't seem many Labour people predicting the Tories would not win, even if they thought it would not be by much.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ave_it said:

    Lol foxinsox doom monger throughout you won't be on this site in 9 days!

    Nah. I stick by my 76 seat majority prediction.

    I am glad that I backed Labour in a few key marginals though.

    I also bought NOM on Betfair at 27. it was simply an excellent price. I dont know yet whether to stick or sell.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?

    Conservative minority.
    Con minority with Boris and another election in October?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.

    I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    welshowl said:

    The model according to the article predicts a range for the Tories of 274-345. So that's clear 8 days out.

    Well someone's wrong. 310 seats v 12 point lead.

    Unless there's a dramatic reverse ferret by the polling companies concerned, someone's going down in flames by about 2 a.m. on the 9th.



    Clear as mud. Upper end of estimate a majority of about 40, which would tie in with the 6 point leads, perhaps.

    Polling disaster Mk II coming up for somebody, anyways
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,979
    numbertwelve said:

    welshowl said:

    The model according to the article predicts a range for the Tories of 274-345. So that's clear 8 days out.

    Well someone's wrong. 310 seats v 12 point lead.

    Unless there's a dramatic reverse ferret by the polling companies concerned, someone's going down in flames by about 2 a.m. on the 9th.



    Clear as mud. Upper end of estimate a majority of about 40, which would tie in with the 6 point leads, perhaps.

    Polling disaster Mk II coming up for somebody, anyways
    Mk II? Mk III :smiley:
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    uido Fawkes Retweeted
    zerohedge‏ @zerohedge 8m8 minutes ago

    Pound Tumbles After New Poll Shows Tories Falling Short Of Majority By 16 Seats
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    GIN1138 said:

    Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?

    Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Plaind + Green + Lib-Dem?

    No-one could form a stable government, but Con minority government with DUP support would probably form for time being. Not exactly ideal for Brexit negotiations though.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    Ave_it said:

    Let's be clear we have won. 10% min lead and 40 maj. 150 maj still possible

    We should not even be in this place. We have allowed Corbyn to direct the narrative and we are on the verge of being governed by Corbyn and co.

This discussion has been closed.