I'm assuming that BPC rules mean that we'll see tables by tomorrow?
They haven't posted VI numbers form this, so is it a requirement?
I *think* so....
2.1. All data and research findings made on the basis of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:
Client commissioning the survey; Dates of interviewing; Method of obtaining the interviews (e.g. in-person, telephone, internet) The universe effectively represented (all adults, voters etc) The percentages upon which conclusions are based; Size of the sample and geographic coverage;
2.4. In addition to the information outlined above, the public opinion polling organisation responsible for conducting the survey that has entered the public domain will place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published.
A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published A description of any weighting, filtering, modelling or imputation procedures that have been employed, the weighted and (where relevant) unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data (irrespective of whether or not such variables appear in any tabulated analyses of the data), and the source(s) of the data used to set weighting targets. An e-mail address for further enquiries. It is assumed that all other reasonable requests for other data, over and above the requirements specified herein, necessary for readers of the polls to assess the validity of the data will be answered A link to the BPC web-site In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election or referendum (including any election or referendum that has not yet been called), specify any changes to the way in which those estimates have been obtained since the company’s previous poll of those voting intentions. This includes any changes to the sampling procedures, weighting and the treatment of Don’t Knows and Refusals.
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?
Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?
There'd be a choice: Either the Conservatives preside over an orderly dissolution of the UK in collaboration with the SNP and Sinn Fein, or the Conservatives and Labour form a grand unionist coalition with disastrous consequences.
Formation of a National government, of Labour, LD, NI Republicans and National Tories.
PM Jezza, Deputy PM Robertson, and Anna Soubry as Brexit Secretary. The country would be united again.
If this is right May will go, if it is wrong it will be Stephan Shakespeare handing in his notice, getting 1 election badly wrong for a pollster is unfortunate, getting took completely wrong is untenable. With ICM giving the Tories a 12 point lead on a 2015 turnout model (unlike Yougov) one can only say the latter is very brave
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.
Tbf I don't blame her not trusting John 'I'm a Marxist' McDonnell. Most Labour MPs would never go down any extreme economic plan but McDonnell.....
Fear not. Jezza is a great believer in the restorative and contemplative value of gardening. He wants gardening for the many not the few.
My mum and grandad are already lovers of gardening.
Don't think I'll ever be into it, though.
When I think of gardening, I think of two things:
(a. Gardners World (b. Alan Titchmarsh.
I love gardening, almost as much as Dr Sunil's mum, though with less spectacular results.
I enjoy the therapeutic aspects of getting my hands dirty, and the garden is literally crawling with wildlife - which is what I garden for, rather than spectacular vistas, in the limited space available. My latest wheeze is building little tunnels underground, capped by old plant pots, then inspecting the network every couple of days to see how many amphibians have headed for the shade. Much the same anticipation as opening the windows on the advent calendar, great fun.
And with if you change things about in the garden in particular, you do see something new every year - this summer I saw a smooth newt mating dance for the first time. If only they had little moustaches. Ken would've loved it.
Strongly suggest, @Casino, you get the fork and trowel out. You'll feel calmer for it.
(Wonder what the gardening's like in Canada? Get the feeling winter must be pretty dire.)
YouGov seems to suggest that PBers' assumption that the Tories are going to get even more seats than uniform national swing indicates is wrong. Possibly because the Labour vote is going to tactically collapse towards the LibDems in Tory/LD marginals (as we saw in Richmond Park), meaning that the Labour voteshare is more efficiently "distributed" in the seats they can win this time, than it was in 2015. I've also had a slight suspicion for a while that that huge parts of the UKIP->Con transfer vote are concentrated in safe Tory seats like Christchurch and Boston & Skegness (which would thus be wasted extra Tory votes), while the UKIP vote in much of the North and Midlands is splitting more evenly between the Tories and Labour.
That said, I would expect the Tories' national voteshare lead to be better than YouGov's recent polls on Election Day anyway, so even if they do underperform the level of seats that UNS indicates, they should still be on for an increased majority methinks.
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
ComRes will come out tomorrow and calm the nerves of PBTories. Hawkins is quoted in that Times article as expecting a 100 seat majority for the Tories.
The tabloids can't have any readers left to (try and) frighten.
I seriously wonder whether the increasingly hysterical coverage of what Corbyn said and did thirty years ago is proving counter-productive? Trump was (mostly truthfully) attacked endlessly.
My concern is that May fighting on Labour's ground "the good the State can do" and "the good that Government can do" ends up surrendering the strategic philosophical differences between Labour and the Tories.
Voters might conclude that if they're being offered alternate shades of left-wing rhetoric, they may as well settle for the real thing.
Haven't read it yet but are these models based on high youth turnout? I just can't see it happening, they didn't turn out for the EU referendum, they won't for this.
Will say I think a majority of 50 or so could be best case for the Tories and that is their own fault.
YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
ComRes will come out tomorrow and calm the nerves of PBTories. Hawkins is quoted in that Times article as expecting a 100 seat majority for the Tories.
PB Tories condition downgraded from "blancmange in an earthquake" to... who am I kidding, "blancmange in an earthquake"
I still don't get why the same people would flock to Labour, even with all the gimmes and the positive vision. Not in such mass proportions, without any prior indication they were interested in doing so.
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.
I think this poll is funny! Should cause some Tory bed wetting on PB.....
I don't believe any of the polls as they are manipulated and tweaked at will to make stories. The political parties in poll position may change but the narrative never does. I am just looking forward to the results, which I can look over and make my own conclusions.
Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
I think this poll is funny! Should cause some Tory bed wetting on PB.....
I don't believe any of the polls as they are manipulated and tweaked at will to make stories. The political parties in poll position may change but the narrative never does. I am just looking forward to the results, which I can look over and make my own conclusions.
It would be nice to experience this election from an average voter's perspective. We are hyper-analysing every single poll and event on here, which is a far cry from what the average voter will be doing.
Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
Never tell people the truth about difficult times.
If this is right May will go, if it is wrong it will be Stephan Shakespeare handing in his notice, getting 1 election badly wrong for a pollster is unfortunate, getting took completely wrong is untenable. With ICM giving the Tories a 12 point lead on a 2015 turnout model (unlike Yougov) one can only say the latter is very brave
He says the model worked at the referendum.
But, the referendum was a very different sort of vote.
May has to debate now or we will be led by Jeremy Corbyn.
No! She must not dance to his tune. That would be election conceded.
Surely Rudd would just play this as his u-turn?
Perhaps the debate black swan would be a barnstorming performance from Farron peeling off some a few percent of centre-right voters from the Tories while Corbyn continues to surge.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Who would be forming the next government in such an outcome?
Conservatives + DUP fall short of 326 but so do Labour + SNP + Green + Lib-Dem?
Conservative minority.
Con minority with Boris and another election in October?
I think if there was yet another election the country would revolt. Brenda from Bristol said it best.
Maybe... But the people will have voted for a Parliament that is literally ungovernable whichever way you cut the numbers and at a time of national crisis (Brexit) so whether the people like it or not if we finish up with a result anywhere close to this we're going back to the polls in six to twelve months...
If it's a Con Minority then May would likely stay on as PM whilst Con elect a new leader - thus the "PM after the election" would be May.
These are the rules
"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election"
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.
Her [Mrs May] support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
lol I had planned to not watch election night or only watch a little at the start. But if the polls continue to narrow then it's going to be a must watch.
Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Said it on the day the election was called the Conservatives will do well to get 30+ seat majority over everyone else put together. If they get 50 its very good.
I think though I have an explanation regarding the polls.
In the words of Sideshow Bob.
'Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king!'
Speaking of Democrats and republicans..Donald Trump appears to be acquiring twitter followers at a hitherto unheard of rate. Many of them have never posted. Others who don't follow him, suddenly find they have.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
"Today’s YouGov election model is based on voting intention data collected in the past week. It puts the Tories on 42 per cent, Labour on 38 per cent, Lib Dems on 9 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent."
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?
Hmmm... I just don't know. Two things are for certain: the magic that surrounded Theresa for so many months has all but evaporated, and the attempt to paint Jezza as the horrifying unelectable bogeyman never gained the traction that was envisaged. I still expect the Tories to win, but with many of their number thinking about what might have been.
Makes one ponder whether the Tories were particularly wise to dispense with the services of a leader who won them their first majority since 1992.
They didn't. He quit!
Yeah. How long did it take the one track mind Euronutters to revert to type post 2015. Maybe 3 months....I'm no fan of the EU but it seems half the Tory party are hot wired to think of nothing else. And that crass stupidity is why we are here now. Campaigning on one policy because nobody had the gumption to think normal people might be interested in other domestic issues.
Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
It does. But I'm always very wary about dismissing polling I don't like.
Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?
Seems to be mostly on focus Tory messages, with the occasional 'great response on doorstep' stuff. He had a tough ask anyway. Even discounting this projection, it's impossible now.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Eh?
I presume it means they're running the demographics of their national polls, and applying them to the demographics of each constituency.
People keep saying that the young people who are huge Corbynistas are concentrated in a few safe Labour seats -- but the reverse is also true of the Tory firewall of pensioners, the biggest numbers of them tend to be concentrated in seats which are already safe Tory.
Most polls now are showing that Labour leads with the middle-aged, and it's that age bracket which dominates in a lot of the marginal seats.
According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?
When pollsters over the channel are getting it pretty much on the nose, it's making our polling companies look like a real shambles.
"The poll allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night."
Comments
Genie is now out of the lamp.
I look forward to it. Should be fun. Better than Glumbucket.
2.1. All data and research findings made on the basis of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:
Client commissioning the survey;
Dates of interviewing;
Method of obtaining the interviews (e.g. in-person, telephone, internet)
The universe effectively represented (all adults, voters etc)
The percentages upon which conclusions are based;
Size of the sample and geographic coverage;
2.4. In addition to the information outlined above, the public opinion polling organisation responsible for conducting the survey that has entered the public domain will place the following information on its own web site within 2 working days of the data being published.
A full description of the sampling procedures adopted by the organisation
Computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published
A description of any weighting, filtering, modelling or imputation procedures that have been employed, the weighted and (where relevant) unweighted figures for all variables (demographic or otherwise) used to weight the data (irrespective of whether or not such variables appear in any tabulated analyses of the data), and the source(s) of the data used to set weighting targets.
An e-mail address for further enquiries. It is assumed that all other reasonable requests for other data, over and above the requirements specified herein, necessary for readers of the polls to assess the validity of the data will be answered
A link to the BPC web-site
In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election or referendum (including any election or referendum that has not yet been called), specify any changes to the way in which those estimates have been obtained since the company’s previous poll of those voting intentions. This includes any changes to the sampling procedures, weighting and the treatment of Don’t Knows and Refusals.
But, I don't know their method.
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Surely if she doesn't win a majority May will go? Laying her as next PM at 1.14 and backing Con maj 1.21 safe?
@Pulpstar @Pong @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi
"This is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way... "
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1131500/#Comment_1131500
Get out there and campaign!
PM Jezza, Deputy PM Robertson, and Anna Soubry as Brexit Secretary. The country would be united again.
Edited bonus content: COULSON!!!!!!#!!
It gives Corbyn the oxygen of publicity. Dangerous at a time with polls suggesting he is on the verge of entering No 10.
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.
I enjoy the therapeutic aspects of getting my hands dirty, and the garden is literally crawling with wildlife - which is what I garden for, rather than spectacular vistas, in the limited space available. My latest wheeze is building little tunnels underground, capped by old plant pots, then inspecting the network every couple of days to see how many amphibians have headed for the shade. Much the same anticipation as opening the windows on the advent calendar, great fun.
And with if you change things about in the garden in particular, you do see something new every year - this summer I saw a smooth newt mating dance for the first time. If only they had little moustaches. Ken would've loved it.
Strongly suggest, @Casino, you get the fork and trowel out. You'll feel calmer for it.
(Wonder what the gardening's like in Canada? Get the feeling winter must be pretty dire.)
That said, I would expect the Tories' national voteshare lead to be better than YouGov's recent polls on Election Day anyway, so even if they do underperform the level of seats that UNS indicates, they should still be on for an increased majority methinks.
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/869668618191110145
I seriously wonder whether the increasingly hysterical coverage of what Corbyn said and did thirty years ago is proving counter-productive? Trump was (mostly truthfully) attacked endlessly.
Voters might conclude that if they're being offered alternate shades of left-wing rhetoric, they may as well settle for the real thing.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
Will say I think a majority of 50 or so could be best case for the Tories and that is their own fault.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
You can read the article for free if you register your email address.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.
I don't believe any of the polls as they are manipulated and tweaked at will to make stories. The political parties in poll position may change but the narrative never does. I am just looking forward to the results, which I can look over and make my own conclusions.
Okay, Leeds NW, Cambridge.
Err...
If Labour wins it is because the Tories have failed. We will have no-one to blame but ourselves.
Cameron didn't go straight after EU ref.
If it's a Con Minority then May would likely stay on as PM whilst Con elect a new leader - thus the "PM after the election" would be May.
But, the referendum was a very different sort of vote.
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
Well why not? It's only going to affect the rich, right?
"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election"
They could be wrong in either direction.
https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746121561409785856
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
I'm not staying in Corbyn's Britain.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
What the PB Tories are crying out for right now is some SeanT. They say he's like ointment on the wound of the weak of night bladder.
I think though I have an explanation regarding the polls.
In the words of Sideshow Bob.
'Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king!'
Speaking of Democrats and republicans..Donald Trump appears to be acquiring twitter followers at a hitherto unheard of rate. Many of them have never posted. Others who don't follow him, suddenly find they have.
It is between ICM and YouGov.
And that crass stupidity is why we are here now. Campaigning on one policy because nobody had the gumption to think normal people might be interested in other domestic issues.
Let's forensically dissect the breakdown first.
People keep saying that the young people who are huge Corbynistas are concentrated in a few safe Labour seats -- but the reverse is also true of the Tory firewall of pensioners, the biggest numbers of them tend to be concentrated in seats which are already safe Tory.
Most polls now are showing that Labour leads with the middle-aged, and it's that age bracket which dominates in a lot of the marginal seats.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc