The ICM poll having 200 retweets and the Welsh poll 1.5k retweets in less time is an example of how twitter can warp people's perceptions of society. Probably less than 10% of voters actively post on twitter (even less will look at opinion polls) and yet it seems to provide a huge percentage of opinions deemed 'newsworthy'. If we take the ICM and Wales poll together it spells crushing Tory win, but when the latter is shared in isolation, particularly with no mention of 2015 Wales vote share then it can be used to spell a picture that Corbyn is surging and on the cusp of power.
Neatly put, Brom. It's what the twatterati wants, though, to change perceptions and to change the narrative. I don't see much or indeed any correlation between twitter and what the general public thinks, though.
We have all been guilty of massively over indulging these opinion polls, to the point of hysteria I would suggest.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
No the u turn was key, political nerds will obsess over it, the average voter who was having second thoughts on May but really did not want to vote for Corbyn will be reassured they can stick with voting for her after all
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
ICM are probably factoring differential swings in marginal seats.
A lead of 14% probably would generate a majority that was well into three figures.
Sorry Sean F but isn't there an uncharacteristic non sequitur there?
If differential swing is already factored in, shouldn't the crude UNS model work a bit better?
Or am I missing something?
There is certainly a marked difference between the current spreadbetting firms' mid-market prices and those derived by Baxtering the ICM poll figures. This is especially so as regards Labour seats where the spread firms go 171 & 174, compared with Baxter's 204, a difference of 30 or more seats, whereas the difference is much smaller in terms of Tory seats where the spread bettors go 387 compared with Baxter's projection of 371 seats, i.e. 16 fewer. I presume that Baxter is giving more wins to Labour in Scotland. Incidentally, Baxter appears to have Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, which I recently backed the Tories to win (against a perfectly split left vote) at odds of 10/1. Slightly tongue in cheek admittedly, but Baxter gives them a good chance. DYOR.
Baxter's UNS is likely to be unusually worthless this election, and certainly has no value in working out whether or not the Greens will hold their seat.
Don't forget there was a poll in Brighton Pavilion. Field dates 27th Apr - 1st May. She was polling 47%. 23% for Labour and 25% for the Tories. There will be further tactical voting for her, I am sure.
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Why on Earth is this something to be pleased about ?
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
I truly do not understand some of the thinking (and I use the term loosely) by some on this site.
Yesterday they were looking at indulging in a spot of tax avoidance to keep their inheritance intact and complaining about the cap being shelved (which they didn't understand anyway) and now they are moaning that the U- turn is going to protect the rich.
I don't wish to be rude but it is moronic. Grow up!
The alarm bell for social care funding sounded a long time ago and as a society we have to find a solution.
It has been a depressing performance on pb.com. Everything has been viewed through a dark prism -- getting one over on the other political party, or showing how a proposal can be manipulated to pay nothing.
I wish you luck in navigating the system.
From my experience with my mother, the two things that are needed are (i) private money and (ii) younger members of the family who are prepared to spend lots of time and energy arguing with the Local Authority, the NHS, the doctors and the care homes to try and get the best for elderly relatives.
Without both those, an elderly person entering our Social Care system really hasn’t much chance.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
No the u turn was key, political nerds will obsess over it, the average voter who was having second thoughts on May but really did not want to vote for Corbyn will be reassured they can stick with voting for her after all
A U-turn accompanied by Theresa May angrily shouting 'nothing has changed' at journalists? One with no substance other than a promise to publish a green paper?
More than anything this social care fiasco has shown May to be poorly prepared and not on top of her brief. This is exactly what Brussels has been saying about her and Brexit.
The only leader Brussels would consider on top of their brief was someone who paid them €100 billion Euros without complaint, kept free movement and the UK in the Single market and did not answer them back but that won't wash with British voters. In any case it at least shows May is prepared to listen and be flexible up to a point if needed
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Why on Earth is this something to be pleased about ?
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
I truly do not understand some of the thinking (and I use the term loosely) by some on this site.
Yesterday they were looking at indulging in a spot of tax avoidance to keep their inheritance intact and complaining about the cap being shelved (which they didn't understand anyway) and now they are moaning that the U- turn is going to protect the rich.
I don't wish to be rude but it is moronic. Grow up!
The alarm bell for social care funding sounded a long time ago and as a society we have to find a solution.
It has been a depressing performance on pb.com. Everything has been viewed through a dark prism -- getting one over on the other political party, or showing how a proposal can be manipulated to pay nothing.
I wish you luck in navigating the system.
From my experience with my mother, the two things that are needed are (i) private money and (ii) younger members of the family who are prepared to spend lots of time and energy arguing with the Local Authority, the NHS, the doctors and the care homes to try and get the best for elderly relatives.
Without both those, an elderly person entering our Social Care system really hasn’t much chance.
To be fair this is a site about politics and betting, which right now are both relentlessly short term, and not a forum for a long-term redesign of the social care system. Nevertheless very many of the posts on the care system, especially over the weekend, have been extremely well informed.
Why are people commemorating Jo Cox now rather than on the anniversary? Is it because that falls after the election?
I think that yesterday's tribute was a bit like a minute's silence to reflect that politics isn't worth people getting killed over. There's a lot more planned for the actual anniversary, including a lot of these: https://www.greatgettogether.org/
In the unlikely event that Labour did win, how could they possibly govern? The party does not support the leader...
I saw evidence of that changing right before my very eyes this morning when I saw the oil slick shyster himself, Umuna, on TDP. He was frothing at the mouth in indignation defending Corbyn's stance over his IRA hugging.
These guys are professional politicians in the business of securing power and votes, and would, if it meant a Labour government, support Corbyn - warts and all.
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Why on Earth is this something to be pleased about ?
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
I truly do not understand some of the thinking (and I use the term loosely) by some on this site.
Yesterday they were looking at indulging in a spot of tax avoidance to keep their inheritance intact and complaining about the cap being shelved (which they didn't understand anyway) and now they are moaning that the U- turn is going to protect the rich.
I don't wish to be rude but it is moronic. Grow up!
The alarm bell for social care funding sounded a long time ago and as a society we have to find a solution.
It has been a depressing performance on pb.com. Everything has been viewed through a dark prism -- getting one over on the other political party, or showing how a proposal can be manipulated to pay nothing.
I wish you luck in navigating the system.
From my experience with my mother, the two things that are needed are (i) private money and (ii) younger members of the family who are prepared to spend lots of time and energy arguing with the Local Authority, the NHS, the doctors and the care homes to try and get the best for elderly relatives.
Without both those, an elderly person entering our Social Care system really hasn’t much chance.
Errm my focus is on June 8th, not what is potentially happening ~10-15 years potentially in the future. Which just emphasises the point as to how daft it was to stick in a manifesto rather than green paper etc etc. This is an election campaign - and there is betting to be done on it.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
More than anything this social care fiasco has shown May to be poorly prepared and not on top of her brief. This is exactly what Brussels has been saying about her and Brexit.
The only leader Brussels would consider on top of their brief was someone who paid them €100 billion Euros without complaint, kept free movement and the UK in the Single market and did not answer them back but that won't wash with British voters. In any case it at least shows May is prepared to listen and be flexible up to a point if needed
She wobbled because she was not on top of her brief. Jeremy Corbyn - yes, Jeremy Corbyn - forced her into a climbdown. Let that sink in. Jeremy Corbyn. In Brussels they are laughing.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
Nah. The British public are too sensible to put an extremist like Corbyn into Downing Street. Amidst all this hysteria and irrationality in the middle of an election campaign, where people like us are in the middle of it all, the cool heads of the British public will prevail.
They will not risk a two trillion pound economy because of May's mid-election campaign wobble.
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
I don't know about that. But I am sure there will have been movements from ex-Labour voters in the old industrial heartlands in the M8 corridor.
However, I believe in the North of Scotland lots of Labour supporters will tactically vote for the SNP. They know they are not voting in a Independence referendum.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
14% lead with ICM today before u turn but post manifesto which would be double the Tory lead in 2015 and if Brussels do that the UK electorate will rightly say sod off Juncker and that is that!
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
Nah. The British public are too sensible to put an extremist like Corbyn into Downing Street. Amidst all this hysteria and irrationality in the middle of an election campaign, where people like us are in the middle of it all, the cool heads of the British public will prevail.
They will not risk a two trillion pound economy because of May's mid-election campaign wobble.
Because the electorate is renowned for its track record in not doing anything that might destablise the economy?
Errm my focus is on June 8th, not what is potentially happening ~10-15 years potentially in the future. Which just emphasises the point as to how daft it was to stick in a manifesto rather than green paper etc etc. This is an election campaign - and there is betting to be done on it.
But, it isn’t in the future. It is now for some people.
If you want manifestos to be judged on short-termism, fine. If you want a culture of spin and media tsunamis, fine. If you want policies to be shot down on the flimsiest & most ignorant grounds, fine.
Just don’t be too surprised when there is no Social Care system in 15 or 20 or 30 years.
I think the Welsh & Scottish "New Tories" are getting cold feet as they see what awaits them should the Tories ever take control of either Parliament. The Scottish electorate isn't going to be bought off by a temporary reprieve from the WFA pending a Unionist Regressive Alliance takeover in 2021.
The SNP are going to launch themselves as the Pensioners Protectors - SCON could easily be returning to their rightful place behind SLAB. Expect from Nicola at tomorrow's small gathering a vision of Tory Rule in Scotland - Dementia Tax, no Triple Lock, no WFA, no Bus passes, no Childrens Meals, Tuition Fees, Prescription Charges, Bedroom Tax, Disability Benefit cuts etc etc etc.
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
ICM are probably factoring differential swings in marginal seats.
A lead of 14% probably would generate a majority that was well into three figures.
Sorry Sean F but isn't there an uncharacteristic non sequitur there?
If differential swing is already factored in, shouldn't the crude UNS model work a bit better?
Or am I missing something?
There is certainly a marked difference between the current spreadbetting firms' mid-market prices and those derived by Baxtering the ICM poll figures. This is especially so as regards Labour seats where the spread firms go 171 & 174, compared with Baxter's 204, a difference of 30 or more seats, whereas the difference is much smaller in terms of Tory seats where the spread bettors go 387 compared with Baxter's projection of 371 seats, i.e. 16 fewer. I presume that Baxter is giving more wins to Labour in Scotland. Incidentally, Baxter appears to have Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, which I recently backed the Tories to win (against a perfectly split left vote) at odds of 10/1. Slightly tongue in cheek admittedly, but Baxter gives them a good chance. DYOR.
Baxter's UNS is likely to be unusually worthless this election, and certainly has no value in working out whether or not the Greens will hold their seat.
Yeah but Fisher went 178 Labour last week before all the schmozzle.
PfP is right. Labour are undersold on the spreads.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
14% lead with ICM today before u turn but post manifesto and if Brussels do that the UK electorate will rightly say sod off Juncker and that is that!
Until the movement seen in all polls abates and settles, the traffic is all one way.theyare snapshots and they are catching a moving target.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
14% lead with ICM today before u turn but post manifesto which would be double the Tory lead in 2015 and if Brussels do that the UK electorate will rightly say sod off Juncker and that is that!
Today's ICM has been kind of ignored amid all the hubbub...
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
- Tories win, but May's authority shot - Labour loses but Corbyn stays, completes party takeover
The next Tory govt is going to be v interesting to watch, although perhaps best viewed on fast forward. It's more or less built on two lies: that T May is akin to W Churchill, and that the Tories are the party of Brexit. The slow unravelling of these myths suggests to me that May won't make it as PM as far as the next election.
I'm sure Corbyn and McDonnell already see this election campaign as a great triumph. Corbyn remains utterly unsuitable to lead the party or the country and yet I'd say the chance of his resigning on 9th June is virtually nil. Nick Cohen has just admitted on FB that he's got writer's block as he tries to pen "What next for Labour?" The Common Sense wing is stuck, and I think they/we should just go on holiday for a year and then come back and take stock. In other words, the campaign-time truce will hold for some time. The two sides have found that they can work together in extremis. I don't foresee a Momentum takeover; I think that, on the contrary, JC will hold out an olive branch and a few rebels will take it. This will allow the removal of the worst of his current front bench, e.g. D Abbott. There'll be no split. Energy will be saved for when JC steps down, which I assume will be in 2-3 years.
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
I don't know about that. But I am sure there will have been movements from ex-Labour voters in the old industrial heartlands in the M8 corridor.
However, I believe in the North of Scotland lots of Labour supporters will tactically vote for the SNP. They know they are not voting in a Independence referendum.
The better Corbyn does, the more they will fear Sturgeon having him in her vice like. The same applies in E and W.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
More than anything this social care fiasco has shown May to be poorly prepared and not on top of her brief. This is exactly what Brussels has been saying about her and Brexit.
The only leader Brussels would consider on top of their brief was someone who paid them €100 billion Euros without complaint, kept free movement and the UK in the Single market and did not answer them back but that won't wash with British voters. In any case it at least shows May is prepared to listen and be flexible up to a point if needed
She wobbled because she was not on top of her brief. Jeremy Corbyn - yes, Jeremy Corbyn - forced her into a climbdown. Let that sink in. Jeremy Corbyn. In Brussels they are laughing.
No it was more to do with not considering the political fallout enough, as a manifesto for government it was very detailed and on residential care at least an improvement. Brussels can do what it likes May will walk if necessary with the British people behind her, €100 billion Euros is a non starter
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
Taking bets?
Until I know whether I will be hit by the WFA Freeze The Pensioners means test I can't commit any money , sorry .
i was hoping for settlement before Xmas. I could take a charge on your home until then though... expect we've learned you don't have one.... not looking a great counterparty risk then!
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
I don't know about that. But I am sure there will have been movements from ex-Labour voters in the old industrial heartlands in the M8 corridor.
However, I believe in the North of Scotland lots of Labour supporters will tactically vote for the SNP. They know they are not voting in a Independence referendum.
The better Corbyn does, the more they will fear Sturgeon having him in her vice like. The same applies in E and W.
Personally, I do not believe that one will work this time.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
14% lead with ICM today before u turn but post manifesto which would be double the Tory lead in 2015 and if Brussels do that the UK electorate will rightly say sod off Juncker and that is that!
Today's ICM has been kind of ignored amid all the hubbub...
Exactly 47% Tory rating today would be the highest since Macmillan in 1959
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.
Wouldn't it be more fun to identify politicians as members of the Dad's Army cast?
Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
On what basis, weekend polls still had a swing against Labour in Scotland and against the SNP and the Tories on 28%+
Yes, I think the Tory strength in Scotland has stonger foundations, it's been building for a while under a popular leader. Having said that, Ruth did take a few hits in the debate, and the lovely Kezia is starting to look more impressive (admittedly from a low base) so I expect the Tory lead over Labour to narrow a notch.
The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent. She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.
14% lead with ICM today before u turn but post manifesto and if Brussels do that the UK electorate will rightly say sod off Juncker and that is that!
Until the movement seen in all polls abates and settles, the traffic is all one way.theyare snapshots and they are catching a moving target.
A moving target who with ICM is polling higher than any Tory leader for over 50 years
I think the Welsh & Scottish "New Tories" are getting cold feet as they see what awaits them should the Tories ever take control of either Parliament. The Scottish electorate isn't going to be bought off by a temporary reprieve from the WFA pending a Unionist Regressive Alliance takeover in 2021.
The SNP are going to launch themselves as the Pensioners Protectors - SCON could easily be returning to their rightful place behind SLAB. Expect from Nicola at tomorrow's small gathering a vision of Tory Rule in Scotland - Dementia Tax, no Triple Lock, no WFA, no Bus passes, no Childrens Meals, Tuition Fees, Prescription Charges, Bedroom Tax, Disability Benefit cuts etc etc etc.
Don't know why this site worships ICM so much when they hardly smashed the last election. It was even an ICM poll which showed Labour ahead by about 2 or so points in the last stage of the campaign.
In the EU referendum it was Survation who polled closest to the result.
Nick Timothy needs to be cancelled.
May running government around her advisors is not a strategy unique to her - Cameron and Osborne did it as well. Though I think looking at New Labour and post 2010 Conservative governments government by SpAd has been tried and tested to destruction.
The worry for May isn't that she'll lose the GE. The worry is far bigger than that, it's clear that she is has nowhere near the competence to negotiate a good Brexit deal. Neither does Corbyn. Britain's poor leaders will lead the country off a cliff.
Any chance this is just some elaborate ploy to narrow the polls a tad, send corbynites wild, then roundly thrash them on the 8th June?
Just a thought.
Yes, undoubtedly it's a cunning plan to lull the opposition into a false sense of security.
Once she has them precisely where she wants them, Mrs May will demonstrate some competence.
Not even the Thick of It writers would come up with this:
1. We'll make up a policy on social care which deliberately leaves a ticking bomb in the middle of it, which will be picked up by the press within minutes and will cause a crash in the polls and a near riot on the doorsteps
2. When every potential Tory voter is going Oh My God I can't vote for the Dementia Tax but I don't want Corbyn, but look at the polls, Corbyn is going to win - panic, panic - we do a u-turn on the Monday
3. Fear of God that Corbyn could win spreads and Tories return to the fold.
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
On what basis, weekend polls still had a swing against Labour in Scotland and against the SNP and the Tories on 28%+
The polls are still moving . There has not been a full Scottish poll for a little while . Yes the Yougov sub sample had Con at 28 . ICM's has them back at 23 .
I think the episode tells us a few things, not all of them specifically concerning the SNP. First, Twitter can be awful, especially during referendums and election campaigns. Second, the SNP's persistent claims that only a fringe element are responsible for bad behaviour online are increasingly threadbare, not least because on this occasion the fringe included party branches, candidates and staff. Third, the SNP is no longer unassailable: the invincibility has gone, and it's increasingly prone to gaffes such as last night's. Fourth, a decade in devolved government – with all its strains and policy challenges – is finally catching up with the Scottish government. Keeping all the people happy all the time was always going to be subject to the law of diminishing returns.
As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing..
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing..
1945 isn't really a good example - with hindsight it was obvious that a 'win the peace' and let's not bring back the 1930s' mood was going to deliver a Labour win; this came as a surprise simply because there wasn't the media and polling paraphernalia we have today, and because of all the immediate post-war disruption. 1970 is an interesting one, however.
As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing..
1945 isn't really a good example - with hindsight it was obvious that a 'win the peace' and let's not bring back the 1930s' mood was going to deliver a Labour win; this came as a surprise simply because there wasn't the media and polling paraphernalia we have today, and because of all the immediate post-war disruption. 1970 is an interesting one, however.
Heart's Tories had made big by election gains unlike Corbyn and Heath ultimately was far more centrist than Corbyn and got 46%, Corbyn is nowhere near that score
I would not be surprised if Labour moved back into 2nd place in Scotland in the next week or so .
On what basis, weekend polls still had a swing against Labour in Scotland and against the SNP and the Tories on 28%+
The polls are still moving . There has not been a full Scottish poll for a little while . Yes the Yougov sub sample had Con at 28 . ICM's has them back at 23 .
As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing..
1945 isn't really a good example - with hindsight it was obvious that a 'win the peace' and let's not bring back the 1930s' mood was going to deliver a Labour win; this came as a surprise simply because there wasn't the media and polling paraphernalia we have today, and because of all the immediate post-war disruption. 1970 is an interesting one, however.
Heart's Tories had made big by election gains unlike Corbyn and Heath ultimately was far more centrist than Corbyn and got 46%, Corbyn is nowhere near that score
Actually opinion polls predicted Labour's ascendancy in 1945. One in February put the Tories on 24 and Labour on 42, while another in April had the Tories on the same sorry 24, and Labour on 40. But the sheer force of Churchill's mighty personality meant that the findings were largely ignored.
One more boring historical analogy, of which I have direct personal experience. In 1992 John Smith introduced his Shadow Budget which was meant to establish Labour's "strong and stable" fiscal credentials. Soon afterwards, the IFS declared that 8 out of 10 people would be better off under Smith's plan, a figure trumpeted by Labour campaigners. But it did not wash with the electorate who only saw more taxes, more spending and more benefits, thereby reinforcing the worst perceptions of Kinnock's party and giving rise to the famous Tory "double whammy" poster. I remember all this well because I was working for Harriet Harman at the time. My heart sank when Smith announced his benefit and tax increases. I just knew they would not appeal. The imagery was all wrong. Sounds vaguely familiar.
As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing..
1945 isn't really a good example - with hindsight it was obvious that a 'win the peace' and let's not bring back the 1930s' mood was going to deliver a Labour win; this came as a surprise simply because there wasn't the media and polling paraphernalia we have today, and because of all the immediate post-war disruption. 1970 is an interesting one, however.
February 1974 - a premature dissolution, a supposed single issue campaign, the government ahead in the polls throughout. On the day - defeat. I remember well - it was an absolute shocker.
Still not budging from my central forecast of a 95 seat majority for Theresa Meh. All this stuff will turn out to be froth, in the final analysis, I reckon.
Comments
https://twitter.com/profchalmers/status/866683704810360833
And we'll be back at the polls for another general election within six months. Won't that be fun?
- Tories win, but May's authority shot
- Labour loses but Corbyn stays, completes party takeover
So that's a huge intervention.
We have all been guilty of massively over indulging these opinion polls, to the point of hysteria I would suggest.
She was polling 47%. 23% for Labour and 25% for the Tories. There will be further tactical voting for her, I am sure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
I wish you luck in navigating the system.
From my experience with my mother, the two things that are needed are (i) private money and (ii) younger members of the family who are prepared to spend lots of time and energy arguing with the Local Authority, the NHS, the doctors and the care homes to try and get the best for elderly relatives.
Without both those, an elderly person entering our Social Care system really hasn’t much chance.
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
These guys are professional politicians in the business of securing power and votes, and would, if it meant a Labour government, support Corbyn - warts and all.
Which just emphasises the point as to how daft it was to stick in a manifesto rather than green paper etc etc. This is an election campaign - and there is betting to be done on it.
She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/145894/Gordon-Brown-dons-flak-jacket-as-he-meets-the-troops
Sparrow may be right, he usually is - she still looks like a big girls blouse though.
They will not risk a two trillion pound economy because of May's mid-election campaign wobble.
However, I believe in the North of Scotland lots of Labour supporters will tactically vote for the SNP. They know they are not voting in a Independence referendum.
If you want manifestos to be judged on short-termism, fine. If you want a culture of spin and media tsunamis, fine. If you want policies to be shot down on the flimsiest & most ignorant grounds, fine.
Just don’t be too surprised when there is no Social Care system in 15 or 20 or 30 years.
The SNP are going to launch themselves as the Pensioners Protectors - SCON could easily be returning to their rightful place behind SLAB. Expect from Nicola at tomorrow's small gathering a vision of Tory Rule in Scotland - Dementia Tax, no Triple Lock, no WFA, no Bus passes, no Childrens Meals, Tuition Fees, Prescription Charges, Bedroom Tax, Disability Benefit cuts etc etc etc.
Still looks an uphill sfruggle
PfP is right. Labour are undersold on the spreads.
Just a thought.
Once she has them precisely where she wants them, Mrs May will demonstrate some competence.
"Theresa May pledges an 'absolute limit' on social care costs in desperate U-turn as pensioner fury threatens to hand Corbyn election lifeline."
Compare this last Friday's front page on "Bravery"
I'm sure Corbyn and McDonnell already see this election campaign as a great triumph. Corbyn remains utterly unsuitable to lead the party or the country and yet I'd say the chance of his resigning on 9th June is virtually nil. Nick Cohen has just admitted on FB that he's got writer's block as he tries to pen "What next for Labour?" The Common Sense wing is stuck, and I think they/we should just go on holiday for a year and then come back and take stock. In other words, the campaign-time truce will hold for some time. The two sides have found that they can work together in extremis. I don't foresee a Momentum takeover; I think that, on the contrary, JC will hold out an olive branch and a few rebels will take it. This will allow the removal of the worst of his current front bench, e.g. D Abbott. There'll be no split. Energy will be saved for when JC steps down, which I assume will be in 2-3 years.
Roger Scully's article.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
Mr. Gin, cheers for posting that. I was wonder what the ICM poll had said.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/866693005293572096
And you're right, the British people will be right behind her. With pitchforks.
Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
In the EU referendum it was Survation who polled closest to the result.
Nick Timothy needs to be cancelled.
May running government around her advisors is not a strategy unique to her - Cameron and Osborne did it as well. Though I think looking at New Labour and post 2010 Conservative governments government by SpAd has been tried and tested to destruction.
The worry for May isn't that she'll lose the GE. The worry is far bigger than that, it's clear that she is has nowhere near the competence to negotiate a good Brexit deal. Neither does Corbyn. Britain's poor leaders will lead the country off a cliff.
1. We'll make up a policy on social care which deliberately leaves a ticking bomb in the middle of it, which will be picked up by the press within minutes and will cause a crash in the polls and a near riot on the doorsteps
2. When every potential Tory voter is going Oh My God I can't vote for the Dementia Tax but I don't want Corbyn, but look at the polls, Corbyn is going to win - panic, panic - we do a u-turn on the Monday
3. Fear of God that Corbyn could win spreads and Tories return to the fold.
NEW THREAD
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/05/22/smears-against-snp-critic-show-it-s-not-just-fringe-elements
I fear a surge from 7:30pm after the Andrew Neil/Theresa May interview.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.