We have a party pushing for Government with a leader that it's own MPs overwhelmingly think is not even up to the job of being their leader.... it certainly is a character thing.
I'm not sure which party you are referring to. Labour, Conservative, LibDem? Increasingly the statement could apply to all three ;-)
We have a party pushing for Government with a leader that its own MPs overwhelmingly think is not even up to the job of being their leader.... it certainly is a character thing.
Very honest of you to describe the Tory Party like that Scrapheap!
Badaboom-tish
For the hard of memory:
The 172-40 vote, which is not binding, follows resignations from the shadow cabinet and calls on Mr Corbyn to quit.
Wales seeing a 10% swing in 3 weeks, that's extraordinary
Indeed it is, that's why it has raised eyebrows. Huge movements usually settle back down. Look at the Tory lead since the beginning of the election campaign for proof of this.
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
Actually, when I entered the national figures only, I also saw 134. However, in the 4th column, Pred. Votes, the 47/33/9/4/2 was not coming up. It became 44.8, 31.4, 8.6....
It was then I realised something may not be correct.
Thanks Surbiton. I don't expect too many misplaced bets went on as a consequence of the oversite anyway.
Anyway on Fisher and current polling ( i.e. excluding the polling yet to come which Conservatives would expect to be more favorable than seen recently) we'd expect in the region of, say, 200 Labour seats. Yes?
If that's right, no need to close my spread positions yet.
No change between Labour and Tories in terms of the vote split.
Plaid, Lib Dems down.
Hard to know how much the LDs are down, as they only polled 6.5% last time. With Plaid down more, they have to feel fairly confident of holding onto Ceridgion.
Trying to understand the mindset of Corbyn and his demented followers. In their eyes, they have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to overthrow the system they say is 'rigged' against them.
So what is to stop them doing everything and anything they possibly can to try and achieve this? Why not sign up to online pollsters en masse to in an attempt to 'game' the polls - granted difficult to do with phone pollsters - or do they have to be registered too?
Why not just be utterly dishonest with the manifesto promises and spend hundreds of billions of pounds that do not exist?
I suggest there is nothing whatsoever they will not try to concoct over the next few weeks to achieve their ultimate aim and bankrupt the capitalist economy (paradoxically wiping out their fantasy promises at the same time).
Given that I have a postal vote (due tomorrow) I've just got my election leaflets from Theresa and Labour.
The above is explicit as NO mention of the Conservative party can be found on the message from Theresa May Prime Minister.
The labour one covers localish issues with a claim they will fight NHS and Education cuts. No details on how they will do that though... And the NHS issues are currently being increased by local government idiocy - who stated we need A&E as traffic is a nightmare in rush hours - ignoring the fact we are the A&E department for a lot of the Yorkshire Dales who have to battle the same traffic to get people to A&E...
Where I live Labour leaflets don't mention Corbyn and Tory leaflets are full of TM with only a passing mention of Conservatives. Labour leaflets say NHS is under threat, they were saying that 30 odd years ago, it's wearing very thin, they will have some people convinced already but there'll be no chance of convincing any more voters.
Tipping up long odds on shots seems to be popular on here, you can back UKIP to not win a seat at 1.07 for over a grand on betfair. Not my type of bet but it will pay for a few beers and an Indian.
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
Actually, when I entered the national figures only, I also saw 134. However, in the 4th column, Pred. Votes, the 47/33/9/4/2 was not coming up. It became 44.8, 31.4, 8.6....
It was then I realised something may not be correct.
Thanks Surbiton. I don't expect too many misplaced bets went on as a consequence of the oversite anyway.
Anyway on Fisher and current polling ( i.e. excluding the polling yet to come which Conservatives would expect to be more favorable than seen recently) we'd expect in the region of, say, 200 Labour seats. Yes?
If that's right, no need to close my spread positions yet.
My current hunch would be about 190, sharply up from 170 I had in mind even last week.
Labour has to maintain the posture that IT CANNOT WIN. CORBYN CANNOT BE PM.
Given that I have a postal vote (due tomorrow) I've just got my election leaflets from Theresa and Labour.
The above is explicit as NO mention of the Conservative party can be found on the message from Theresa May Prime Minister.
The labour one covers localish issues with a claim they will fight NHS and Education cuts. No details on how they will do that though... And the NHS issues are currently being increased by local government idiocy - who stated we need A&E as traffic is a nightmare in rush hours - ignoring the fact we are the A&E department for a lot of the Yorkshire Dales who have to battle the same traffic to get people to A&E...
Where I live Labour leaflets don't mention Corbyn and Tory leaflets are full of TM with only a passing mention of Conservatives. Labour leaflets say NHS is under threat, they were saying that 30 odd years ago, it's wearing very thin, they will have some people convinced already but there'll be no chance of convincing any more voters.
We've got Nick Gibb standing with Theresa May posters down here. No mention of the Conservative Party. Dunno why not. Still had a whopping majority in 1997. Ego and hubris I suppose.
Why are Labour longer in Clwyd South than in Vale of Clwyd ?!
I think they struggle trying to price up 700 or so markets they don't do as a day job. I'm maxed out on Ynys Mon now. Would load up on Cardiff Central at 4/5 but running out of funds and still over 2 weeks to go.
Why are Labour longer in Clwyd South than in Vale of Clwyd ?!
I think they struggle trying to price up 700 or so markets they don't do as a day job. I'm maxed out on Ynys Mon now. Would load up on Cardiff Central at 4/5 but running out of funds and still over 2 weeks to go.
My position in the Gower is looking a bit on the shit side, but I think Byron should be able to hang on !
Is it just my imagination but I haven't seen any real scrutiny of Labour's policies by the media. They have now scrapped tuition fees from September, this from the party that introduced them. Now that is a U-TURN.
No, there's no scrutiny of Labour plans at all but that's mainly because the Tories have blown themselves up the Death Tax and changes to WFA.
The repeal of the ivory ban is another completely ludicrous entry in the Tory hamifesto. Now May has a high-profile anti-ivory campaigner in the form of Kevin Pietersen on her ass. It looks like a joke, but it could actually cause her some more problems (and the policy is clearly morally wrong – why FFS?)
There is no repeal of the ivory ban in the Tory manifesto...
I've never understood why governments cant harvest the ivory. If you could tranquilize the elephants and cut off most of the tusks you could increase supply so the value of what was left on the elephant wasnt worth poaching.
I'm sure I must be missing something though else it would be happening.
I've been told it's that the Chinese won't buy farmed rhino horn or ivory because apparently the lack of pain and suffering makes it harder for them to get a hard on. Or something.
(But this is just a technical adjustment to do with the sale of ivory pieces made pre 1947. Nothing to do with killing elephants).
This poll was conducted during/after Leanne Wood was on the telly.
Given the fact a majority of PBers wanted to get into her knickers just so they could hear her "silky valleys lilt" I dare say she has got the male political anorak vote sewn up.
Did you enjoy Trump's locker room banter or were you outraged at his vile sexism?
Our new poll was also conducted in the aftermath of the ITV Welsh Leaders’ debate, while much of the fieldwork also occurred in the period after Thursday’s Britain-wide five-party televised debate.
Much but not all. The true swingback could be a bit bigger still.
Is it just my imagination but I haven't seen any real scrutiny of Labour's policies by the media. They have now scrapped tuition fees from September, this from the party that introduced them. Now that is a U-TURN.
No, there's no scrutiny of Labour plans at all but that's mainly because the Tories have blown themselves up the Death Tax and changes to WFA.
No, it's because Corbyn's so lacking in credibility that the silliness of the Labour manifesto was already factored into the narrative. There was always going to be more scrutiny of the Tory manifesto because they are the party who will actually be getting to implement theirs.
It's in everyone's interest who wishes to see a more exciting race to try and bring the leader down a peg or two, and the media's latching onto the dementia stuff has certainly done that.
Tipping up long odds on shots seems to be popular on here, you can back UKIP to not win a seat at 1.07 for over a grand on betfair. Not my type of bet but it will pay for a few beers and an Indian.
ok labour hold ynys mon at 12/1 if you prefer better odds.
Wales poll suggests there's some value in the constituency betting and the regional polls were pretty accurate in GE2015.The Tories are overpriced and Newport East has Labour at 6-5 and West 10-3.There are a few LD-Lab contests where the LDs are overbet,Cambridge in England being a good example,although Labour has come in from 4-1 to 3-1,and Cardiff Central is another with value with Labour at 11-10 after this poll.
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
Is it just my imagination but I haven't seen any real scrutiny of Labour's policies by the media. They have now scrapped tuition fees from September, this from the party that introduced them. Now that is a U-TURN.
No, there's no scrutiny of Labour plans at all but that's mainly because the Tories have blown themselves up the Death Tax and changes to WFA.
No, it's because Corbyn's so lacking in credibility that the silliness of the Labour manifesto was already factored into the narrative. There was always going to be more scrutiny of the Tory manifesto because they are the party who will actually be getting to implement theirs.
It's in everyone's interest who wishes to see a more exciting race to try and bring the leader down a peg or two, and the media's latching onto the dementia stuff has certainly done that.
When we had the manifesto breaking budget and all the pain of backtracking on NI policy I suggested that chancellors should be given a clusterfuck control checklist to tick off before they finalise a budget. I am now going to suggest a manifesto clusterfuck control checklist is also drafted. Would be good.
Wales poll suggests there's some value in the constituency betting and the regional polls were pretty accurate in GE2015.The Tories are overpriced and Newport East has Labour at 6-5 and West 10-3.There are a few LD-Lab contests where the LDs are overbet,Cambridge in England being a good example,although Labour has come in from 4-1 to 3-1,and Cardiff Central is another with value with Labour at 11-10 after this poll.
Tricky to tell precisely where the Con/Lab position is in Labour. I expect a small swing to the Tories still.
What is clear though is that Plaid and the Lib Dems there are in for a hiding.
Tipping up long odds on shots seems to be popular on here, you can back UKIP to not win a seat at 1.07 for over a grand on betfair. Not my type of bet but it will pay for a few beers and an Indian.
She looks weak, the polls are shifting and they are failing to put any spotlight on Labour's plans, I'd expect Tory certainty to vote and May's ratings to get mullered over this and I think the spreads where they are are hopelessly optimistic for the blues. I'm betting accordingly, and Labour will hold Ynys mon with their eyes Shut!
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Well, I guess that's the end of all this stuff where Cons are trying to take previously safe Lab seats and they go back to traditional marginals and just winning overall, forget the landslide froth.
So we all know Labour's great failing is running out of money and the Tory's is Europe...
So 2010 we saw Labour run out of money and leave it to the Tory / Lib dems to sort the mess out.... and to then criticise from the sidelines.
2017 is it the Tory turn to lose the election so Labour / Lib Dems / SNP get to sort the Brexit mess out with Europe and then the Blues be ready to criticise from the sideline?
A nice symmetry if the worst should happen (which it won't but...)
She looks weak, the polls are shifting and they are failing to put any spotlight on Labour's plans, I'd expect Tory certainty to vote and May's ratings to get mullered over this and I think the spreads where they are are hopelessly optimistic for the blues. I'm betting accordingly, and Labour will hold Ynys mon with their eyes Shut!
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
Because the cap refers to the maximum that local authorities will pay for care costs and what the government has determined as the maximum for food and lodging.
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Why on Earth is this something to be pleased about ?
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
She looks weak, the polls are shifting and they are failing to put any spotlight on Labour's plans, I'd expect Tory certainty to vote and May's ratings to get mullered over this and I think the spreads where they are are hopelessly optimistic for the blues. I'm betting accordingly, and Labour will hold Ynys mon with their eyes Shut!
She needs the next few weeks spotlight on labour policies and then the weak bit might fade at the voting box.
Could GE2017 be the October revolution to Brexit's February revolution?
Don't kid yourself that people are backing down on Brexit...
That's not the implication of my comment.
Now is not the time for people to have second thoughts about Brexit, but in their hubris and complacency, perhaps now is the time to give the establishment an even bigger shock by putting Corbyn in a position to form a government.
Wales poll suggests there's some value in the constituency betting and the regional polls were pretty accurate in GE2015.The Tories are overpriced and Newport East has Labour at 6-5 and West 10-3.There are a few LD-Lab contests where the LDs are overbet,Cambridge in England being a good example,although Labour has come in from 4-1 to 3-1,and Cardiff Central is another with value with Labour at 11-10 after this poll.
Tricky to tell precisely where the Con/Lab position is in Labour. I expect a small swing to the Tories still.
What is clear though is that Plaid and the Lib Dems there are in for a hiding.
That depends on whether we are seeing people moving against the Tories, or positively moving towards Labour? PC and the LibDems have so few targets in Wales that there won't be enough samples in the polls to show up, or tell how things are going in these seats. Nevertheless if their campaigns are good enough they should be able to mop up a good proportion of the anti-Tory voters.
She looks weak, the polls are shifting and they are failing to put any spotlight on Labour's plans, I'd expect Tory certainty to vote and May's ratings to get mullered over this and I think the spreads where they are are hopelessly optimistic for the blues. I'm betting accordingly, and Labour will hold Ynys mon with their eyes Shut!
She looks weak, the polls are shifting and they are failing to put any spotlight on Labour's plans, I'd expect Tory certainty to vote and May's ratings to get mullered over this and I think the spreads where they are are hopelessly optimistic for the blues. I'm betting accordingly, and Labour will hold Ynys mon with their eyes Shut!
best price 10s now.
Who has them at 10?
betfred according to oddschecker. and winner.co.uk but i dont know much about them.
Could GE2017 be the October revolution to Brexit's February revolution?
Don't kid yourself that people are backing down on Brexit...
That's not the implication of my comment.
Now is not the time for people to have second thoughts about Brexit, but in their hubris and complacency, perhaps now is the time to give the establishment an even bigger shock by putting Corbyn in a position to form a government.
I expect to see a total collapse in May's approval ratings, Corbyn's should jump up nicely.
This is the main reason that he and other figures in London Labour more generally, such as Ken Livingstone, were into the Irish question so much. They're politicians.
You're making the mistaken assumption that the Irish community was pro-IRA. They weren't. Irishmen like my father and the rest of my family were ashamed and heartbroken at what men like Adams did to the name of Ireland and Irish nationalism. Their contempt for the fools like Corbyn who sucked up to men of violence was vitriolic.
People like Corbyn were into this because their enemy's enemy was their friend. That's all.
The IRA question is relevant not to the Irish question now but to Corbyn's judgment and moral compass. Just as his association with Holocaust deniers is. It's relevant because it gives us a clue as to how he will behave when faced with terrorists now who want to harm us and the British state.
That is the issue and it is an issue which the Nick Palmers of this world with their disingenuous "oh it's all a long time ago" and "oh he happened to be standing in the same room" nonsense deliberately ignore.
Corbyn and Abbott and McDonnell cannot be trusted with the security of this country and its citizens. And the security of this country is the primary and most important role of government.
I was thrown out of a meeting in Islington in the 1980s for calling the IRA what they were: fascist. Some working class women from West Belfast sought me out a week later to say they admired me for what I'd said. There is a scale between 1) humouring English lefties because they "express solidarity" with you, even if they say NI is like the Lebanon, and 2) the far rarer experience of meeting English lefties who grasp that living in Derry or West Belfast under the heel of a heavily tooled-up "anyone who disagrees with us is a tout" IRA power structure - objectively impossible to speak up against in that locality - is a nightmare that anyone in their right mind wants to get out of. For some Irish people it was 1) that determined how they voted. 2) hasn't got much to do with politics.
The way for Labour to win votes in Archway was to chum up with Sinn Fein. Who ran the building sites?
Anyway it was far easier for the IRA to drop their Armalites once they had adopted a policy of Armalite plus ballot box. I imagine the mandarins - some of whom were genned up on Malaya, Africa, etc. - welcomed the left Labour links with Sinn Fein.
Corbyn could have made pals with more profound enemies of the English elite - such as the striking miners. Some visited the borough and there was a lot of discussion as to how people could support them. Corbyn took the line - in 1984, only a year after the 1983 election - that the best way to support the miners was to go all out for a Labour victory at the next general election! He is a party man through and through.
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
ICM are probably factoring differential swings in marginal seats.
A lead of 14% probably would generate a majority that was well into three figures.
Sorry Sean F but isn't there an uncharacteristic non sequitur there?
If differential swing is already factored in, shouldn't the crude UNS model work a bit better?
Or am I missing something?
There is certainly a marked difference between the current spreadbetting firms' mid-market prices and those derived by Baxtering the ICM poll figures. This is especially so as regards Labour seats where the spread firms go 171 & 174, compared with Baxter's 204, a difference of 30 or more seats, whereas the difference is much smaller in terms of Tory seats where the spread bettors go 387 compared with Baxter's projection of 371 seats, i.e. 16 fewer. I presume that Baxter is giving more wins to Labour in Scotland. Incidentally, Baxter appears to have Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, which I recently backed the Tories to win (against a perfectly split left vote) at odds of 10/1. Slightly tongue in cheek admittedly, but Baxter gives them a good chance. DYOR.
Is there anybody in the Cabinet actually impressing anybody? Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months. Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
Could GE2017 be the October revolution to Brexit's February revolution?
Don't kid yourself that people are backing down on Brexit...
That's not the implication of my comment.
Now is not the time for people to have second thoughts about Brexit, but in their hubris and complacency, perhaps now is the time to give the establishment an even bigger shock by putting Corbyn in a position to form a government.
Oh right. Well it was always a risk that people might go even further with the Brexit revolution and turn to Corbyn though I have a feeling things will start to turn back to the Con's as we near the finishing post.
It looks almost certain that TM will finish this election more damaged than she was at the start though... Will she be gone in a few months?
It takes a spectacular level of incompetence to grant a surge to a far left leader who doesn't even have the support of his own MPs. This isn't over, it's not even close to being over, the bubble is bursting and the fallout cannot be predicted
Dilnot now suggesting a cap might only cost 2 or 3 £bn a year - hugely less than the estimates floating around yesterday.
That surely depends where the cap is put ?
For sure. The way he spoke it sounded like he was referring to his original proposal, which PB'ers yesterday were estimating at up to £20bn. I am surprised he can cost what he proposed as low as that, although of course the 'catch' was that what he defined as care costs was only a proportion of the care costs people actually have to pay, as there was a significant deduction for 'regular' living costs.
The problem will be for TM is that under the proposals before the U-turn, in theory, some rich person could have spent vast sums of money. Now they will be saved as surely TM could not say something like £1m. Even if she says £50k or £100k, the bill for the government will be racking up.
Why on Earth is this something to be pleased about ?
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
I truly do not understand some of the thinking (and I use the term loosely) by some on this site.
Yesterday they were looking at indulging in a spot of tax avoidance to keep their inheritance intact and complaining about the cap being shelved (which they didn't understand anyway) and now they are moaning that the U- turn is going to protect the rich.
I don't wish to be rude but it is moronic. Grow up!
The alarm bell for social care funding sounded a long time ago and as a society we have to find a solution.
Is there anybody in the Cabinet actually impressing anybody? Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months. Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
@ScottyNational: News: SNP's manifesto launch likely to be delayed due to the time taken to tipex out the words 'nurses', 'foodbanks' and 'independence'
Wales poll suggests there's some value in the constituency betting and the regional polls were pretty accurate in GE2015.The Tories are overpriced and Newport East has Labour at 6-5 and West 10-3.There are a few LD-Lab contests where the LDs are overbet,Cambridge in England being a good example,although Labour has come in from 4-1 to 3-1,and Cardiff Central is another with value with Labour at 11-10 after this poll.
cheers pete. already on in cardiff central but added some newport west to the mix.
More than anything this social care fiasco has shown May to be poorly prepared and not on top of her brief. This is exactly what Brussels has been saying about her and Brexit.
Tory own polling was probably picking up this as well.
No wonder there was a u-turn.
Yup. Government by focus group.
Not really... If that was the case they'd have focused grouped these changes, realized they would go down like a bowl of cold sick and not touched any of this with a barge pole.
Theresa May attacks Jeremy Corbyn's "fake claims" about her social care policy. 3 times. Clearly spending too much time holding hands with Trump
Soon she'll be saying it wasn't her policy but Labour's!
Can she handle this tactic despite having no background in "reality" TV or wrestling, and no personality cult? Can she pull it off with just the shoes and hairstyle?
Is there anybody in the Cabinet actually impressing anybody? Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months. Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
Mordaunt?! Her attitude to parliamentary democracy is cock!
Is there anybody in the Cabinet actually impressing anybody? Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months. Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
David Davis has been quite good I think...
I thought Hammond was on holiday with Diane? Has he been seen?
The ICM poll having 200 retweets and the Welsh poll 1.5k retweets in less time is an example of how twitter can warp people's perceptions of society. Probably less than 10% of voters actively post on twitter (even less will look at opinion polls) and yet it seems to provide a huge percentage of opinions deemed 'newsworthy'. If we take the ICM and Wales poll together it spells crushing Tory win, but when the latter is shared in isolation, particularly with no mention of 2015 Wales vote share then it can be used to spell a picture that Corbyn is surging and on the cusp of power.
Is there anybody in the Cabinet actually impressing anybody? Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months. Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
David Davis has been quite good I think...
He's by far the best and has been underused this campaign.
They should consider getting the best man at Pippa Middleton's wedding to do the Andrew Neil interview. From the sounds of it he'd take it in his stride:
"Now to the love of James' life: beautiful, energetic, loyal, soft-mouthed, comes on command, great behind. But that is enough about James' spaniel, Rafa...I wish the bride and groom a happy honeymoon in North Wales. At least that's where I presume they are going as I heard Spencer saying that after the wedding, James was going to Bangor for two weeks."
Tory own polling was probably picking up this as well.
No wonder there was a u-turn.
Yup. Government by focus group.
Not really... If that was the case they'd have focused grouped these changes, realized they would go down like a bowl of cold sick and not touched any of this with a barge pole.
Team May were arrogant and thought this election was unloseable hence the last minute addition/change on social care by Nick Timothy.
There wasn't time to focus group it before it was announced.
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
Yes, I thought there was something a bit wrong there - not quite Abbotesque but not exactly Carol Vorderman either.
Fisher had Labour on 178 before the recent run of better polls for them so you would have expected some uplift since. Of course I'm aware that now there has been a U-Turn it's as if nothing ever happened and we all need to calibrate our estimates back to the time before the unfortunate manifesto error happened, but to Baxter on current polling numbers rather than those which will appear soon now that normality has been restored must produce something like your figures above, surely?
ICM are probably factoring differential swings in marginal seats.
A lead of 14% probably would generate a majority that was well into three figures.
Sorry Sean F but isn't there an uncharacteristic non sequitur there?
If differential swing is already factored in, shouldn't the crude UNS model work a bit better?
Or am I missing something?
There is certainly a marked difference between the current spreadbetting firms' mid-market prices and those derived by Baxtering the ICM poll figures. This is especially so as regards Labour seats where the spread firms go 171 & 174, compared with Baxter's 204, a difference of 30 or more seats, whereas the difference is much smaller in terms of Tory seats where the spread bettors go 387 compared with Baxter's projection of 371 seats, i.e. 16 fewer. I presume that Baxter is giving more wins to Labour in Scotland. Incidentally, Baxter appears to have Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, which I recently backed the Tories to win (against a perfectly split left vote) at odds of 10/1. Slightly tongue in cheek admittedly, but Baxter gives them a good chance. DYOR.
Baxter's UNS is likely to be unusually worthless this election, and certainly has no value in working out whether or not the Greens will hold their seat.
Comments
The entire Labour manifesto is one whopping lie.
There's no way they could implement it, as the economy would crash.
WillS.
For the hard of memory:
The 172-40 vote, which is not binding, follows resignations from the shadow cabinet and calls on Mr Corbyn to quit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36647458
By the way, if you take the aggregate of the subsets [ warning: I know even then they are not representative ], the Welsh poll was foreshadowed.
London and the North have also moved similarly.
WillS.
Labour up 7 since 2015 - Plaid/the Greens/TUSC and socialist Labour down 6
Tories up 7 since 2015 - UKIP down 8.
Lib Dems stalled.
Map onto constituencies accordingly.
Anyway on Fisher and current polling ( i.e. excluding the polling yet to come which Conservatives would expect to be more favorable than seen recently) we'd expect in the region of, say, 200 Labour seats. Yes?
If that's right, no need to close my spread positions yet.
Labour leaflets say NHS is under threat, they were saying that 30 odd years ago, it's wearing very thin, they will have some people convinced already but there'll be no chance of convincing any more voters.
Labour has to maintain the posture that IT CANNOT WIN. CORBYN CANNOT BE PM.
Is there no end to the Tories incompetent campaign blunders?
Comedy La-la land spending promises and union powers being greatly increased has to be the next attack. Every day until polling day
And don't F it up this time tories eh? For all our sakes....
Though agree that tories would be in trouble if Corbyn wasn't leader. Think we have hit peak Lab.
(But this is just a technical adjustment to do with the sale of ivory pieces made pre 1947. Nothing to do with killing elephants).
It's in everyone's interest who wishes to see a more exciting race to try and bring the leader down a peg or two, and the media's latching onto the dementia stuff has certainly done that.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/866676270184136704
What is clear though is that Plaid and the Lib Dems there are in for a hiding.
Isn't it a bit rich of Osborne to be compiling lists of May's U turns when he has so much form in this area himself?
So 2010 we saw Labour run out of money and leave it to the Tory / Lib dems to sort the mess out.... and to then criticise from the sidelines.
2017 is it the Tory turn to lose the election so Labour / Lib Dems / SNP get to sort the Brexit mess out with Europe and then the Blues be ready to criticise from the sideline?
A nice symmetry if the worst should happen (which it won't but...)
May's cap will be God knows - but certainly not below three figures.
Unless you want the social care system to collapse.
The clouds lie low along the ridges
Ah sweet the air with curly smoke
From all his burning bridges......
With apologies to Dorothy Parker.....
Now is not the time for people to have second thoughts about Brexit, but in their hubris and complacency, perhaps now is the time to give the establishment an even bigger shock by putting Corbyn in a position to form a government.
Thanks to TMay, my expectations have been exceeded bigly.
I know it might not last, but the last couple of days have been fun.
Laters...
See this
https://twitter.com/SirDavidButler/status/866643815708463104
No wonder there was a u-turn.
The way for Labour to win votes in Archway was to chum up with Sinn Fein. Who ran the building sites?
Anyway it was far easier for the IRA to drop their Armalites once they had adopted a policy of Armalite plus ballot box. I imagine the mandarins - some of whom were genned up on Malaya, Africa, etc. - welcomed the left Labour links with Sinn Fein.
Corbyn could have made pals with more profound enemies of the English elite - such as the striking miners. Some visited the borough and there was a lot of discussion as to how people could support them. Corbyn took the line - in 1984, only a year after the 1983 election - that the best way to support the miners was to go all out for a Labour victory at the next general election! He is a party man through and through.
This is especially so as regards Labour seats where the spread firms go 171 & 174, compared with Baxter's 204, a difference of 30 or more seats, whereas the difference is much smaller in terms of Tory seats where the spread bettors go 387 compared with Baxter's projection of 371 seats, i.e. 16 fewer. I presume that Baxter is giving more wins to Labour in Scotland.
Incidentally, Baxter appears to have Lucas losing Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, which I recently backed the Tories to win (against a perfectly split left vote) at odds of 10/1. Slightly tongue in cheek admittedly, but Baxter gives them a good chance.
DYOR.
Both Hammond and May reputations have surely fallen over the last 2 months.
Promote Margot James,Penny,Mordaunt,Jesse Norman and Rory Stewart
It looks almost certain that TM will finish this election more damaged than she was at the start though... Will she be gone in a few months?
Yesterday they were looking at indulging in a spot of tax avoidance to keep their inheritance intact and complaining about the cap being shelved (which they didn't understand anyway) and now they are moaning that the U- turn is going to protect the rich.
I don't wish to be rude but it is moronic. Grow up!
The alarm bell for social care funding sounded a long time ago and as a society we have to find a solution.
Can she handle this tactic despite having no background in "reality" TV or wrestling, and no personality cult? Can she pull it off with just the shoes and hairstyle? Mordaunt?! Her attitude to parliamentary democracy is cock!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
"Now to the love of James' life: beautiful, energetic, loyal, soft-mouthed, comes on command, great behind. But that is enough about James' spaniel, Rafa...I wish the bride and groom a happy honeymoon in North Wales. At least that's where I presume they are going as I heard Spencer saying that after the wedding, James was going to Bangor for two weeks."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/22/lewd-best-mans-speech-pippa-middletons-wedding-bride-likened/
There wasn't time to focus group it before it was announced.