It gives me no pleasure to say it but Theresa May is like a golfer who needs a short putt to win the Masters, then gets out a driver and smashes the ball into the lake.
She is in danger of Pulling a Spieth here
More like the playoff in 89:
And now we know how it's pronounced. It's Hoch as in it rhymes with choke.
If I were still a Labour voter, I'd be weeping. If only!
Even Neil Kinnock would have been ten points ahead by now. Mrs May has no instinctive feel for politics, or solidity of purpose. But it doesn't matter.
She's up against 'ol Bonehead who would turn us into Venezuela and be happy about it, and the anti-democratic Farron, who having put all his eggs in one basket, sees it lying smashed on the ground. And the chances of Ukip or the Greens winning anything are as likely as me giving birth.
Wrong, yougov yesterday had Cooper and Umunna doing slightly worse than Corbyn against May and Khan only matched Corbyn
I was watching that oily shyster Umuna on TDP earlier. What a fucking worm he is. He's morphed from putting in a vote of no confidence against Corbyn to being a fully paid up apologist.
I do hope when the dust settles and sanity has been restored to British politics that Umuna tries for the Labour leadership and he is utterly destroyed.
It seems with the polls, that Tories aren't actually losing more than 1-2% support (still in the 44-47% range) even with their terrible manifesto....what has happened is Labour have jumped 4-5% on the back of it.
I am sure it is students that are significantly behind Labour's rise, their manifesto is the biggest of free sweeties...you would be a bit of an idiot not to want to vote for free uni.
It gives me no pleasure to say it but Theresa May is like a golfer who needs a short putt to win the Masters, then gets out a driver and smashes the ball into the lake.
Thankfully for her, her nearest opponent is nine shots back on the 16th.
I thought the comment on the doorstep that TM was like Devon Lock was funny
The two major parties' seat spreads with Sporting and Spreadex remain totally unchanged today with the Tories on a mid-spread of 387.5 seats, implying an overall majority of 125. This looks massively big to me, but what do I know? Obviously the spread prices are reflecting the bets being placed, so it would seem that the betting fraternity are not convinced that the Dementia Tax and its withdrawal are that big a deal, at least not yet anyway. Minds may be changed of course if the polls suggest otherwise.
I wonder if Mrs May's decision to call an election might eventually be seen as her equivalent of Brown's election that never was in 2007.Not that she has a hope of actually losing it, she's up against Jeremy Corbyn, but that's also the point - anything but a thumping, epoch shifting win will be seen as a bad result. Even a 50-60 seat majority would leave her wounded and change the narrative around her in the same way that Brown's decision changed him from the clunking fist to a conniving bumbler. She'd no longer be the strong, Thatcher like figure that sends the Mail into barely concealed paroxysms of ecstasy, but the person who Diana Rossed the open goal presented by Corbyn. That's not a good label if/when Brexit negotiations start to go badly or she's forced to compromise on a deal the Mail, Sun and her backbenchers don't like.
Her saving grace might be that the same result would prevent Labour from getting its act together as Corbynistas would insist all that's needed is one more heave from their man.
If she makes it over the line, what do we think. Brexit deal 2019/20 and then go?
She won't go voluntarily. The problem will be that if she makes a hash of Brexit or goes for a compromise her party's backwoodsmen don't like, they're much more likely to blame her than get behind her than if she had delivered the thumping her MPs expected. The Tory Party aren't known for their loyalty to leaders they perceive to be sub-optimal, she's made a lot of enemies (Osborne, Gove etc.) among some very ambitious people. If Labour's still screwed others might be tempted to manoeuvre for the prize. If they do, then polling pressure creates a different reason to manoeuvre.
They'll find it tricky to replace another PM in mid-term, but as Brown will confirm, authority can take years to build and vanish very quickly. Not taking the opportunity to batter a Labour Party in complete disarray would leave many of the MPs currently saying how brilliant she is extremely unimpressed with her and her strategy.
If I were still a Labour voter, I'd be weeping. If only!
Even Neil Kinnock would have been ten points ahead by now. Mrs May has no instinctive feel for politics, or solidity of purpose. But it doesn't matter.
She's up against 'ol Bonehead who would turn us into Venezuela and be happy about it, and the anti-democratic Farron, who having put all his eggs in one basket, sees it lying smashed on the ground. And the chances of Ukip or the Greens winning anything are as likely as me giving birth.
Wrong, yougov yesterday had Cooper and Umunna doing slightly worse than Corbyn against May and Khan only matched Corbyn
I was watching that oily shyster Umuna on TDP earlier. What a fucking worm he is. He's morphed from putting in a vote of no confidence against Corbyn to being a fully paid up apologist.
I do hope when the dust settles and sanity has been restored to British politics that Umuna tries for the Labour leadership and he is utterly destroyed.
Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)
A majority of 134, they say.
And that after supposedly the mother of all fuck ups? Can only assume that it didn't play anywhere near as bad in the Midlands and the North as some feint-hearts reckoned.
...a large majority of the public (70%) expect a Conservative majority on June 8th (including half of Labour supporters). Two in five (42%) think that the Conservatives will win a majority of more than 100 seats while 28% expect them to win with a majority fewer than 100. One in ten (10%) think Labour will become the majority party in parliament. Expectations don’t quite match public preferences of course with one in three (33%) preferring the outcome of the election to be a Conservative majority of more than 100 while 12% want a slimmer majority for the Conservatives of less than 100 seats. One in five (20%) want a Labour majority larger than 100 seats while 7% want them to hold a majority of less than 100. Just 4% would like to see a Liberal Democrat majority.
It gives me no pleasure to say it but Theresa May is like a golfer who needs a short putt to win the Masters, then gets out a driver and smashes the ball into the lake.
She is in danger of Pulling a Spieth here
Scrapheap can confirm but I believe the term is 'Spursy'
Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)
A majority of 134, they say.
And that after supposedly the mother of all fuck ups? Can only assume that it didn't play anywhere near as bad in the Midlands and the North as some feint-hearts reckoned.
All very disappointing if you ask me...just when there was a bit of excitement, ICM have to go and ruin the party....
Conservatives: 47% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 33% (up 5)
Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
Ukip: 4% (down 2)
Greens: 2% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 14 points (down 6)
A majority of 134, they say.
And that after supposedly the mother of all fuck ups? Can only assume that it didn't play anywhere near as bad in the Midlands and the North as some feint-hearts reckoned.
It gives me no pleasure to say it but Theresa May is like a golfer who needs a short putt to win the Masters, then gets out a driver and smashes the ball into the lake.
She is in danger of Pulling a Spieth here
More like the playoff in 89:
And now we know how it's pronounced. It's Hoch as in it rhymes with choke.
Not sure about that. Tory share is only down 1% after what everyone across the board was a clusterfuck of a week. If they poll 47% on June 8th that's a big win for TM.
It gives me no pleasure to say it but Theresa May is like a golfer who needs a short putt to win the Masters, then gets out a driver and smashes the ball into the lake.
She is in danger of Pulling a Spieth here
Scrapheap can confirm but I believe the term is 'Spursy'
Ukip drop to 4%, the lowest online share we have ever allocated to the party. This is partly the result of a methodology change. ICM is able to systematically allocate every respondent to their political constituency via their full postcode, so this week we built into the interview software constituency-level information that precluded Ukip as a party to vote for in those seats where they are not standing a candidate (thus forcing people living in such places to make an alternative choice). We believe this is a good addition to our polling methods; it will explain part of the further Ukip drop but perhaps not all of it >
I think that all polsters should be doing this.
Also, I believe that the forced choice in places where UKIP are not standing will have helped Labour (and maybe cushioned the Tory fall a bit)
If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well etc.
I feel sorry for all those Tory candidates who have been selling this policy on the doorstep for the past few days and now look like chumps at best.
Nick Timothy's reputation is now lower than crocodile piss, which means Mrs May's government won't function well post election. She might have to sack him.
Who is her Willie? Who's going to sit her down, and explain that she can't run a government the way she ran the Home Office? So that she listens?
Can't think of anyone, tbh. That's troubling.
As an aside, though, is anyone else feeling nostalgic for The Thick of It right now? One can just imagine Malcolm Tucker on current events...
Hague would be ideal but he's writing books in deepest mid Wales.
Still much more of this and it will be irrelevant two weeks Friday.
Actually, I did wonder whether Hague leaving in 2015 was to do with the promise of a referendum. He, better than anyone else, would have been a fantastic reserve PM in case of anything happening to the Tory party.
But then he took a peerage - damn.
He could still serve as her Willie. Indeed, Whitelaw took a peerage during his time in government. Time to return the Lord Chancellor to the Lords?
I don't think Whitelaw was ever Lord Chancellor.
Curse Blair for his constitutional vandalism, it was worse than his Iraq mistake.
But his lack of knowledge of the law isn't surprising considering he did Jurisprudence at Oxford
No, but Whitelaw was Leader of the Lords: the point being that he could still serve as Maggie's deputy while sitting in the Upper House.
Actually, I think that splitting up the Lord Chancellor's role did have good merit to it (though trying to abolish it altogether was wrong). I quite like many parliamentary anachronisms, which often serve subtle purposes or at least provide a sense of continuity. This didn't: judges shouldn't sit in the government, and nor should the equivalent of the Speaker of a House.
I'm wondering whether in the light of today's developments, ICM (or rather its client) has decided the bin the polling numbers we had expected to see today and instead to start again on a fresh poll, thereby delaying things by around 3 days?
I'm wondering whether in the light of today's developments, ICM (or rather its client) has decided the bin the polling numbers we had expected to see today and instead to start again on a fresh poll, thereby delaying things by around 3 days?
Just a thought, if ICM does show a 9 point gap, we know pretty much that is Labour's ceiling. If they can't get past the mid 30s after probably the worst mainfesto launch in history, then the Tories have nothing to fear. But no room for complacency.
They can put this social care furore to bed and tell the public that if they don't do the right thing on June 8th, we'll have Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott dismantling a 2 trillion pounds economy, and a guy who failed his A levels leading one of the most complicated negotiations in British history.
The Tories have to spend the next three weeks drumming that message home, again and again and again. Sod selling a 'positive vision', that's irrelevant for now.
For every pensioner who has considered voting Labour in the last few days, plant the seed in their minds - 'Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbot' - bankrupt economy, no Brexit, massive tax rises, massive rises in interest rates and inflation, mass unemployment. It's that serious. The gloves have to come off, and a bare knuckle brawl must ensue.
The Tories must punch Labour to pieces over their bankrupting manifesto, and they have to start right now. They could do a lot worse than Labour's 'Inheritance Tax Bombshell', for starters.
Come on Tories, FFS, rally, wake up from your stupor, we're three weeks away from oblivion if it all goes tits up. This is JEREMY CORBYN for God's sake, a 70 year old far left frother, not Barack Obama.
Sorry to go all Sean T, but I'm fucking angry at the complacency that has been shown. That MUST STOP NOW.
I think Cameron would sometimes change his mind halfway through the same sentence in which he was promising something or other. Is Trump her mentor? Maybe she can change her mind about his proposed state visit.
Labour's surging, but can't (yet) break 35. Unless they do they can't get it to HP
The have run out of votes to take off other parties.
To make further progress they have to take them from Tories. A much tougher nut to crack than Greens, returning Kippers and wobbly LibDems.
And that is before The Onslaught begins....
Well of she wants 100 majority she needs to move onto the front foot and stop sitting back absorbing right hooks. Rope a dope is for quality boxers only.
For people over 65 the odds of dementia are about 20/1. Over 80 the odds shorten to about 4/1. That is obviously a serious problem for a fast ageing society. Under the proposed policy if you are struck by the disease your wealth has a floor of £100k after taking account of care costs. How much would you pay an insurer to raise that to, say £200k? At 65 it should be a one-off payment of about £5k. At 80 perhaps £25k. Since it cannot be predicted who might be struck there should not be a moral hazard issue bedevilling such insurance. So wouldn’t a basic floor of £100k with voluntary supplementation to some higher figure be the way to go?
If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well etc.
I feel sorry for all those Tory candidates who have been selling this policy on the doorstep for the past few days and now look like chumps at best.
Nick Timothy's reputation is lower than crocodile piss, which means Mrs May's government won't function well post election. She might have to sack him.
She may well - I cannot think she is happy at the way the proposal was stated in the manifesto
Are you implying that she didn't have full final oversight and approval of her own manifesto?
Timothy is being scapegoated here - yes he may have come up with the policy but it was May who approved it and it was May who agreed to the wording - the buck must stop with her.
I actually supported the policy - it wasn't perfect but a better system than we have now, being that it hits inheritees not the elderly themselves. May's cap announcement is simply going help the rich further at the expense of the poor, terrible u turn. It means that poorer people will now pay a propotionallly higher cost of their total assets than richer pensioners. Even Jeremy Hunt explained this the other day.
This u turn is the worst of all worlds. She is about as strong and stable as a feather in a hurricane. Juncker et al will be laughing today.
If I were still a Labour voter, I'd be weeping. If only!
Even Neil Kinnock would have been ten points ahead by now. Mrs May has no instinctive feel for politics, or solidity of purpose. But it doesn't matter.
She's up against 'ol Bonehead who would turn us into Venezuela and be happy about it, and the anti-democratic Farron, who having put all his eggs in one basket, sees it lying smashed on the ground. And the chances of Ukip or the Greens winning anything are as likely as me giving birth.
Wrong, yougov yesterday had Cooper and Umunna doing slightly worse than Corbyn against May and Khan only matched Corbyn
I was watching that oily shyster Umuna on TDP earlier. What a fucking worm he is. He's morphed from putting in a vote of no confidence against Corbyn to being a fully paid up apologist.
I do hope when the dust settles and sanity has been restored to British politics that Umuna tries for the Labour leadership and he is utterly destroyed.
I don't even particularly like Jeremy Corbyn, but he's not a fool.
Something that rarely gets mentioned is that there is a large Irish population in Archway, which is part of his constituency, Islington North.
he was banging on about that in his interview yesterday as it happens
Oh I didn't know that. This is the main reason that he and other figures in London Labour more generally, such as Ken Livingstone, were into the Irish question so much. They're politicians.
You're making the mistaken assumption that the Irish community was pro-IRA. They weren't. Irishmen like my father and the rest of my family were ashamed and heartbroken at what men like Adams did to the name of Ireland and Irish nationalism. Their contempt for the fools like Corbyn who sucked up to men of violence was vitriolic.
People like Corbyn were into this because their enemy's enemy was their friend. That's all.
The IRA question is relevant not to the Irish question now but to Corbyn's judgment and moral compass. Just as his association with Holocaust deniers is. It's relevant because it gives us a clue as to how he will behave when faced with terrorists now who want to harm us and the British state.
That is the issue and it is an issue which the Nick Palmers of this world with their disingenuous "oh it's all a long time ago" and "oh he happened to be standing in the same room" nonsense deliberately ignore.
Corbyn and Abbott and McDonnell cannot be trusted with the security of this country and its citizens. And the security of this country is the primary and most important role of government.
Well uncle Lynton needs to start earning his money for the next two and a bit weeks and absolutely nail labour....otherwise it is labour leader corbyn for another 5 years.
Despite her reputation, Thatcher swerved all the time, and this one was performed at top speed and with maximum impact - most of the hoohah will have settled down by election day, eliminating the Tories' biggest negative and letting the focus return to Corbyn.
May's probably lost 25 potential gains, but saved a solid win.
Agreed.
I hoped she'd still go for the 'Arnie Vinick' 50 state strategy...
I'd say we've gone from a landslide with the electorate happy to grant it to a landslide with the Brexiteers holding their noses to secure it to a largish majority with a clothes peg shortage.
Well I don't think she needed to do this - but she will have a much better sense on what the damage was going to be.
A full u turn would be swiftly forgotten... But if it's partial I think Labour can still make some political capital out of it.
How - and see their lack of proposals exposed.
Labour will carry on the same attacks about a dementia tax. The Tories won't be able to say - we have dropped that policy completely.
Instead they will have to explain whatever the amended policy is - and clearly they haven't figured out all of the details yet since they only just u turned.
If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well etc.
I feel sorry for all those Tory candidates who have been selling this policy on the doorstep for the past few days and now look like chumps at best.
Nick Timothy's reputation is lower than crocodile piss, which means Mrs May's government won't function well post election. She might have to sack him.
She may well - I cannot think she is happy at the way the proposal was stated in the manifesto
Are you implying that she didn't have full final oversight and approval of her own manifesto?
Timothy is being scapegoated here - yes he may have come up with the policy but it was May who approved it and it was May who agreed to the wording - the buck must stop with her.
I actually supported the policy - it wasn't perfect but a better system than we have now, being that it hits inheritees not the elderly themselves. May's cap announcement is simply going help the rich further at the expense of the poor, terrible u turn. It means that poorer people will now pay a propotionallly higher cost of their total assets than richer pensioners. Even Jeremy Hunt explained this the other day.
This u turn is the worst of all worlds. She is about as strong and stable as a feather in a hurricane. Juncker et al will be laughing today.
The poor won't pay anything as they'll be under the £100k floor.
Those in the lower middle who have only a bit more than the floor won't lose much
Those in the upper middle who have upto but not much more than the cap will lose the most proportionally.
The richest who benefit by the cap the most will lose less proportionally (but still more than the poor who are protected by the floor).
Though we can't know without the benefit of handsight if they're overreaching or being smart.
Afterall Cameron was overreaching by campaigning in safe Lib Dem seats that were dug in like cockroaches and impossible to shift due to their personal constituency vote ...
To be honest, although this was the world's most unnecessary and avoidable balls up, the extreme rapidity and firmness of the U-turn actually dispels one of my major misgivings about TM, namely that she would be utterly inflexible and unresponsive to public opinion. Turns out not to be the case at all.
The ability to execute a strategic withdrawal is one of THE key skills in politics.
First may I apoligise TSE on May,you were right and could we be heading for a corbyn labour government ?
I can't see things getting better for May but the labour leader and shadow cabinet frighten the hell out of me ,I could never vote for a party with Diane Abbott has shadow home secretary.
First may I apoligise TSE on May,you were right and could we be heading for a corbyn labour government ?
I can't see things getting better for May but the labour leader and shadow cabinet frighten the hell out of me ,I could never vote for a party with Diane Abbott has shadow home secretary.
You must have seen the latest ICM poll just published?
First may I apoligise TSE on May,you were right and could we be heading for a corbyn labour government ?
I can't see things getting better for May but the labour leader and shadow cabinet frighten the hell out of me ,I could never vote for a party with Diane Abbott has shadow home secretary.
We're not headed for a Corbyn government.
We might be headed for a tepid Tory majority in which Mrs May have damaged her reputation in the process as well as the Brexit process.
She'll be the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS if she doesn't sack up
The entire Lib Dem campaign has been tin eared from the start. Farage is not running and the election is Not about Brexit. How many times do they need to be told?
I can imagine millions of former UKIP voters looking at that and thinking "that looks great, I'll vote for that".
Though we can't know without the benefit of handsight if they're overreaching or being smart.
Afterall Cameron was overreaching by campaigning in safe Lib Dem seats that were dug in like cockroaches and impossible to shift due to their personal constituency vote ...
First may I apoligise TSE on May,you were right and could we be heading for a corbyn labour government ?
I can't see things getting better for May but the labour leader and shadow cabinet frighten the hell out of me ,I could never vote for a party with Diane Abbott has shadow home secretary.
You must have seen the latest ICM poll just published?
The full media blow out of the U-turn not taken into account yet. ?
UKIP drop to 4%, the lowest online share we have ever allocated to the party. This is partly the result of a methodology change. ICM is able to systematically allocate every respondent to their political constituency via their full postcode, so this week we built into the interview software constituency-level information that precluded UKIP as a party to vote for in those seats where they are not standing a candidate (thus forcing people living in such places to make an alternative choice). We believe this is a good addition to our polling methods; it will explain part of the further UKIP drop but perhaps not all of it.
According to the Guardian Mrs May was asked at this morning’s Press Conference 'Someone with dementia will have to use up their inheritance. But someone who dies of cancer will be able to pass on £1m because you have raised the inheritance tax threshold. So it is a dementia tax. How is that fair?”
There numerous, albeit less publicised, cases where the children of people who have died of dementia have fought social services through the courts ....... although usually to the steps of the court ....... and recovered part at least of he value of their inheritance. It’s nasty, one is vilified, but it can be done.
Very few people have done this successfully. There are tons of solicitors who will take your case up on a NoWinNoFee basis
However, it is not a good use of public resources for these legal fights to be conducted. Public money is consumed in defending them by both theLocal Authorities and the NHS.
Public money that could be used for ... err ... social care.
My bro-in-law... technically ..... is one of the few. Twice. There is, or at least was, an excellent firm in South Wales who have a department specialising in this sort of work.
However, I completely agree that fighting these cases to the extent to which it is done is a complete waste of public money. However, if the LA’s are on a ‘lose’, why spend public money fighting them. See http://www.nhscare.info
Very relieved with ICM at least - Reds up on free kitten offering and Tories remarkably high still, don't see them polling over 43% in the real thing...
Narrative needs changing asap but unsure what'll do that.
I was v relaxed over the weekend but I don't like u-turns.
May was probably right to send him packing out the back door.
Of course she was. He destroyed himself with Project Fear... A period rehabilitation was what was needed... Unfortunately true to type, instead of going to the backbenches and working hard to rebuild the reputation he himself shattered he's gone down the "revenge" route.
Still at least his disloyalty means he'll never be able to return as an MP... And sooner of later he'll destroy himself at the Standard... Because that's what arrogant people do and there comes no more arrogant than George Osborne.
Problem with Corbyn and his apologists now attempting to airbrush his past associations, and everything he is recorded to have said and done.
He WANTED the IRA to WIN.
Did you watch the video?
Hard to disagree with anything he says to be honest. Tells his supporters not to boo a journalist, praises the unionists and republicans for making peace, condemns all violence by all sides...
The worrying thing for me is that the logic of the conservative attacks might be to unpick the good Friday Agreement. Just at the time when Brexit is going to need some deft handling in Northern Ireland.
"There is, though, another difference between the April 2015 poll and the most recent set of figures from YouGov that we have to take on board before coming to the conclusion that the SNP is at greater risk of losing seats from tactical voting this time around. Two years ago, no less than 69% of those who said they were inclined to vote tactically indicated that they were doing so in order to defeat the SNP. This time around, only 46% are stating that this is their purpose, while as many as 39% say they want to stop the Conservatives winning locally.
So we may see more anti-Conservative tactical voting at this election rather than just attempts to deny the SNP success. Ms Davidson’s stout defence of the Union may have won her many new friends, but it has seemingly also stimulated others into trying to stop the advance of a party that, according to YouGov, no less than 46% still say they dislike the most."
Curtis has picked up on the 15% or so, who are considering voting tactically, are as likely to vote against SCON as the SNP. - I sense the SNP will not have suffered from the Dementia Tax shambles !!
" There is, though, another difference between the April 2015 poll and the most recent set of figures from YouGov that we have to take on board before coming to the conclusion that the SNP is at greater risk of losing seats from tactical voting this time around. Two years ago, no less than 69% of those who said they were inclined to vote tactically indicated that they were doing so in order to defeat the SNP. This time around, only 46% are stating that this is their purpose, while as many as 39% say they want to stop the Conservatives winning locally. "
Labour not being challenged on their own u turn today, something the blues might want to point out. You can't just magically wave off 8 billion to secure the youth vote and get away with it Scott free.
"There is, though, another difference between the April 2015 poll and the most recent set of figures from YouGov that we have to take on board before coming to the conclusion that the SNP is at greater risk of losing seats from tactical voting this time around. Two years ago, no less than 69% of those who said they were inclined to vote tactically indicated that they were doing so in order to defeat the SNP. This time around, only 46% are stating that this is their purpose, while as many as 39% say they want to stop the Conservatives winning locally.
So we may see more anti-Conservative tactical voting at this election rather than just attempts to deny the SNP success. Ms Davidson’s stout defence of the Union may have won her many new friends, but it has seemingly also stimulated others into trying to stop the advance of a party that, according to YouGov, no less than 46% still say they dislike the most."
Thanks, Carlotta, for putting this up.
Interesting. And as I suggested at the weekend, expecting Labour supporters to vote tactical Tory in a national GE was always pushing credibility.
Comments
And now we know how it's pronounced. It's Hoch as in it rhymes with choke.
I am sure it is students that are significantly behind Labour's rise, their manifesto is the biggest of free sweeties...you would be a bit of an idiot not to want to vote for free uni.
Not true though will still win easily.
This looks massively big to me, but what do I know? Obviously the spread prices are reflecting the bets being placed, so it would seem that the betting fraternity are not convinced that the Dementia Tax and its withdrawal are that big a deal, at least not yet anyway. Minds may be changed of course if the polls suggest otherwise.
They'll find it tricky to replace another PM in mid-term, but as Brown will confirm, authority can take years to build and vanish very quickly. Not taking the opportunity to batter a Labour Party in complete disarray would leave many of the MPs currently saying how brilliant she is extremely unimpressed with her and her strategy.
The value isn't really in betting against Labour I think though (Now)
It's in taking on the sensible centre-left party that got less viewers than Supervet sadly.
And that after supposedly the mother of all fuck ups? Can only assume that it didn't play anywhere near as bad in the Midlands and the North as some feint-hearts reckoned.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/seven-ten-expect-conservative-majority-june-8th
Peak Dementia.
https://twitter.com/rupertevelyn/status/866642368665137156
Actually, I think that splitting up the Lord Chancellor's role did have good merit to it (though trying to abolish it altogether was wrong). I quite like many parliamentary anachronisms, which often serve subtle purposes or at least provide a sense of continuity. This didn't: judges shouldn't sit in the government, and nor should the equivalent of the Speaker of a House.
SCRAP THAT ...... I SEE THE ICM POLL IS NOW OUT!
If that holds, then she'll be ok.
Spreads aren't moving much: Spreadex 388-171, Spin 387-173
They can put this social care furore to bed and tell the public that if they don't do the right thing on June 8th, we'll have Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott dismantling a 2 trillion pounds economy, and a guy who failed his A levels leading one of the most complicated negotiations in British history.
The Tories have to spend the next three weeks drumming that message home, again and again and again. Sod selling a 'positive vision', that's irrelevant for now.
For every pensioner who has considered voting Labour in the last few days, plant the seed in their minds - 'Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbot' - bankrupt economy, no Brexit, massive tax rises, massive rises in interest rates and inflation, mass unemployment. It's that serious. The gloves have to come off, and a bare knuckle brawl must ensue.
The Tories must punch Labour to pieces over their bankrupting manifesto, and they have to start right now. They could do a lot worse than Labour's 'Inheritance Tax Bombshell', for starters.
Come on Tories, FFS, rally, wake up from your stupor, we're three weeks away from oblivion if it all goes tits up. This is JEREMY CORBYN for God's sake, a 70 year old far left frother, not Barack Obama.
Sorry to go all Sean T, but I'm fucking angry at the complacency that has been shown. That MUST STOP NOW.
To make further progress they have to take them from Tories. A much tougher nut to crack than Greens, returning Kippers and wobbly LibDems.
And that is before The Onslaught begins....
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/866642692394147840
134 majority ten times wot Dave achieved
Is Trump her mentor?
Maybe she can change her mind about his proposed state visit.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/149985/constituency-opinion-polls/
No tittering at the back!
Timothy is being scapegoated here - yes he may have come up with the policy but it was May who approved it and it was May who agreed to the wording - the buck must stop with her.
I actually supported the policy - it wasn't perfect but a better system than we have now, being that it hits inheritees not the elderly themselves. May's cap announcement is simply going help the rich further at the expense of the poor, terrible u turn. It means that poorer people will now pay a propotionallly higher cost of their total assets than richer pensioners. Even Jeremy Hunt explained this the other day.
This u turn is the worst of all worlds. She is about as strong and stable as a feather in a hurricane. Juncker et al will be laughing today.
People like Corbyn were into this because their enemy's enemy was their friend. That's all.
The IRA question is relevant not to the Irish question now but to Corbyn's judgment and moral compass. Just as his association with Holocaust deniers is. It's relevant because it gives us a clue as to how he will behave when faced with terrorists now who want to harm us and the British state.
That is the issue and it is an issue which the Nick Palmers of this world with their disingenuous "oh it's all a long time ago" and "oh he happened to be standing in the same room" nonsense deliberately ignore.
Corbyn and Abbott and McDonnell cannot be trusted with the security of this country and its citizens. And the security of this country is the primary and most important role of government.
Labour 39; Tories 35; Plaid 16; Lib Dems 5 ?
I hoped she'd still go for the 'Arnie Vinick' 50 state strategy...
Those in the lower middle who have only a bit more than the floor won't lose much
Those in the upper middle who have upto but not much more than the cap will lose the most proportionally.
The richest who benefit by the cap the most will lose less proportionally (but still more than the poor who are protected by the floor).
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/866067850661949440
Afterall Cameron was overreaching by campaigning in safe Lib Dem seats that were dug in like cockroaches and impossible to shift due to their personal constituency vote ...
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/866646406555193345
The ability to execute a strategic withdrawal is one of THE key skills in politics.
I can't see things getting better for May but the labour leader and shadow cabinet frighten the hell out of me ,I could never vote for a party with Diane Abbott has shadow home secretary.
Labour 36.9%
Tories 27.2%
UKIP 13.6%
Plaid 12.1%
Lib Dems 6.5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/866647050649260036
I thought that the Welsh speculation might set you into a tailspin comrade?
How much (roughly) are you out on your constituency bets?
We might be headed for a tepid Tory majority in which Mrs May have damaged her reputation in the process as well as the Brexit process.
She'll be the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS if she doesn't sack up
If you enter 47/33/9/4/2 and also tick the Scottish box and put in 43/29/19
the majority is 92. Tories 371, Labour 204, SNP 49, LD 5, PC 3, NI 18
WillS
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/05/a-very-different-election/
I've been backing Labour in a few places most recently there though.
UKIP drop to 4%, the lowest online share we have ever allocated to the party. This is partly the result of a methodology change. ICM is able to systematically allocate every respondent to their political constituency via their full postcode, so this week we built into the interview software constituency-level information that precluded UKIP as a party to vote for in those seats where they are not standing a candidate (thus forcing people living in such places to make an alternative choice). We believe this is a good addition to our polling methods; it will explain part of the further UKIP drop but perhaps not all of it.
As for Osborne - £&$*"^%*"(! and "*$^"%!$£^$*$
However, I completely agree that fighting these cases to the extent to which it is done is a complete waste of public money. However, if the LA’s are on a ‘lose’, why spend public money fighting them.
See http://www.nhscare.info
No, I don’t work for them or anything like that!
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_guardian_poll_campaign7_may17.pdf
Narrative needs changing asap but unsure what'll do that.
I was v relaxed over the weekend but I don't like u-turns.
I hope it's the Logan Act he's being charged under.
Labour 42%
Tories 34%
Plaid 10%
UKIP 10% <- Doubt this will be as high in a real poll
Lib Dem 7%
Still at least his disloyalty means he'll never be able to return as an MP... And sooner of later he'll destroy himself at the Standard... Because that's what arrogant people do and there comes no more arrogant than George Osborne.
Hard to disagree with anything he says to be honest.
Tells his supporters not to boo a journalist, praises the unionists and republicans for making peace, condemns all violence by all sides...
The worrying thing for me is that the logic of the conservative attacks might be to unpick the good Friday Agreement. Just at the time when Brexit is going to need some deft handling in Northern Ireland.
So we may see more anti-Conservative tactical voting at this election rather than just attempts to deny the SNP success. Ms Davidson’s stout defence of the Union may have won her many new friends, but it has seemingly also stimulated others into trying to stop the advance of a party that, according to YouGov, no less than 46% still say they dislike the most."
Thanks, Carlotta, for putting this up.
" There is, though, another difference between the April 2015 poll and the most recent set of figures from YouGov that we have to take on board before coming to the conclusion that the SNP is at greater risk of losing seats from tactical voting this time around. Two years ago, no less than 69% of those who said they were inclined to vote tactically indicated that they were doing so in order to defeat the SNP. This time around, only 46% are stating that this is their purpose, while as many as 39% say they want to stop the Conservatives winning locally. "
Are you aware of any charges ?
Regardless, lock him up anyway. Jared Kushner next.