Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
But you can afford to "make no distinction as to affiliation" because it costs you less, Jack, n terms of unfavourable outcomes. Mostly, this advantage of determining election timing has accrued to a party you oppose. Opposing its existence therefore aligns with your political allegiance, because you're opposing an advantage that has been wielded in five of the last eight elections by Conservatives.
Do any Conservatives here oppose the government having this power?
Am I correct, this power vests with only Commonwealth Prime Ministers ?
Just cannot see Angus Robertson (Moray) or Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) being defeated even if a uniform swing to the Tories would take them out. The SNP have held the former seat for 30 years and the latter for over 20 years.
Both are favourites with the bookies to win now, although I am on both of them at evens or shades of odds against.
The Tories have good candidates in both, both areas were more No than average in 2014 and Moray almost voted Leave, tactical voting too from unionists will be there as was the case in the locals
Can you give a brief description of the qualities of these 'good' candidates?
Douglas Ross in Moray is a former Moray councillor and now MSP for the Highlands and Islands while Ian Duncan in Perth is a Scottish Tory MEP
So, they're Tories, and one is a list MEP, and they're Tories, and the other is a list MSP who's lost every time he stood as a constituency MP or MSP, and..er..they're Tories.
I'd hate to see your definition of a mediocre candidate.
Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
But you can afford to "make no distinction as to affiliation" because it costs you less, Jack, n terms of unfavourable outcomes. Mostly, this advantage of determining election timing has accrued to a party you oppose. Opposing its existence therefore aligns with your political allegiance, because you're opposing an advantage that has been wielded in five of the last eight elections by Conservatives.
Do any Conservatives here oppose the government having this power?
Am I correct, this power vests with only Commonwealth democracies ?
From a quick read of the wiki: Belgium, Denmark, France, India, Ireland, Italy and Japan also have this feature.
We will legislate to ensure that a form of identification must be presented before voting
Where does it say 'photo'?
What other forms of identification have you been asked to show ? As you board an aircraft, have you ever been asked: "can I see your gold card please, madam? "
If I miss the postman and have to pick up a package at the sorting office they will not accept my photo ID bus pass as identification.
Acceptable forms of ID To pick up your parcel, you'll need proof of identity (for the person the parcel is addressed to) and proof of delivery address from one of the following (originals, not copies)
Birth Certificate Building Society Book Cheque Book Cheque Guarantee Card Council Tax Payment Book Credit Card Credit Card Statement (not older than 6 months) Debit Card Full Driving Licence Marriage Certificate Military Photo ID Foreign National Identity Card National Savings Bank Book Valid Passport Paid Utilities Bill (not older than 6 months) Standard acknowledgement letter (SAL) issued by the Home office for Asylum Seekers Trade Union Card
Good Tory candidates you say for Moray and Perth? Douglas Ross (Moray Tory) is already in trouble in his MSP role for missing important meetings so that he can do his refereeing job. The "part time" tag which is being heavily played should do for him :-)
Wishart will garner every anti-Tory vote for sure, as ever, to his standard-especially after the disaster for Labour in Aberdeen where they have put a group of overwhelmingly inexperienced Tories into power.
Isn't saying how well "leave" did in these areas just another way of admitting that "remain" actually won?
The bookies have gone back to making Robertson and Wishart favourites. I am not surprised.
The Tories would win Perth on the locals and Yougov and tactical voting will do for Robertson in Moray, indeed the locals showed unionist tactical voting was strong in both seats. The fact the SNP are saying Ross doing a bit of refereeing in his spare time stops him doing his job as an MSP shows how desperate the SNP campaign in Moray had now become
We will legislate to ensure that a form of identification must be presented before voting
Where does it say 'photo'?
What other forms of identification have you been asked to show ? As you board an aircraft, have you ever been asked: "can I see your gold card please, madam? "
If I miss the postman and have to pick up a package at the sorting office they will not accept my photo ID bus pass as identification.
Acceptable forms of ID To pick up your parcel, you'll need proof of identity (for the person the parcel is addressed to) and proof of delivery address from one of the following (originals, not copies)
Birth Certificate Building Society Book Cheque Book Cheque Guarantee Card Council Tax Payment Book Credit Card Credit Card Statement (not older than 6 months) Debit Card Full Driving Licence Marriage Certificate Military Photo ID Foreign National Identity Card National Savings Bank Book Valid Passport Paid Utilities Bill (not older than 6 months) Standard acknowledgement letter (SAL) issued by the Home office for Asylum Seekers Trade Union Card
Classic voter suppression. Interestingly more likely to affect the UKIP vote. Maybe May wants rid of them...
It's a volatile section of the electorate. I reckon a good number have gone through all the parties pretty much over the years. May wants them for THIS election.
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
Who would have the final call on delaying an election such as what happened in 2001 with foot and mouth?
That's why the FTPA should be strengthened and not scrapped.
I'd probably opt for a Constitutional Commission of the Privy Council to determine such issues. But the essential convention should be that the manipulation of election timing for party advantage should be determined as unconstitutional and recommend to the monarch not to grant a dissolution.
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
Wouldn't the first preference share be a more reliable indicator?
Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
The only way to arrange that is to make it impossible to call an early general election even if everybody agrees one is needed.
Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
The only way to arrange that is to make it impossible to call an early general election even if everybody agrees one is needed.
Given that that is the system in most other Western democracies, I am sure we'd manage. @JackW is right.
Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
The only way to arrange that is to make it impossible to call an early general election even if everybody agrees one is needed.
Given that that is the system in most other Western democracies, I am sure we'd manage. @JackW is right.
In quite a few the executive can call early elections. Posted an incomplete list below.
Some people say that it is not for government to regulate when it comes to technology and the internet. We disagree. While we cannot create this framework alone, it is for government, not private companies, to protect the security of people and ensure the fairness of the rules by which people and businesses abide. Nor do we agree that the risks of such an approach outweigh the potential bene ts. It is in the interests of stable markets that consumers are protected from abusive behaviour, that money is able to ow freely and securely, and that competition between businesses takes place on a level playing eld. It is in no-one’s interest for the foundations of strong societies and stable democracies – the rule of law, privacy and security – to be undermined.....
.....Just as we led the world in regulating embryology thirty years ago, we know that if we create the right system of governance for the digital economy and use of data, we will a ract the right businesses who want to become the global centre for data use and research.
Julian will be readying himself for his long walk to freedom amongst adoring throngs. It's just that they'll be of a completely different political complexion than they would have been 5 years ago.
Supports the general impression that average voters dislike Corbyn less now they're seeing more of him, although the Scots take a jaundiced view of most politicians.
On topic, I agree with Alastair that Brexit voting is an unreliable guide. UKIP voting does however seem quite a good guide - unless there's a lot of thrashing going on, the simple explanation of the polls is that UKIP votes are going Tory and not much else is happening. I'm sure it's a bit more complicated than that but iut's a good rule of thumb. That has very clear impilcations for constituencies which I don't think punters have entirely taken on board.
Incidentally, Labour's big win last night was in Enfield, which went Tory in the local elections. Just one ward and just a by-election, but slightly interesting.
Julian will be readying himself for his long walk to freedom amongst adoring throngs. It's just that they'll be of a completely different political complexion than they would have been 5 years ago.
Which is good news - whatever you think of him, there was always something that smelled rather unpleasant about the way that charge appeared, and the US pressure on Sweden to push it
Having had time to consume the Conservative manifesto (slow day in the Jacobite rebellion) I must say it's a masterpiece of banal soundbites, political chicanery and motherhood and apple pie and all without any detailed costings.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
One non-banal soundbite that caught my eye... "We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
I put that under political chicanery. The Prime Minister should not have the ability to call an election for party advantage. Sounds familiar ....
Surely it's only chicanery to secure party political advantage if it's usually the party you oppose that secures it? In which case, calling it chicanery is party political chicanery in itself, no?
No.
I make no distinction as to affiliation. The Prime Minister, of whichever party, should not be able to manipulate the timing of general elections.
But you can afford to "make no distinction as to affiliation" because it costs you less, Jack, n terms of unfavourable outcomes. Mostly, this advantage of determining election timing has accrued to a party you oppose. Opposing its existence therefore aligns with your political allegiance, because you're opposing an advantage that has been wielded in five of the last eight elections by Conservatives.
Do any Conservatives here oppose the government having this power?
Sadly the Jacobites have been out of power for the last few elections.
I am equal opportunity opponent of the abuse of power by the Labour PM's too, whether it be Blair in 01 or 05, Wilson in 66, 70 or 74 and Attlee in 51.
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
Was there a local VI poll done in Scotland prior to the LE ?
It is unclear what the Scottish result "should" have been, unlike anywhere else in the UK excl NI the Tories are not in the lead so might not get the natural upswing there.
Mr. Woolie, not been paying that much attention. Is Craig really being a bit off? Back into 0.1% spike in inflation territory, or are the Conservatives being a bit precious?
Which is good news - whatever you think of him, there was always something that smelled rather unpleasant about the way that charge appeared, and the US pressure on Sweden to push it
There was always something entirely fictitious about the idea that it was all a US plot. If Assange were really worried about the threat of extradition to the US he would have steered clear of the UK.
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
The interest seems mostly on other matters, such as these proposals on social care. This is despite social care heavily relying on immigrants, so not as separate as at first sight.
Mr. Woolie, not been paying that much attention. Is Craig really being a bit off? Back into 0.1% spike in inflation territory, or are the Conservatives being a bit precious?
He was brutal on wobbly Wednesday, apparently the Tories 'failed' one of Peter Mandelsons electoral 'laws' on three fronts. He was very much enjoying himself but yes, the Tories are being a bit precious
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
Was there a local VI poll done in Scotland prior to the LE ?
It is unclear what the Scottish result "should" have been, unlike anywhere else in the UK excl NI the Tories are not in the lead so might not get the natural upswing there.
Just cannot see Angus Robertson (Moray) or Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) being defeated even if a uniform swing to the Tories would take them out. The SNP have held the former seat for 30 years and the latter for over 20 years.
Both are favourites with the bookies to win now, although I am on both of them at evens or shades of odds against.
The Tories have good candidates in both, both areas were more No than average in 2014 and Moray almost voted Leave, tactical voting too from unionists will be there as was the case in the locals
Can you give a brief description of the qualities of these 'good' candidates?
Douglas Ross in Moray is a former Moray councillor and now MSP for the Highlands and Islands while Ian Duncan in Perth is a Scottish Tory MEP
So, they're Tories, and one is a list MEP, and they're Tories, and the other is a list MSP who's lost every time he stood as a constituency MP or MSP, and..er..they're Tories.
I'd hate to see your definition of a mediocre candidate.
Looks like Barnier, and even Juncker, are trying to knock some sense into the EU27 in order to get them to see that their current red lines are bonkers and could leave then with an exit payment of precisely zero, and that they will have to discuss the future trade deal before agreeiment can be reached on any payments:
Barnier has told the commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and other senior officials that the stakes are so high because Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending.
“Mr Barnier considered that this issue would doubtless be one of the most difficult in the negotiation,” the minutes of a top-level meeting held earlier this month note.
“However, should there be no agreement on this point, he believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real, since none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
Also, for those who insisted that the calling of the election would make no difference to the Brexit talks, confirmation that it does indeed strenghten the PM's hand:
The commission then discussed “the need to integrate in the parameters for the future negotiations the growing support in British public opinion for the idea of a disorderly exit of the UK from the union”, the minutes say.
Barnier told the meeting that he “hoped that after the British legislative elections the UK’s internal political climate would be more conducive to reaching agreement”.
Lol Sky are getting blanked by the Tories, hilarious
But isn't Sky supposed to be part of the evil Murdoch Tory backing empire?
It looks like Adam Boulton has *really* upset Theresa May and her team.
It comes from the morning the election was called, when there was an hour or so between the announcement of an announcement, and the announcement itself. Boulton was stood outside No.10 speculating wildly that Mrs May might resign due to ill health. When one of her aides messaged him to give him a slap, he read out the aide's message on air and repeated his speculation that the PM was sick.
Just read the header piece as on PB for the first time for a fair few days. Terrific analysis by Mr Meeks. I would add that one should not assume that because a lot of people are lending Mrs May their vote st this election thatvthis will necessarily hold up once Brexit is completed. The Conservatives are currently proposing a lot of things I am very unhappy with and I would suggest that the Tory vote may well be wide but exceedingly shallow.
Supports the general impression that average voters dislike Corbyn less now they're seeing more of him, although the Scots take a jaundiced view of most politicians.
On topic, I agree with Alastair that Brexit voting is an unreliable guide. UKIP voting does however seem quite a good guide - unless there's a lot of thrashing going on, the simple explanation of the polls is that UKIP votes are going Tory and not much else is happening. I'm sure it's a bit more complicated than that but iut's a good rule of thumb. That has very clear impilcations for constituencies which I don't think punters have entirely taken on board.
Incidentally, Labour's big win last night was in Enfield, which went Tory in the local elections. Just one ward and just a by-election, but slightly interesting.
Labour are retaining fewer 2015 votes in Scotland (51%) than they are across the UK (c.65%).
It looks like they will get some swingback from the SNP - 60,000 or so voters net, but are set to lose 150,000 to the Tories.
Lol Sky are getting blanked by the Tories, hilarious
But isn't Sky supposed to be part of the evil Murdoch Tory backing empire?
It looks like Adam Boulton has *really* upset Theresa May and her team.
It comes from the morning the election was called, when there was an hour or so between the announcement of an announcement, and the announcement itself. Boulton was stood outside No.10 speculating wildly that Mrs May might resign due to ill health. When one of her aides messaged him to give him a slap, he read out the aide's message on air and repeated his speculation that the PM was sick.
Julian will be readying himself for his long walk to freedom amongst adoring throngs. It's just that they'll be of a completely different political complexion than they would have been 5 years ago.
Which is good news - whatever you think of him, there was always something that smelled rather unpleasant about the way that charge appeared, and the US pressure on Sweden to push it
Yeah, the unpleasant smell was that he hid away from it rather than fighting it.
Looks like Barnier, and even Juncker, are trying to knock some sense into the EU27 in order to get them to see that their current red lines are bonkers and could leave then with an exit payment of precisely zero, and that they will have to discuss the future trade deal before agreeiment can be reached on any payments:
Barnier has told the commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and other senior officials that the stakes are so high because Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending.
“Mr Barnier considered that this issue would doubtless be one of the most difficult in the negotiation,” the minutes of a top-level meeting held earlier this month note.
“However, should there be no agreement on this point, he believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real, since none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
Also, for those who insisted that the calling of the election would make no difference to the Brexit talks, confirmation that it does indeed strenghten the PM's hand:
The commission then discussed “the need to integrate in the parameters for the future negotiations the growing support in British public opinion for the idea of a disorderly exit of the UK from the union”, the minutes say.
Barnier told the meeting that he “hoped that after the British legislative elections the UK’s internal political climate would be more conducive to reaching agreement”.
It's not worth those of us who aren't directly involved in the Brexit negotiations expending too much intellectual energy on them. The options are as follows:
1) car crash Brexit 2) minimal agreement Brexit
The idea of soft Brexit or indeed any complicated Brexit is for the birds. There isn't the time and there transparently isn't any inclination on the EU side for any such thing.
Yep, he'll still be in trouble for breaching his bail, will probably get somehitng like six months then be deported to Ecuador. He'll need to survive the lynch mob of Luvvies first though, the ones that put up I think £150k in bail for him and never saw it again.
Lol Sky are getting blanked by the Tories, hilarious
But isn't Sky supposed to be part of the evil Murdoch Tory backing empire?
It looks like Adam Boulton has *really* upset Theresa May and her team.
It comes from the morning the election was called, when there was an hour or so between the announcement of an announcement, and the announcement itself. Boulton was stood outside No.10 speculating wildly that Mrs May might resign due to ill health. When one of her aides messaged him to give him a slap, he read out the aide's message on air and repeated his speculation that the PM was sick.
Boulton is a champion of pissing off PMs, I remember his 'oh come off it' to Brown about the election that never was.
Who would have the final call on delaying an election such as what happened in 2001 with foot and mouth?
That's why the FTPA should be strengthened and not scrapped.
I'd probably opt for a Constitutional Commission of the Privy Council to determine such issues. But the essential convention should be that the manipulation of election timing for party advantage should be determined as unconstitutional and recommend to the monarch not to grant a dissolution.
A good idea in theory, but guaranteed to create major unintended consequences. Who on earth decides what is done for "party advantage" and what isn't? TMay can claim that this election is essential in the national interest because she must be seen by the EU to be in an impregnable position. More subtly, she can claim to have actually saved our democracy in the nick of time by going before the forthcoming Lab conference at which the Corbynites were going to perpetuate their strangle hold on the party by dropping the plp backing requirement for leadership candidates from 15>5%. Who decides on the intention? HM herself?
Just catching up with the thread. So if I've got this right, in future you will only be allowed to vote if you need to collect a parcel from the sorting office?
Regarding the Dementia Tax. While for people who need to go into a care home it represents an improvement, I think the real issue with it is that the policy is a U-turn on the previous proposal to have a £72k (or whatever the figure was) cap on how much anyone would have to pay.
Now, I see what is being proposed as fairer, as it is based on ability to pay, rather than being a poll tax on care, as it were. Probably even fairer would be to fund care out of general taxation, which would link payment to earnings rather than wealth and also share the burden across society, not just on the poor buggers who need the care (and their families).
If we want to say that you should only pay for care if you need it, why not extend the same argument to healthcare or education? Why the inconsistency rather than philosophical coherence?
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
Was there a local VI poll done in Scotland prior to the LE ?
It is unclear what the Scottish result "should" have been, unlike anywhere else in the UK excl NI the Tories are not in the lead so might not get the natural upswing there.
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
The interest seems mostly on other matters, such as these proposals on social care. This is despite social care heavily relying on immigrants, so not as separate as at first sight.
Yes, I used to think that - but you come up with a more convincing explanation for the flocking to Jeremy we seem to be seeing.
It cuts both ways. It's also a message to the UK that if we focus on the money, we can forget about a deal.
No, the problem was that they were wanting a guarantee from us of shedloads of money, with no guarantee from them of a deal in return. They seem gradually to be edging towards the realisation that that approach is completely ludicrous.
Had they bothered to read PB.com over the last year, they would already know that.
The question is whether they are edging towards sanity on that question fast enough to be able to reach an agreement before it's too late. I'm not sure they are.
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
The interest seems mostly on other matters, such as these proposals on social care. This is despite social care heavily relying on immigrants, so not as separate as at first sight.
Yes, I used to think that - but you come up with a more convincing explanation for the flocking to Jeremy we seem to be seeing.
The Tories left the airwaves free for a lot of exposure of Labour's programme, which is attractive to many who won't be concerned that it isn't realistic. And Corbyn in the flesh isn't as bad as the tabloid caricature.
Julian Assange will be arrested if he leaves the Ecuadorian embassy despite Sweden dropping its sexual assault investigation, British police have confirmed.
A spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police said that despite Sweden's European arrest warrant for the WikiLeaks founder being lifted, he was under a separate warrant for skipping bail.
"Westminster Magistrates' Court issued a warrant for the arrest of Julian Assange following him failing to surrender to the court on the 29 June 2012," a statement said.
"The Metropolitan Police Service is obliged to execute that warrant should he leave the Embassy."
Who would have the final call on delaying an election such as what happened in 2001 with foot and mouth?
That's why the FTPA should be strengthened and not scrapped.
I'd probably opt for a Constitutional Commission of the Privy Council to determine such issues. But the essential convention should be that the manipulation of election timing for party advantage should be determined as unconstitutional and recommend to the monarch not to grant a dissolution.
A good idea in theory, but guaranteed to create major unintended consequences. Who on earth decides what is done for "party advantage" and what isn't? TMay can claim that this election is essential in the national interest because she must be seen by the EU to be in an impregnable position. More subtly, she can claim to have actually saved our democracy in the nick of time by going before the forthcoming Lab conference at which the Corbynites were going to perpetuate their strangle hold on the party by dropping the plp backing requirement for leadership candidates from 15>5%. Who decides on the intention? HM herself?
Mrs May's case is a simple one. She led a Conservative majority government. End of story.
The fact that parliament offered opposition is the nature of democracy and the internal troubles of the Labour party are of no concern of hers.
Just catching up with the thread. So if, I've got this right, in future you will only be allowed to vote if you need to collect a parcel from the sorting office?
snip
In a democracy, personation is one of the worst crimes there is. Who steals my purse, steals trash, but casting 10 moody votes amounts to stealing ten times my own democratic stake in the country. If confused old biddies aren't gonna vote that's a shame (and party activists can mitigate the problem by identifying them and helping them get some sort of ID) but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote.
The same applies in spades to postal voting.
Here's a helpful publication from the HoC Library.
And taken from it (p. 8) the 18 local authorities that have been identified in 2016 by the (entirely independent) Electoral Commission as at most risk of allegations of electoral fraud:
Also, for those who insisted that the calling of the election would make no difference to the Brexit talks, confirmation that it does indeed strenghten the PM's hand:
The commission then discussed “the need to integrate in the parameters for the future negotiations the growing support in British public opinion for the idea of a disorderly exit of the UK from the union”, the minutes say.
Barnier told the meeting that he “hoped that after the British legislative elections the UK’s internal political climate would be more conducive to reaching agreement”.
That's an odd interpretation of his comments. Basically he says they have to allow for the fact that no-deal hard Brexit is gaining support in Britain (if I read it correctly he thinks this is as a by-product of the election) and he hopes that once the election is over the Brits will become more reasonable. It seems obvious that he thinks the election is unhelpful to the prospects of reaching a deal, though you could say it strengthens TM's ability to refuse a deal altogether.
Overall it's a negotiator's update, warning that developments on both sides are making a deal harder to achieve. He doesn't actually say that's a bad thing - above his pay grade - but he wants his Governments to know.
Who would have the final call on delaying an election such as what happened in 2001 with foot and mouth?
That's why the FTPA should be strengthened and not scrapped.
I'd probably opt for a Constitutional Commission of the Privy Council to determine such issues. But the essential convention should be that the manipulation of election timing for party advantage should be determined as unconstitutional and recommend to the monarch not to grant a dissolution.
A good idea in theory, but guaranteed to create major unintended consequences. Who on earth decides what is done for "party advantage" and what isn't? TMay can claim that this election is essential in the national interest because she must be seen by the EU to be in an impregnable position. More subtly, she can claim to have actually saved our democracy in the nick of time by going before the forthcoming Lab conference at which the Corbynites were going to perpetuate their strangle hold on the party by dropping the plp backing requirement for leadership candidates from 15>5%. Who decides on the intention? HM herself?
Mrs May's case is a simple one. She led a Conservative majority government. End of story.
The fact that parliament offered opposition is the nature of democracy and the internal troubles of the Labour party are of no concern of hers.
Fixed term of five years. Get on with it.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Any attempt to change it, and (if it is changed) each and every attempt to invoke it, is going to reek of ad hoc-ery.
And if the party political advantage favours the Conservatives, I think all right-thinking Britons will agree that what is good for General Motors is good for the country.
... It seems obvious that he thinks the election is unhelpful to the prospects of reaching a deal, though you could say it strengthens TM's ability to refuse a deal altogether....
Not quite. It means that he thinks that the election is unhelpful to the prospects of blackmailing us into a deal similar to the EU27's opening position. He's right.
Lol Sky are getting blanked by the Tories, hilarious
But isn't Sky supposed to be part of the evil Murdoch Tory backing empire?
It looks like Adam Boulton has *really* upset Theresa May and her team.
It comes from the morning the election was called, when there was an hour or so between the announcement of an announcement, and the announcement itself. Boulton was stood outside No.10 speculating wildly that Mrs May might resign due to ill health. When one of her aides messaged him to give him a slap, he read out the aide's message on air and repeated his speculation that the PM was sick.
Boulton is a champion of pissing off PMs, I remember his 'oh come off it' to Brown about the election that never was.
Boulton just gets very pissed off when he doesn't get the bread and circuses he thinks politicians owe him.
Just catching up with the thread. So if, I've got this right, in future you will only be allowed to vote if you need to collect a parcel from the sorting office?
snip
In a democracy, personation is one of the worst crimes there is. Who steals my purse, steals trash, but casting 10 moody votes amounts to stealing ten times my own democratic stake in the country. If confused old biddies aren't gonna vote that's a shame (and party activists can mitigate the problem by identifying them and helping them get some sort of ID) but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote.
The same applies in spades to postal voting.
Here's a helpful publication from the HoC Library.
"but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote."
The question is how far you go down the road of ensuring that without making it so that one man cannot vote. There are other priorities that are just as, if not more important: for example ensuring that the vote remains secret, and that everyone eligible to vote has a reasonable opportunity to vote.
The whole voting process is a compromise - a balance - between sometimes competing requirements.
But again, I ask what the purpose of this change is? What problem is it trying to solve?
Good Tory candidates you say for Moray and Perth? Douglas Ross (Moray Tory) is already in trouble in his MSP role for missing important meetings so that he can do his refereeing job. The "part time" tag which is being heavily played should do for him :-)
Wishart will garner every anti-Tory vote for sure, as ever, to his standard-especially after the disaster for Labour in Aberdeen where they have put a group of overwhelmingly inexperienced Tories into power.
Isn't saying how well "leave" did in these areas just another way of admitting that "remain" actually won?
The bookies have gone back to making Robertson and Wishart favourites. I am not surprised.
The Tories would win Perth on the locals and Yougov and tactical voting will do for Robertson in Moray, indeed the locals showed unionist tactical voting was strong in both seats. The fact the SNP are saying Ross doing a bit of refereeing in his spare time stops him doing his job as an MSP shows how desperate the SNP campaign in Moray had now become
Greens should boost SNP in Moray by c.3%
Kippers outnumber Greens in Moray so that should be cancelled out, shouldn't it?
Just catching up with the thread. So if, I've got this right, in future you will only be allowed to vote if you need to collect a parcel from the sorting office?
snip
In a democracy, personation is one of the worst crimes there is. Who steals my purse, steals trash, but casting 10 moody votes amounts to stealing ten times my own democratic stake in the country. If confused old biddies aren't gonna vote that's a shame (and party activists can mitigate the problem by identifying them and helping them get some sort of ID) but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote.
The same applies in spades to postal voting.
Here's a helpful publication from the HoC Library.
"but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote."
The question is how far you go down the road of ensuring that without making it so that one man cannot vote. There are other priorities that are just as, if not more important: for example ensuring that the vote remains secret, and that everyone eligible to vote has a reasonable opportunity to vote.
The whole voting process is a compromise - a balance - between sometimes competing requirements.
But again, I ask what the purpose of this change is? What problem is it trying to solve?
Personation. Simple as that. Did you read the pdf I linked to?
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
McDonnell losing the plot, he's going to issue the press 30 questions to ask the Tories.
"How does it feel to be so lucky, that your principal opponent decided to put up a terrorist sympathising Marxist from the 1970s as candidate for prime minister?"
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
The interest seems mostly on other matters, such as these proposals on social care. This is despite social care heavily relying on immigrants, so not as separate as at first sight.
Yes, I used to think that - but you come up with a more convincing explanation for the flocking to Jeremy we seem to be seeing.
Two horse race on a national level. UKIP have been rendered moot and the LDs have rendered themselves irrelevant.
The Brexiteers are going to turn out en masse and vote Tory to ensure it happens. The grey vote will grumble and bumble but hold its nose and vote Tory, especially to ensure the first point happens. There will not be a great rush to support the kindly old terror sympathiser and the bonfire of the economy. It will be brutal for them everywhere that isn't already blue, where they will just about hold ground as they are. This one is done. The die is cast,
This. The BBC were talking to some pensioners yesterday who were unhappy with the changes. Who would they vote for? The tories, as they like May.
Basically, there are only 4 choices. Dementia care, or anything else will shift comparatively few votes.
Brexit under any terms -- vote Tory
Brexit, but we must stay in Single Market -- vote Labour
Rerun the referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote LibDem
Rerun a different referendum until we get the answer we want -- vote SNP.
Everything else is just vapour.
1 choice. Don't want the country to be like Venezuela only without the Caribbean sea frontage - vote Tory.
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
The British public is bored of Brexit, even PB geeks!
The public have a settled view.
From the article linked to earlier:
"Brexit was the country’s last act of political animation before it settles down to a cheeky Nando's in front of Gogglebox."
An interesting aspect of the Tory manifesto which I don't think has received much notice: its presentation. Under Cameron, we had good-quality typography with lots of pretty pictures, quotations from 'ordinary people', and plenty of white space. This one is just a dense chunk of text with small margins. The overall effect is one of relentless, serious, text.. It looks very much as though it's been produced in the PM's office with no professional graphic design input at all.
Just read the header piece as on PB for the first time for a fair few days. Terrific analysis by Mr Meeks. I would add that one should not assume that because a lot of people are lending Mrs May their vote st this election thatvthis will necessarily hold up once Brexit is completed. The Conservatives are currently proposing a lot of things I am very unhappy with and I would suggest that the Tory vote may well be wide but exceedingly shallow.
Indeed, Richard, and I draw some wry amusement from the notion that after five years of a Liberal Democrat Government with a Conservative Prime Minister (according to some), we are now facing a Labour Government with a Conservative Prime Minister (according to some).
From Day One, I have said May was Heseltine not Thatcher. She has a notion of the role of State and the use of legislation which I find quite repellent and I imagine some Conservatives might. She is an authoritarian who will use legislation to control, enforce and influence how people live, act and even think.
I don't believe she does this from any notion of malevolence but she believes the primary duty of the State is to protect its citizens which means the enforcement of law and the preservation of security. Nothing wrong with that but in a free society (which we purport to be), there has to be room for that freedom of thought and action and the right to criticise.
May's notion of the role of the State and Government may be as an enabler and provider but it's a very short step to becoming an instrument of control and coercion. It's easy to argue for more security, more control, more laws, more restrictions but living in a free and open society means we have to balance the right to speak freely, to dissent, to protest and to argue against the constraints of Government.
There are some aspects of May's manifesto I quite like and I can see why they would irritate more laissez-faire minded Conservatives but the overall tenor smacks of control and I hope the cocky triumphalism of some on here in three weeks time won't mask an intolerance toward those not supportive of the Government but who wish to hold it to account in the coming months and years.
Went shopping with my father this morning who is recovering from a wrist operation and can't push a trolley or lift bags.
Anyway I was surprised at a lot of the anti Theresa May talk I overheard from pensioners as we were going around the supermarkets in Accrington and Great Harwood, kept hearing the words 'felt betrayed'. That's of course only at 3 supermarkets we went to, but I do wonder if elsewhere and across the country there is a rising unhappiness with her with a demographic that usually votes Tory and does actually get out and vote.
Overall I have not all been impressed with their campaign, is it hubris or arrogance? They think Corbyn and his brand of Labour has no chance and therefore don't feel the need to really put that effort in? That's just the campaign itself that manifesto itself has some things in it I didn't think they would go for. Maybe they feel it's a shoe in that they will win and have been a bit riskier with their manifesto ideas.
Looks like Barnier, and even Juncker, are trying to knock some sense into the EU27 in order to get them to see that their current red lines are bonkers and could leave then with an exit payment of precisely zero, and that they will have to discuss the future trade deal before agreeiment can be reached on any payments:
Barnier has told the commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and other senior officials that the stakes are so high because Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending.
“Mr Barnier considered that this issue would doubtless be one of the most difficult in the negotiation,” the minutes of a top-level meeting held earlier this month note.
“However, should there be no agreement on this point, he believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real, since none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
Also, for those who insisted that the calling of the election would make no difference to the Brexit talks, confirmation that it does indeed strenghten the PM's hand:
The commission then discussed “the need to integrate in the parameters for the future negotiations the growing support in British public opinion for the idea of a disorderly exit of the UK from the union”, the minutes say.
Barnier told the meeting that he “hoped that after the British legislative elections the UK’s internal political climate would be more conducive to reaching agreement”.
It's not worth those of us who aren't directly involved in the Brexit negotiations expending too much intellectual energy on them. The options are as follows:
1) car crash Brexit 2) minimal agreement Brexit
The idea of soft Brexit or indeed any complicated Brexit is for the birds. There isn't the time and there transparently isn't any inclination on the EU side for any such thing.
Car crash Brexit looks the likeliest at present.
Some sort of transitional arrangement using the extra time May has bought offers a third option of slow motion car crash Brexit
Went shopping with my father this morning who is recovering from a wrist operation and can't push a trolley or lift bags.
Anyway I was surprised at a lot of the anti Theresa May talk I overheard by pensioners as we were going around the supermarkets in Accrington and Great Harwood, kept hearing the word 'betrayed'. That's of course only at 3 supermarkets we went to, but I do wonder if elsewhere and across the country there is a rising unhappiness with her with a demographic that usually votes Tory and does actually get out and vote.
Overall I have not all been impressed with their campaign, is it hubris or arrogance? They think Corbyn and his brand of Labour has no chance and therefore don't feel the need to really put that effort in? That's just the campaign itself that manifesto itself has some things in it I didn't think they would go for. Maybe they feel it's a shoe in that they will win and have been a bit riskier with their manifesto ideas.
You need to go to three different supermarkets to get his shopping??
Even if most ££ is from Uncle Len, I assume they have slightly more to spend on this election than 2015 with the incoming money from new members. Is it possible that the Tory-Labour spending imbalance will be less, affecting the outcome slightly in key marginals? Every Ilford North, Hampstead, Hove, Exeter and even Chester matters!
Just catching up with the thread. So if, I've got this right, in future you will only be allowed to vote if you need to collect a parcel from the sorting office?
snip
In a democracy, personation is one of the worst crimes there is. Who steals my purse, steals trash, but casting 10 moody votes amounts to stealing ten times my own democratic stake in the country. If confused old biddies aren't gonna vote that's a shame (and party activists can mitigate the problem by identifying them and helping them get some sort of ID) but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote.
The same applies in spades to postal voting.
Here's a helpful publication from the HoC Library.
"but it is nowhere compared to the absolute necessity of ensuring that one man gets one vote."
The question is how far you go down the road of ensuring that without making it so that one man cannot vote. There are other priorities that are just as, if not more important: for example ensuring that the vote remains secret, and that everyone eligible to vote has a reasonable opportunity to vote.
The whole voting process is a compromise - a balance - between sometimes competing requirements.
But again, I ask what the purpose of this change is? What problem is it trying to solve?
Personation. Simple as that. Did you read the pdf I linked to?
I've read it before. This is an area I have an interest in.
From the document: "As at 31 December 2011, court proceedings have been initiated in one case of personation at a polling station, and one case relating to an imprint offence has been resolved with a caution."
One case.
As it happens, non-photo ID wouldn't fix anything. Photo ID would have severe consequences on many people who are legally able to vote (it will also cause problems in the voting stations, although that's a procedural issue).
Comments
http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-05/nigel-farage-brexit-ukip-russia-contacts
I'd hate to see your definition of a mediocre candidate.
Classic voter suppression. Interestingly more likely to affect the UKIP vote. Maybe May wants rid of them...
Do you think [ ] is doing well or badly as [ ] - net well:
Sturgeon: +2 (-)
Davidson: +10 (+3)
Dugdale: -19 (+10)
May: -17 (-3)
Corbyn: -36 (+16)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rnz6ummmks/TimesResults_170518_Scotland_WestminsterVI_W.pdf
VI stable
Con: 29 (+1)
Lab: 19 (+1)
SNP: 42 (+1)
LiD: 6 (-1)
The next one ?
Perhaps not so much
Actually I suddenly think this election may be about Brexit (exit with good deal or no deal vs exit with single market or no brexit) simply because that is the least unlikely reason why anyone would vote for Corbyn.
You don't have a firm enough grasp of the detail it appears. The GE constituency of Perth and North Perthshire returned an equal number of Tory and SNP councillors. That is a solid basis for a hold by Wishart on 8 June.
I'd probably opt for a Constitutional Commission of the Privy Council to determine such issues. But the essential convention should be that the manipulation of election timing for party advantage should be determined as unconstitutional and recommend to the monarch not to grant a dissolution.
As opposed to the Buzzfeed article, which is 80% deliberately misleading bollocks.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/roger-ailes-cause-of-death-bleeding-brain-bathroom-fall-a7743921.html
Good piece on Angela Rayner. I have say given her backstory, it's very impressive the success she's managed to make of her life.
One of the few people in Corbyn's cabinet to watch out for in the future, IMHO.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/865495060120453121
On topic, I agree with Alastair that Brexit voting is an unreliable guide. UKIP voting does however seem quite a good guide - unless there's a lot of thrashing going on, the simple explanation of the polls is that UKIP votes are going Tory and not much else is happening. I'm sure it's a bit more complicated than that but iut's a good rule of thumb. That has very clear impilcations for constituencies which I don't think punters have entirely taken on board.
Incidentally, Labour's big win last night was in Enfield, which went Tory in the local elections. Just one ward and just a by-election, but slightly interesting.
I am equal opportunity opponent of the abuse of power by the Labour PM's too, whether it be Blair in 01 or 05, Wilson in 66, 70 or 74 and Attlee in 51.
It is unclear what the Scottish result "should" have been, unlike anywhere else in the UK excl NI the Tories are not in the lead so might not get the natural upswing there.
Mr. Woolie, not been paying that much attention. Is Craig really being a bit off? Back into 0.1% spike in inflation territory, or are the Conservatives being a bit precious?
The interest seems mostly on other matters, such as these proposals on social care. This is despite social care heavily relying on immigrants, so not as separate as at first sight.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/865499352319401985
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/18/brexit-talks-could-collapse-over-uk-divorce-bill-says-eu-negotiator
Looks like Barnier, and even Juncker, are trying to knock some sense into the EU27 in order to get them to see that their current red lines are bonkers and could leave then with an exit payment of precisely zero, and that they will have to discuss the future trade deal before agreeiment can be reached on any payments:
Barnier has told the commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, and other senior officials that the stakes are so high because Berlin and Paris are refusing to pay more to cover the UK’s departure, while those governments who receive the most from EU funds are opposed to any cuts in spending.
“Mr Barnier considered that this issue would doubtless be one of the most difficult in the negotiation,” the minutes of a top-level meeting held earlier this month note.
“However, should there be no agreement on this point, he believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real, since none of the 27 member states wished to contribute more to the current multi-annual financial framework or receive less in projects financed under the framework.”
Also, for those who insisted that the calling of the election would make no difference to the Brexit talks, confirmation that it does indeed strenghten the PM's hand:
The commission then discussed “the need to integrate in the parameters for the future negotiations the growing support in British public opinion for the idea of a disorderly exit of the UK from the union”, the minutes say.
Barnier told the meeting that he “hoped that after the British legislative elections the UK’s internal political climate would be more conducive to reaching agreement”.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/why-theresa-may-so-popular-because-shes-not-ashamed-be-basic
It comes from the morning the election was called, when there was an hour or so between the announcement of an announcement, and the announcement itself. Boulton was stood outside No.10 speculating wildly that Mrs May might resign due to ill health. When one of her aides messaged him to give him a slap, he read out the aide's message on air and repeated his speculation that the PM was sick.
It looks like they will get some swingback from the SNP - 60,000 or so voters net, but are set to lose 150,000 to the Tories.
SNP retention is 65%, which is Corbyn's UK level.
1) car crash Brexit
2) minimal agreement Brexit
The idea of soft Brexit or indeed any complicated Brexit is for the birds. There isn't the time and there transparently isn't any inclination on the EU side for any such thing.
Car crash Brexit looks the likeliest at present.
He'll need to survive the lynch mob of Luvvies first though, the ones that put up I think £150k in bail for him and never saw it again.
Regarding the Dementia Tax. While for people who need to go into a care home it represents an improvement, I think the real issue with it is that the policy is a U-turn on the previous proposal to have a £72k (or whatever the figure was) cap on how much anyone would have to pay.
Now, I see what is being proposed as fairer, as it is based on ability to pay, rather than being a poll tax on care, as it were. Probably even fairer would be to fund care out of general taxation, which would link payment to earnings rather than wealth and also share the burden across society, not just on the poor buggers who need the care (and their families).
If we want to say that you should only pay for care if you need it, why not extend the same argument to healthcare or education? Why the inconsistency rather than philosophical coherence?
Mr. Tyndall, I agree with that, and would reiterate that the weakness of other leaders is a related matter helping the Conservatives.
That is utterly astounding and bodes VERY well for the GE in my opinion.
Had they bothered to read PB.com over the last year, they would already know that.
The question is whether they are edging towards sanity on that question fast enough to be able to reach an agreement before it's too late. I'm not sure they are.
The example of Blair throwing away half the rebate for a promise on CAP reform that came to nothing is a useful warning.
A spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police said that despite Sweden's European arrest warrant for the WikiLeaks founder being lifted, he was under a separate warrant for skipping bail.
"Westminster Magistrates' Court issued a warrant for the arrest of Julian Assange following him failing to surrender to the court on the 29 June 2012," a statement said.
"The Metropolitan Police Service is obliged to execute that warrant should he leave the Embassy."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/julian-assange-arrest-leave-ecuador-embassy-metropolitan-police-london-wikileaks-sweden-drop-a7744231.html
The fact that parliament offered opposition is the nature of democracy and the internal troubles of the Labour party are of no concern of hers.
Fixed term of five years. Get on with it.
So we will make sure there is more support in every part of the country by recruiting up to 10,000 more mental health professionals.
Page 69
The same applies in spades to postal voting.
Here's a helpful publication from the HoC Library.
Electoral fraud since 2010 - Parliament UK
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06255/SN06255.pdf
And taken from it (p. 8) the 18 local
authorities that have been identified in 2016 by the (entirely independent) Electoral Commission as at
most risk of allegations of electoral fraud:
• Birmingham
• Blackburn with Darwen
• Bradford
• Bristol
• Burnley
• Calderdale
• Coventry
• Derby
• Hyndburn
• Kirklees
• Luton
• Oldham
• Pendle
• Peterborough
• Slough
• Tower Hamlets
• Walsall
• Woking
No meaningful conclusions can be drawn from inspection of that list. No, sirree.
Overall it's a negotiator's update, warning that developments on both sides are making a deal harder to achieve. He doesn't actually say that's a bad thing - above his pay grade - but he wants his Governments to know.
And if the party political advantage favours the Conservatives, I think all right-thinking Britons will agree that what is good for General Motors is good for the country.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/865506274963673089
The question is how far you go down the road of ensuring that without making it so that one man cannot vote. There are other priorities that are just as, if not more important: for example ensuring that the vote remains secret, and that everyone eligible to vote has a reasonable opportunity to vote.
The whole voting process is a compromise - a balance - between sometimes competing requirements.
But again, I ask what the purpose of this change is? What problem is it trying to solve?
Be interesting to see polls following the weekend.
Game on?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/865502065874804737
The constituency was 61% leave, miles higher than anywhere else in Scotland.
"Brexit was the country’s last act of political animation before it settles down to a cheeky Nando's in front of Gogglebox."
Unsettling.
From Day One, I have said May was Heseltine not Thatcher. She has a notion of the role of State and the use of legislation which I find quite repellent and I imagine some Conservatives might. She is an authoritarian who will use legislation to control, enforce and influence how people live, act and even think.
I don't believe she does this from any notion of malevolence but she believes the primary duty of the State is to protect its citizens which means the enforcement of law and the preservation of security. Nothing wrong with that but in a free society (which we purport to be), there has to be room for that freedom of thought and action and the right to criticise.
May's notion of the role of the State and Government may be as an enabler and provider but it's a very short step to becoming an instrument of control and coercion. It's easy to argue for more security, more control, more laws, more restrictions but living in a free and open society means we have to balance the right to speak freely, to dissent, to protest and to argue against the constraints of Government.
There are some aspects of May's manifesto I quite like and I can see why they would irritate more laissez-faire minded Conservatives but the overall tenor smacks of control and I hope the cocky triumphalism of some on here in three weeks time won't mask an intolerance toward those not supportive of the Government but who wish to hold it to account in the coming months and years.
Anyway I was surprised at a lot of the anti Theresa May talk I overheard from pensioners as we were going around the supermarkets in Accrington and Great Harwood, kept hearing the words 'felt betrayed'. That's of course only at 3 supermarkets we went to, but I do wonder if elsewhere and across the country there is a rising unhappiness with her with a demographic that usually votes Tory and does actually get out and vote.
Overall I have not all been impressed with their campaign, is it hubris or arrogance? They think Corbyn and his brand of Labour has no chance and therefore don't feel the need to really put that effort in? That's just the campaign itself that manifesto itself has some things in it I didn't think they would go for. Maybe they feel it's a shoe in that they will win and have been a bit riskier with their manifesto ideas.
Or is there a subtle Corbyn message here about not getting into an arms race...?
Brownian motion...
From the document: "As at 31 December 2011, court proceedings have been initiated in one case of personation at a polling station, and one case relating to an imprint offence has been resolved with a caution."
One case.
As it happens, non-photo ID wouldn't fix anything. Photo ID would have severe consequences on many people who are legally able to vote (it will also cause problems in the voting stations, although that's a procedural issue).