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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at Labour’s share of the vote in the polls and what do
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at Labour’s share of the vote in the polls and what does it mean
Wikipedia GE2017 poll chart All the mood music is pointing one way. Both Labour and Conservative sources suggest a meltdown in Labour’s heartlands. The Conservatives have put out rumours that they are trying to take seats such as Leeds East, West Bromwich East and Bolsover. If they were to succeed, Labour would be reduced to a rump.
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https://goo.gl/7cTbAf
Other charts are available, e.g. @Sunil_Prasannan
How did I miss this chestnut:
"We will repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act."
There is a god!
We will legislate for votes for life for British overseas electors.
And a bit of stick if their Lordships prove troublesome:
Although comprehensive reform is not a priority we will ensure that the House of Lords continues to fulfil its constitutional role as a revising and scrutinising chamber which respects the primacy of the House of Commons. We have already undertaken reform to allow the retirement of peers and the expulsion of members for poor conduct and will continue to ensure the work of the House of Lords remains relevant and effective by addressing issues such as its size.
Which of the following election outcomes would you most like to see at the election next month?
A landslide Conservative majority : 29 (among 65+: 42)
A medium sized Conservative majority : 19
A narrow Conservative majority : 8
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY : 56 (Only London 45 & Scotland 44 not majority wish)
A Conservative-led coalition government : 8
A Labour-led coalition government : 14
A narrow Labour majority : 4
A medium sized Labour majority :6
A landslide Labour majority : 13
TOTAL LABOUR MAJORITY : 23
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g50dff7d4t/YouGov - Evening Standard - Election outcomes - 170510.pdf
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4520444/QUENTIN-LETTS-Theresa-s-manifesto-launch.html
Con Majority: 35
Con led coalition: 19
Lab led coalition: 35
The strongest support geographically is for a Lab led coalition in Scotland (26) - but that's tied in Scotland with Con landslide (23).
For me the most telling numbers are want to see a [Party] Majority (2015 vote):
Con: 98 (92)
Lab: 57 (46)
Under half of Labour's 2015 voters (and barely over half of their current ones) want to see a majority Labour government....
The bottom line is that Mrs May has explicitly promised to make life better for voters by delivering a Brexit that will improve living standards. She will be judged on whether she does. Unlike Labour, the Tories cannot just throw their manifesto commitments in the rubbish bin. They have to deliver on them.
But if she leads Britain through Brexit, restores the alliance of blue collar workers and Middle England voters who swept Margaret Thatcher to power, and implements even half of her ambitious programme, she could transform this country. In doing so, she would restore trust in British politics so badly damaged in recent decades.
The Mail believes wholeheartedly she must be given the chance.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4520986/At-PM-not-afraid-honest.html
I think we may have crossed wires - my point is it is very light on promises of anything.
A simple choice for Sun readers
NEVER in The Sun’s history has an election thrown up a choice so clear-cut and a conclusion so obvious for our readers.
It is between an extremist Labour Party longing to test their teenage Marxism to its inevitable destruction, taking our economy and the security and prosperity of millions of families with it.
Or a Tory party which was serious, grown-up and honest yesterday about Britain’s problems and the difficult solutions to them.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3598878/never-in-our-history-has-a-uk-election-thrown-up-such-a-clear-cut-and-obvious-choice-for-sun-readers/
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/865307546793504768
https://twitter.com/ScottyNational/status/865311547438051328
Blimey, I forgot all about last night’s ‘leader’ debate, despite being reminded on PB earlier in the day. No doubt interesting snippets will be released as and when, or maybe not.
Whether you think that they have yet nailed down the details of this correctly or not the contrast between the spending commitments by Labour backed by highly aspirational tax increases that may or may not produce any additional income is as stark as I can recall in an election period.
I still think that this is quite a brave Manifesto, in a Yes Minister sense, challenging the consensus over the last 20 years or so that you do not threaten the oldies because they vote. I hope it comes off but at the margins some of those oldies are going to resent the winding down of the triple lock, the loss of their Winter fuel allowance and be genuinely fearful that they will lose their homes, even on death, and not be able to pass them down to the family.
It suggests to me that we might yet see some further tightening in the polling and that Alastair is right that current value is probably finding targets where Labour are more likely to hold on than was thought a couple of weeks ago when there was that deluge of tsunami polls suggesting a landslide of epic proportions. A lot of very optimistic money has been piled on the Tories and, whilst winning comfortably, they are likely to fall significantly short of those expectations.
He's here to stay.
Senior Conservatives were scrambling to play down the prospect of post-election tax rises after Theresa May scrapped a promise not to raise income tax or national insurance.
Experts warned that a new Tory government was likely to raise national insurance for the self-employed and to remove deductions on income tax and corporation tax as well as potentially broadening the base of products that qualify for 20 per cent VAT.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tories-need-40bn-to-plug-giant-hole-in-spending-plans-32f2l0xtj
It is sad that so many of those who do well in life forget their duty to protect the less fortunate
For both Barrow and Westmorland Central Office have been very slow to sign off leaflets for local distribution. I think that might be deliberate to stop them being delivered too soon.
And a final ?gripe? as someone who has been hauled over the coals in previous elections for printing my name in my leaflets in bigger letters than "Conservative" I am wondering how this "Mrs May" whoever she is gets away with it. Has she been repremanded formally yet ???
[Assuming most life peers are in their 50s or 60s, that means they will retire between 70 and 80, which is not unreasonable. Any benefit from the fact that peers appointed from 1997 onwards would begin to retire shortly is entirely coincidental]
At least you do it eloquently and politely, though, which is a lot more than can be said for many of your co-travellers on the Left.
Eliminating the deficit isn't "uncosted". We know precisely how much it will "cost" (i.e. need in savings).
Effectively unlimited immigration benefits the aggregate economy (although much less so on a per capita basis) but the benefits accrue largely to the well off and the costs are borne by the semi-skilled and skilled working classes.
That's not just.
Leave has so far completely failed to persuade erstwhile Remain voters that they were wrong. The lack of curiosity among Leavers as to why they have been so unpersuasive in the intervening months is very noticeable.
This election has been long planned and when it became clear something was happening it was a masterstroke to put it around that the GE would be in October - I fell for that as OGH knows.
I guess there is enormous capacity within CCHQ to deliver leaflets to target voters and that that is not matched by its opponents.
No doubt the LDs here will not just be leafletting by themselves but as with the Cumbria elections external help will be drawn in even to the point of reducing votes elsewhere.
How much did CCHQ have to pay to run that ? Coalition of Chaos or what.
Rather than claiming that Remainers are being ignored or not persuaded I think it is important that they contribute to the debate about Brexit in a positive way by arguing for the maximum possible Single Market access even if this involves compromises such as giving EU citizens enhanced rights of access or movement or employment for an extended period. There is, of course, no guarantee that such a deal will be on the table but I do think that the government should be looking for it and a consensus between the soft leavers and the former remainers seems the best way to push us in that direction.
One was marginally more effective because the other included people who had been more prominent in politics for years, but neither came out looking anything but very grubby.
More important than Brexit IMO.
If a leader polls more strongly than their party (and their opposite number vice versa) what would you do?
I suspect they've found there are some voters who will find it easier to vote 'May' than 'Tory'....and the manifesto certainly demonstrates that May's pitch is unlike any we've seen from the Tories in 40 years.....
No chance. UKIP will be blamed for his defeat, not him.
Fortunately for the Tories enough of the nation seems willing to swallow it whole in the hope that the strong and stable Mrs May will make a decent fist of not putting them personally in the workhouse.
Conservative landslide looms ....
FWIW I think the gap here is largely one of rhetoric. May isn't a socialist.
We had 13 years under Labour during which time the grass grew very long. At least Theresa comes equipped with a strimmer.
So I've given up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39968776
What happens depends entirely on Corbyn, his views and the pressure upon him. He may very well conclude he has done his bit. There will be huge pressure for him to stay from supporters. Momentum must already be planning rallies.
The question will be resolved by those closest to him, whether they pit him or the party first, whether they could stomach Cooper and whether there is a viable alternative.
The only way he goes quietly is if he suffers a crushing defeat.