LAB gain Llanfynydd ward from CON on Flintshire County Council.
This is a shock (and my home ward). Tories have held the seat for last three elections. It is also the home ward for the sitting LAB MP in Alyn and Deeside - a target seat.
Labour's national election co-ordinator fronting up on Sky News. What did he do to deserve to get that job?
Probably "OK, if nobody else will, I'll do it...."
Every large organisation needs someone who can be trotted out to resign on demand; this is just an extended seven week interview.
I always liked the PG Woodhouse anecdote of the workings of a large American department store in the 20s. When a customer was really upset, and demanded to see the management etc, the manager would haul in the guilty party and fire them, in front of the customer. After the customer had left, the randomly picked clerk from the office would be given a small financial bonus and sent back to his work....
Con gain from Lab in Copeland / Cleaton Moor East on 10% swing.
The Copeland by-election really was the first sign of the Tory earthquake we're about to witness in the next 5 weeks, wasn't it.
But Cleator Moor East?! Cleator Moor is one of the grimmest places in England (apologies to any Cleator Moorians, but it is). That the Tories are winning here shows the extent of the political realignment over the last few years.
It took a lot of hard work over the last few weeks to gain this seat which the LDs have held for 8 years, as Mortimer says the fact Chris Whitbread, the excellent Tory candidate, took it by 144 votes (even with a recount) made it all worthwhile
Bulkington (Nuneaton). Huge Conservative GAIN Lab 24%, down from 36% Con 76%, up from 36% UKIP did not stand - they got 28% in 2014
Boy am I looking forward to June 8th. It comes 5 days after my busiest time of year: I'm going to be canvassing/leafleting Mon-Wednesday then telling/knocking up all day Thurs. Cannot wait!
"In a flurry of activity that has now seen over £23m traded on Betfair's Exchange overall, and over £2m in the past 48hrs, a huge number of individual bets have been placed on Marine Le Pen. 80% of all bets placed have been on the Front National candidate, in a situation that mimics what happened in November of last year during the US Presidential election which saw Donald Trump swoop to power."
Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.
Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
CON candidate on June 8th Andrew Atkinson has just taken the Gresford seat from Labour with 73% of the vote (CON got 28% last time), LAB drop 36%>16% and LIB DEM drop 36%>10%
1/4 is not a great return, but looks pretty nailed on now.
CON candidate on June 8th Andrew Atkinson has just taken the Gresford seat from Labour with 73% of the vote (CON got 28% last time), LAB drop 36%>16% and LIB DEM drop 36%>10%
1/4 is not a great return, but looks pretty nailed on now.
Maybe all my facebook likes for Mrs May have finally made an impact with my extended North Welsh family!
Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.
Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.
Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
In Tamworth UKIP got 11% compared to 18% at the general election. Shows their popular vote is holding up at slightly more than half of what they got in 2015, in line with the opinion polls. Useful information IMO.
Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.
Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
Labour gained both in 2012.
In both cases, losses to Independent - as in 2012. I am really disappointed with Plaid response in both seats - only fielding 1 candidate in Merthyr (they ran the council here many years ago) and especially in BG where they almost won in last WA election yet only fielded 3 candidates. They have a very poor presence in both seats which should have been ripe for taking!
"In a flurry of activity that has now seen over £23m traded on Betfair's Exchange overall, and over £2m in the past 48hrs, a huge number of individual bets have been placed on Marine Le Pen. 80% of all bets placed have been on the Front National candidate, in a situation that mimics what happened in November of last year during the US Presidential election which saw Donald Trump swoop to power."
To me, that doesn't indicate smart money.
We'll see.
Let's hope it's not smart money. Given the scenarios where MLP might win, I'm reminded of the suspicious trading in airline options the week before 9/11
Perhaps the Surete should put in a call to see whose money is going on
Comments
This is a shock (and my home ward). Tories have held the seat for last three elections. It is also the home ward for the sitting LAB MP in Alyn and Deeside - a target seat.
Patrick English @PME_Politics 55s55 seconds ago
The Lib Dem fightback in Somerset is not going to plan - they've just lost 4 seats to the Conservatives. Highlights huge challenge they face
https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/860289063403868160
The Lib Dem fightback in Somerset is not going to plan - they've just lost 4 seats to the Conservatives. Highlights huge challenge they face"
https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/860289063403868160?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
https://twitter.com/richie_1994wale/status/860288475152732162
Bonkers. Great, but bonkers all the same.
https://twitter.com/eefnews/status/860290603661357056
So far not looking like great results for @Plaid_Cymru in Ceredigion. Not what they would want to boost challenge for the seat in June.
LAB have lost another seat to IND - this time one of the two seats the held in core LAB territory in Coedpoeth.
From a betting perspective, I'd say the 1-4 available on a Tory gain on May the 8th is a good return.
Bulkington (Nuneaton). Huge Conservative GAIN
Lab 24%, down from 36%
Con 76%, up from 36%
UKIP did not stand - they got 28% in 2014
Con 8342
Lab 6107
UKIP 1914
Greens 605
LD 454
Con 47.88%
Lab 35.05%
UKIP 10.99%
Greens 3.47%
LD 2.61%
Interesting that UKIP are still polling over 10% in this Middle England area.
edit: now 63 (-8)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/3c6a4e42-9efd-4440-89df-647121c87452/wales-local-elections-2017
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/860294036002926593
Tories picking up votes and seats from both LAB and LIBDEMs in this high Leave voting seat.
It would be interesting if @shadsy is seeing the same thing;
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/french-politics/french-presidential-election-betting-odds-wednesday-3-may-030517-299.html
"In a flurry of activity that has now seen over £23m traded on Betfair's Exchange overall, and over £2m in the past 48hrs, a huge number of individual bets have been placed on Marine Le Pen. 80% of all bets placed have been on the Front National candidate, in a situation that mimics what happened in November of last year during the US Presidential election which saw Donald Trump swoop to power."
To me, that doesn't indicate smart money.
We'll see.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860294541471076352
Cumbria have the best website, they have a log of the declarations in chronological order.
https://twitter.com/DrGABaines/status/860294411258933250
Where's still good to get on at 10 seats or less? I've already got 30 quid on at 10/1 at various places.
When and where could we see the first one?
Which seat is relevant to Tamworth local result tonight?
http://cardiff.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=37&RPID=1001247971&LLL=0
If only just over 10% of seats declared that surely suggests Con on course for far more gains than predicted?
Though of course results so far may not be typical.
http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/division.asp?division=Yewdale&district=Carlisle&title=Yewdale
The Tamworth constituency also includes some rural areas from Lichfield District which are very Conservative indeed.
UKIP wipeout could help Con more at GE if media narrative is that UKIP completely finished.
CON candidate on June 8th Andrew Atkinson has just taken the Gresford seat from Labour with 73% of the vote (CON got 28% last time), LAB drop 36%>16% and LIB DEM drop 36%>10%
1/4 is not a great return, but looks pretty nailed on now.
1997: 7,496 votes
2001: 4,598 votes
2005: 2,569 votes
https://twitter.com/KHemingwayITV/status/860296827165454342
https://twitter.com/DeansOfCardiff/status/860296942047383553
Nuneaton Lab parliamentary candidate has lost his seat on Warwicks council and has blamed Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/sloughobserver/status/860296067677597697
Perhaps the Surete should put in a call to see whose money is going on