Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses
I think Lab ad bedrock in Herts, and the few Lab supporters in the shires often quite like the hard left.
But Tories gain Boston North from UKIP; Sir/Lord/Professor Nuttall should be worried....
Did a kipper stand?
Nuttall is toast, but I have a bet with isam that kippers will not get over 15% in any seat at the GE.
I am actually amazed to be on that bet. I can't believe you took it. Ukip must be odds on to get over 20% in Thurrock alone... then again, I've been wrong before
I am no expert but am I right in thinking tonights results will largely confirm the polls
Circa 47 - 26 - 10 - 5
I'm also no expert, but I'm skeptical that these results are particularly readacrossable to the GE VI polling. No doubt lots of journos will try to imply figures etc.
They are most useful for indicating areas where the local parties are unusually strong/weak - which is useful for individual seat bets etc.
Looking for results/areas where UKIP *doesn't* collapse could well be quite profitable if the seat odds are calibrated to the national polling.
I am no expert but am I right in thinking tonights results will largely confirm the polls
Circa 47 - 26 - 10 - 5
I'm also no expert, but I'm skeptical that these results are particularly readacrossable to the GE VI polling. No doubt lots of journos will try to imply figures etc.
They are most useful for indicating areas where the local parties are unusually strong/weak - which is useful for individual seat bets etc.
It'd take a brave man to bet on Labour in Wrexham right now.
I am no expert but am I right in thinking tonights results will largely confirm the polls
Circa 47 - 26 - 10 - 5
I am not sure about that Mr. G., and one has to remember the numbers of votes cast in some of these elections is very small. All in all I do not believe that council elections provide any real guide as to a GE result.
That said, I always thought the the perceived wisdom was that the governing party should lose seats at the mid-term local elections. That does not seem to be happening this time, quite the reverse. It is still early in the count but the Conservatives are adding to their seat total so far. I think I might take the bus into town tomorrow and see about getting a couple of bets on big Conservative majorities (150+) at the GE.
Labour spokesman on Sky on being told his party may have lost Merthyr Tydfil which has been Labour since Keir Hardie was elected Labour's MP way back in 1900 'well clearly there are challenges for the Labour Party', you don't say!!
I am no expert but am I right in thinking tonights results will largely confirm the polls
Circa 47 - 26 - 10 - 5
I'm also no expert, but I'm skeptical that these results are particularly readacrossable to the GE VI polling. No doubt lots of journos will try to imply figures etc.
They are most useful for indicating areas where the local parties are unusually strong/weak - which is useful for individual seat bets etc.
I would agree but it does indicate a direction of travel.
The other problem facing labour is how they defend themselves under the fierce spotlight of the media, and less than five weeks to a GE
Labour spokesman on Sky on being told his party may have lost Merthyr Tydfil which has been Labour since Keir Hardie was elected Labour's MP way back in 1900 'well clearly there are challenges for the Labour Party', you don't say!!
The upside to Corbyn only working office hours is that I won't have to stay up till silly-o'clock to watch him fail to resign.
Given he takes a day off for every weekend day worked....So thats 7 week GE campaign, 14 days in holiday accrued....so going to take him at least 3 weeks before he comes back to work and resigns.
Looks like a good night for the Tories, but this far at least, maybe just a tad short of their expectations?
Peter. I'm surprised you didn't invoke the late Anthony King who, according to many PBers, would proclaim whenever the Tories failed to achieve complete electoral domination,
The upside to Corbyn only working office hours is that I won't have to stay up till silly-o'clock to watch him fail to resign.
Given he takes a day off for every weekend day worked....So thats 7 week GE campaign, 14 days in holiday accrued....so going to take him at least 3 weeks before he comes back to work and resigns.
LAB lose Ponciau to IND - their vote dropping 70% (yes, 70%). CON gain Marford from LIBDEM, seeing their vote rise from 29% to 60% in a 5-way race this time. LAB gain Maesydre from LIBDEM - vote rises from 24% to 44%, 4 way race both times.
And former LIBDEM council leader loses bid to return to council.
LIBDEMS and LAB having a bad night (but a couple of gains to offset the gloom) here - CON and IND having a good one.
Comments
(((Harry Hayfield))) @HarryHayfield 3m3 minutes ago
#Plaid GAIN #Aberporth from Gethin James (former UKIP election candidate) on #Ceredigion #outforthecount
#PembsLGE Verification is nearly finished. County Council Election count starts at 9am tomorrow & the Town/Community at 10am.
http://elections-public.cmis.uk.com/election/Electiondetails/2/21
Rhys Williams @RhysWilliams124 4m4 minutes ago
Labour HOLD Lower Loughour with 602 votes
[kudos to RobD for the spreadsheet BTW]
Circa 47 - 26 - 10 - 5
England
Conservatives 45 seats (+21)
Labour 11 (-15)
Liberal Democrats 4 (-2)
Independent 3 (+2)
Greens 1
Ukip 0 (-6)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/04/council-local-general-election-mayoral-results-england-scotland-wales
The No UKIP seat bets look fairly safe. Now 1/5 BF
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/860284014082523136
Some talk of Labour losing control in Merthyr - where they won 23 or 33 seats in 2012. #LocalElections2017
LAB up +5
CON up +24!
I think that's right - looks like a two-member ward, as there were 2 x Lab and 2 x Con candidates?
https://twitter.com/StevenageBC/status/860281017227149313
They are most useful for indicating areas where the local parties are unusually strong/weak - which is useful for individual seat bets etc.
Looking for results/areas where UKIP *doesn't* collapse could well be quite profitable if the seat odds are calibrated to the national polling.
Labour 36 seats (-1)
Independent 16 (-1)
Conservative 9 (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6 (+2)
Plaid Cymru 2 (-1)
Green 0
Ukip 0
Seems like more.
That said, I always thought the the perceived wisdom was that the governing party should lose seats at the mid-term local elections. That does not seem to be happening this time, quite the reverse. It is still early in the count but the Conservatives are adding to their seat total so far. I think I might take the bus into town tomorrow and see about getting a couple of bets on big Conservative majorities (150+) at the GE.
http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/division.asp?division=DaltonNorth&district=Barrow&title=DaltonNorth
http://cumbria.gov.uk/election2013/results/text/division.asp?division=DaltonNorth&district=Barrow&title=Dalton North
The other problem facing labour is how they defend themselves under the fierce spotlight of the media, and less than five weeks to a GE
"It's a terrible night for the Conservatives!"
Someone call Sky News!
https://twitter.com/AdamMarkDavis/status/860286631714140160
On the Tories there at 4-1...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860287094941528065
http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/division.asp?division=NewbarnsParkside&district=Barrow&title=NewbarnsParkside
http://cumbria.gov.uk/election2013/results/text/division.asp?division=NewbarnsParkside&district=Barrow&title=Newbarns and Parkside
Bodes very, very well for the GE.
LAB lose Ponciau to IND - their vote dropping 70% (yes, 70%).
CON gain Marford from LIBDEM, seeing their vote rise from 29% to 60% in a 5-way race this time.
LAB gain Maesydre from LIBDEM - vote rises from 24% to 44%, 4 way race both times.
And former LIBDEM council leader loses bid to return to council.
LIBDEMS and LAB having a bad night (but a couple of gains to offset the gloom) here - CON and IND having a good one.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/860287696043995136
https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/860287440585707520
3m
Britain Elects @britainelects
Tories gain both Grange & Kingsway and Barton & Tredworth (Gloucestershire) from Labour. UKIP vote collapses.
I agree there's no value on Sedgefield and Hartlepool.
http://www.tamworth.gov.uk/sites/default/files/councillors_docs/SCC-ELECTIONS-RESULTS.pdf
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/860288553779068928
Macron 1.12/3
Le Pen 9.2/6