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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the latest numbers on what seems a bad night for LAB check

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Artist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.

    Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
    Labour gained both in 2012.
    Well Corbyn is doing at least as badly as Brown in 2009 but then Brown had the excuse he was in government, Corbyn is supposed to get the protest vote
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.

    Yet losing control of Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent? These are areas you are supposed to be able to put a donkey up with a red rosette on and he would still win!
    A donkey Maybe, but Jeremy Corbyn no.
    Fair comment
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Dunno - is there a clear picture yet? Looks like Labour doing ok in Newport, eg, so unclear if the big lndslide is on.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    This looks fantastic for the Tories...

    ... my worry if the trends carry on throughout the results is that Corbyn, who never wanted to fight a GE and who might not want to see his party wiped off the map, may use this disaster as the hook to just throw in the towel and someone half normal like Benn comes in as caretaker and rescues Labour.

    Could that happen?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    OK. updated Warwickshire enough so it turns up as a gain on the summary. Once it's fully in I'll try and finish it off and correct my notional values to match the BBC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
    Tories win by election in Gillingham Town in North Dorset
    https://twitter.com/NorthDorset/status/860291393952116736
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Blaenau Gwent Labour candidate blames the chnages to bin collections for thir troubles
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories have gained 2 seats from the LDs in Tim Farron's area:

    http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/district.asp?district=Lakeland
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    This looks fantastic for the Tories...

    ... my worry if the trends carry on throughout the results is that Corbyn, who never wanted to fight a GE and who might not want to see his party wiped off the map, may use this disaster as the hook to just throw in the towel and someone half normal like Benn comes in as caretaker and rescues Labour.

    Could that happen?

    Nah.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    (((Harry Hayfield)))‏ @HarryHayfield

    After 17 seats declared on #Ceredigion, #Plaid 34%, #Ind 33%, #LibDem 28%, #Con 3%, #Lab 2%, #Green 0%. Swing: 4% from #Plaid to #LibDem
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    OK. updated Warwickshire enough so it turns up as a gain on the summary. Once it's fully in I'll try and finish it off and correct my notional values to match the BBC.

    Looking forward to seeing the data, thanks again.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    AndyJS said:

    In Tamworth UKIP got 11% compared to 18% at the general election. Shows their popular vote is holding up at slightly more than half of what they got in 2015, in line with the opinion polls. Useful information IMO.

    Yes, But with UKIP failing to keep any of there seats so far, I could see them struggle to find people to stand as General Election candidates.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    felix said:

    Dunno - is there a clear picture yet? Looks like Labour doing ok in Newport, eg, so unclear if the big lndslide is on.

    Go back to 2012 - Newport was one of only two Welsh Councils that Labour held - looks like a lot of winding the clock back ...

  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    LDs going backwards in both Wales and England at present - against a mid-Coalition-era baseline.
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember that alot of these Labour seats were won by Ed Miliband in his pomp, so it's a very high bar for Corbyn to cross.

    Amused at the notion of Miliband ever having pomp; but everything is relative. :smile:

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Wrexham to remain NOC
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Final results in in Wrexham and final tallies are (with change against 2012):

    Ind 25 (+7)
    Lab 12 (-9)
    Con 9 (+4)
    PC 3 (+2)
    LD 2 (-2)

    NOC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Penddu said:

    felix said:

    Dunno - is there a clear picture yet? Looks like Labour doing ok in Newport, eg, so unclear if the big lndslide is on.

    Go back to 2012 - Newport was one of only two Welsh Councils that Labour held - looks like a lot of winding the clock back ...

    Yes, Tories can gain a majority in Wales without winning Newport it seems
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    Labour has got a horrible decision to make on what seats it tries to work and spend money on saving. Pitch it wrong, and all that election money will have been wasted. Looking like trying to save seats 100-125 as a firewall is a sensible strategy, but a dreadful admission of the scale of the rejection it is facing.

    The LibDems face a similar problem, but on a smaller scale.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Sky: Con gaining 115 seats in England would be good.

    Well they are already +52. That may include Wales but even so they must be on course for miles more than +115.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Cumbria is a NOC Hold.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    The fact that a working-class Middle England town like Tamworth is being written off by Labour supporters as unwinnable sums up precisely their problems in my opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
    Our private schools are the best schools in the world and provide scholarships and bursaries too, politics of envy will not save Labour
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
    You mean a key Trot aspiration that no right minded person would like to see realised?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Overall so far:

    Con gained 12 from LD
    LD gained 5 from Con
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Right, off to bed but the blue wave is starting to rise, I expect it will surge further tomorrow
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    LDs hold Eastleigh Central, some better news for the yellows there
    https://twitter.com/edwardjsault/status/860285296897863680
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Dorset is a Con HOLD too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Hampshire also a Con HOLD.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Goodnight all - keep those blue flags flying high!
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Mortimer said:

    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
    You mean a key Trot aspiration that no right minded person would like to see realised?
    It's nothing to do with Trotskyism, and the vast majority of people would back it if, as I said, the reality and significance of these institutions were laid bare.

    Trotskyism? Isn't that some kind of cult where older men abuse younger members?

    David Cornwell, who writes as John le Carré, would back it. Any decent person would back it. My concept of "decent" seems diametrically opposed to yours of "right minded".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Labour politician who lost Copeland by-election loses her council seat

    Wonder if Jezza will still be on the Christmas Multi-Faith Winter Holiday Card?
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Final results for Flintshire County Council (which contains target seats Alyn & Deeside and Delyn):

    Lab vote down 5%, Con vote up 3%, Ind vote up 7%, LibDem % unchanged, Plaid down 2%

    Lab 34 (+3)
    Ind 25 (+2)
    Con 6 (-2)
    LD 5 (-2)
    PC 0 (-1)

    NOC (no change)

    Make of that what you will.

    I say: no LD surge, Lab>Con swing 4% but the blummin' Independent vote share makes any analysis meaningless.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
    Our private schools are the best schools in the world and provide scholarships and bursaries too, politics of envy will not save Labour
    Envy? You must be joking! But I realise you aren't. There's a total disconnect here, between your and Mortimer's attitude on one side and mine and David Cornwell's on the other.

    "It is difficult to imagine the reform of British society without the abolition of the public schools, starting with Eton... I am afraid, when I'm dictator of England, I shall do it."
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    RobD said:

    Dorset is a Con HOLD too.

    However, in a twist, the Con leader there has lost his seat to the LDs, reports the BBC.

    Tessa Munt has taken the Wells seat from the Tories.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Labour leader of Merthyr council loses his seat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    Cyan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    Is Corbyn proposing to make abolishing the monarchy Labour Party policy? NickP was agreeing the a guardian article that suggested he should go big and radical, all out, and that would certainly be it.

    That would be great, but I doubt it will happen. If Corbyn had a stronger backbone he would
    say

    • leave NATO
    • get rid of nuclear weapons
    • abolish the monarchy
    • smash the private schools by one means or another
    It'd be interesting to see just how low the poll ratings go.
    NATO membership, nuclear weapons, the monarchy, private schools - none of these would remain if their reality and significance were laid bare and debated.

    Want to know which of them is the key? The last one: the private schools. I haven't met a single person with a deep understanding of Britain who doesn't realise that.
    Our private schools are the best schools in the world and provide scholarships and bursaries too, politics of envy will not save Labour
    Envy? You must be joking! But I realise you aren't. There's a total disconnect here.
    No there isn't, that is why the Tories will also allow grammar schools to expand too
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    So far on the Labour defence list in England (maj<25%), they've lost 22 and held 9.

    The 9 they've held are:

    Warwick West
    Hitchin North
    Gloucester / Coney Hill & Matson
    Carlisle / Castle
    Carlisle / Harraby South
    Forest of Dean / Cinderford
    North Warwickshire / Polesworth
    Colchester / Maypole
    Copeland / Egremont
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Rob - sorry to be fussy but a minor point on your main spreadsheet as I think it's open to misunderstanding - in the councillors table the word dissolution should just be above the 2nd column (2013) not over the 3rd column as well (2017).

    Otherwise it's not clear that the 2017 column represents councillors elected tonight.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    NeilVW said:

    RobD said:

    Dorset is a Con HOLD too.

    However, in a twist, the Con leader there has lost his seat to the LDs, reports the BBC.

    Tessa Munt has taken the Wells seat from the Tories.
    So the Conservative leader of Somerset CC bites the dust. Is that as well as the Conservative leader of Dorset CC? Or am I just being a bit optimistic?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Con HOLD Somerset! A vital result.... titters
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    New thread!
This discussion has been closed.