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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the latest numbers on what seems a bad night for LAB check out RobD’s great spreadsheet

Rob’s great resource is here and part of what it is showing is featured above.

Read the full story here

dixiedean

First like Macron

Pulpstar

dixiedean said:

First like Macron

I bloody hope so !

Pauly

Fourth like Diane Abbott

Pulpstar

My model has

Wrexham 50.82%
Labour 27.92%

at the GE by the way.

kle4

No pressure rob

Pulpstar

HI IAIN !!

Pulpstar

Rob's spreadsheet just got a shout from Iain Dale

HYUFD

Labour group leader on Warwickshire CC gone
https://twitter.com/THENUNEATONFOX/status/860268364161220614

MTimT

Wrexham is the Tories' target #25, with a current Lab majority of only 1831. Seems a guaranteed goner in the GE.

Pulpstar

MTimT said:

Wrexham is the Tories' target #25, with a current Lab majority of only 1831. Seems a guaranteed goner in the GE.

Yep it is gone.

dixiedean

Pauly said:

Fourth like Diane Abbott

HYUFD

National tally so far

Tories 15 (+3)
Lab 5 (-3)
LD 4 (0)
Ind 17 (0)
UKIP 0 (-1)
Green 0 (0)
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/860273122376810496

BenedictWhite

Thanks to Rob for the spreadsheet!

Also interesting results in so far. Not looking good for Labour.

AndyJS

Labour have lost Bryn Cefn in Wrexham where they were defending a 44% majority.
Swing = 30%.

http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=52&RPID=1001115328&LLL=undefined
http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=1000000007&RPID=1001115029&LLL=undefined

kle4

TudorRose said:

ThreeQuidder said:

LBC just namechecked the spreadsheet!

That's because it's very good; great job, Rob!

I like it as it is a bit more elegant and not over cluttered. You want the full data later, but simple and clean results, even if it needs tweaking as you go along? Invaluable.

And a good night to political anoraks everywhere. These are our times.

MTimT

The reality of Labour's woes are really only just hitting me. Wipeout in Scotland in 2015. Wipeout in Wales in 2017. Whatever happened to the Celtic Firewall?

Floater

12:26am
Farage not hopeful
Hope are not high for Ukip in these local elections - even Farage seems to expect the party to get a battering tonight. In an interview on LBC, he said:

"It’s not just Labour that’s going to lose seats tonight – and I’m very glad I’m coming off air in a moment.”

nunu

MTimT said:

Wrexham is the Tories' target #25, with a current Lab majority of only 1831. Seems a guaranteed goner in the GE.

whereabouts in Britain are u orginally from Tim, out of interest?

RobD

Oh neat!

Big_G_NorthWales

Never mind labour can put up Diane Abbott tomorrow as she will confuse everyone with her variable figures and general waffle.

My son called tonight and he said her interview was the funniest, and at the same time, the most worrying political broadcast he had ever seen. He kept playing it - it was so enjoyable

RobD

Pulpstar said:

Rob's spreadsheet just got a shout from Iain Dale

Hah, I had it on mute

AndyJS

Thanks to Rob for a great resource.

another_richard

AndyJS said:

Labour have lost Bryn Cefn in Wrexham where they were defending a 44% majority.
Swing = 30%.

http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=52&RPID=1001115328&LLL=undefined
http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=1000000007&RPID=1001115029&LLL=undefined

Yet again predictions based upon local by-elections from many months ago are going to look very silly.

IIRC Rallings and Thrasher were predicting that Labour would get the same vote share as in 2013.

Floater

HYUFD said:

Labour group leader on Warwickshire CC gone
https://twitter.com/THENUNEATONFOX/status/860268364161220614

oh dear - ha hah hah ah

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

Thanks to Rob for a great resource.

Yes excellent, thanks

MTimT

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Wrexham is the Tories' target #25, with a current Lab majority of only 1831. Seems a guaranteed goner in the GE.

whereabouts in Britain are u orginally from Tim, out of interest?

Plymouth by birth, Cornwall by heritage. The surname is a Tre- name.

HYUFD

Floater said:

HYUFD said:

Labour group leader on Warwickshire CC gone
https://twitter.com/THENUNEATONFOX/status/860268364161220614

oh dear - ha hah hah ah

I doubt he will be the last either

ThreeQuidder

I was drifting off but there was a mention of Ruth Davidson and a few seconds later a distinct call of "klaxon". I think Iain Dale lurks BTL.

Unless he has a pseudonym...

HYUFD

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Pulpstar

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 8m8 minutes ago

Liberal Democrats HOLD Offa (Wrexham)

Offa's Dyke !

nunu

MTimT said:

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Wrexham is the Tories' target #25, with a current Lab majority of only 1831. Seems a guaranteed goner in the GE.

whereabouts in Britain are u orginally from Tim, out of interest?

Plymouth by birth, Cornwall by heritage. The surname is a Tre- name.</blockquote

Interesting.

kjohnw

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

RobinWiggs

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

Labour have lost Bryn Cefn in Wrexham where they were defending a 44% majority.
Swing = 30%.

http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=52&RPID=1001115328&LLL=undefined
http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=1000000007&RPID=1001115029&LLL=undefined

Yet again predictions based upon local by-elections from many months ago are going to look very silly.

IIRC Rallings and Thrasher were predicting that Labour would get the same vote share as in 2013.

Nah - it'll go. The CON candidate is again Andrew Atkinson, a very popular local campaigner who did well in the assembly election - and who has appeal across traditional boundaries. An important consideration in Wales where many still find the brand difficult.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

HYUFD

kjohnw said:

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

He will stay, he has a 'mandate' from members, the voters just need to be better educated!

chestnut

ThreeQuidder said:

I was drifting off but there was a mention of Ruth Davidson and a few seconds later a distinct call of "klaxon". I think Iain Dale lurks BTL.

Unless he has a pseudonym...

Speaking of Klaxons and surges, where is that full blown Scottish poll that Divvie was mentioning this morning?

HYUFD

7% swing to Tories in Besses Ward which would be enough to take Bury South https://twitter.com/BuryTories/status/860274882860404737

ThreeQuidder

LBC predicting this will at least unwind the Tories losses in 2013.

PaulM

I love the spreadsheet and I love that there are other people out there who would enjoy creating something like that. We are not alone...

RobD

PaulM said:

I love the spreadsheet and I love that there are other people out there who would enjoy creating something like that. We are not alone...

There are dozens of us!

MTimT

AndyJS said:

Labour have lost Bryn Cefn in Wrexham where they were defending a 44% majority.
Swing = 30%.

http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=52&RPID=1001115328&LLL=undefined
http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=1000000007&RPID=1001115029&LLL=undefined

On that swing with UNS, the Tories would get all of their top 150 target seats from Labour and probably more - Islington South and Finsbury is #150 at 28.71

Fantasyland, I know. But 'king hell!

HYUFD

Labour lost all 3 of their Essex CC seats in Harlow, Corbyn was there just over a week ago in this supposed Labour 'target' seat
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/860276898655596544

ThreeQuidder

Matt Zarb Cousin on LBC: Labour losses tonight will cause no changes in the GE campaign.

TudorRose

kjohnw said:

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

Corbyn wouldn't stand down when his own MPs had no confidence in him, why would he worry about a few voters?

nunu

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

hertfordshire is a poor area for lab- they have few votes to lose.

Pulpstar

Labour bod on LBC spinning like a washing machine

marke09

Port Talbot count delayed as postal votes not arrived

foxinsoxuk

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

I think Lab ad bedrock in Herts, and the few Lab supporters in the shires often quite like the hard left.

MTimT

nunu said:

Interesting.

And you?

marke09

Peter Black of Lib Dems says Tory vote in Swansea looks very high

HYUFD

Tories gain Basildon Westley Heights from UKIP
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860277670369734657

TudorRose

foxinsoxuk said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

I think Lab ad bedrock in Herts, and the few Lab supporters in the shires often quite like the hard left.

But Tories gain Boston North from UKIP; Sir/Lord/Professor Nuttall should be worried....

Scrapheap_as_was

Pulpstar said:

Labour bod on LBC spinning like a washing machine

He's a great lol. Will they have eoin on soon?

nunu

MTimT said:

nunu said:

Interesting.

And you?

I was born in london and never left! my parents from sub-continent.

Pulpstar

marke09 said:

Peter Black of Lib Dems says Tory vote in Swansea looks very high

My model has Swansea as follows at the GE:

LAB Swansea East 30.41% 44.43%
LAB Swansea West 35.23% 36.10%

david_herdson

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

That's not really very helpful though if Con are up 18%.

kjohnw

TudorRose said:

kjohnw said:

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

Corbyn wouldn't stand down when his own MPs had no confidence in him, why would he worry about a few voters?

Yes you have a point, one wonders what will it take for him to fall on his sword?

PaulM

nunu said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

hertfordshire is a poor area for lab- they have few votes to lose.

nunu said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

hertfordshire is a poor area for lab- they have few votes to lose.

There's pockets though. Stevenage and Hitchen for instance. And it isn't so long since Watford, St Albans, Hemel and Welwyn Hatfield all had Labour MPs.

IanB2

Gospel Oak by-election LB Camden, Lab hold 50% (+2%), LDs second 20% (+13%)

NeilVW

Another Lab Wrexham seat gone, this time to Plaid.

edit to add: They won't have too many left at this rate, I think they started the night at 12.

RobD

I think there was a CON GAIN from LD, Lodmoor On Dorset

HYUFD

Labour in trouble in north Cardiff
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860278585432604674

marke09

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted
BBC Wales Politics‏Verified account @WalesPolitics 1m1 minute ago

Welsh Labour source says the 'heavily briefed' Tory advance in Wales is 'yet to materialise' #LocalElections

Pulpstar

HYUFD said:

Labour in trouble in north Cardiff
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860278585432604674

Model:
CON Cardiff North 56.55% 29.91%

foxinsoxuk

TudorRose said:

foxinsoxuk said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

I think Lab ad bedrock in Herts, and the few Lab supporters in the shires often quite like the hard left.

But Tories gain Boston North from UKIP; Sir/Lord/Professor Nuttall should be worried....

Did a kipper stand?

Nuttall is toast, but I have a bet with isam that kippers will not get over 15% in any seat at the GE.

Scrapheap_as_was

PaulM said:

nunu said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

hertfordshire is a poor area for lab- they have few votes to lose.

nunu said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Tories up 18% on 2013 in Hertfordshire so far, UKIP down 25%, Lab unchanged, LDs up 3%
https://twitter.com/MrJCrouch/status/860274391619440640

Looks like some UKIP voters are returning to Labour to cancel out their losses

hertfordshire is a poor area for lab- they have few votes to lose.

There's pockets though. Stevenage and Hitchen for instance. And it isn't so long since Watford, St Albans, Hemel and Welwyn Hatfield all had Labour MPs.

We don't like to be reminded of this.

RobinWiggs

LAB lose another Wrexham seat, this time to PLAID, dropping from 55% last time to 3rd place and 28% this time.

Looking awful for them tonight.

nunu

marke09 said:

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted
BBC Wales Politics‏Verified account @WalesPolitics 1m1 minute ago

Welsh Labour source says the 'heavily briefed' Tory advance in Wales is 'yet to materialise' #LocalElections

marke09 said:

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted
BBC Wales Politics‏Verified account @WalesPolitics 1m1 minute ago

Welsh Labour source says the 'heavily briefed' Tory advance in Wales is 'yet to materialise' #LocalElections

There are hardly any results yet!

TudorRose

kjohnw said:

TudorRose said:

kjohnw said:

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

Corbyn wouldn't stand down when his own MPs had no confidence in him, why would he worry about a few voters?

Yes you have a point, one wonders what will it take for him to fall on his sword?

Someone giving it a helping hand?! Do Labour do grey suits?

RobinWiggs

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects · 2m2 minutes ago

Labour understand to be in trouble the northern portion of Cardiff.

Scrapheap_as_was

Corbyintes phoning in to lbc now.... time for bed

IanB2

Boston North also being called Con gain from UkIp

marke09

Geraint Thomas @thomas_geraint

First result in Newport. Labour hold on to their 3 seats in Alway / Canlyniad cyntaf Casnewydd - Llafur yn cadw eu 3 sedd yn

peter_from_putney

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

Labour have lost Bryn Cefn in Wrexham where they were defending a 44% majority.
Swing = 30%.

http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=52&RPID=1001115328&LLL=undefined
http://moderngov.wrexham.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=1000000007&RPID=1001115029&LLL=undefined

Yet again predictions based upon local by-elections from many months ago are going to look very silly.

IIRC Rallings and Thrasher were predicting that Labour would get the same vote share as in 2013.

Rallings & Thrasher have Labour losing 75 seats net, compare with Prof. Sephen Fisher who has them losing 315 seats in his albeit tongue in cheek prediction.

Pulpstar

Labour vote holding up where it is utterly useless.

HYUFD

marke09 said:

Prof Roger Scully Retweeted
BBC Wales Politics‏Verified account @WalesPolitics 1m1 minute ago

Welsh Labour source says the 'heavily briefed' Tory advance in Wales is 'yet to materialise' #LocalElections

Presumably he is not in Wrexham or Cardiff then

MTimT

nunu said:

MTimT said:

nunu said:

Interesting.

And you?

I was born in london and never left! my parents from sub-continent.

Ah. Lived in Ladbroke Grove, Parson's Green and Balham at various times. Spend a lot of time currently in Pakistan, mainly Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore.

PS Forgot Brixton!

marke09

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Labour GAIN Smithfield (Wrexham) from Plaid Cymru.

ThreeQuidder

Based on Matt Zarb Cousin's performance on LBC, the Labour line at this election is going to be "reverse cuts to X tax" as if this isn't the same as "raise X tax".

FF43

Labour have lost more than half the wards they were defending in England, according to the BBC news site. (Edit: so far declared)

marke09

very odd BBC Wales have all their Welsh language reporters at the count and are live on the BBC website - so why not on TV?

RobinWiggs

And then to confound things, LAB gain Smithfield in Wrexham.

But see their vote drop from 44% to 28% in a five-way race this time.

HYUFD

Tories now up 13 nationally, Labour down 10 and LDs down 1, Independents up 1 and UKIP down 3
https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860279246438232065

Big_G_NorthWales

FF43 said:

Labour have lost more than half the wards they were defending in England, according to the BBC news site

Do you know how many they would lose

alex.

If Islington North looks in danger might that be enough to persuade Corbyn to stand down...? Might need to act to keep his job!

MarqueeMark

TudorRose said:

kjohnw said:

TudorRose said:

kjohnw said:

The question is if it really is going to be a bad night for Labour will Corbyn stand down or cling on until the GE and watch labour get destroyed?

Corbyn wouldn't stand down when his own MPs had no confidence in him, why would he worry about a few voters?

Yes you have a point, one wonders what will it take for him to fall on his sword?

Someone giving it a helping hand?! Do Labour do grey suits?

Was it time it would have been the men in boiler suits....

HYUFD

Cons gain Spalding East from UKIP
https://twitter.com/richie_1994wale/status/860279887558520839

marke09

James Williams‏ @jamswilliams85

Plaid source from the Cardiff count: #GE2017 has had an affect. Some voters saying today they need to vote Lab to stop Theresa May's Tories.

david_herdson

RobinWiggs said:

And then to confound things, LAB gain Smithfield in Wrexham.

But see their vote drop from 44% to 28% in a five-way race this time.

From Plaid, not from a real party.

marke09

rof Roger Scully Retweeted
James Williams‏ @jamswilliams85 2m2 minutes ago

James Williams Retweeted James Williams

Second source, this time from the @WelshLibDems saying "Labour doing better than expected" because of #GE2017

nunu

MTimT said:

nunu said:

MTimT said:

nunu said:

Interesting.

And you?

I was born in london and never left! my parents from sub-continent.

Ah. Lived in Ladbroke Grove, Parson's Green and Balham at various times. Spend a lot of time currently in Pakistan, mainly Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore.

PS Forgot Brixton!

I've been to Pakistan only once when I was 14. Hated it! Family from Rawalpindi, also visited Muree and Peshawar. I hope you stay in "modern" areas with proper bathrooms.....

AndyJS

HYUFD said:

Tories gain Basildon Westley Heights from UKIP
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860277670369734657

It's actually the same person who was elected before. They defected from UKIP to Ind.

IanB2

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

Labour have lost more than half the wards they were defending in England, according to the BBC news site

Do you kow many they would lose

From the data above that would be about 275. With Scotland and Wales on top that must be heading for 500?

another_richard

david_herdson said:

RobinWiggs said:

And then to confound things, LAB gain Smithfield in Wrexham.

But see their vote drop from 44% to 28% in a five-way race this time.

From Plaid, not from a real party.

And its listed as an Ind win in 2012 here:

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2012/426/

IanB2

Sounds like LBC is using us for their data now

HYUFD

Tories hold Waltham Abbey and Chigwell and Loughton Broadway

https://twitter.com/eppingforestdc/status/860279678443163648
https://twitter.com/eppingforestdc/status/860280769557790720

marke09

Independent Gain New Quay Ceredigion from Independent

RobD

IanB2 said:

Sounds like LBC is using us for their data now

The fools!

Pulpstar

I'm on unders 4.5 at around 8-13 for Plaid. Losing seats to Labour, embarrassing.

RobinWiggs

2nd LAB gain in Wrexham - Chirk North. 2 way race this time and last - Lab vote rises from 46% to 51% this time - a 10 vote winning margin over IND.

Corbyn is safe, this result shows it all!