Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this electi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,758
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election

 

Read the full story here


«1345678

Comments

  • TheKrakenAwakesTheKrakenAwakes Posts: 553
    Am I first?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    This could get messy.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    edited May 2017
    I think 'rigging an election' is a slightly hyperbolic turn of phrase. Nobody is accused of stuffing ballots.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,376
    Ah, you might think – perhaps that’s because everyone in the know is sure that the CPS will decide not to prosecute.

    Perhaps the media is being careful not to preempt a prosecution. But don't worry, if the CPS prosecute, the media will go to town on it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,157
    Fifth
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    Sixth like Arsenal
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    Sixth... or is it 250,000 or 80 million or 10,000 or something...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Spare a thought for the CPS. Whatever they decide is going to be regarded by someone or other as a highly partisan decision.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Nope - Corbyn Labour ensures that whatever happens it will make no difference to the election outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    edited May 2017
    Typo said:

    I think 'rigging an election' is a slightly hyperbolic turn of phrase. Nobody is accused of stuffing ballots.

    No kidding. I think it likely there's been widespread flouting of the ruled in many quarters which needs punishing, but some of the language has been absurdist.

    By the by is it 30 people or 30 mPS, since I've seen the latter advanced many times.

    And haven't the other parties largely been quiet since they have their own skeletons? I can well believe the tories were worst offenders, but in a mudfight you all end up dirty.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    one of Theresa May’s closest advisors

    Did said advisor submit an election return?

    If not, what offence could he be charged with? Sitting in a hotel room?

    Desperate stuff.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    justin124 said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm no shill for May, but on the "meeting ordinary voters" - do you not think there is perhaps just the slightest security concern here ?

    I'm sure she will meet some but for obvious reasons she's not going to be able to do spontaneous canvassing in every Labour marginal.

    I remember John Major and his soapbox in the 1992 general election - at a time when the IRA was active in the UK, never mind random nutters. The security risks can be overblown. Daesh sympathisers are unlikely to be able to rustle up a suicide belt within the 10 minutes or so that she might be in a town centre.
    Harold Wilson was hit by a stinkbomb thrown at him by a schoolboy during the 1966 election but it didn't force him to hide away from the public. In those days the party leaders would address mass audiences in our major cities up and down the country with the broadcasters covering their speeches - including any heckling - in their news bulletins. That was genuine electioneering - rather than the pure farce we see today and which has been with us for 25 years.
    At the 1964 election, there was an incident where someone threw an egg at Alec Douglas-Home, who, as a former first-class cricketer, caught it without cracking the shell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Spare a thought for the CPS. Whatever they decide is going to be regarded by someone or other as a highly partisan decision.

    You'd have to hope that they haven't put themselves into an impossible position. There is no reason they would have done so. But they might have done so, particularly when you look at the previous head of the DPP.
    If they have done so, they deserve everything that will (in time) come to them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I am now of the view that Cons have deliberately had a bad opening week to stop Lab trying to decapitate Corbyn.

    Now the moment is passed Cons will now step up into high gear.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thetimes: Touring the country...today's cartoon by @mortenmorland http://thetim.es/2qzMhBA https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/859390257434939393/photo/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,326
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    Given that May sprung an election surprise to avoid that fate, there's got to be a strong chance she'll spring a second referendum surprise to avoid it too.

    She will offer the Brexiteers everything they ever dreamed of, and hence destroy them politically forever as it sinks in just what a disaster that would be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Spare a thought for the CPS. Whatever they decide is going to be regarded by someone or other as a highly partisan decision.

    Unenviable position to be in. If only TMay had called for the GE in time for this Thursday.!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    Alistair said:

    I am now of the view that Cons have deliberately had a bad opening week to stop Lab trying to decapitate Corbyn.

    Now the moment is passed Cons will now step up into high gear.

    Labour seem to be doing a good job of it without the Tories help.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    edited May 2017
    Typo said:

    I think 'rigging an election' is a slightly hyperbolic turn of phrase. Nobody is accused of stuffing ballots.

    Quite. And when the charges are announced the media won't be able to say much about it due to sub judice rules.

    I assume that any agents who may be under suspicion have been moved on though, it would be pretty careless to have them involved in this election.

    The whole issue of allocation of spending is a mess though, the Electoral Commission need to urgently clarify how the law will be interpreted well ahead of June 8th.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    FWIW, I wouldn't expect it to alter the election result in any meaningful way.

    May will be able to (truthfully) argue that it didn't happen on her watch, and the common thread here is an overzealous national campaign. Not the personal financial indiscretions or intrinsic dishonest motivations of the MPs on the naughty list.

    If there is one, the public interest in prosecution would be toward those at a national level who led this strategy, and to perhaps make an example of the most obvious colluders at a local level.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2017
    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Still, it's rather touching to see the naive faith that many LibDems have in this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    Alistair said:

    I am now of the view that Cons have deliberately had a bad opening week to stop Lab trying to decapitate Corbyn.

    Now the moment is passed Cons will now step up into high gear.

    I dont believe they'd deliberately had a bad week. The problem with that is sometimes things snowball and your little deliberate issue becomes unstoppable.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Ref the header piece, I doubt any arrests will occur in time for candidates to be deselected. The nomination papers for my own constituency (not one affected, for what it's worth), are ready to be handed in now.

    A candidate can of course always withdraw, a provision that lasts after close of nominations, but that relies on the candidate playing ball; they can't simply be denominated.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,614
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    Camilla Cavendish put forward a similar reason for the snap GE on last weeks BBC QuestionTime, and I think she nailed it when she suggested that May didn't want to be heading into a GE year in the midst of tough Brexit negociations. And it was an equally valid reason for turning down Sturgeon's demand for another Indy Referendum on the time table she wanted for the same reasons.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    My health stopped me from standing in 2015 and thus has come to quickly for me to stand this time.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Typo said:

    I think 'rigging an election' is a slightly hyperbolic turn of phrase. Nobody is accused of stuffing ballots.

    Completely agree.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    At least its not a bacon roll !!

    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/859391123185430530
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    You have to ask serious questions of the people in charge of the Tory GE team in 2015.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sixth... or is it 250,000 or 80 million or 10,000 or something...

    :lol: Brilliant!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Why would there be a by-election?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    Fenman said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    My health stopped me from standing in 2015 and thus has come to quickly for me to stand this time.
    I would have probably unseated Lady Nugee in 2015, but decided not to bother
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Giving Nuttall enough rope to hang himself with this election I assume as UKIP get at most half the votes they did in 2015.
    Then as May has to make concessions to the EU he storms back into a seat in a high profile BE !

    Plausible theory I think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Still, it's rather touching to see the naive faith that many LibDems have in this.

    Whistling to keep their spirits up.

    The Lib Dems were playing a long game - growing number of councillors - all ready for The Great Come-Back of 2020

    Sad, almost.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    I am now of the view that Cons have deliberately had a bad opening week to stop Lab trying to decapitate Corbyn.

    Now the moment is passed Cons will now step up into high gear.

    I dont believe they'd deliberately had a bad week. The problem with that is sometimes things snowball and your little deliberate issue becomes unstoppable.
    It has probably not even been a bad week in the grand scheme of things.

    2015 saw, I think, four consecutive bad months for the Tories, according to the media.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    I imagine he didn't stand at the GE for two reasons:

    1. He might not have won.
    2. He might have won.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    Given that May sprung an election surprise to avoid that fate, there's got to be a strong chance she'll spring a second referendum surprise to avoid it too.

    She will offer the Brexiteers everything they ever dreamed of, and hence destroy them politically forever as it sinks in just what a disaster that would be.
    That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,838
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    I am standing (again) for the Pirates in Vauxhall.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    edited May 2017
    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Why would there be a by-election?
    You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    So some people were bussed in to deliver some leaflets and knock on some doors, and this was declared as "national" and not "local" spending.

    And that's it...?!

    Come off it - new thread please. Desperate straw clutching by someone who the last line tells us is "a lib Dem activist". Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    david_herdson said:

    Typo said:

    I think 'rigging an election' is a slightly hyperbolic turn of phrase. Nobody is accused of stuffing ballots.

    Completely agree.
    Not least because while rules may have been broken and punishment deserved if so just for lack of regard for rules or intentional rule breaking, we don't have any way of knowing if it helped decide anything.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    It wasn't just the pay cut. I'd repeatedly get into trouble for saying things with those colourful metaphors and similies I use in PB thread headers.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    I take it there have been no new developments, given that this nonsense has been served up?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    I imagine he didn't stand at the GE for two reasons:

    1. He might not have won.
    2. He might have won.
    Personally I cant see why he would want to be an MP at all, and doubt he'd be all that good! He has done his job ,and gets all the good bits (TV appearances, radio show, after dinner speaking) without having to bother with the boring stuff. I think he would be good in the commons too, but lacklustre on the local nitty gritty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    JonCisBack said:

    So some people were bussed in to deliver some leaflets and knock on some doors, and this was declared as "national" and not "local" spending.

    And that's it...?!

    Come off it - new thread please. Desperate straw clutching by someone who the last line tells us is "a lib Dem activist". Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Rules is rules, and all parties have been fined for flagrant breaches. If the rules are unreasonable they must be changed, not ignored, and it's too widespread to be simple carelessness.

    Doesn't make it as big a thing as mark thinks and mike hopes, but it's not nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    I imagine he didn't stand at the GE for two reasons:

    1. He might not have won.
    2. He might have won.
    2. Perhaps a bigger concern to him than 1...........
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Or the wholesale and open sale of honours.

    Or that one with the Russian spy, the aristocrat and the call girl.

    Or Expenses.

    Or taking the country into war on a lie.

    Or lying about how the country was taken into war, after the event.

    Or ruling without parliament / taking arms against the king.

    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    As an aside, what scandal would you nominate as the largest British scandal ever?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    I am standing (again) for the Pirates in Vauxhall.
    Best of luck :)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Spare a thought for the CPS. Whatever they decide is going to be regarded by someone or other as a highly partisan decision.

    You'd have to hope that they haven't put themselves into an impossible position. There is no reason they would have done so. But they might have done so, particularly when you look at the previous head of the DPP.
    If they have done so, they deserve everything that will (in time) come to them.
    The sub judice rules on not publishing material likely to prejudice active proceedings kicks in when proceedings are brought. Anything the CPS does prior to bringing charges is technically outwith the rules, but has such enormous prejudicial potential that absent any other considerations it should be brought within them - because nothing is more likely to prejudice a potential juror than having it rammed down his throat that a lot of highly paid and important lawyers have thought about it for ages before deciding there is a case to answer - no smoke without fire, etc. The same applies to parties whom the CPS decides not to prosecute - because "he did it, but they couldn't find the evidence to make a charge stick" is a natural conclusion to draw, and sometimes - but not always - correct. The benefit of the CPS giving a running commentary on its deliberations is as far as I can see nil, except to make the DPP look important. This really needs stamping on very hard indeed. The FBI probably gave the election to Trump by doing the same thing over Hillary's emails, and this is an aspect of US politics we really don't need to see over here.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2017
    david_herdson said:

    As an aside, what scandal would you nominate as the largest British scandal ever?

    In modern times, Profumo, surely.

    In the last few years, MPs' expenses.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Still, it's rather touching to see the naive faith that many LibDems have in this.

    I feel the need to give Mark a history lesson on Lloyd George and peerages.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,326
    Beverley_C said:

    That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.

    The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    edited May 2017
    Largest political scandal ever? I don't think so. Naughty laxity with election expenses but no corruption etc. LibDum wishful thinking.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    She'll have done it for a number of reasons (both for and against). I have little doubt the risk of the investigations would have had some weight, as would the poll leads and the risks of Brexit from going titsup, along with other issues. We cannot know what weight she put on each of these factors.

    One of the things I despise about modern soundbite politics is the attempt to simplify situations down to just one factor, which leads to the stated reason essentially being a lie.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    Sky News on Abbott:" She had the grenade, she pulled the pin, but unfortunately forgot to throw it"!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    George's first day just got more interesting:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/video/2017/may/02/we-want-osborne-out-london-cabbies-protest-outside-evening-standard-uber-video?CMP=twt_gu
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,838
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:
    Good luck to @Tissue_Price for his selection meeting tomorrow.

    Do we know of any other PBers standing in the election - @NickPalmer said he is is out, and @TheScreamingEagles doesnt want the pay cut. @MrsB stood for the yellow team last time IIRC.

    I am standing (again) for the Pirates in Vauxhall.
    Best of luck :)
    Thanks... Small goals - and it's going to be interesting being in the middle of a Hoey v LibDem battle.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,101
    "Never before in our democratic history would so many MPs all be up for prosecution at the same time as part of the same scandal – and one about rigging an election, no less."

    At least it wasn't the Russians.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,686
    calum said:

    At least its not a bacon roll !!

    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/859391123185430530

    There's something One Million Years BC about it (and I don't mean Raquel's fur bikini).

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/859389897777590272
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,260
    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway

    Not even on the take in this case - they're accused of spending money they shouldn't rather than receiving it. The public aren't going to understand that at all.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Why would there be a by-election?
    You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
    Unless there was a jail term involved, that's unlikely. It's usually the agents who are on the line for expense returns errors. There are suggestions that MPs have been investigated about the expense returns but how reliable that is and whether the MPs are themselves in the firing line have to be to some extent unknown.

    Clearly, were the parliament still based on 2015GE results then you could easily see a court ruling that the elections were void in the constituencies concerned, if malpractice were proven. But that will no longer be the case irrespective of the legal process: all MPs will have their mandate from the 2017GE.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway

    Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,101
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Still, it's rather touching to see the naive faith that many LibDems have in this.

    I feel the need to give Mark a history lesson on Lloyd George and peerages.
    That's quite old news ;-), there's a more up to date take on cash for honours:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_for_Honours
    However the point is surely that two wrongs don't make a right.
    If it is proved that the election was 'rigged' then that is surely a major scandal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,501
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    If she is confusing fellow Conservatives about where her true intentions lie, as well as the EU, then her negotiating strategy is working.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,101
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway

    Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
    So, what are spending limits for?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610
    Steve Fisher‏ @StephenDFisher 45m45 minutes ago

    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Why would there be a by-election?
    You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
    Unless there was a jail term involved, that's unlikely. It's usually the agents who are on the line for expense returns errors. There are suggestions that MPs have been investigated about the expense returns but how reliable that is and whether the MPs are themselves in the firing line have to be to some extent unknown.

    Clearly, were the parliament still based on 2015GE results then you could easily see a court ruling that the elections were void in the constituencies concerned, if malpractice were proven. But that will no longer be the case irrespective of the legal process: all MPs will have their mandate from the 2017GE.
    Isn't it Phil Woolas territory and you're barred from being an MP for x years?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."

    Wonder why he's standing for Labour, I'd have thought someone who wanted to "eradicate Islam from our continent”. would stand a better chance getting selected with the EDL?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway

    Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
    He might have only voted Conservative to stop Ed+SNP though
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    williamglenn said:

    Beverley_C said:

    That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.

    The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
    Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,086
    O/T

    Tories = sleazy corrupt cheats!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    From 20th march

    @JamesHarryBull: Conspiracy Theory Alert - George Osborne knows a snap election is on the way & will stand down as MP to take up post at the Evening Standard
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,523
    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."

    Wonder why he's standing for Labour, I'd have thought someone who wanted to "eradicate Islam from our continent”. would stand a better chance getting selected with the EDL?
    Likely defector to Ukip after their stuff last week.
  • walterwwalterw Posts: 71
    'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'

    Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.

    As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Still, it's rather touching to see the naive faith that many LibDems have in this.

    I feel the need to give Mark a history lesson on Lloyd George and peerages.
    That's quite old news ;-), there's a more up to date take on cash for honours:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_for_Honours
    However the point is surely that two wrongs don't make a right.
    If it is proved that the election was 'rigged' then that is surely a major scandal.
    Again, rigged is too strong a word. It suggests the actions definitely swayed things and we dont know that - didn't some lose despite overspending - so it would be a scandal which deserves punishment, and I can see it reinforcing what a lot of people think re evil tories, but the actual details are quite technical and complex, which should blunt matters.

    That the other parties have been fined if not apparently in line for prosecution limits how much they can get on their high horses as well.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    logical_song said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.

    So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.

    And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway

    Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
    So, what are spending limits for?
    Search me, I didn't make the rules. But the point is, implicit in the indigation that 'we wuz robbed' is the implication that the result would have been different if activists hadn't been bussed in. Well, maybe it would, but at any by-election to get a different result you'd be asking voters to admit that they were influenced by the battle-bus or whatever is alleged to be outside the rules. Voters just don't behave like that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,930
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    That wouldn't surprise me tbh. It's a shame but we are where we are now. I think it will be 2-3 years of tough action followed by a pretty large economic boom. The government also needs to desperately invest in education if it is to be hard Brexit, we also need to see wages at the bottom rise above £10/h so that young people will do the jobs that migrants currently do. Reform of the benefits system is also going to be extremely important so that long term unemployed people are forced back into the labour market.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    rottenborough said:

    Steve Fisher‏ @StephenDFisher 45m45 minutes ago

    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30

    A far cry from others.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,101
    walterw said:

    'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'

    Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.

    As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service

    Rigging a General Election, if that's what it was, is way more important than some MPs fiddling expenses.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    murali_s said:

    O/T
    Tories = sleazy corrupt cheats!

    Tories = sleazy corrupt winning cheats!
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    This just tells me that Brussels viewed us a subjects rather than partners in this EU project of theirs.

    "Shut up, pay up and get with the programme."

    All Brussels had to do was promise to pass some fundamental democratic reforms that most of us agree should be happening and the UK would have voted remain. But they declared their will be no reforms and proceeded to give Cameron crumbs. Their arrogance made the UK leave the EU, now their arrogance is making them cut of their nose to spite their face.

    Good riddance, who needs "friends" like these.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,326
    Disraeli said:

    williamglenn said:

    Beverley_C said:

    That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.

    The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
    Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
    A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest ElectoralCalculus polling average gives the Tories a 20 point lead.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • isamisam Posts: 42,912
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."

    Wonder why he's standing for Labour, I'd have thought someone who wanted to "eradicate Islam from our continent”. would stand a better chance getting selected with the EDL?
    Likely defector to Ukip after their stuff last week.
    Or the Conservatives

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/twitter-account-tory-councillor-used-12961694
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,398
    murali_s said:

    O/T

    Tories = sleazy corrupt cheats!

    rubbish anagram
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,930
    williamglenn said:

    Disraeli said:

    williamglenn said:

    Beverley_C said:

    That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.

    The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
    Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
    A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
    Lol, and you are doing this by posting on a pretty inconsequential blog below the line? Delusional.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Search me, I didn't make the rules. But the point is, implicit in the indigation that 'we wuz robbed' is the implication that the result would have been different if activists hadn't been bussed in. Well, maybe it would, but at any by-election to get a different result you'd be asking voters to admit that they were influenced by the battle-bus or whatever is alleged to be outside the rules. Voters just don't behave like that.

    For a good example of how we see stuff differently to the average voter, check the dashed SNP hopes in Orkney & Shetland in 2015 and the subsequent non punishment in Holyrood. The "Sturgeon wants Cameron" letter in place gave anyone long SNP absolute kittens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    logical_song said:

    walterw said:

    'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'

    Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.

    As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service

    Rigging a General Election, if that's what it was, is way more important than some MPs fiddling expenses.
    Which is surely why it isn't rigging a general election even if all are guilty. It's not following spending limits or rule correctly, in a handful of seats to boot.

    If they broke the rules I want them punished, but this talk of rigged elections and biggest scandals ever is nonsense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610
    AndyJS said:

    Latest ElectoralCalculus polling average gives the Tories a 20 point lead.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    CON 400+ seats. That is what I need to see, betting wise.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rottenborough said:

    Steve Fisher‏ @StephenDFisher 45m45 minutes ago

    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30

    That would be Labour losing more than half the seats they won four years ago, 538.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    rottenborough said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest ElectoralCalculus polling average gives the Tories a 20 point lead.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    CON 400+ seats. That is what I need to see, betting wise.
    So selfish, what about the country needs to see? Plus I need to see sub 400, betting wise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,602
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."

    And somebody on here only last week was assuring us that because of strict vetting procedures no racist / antisemitic / islamophobic nutters would get through to be a PPC for Labour.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.

    Recent leaks tend to confirm that.

    That wouldn't surprise me tbh. It's a shame but we are where we are now. I think it will be 2-3 years of tough action followed by a pretty large economic boom. The government also needs to desperately invest in education if it is to be hard Brexit, we also need to see wages at the bottom rise above £10/h so that young people will do the jobs that migrants currently do. Reform of the benefits system is also going to be extremely important so that long term unemployed people are forced back into the labour market.
    On current evidence May will be absolutely shit at all of that.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    david_herdson said:

    isam said:

    I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?

    Why would there be a by-election?
    You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
    Unless there was a jail term involved, that's unlikely. It's usually the agents who are on the line for expense returns errors. There are suggestions that MPs have been investigated about the expense returns but how reliable that is and whether the MPs are themselves in the firing line have to be to some extent unknown.

    Clearly, were the parliament still based on 2015GE results then you could easily see a court ruling that the elections were void in the constituencies concerned, if malpractice were proven. But that will no longer be the case irrespective of the legal process: all MPs will have their mandate from the 2017GE.
    I may be wrong and have no time at the moment to look up the relevant Act but I believe that if an MP is found guilty of this particular offense disqualification from the office of MP is mandatory .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    AndyJS said:

    rottenborough said:

    Steve Fisher‏ @StephenDFisher 45m45 minutes ago

    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30

    That would be Labour losing more than half the seats they won four years ago, 538.
    For such local races surely not going to happen?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,610
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest ElectoralCalculus polling average gives the Tories a 20 point lead.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    CON 400+ seats. That is what I need to see, betting wise.
    So selfish, what about the country needs to see? Plus I need to see sub 400, betting wise.
    The country needs to see an Opposition and that means Corbyn cultists jolted out of their dreamings by the mother of all shellackings. I can see no other way.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025