'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'
Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.
As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service
Rigging a General Election, if that's what it was, is way more important than some MPs fiddling expenses.
Which is surely why it isn't rigging a general election even if all are guilty. It's not following spending limits or rule correctly, in a handful of seats to boot.
If they broke the rules I want them punished, but this talk of rigged elections and biggest scandals ever is nonsense.
If one can spend whatever one wants in the General Election then one can have a huge advantage. This is why there are spending limits and if they are breached it is a scandal. If they are breached in dozens of seats (more than were needed for the resulting majority) then it is a major scandal.
CON 400+ seats. That is what I need to see, betting wise.
So selfish, what about the country needs to see? Plus I need to see sub 400, betting wise.
The country needs to see an Opposition and that means Corbyn cultists jolted out of their dreamings by the mother of all shellackings. I can see no other way.
I don't like massive majorities, but you have a point.
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
You are in denial. The EU are glad to get rid of us, as I keep telling you. All we did in the EU was moan, opt-out of everything that we didn't like, and generally obstruct and try to put the brake on "Ever Closer Union".
It's over, mate. Get on with your life and come to terms with it. You are just heading for a breakdown if you carry on like this.
(BTW who is the gentleman in your avatar? He looks rather sad and I'm sure has an interesting back story)
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
Lol, and you are doing this by posting on a pretty inconsequential blog below the line? Delusional.
Delusional to a certain extent, but there's some logic. With one paid astroturfer per blog to make the same talking points over and over again you can spread a minority message far and wide across the net with minimal resources.
We had one paid Hillary astroturfer during the US Presidentials who disappeared the day after when the money stopped.
Maybe we've only got another 1y 10 months of williamglenn until A50 is over?
Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.
So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.
And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway
Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
So, what are spending limits for?
Search me, I didn't make the rules. But the point is, implicit in the indigation that 'we wuz robbed' is the implication that the result would have been different if activists hadn't been bussed in. Well, maybe it would, but at any by-election to get a different result you'd be asking voters to admit that they were influenced by the battle-bus or whatever is alleged to be outside the rules. Voters just don't behave like that.
This makes a credible case that the disputed expenditure was crucial to the election victory. As with Brexit, when the margin of victory is so narrow there are hundreds of factors each of which can legitimately be regarded as what got the winning party over the line.
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
That wouldn't surprise me tbh. It's a shame but we are where we are now. I think it will be 2-3 years of tough action followed by a pretty large economic boom. The government also needs to desperately invest in education if it is to be hard Brexit, we also need to see wages at the bottom rise above £10/h so that young people will do the jobs that migrants currently do. Reform of the benefits system is also going to be extremely important so that long term unemployed people are forced back into the labour market.
On current evidence May will be absolutely shit at all of that.
If you are genuinely interested in investing in education, and want young people to fill the jobs that many migrants currently fill, then grammar schools are definitely not the answer.
'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'
Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.
As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service
Rigging a General Election, if that's what it was, is way more important than some MPs fiddling expenses.
Which is surely why it isn't rigging a general election even if all are guilty. It's not following spending limits or rule correctly, in a handful of seats to boot.
If they broke the rules I want them punished, but this talk of rigged elections and biggest scandals ever is nonsense.
If one can spend whatever one wants in the General Election then one can have a huge advantage. This is why there are spending limits and if they are breached it is a scandal. If they are breached in dozens of seats (more than were needed for the resulting majority) then it is a major scandal.
And I said it was a scandal, but the extent of overspending is relevant - it might my be much, it might be just accounted incorrectly local vs national - when determining how much of one, even if it involves dozens. Mark and Co are overplaying the outrage To the Point The dry technical Charge May disappoinT.
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
Lol, and you are doing this by posting on a pretty inconsequential blog below the line? Delusional.
Delusional to a certain extent, but there's some logic. With one paid astroturfer per blog to make the same talking points over and over again you can spread a minority message far and wide across the net with minimal resources.
We had one paid Hillary astroturfer during the US Presidentials who disappeared the day after when the money stopped.
Maybe we've only got another 1y 10 months of williamglenn until A50 is over?
Maybe you're being paid? Of course I don't really mean it, but why cast doubt on other people's motives rather than addressing the points they make?
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
That wouldn't surprise me tbh. It's a shame but we are where we are now. I think it will be 2-3 years of tough action followed by a pretty large economic boom. The government also needs to desperately invest in education if it is to be hard Brexit, we also need to see wages at the bottom rise above £10/h so that young people will do the jobs that migrants currently do. Reform of the benefits system is also going to be extremely important so that long term unemployed people are forced back into the labour market.
and so what ? politics is all about timing... ask Gordon Brown...
What do you seriously expect in the era of Islamic terror and suicide lorries? Our neighbour France is in a two year long State of Emergency, for the same reason.
Frankly, I'm slightly surprised they let TMay mingle with voters the way she did, in Mevagissey, in the BBC news report.
It would be nice if there was no terror threat, and prime ministers could walk the streets alone, but there is, so they can't.
John Major and Margaret Thatcher mingled with voters during the IRA campaign, both of them after the IRA had tried to kill them.
I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?
Why would there be a by-election?
You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
Unless there was a jail term involved, that's unlikely. It's usually the agents who are on the line for expense returns errors. There are suggestions that MPs have been investigated about the expense returns but how reliable that is and whether the MPs are themselves in the firing line have to be to some extent unknown.
Clearly, were the parliament still based on 2015GE results then you could easily see a court ruling that the elections were void in the constituencies concerned, if malpractice were proven. But that will no longer be the case irrespective of the legal process: all MPs will have their mandate from the 2017GE.
Isn't it Phil Woolas territory and you're barred from being an MP for x years?
In Woolas' case, he was held jointly responsible for the leaflets that broke the law. By contrast, election expense returns would normally be a matter for the agent alone unless there's evidence that the candidate was directly involved - though in that case, yes, an MP could be barred for a breach.
@MrHarryCole: Swift action from Labour HQ: "Trevor Merralls has been removed as Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup."
Wonder why he's standing for Labour, I'd have thought someone who wanted to "eradicate Islam from our continent”. would stand a better chance getting selected with the EDL?
Many years ago I was working at an event that the Queen was going to attend. I was stuck in a basement, but I could see out of a small window
The protection officers arrived ahead of the event, including an attractive young woman, and my colleague went out to meet them and discuss the arrangements.
Some time later when they had moved out of my view, I called him on the walkie to ask if he had found out anything about her, not realising of course she was standing right next to him at the time...
Some rather ludicrous hyperbole in the article tbh. I think it is unlikely vast swathes of prosecutions will be announced, more likely the CPS will conclude there wax no criminal intent but make some pronouncement or dig in the ribs at the need for clarity on reporting rules and until this is done criminal prosecution falls outwith the public interest. In other words the public interest is in very clearly defined rules on expense reporting not in technical criminal charges that will be very hard to prove intent. And sub judice will ensure if there are arrests that the story is dead for the duration of the campaign.
'Which is why there’s a serious chance that the largest British political scandal ever will land all over the media just before polling day.'
Right,so bigger than the expenses scandal what absolute nonsense.
As someone commented below keep Pack away from jury service
Rigging a General Election, if that's what it was, is way more important than some MPs fiddling expenses.
Which is surely why it isn't rigging a general election even if all are guilty. It's not following spending limits or rule correctly, in a handful of seats to boot.
If they broke the rules I want them punished, but this talk of rigged elections and biggest scandals ever is nonsense.
In some cases there has been no incorrect spending or overspending, just attributing local expenditure of the bus national campaign. We are talking about only hundreds of pounds in all but a handful of cases.
What do you seriously expect in the era of Islamic terror and suicide lorries? Our neighbour France is in a two year long State of Emergency, for the same reason.
Frankly, I'm slightly surprised they let TMay mingle with voters the way she did, in Mevagissey, in the BBC news report.
It would be nice if there was no terror threat, and prime ministers could walk the streets alone, but there is, so they can't.
To be fair, it isn't just the era of Islamic terrorism. Thatcher had to have masses because Jezza's mates in the IRA were blowing up Tory MPs and trying to knock her off.
I remember seeing Thatcher go for a walk on a golf course once at the height of the IRA bombing campaign and there were more security personnel than attendees at a Lib Dem conference.
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
Your source is absolutely correct. Particularly negotiating over the "divorce bill". As we know now, we can huff and puff, but if we cannot come to a compromise on this one, we will be crashing out into the WTO.
No matter who says what, Britain wants to have a trade deal with the EU. It does not make sense to have a trade deal with Australia and not with your neighbours and a market 20 times larger than Australia and not 12,000 miles away.
The majority is needed to make the big compromises. Otherwise, she would have been hostage to the "bastards" just like Major was.
Sky News on Abbott:" She had the grenade, she pulled the pin, but unfortunately forgot to throw it"!
LOL
Just read that on the BBC website. Its just shows Labour are a joke.
Don't worry ! No one expects her to become the Home Secretary. In fact, this is now Labour's advantage. Since no one expects them to win, very little scrutiny will take place.
2. that she should have protection but it should be invisible
a. because it is in a completely different location from the PM or
b. because it should have those cloaks like in Harry Potter?
Look at the video that's taken from, and you will see May genuinely talking to genuine members of the public https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung. There's going to be video like that every day for the next six weeks. Increasingly awkward for you with every day that passes.
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
Your source is absolutely correct. Particularly negotiating over the "divorce bill". As we know now, we can huff and puff, but if we cannot come to a compromise on this one, we will be crashing out into the WTO.
No matter who says what, Britain wants to have a trade deal with the EU. It does not make sense to have a trade deal with Australia and not with your neighbours and a market 20 times larger than Australia and not 12,000 miles away.
The majority is needed to make the big compromises. Otherwise, she would have been hostage to the "bastards" just like Major was.
How do you personally know that the source is correct?.....and if you don't know for certain..... why are you claiming it as true?
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
That wouldn't surprise me tbh. It's a shame but we are where we are now. I think it will be 2-3 years of tough action followed by a pretty large economic boom. The government also needs to desperately invest in education if it is to be hard Brexit, we also need to see wages at the bottom rise above £10/h so that young people will do the jobs that migrants currently do. Reform of the benefits system is also going to be extremely important so that long term unemployed people are forced back into the labour market.
The hardest of all Brexits imperils tens of thousands of jobs in manufacturing and all other sectors that have European supply chains and/or high sales in Europe. It also means a much lower tax take from both businesses and individuals. So, we are probably looking at higher unemployment, lower pay, higher tax rates and less public spending. That will probably make it more expensive for the government to borrow, too. It will be interesting to see how the economic boom materialises on the back of that.
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
You are in denial. The EU are glad to get rid of us, as I keep telling you. All we did in the EU was moan, opt-out of everything that we didn't like, and generally obstruct and try to put the brake on "Ever Closer Union".
It's over, mate. Get on with your life and come to terms with it. You are just heading for a breakdown if you carry on like this.
(BTW who is the gentleman in your avatar? He looks rather sad and I'm sure has an interesting back story)
The avatar is Konstantin Pobedonostsev who was an absolutist Russian statesman in the 19th century. Not meant as an endorsement.
I wonder whether Farage sat out the GE because he reckons he's more chance in Thanet South in a By Election?
Why would there be a by-election?
You know the procedure better than me, maybe there wouldn't be. I was thinking if the MP won the seat again in June, but was found guilty for offences relating to 2015 afterwards, he would stand down.
Unless there was a jail term involved, that's unlikely. It's usually the agents who are on the line for expense returns errors. There are suggestions that MPs have been investigated about the expense returns but how reliable that is and whether the MPs are themselves in the firing line have to be to some extent unknown.
Clearly, were the parliament still based on 2015GE results then you could easily see a court ruling that the elections were void in the constituencies concerned, if malpractice were proven. But that will no longer be the case irrespective of the legal process: all MPs will have their mandate from the 2017GE.
I may be wrong and have no time at the moment to look up the relevant Act but I believe that if an MP is found guilty of this particular offense disqualification from the office of MP is mandatory .
OK, that'd surprise me but I'm not going to dispute it. It'd be useful to see the text, as you say.
What do you seriously expect in the era of Islamic terror and suicide lorries? Our neighbour France is in a two year long State of Emergency, for the same reason.
Frankly, I'm slightly surprised they let TMay mingle with voters the way she did, in Mevagissey, in the BBC news report.
It would be nice if there was no terror threat, and prime ministers could walk the streets alone, but there is, so they can't.
Would be interesting to see her in Tower Hamlets, Haringey or Newham
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
You are in denial. The EU are glad to get rid of us, as I keep telling you. All we did in the EU was moan, opt-out of everything that we didn't like, and generally obstruct and try to put the brake on "Ever Closer Union".
It's over, mate. Get on with your life and come to terms with it. You are just heading for a breakdown if you carry on like this.
(BTW who is the gentleman in your avatar? He looks rather sad and I'm sure has an interesting back story)
I agree poor Mr Glenn would be better taking a chill pill and focusing on his gardening, but it's simply not true to say All of Europe is glad we're going, and wants us gone.
Elements within the Commission and Parliament, yes, for sure. Also EU Federalist politicians.
But large large parts of Europe are still desperate for us to change our minds, and forlornly hopeful we might. e.g. All of Ireland. Most of the Nordic countries. Holland. I met smart important French people last week who said exactly this: we want you to change your minds.
We won't. It's too late. But the sentiment is there, in the EU.
I still want us to go for something like EEA, and have my own fond delusion that TMay will take us there. Somehow.
"I still want us to go for something like EEA, and have my own fond delusion that TMay will take us there. Somehow."
Do you know how many loonies there are in the Conservative Party ?
Many years ago I was working at an event that the Queen was going to attend. I was stuck in a basement, but I could see out of a small window
The protection officers arrived ahead of the event, including an attractive young woman, and my colleague went out to meet them and discuss the arrangements.
Some time later when they had moved out of my view, I called him on the walkie to ask if he had found out anything about her, not realising of course she was standing right next to him at the time...
But they were VERY professional.
Many years ago I did a weekend walk along the Icknield Way, which passes the frontage of Chequers. It was early in the morning, and a gate led onto the grounds. There was a tall post by the gate, with a camera on top if it. Curious, I walked around the post to see if the camera could turn all the way around as it followed me.
A while later, before I reached the driveway, two women ran up behind me. One was wearing jogging gear, whilst the other was dressed more smartly. They asked me what I was doing. "Just walking. What are you doing?" I asked. "Just an early morning walk," one of them replied.
They walked with me across the grounds, asking me a series of polite, innocuous questions about who I was. I gave them vague, innocuous replies, and asked them the same questions.
When I went through the gate leaving the grounds, they disappeared back down the road in the direction they'd come.
I reckon May will make a deal, the massive majority will be mostly nodding dogs loyal MPs. Her position in the negotiations isn't all that strong, the UK needs a deal more than the EU does.
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
Your source is absolutely correct. Particularly negotiating over the "divorce bill". As we know now, we can huff and puff, but if we cannot come to a compromise on this one, we will be crashing out into the WTO.
No matter who says what, Britain wants to have a trade deal with the EU. It does not make sense to have a trade deal with Australia and not with your neighbours and a market 20 times larger than Australia and not 12,000 miles away.
The majority is needed to make the big compromises. Otherwise, she would have been hostage to the "bastards" just like Major was.
Er, TSE is saying the opposite, he's saying TMay is taking us out to WTO, Tungsten Brexit, Car Crash Brexit, Chernobyl Brexit.
The Brexit Singularity.
Personally, I don't believe anyone knows anything.
I do not believe that for one second. Even that is what her gut instincts are, big business and, more importantly, the City of London, would be queueing up in Downing St. to tell her the horror stories.
A Conservative Party which ignores big business and the City ? Tell me another story.
Sky News on Abbott:" She had the grenade, she pulled the pin, but unfortunately forgot to throw it"!
LOL
Just read that on the BBC website. Its just shows Labour are a joke.
Don't worry ! No one expects her to become the Home Secretary. In fact, this is now Labour's advantage. Since no one expects them to win, very little scrutiny will take place.
I wouldn't bet on that, and I don't think you would either if you had heard WatO scrutinising her performance today.
Edit to add: and they did scrutinise the policy itself, as well as doing the let's all laugh at Diane bit. They had Sir Peter Fahy on to say that the policy sucked.
"Expenditure for the campaign to re-elect Mark Williams in the county in 2015 was one of several investigated by the commission.The party has been fined the maximum levy of £20,000 for the breaches, while the case against the party’s top campaign official has been referred to the police. "
Note that the LibDems were fined the maximum (which suggests it wasn't a minor technicality) and their agent was reported to the police (& presumably is one of the dirty thirty).
Just in case any Tory wrongdoers are short of excuses, here is what to say (courtesy of Ceredigion LibDems)
" There are issues with a small number of local accounting units ... blah, blah, blah, ....steps being taken to ensure these mistakes were not repeated ...blah,blah,blah ... always endeavour to ensure our reports of national campaign expenses completed in full, in good time and according to all applicable rules ...blah, blah, blah"
Like Mark Williams, you shouldn't bother saying sorry.
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Except it would not be "back to business". They would be utterly mad not to take the opportunity to "lock us in" and demand Schengen and the Euro in the next five years as a pre-condition for Brexit reversal. They would never have a better chance to secure the UK into the EU Federal project.
There will be immediate short term damage if the prosecutions are confirmed, however, May is in a position of strength because she wasn't the PM at the time. We all know how ruthless the Tories can be, and it wouldn't surprise me if they deselected all of the accused MPs.
It won't make a single jot of difference to the outcome of the election. Theresa May will be PM on June 9th with a commanding majority, no matter the headlines.
I reckon May will make a deal, the massive majority will be mostly nodding dogs loyal MPs. Her position in the negotiations isn't all that strong, the UK needs a deal more than the EU does.
I broadly concur. She is the epitome of safe and steady dullness - probably what the country needs right now and I suspect what it wants as well. If there is no deal I'm certain the fault will lie within the EU but would expect the heads of govt to step in if they get too silly.
There will be immediate short term damage if the prosecutions are confirmed, however, May is in a position of strength because she wasn't the PM at the time. We all know how ruthless the Tories can be, and it wouldn't surprise me if they deselected all of the accused MPs.
It won't make a single jot of difference to the outcome of the election. Theresa May will be PM on June 9th with a commanding majority, no matter the headlines.
Explain to me how they deselect them if they are charged after May 11th?
Last week I was told by someone I trust that Mrs May called a snap election not because of the expenses saga but because we were headed for the hardest of all Brexit and she didn't want to fight a GE one year after we crashed out onto WTO terms.
Recent leaks tend to confirm that.
Your source is absolutely correct. Particularly negotiating over the "divorce bill". As we know now, we can huff and puff, but if we cannot come to a compromise on this one, we will be crashing out into the WTO.
No matter who says what, Britain wants to have a trade deal with the EU. It does not make sense to have a trade deal with Australia and not with your neighbours and a market 20 times larger than Australia and not 12,000 miles away.
The majority is needed to make the big compromises. Otherwise, she would have been hostage to the "bastards" just like Major was.
Er, TSE is saying the opposite, he's saying TMay is taking us out to WTO, Tungsten Brexit, Car Crash Brexit, Chernobyl Brexit.
The Brexit Singularity.
Personally, I don't believe anyone knows anything.
I do not believe that for one second. Even that is what her gut instincts are, big business and, more importantly, the City of London, would be queueing up in Downing St. to tell her the horror stories.
A Conservative Party which ignores big business and the City ? Tell me another story.
Like they did about joining the Euro or leaving the EU?
‘I can’t promise anything to the Dutch people living in the United Kingdom because I have no idea what will come out of the talks, but we have the sense that it will turn out fine.’
Followed by
Rutte cautioned against dragging in other other disputes within the EU, such as the European Parliament’s twin seats in Brussels and Strasbourg. Any attempt to locate the Parliament solely in Brussels, which is Rutte’s personal preference, would require a change to the Lisbon treaty. ‘Before you know it countries will be asking for more treaty changes and then we’ll end up in the kind of interminable dispute we had over the European constitution,’ Rutte said.
---
Taken at face value, the expat/migrant issue is expected to be resolved while the unity of the EU is obviously wafer thin.
Did it get a mention in the Uk press? How about Tsipras pointing out that Ireland isn't the only divided island in the EU and that Northern (Turkish) Cyprus is essentially in an identical situaton?
Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.
So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.
And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway
Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
So, what are spending limits for?
Search me, I didn't make the rules. But the point is, implicit in the indigation that 'we wuz robbed' is the implication that the result would have been different if activists hadn't been bussed in. Well, maybe it would, but at any by-election to get a different result you'd be asking voters to admit that they were influenced by the battle-bus or whatever is alleged to be outside the rules. Voters just don't behave like that.
Richard, normally you do try to pass off as a sensible person. But here you have gone off-piste !
What you are saying is akin to someone, caught driving on the M1 at 150 mph, should not be prosecuted because he did not kill anyone.
They are alleged to have broken the law !!!!!!!!!!!
Many years ago I was working at an event that the Queen was going to attend. I was stuck in a basement, but I could see out of a small window
The protection officers arrived ahead of the event, including an attractive young woman, and my colleague went out to meet them and discuss the arrangements.
Some time later when they had moved out of my view, I called him on the walkie to ask if he had found out anything about her, not realising of course she was standing right next to him at the time...
But they were VERY professional.
Many years ago I did a weekend walk along the Icknield Way, which passes the frontage of Chequers. It was early in the morning, and a gate led onto the grounds. There was a tall post by the gate, with a camera on top if it. Curious, I walked around the post to see if the camera could turn all the way around as it followed me.
A while later, before I reached the driveway, two women ran up behind me. One was wearing jogging gear, whilst the other was dressed more smartly. They asked me what I was doing. "Just walking. What are you doing?" I asked. "Just an early morning walk," one of them replied.
They walked with me across the grounds, asking me a series of polite, innocuous questions about who I was. I gave them vague, innocuous replies, and asked them the same questions.
When I went through the gate leaving the grounds, they disappeared back down the road in the direction they'd come.
That had the makings of a readers letter in an old porno mag!
"... I never got their names, but I often think about the afternoon I spent with those mysterious minxes"
‘I can’t promise anything to the Dutch people living in the United Kingdom because I have no idea what will come out of the talks, but we have the sense that it will turn out fine.’
Followed by
Rutte cautioned against dragging in other other disputes within the EU, such as the European Parliament’s twin seats in Brussels and Strasbourg. Any attempt to locate the Parliament solely in Brussels, which is Rutte’s personal preference, would require a change to the Lisbon treaty. ‘Before you know it countries will be asking for more treaty changes and then we’ll end up in the kind of interminable dispute we had over the European constitution,’ Rutte said.
---
Taken at face value, the expat/migrant issue is expected to be resolved while the unity of the EU is obviously wafer thin.
Did it get a mention in the Uk press? How about Tsipras pointing out that Ireland isn't the only divided island in the EU and that Northern (Turkish) Cyprus is essentially in an identical situaton?
A deal still seems the much more likely outcome to me. The alternative is just too unpalatable, especially from the UK perspective. Would we, for example, really inflict a diamond hard Brexit on ourselves to avoid ensuring that EU citizens currently residing in the UK do not have the same rights as British citizens once we leave?
1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission 2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.
I reckon May will make a deal, the massive majority will be mostly nodding dogs loyal MPs. Her position in the negotiations isn't all that strong, the UK needs a deal more than the EU does.
There will be a compromise deal.
Hard Brexit works on the theory that the EU are prepared to throw the Irish under a bus (as well as many european businesses who do very well in the UK).
This is an Ireland that will have the majority of it's international trade firmly outside the EU (more so than the UK currently does) post Brexit, whilst being a member of the eurozone. If they get this wrong, they create Irexit - especially if the Irish see a way of being part of an Atlantic free trade zone without all the politics. They also potentially lose a member of the single currency.
BBC showing Theresa May openly canvassing and eating chips in public
Body double.
A couple of months ago, R5 (?) did an interview with the interrogator the US sent to speak to Saddam Hussain after his capture. He said the stories of Saddam having all those body doubles was total nonsense.
I see Abbott, predictably, blamed the media fir not focusing on what she wanted them to, due to her own screw up. Transparent and pathetic. The media do love a good mess, but they can only sustain it with help, Diane.
Many years ago I was working at an event that the Queen was going to attend. I was stuck in a basement, but I could see out of a small window
The protection officers arrived ahead of the event, including an attractive young woman, and my colleague went out to meet them and discuss the arrangements.
Some time later when they had moved out of my view, I called him on the walkie to ask if he had found out anything about her, not realising of course she was standing right next to him at the time...
But they were VERY professional.
Many years ago I did a weekend walk along the Icknield Way, which passes the frontage of Chequers. It was early in the morning, and a gate led onto the grounds. There was a tall post by the gate, with a camera on top if it. Curious, I walked around the post to see if the camera could turn all the way around as it followed me.
A while later, before I reached the driveway, two women ran up behind me. One was wearing jogging gear, whilst the other was dressed more smartly. They asked me what I was doing. "Just walking. What are you doing?" I asked. "Just an early morning walk," one of them replied.
They walked with me across the grounds, asking me a series of polite, innocuous questions about who I was. I gave them vague, innocuous replies, and asked them the same questions.
When I went through the gate leaving the grounds, they disappeared back down the road in the direction they'd come.
That had the makings of a readers letter in an old porno mag!
"... I never got their names, but I often think about the afternoon I spent with those mysterious minxes"
As far as I recall, they were both fairly fit (in both sense of the word). However I'm not really at my most attractive when on a walk, and I fear that propositioning them might have ended me in trouble - both with my gf and them. I feared my gf more ...
1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission 2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.
3) As the practice seems prevalent in a number of parties, I expect the prosecutions will include individuals from more than one party to avoid accusations of bias.
That would be an interesting move, but what about Europe? We have diminished our standing there. You know that I am not a Leaver, but I cannot see that we can stay in the EU. We have damaged the UK too much.
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
With friends like you, the EU does not need enemies..
Electorates have a habit of objecting when someone tells them they voted wrong - even if that is the courts. Winchester 1997 the result was nullified by the courts as too close, and in the by-election Mark Oaten increased his majority from 2 to 21,000. And in Saddleworth where Labour increasd its majority from 103 to 3,500.
So lets assume that some MPs get charged by the CPS. Lets further assume they are allowed to remain Conservative candidates in this election. And further further assume they then stand down and trigger by-elections. I would expect the Conservatives to retain the seats anyway, as a new candidate under the glare of public scrutiny wipes the slate clean.
And anyway, a lot of people assume all politicians are on the take anyway
Yes, quite. In particular, which voter is going to accept the premise that he only voted Conservative because some guy came in a bus and shoved a leaflet through his door?
So, what are spending limits for?
Search me, I didn't make the rules. But the point is, implicit in the indigation that 'we wuz robbed' is the implication that the result would have been different if activists hadn't been bussed in. Well, maybe it would, but at any by-election to get a different result you'd be asking voters to admit that they were influenced by the battle-bus or whatever is alleged to be outside the rules. Voters just don't behave like that.
Richard, normally you do try to pass off as a sensible person. But here you have gone off-piste !
What you are saying is akin to someone, caught driving on the M1 at 150 mph, should not be prosecuted because he did not kill anyone.
They are alleged to have broken the law !!!!!!!!!!!
The public interest argument is key here. There may be one or two cases deserving of the full works but, for example, if a few hundred quid was reported wrongly national versus local it's not really in the public interest to prosecute any more than a few quid misreporting in a tax return. It didn't change anything and proving criminal intent would be challenging. Indeed given that we are right up against the time limits one might conclude there is trouble identifying and open and shut criminal case to answer.
‘I can’t promise anything to the Dutch people living in the United Kingdom because I have no idea what will come out of the talks, but we have the sense that it will turn out fine.’
Followed by
Rutte cautioned against dragging in other other disputes within the EU, such as the European Parliament’s twin seats in Brussels and Strasbourg. Any attempt to locate the Parliament solely in Brussels, which is Rutte’s personal preference, would require a change to the Lisbon treaty. ‘Before you know it countries will be asking for more treaty changes and then we’ll end up in the kind of interminable dispute we had over the European constitution,’ Rutte said.
---
Taken at face value, the expat/migrant issue is expected to be resolved while the unity of the EU is obviously wafer thin.
Did it get a mention in the Uk press? How about Tsipras pointing out that Ireland isn't the only divided island in the EU and that Northern (Turkish) Cyprus is essentially in an identical situaton?
I like Rutte, I think he's a very sensible politician. In fact with France (hopefully) having Macron ,and Rutte in the Netherlands that will be two european countries with sensible more or less centrists in charge.
For the LD to lose net seats on Thursday would be a disaster for them. I was following the ?wisdom? of many on PB: that they'd do well in the locals on Thursday, and less well in the GE.
An important note from Stephen Fisher on his own forecast:
As I have said before, the Rallings and Thrasher model should perform better and usually it does, as detailed in previous posts on this website and below. Probably it will be a similar story this year.
For the LD to lose net seats on Thursday would be a disaster for them. I was following the ?wisdom? of many on PB: that they'd do well in the locals on Thursday, and less well in the GE.
If the LD suffer net losses I will be very bearish (sub 10) for the GE
Richard, normally you do try to pass off as a sensible person. But here you have gone off-piste !
What you are saying is akin to someone, caught driving on the M1 at 150 mph, should not be prosecuted because he did not kill anyone.
They are alleged to have broken the law !!!!!!!!!!!
Err, if you read what I actually wrote, you will find that I was saying nothing of the sort.
My point, which isn't a complex one, is that voters don't usually change their voting behaviour because of scandals like this. They tend to ignore them at the next election/by-election. See Chris Huhne, Phil Woolas, for example.
In this particular case, they'd have even less reason to change their voting behaviour, because to do so would be tantamount to admitting that they themselves were hoodwinked by a few leaflets shoved through their doors. How likely is that?
BBC showing Theresa May openly canvassing and eating chips in public
Body double.
A couple of months ago, R5 (?) did an interview with the interrogator the US sent to speak to Saddam Hussain after his capture. He said the stories of Saddam having all those body doubles was total nonsense.
Or at least he thought he was speaking to Saddam Hussein...
For the LD to lose net seats on Thursday would be a disaster for them. I was following the ?wisdom? of many on PB: that they'd do well in the locals on Thursday, and less well in the GE.
I think it is highly unlikely that the lib dem's wil lose seats on Thursday but maybe not so in the GE
1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission 2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.
3) As the practice seems prevalent in a number of parties, I expect the prosecutions will include individuals from more than one party to avoid accusations of bias.
I'm not sure that's right in this case. Not because Conservatives are any more or less dishonest as a breed, but because the Conservative Party has more money so were (in fact) more aggressive in seeking to find ways to set allegedly local spending against the national limit.
It does seem the CCHQ advice - rightly or wrongly - was out of line with other parties on this, and that more local parties were flirting with the limit such that they were looking for work-arounds. The Battle Bus issue in particular was plainly a Conservative Party issue.
So I'd not necessarily expect this to involve non-Tories.
CON 400+ seats. That is what I need to see, betting wise.
So selfish, what about the country needs to see? Plus I need to see sub 400, betting wise.
The country needs to see an Opposition and that means Corbyn cultists jolted out of their dreamings by the mother of all shellackings. I can see no other way.
I don't like massive majorities, but you have a point.
Alas, shellackings seem to shock a party to its senses for about 48 hours. Then they revert to business as usual. Witness Obama 2010.
I saw that but on this rare occasion I think the Fisher forecast is likely to be off the mark for both the Tories and the LDs. I'd love to be proven wrong but I just can't see it. If it is anything close to that then the GE is potentially going to be a record breaker.
BBC showing Theresa May openly canvassing and eating chips in public
Body double.
Real May is locked in a room, with the remote control team.
It may suit your agenda but today she has been out and about in Cornwall filmed and shown on the BBC and also conducted an interview with them.
And when voters view the news tonight she will be shown canvassing while Abbott implodes
I think we're on the same side here.
Sorry - didn't pick up the humour.
Think I need my trip to Vancouver to my son and daughter in law next Wednesday to see the GE from afar, relax, and return for the last 10 days of the campaign
The damage sometimes feels worse when you're in the middle of it than it is in reality. If a reversal were as a result of a clear rejection of the politics of Brexit, I don't see any barrier for us. It would be the perfect outcome for the EU - a humiliating retreat and then back to business.
Says it all really. williamglenn's priority is the EU getting what it wants and sod the UK.
A large chunk of the EU is the UK, and we are better off together. My priority is defeating Brexit because it damages our own interests. Sod the Brexiteers.
You are in denial. The EU are glad to get rid of us, as I keep telling you. All we did in the EU was moan, opt-out of everything that we didn't like, and generally obstruct and try to put the brake on "Ever Closer Union".
It's over, mate. Get on with your life and come to terms with it. You are just heading for a breakdown if you carry on like this.
(BTW who is the gentleman in your avatar? He looks rather sad and I'm sure has an interesting back story)
I agree poor Mr Glenn would be better taking a chill pill and focusing on his gardening, but it's simply not true to say All of Europe is glad we're going, and wants us gone.
Elements within the Commission and Parliament, yes, for sure. Also EU Federalist politicians.
But large large parts of Europe are still desperate for us to change our minds, and forlornly hopeful we might. e.g. All of Ireland. Most of the Nordic countries. Holland. I met smart important French people last week who said exactly this: we want you to change your minds.
We won't. It's too late. But the sentiment is there, in the EU.
I still want us to go for something like EEA, and have my own fond delusion that TMay will take us there. Somehow.
That's a crucial distinction. We talk easily - and often in shorthand - of 'the EU' but there is no monolithic 'EU' view. Yes, the leaders signed off the negotiation terms in two and a half seconds or whatever it was but only because it'd all been negotiated beforehand.
And I think you draw the line in the right place. It's not institutions as such, though there are institutional mindsets; it's between the True Believers in Ever Closer Union on the one hand, and pragmatic politicians on the other. While the former are predominantly creatures of Brussels and the latter to be found in national capitals, in truth the division isn't so neat. All the same, there'll be plenty of politicians keen to put doing a workable deal with the UK ahead of visions of European Unity.
1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission 2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.
3) As the practice seems prevalent in a number of parties, I expect the prosecutions will include individuals from more than one party to avoid accusations of bias.
4) The most likely to be charged are agents. As a former PPC, I had no input on how money was spent and my only role was to check the numbers my agent put down in the declaration. Hard to see how you could create a criminal charge against a candidate in these circumstances.
Comments
This is why there are spending limits and if they are breached it is a scandal. If they are breached in dozens of seats (more than were needed for the resulting majority) then it is a major scandal.
That'd imply very deep losses I think, unless Stephen is confused and giving UK wide figures...
It's over, mate. Get on with your life and come to terms with it. You are just heading for a breakdown if you carry on like this.
(BTW who is the gentleman in your avatar? He looks rather sad and I'm sure has an interesting back story)
We had one paid Hillary astroturfer during the US Presidentials who disappeared the day after when the money stopped.
Maybe we've only got another 1y 10 months of williamglenn until A50 is over?
As with Brexit, when the margin of victory is so narrow there are hundreds of factors each of which can legitimately be regarded as what got the winning party over the line.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses
@holyroodmandy: Just a normal street in this particular town...#GE17 https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/859400482401529856/photo/1
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2014/oct/27/david-cameron-protester-leeds-video
Labour have / had people doing time for their shennigans re expenses
I repeat ALL parties have their own problems arising from expenses at last election.
One party got the maximum fine, who were they again?
Treat all parties the same, if laws broke prosecute the guilty in each party - but lets not pretend this is a tory thing only.
Of course I don't really mean it, but why cast doubt on other people's motives rather than addressing the points they make?
:-)
Many years ago I was working at an event that the Queen was going to attend. I was stuck in a basement, but I could see out of a small window
The protection officers arrived ahead of the event, including an attractive young woman, and my colleague went out to meet them and discuss the arrangements.
Some time later when they had moved out of my view, I called him on the walkie to ask if he had found out anything about her, not realising of course she was standing right next to him at the time...
But they were VERY professional.
And sub judice will ensure if there are arrests that the story is dead for the duration of the campaign.
I remember seeing Thatcher go for a walk on a golf course once at the height of the IRA bombing campaign and there were more security personnel than attendees at a Lib Dem conference.
No matter who says what, Britain wants to have a trade deal with the EU. It does not make sense to have a trade deal with Australia and not with your neighbours and a market 20 times larger than Australia and not 12,000 miles away.
The majority is needed to make the big compromises. Otherwise, she would have been hostage to the "bastards" just like Major was.
1. she should have no protection; or
2. that she should have protection but it should be invisible
a. because it is in a completely different location from the PM or
b. because it should have those cloaks like in Harry Potter?
Look at the video that's taken from, and you will see May genuinely talking to genuine members of the public https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung. There's going to be video like that every day for the next six weeks. Increasingly awkward for you with every day that passes.
How do you personally know that the source is correct?.....and if you don't know for certain..... why are you claiming it as true?
Do you know how many loonies there are in the Conservative Party ?
A while later, before I reached the driveway, two women ran up behind me. One was wearing jogging gear, whilst the other was dressed more smartly. They asked me what I was doing. "Just walking. What are you doing?" I asked. "Just an early morning walk," one of them replied.
They walked with me across the grounds, asking me a series of polite, innocuous questions about who I was. I gave them vague, innocuous replies, and asked them the same questions.
When I went through the gate leaving the grounds, they disappeared back down the road in the direction they'd come.
Her position in the negotiations isn't all that strong, the UK needs a deal more than the EU does.
A Conservative Party which ignores big business and the City ? Tell me another story.
Edit to add: and they did scrutinise the policy itself, as well as doing the let's all laugh at Diane bit. They had Sir Peter Fahy on to say that the policy sucked.
https://tinyurl.com/hjrwa5p
"Expenditure for the campaign to re-elect Mark Williams in the county in 2015 was one of several investigated by the commission.The party has been fined the maximum levy of £20,000 for the breaches, while the case against the party’s top campaign official has been referred to the police. "
Note that the LibDems were fined the maximum (which suggests it wasn't a minor technicality) and their agent was reported to the police (& presumably is one of the dirty thirty).
Just in case any Tory wrongdoers are short of excuses, here is what to say (courtesy of Ceredigion LibDems)
" There are issues with a small number of local accounting units ... blah, blah, blah, ....steps being taken to ensure these mistakes were not repeated ...blah,blah,blah ... always endeavour to ensure our reports of national campaign expenses completed in full, in good time and according to all applicable rules ...blah, blah, blah"
Like Mark Williams, you shouldn't bother saying sorry.
It won't make a single jot of difference to the outcome of the election. Theresa May will be PM on June 9th with a commanding majority, no matter the headlines.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/fbi-agent-went-rogue-travelled-syria-marry-isil-fighter-investigating/
Maybe this time the wolf really is there ...
‘I can’t promise anything to the Dutch people living in the United Kingdom because I have no idea what will come out of the talks, but we have the sense that it will turn out fine.’
Followed by
Rutte cautioned against dragging in other other disputes within the EU, such as the European Parliament’s twin seats in Brussels and Strasbourg. Any attempt to locate the Parliament solely in Brussels, which is Rutte’s personal preference, would require a change to the Lisbon treaty. ‘Before you know it countries will be asking for more treaty changes and then we’ll end up in the kind of interminable dispute we had over the European constitution,’ Rutte said.
---
Taken at face value, the expat/migrant issue is expected to be resolved while the unity of the EU is obviously wafer thin.
Did it get a mention in the Uk press? How about Tsipras pointing out that Ireland isn't the only divided island in the EU and that Northern (Turkish) Cyprus is essentially in an identical situaton?
What you are saying is akin to someone, caught driving on the M1 at 150 mph, should not be prosecuted because he did not kill anyone.
They are alleged to have broken the law !!!!!!!!!!!
"... I never got their names, but I often think about the afternoon I spent with those mysterious minxes"
1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission
2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.
Hard Brexit works on the theory that the EU are prepared to throw the Irish under a bus (as well as many european businesses who do very well in the UK).
This is an Ireland that will have the majority of it's international trade firmly outside the EU (more so than the UK currently does) post Brexit, whilst being a member of the eurozone. If they get this wrong, they create Irexit - especially if the Irish see a way of being part of an Atlantic free trade zone without all the politics. They also potentially lose a member of the single currency.
If this can't be sensibly resolved then it should be referred to an independent arbitration court in a neutral country e.g. Switzerland.
As far as I recall, they were both fairly fit (in both sense of the word). However I'm not really at my most attractive when on a walk, and I fear that propositioning them might have ended me in trouble - both with my gf and them. I feared my gf more ...
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/859410955838656512
And when voters view the news tonight she will be shown canvassing while Abbott implodes
As I have said before, the Rallings and Thrasher model should perform better and usually it does, as detailed in previous posts on this website and below. Probably it will be a similar story this year.
My point, which isn't a complex one, is that voters don't usually change their voting behaviour because of scandals like this. They tend to ignore them at the next election/by-election. See Chris Huhne, Phil Woolas, for example.
In this particular case, they'd have even less reason to change their voting behaviour, because to do so would be tantamount to admitting that they themselves were hoodwinked by a few leaflets shoved through their doors. How likely is that?
https://twitter.com/i/moments/859378469070807040
It does seem the CCHQ advice - rightly or wrongly - was out of line with other parties on this, and that more local parties were flirting with the limit such that they were looking for work-arounds. The Battle Bus issue in particular was plainly a Conservative Party issue.
So I'd not necessarily expect this to involve non-Tories.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-brexit-jean-claude-juncker-eu-brussels-deal-europe-angela-merkel-hostile-a7713416.html
And I think you draw the line in the right place. It's not institutions as such, though there are institutional mindsets; it's between the True Believers in Ever Closer Union on the one hand, and pragmatic politicians on the other. While the former are predominantly creatures of Brussels and the latter to be found in national capitals, in truth the division isn't so neat. All the same, there'll be plenty of politicians keen to put doing a workable deal with the UK ahead of visions of European Unity.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/damilola-taylors-father-urges-more-stop-and-search-to-halt-knife-crime-in-london-a3528216.html