Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this electi

123578

Comments

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (-)
    LAB: 28% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    UKIP: 8% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

    Bank holiday polling!
    So are Labour running the line - "It's safe to vote for us - we haven't got a hope in hell of winning!"?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Why is Abbott all over news but McDonnell campaigning under picture of Stalin is ignored?

    Surely the latter is just as newsworthy.

    For some reason hob nobbing with Stalinists does not provoke much interest, as compared to the nearest comparison. Even the Tories don't seem to be that heavy with it.
    Our willingness to call out Stalin for his terrible crimes is forever hampered by our wartime alliance with him and by the fact that without him WWII might well not have been won.
    That doesn't hamper us at all. Lesser of two monstrous evils, normal people not as aware of the totality of his crimes, we know better now etc etc.

    It is extremely easy to reconcile that modern Stalin supporters should be beyond the pale, even though during a world war we looked the other way.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    Mr. Topping, thought we were only discussing frisky scandals.

    If we're discussing backstabbing wretches, King John must be up there too.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Patrick, the more the EU tightened its grip, the more British support slipped through its fingers.

    Henry Bolingbroke, he was a proper backstabbing wretch.
  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Patrick said:

    The absolute tragedy of Uk / EU politics has been the refusal of our politicians to get the public's buy-in at every stage. We should have had referendums at Maastricht and at Lisbon. Major and Brown should be skinned and dipped in lemon juice.

    In retrospect if Major had not got the Euro opt-out and had to put it to a referendum which would have forced Labour to drop their opposition for opposition's sake, I think we'd have had much healthier politics in the period from 1990-2005 and avoided both the wilderness years for the Tories, and also the bitterness against the EU project.
    the bitterness about the eu project is we were never asked if we wanted to be part of it, the referendum result says we don't
    If you read the debates from the 60s and 70s you will see that the former claim is false. It was discussed very openly, and selective quoting to try to prove that the wool was pulled over people's eyes is thoroughly dishonest.
    Mo it wasnt. Major join politicians pooh poohed the idea we were joining a political union, you wouldnt know because from your postings you are about 15
    Heath's whole argument leading up to the referendum was that the Community was about moving beyond the nation state. This was from a prime-time TV debate the Saturday before the vote:

    What really divides us tonight in this argument is not the question of details of prices or tariffs, however important they may be individually. It is not really the question of jobs - they are vital for the reasons I've been explaining. What really divides us is that those who are opposing this motion are in fact content to remain with the past development and institutions and organisation of the nation state, and those on this side are those who want to move forward into a new organisation which is going to have greater success in meeting the needs of its peoples than the nation state has done in the past. That is what clearly divides us.
    A tv debate that a mere 9 million watched
    Indeed - higher ratings that any debate in the recent referendum campaign. Perhaps the general public was better informed back then?
    9 million equates to about the people who voted no, prove that most of those watching the debate didn't go no fuck off we dont want any part of that
    maybe it was the uninformed that voted yes
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    notme said:

    IanB2 said:

    2 points on topic:

    1) The standard of proof for the CPS is going to be much higher than that used by the Electoral Commission
    2) The risk of political blowback to the CPS is enormous, particularly if there are acquittals. Therefore, I would only expect charges in the most clear cut cases. Certainly not anything like 30.

    3) As the practice seems prevalent in a number of parties, I expect the prosecutions will include individuals from more than one party to avoid accusations of bias.
    AIUI only the individual cases concerning the high spending by Tories were sufficiently serious to refer to the CPS.

    All the debate about the outcome, disqualifications, by-elections etc. is missing the point, and I agree with others that these outcomes are very unlikely anyway.

    All that matters is the potential for one day's negative headlines about the Tories, in the event that the CPS decides to progress some of the cases. This is by no means certain, however, and I take Mark's frequent writing about the matter as an attempt to influence the debate and atmosphere rather than an objective prediction of what is likely to happen.
    This is absolutely and utterly not the case. I only know of one referred to cps and their total expenditure was below the maximum with or without the expenditure assigned to the national campaign.
    Same here.

    And in the great bulk of cases, I believe there just wasn't intent. I guess the police, having no expertise of election law breaches and not knowing what thresholds to use, thought "safety first - send it to the CPS."

    I fully expect the LibDems to scream "FIX!!!!!!" if there are only a handful of prosecutions.
    Wouldn't that be a bit like criticizing the Judiciary in the due exercise of it's role. Surely no LD would do that? Surely not?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (-)
    LAB: 28% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    UKIP: 8% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

    Bank holiday polling!
    So are Labour running the line - "It's safe to vote for us - we haven't got a hope in hell of winning!"?
    Some of its anti-Corbyn candidates certainly are giving this line a good try.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Looks like the Corbynistas are infiltrating SLAB !

    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/859426763545477120
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Pong said:


    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    Do you think what the tories did was acceptable?
    If laws were broken, then clearly not.

    That said, I don't regard bussing activists in as the most egregious breach of the law when, for example, had those same activists made the same journey in their own cars, it would have been perfectly legitimate.

    Having heard (second-hand but from reliable sources) of some of the activities that have been got up to with postal votes - involving intimidation, vote farming and the wholesale collection and delivery of votes - I think the national/local split in the cases Mike's highlighting is small beer in comparison.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Given that the donations are declared, I don't see what the issue is.

    Electoral Commission search results
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (-)
    LAB: 28% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    UKIP: 8% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

    Bank holiday polling!
    That was my thought the Tories would now be much higher. :)
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    An interesting point here, is that most of the seats that are being investigated were won from the LibDems, now whichever way you can look at it, to run a government, Cameron would have had to go into another coalition with them if he hadn't cheated. Considering that the LibDems are pro-European, there is no way they would have allowed a referendum to take place, That begs the question on the legitimacy of all the laws and whatever brought into effect since May 2015.
    As to why May called a GE, the CPS would have given a briefing to May as PM as it would on all matters relating to the running of Parliament and the Government.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Patrick said:

    Mr. Patrick, the irony is that had we had a referendum on Lisbon, it would've not only acted as a pressure valve/line in the sand, it would've prevented our departure as Article 50 wouldn't exist.

    Mr. Glenn, we're not closed off from Canada or the US or South Korea. Why would we be closed off from the EU?

    Erm...if we'd had referendums on Maastricht and Lisbon there:
    1. Would have been no new treaties coz we'd block 'em
    2. Unless the EO offered formally a 2-speed EU
    3. In which case we'd be trading but outside politics
    4. And not talking about Brexit
    5. The dumb fuckers
    If we'd had a referendum on Maastricht it would have been won by Yes, and given that Thatcher would have likely been actively campaigning for No, would have provided the cathartic public defeat that the party denied her and drained the poison that infected the Eurosceptic right ever since.
    Based on a hunch, or was there actually polling on the issue?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,325
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Why is Abbott all over news but McDonnell campaigning under picture of Stalin is ignored?

    Surely the latter is just as newsworthy.

    For some reason hob nobbing with Stalinists does not provoke much interest, as compared to the nearest comparison. Even the Tories don't seem to be that heavy with it.
    Our willingness to call out Stalin for his terrible crimes is forever hampered by our wartime alliance with him and by the fact that without him WWII might well not have been won.
    That doesn't hamper us at all. Lesser of two monstrous evils, normal people not as aware of the totality of his crimes, we know better now etc etc.

    It is extremely easy to reconcile that modern Stalin supporters should be beyond the pale, even though during a world war we looked the other way.
    I agree absolutely; I have read widely about that era and the facts are truly terrible. Nevertheless the combination of relative ignorance and past ambivalence provides the answer to the original question, imho.

    I make no comparison other than the statistical, but it is remarkable that the US now has a greater proportion of its own population incarcerated than did the Soviet Union at the height of the gulags.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    OchEye said:

    An interesting point here, is that most of the seats that are being investigated were won from the LibDems, now whichever way you can look at it, to run a government, Cameron would have had to go into another coalition with them if he hadn't cheated. Considering that the LibDems are pro-European, there is no way they would have allowed a referendum to take place, That begs the question on the legitimacy of all the laws and whatever brought into effect since May 2015.
    As to why May called a GE, the CPS would have given a briefing to May as PM as it would on all matters relating to the running of Parliament and the Government.

    The CPS would surely only inform the PM immediately prior to the announcement. Given there has yet to be an announcement I think we can discount that scenario.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jonwalker121: Theresa May says she is a 'bloody difficult woman' - and the EU is finding that out http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/theresa-says-eu-finding-out-12976583
  • Options
    Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Possibly libellous - using the word 'laundered'.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My current prediction for the LibDems:

    HOLDS
    Ceredigion
    Sheffield Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

    LOSSES
    Southport (to Cons)
    Carshalton (to Cons)
    North Norfolk (to Cons)
    Richmond Park (to Cons)
    Leeds North West (to Lab - bit of a wildcard admittedly)

    GAINS
    Twickenham (from Cons)
    Kingston & Surbiton (from Cons)
    Oxford West & Abingdon (from Cons)
    East Dunbartonshire (from SNP)
    Edinburgh West (from SNP)

    Leaving them unchanged on 9 seats overall.

    I can't see Leeds NW going Lab. It's a Remain facing constituency, and Greg had a pretty good lead over Labour.

    I can't see Kingston & Surbiton going Yellow either.

    And if you're going to use local defences to say that the LDs won't gain Cambridge, then you need to point to the LDs in Southport last year where they were up 7% on their 2012 vote share while the Conservatives fell back.
    The difference is that, while it's fairly common for the Lib Dems to underperform local election results in GEs, it's far less common for them to overperform - especially by a margin of 20%.

    I've also got a feeling May is a better fit for Merseyside than Cameron & Osborne were -- she's less obviously Southern(!!) or supercilious, and her classy handling of the Hillsborough inquiries earned her some goodwill round these parts even among people who usually hate the Tories.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Charles said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Or the wholesale and open sale of honours.

    Or that one with the Russian spy, the aristocrat and the call girl.

    Or Expenses.

    Or taking the country into war on a lie.

    Or lying about how the country was taken into war, after the event.

    Or ruling without parliament / taking arms against the king.

    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    As an aside, what scandal would you nominate as the largest British scandal ever?
    The one involving the King and the Frenchwoman and the... you know. Successfully covered up.
    I wouldn't call the Wars of the Roses a particularly successful cover up.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    OchEye said:

    An interesting point here, is that most of the seats that are being investigated were won from the LibDems, now whichever way you can look at it, to run a government, Cameron would have had to go into another coalition with them if he hadn't cheated. Considering that the LibDems are pro-European, there is no way they would have allowed a referendum to take place, That begs the question on the legitimacy of all the laws and whatever brought into effect since May 2015.
    As to why May called a GE, the CPS would have given a briefing to May as PM as it would on all matters relating to the running of Parliament and the Government.

    You are like others presuming the seats would not have been won without these alleged breaches, and that for starters cannot be proven and for which an argument can be made given the scale of the tory majorities and, in some cases, marginal nature of the breaches is unlikely to be the case.

    If the elections need rerunning due to breaches, fine, but since this isnt ballot stuffing, it's also possible it was needless stupidity and they would have won anyway.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    theakes said:

    Yokel: the only caveat to your esteemed & wise piece is that the overall percentage is not what will determine their performance, it is whether they gain any seats and if so how many.
    Up to now they have not got any act together, they need to up their game, get more publicity etc. What we do not know is what they are doing in their target seats, Thursday may tell us a bit more. But yes their poll% should be higher, but up to now that has been their fault not the voters.

    Oh I get the concept of stacking votes up where it matters get seats, I've been barking on here that there is a point where the massive Conservative figures stop stacking up votes in the right places as an example. This, however, is the most pro Europe party. If we are to believe it from the commentariat, there is rage, anger and general dissatisfaction with the Brexit course.

    It isn't in their figures, which perhaps brings us to the leader issue. There is certainly something in the idea that come General Election time people think who is the best boss as much as the party they run.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Possibly libellous - using the word 'laundered'.
    Isn't it protected, or is that only stuff that is said in the chamber itself?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354



    I'd agree with all of that. The Alliance / SDP could have been a success but for an unfortunate sequence of events.

    (snip)

    There is only space under FPTP (and, generally, other electoral systems), for two main parties or coalitions. For the SDP to have thrived, they would have had to have pushed Labour to the fringes and reduced them to a third-party status. And yet that's very nearly the course Labour chose for itself anyway.

    I'm one of the few people apart from one T. Blair who is still active and who was a candidate in that election (in Chelsea, God help me). I remember the desperate days when we thought we were coming third. We pulled back in the final week when bedrock loyalty reasserted itself - summed up by one voter who said to me, "I suppose so - you don't stop supporting your football team when it's near relegation, do you?" At one point we thought we'd go under 20%: we ended up with 28% to the Alliance 26%.

    It actually feels much better now. First, the main problem is not that Labour's vote is dropping through the floor but that the Tories are getting Kippers by the lorryload, which is unfortunate but not something we can obviously do much about. Second, the LibDems made what seemed to be a smart decision in demanding a second referendum but where they'd have been better off with Labour's more muffled line, because nakedly opposing a decision that voters have just made is a bad look - the sensible Remain position is to play it long and wait for negotiations to get deadlocked. Third, the LibDems were perceived as wasting a whole week of the campaign trying to decide if homosexuality was a sin, an issue possibly of interest to the wilder fringes of UKIP but nobody else. And fourth, the SDP precedent is scaring centrists from the whole idea.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    edited May 2017
    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    RobD said:

    Possibly libellous - using the word 'laundered'.
    Isn't it protected, or is that only stuff that is said in the chamber itself?
    Subject to qualified privilege I think.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    Possibly libellous - using the word 'laundered'.
    I have to presume the dodgy doctor has no wealth, because the amount of false and misleading things he has posted I am surprised he hasn't been sued (rather than the many many retractions and apologies he has had to make). One day somebody with a lot of money is going to take a stand on principle.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Why is Abbott all over news but McDonnell campaigning under picture of Stalin is ignored?

    Surely the latter is just as newsworthy.

    For some reason hob nobbing with Stalinists does not provoke much interest, as compared to the nearest comparison. Even the Tories don't seem to be that heavy with it.
    Our willingness to call out Stalin for his terrible crimes is forever hampered by our wartime alliance with him and by the fact that without him WWII might well not have been won.
    Some of Stalin's actions before the war and in its early stages nearly lead to the collapse of the Soviet Union and a German victory.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    RobD said:

    Patrick said:

    Mr. Patrick, the irony is that had we had a referendum on Lisbon, it would've not only acted as a pressure valve/line in the sand, it would've prevented our departure as Article 50 wouldn't exist.

    Mr. Glenn, we're not closed off from Canada or the US or South Korea. Why would we be closed off from the EU?

    Erm...if we'd had referendums on Maastricht and Lisbon there:
    1. Would have been no new treaties coz we'd block 'em
    2. Unless the EO offered formally a 2-speed EU
    3. In which case we'd be trading but outside politics
    4. And not talking about Brexit
    5. The dumb fuckers
    If we'd had a referendum on Maastricht it would have been won by Yes, and given that Thatcher would have likely been actively campaigning for No, would have provided the cathartic public defeat that the party denied her and drained the poison that infected the Eurosceptic right ever since.
    Based on a hunch, or was there actually polling on the issue?
    Based on a hunch. Polling showed a majority against, but also that people felt uninformed and I think a cross-party campaign combined with a chance to vote against Thatcher would have seen Yes across the line.

    http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb38/eb38_en.pdf

    Interestingly the Eurobarometer used to poll support for 'European unification'.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,902
    podawas

    Played in full on PM.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    Possibly libellous - using the word 'laundered'.
    Isn't it protected, or is that only stuff that is said in the chamber itself?
    Subject to qualified privilege I think.
    OGH can rest easy.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2017
    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    murali_s said:

    Jsut heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country is crying out laughing, I just cry. Sad, sad times...

    It's possibly on a par with the Natalie Bennett interview. However, the G. Party replaced Natalie Bennett and has a leader and deputy leader who are better communicators than Corbyn, Abbott or arguably McD.

    It's sad that a minor party now seems to run its affairs better than the party of Clem Attlee, Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins et al.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2017
    Wow. Finally managed to listen to all of the initial Abbott interview. Wow. Her claim she just misspoke is clearly an absolute stinking lie, given her multiple attempts, pauses to think before answering, confirming figures after a minute's opportunity to realise the error. And she's always so offended and condescending whenever someone points out she's made such mistakes.

    And Labour MPs want her to be Home Secretary.
  • Options
    EssexmanEssexman Posts: 19
    murali_s said:

    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.

    Are you voting differently this time?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,971

    murali_s said:

    Jsut heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country is crying out laughing, I just cry. Sad, sad times...

    It's possibly on a par with the Natalie Bennett interview. However, the G. Party replaced Natalie Bennett and has a leader and deputy leader who are better communicators than Corbyn, Abbott or arguably McD.

    It's sad that a minor party now seems to run its affairs better than the party of Clem Attlee, Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins et al.
    Abbott & Cost-ello ello ello
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    edited May 2017
    Tories 400+ seats is good value folks. Fill your boots.

    Possible fly in the ointment is the Tory election expenses. Even then it comes down to sleazy cheating Tories versus the hopeless dimwits that is the Labour party. Very disappointed that the LDs are not making any headway.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    isam said:

    murali_s said:

    Jsut heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country is crying out laughing, I just cry. Sad, sad times...

    It's possibly on a par with the Natalie Bennett interview. However, the G. Party replaced Natalie Bennett and has a leader and deputy leader who are better communicators than Corbyn, Abbott or arguably McD.

    It's sad that a minor party now seems to run its affairs better than the party of Clem Attlee, Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins et al.
    Abbott & Cost-ello ello ello
    At least Bennett was ill on the day of the interview, and should have just pulled out and taken the lemsips.

    What's Abbott's excuse?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    Remainers want her to lie down in the gutter so the Eurocrats can walk all over her.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    Essexman said:

    murali_s said:

    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.

    Are you voting differently this time?
    At this stage LDs. I live in Wimbledon so my vote is pretty pointless as someone who is anti-Tory.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
    And yet it is one which I imagine she does not mind at all - being bloody difficult can be made to be a virtue in the right circumstances, and it fits her persona and image.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    murali_s said:

    Tories 400+ seats is good value folks. Fill your boots.

    Possible fly in the ointment is the Tory election expenses. Even then it comes down to sleazy cheating Tories versus the hopeless dimwits that is the Labour party. Very disappointed that the LDs are not making any headway.

    I agree. I have already taken a punt on this level.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,971

    isam said:

    murali_s said:

    Jsut heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country is crying out laughing, I just cry. Sad, sad times...

    It's possibly on a par with the Natalie Bennett interview. However, the G. Party replaced Natalie Bennett and has a leader and deputy leader who are better communicators than Corbyn, Abbott or arguably McD.

    It's sad that a minor party now seems to run its affairs better than the party of Clem Attlee, Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins et al.
    Abbott & Cost-ello ello ello
    At least Bennett was ill on the day of the interview, and should have just pulled out and taken the lemsips.

    What's Abbott's excuse?
    She's got where she is by playing the race card and preaching to the converted. Over promoted to a job she isn't qualified to do by a bloke she used to shag, she has crumbled
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    murali_s said:

    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.

    Hopefully the healing may begin soon. The worry has to be they don't do that terribly badly - although still badly - and the healing is delayed.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,714
    edited May 2017
    Danny565 said:


    I've also got a feeling May is a better fit for Merseyside than Cameron & Osborne were -- she's less obviously Southern(!!) or supercilious, and her classy handling of the Hillsborough inquiries earned her some goodwill round these parts even among people who usually hate the Tories.

    I agree regarding Merseyside, but some of the majorities the Conservatives have to overcome are astronomical. Yes, Wirral West is lost but the rest of the seats will (probably) stay Red (Southport excepted which will probably stay LD or else go CON, and I have some doubts over Wirral South).

    Too many voters round here are Donkey with Red Rosette voters and 'Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!', 'We hate the tories! They eat babies.'

    In my seat of Bootle, Labour's majority of 28,000 is bigger than some seats winning vote share. And Bootle *isn't* even the safest seat anymore. Knowsley has a safer majority and vote share, and Liverpool West Derby has a higher vote share.

    If ANY seat in Merseyside except Wirral West goes Blue from Red then we really are looking at the destruction of Labour. And if it's more than just Wirral West and Wirral South, for instance if Wallasey or Sefton Central are in play, then it's really game over for the Labour party.
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    RobD said:

    Patrick said:

    Mr. Patrick, the irony is that had we had a referendum on Lisbon, it would've not only acted as a pressure valve/line in the sand, it would've prevented our departure as Article 50 wouldn't exist.

    Mr. Glenn, we're not closed off from Canada or the US or South Korea. Why would we be closed off from the EU?

    Erm...if we'd had referendums on Maastricht and Lisbon there:
    1. Would have been no new treaties coz we'd block 'em
    2. Unless the EO offered formally a 2-speed EU
    3. In which case we'd be trading but outside politics
    4. And not talking about Brexit
    5. The dumb fuckers
    If we'd had a referendum on Maastricht it would have been won by Yes, and given that Thatcher would have likely been actively campaigning for No, would have provided the cathartic public defeat that the party denied her and drained the poison that infected the Eurosceptic right ever since.
    Based on a hunch, or was there actually polling on the issue?
    Maastricht may have been won by YES but Lisbon would have been won by NO. Lisbon was first offered as a Constitution and when that did not go down well it was changed to a Treaty. The ultimate devious play by the EU and its supporters. As a French big wig said it was important that it was so complicated that most people wouldn't understand it.

  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017

    Pong said:


    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    Do you think what the tories did was acceptable?
    If laws were broken, then clearly not.

    That said, I don't regard bussing activists in as the most egregious breach of the law when, for example, had those same activists made the same journey in their own cars, it would have been perfectly legitimate.
    Yes, yes, the activists could have slept on park benches too, which would have made it all perfectly legitimate. But they didn't.

    From the EC report;

    "Bridgewood Manor: 597 nights between 6 October and 22
    November 2014 at a cost of £51,191.16"

    If you have evidence of illegal activity by other parties, submit it to the electoral commission.

    The tories appear to have bought themselves elections and then lied about it.

    That's not ok.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017

    Danny565 said:


    I've also got a feeling May is a better fit for Merseyside than Cameron & Osborne were -- she's less obviously Southern(!!) or supercilious, and her classy handling of the Hillsborough inquiries earned her some goodwill round these parts even among people who usually hate the Tories.

    I agree regarding Merseyside, but some of the majorities the Conservatives have to overcome are astronomical. Yes, Wirral West is lost but the rest of the seats will (probably) stay Red (Southport excepted which will probably stay LD or else go CON, and I have some doubts over Wirral South).

    Too many voters round here are Donkey with Red Rosette voters and 'Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!', 'We hate the tories! They eat babies.'

    In my seat of Bootle, Labour's majority of 28,000 is bigger than some seats winning vote share. And Bootle *isn't* even the safest seat anymore. Knowsley has a safer majority and vote share, and Liverpool West Derby has a higher vote share.

    If ANY seat in Merseyside except Wirral West goes Blue from Red then we really are looking at the destruction of Labour. And if it's more than just Wirral West and Wirral South, for instance, Wallasey, then it's really game over for the Labour party.
    Oh I agree, I wouldn't expect any seats except for Wirral West, Southport and possibly Wirral South to fall (I think Tories are very narrow favourites in the latter).

    I was just making the point of why I expected the Tories to take Southport, even despite their results in the 2016 local elections there (pre-Theresa May) being so poor.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    I could feel it in my water.

    'Gordon Brown: SNP and Tories to blame for rising child poverty'

    http://tinyurl.com/k8ged4k
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 47% (-)
    LAB: 28% (-)
    LDEM: 8% (-1)
    UKIP: 8% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via @ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

    Labour still far too high for comfort...
    Paging agent Abbott........
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    kle4 said:

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
    And yet it is one which I imagine she does not mind at all - being bloody difficult can be made to be a virtue in the right circumstances, and it fits her persona and image.
    Agreed.

    In the original quip from Clarke he went on to say that May doesn't know much about foreign affairs...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Did May deliberately say something about 'bloody difficult' to get Abbott off the front and lead of BBC? Save Jezza campaign? Or am I being too cynical?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    Pong said:


    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    Do you think what the tories did was acceptable?
    If laws were broken, then clearly not.

    That said, I don't regard bussing activists in as the most egregious breach of the law when, for example, had those same activists made the same journey in their own cars, it would have been perfectly legitimate.

    The tories appear to have bought themselves elections.

    That's not ok.
    What they did, if proven, was not ok. It is not the same thing to say they bought the election, because we don't know that what they did won it for them. At best you can say they attempted to buy the election, and even that depends on exactly what is being alleged in a given seat - assigning local spend incorrectly as national meaning you went over by 200 would be lesser an allegation than just flagrantly overspending by 200k, even if both are still offenses in need of punishment of some sort.

    The egregiousness of the breaches and the number sent for prosecution will be critical in determining if anyone beyond the already converted responds to this story. If a handful are charged for incorrect accounting but minimal overspend, its still wrong in my view, but I cannot see that gaining a huge deal of traction as a story outside the regular places.

    I think the way all the parties either ignored the rules or didn't care enough to follow them is a disgrace, but the political narrative building is shooting a little high unless there's some really juicy stuff coming.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    isam said:

    murali_s said:

    Jsut heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country is crying out laughing, I just cry. Sad, sad times...

    It's possibly on a par with the Natalie Bennett interview. However, the G. Party replaced Natalie Bennett and has a leader and deputy leader who are better communicators than Corbyn, Abbott or arguably McD.

    It's sad that a minor party now seems to run its affairs better than the party of Clem Attlee, Nye Bevan, Roy Jenkins et al.
    Abbott & Cost-ello ello ello
    At least Bennett was ill on the day of the interview, and should have just pulled out and taken the lemsips.

    What's Abbott's excuse?
    Migraine?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Divvie, might as well be: "Gordon Brown: everyone who isn't me is to blame for bad things."

    Also, is that relative poverty, which is a bullshit term, or absolute poverty?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299
    edited May 2017
    Remember DUP, UUP and Carswell supported a referendum, even ignoring a few Lab MPs.

    Any more than 312 Con MPs and there would have been a Con Minority Govt (supported by DUP/UUP/Carswell) which would have held the referendum. Con actually got 331.

    So people need to show Con would have won 20 fewer seats than they did - that seems very, very, very unlikely.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I am not the person the opposition is putting forward as the next Home Secretary. Her appalling performance on police numbers obliterated any chance the party had of its policy getting attention. You listen to that Abbott clip and unless you are deranged think: these Corbynites couldn’t run a tap. You wouldn’t send them for a loaf.

    https://reaction.life/state-labour-mcdonnell-posing-communists-diane-abbott-shadow-home-secretary/
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,047
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My current prediction for the LibDems:

    HOLDS
    Ceredigion
    Sheffield Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

    LOSSES
    Southport (to Cons)
    Carshalton (to Cons)
    North Norfolk (to Cons)
    Richmond Park (to Cons)
    Leeds North West (to Lab - bit of a wildcard admittedly)

    GAINS
    Twickenham (from Cons)
    Kingston & Surbiton (from Cons)
    Oxford West & Abingdon (from Cons)
    East Dunbartonshire (from SNP)
    Edinburgh West (from SNP)

    Leaving them unchanged on 9 seats overall.

    I can't see Leeds NW going Lab. It's a Remain facing constituency, and Greg had a pretty good lead over Labour.

    I can't see Kingston & Surbiton going Yellow either.

    And if you're going to use local defences to say that the LDs won't gain Cambridge, then you need to point to the LDs in Southport last year where they were up 7% on their 2012 vote share while the Conservatives fell back.
    The difference is that, while it's fairly common for the Lib Dems to underperform local election results in GEs, it's far less common for them to overperform - especially by a margin of 20%.

    I've also got a feeling May is a better fit for Merseyside than Cameron & Osborne were -- she's less obviously Southern(!!) or supercilious, and her classy handling of the Hillsborough inquiries earned her some goodwill round these parts even among people who usually hate the Tories.
    Fair points. I still expect the LDs to gain Cambridge, probably fairly comfortably. Southport will be touch-and-go.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Did May deliberately say something about 'bloody difficult' to get Abbott off the front and lead of BBC? Save Jezza campaign? Or am I being too cynical?

    No, but she knows that casting herself as the dogged Britannia Boudica who'll take no shit from the Europeans is the best image for her as far as the public goes.

    It also helps make the case why there should be a Tory landslide, rather than just a Tory win ("if we show the EU the country is united behind her, she'll be in an even stronger position for Britain in the negotiations").
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283



    I'd agree with all of that. The Alliance / SDP could have been a success but for an unfortunate sequence of events.

    (snip)

    There is only space under FPTP (and, generally, other electoral systems), for two main parties or coalitions. For the SDP to have thrived, they would have had to have pushed Labour to the fringes and reduced them to a third-party status. And yet that's very nearly the course Labour chose for itself anyway.

    I'm one of the few people apart from one T. Blair who is still active and who was a candidate in that election (in Chelsea, God help me). I remember the desperate days when we thought we were coming third. We pulled back in the final week when bedrock loyalty reasserted itself - summed up by one voter who said to me, "I suppose so - you don't stop supporting your football team when it's near relegation, do you?" At one point we thought we'd go under 20%: we ended up with 28% to the Alliance 26%.

    It actually feels much better now. First, the main problem is not that Labour's vote is dropping through the floor but that the Tories are getting Kippers by the lorryload, which is unfortunate but not something we can obviously do much about. Second, the LibDems made what seemed to be a smart decision in demanding a second referendum but where they'd have been better off with Labour's more muffled line, because nakedly opposing a decision that voters have just made is a bad look - the sensible Remain position is to play it long and wait for negotiations to get deadlocked. Third, the LibDems were perceived as wasting a whole week of the campaign trying to decide if homosexuality was a sin, an issue possibly of interest to the wilder fringes of UKIP but nobody else. And fourth, the SDP precedent is scaring centrists from the whole idea.
    "It actually feels much better now."

    You'll be laying the CON 400+ seats on BF then? One or two PBers are waiting on the other side of the bet.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @YouGov: Would Brits want to remain or leave a seriously reformed EU? 29% would want to remain, 30% would want to leave

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/859444143550025728
  • Options

    Did May deliberately say something about 'bloody difficult' to get Abbott off the front and lead of BBC? Save Jezza campaign? Or am I being too cynical?

    Yes, that is too cynical. At this point, May and the Conservatives simply want to win by the largest margin they can.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My current prediction for the LibDems:

    HOLDS
    Ceredigion
    Sheffield Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

    LOSSES
    Southport (to Cons)
    Carshalton (to Cons)
    North Norfolk (to Cons)
    Richmond Park (to Cons)
    Leeds North West (to Lab - bit of a wildcard admittedly)

    GAINS
    Twickenham (from Cons)
    Kingston & Surbiton (from Cons)
    Oxford West & Abingdon (from Cons)
    East Dunbartonshire (from SNP)
    Edinburgh West (from SNP)

    Leaving them unchanged on 9 seats overall.

    I can't see Leeds NW going Lab. It's a Remain facing constituency, and Greg had a pretty good lead over Labour.

    I can't see Kingston & Surbiton going Yellow either.

    And if you're going to use local defences to say that the LDs won't gain Cambridge, then you need to point to the LDs in Southport last year where they were up 7% on their 2012 vote share while the Conservatives fell back.
    They will NOT hold Westmorland and Lonsdale.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Scott_P said:

    I am not the person the opposition is putting forward as the next Home Secretary. Her appalling performance on police numbers obliterated any chance the party had of its policy getting attention. You listen to that Abbott clip and unless you are deranged think: these Corbynites couldn’t run a tap. You wouldn’t send them for a loaf.

    https://reaction.life/state-labour-mcdonnell-posing-communists-diane-abbott-shadow-home-secretary/

    Or, in the immortal words of Rowen Atkinson's wedding speech: "I wouldn't trust him to sit on a toilet the right way around."
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. P, a seriously reformed EU is not a realistic prospect, unless the reform is towards federalism.

    Mr. 565, she should aspire to emulate Elizabeth I, not Boudicca. Better longevity, and success.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    Good question: we need an answer to that. Rentoul was writing the other day that Jezza could never be PM because he could never have confidence of the House.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    Silly woman. She just needs to grow up! I weep!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    I sounds ok at first (On the doorstep), but then you step back have a think about it and realise it is utterly ludicrous. That line could lead to some dreadful canvas data for Labour.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My current prediction for the LibDems:

    HOLDS
    Ceredigion
    Sheffield Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

    LOSSES
    Southport (to Cons)
    Carshalton (to Cons)
    North Norfolk (to Cons)
    Richmond Park (to Cons)
    Leeds North West (to Lab - bit of a wildcard admittedly)

    GAINS
    Twickenham (from Cons)
    Kingston & Surbiton (from Cons)
    Oxford West & Abingdon (from Cons)
    East Dunbartonshire (from SNP)
    Edinburgh West (from SNP)

    Leaving them unchanged on 9 seats overall.

    I can't see Leeds NW going Lab. It's a Remain facing constituency, and Greg had a pretty good lead over Labour.

    I can't see Kingston & Surbiton going Yellow either.

    And if you're going to use local defences to say that the LDs won't gain Cambridge, then you need to point to the LDs in Southport last year where they were up 7% on their 2012 vote share while the Conservatives fell back.
    They will NOT hold Westmorland and Lonsdale.
    Ah yes. 8/1 on the Tories winning on Betfair, fill your boots.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    PaulM said:



    Didn't we do that already with the SDP in the 80s ?

    The "beware the SDP" line is overused, in my view. It's

    I'd also note that the proposed mechanism (or the rumoured one that does the rounds anyway) isn't like the Alliance's odd separate-but-together concept, and coupons for SDP or Liberal candidates in seats. It's a straight off Centre Party from day one.
    I'd agree with all of that. The Alliance / SDP could have been a success but for an unfortunate sequence of events.

    Firstly, and perhaps most critically, Healey defeated Benn in 1981: only just, but 'only just' was enough. That election proved that there was a sensible Labour still worth saving and undoubtedly kept a goodly number of centre-left activists and MPs on board. Peter Mandelson identifies that election as the moment he decided not to jump ship.

    Secondly, the Falklands Effect. The psephological consequences of the Falklands are usually remembered in terms of the Tory Party, which shot up from the high 20s around the turn of 1981-2 up to the high 40s by the beginning of May. What's less well remembered is that the biggest loser in that swing was not Labour (who dropped only from the low 30s to the high 20s), but the Alliance, which had been polling in the 40s and 10 points clear, and which lost nearly half its vote share and fell from first to third.

    And thirdly, the 1983 landslide cost Tony Benn his seat. Had he remained an MP, he would have been the flagbearer again of the hard left in the leadership election to replace Foot and might have won. Had he done so, Labour would have backed the NUM outright in 1984-5, failed to begin the reform process, taken little if no action against Militant and, consequently, pushed the moderates out one way or another.

    There is only space under FPTP (and, generally, other electoral systems), for two main parties or coalitions. For the SDP to have thrived, they would have had to have pushed Labour to the fringes and reduced them to a third-party status. And yet that's very nearly the course Labour chose for itself anyway.
    All valid points for those that remember the eighties.

    It is also worth observing that in her "landslide" of 1983, she had a lower vote share than she did in 79. Indeed in terms of voteshare she dropped further in 87.

    The thing that really haunts the left is not the individual seats lost because of the SDP, but splitting the opposition vote and lettiing Maggie have an unnecessarily large majority.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    My current prediction for the LibDems:

    HOLDS
    Ceredigion
    Sheffield Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

    LOSSES
    Southport (to Cons)
    Carshalton (to Cons)
    North Norfolk (to Cons)
    Richmond Park (to Cons)
    Leeds North West (to Lab - bit of a wildcard admittedly)

    GAINS
    Twickenham (from Cons)
    Kingston & Surbiton (from Cons)
    Oxford West & Abingdon (from Cons)
    East Dunbartonshire (from SNP)
    Edinburgh West (from SNP)

    Leaving them unchanged on 9 seats overall.

    I can't see Leeds NW going Lab. It's a Remain facing constituency, and Greg had a pretty good lead over Labour.

    I can't see Kingston & Surbiton going Yellow either.

    And if you're going to use local defences to say that the LDs won't gain Cambridge, then you need to point to the LDs in Southport last year where they were up 7% on their 2012 vote share while the Conservatives fell back.
    They will NOT hold Westmorland and Lonsdale.
    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    kle4 said:

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
    And yet it is one which I imagine she does not mind at all - being bloody difficult can be made to be a virtue in the right circumstances, and it fits her persona and image.
    Agreed.

    In the original quip from Clarke he went on to say that May doesn't know much about foreign affairs...
    I must confess i don't understand how being a 'bloody difficult woman' is meant to help us build a 'new positive constructive partnership' with the EU as May has also said in the past.

    If all we had to do was achieve was a divorce being difficult would be fine but since we also have to sign a new relationship with the EU being difficult for the sake of it seems stupid.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    JonathanD said:

    kle4 said:

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
    And yet it is one which I imagine she does not mind at all - being bloody difficult can be made to be a virtue in the right circumstances, and it fits her persona and image.
    Agreed.

    In the original quip from Clarke he went on to say that May doesn't know much about foreign affairs...
    I must confess i don't understand how being a 'bloody difficult woman' is meant to help us build a 'new positive constructive partnership' with the EU as May has also said in the past.

    If all we had to do was achieve was a divorce being difficult would be fine but since we also have to sign a new relationship with the EU being difficult for the sake of it seems stupid.
    Oh that's not on the radar, landing a small country's worth of UKIP votes on June 8th is by far the more immediate concern.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    I sounds ok at first (On the doorstep), but then you step back have a think about it and realise it is utterly ludicrous.
    Yes it is. Will the prospect of a terrifyingly large Tory majority eclipse how ridiculous it is? Possibly, but IDK.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    I sounds ok at first (On the doorstep), but then you step back have a think about it and realise it is utterly ludicrous. That line could lead to some dreadful canvas data for Labour.
    Voters must not take the risk though. What if every former Labour voter took this attitude? We might be in hung parliament territory.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Ooh, the day improves.

    Just sold my book to.... Estonia. A surprisingly generous offer from the impoverished Balts, there. And I've been told by the Times I'm going to.... Ethiopia.

    Brexit will be fine. All is good. Cheer up everyone. Diane Abbott is still trending at number 1.

    *whistles happily*

    I am not sure I would be so down on Estonia. Lots going for it, plenty of high tech business etc etc etc.
    I'm only teasing. I've been to Estonia and its nice. Beautiful laydees.

    Also they've just given me €1300. Not a game changing amount of money, but it all adds up, when you put together all the little countries - especially when I've spent the entire day on my fat arse, doing nothing, arguing on here, at the end of the day I'm still a grand richer? Sweet.
    53% of a grand richer...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    JonathanD said:

    kle4 said:

    Theresa May says she will be a "bloody difficult woman" towards European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker during Brexit talks.

    That's Ken Clarke's line about her.
    And yet it is one which I imagine she does not mind at all - being bloody difficult can be made to be a virtue in the right circumstances, and it fits her persona and image.
    Agreed.

    In the original quip from Clarke he went on to say that May doesn't know much about foreign affairs...
    I must confess i don't understand how being a 'bloody difficult woman' is meant to help us build a 'new positive constructive partnership' with the EU as May has also said in the past.

    If all we had to do was achieve was a divorce being difficult would be fine but since we also have to sign a new relationship with the EU being difficult for the sake of it seems stupid.
    That was prior to them leaking about how we're completely deluded and have to give in to all demands and anything we ask for is stupid.

    We're into the realistic phase, where both sides have decided hard hard brexit is happening, and it is about pinning blame for any consequences on the other side.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JonathanD said:

    I must confess i don't understand how being a 'bloody difficult woman' is meant to help us build a 'new positive constructive partnership' with the EU as May has also said in the past.

    If all we had to do was achieve was a divorce being difficult would be fine but since we also have to sign a new relationship with the EU being difficult for the sake of it seems stupid.

    It doesn't sit well with the Brexiteers' assertions this morning that it was the EU that were talking up failure, certainly.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,917
    murali_s said:

    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.

    First time I won't be voting Labour in years because I know that if I do it will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. Faced with a potential government led by Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot voters are going to run a mile and the best that NickP can come up with is that it might not be as bad as 1983. Jesus wept, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    I sounds ok at first (On the doorstep), but then you step back have a think about it and realise it is utterly ludicrous.
    Yes it is. Will the prospect of a terrifyingly large Tory majority eclipse how ridiculous it is? Possibly, but IDK.
    The model for that kind of strategy is the 1996 US elections, where in the final weeks the Republicans started running a "Clinton will be re-elected President, so vote Republican for Congress to keep him on a tight leash" message. It worked, sort of.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Cumbria/Mr. kle4, but do you think it will be a Con or Fish Finger gain?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Scott_P said:

    @YouGov: Would Brits want to remain or leave a seriously reformed EU? 29% would want to remain, 30% would want to leave

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/859444143550025728

    Reformed how?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: Want to know what Ireland thinks about Brexit? Here's its negotiating position in just 68 pages: http://www.merrionstreet.ie/MerrionStreet/en/EU-UK/Key_Irish_Documents/Government_Position_Paper_on_Brexit.pdf
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    Scott_P said:

    JonathanD said:

    I must confess i don't understand how being a 'bloody difficult woman' is meant to help us build a 'new positive constructive partnership' with the EU as May has also said in the past.

    If all we had to do was achieve was a divorce being difficult would be fine but since we also have to sign a new relationship with the EU being difficult for the sake of it seems stupid.

    It doesn't sit well with the Brexiteers' assertions this morning that it was the EU that were talking up failure, certainly.
    We're both talking up failure. The assertion of some that only we are causing friction unnecessarily is what is incorrect.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    kle4 said:

    Wow. Finally managed to listen to all of the initial Abbott interview. Wow. Her claim she just misspoke is clearly an absolute stinking lie, given her multiple attempts, pauses to think before answering, confirming figures after a minute's opportunity to realise the error. And she's always so offended and condescending whenever someone points out she's made such mistakes.

    And Labour MPs want her to be Home Secretary.

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    While not being a fan of huge majorities, in addition to thinking perhaps one is necessary for Labour to learn its lesson, I almost wish Labour do worse for no reason other than from what I hear of Foot, even with the manifesto he had, he doesn't deserve to be the low bar for modern leaders leading their parties to massive defeats.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,971

    kle4 said:

    Wow. Finally managed to listen to all of the initial Abbott interview. Wow. Her claim she just misspoke is clearly an absolute stinking lie, given her multiple attempts, pauses to think before answering, confirming figures after a minute's opportunity to realise the error. And she's always so offended and condescending whenever someone points out she's made such mistakes.

    And Labour MPs want her to be Home Secretary.

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?
    Surely it is being written as we type?

    And the Headline should be "Abbott & Cost-Ello Ello Ello"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?

    A good, old-fashioned, PB, Diane is Crap thread...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    OllyT said:

    murali_s said:

    Just heard the Dianne Abbott car crash interview.

    Embarrasing, just embarassing. The party that has given us some of the greatest political figures of the 20th century now give us Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell. While most of the country are shedding tears through laughter, I just cry.

    The Labour party which I love so much is being reduced to a joke. Sad, sad times...

    I can't wait for 9th June when we can get rid of these idiots and ideally kick them out of the party. Let them go and form a Momentum party if they like. These morons make the Militant tendency look like intellectual heavyweights.

    First time I won't be voting Labour in years because I know that if I do it will be interpreted as a vote for Corbyn. Faced with a potential government led by Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot voters are going to run a mile and the best that NickP can come up with is that it might not be as bad as 1983. Jesus wept, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
    A Labour vote is a vote for the party to retain Corbyn. Simples.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Abbott has stolen a living from licence payers for years, she is reason enough to scrap the BBC
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,971
    Scott_P said:

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?

    A good, old-fashioned, PB, Diane is Crap thread...
    Last one we had was tipping her as next leader wasn't it?!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited May 2017

    kle4 said:

    Wow. Finally managed to listen to all of the initial Abbott interview. Wow. Her claim she just misspoke is clearly an absolute stinking lie, given her multiple attempts, pauses to think before answering, confirming figures after a minute's opportunity to realise the error. And she's always so offended and condescending whenever someone points out she's made such mistakes.

    And Labour MPs want her to be Home Secretary.

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?
    Corbyn(istas) are crap treads emerge btl on their own continually I guess, and while amusing and horrifying, it probably won't have any impact. Those off the Corbyn train already know why, and those still on it now will put it down to biased media, sexism, racism or whatever.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Dear me, what an absurdly partisan take from Mark. "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "

    Let's hope he's never a juror.

    And 'the largest British political scandal ever'. No Mark, it isn't, it really isn't. Nothing, for example, like a very senior LibDem cabinet minister having to resign over the crime of perverting the course of justice. Or, for that matter, the curious incident of the dog dead by the roadside.

    Or the wholesale and open sale of honours.

    Or that one with the Russian spy, the aristocrat and the call girl.

    Or Expenses.

    Or taking the country into war on a lie.

    Or lying about how the country was taken into war, after the event.

    Or ruling without parliament / taking arms against the king.

    If this is anything, it's nothing more than an accounting fiddle.

    As an aside, what scandal would you nominate as the largest British scandal ever?
    The one involving the King and the Frenchwoman and the... you know. Successfully covered up.
    I wouldn't call the Wars of the Roses a particularly successful cover up.
    Do you remember what the scandal was?

    I'd call it a very effective dead cat strategy
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    Can't be long until abbott claims it is something or other to dow with racism that she is getting torn apart.

    Maybe it was that migraine which forced her to miss the A50 vote? Or maybe she's just a bit thick.

    Seriously - all these Labour candidates saying don't worry cos Jezza can't win, are they also saying they'd vote him down in a hung parliament scenario?
    I sounds ok at first (On the doorstep), but then you step back have a think about it and realise it is utterly ludicrous.
    Yes it is. Will the prospect of a terrifyingly large Tory majority eclipse how ridiculous it is? Possibly, but IDK.
    The model for that kind of strategy is the 1996 US elections, where in the final weeks the Republicans started running a "Clinton will be re-elected President, so vote Republican for Congress to keep him on a tight leash" message. It worked, sort of.
    That's a split ticket vote though. Labour would be better off if it was Corbyn vs May for El Presidente and the Commons was the Senate or HoR.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554
    Lab gain Finchley & Golders Green at 8/1?


    @jessicaelgot: One to watch - Labour pick JLM's @Jeremy_Newmark, former spox for chief rabbi, as candidate in Finchley & Golders Green

  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307



    I'd agree with all of that. The Alliance / SDP could have been a success but for an unfortunate sequence of events.

    (snip)

    There is only space under FPTP (and, generally, other electoral systems), for two main parties or coalitions. For the SDP to have thrived, they would have had to have pushed Labour to the fringes and reduced them to a third-party status. And yet that's very nearly the course Labour chose for itself anyway.

    I'm one of the few people apart from one T. Blair who is still active and who was a candidate in that election (in Chelsea, God help me). I remember the desperate days when we thought we were coming third. We pulled back in the final week when bedrock loyalty reasserted itself - summed up by one voter who said to me, "I suppose so - you don't stop supporting your football team when it's near relegation, do you?" At one point we thought we'd go under 20%: we ended up with 28% to the Alliance 26%.

    It actually feels much better now. First, the main problem is not that Labour's vote is dropping through the floor but that the Tories are getting Kippers by the lorryload, which is unfortunate but not something we can obviously do much about. Second, the LibDems made what seemed to be a smart decision in demanding a second referendum but where they'd have been better off with Labour's more muffled line, because nakedly opposing a decision that voters have just made is a bad look - the sensible Remain position is to play it long and wait for negotiations to get deadlocked. Third, the LibDems were perceived as wasting a whole week of the campaign trying to decide if homosexuality was a sin, an issue possibly of interest to the wilder fringes of UKIP but nobody else. And fourth, the SDP precedent is scaring centrists from the whole idea.
    Actually it is something you can do something about. Many of them UKIP supporters voted Labour at one time.

    They haven't come back because your leader, like the last one, is sh*t.


  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    murali_s said:

    Tories 400+ seats is good value folks. Fill your boots.

    Possible fly in the ointment is the Tory election expenses. Even then it comes down to sleazy cheating Tories versus the hopeless dimwits that is the Labour party. Very disappointed that the LDs are not making any headway.

    Perhaps re-branding as Battyboy Haram was not the masterstroke it first looked?

    And you call other party leaders "silly".
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,554

    kle4 said:

    Wow. Finally managed to listen to all of the initial Abbott interview. Wow. Her claim she just misspoke is clearly an absolute stinking lie, given her multiple attempts, pauses to think before answering, confirming figures after a minute's opportunity to realise the error. And she's always so offended and condescending whenever someone points out she's made such mistakes.

    And Labour MPs want her to be Home Secretary.

    you'd think it might be worth a thread perhaps?
    I did think about writing one, but it feels cruel, a bit like laughing at a Bobby Soldado miss or Jade Dernbach bowling.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,724
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @YouGov: Would Brits want to remain or leave a seriously reformed EU? 29% would want to remain, 30% would want to leave

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/859444143550025728

    Reformed how?
    Do you think Macron will push for EU reforms?
This discussion has been closed.