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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling suggests that CON London strongholds could be vulnerable to Stop Brexit candidates
The Survation Kensington poll in the chart above has been commissioned by a body called the Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA) to rest the feasibility of putting forward candidates in London CON strongholds where neither Labour not the Lib Dens have any chance, My understanding is that other similar seats are being looked at and hopefully we will have the data within the next few days.
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3446681/jeremy-corbyn-is-heading-for-a-rout-in-junes-general-election-as-he-lags-behind-theresa-may/
Con 19% Lead.
Also says Conservatoives have an 11% lead in marginals - How would that compare with 2015?
Rachel Johnson - who lives in Kensington and has just joined the LDs but cannot stand for them under party rules - is an obvious candidate? Labour and LibDem voters are unlikely to want to vote for a former Tory MP.
' The party stood 84 candidates in the European Parliament elections, receiving 138,097 votes, or 1.4% of the vote '
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro-Euro_Conservative_Party
Voters lose faith in SNP record on domestic issues, poll shows
Voters have become increasingly disillusioned with Nicola Sturgeon’s record on key domestic issues — including her high-profile efforts to improve Scottish education — according to a new poll.
In findings which could have a significant impact on her party’s performance in June’s general election, the YouGov poll found that the first minister has so far failed to persuade voters that her government is solving the country’s problems on health, the economy and education.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/voters-lose-faith-in-snp-record-on-domestic-issues-poll-shows-0mf2x6rrf?CMP=Sprkr-_-Editorial-_-thetimes-_-Politics-_-Imageandlink-_-Statement-_-Unspecified-_-ACCOUNT_TYPE&linkId=37039250
On what planet are the party whose main USP is now 'anti-Brexit' going to 'stand aside' to let a different anti-Brexit party win?
Sherwood: 14%
Amazon: 23%
Whitaker: 18%
Gump: 17%
Black Forest Gateaux: 28%
YouGov (Apr 29)
' The standard voting question in this poll found CON 46%; LAB 29%: LD 16.6%: UKIP 1.3%: GRN 6.9%. '
Change on 2015:
Con -6%
Lab -2%
LD +11%
UKIP -4%
Grn +2%
It does suggest that there's going to be no big increase (or perhaps any increase) for the Conservatives in Inner London.
Which makes Labour 7/2 to hold Westminster North even better value.
The LibDems getting a good increase in a safe Conservative seat doesn't do them any good either.
If the Liberal Democrats had 60 seats they would right now be in a position to clean up. But there is no way they would stand aside for another pro-EU party, nor can they exploit the situation effectively themselves.
When I first saw the headline, I thought this was going to be picking up on my earlier point about national swings no longer being uniform
And Labour's vote in Inner London consists of a lot more than some wish-washy middle class Remainers.
There's about as much chance of Kensington turfing out the Tories as there is of Labour losing Bootle. It ain't happening.
And I haven't seen much polling of inner-London. Please feel free to link ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/30/tory-grassroots-fury-selection-stitch-up-no10-allies-parachuted/
Brighton Pavilion 22,871 Green/ Tory deep targets
Bristol West 17,227 3 way
Sheffield Central 6,999 Safe Labour
Hackney North & Stoke Newington 7,281 Safe Labour
Norwich South 6,743 (One of the main 4)
Buckingham 7,400 (Speaker)
Isle of Wight 9,404 (Safe Tory)
Holborn & St Pancras 7,013 (Safe Labour)
Lewisham Deptford 5,932 (Safe Labour)
Liverpool Riverside 5,372 (Safe Labour)
Bath 5,634 Tory/LD marginal
Oxford East 5,890 Safe Labour/Deep LD target
Hackney South & Shoreditch 5,519 Safe Labour
Bristol South 5,861 Labour/Tory semi-marginal
Totnes 4,845 Safe Tory/Very deep LD target
Islington North 5,043 Safe Labour
Camberwell & Peckham 5,187 Safe Labour
York Central 4,791 Labour/moderate Tory target.
If Labour are eating into this vote, it isn't exactly marginal central - though it might help them in a couple of seats.
Has ICM actually polled the marginals or have The Sun just extrapolated from the Con 19% lead?
Perhaps you could point out to me which other constituencies you expect to be easy Conservative wins where both of these apply:
1) The council / social housing total is higher than the owner-occupied housing total.
2) The combined Black and Muslim population is higher than the White British population.
As to Inner London polling you have an example on this page - Labour down less than the Conservatives.
Stroud was mentioned as another example where in 2010 the Greens got 1,542 votes and Carmichael won by 1,299.
The argument was clearly silly as both seats were lost by much bigger margins in the following election and the Green vote barely changed. In any case, as you point out they are themselves pretty much an irrelevance in most seats.
However, people who follow Corbyn believe lots of strange things that bear no resemblance to reality. Would you believe, there are even some who think he would make a good PM?
Despite having joined the LibDems she is clearly independently minded and not a party politician - and it would be good if the various local parties in Kensington could get together and sort this out.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/858625460070215680
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/858630839298555904
CON low mid to high mid 40s
LAB mid-late 20s to 30
LDs high single figures - 12
Lot of room for varying majority size in there.
On 2) with the exception of places like Tower Hamlets ethnic make-up of the constituency tells you virtually nothing about how people will vote in London. 1) Proportion of owner-occupied/ renting does - and was indeed a big factor in Labour out-performing the rest of the country in 2015. Anecdotal evidence, and indications from canvassing seem to point towards a big Lab-LD swing motivated by Brexit.
Trolling appears to be de rigueur now.
We shall see...
Hmmm video won't post.
Interesting.
Perhaps you might offer something a bit more substantive in your contributions.
I don't have much sympathy with bag carriers - it's a rough job, but they asked for it - but I'd think shouldering blame is practically in the job description.
The Lib Dem and Labour numbers have a lot of the usual tell-tale signs - people who don't normally vote pledging for them, low certainty to vote overall, very low certainty to vote among the most supportive demographics.
In any event, I wanted to be realistic about the parties' prospects. It is easy to get carried away when spectacular polls appear, but a Conservative share north of 45% does not, TBH, smell right. I want the Tories to win (or, perhaps more accurately, Labour to lose) by as wide a margin as possible. But if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
My seat ranges, depending on how you slice and dice them, may fall marginally short of 650 as well, but given that I expect Ukip to fail to win anything regardless of how many candidates it stands, I am somewhat more confident about those.
Who knew that would happen? Who. Knew. ?
I wish all Tory leaders were that mediocre..
Possibility 2 - Labour do as terribly as predicted and win only a few of the mayoralties
Possibility 3 - LDs disappoint, showing little strength in areas they are trying to win back in the shire counties
Possibility 4 - LDs do even better than predicted, pushing a narrative than Tories are vulnerable
Possibility 5 - Tories do well, but in combination with 1 and 4 above not as well as they'd like, and opposition claim May is stuttering and made a mistake calling the GE.
Con 52%
Lab 31%
LibD 6%
Grn 5%
UKIP 5%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kensington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Don't bother with a witty don't let the door hit you on the arse comment, I'll already have left.
The mid-spread quotes are as follows:
Sporting goes Tories 389, Labour 161 seats
Spreadex goes Tories 390, Labour 157 seats
It seems the markets have not taken particular heed of OGH's thread header on this occasion.
It doesn't matter what was or was not said, it matters what we are being told was said.
Contrrary to Thomas Nashe's imprewssions, I'm not sensing much Lab->Lib movement, over Brexit or anything else (and the polling on the whole suggests I'm right). They're clearly off the floor, but not really getting defections en masse as Thomas thinks. But the tactical vote from Labour for LDs in seats where they're second or first has revived well as coalition memories fade.
The basic Tory problem is that floating voters do by and large accept that a Tory majority would be a good idea, but not a huge Tory majority. The Tories need a few bad poll outliers.
Even with the Jezziah, I have to say that looks a tall order.
There you go.
The LD score in this poll is indeed remarkable - and appears to be something not yet coming through in the national polls.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/labour-on-the-verge-of-losing-its-last-scottish-bastion-1-4433433
Once in power the SNP would open up the books on decades of SLAB nepotism and industrial scale corruption.
- personality of the new PM
- facing Corbyn and a divided Labour Party
- UKIP's post-Brexit irrelevance
- LibDems struggling to recover from 2015 collapse
Any other Tory leader would also have had three of these four advantages. How much difference do we think the first is making?
There is no doubt a case for judging which one has the best political skills, leadership skills, and so on, but a direct assessment of MP numbers taking no account of opposition, starting position and circumstances beyond the control of either, as some do, strikes me as not fair to either of them.
If feeling was really that strong there already is a Stop Brexit party called the Lib Dems yet they're on 16.6% to the Tories 46%