I'm extremely encouraged by all this talk about the screw up over the EMA lease.
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Trying to clear up confusion from previous thread so going to send a quick message to the Scottish Conservatives to see if any of them call themselves Tories. Going to message their Twitter account @ScotTories ... Oh.
Poor old Tories, they've spent so long twisting themselves out of shape to escape the toxic brand, they no longer know what to call themselves.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
Yeah. I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
What, like Marine Le Pen and the FN? Trump and the GOP?
I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
I find that hard to believe ....
I find that soft to believe.
I condole with your wretched situation.
However you should console yourself that others are more afflicted than you. Let us reflect on those Labour PPC's in "safe" seats awaiting a visitation from Jeremy Corbyn.
I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
I find that hard to believe ....
I find that soft to believe.
I condole with your wretched situation.
However you should console yourself that others are more afflicted than you. Let us reflect on those Labour PPC's in "safe" seats awaiting a visitation from Jeremy Corbyn.
Conservative gain Liverpool Wavertree?
On a more serious note, isn't there a real risk that this brings the Manchester Mayoral election into play - especially if the Jezziah decides to visit the last bastions of Labour north of Watford to avoid the hostile crowds pointing and laughing?
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
Yeah. I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
I thought we all lived in the UK?
The UK is a multinational state, like the former USSR (the clue is in the name), comprising several countries (or part of a country/province in the case of the 6 counties in the north of Ireland).
That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
never happened on here....
looking forward to the 105 UKIP MPs retaining their seats in June.
Triple Bogey - Three strokes more than par. Four strokes more than par is a quadruple bogey, 5 more is a quintuple, 6 is a sextuple, 7 is a throwuple, 8 is a blowuple, and 9 is an ohshutuple.
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
It should not be forgotten that in falsely (and repeatedly) claiming to be an Army officer it is possible Emily Thornberry committed a criminal offence.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
LOL. If there is anything here at all, it's a negligence action against EMA's solicitors. And EMA have done themselves no favours in such an action by broadcasting that they themselves thought there was no reason for a break clause.
but both men today to look a little more grandfatherly, and a little less like they are concealing Semtex in their red box (hahahahahahahahaha, Corbyn with a red box, ROFL, hahahahaha)
On-topic: pretty good for the Lib Dems too, but astounding to think in two election Labour might go from total dominance (at Westminster) in Scotland to being the fourth party.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
Do you have a link to The Times story?
It's subscription only. "Brussels wants Britain to pay for botched rental deal".
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
Do you have a link to The Times story?
It's subscription only. "Brussels wants Britain to pay for botched rental deal".
Im expecting the GDP figures to be good this morning. The Tory head office brief uve just recieved says they will be issuing a soecial briefing note after they have come out. They must know they are stonking..
To take both Pete Wishart's seat and Angus Robertson's seat would be beyond delicious. As Ruth said sometimes you can combine work with pleasure.
Personally I still see this as the 3 border seats +Aberdeen West + a series of half decent chances that may or may not come off but there is little doubt that the preponderance of those chances are in the north east.
The Tories are pretty buoyant in Edinburgh at the moment but both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West look like split Unionist votes with a considerable risk that the SNP come through the middle to me with the buoyancy of the Tories actually harming Labour and the Lib Dems respectively. These may become clearer after the locals next week.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
LOL. If there is anything here at all, it's a negligence action against EMA's solicitors. And EMA have done themselves no favours in such an action by broadcasting that they themselves thought there was no reason for a break clause.
Solicitors act under instruction from their clients. Many negligence claims are a result of clients looking to blame anyone but themselves for their incompetence.
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
It should not be forgotten that in falsely (and repeatedly) claiming to be an Army officer it is possible Emily Thornberry committed a criminal offence.
Major-General Nuttall will have to have words....stealing his USP!
Seems pretty straight forward - stay until 2024 to cover the cost of the move, at least:
European Medicines Agency signs lease for new office space
The European Medicines Agency has signed a 25-year lease agreement with Canary Wharf Group plcExternal link icon for office space in a new building on the Canary Wharf estate in London. The Agency plans to move in 2014, when the leases on its current premises expire.
The new building, currently under construction by Canary Wharf Group, will be located at 25 Churchill Place. The Agency will lease the basement, promenade, ground and first nine office floors in the 20-storey tower.
On 18 July 2011, the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency, following a favourable opinion from the Committee on Budgets.
The new building will enable the Agency to improve the efficiency of its use of space, reducing the overall floorspace rented and its annual expenditure. The Agency hopes to cover the costs of relocation with the savings that these reductions will bring over the first ten years of its tenancy.
The Tories are pretty buoyant in Edinburgh at the moment but both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West look like split Unionist votes with a considerable risk that the SNP come through the middle to me with the buoyancy of the Tories actually harming Labour and the Lib Dems respectively. These may become clearer after the locals next week.
Hopefully the local elections will be illuminating
I'm extremely encouraged by all this talk about the screw up over the EMA lease.
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Which assumes many things, including that the people who arrange office accommodation for a relatively small organisation falling within the EU's purview will be the same people negotiating the departure arrangements for one of its Member States.
I wonder why you persist in posting such nonsense. It must give you some kind of satisfaction I suppose.
"As a result of the campaign, Jeremy Corbyn will have to rely on winning seats from the Conservatives in England if he is to be the next Prime Minister."
There is one SNP seat that isn't listed on this that might go. The majority is high, but the SNP could lose alot of tartan Tories there.
Banff & Buchan 6-1 Paddy Power.
It is quite eurosceptic.
Banff swung strongly towards the Tories in 2010 when Salmond left the seat, but the SNP surge of 2015 stymied this. I'm expecting the Tories to be about 6-8% adrift here and pushing hard in 2022
On-topic: pretty good for the Lib Dems too, but astounding to think in two election Labour might go from total dominance (at Westminster) in Scotland to being the fourth party.
P1 does indeed start in an hour. Well, 46 minutes now...
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
It should not be forgotten that in falsely (and repeatedly) claiming to be an Army officer it is possible Emily Thornberry committed a criminal offence.
Major-General Nuttall will have to have words....stealing his USP!
"As a result of the campaign, Jeremy Corbyn will have to rely on winning seats from the Conservatives in England if he is to be the next Prime Minister."
Hahahhahahahahaha.
Hey now, I am sure he will win some in England. Always sone against the tide.
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
It should not be forgotten that in falsely (and repeatedly) claiming to be an Army officer it is possible Emily Thornberry committed a criminal offence.
Major-General Nuttall will have to have words....stealing his USP!
Private and grammar schools is another one. Let's look at where Abbot and co actually send their own kids.
Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
Seems pretty straight forward - stay until 2024 to cover the cost of the move, at least:
European Medicines Agency signs lease for new office space
The European Medicines Agency has signed a 25-year lease agreement with Canary Wharf Group plcExternal link icon for office space in a new building on the Canary Wharf estate in London. The Agency plans to move in 2014, when the leases on its current premises expire.
The new building, currently under construction by Canary Wharf Group, will be located at 25 Churchill Place. The Agency will lease the basement, promenade, ground and first nine office floors in the 20-storey tower.
On 18 July 2011, the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency, following a favourable opinion from the Committee on Budgets.
The new building will enable the Agency to improve the efficiency of its use of space, reducing the overall floorspace rented and its annual expenditure. The Agency hopes to cover the costs of relocation with the savings that these reductions will bring over the first ten years of its tenancy.
Nonsense. I'm placing 30 or 40 bets a day at least I don't have a gambling addiction.
Experts are warning that the UK must face up to the scale of its gambling problem with a lack of research, and industry influence, preventing proper scrutiny of a growing national habit.
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
I find that hard to believe ....
I find that soft to believe.
I condole with your wretched situation.
However you should console yourself that others are more afflicted than you. Let us reflect on those Labour PPC's in "safe" seats awaiting a visitation from Jeremy Corbyn.
Conservative gain Liverpool Wavertree?
On a more serious note, isn't there a real risk that this brings the Manchester Mayoral election into play - especially if the Jezziah decides to visit the last bastions of Labour north of Watford to avoid the hostile crowds pointing and laughing?
If it cones into play I will have to stop talking up labours chances for once. Polls have been stubborn for them, but you can only resist do long.
On topic: It looks like wee Jimmy Krankie has over-reached. Sindy looking as far away as ever. The problem with being a fanatic is that you only ever have one question and one answer - Socttish Independence in her case. Everything else gets subsumed and overpowered by that all-encompassing obsession. EU membership is her grievance of the month to require another referendum. But....amusingly...the Scots (especially the coastal ones) aren't keen. On current form I don't think there'll be another referendum, and certainly not before Scotland is already out of the EU (March 2019). She's way too frit to be pushing actual independence and pushing for full EU return (Euro, borders, rule from Brussels) is not going to win any hearts.
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Yep, there's plenty more where those came from. And when they've finished on Corbyn they can start on John "McIRA" before looking at Diane's hypocrisy and racism, and Lady Emily's complete disdain for Labour's core voters.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
It should not be forgotten that in falsely (and repeatedly) claiming to be an Army officer it is possible Emily Thornberry committed a criminal offence.
Major-General Nuttall will have to have words....stealing his USP!
He's been demoted from SCAFE?
Yes, he sent out a memo: "Don't call me SCAFE ace...."
I'm extremely encouraged by all this talk about the screw up over the EMA lease.
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Which assumes many things, including that the people who arrange office accommodation for a relatively small organisation falling within the EU's purview will be the same people negotiating the departure arrangements for one of its Member States.
I wonder why you persist in posting such nonsense. It must give you some kind of satisfaction I suppose.
Except of course, as the article Carlotta posts points out, "the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency"
Are you saying he was too insignificant to have needed to take into account the possibility of the UK leaving?
I would suggest it is you rather than ydoethur who are posting nonsense.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me slightly of a House episode about addiction.
Suppose we did have gambling addictions. And kept winning.
Is that a bad thing?
It's possible to be addicted to anything (a psychological addiction, chemical addiction, as can happen almost instantly with things like crystal meth, is different). Gardening, classical history, making terrible puns and so on.
Excessive exercise is actually a purgative approach taking by some bulimics, but would anyone accuse a man who worked out a lot of behaving that way because he was suffering a psychological condition? Probably not.
"As a result of the campaign, Jeremy Corbyn will have to rely on winning seats from the Conservatives in England if he is to be the next Prime Minister."
Hahahhahahahahaha.
Hey now, I am sure he will win some in England. Always sone against the tide.
I worry that Gavin Barwell will lose his seat to Labour.
Nonsense. I'm placing 30 or 40 bets a day at least I don't have a gambling addiction.
Experts are warning that the UK must face up to the scale of its gambling problem with a lack of research, and industry influence, preventing proper scrutiny of a growing national habit.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
Nonsense. I'm placing 30 or 40 bets a day at least I don't have a gambling addiction.
Experts are warning that the UK must face up to the scale of its gambling problem with a lack of research, and industry influence, preventing proper scrutiny of a growing national habit.
On topic: It looks like wee Jimmy Krankie has over-reached. Sindy looking as far away as ever. The problem with being a fanatic is that you only ever have one question and one answer - Socttish Independence in her case. Everything else gets subsumed and overpowered by that all-encompassing obsession. EU membership is her grievance of the month to require another referendum. But....amusingly...the Scots (especially the coastal ones) aren't keen. On current form I don't think there'll be another referendum, and certainly not before Scotland is already out of the EU (March 2019). She's way too frit to be pushing actual independence and pushing for full EU return (Euro, borders, rule from Brussels) is not going to win any hearts.
I won't relax until the snp are down into single figures. I've got a long long wait ahead.
I'm extremely encouraged by all this talk about the screw up over the EMA lease.
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Which assumes many things, including that the people who arrange office accommodation for a relatively small organisation falling within the EU's purview will be the same people negotiating the departure arrangements for one of its Member States.
I wonder why you persist in posting such nonsense. It must give you some kind of satisfaction I suppose.
Except of course, as the article Carlotta posts points out, "the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency"
Are you saying he was too insignificant to have needed to take into account the possibility of the UK leaving?
I would suggest it is you rather than ydoethur who are posting nonsense.
I'm extremely encouraged by all this talk about the screw up over the EMA lease.
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Which assumes many things, including that the people who arrange office accommodation for a relatively small organisation falling within the EU's purview will be the same people negotiating the departure arrangements for one of its Member States.
I wonder why you persist in posting such nonsense. It must give you some kind of satisfaction I suppose.
Except of course, as the article Carlotta posts points out, "the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency"
Are you saying he was too insignificant to have needed to take into account the possibility of the UK leaving?
I would suggest it is you rather than ydoethur who are posting nonsense.
Not my expertise, but isn't it normal to assign leases in this situation? This is hardly the first 25 year lease that needs to be terminated early due to unforseen circumstances. I would think the sensible thing is to assign the lease to the UK government. You can't get a blue chipier client than that and no money needs to change hands.
Seems pretty straight forward - stay until 2024 to cover the cost of the move, at least:
European Medicines Agency signs lease for new office space
The European Medicines Agency has signed a 25-year lease agreement with Canary Wharf Group plcExternal link icon for office space in a new building on the Canary Wharf estate in London. The Agency plans to move in 2014, when the leases on its current premises expire.
The new building, currently under construction by Canary Wharf Group, will be located at 25 Churchill Place. The Agency will lease the basement, promenade, ground and first nine office floors in the 20-storey tower.
On 18 July 2011, the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency, following a favourable opinion from the Committee on Budgets.
The new building will enable the Agency to improve the efficiency of its use of space, reducing the overall floorspace rented and its annual expenditure. The Agency hopes to cover the costs of relocation with the savings that these reductions will bring over the first ten years of its tenancy.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me slightly of a House episode about addiction.
Suppose we did have gambling addictions. And kept winning.
Is that a bad thing?
It's possible to be addicted to anything (a psychological addiction, chemical addiction, as can happen almost instantly with things like crystal meth, is different). Gardening, classical history, making terrible puns and so on.
Excessive exercise is actually a purgative approach taking by some bulimics, but would anyone accuse a man who worked out a lot of behaving that way because he was suffering a psychological condition? Probably not.
With the French Presidential election and a snap UK general election happening now, only months after the US race, anyone who had a cursory look at just how much time and money I've staked would say I have an addiction.
My mother would have an aneurysm if she knew my potential loss on the Tory seat spreads was close to £16,000
"As a result of the campaign, Jeremy Corbyn will have to rely on winning seats from the Conservatives in England if he is to be the next Prime Minister."
Hahahhahahahahaha.
Hey now, I am sure he will win some in England. Always sone against the tide.
I worry that Gavin Barwell will lose his seat to Labour.
Of all the things that might force a sleepless night, that one must be very low on anyone's list.
The truly insane thing is that if you look at the Hanretty analysis of BES data to see how voting distributions are changing... https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/warning-signs-for-labour-50b6cd1501d8 ... he's finding that the Tories were a hair under 10 points up in SNP-held seats back in January - against a national polling score of 39% (up by about 1% on the GE score).
There has to be a point where this distribution doesn't hold, and maybe the sample size was low, but if you overlay that onto their polling boost since, you get ridiculous numbers of Tory seats. No fewer than 19 (nearly comparable with 1983, but in a field of fewer seats)
My personal hesitance on this is that overlaying the national polling boost since then can lead to an error if the Tories had already come up with a big boost in Scotland by January over-and-above the national polling scores
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me slightly of a House episode about addiction.
Suppose we did have gambling addictions. And kept winning.
Is that a bad thing?
It's possible to be addicted to anything (a psychological addiction, chemical addiction, as can happen almost instantly with things like crystal meth, is different). Gardening, classical history, making terrible puns and so on.
Excessive exercise is actually a purgative approach taking by some bulimics, but would anyone accuse a man who worked out a lot of behaving that way because he was suffering a psychological condition? Probably not.
With the French Presidential election and a snap UK general election happening now, only months after the US race, anyone who had a cursory look at just how much time and money I've staked would say I have an addiction.
My mother would have an aneurysm if she knew my potential loss on the Tory seat spreads was close to £16,000
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
140 and a split might make things a bit squeaky bum
Im expecting the GDP figures to be good this morning. The Tory head office brief uve just recieved says they will be issuing a soecial briefing note after they have come out. They must know they are stonking..
They wont be.
But as the 2016q1 was only 0.2% there's a good chance that year on year growth will reach 2% or higher.
Which might allow some 'fastest growing economy in G7' talk or suchlike.
Not my expertise, but isn't it normal to assign leases in this situation? This is hardly the first 25 year lease that needs to be terminated early due to unforseen circumstances. I would think the sensible thing is to assign the lease to the UK government. You can't get a blue chipier client than that and no money needs to change hands.
In principle yes. In practice, hasn't the HMGs trend been to relocate civil servants into the cheaper regions. 9 prime floors in Canary Wharf would somewhat run against this trend.
FWIW, this is all footnote stuff, but it interesting only that it's indicative in showing behaviours. Britain will never leave the EU (clearly the underlying thinking of the EMA), the EU is perfect and the sort of stuff that some people post on here repetitively.
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Im expecting the GDP figures to be good this morning. The Tory head office brief uve just recieved says they will be issuing a soecial briefing note after they have come out. They must know they are stonking..
I hope they are for all our sakes.
But the briefing note could just be for the opposite reason.
Lot of talk of huge majorities on here etc of late. Now I stand second to nobody in my desire to see Corbyn and his dreadful acolytes sent to the dustbin of history, and the Labour Party to come back to sanity for the good of us all, but there's a couple of polls (Survation and latest YouGov) showing less stonking leads ( if very very good still), and the CPS swan is pruning itself to see if the feathers are black or white.
Can't see Corbyn winning or even winning by not losing, but sub 150? Hell of an ask.
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
It's worse than that. The Labour party is already short on real top talent: hence their leadership problems. Brown is mostly to blame for this in eliminating any rivals he might have had for the leadership (eeks, was it really ten years ago ...)
If they have a further reduction in seats at this election, then there will be fewer new, young MPs in the party, and they'll be left with more of the old guard who got them into this mess. If an MP requires at least one parliament to get on his or her feet before going for the leadership, then you're looking at the 2025-7 at the earliest before you'll get a sizeable influx of new blood and new ideas at the top of the party.
We'll know more in six weeks, but talent-wise, it seems like Labour might be much worse off than the Conservatives were in 1997.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Same issue with the greens claiming to be the sti Tory vote for the Isle of Wight, but they were just below labour before. Have to assume some snp MPs potentially under threat will squeak through.
Scottish greens helping out at all, do they typically stand everywhere?
but both men today to look a little more grandfatherly, and a little less like they are concealing Semtex in their red box (hahahahahahahahaha, Corbyn with a red box, ROFL, hahahahaha)
Welcome to PB - always good to have a new thoughtful, balanced commentator at a time when politics is a bit quiet.
Comments
If the EU's negotiators and lawyers are so dumb they fail to foresee so eminently foreseeable event as a member state leaving the EU, and negotiate an extortionate lease on a piece of rubbish office property in London without a break clause, and then seem surprised when it comes back to bite them - surely the odds of us getting a very good deal must be high?
Sept 15 / Mar 17
Sturgeon: +41 / +17
Davidson: 0 / +24
http://tinyurl.com/kfjumky
http://tinyurl.com/ny4wdh5
I agree with mummy, the Nasty Party it is!
However you should console yourself that others are more afflicted than you. Let us reflect on those Labour PPC's in "safe" seats awaiting a visitation from Jeremy Corbyn.
On a more serious note, isn't there a real risk that this brings the Manchester Mayoral election into play - especially if the Jezziah decides to visit the last bastions of Labour north of Watford to avoid the hostile crowds pointing and laughing?
what is the word for 1 to 8?
https://www.ft.com/content/4ad548c6-2b58-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
looking forward to the 105 UKIP MPs retaining their seats in June.
If they choose to do so, that's their business, and we shouldn't stop them. But it remains their choice.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CLFu4X4WgAAZo7C.png
https://thegerasites.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/corbyn-ira-87.jpg
Surely a PPB on Corbyn's past deeds would have Labour struggling to reach even 110 seats
Banff & Buchan 6-1 Paddy Power.
It is quite eurosceptic.
Orders more popcorn for the next six weeks.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03469/MP-Jeremy-Corbyn-w_3469446b.jpg
Caption: the man who hates Britain and wants to destroy the monarchy, in conversation with Gerry Adams.
This is not the most flattering juxtaposition
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/139/590x/gerry-adams-jeremy-corbyn-608475.jpg
but both men today to look a little more grandfatherly, and a little less like they are concealing Semtex in their red box (hahahahahahahahaha, Corbyn with a red box, ROFL, hahahahaha)
I think first practice starts in about an hour.
On-topic: pretty good for the Lib Dems too, but astounding to think in two election Labour might go from total dominance (at Westminster) in Scotland to being the fourth party.
Personally I still see this as the 3 border seats +Aberdeen West + a series of half decent chances that may or may not come off but there is little doubt that the preponderance of those chances are in the north east.
The Tories are pretty buoyant in Edinburgh at the moment but both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh West look like split Unionist votes with a considerable risk that the SNP come through the middle to me with the buoyancy of the Tories actually harming Labour and the Lib Dems respectively. These may become clearer after the locals next week.
European Medicines Agency signs lease for new office space
The European Medicines Agency has signed a 25-year lease agreement with Canary Wharf Group plcExternal link icon for office space in a new building on the Canary Wharf estate in London. The Agency plans to move in 2014, when the leases on its current premises expire.
The new building, currently under construction by Canary Wharf Group, will be located at 25 Churchill Place. The Agency will lease the basement, promenade, ground and first nine office floors in the 20-storey tower.
On 18 July 2011, the President of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, informed the Agency of his agreement on the relocation of the Agency, following a favourable opinion from the Committee on Budgets.
The new building will enable the Agency to improve the efficiency of its use of space, reducing the overall floorspace rented and its annual expenditure. The Agency hopes to cover the costs of relocation with the savings that these reductions will bring over the first ten years of its tenancy.
http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/news_and_events/news/2011/08/news_detail_001323.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1
I wonder why you persist in posting such nonsense. It must give you some kind of satisfaction I suppose.
Hahahhahahahahaha.
Experts are warning that the UK must face up to the scale of its gambling problem with a lack of research, and industry influence, preventing proper scrutiny of a growing national habit.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/27/12-billion-pounds-scale-uk-gambling-problem-experts-warn
Banff & Buchan Tories £3.58 @ 6-1
Moray Tories £15.40 @ 11-8
North East Fife LD £8.69 @ 5-2
Edinburgh West LD £17.17 @ 5-4
East Renfrewshire £8.69 @ 5-2
Aberdeen South £7.21 @ 3-1
WAK Tories Evens @ £21.41
BRS Tories 1-2 £42.06
D&G Tories 9-4 £9.41
DCT Tories 1-3 £62.99
Caithness LD 5-4 £16.95
D&G Tories 9-4 £11.10
BRS Tories 1.36 £10
DCT Tories 1.33 £75.10
Under 51.5 seats (SNP) £265.29 @ 5-6
Over 47.5 (SNP) £200 @ 5-6
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
Are you saying he was too insignificant to have needed to take into account the possibility of the UK leaving?
I would suggest it is you rather than ydoethur who are posting nonsense.
Suppose we did have gambling addictions. And kept winning.
Is that a bad thing?
It's possible to be addicted to anything (a psychological addiction, chemical addiction, as can happen almost instantly with things like crystal meth, is different). Gardening, classical history, making terrible puns and so on.
Excessive exercise is actually a purgative approach taking by some bulimics, but would anyone accuse a man who worked out a lot of behaving that way because he was suffering a psychological condition? Probably not.
"Don't call me Dick Face......."
http://www.ema.europa.eu/docs/en_GB/document_library/Presentation/2014/03/WC500163699.pdf
If the EU wishes to move it that's really rather up to them - and they can pick up the tab too.....why this enthusiasm for wasting tax payer money?
My mother would have an aneurysm if she knew my potential loss on the Tory seat spreads was close to £16,000
... he's finding that the Tories were a hair under 10 points up in SNP-held seats back in January - against a national polling score of 39% (up by about 1% on the GE score).
There has to be a point where this distribution doesn't hold, and maybe the sample size was low, but if you overlay that onto their polling boost since, you get ridiculous numbers of Tory seats. No fewer than 19 (nearly comparable with 1983, but in a field of fewer seats)
My personal hesitance on this is that overlaying the national polling boost since then can lead to an error if the Tories had already come up with a big boost in Scotland by January over-and-above the national polling scores
Dick Devine.....snigger.....
But as the 2016q1 was only 0.2% there's a good chance that year on year growth will reach 2% or higher.
Which might allow some 'fastest growing economy in G7' talk or suchlike.
FWIW, this is all footnote stuff, but it interesting only that it's indicative in showing behaviours. Britain will never leave the EU (clearly the underlying thinking of the EMA), the EU is perfect and the sort of stuff that some people post on here repetitively.
But the briefing note could just be for the opposite reason.
Lot of talk of huge majorities on here etc of late. Now I stand second to nobody in my desire to see Corbyn and his dreadful acolytes sent to the dustbin of history, and the Labour Party to come back to sanity for the good of us all, but there's a couple of polls (Survation and latest YouGov) showing less stonking leads ( if very very good still), and the CPS swan is pruning itself to see if the feathers are black or white.
Can't see Corbyn winning or even winning by not losing, but sub 150? Hell of an ask.
Mr. Eagles, I suspect you'll be alright.
I think my exposure to this election runs literally into the tens of pounds.
Just wish that splendid Wokingham bet had stood.
If they have a further reduction in seats at this election, then there will be fewer new, young MPs in the party, and they'll be left with more of the old guard who got them into this mess. If an MP requires at least one parliament to get on his or her feet before going for the leadership, then you're looking at the 2025-7 at the earliest before you'll get a sizeable influx of new blood and new ideas at the top of the party.
We'll know more in six weeks, but talent-wise, it seems like Labour might be much worse off than the Conservatives were in 1997.
Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2
Magnus Organ - Finnish politician
Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Scottish greens helping out at all, do they typically stand everywhere?
(Been waiting a while to use that one!)