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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gain

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gains in Scotland

Graphic – The times

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    First... *sounds the klaxon*
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,761
    @Sunil_Prasannan , @murali_s

    I have emailed you via Vanilla to pass on my respects and condolences.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,222
    Where the hell are the Scots going to get seven Pandas in six weeks?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    edited April 2017
    To get the 7 seats are they just adding the national 13% increase to each Tory 2015 constituency result ?

    In say Glasgow East where the Tories got 6% are they thinking they'll get 19% this time ? (more than triple)
    And in Angus the Tories would go from 29% to 42% ? (Just under 50% increase)

    Shouldn't it be proportional to the prior vote ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    For the Holyrood elections in 2016 Yougov overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in their polls, as did Panelbase and Survation.

    Similar corrections would have the Tories within 10 of the SNP in the real vote in June.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Sixth
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Fishing said:

    Where the hell are the Scots going to get seven Pandas in six weeks?

    Murdo Fraser was well ahead of you on this issue...

    Twitter
    Murdo Fraser‏Verified account @murdo_fraser Apr 22
    Those bloody pandas have a lot of work to do in the next 7 weeks... #GE2017
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Also worth noting- opposition to independence and referendum

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857733672090390528/photo/1
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited April 2017
    chestnut said:

    For the Holyrood elections in 2016 Yougov overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in their polls, as did Panelbase and Survation.

    Similar corrections would have the Tories within 10 of the SNP in the real vote in June.

    As with the Holyrood election campaign, watch the direction of travel for the SNP in the polls. A bit frustrating that recent Scottish polling has not featured personal polling figures for the Holyrood Leaders or May and Corbyn. Another vital key pointer to any swings which will effect the the outcome up here.
  • jdbtljdbtl Posts: 1
    "the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than 30 years ago"

    Actually, the Conservatives still had 11 (of 72) Scottish seats in 1992. It's only in 1997 that they lost everything, just 20 years ago.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Welcome to PB, @jdbtl!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    jdbtl said:

    "the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than 30 years ago"

    Actually, the Conservatives still had 11 (of 72) Scottish seats in 1992. It's only in 1997 that they lost everything, just 20 years ago.

    Welcome to PB @jdbtl.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    jdbtl said:

    "the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than 30 years ago"

    Actually, the Conservatives still had 11 (of 72) Scottish seats in 1992. It's only in 1997 that they lost everything, just 20 years ago.

    The only gain the Conservative party made off the Labour party in the 1992 GE was Aberdeen South, I was a voter in that constituency in that election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Good Morning. What would be the situation in East Lothian ? It could be interesting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    Good Morning. What would be the situation in East Lothian ? It could be interesting.

    Applying this opinion poll to the 2015 result gives:

    SNP 33.5%
    Con 32.5%
    Lab 25.0%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    viewcode said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan , @murali_s

    I have emailed you via Vanilla to pass on my respects and condolences.

    Those pandas you sold me, they walk around voting and not mating. You sold me... queer pandas. I want my money back!
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    why are Edinburgh South and Dumfrieshire showing as changing hands when the party is the same?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    JeremyBeadle said:

    why are Edinburgh South and Dumfrieshire showing as changing hands when the party is the same?

    Probably because they are sui generis.
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    but no Orkney & Shetland?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    JeremyBeadle said:

    but no Orkney & Shetland?

    Hah, good point ;)
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    Is there any chance the Tories can win back Edinburgh South? Would be great to have a Labour-free Scotland.
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    Paddy Power's odds: SNP 8/5, Tory & Lab both 13/8, Limp Dem 100/1.

    2010 Limp Dems got within 0.7% of victory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    JeremyBeadle said:

    Paddy Power's odds: SNP 8/5, Tory & Lab both 13/8, Limp Dem 100/1.

    2010 Limp Dems got within 0.7% of victory.

    and 0.9% in 2005 :p
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan , @murali_s

    I have emailed you via Vanilla to pass on my respects and condolences.

    Those pandas you sold me, they walk around voting and not mating. You sold me... queer pandas. I want my money back!
    Gay pandas are not a sin...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Fishing said:

    Where the hell are the Scots going to get seven Pandas in six weeks?

    Like
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    JeremyBeadle said:

    Paddy Power's odds: SNP 8/5, Tory & Lab both 13/8, Limp Dem 100/1.

    2010 Limp Dems got within 0.7% of victory.

    Lots of problems with the SNP candidate which got Lab over the line here last time. Bearing in mind the huge Remain vote and the potentially split opposition must be a good chance for the Nats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Bookmakers are so pessimistic about Jeremy Corbyn’s election prospects that they have made the Tories odds-on favourites to win dozens of constituencies that have been Labour fortresses for decades.

    Paddy Power anticipates Labour losing 67 seats. In individual constituencies, it said it was seeing “little to no interest” in backing Labour candidates.

    Jessica Bridge, of Ladbrokes, said that “despite the short odds on offer for the Tories, we cannot give Labour away”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.

    Already done.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JeremyBeadle said:

    why are Edinburgh South and Dumfrieshire showing as changing hands when the party is the same?

    From SNP to LD, yellow to orange.

    Much as I would like to see Jo Swinson back in Parliament, the SLDs are polling about half of where they are nationally. I cannot see it myself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    Don't want SCON to peak too soon now, do we? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    foxinsoxuk said:

    JeremyBeadle said:

    why are Edinburgh South and Dumfrieshire showing as changing hands when the party is the same?

    From SNP to LD, yellow to orange.

    Much as I would like to see Jo Swinson back in Parliament, the SLDs are polling about half of where they are nationally. I cannot see it myself.
    That's Edinburgh West.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Best observation from last night's thread was RobD's:

    The Conservatives in Scotland are closer to the SNP than Labour in England are to the Conservatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    RobD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    Don't want SCON to peak too soon now, do we? :D
    They have already.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    Bookmakers are so pessimistic about Jeremy Corbyn’s election prospects that they have made the Tories odds-on favourites to win dozens of constituencies that have been Labour fortresses for decades.

    Paddy Power anticipates Labour losing 67 seats. In individual constituencies, it said it was seeing “little to no interest” in backing Labour candidates.

    Jessica Bridge, of Ladbrokes, said that “despite the short odds on offer for the Tories, we cannot give Labour away”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b

    Some of the odds are getting silly, presumably because hard for the bookies to balance their books, as the only betting is on Tory or LD gains.

    I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example.

    The value may well be on Labour seats that hold on against the tide.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Why Brexit?

    More controversially, the authors argue that there may turn out not to be large costs from Brexit. They note that, for most countries (including Britain), EU membership has not had much impact: accession to the club has more often than not been followed by slower growth. Yet this is not convincing.[*] Nobody knows what would have happened had the country not joined. And most economists, including those at the impartial Bank of England, reckon that membership has made Britain more competitive, raising growth.

    What may be true is that other policy choices matter more than being in the world’s largest trading block.

    http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21721358-book-makes-rare-attempt-use-survey-data-find-some-answers-explaining?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/britainandtheeuropeanunionexplainingbritainsvotetoleavetheeu

    [*] MRDA
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    Don't want SCON to peak too soon now, do we? :D
    They have already.
    That's yet to be seen, surely?
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    "I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example"

    They didn't have Corbin 2 years ago
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    Don't want SCON to peak too soon now, do we? :D
    They have already.
    Citation required.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    fitalass said:

    chestnut said:

    For the Holyrood elections in 2016 Yougov overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in their polls, as did Panelbase and Survation.

    Similar corrections would have the Tories within 10 of the SNP in the real vote in June.

    As with the Holyrood election campaign, watch the direction of travel for the SNP in the polls. A bit frustrating that recent Scottish polling has not featured personal polling figures for the Holyrood Leaders or May and Corbyn. Another vital key pointer to any swings which will effect the the outcome up here.
    https://twitter.com/DrPaulMiddleton/status/857352961315540992
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited April 2017
    Theuniondivvie said:

    fitalass said:

    chestnut said:

    For the Holyrood elections in 2016 Yougov overstated the SNP and understated the Tories in their polls, as did Panelbase and Survation.

    Similar corrections would have the Tories within 10 of the SNP in the real vote in June.

    As with the Holyrood election campaign, watch the direction of travel for the SNP in the polls. A bit frustrating that recent Scottish polling has not featured personal polling figures for the Holyrood Leaders or May and Corbyn. Another vital key pointer to any swings which will effect the the outcome up here.
    https://twitter.com/DrPaulMiddleton/status/857352961315540992
    Ahh subsamples :D
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    This seems much more realistic than the last poll, still a huge jump for Rthie and her pale blues.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Why would that be Britain's fault?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JeremyBeadle said:

    "I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example"

    They didn't have Corbin 2 years ago

    Sure, but nonetheless odds of evens on the Tories in Leicester West, which stayed Labour even in 83 are a bit excessive.

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    foxinsoxuk said:

    JeremyBeadle said:

    "I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example"

    They didn't have Corbin 2 years ago

    Sure, but nonetheless odds of evens on the Tories in Leicester West, which stayed Labour even in 83 are a bit excessive.

    There must be good odds on Labour seats for the brave at some point, but it's always tricky catching a falling knife. I've placed a few bets on Labour in constituencies, but I'm not going mad yet.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Surely the cost just gets added to the Brexit Bill?

    The offices may be useful for the government, perhaps a new customs office to monitor all our new border tariffs.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited April 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    No. It is is better than others in the last week. The fewer Tory gains the better, as the slimmer majority that May has, the less authoritarian she will be able to be. I hope she doesn't make any net gains from this unnecessary GE.

    If eventually there has to be a hard border separating
    English-run territories from the EU, the best place is along the Cheviots.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/vote-save-union/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    I am Groot.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857733672090390528
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    A good poll for the Tories and a little better for Labour too. I remain sceptical about 8+ gains - several of these still loo fanciful to me. I see reduced SNP majorities for sure but I'd be surprised to see more than 5 ScoTories after the election. I also think it's unlikely that May's majority will be greater than 70 overall. That itself would be a very satisfying result - not least because it may leave Corbyn in power - or another cuckoo from the extreme left of the party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    JeremyBeadle said:

    "I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example"

    They didn't have Corbin 2 years ago

    Sure, but nonetheless odds of evens on the Tories in Leicester West, which stayed Labour even in 83 are a bit excessive.

    There must be good odds on Labour seats for the brave at some point, but it's always tricky catching a falling knife. I've placed a few bets on Labour in constituencies, but I'm not going mad yet.
    Labour held seats with a substantial Remain vote perhaps.

    I have put a couple of quid on Labour in Broxtowe. I can see Anna Soubry going off message and not getting kipper votes for example.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    RobD said:

    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Why would that be Britain's fault?
    Because we left the EU and that was an unforseeable event.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    IIRC from discussion last night, I went down the Tory target seat list and only found 13 SNP seats available in the top 150 targets. The balance are clearly those with truly gargantuan SNP majorities, and/or where Labour or the Lib Dems are the dominant challengers. And that 13 is only achievable if the direct 11% SNP-to-Con swing, which is bound not to be evenly distributed, just so happens to occur inn all the right places, *AND* there's more Unionist tactical voting in favour of Conservative candidates than leftists tactical voting against them, which I imagine still happens to some extent. Certainly, SNP majorities over the Conservatives are mostly so hefty that applying UNS alone only results in about six gains.

    We're only going to see whole chunks of the map turn blue if a meaningful proportion of the pro-independence vote switches from SNP to Con, and/or the Labour vote properly collapses and moves in the same direction. Both propositions, especially the former, are not particularly well supported by the evidence at this juncture.

    Methinks expectations need to be tempered.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    matt said:

    RobD said:

    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Why would that be Britain's fault?
    Because we left the EU and that was an unforseeable event.
    Interesting that they have an exit clause, but don't foresee anyone using it.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JeremyBeadle said:

    "I recall that Labour were odds on in Broxtowe just 2 years ago, but now 12/1, with Tories on 1/50 for example"

    They didn't have Corbin 2 years ago

    Are you suggesting that the Conservative government has been providing the good burghers of Broxtowe with cases of grand cru Chateau Corbin ?

    Better than owls though ....

    http://f1.wine-searcher.net/images/labels/63/62/chateau-grand-corbin-saint-emilion-grand-cru-france-10156362.jpg

    http://www.chateau-corbin.com/uk/home.php
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Also from The Times

    Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.

    The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-tries-to-shrug-off-poll-warning-of-a-landslide-m7h2gl3jw
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    A new OpEd on Wings about the Scottish Tories? :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Are you saying, TUD, that you are not wishful for the downfall of the FN or that you live in France? :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    Ed Balls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also from The Times

    Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.

    The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-tries-to-shrug-off-poll-warning-of-a-landslide-m7h2gl3jw

    I do hope that's not as impressively wrong as their Worst Case Scenario in 2015 which had them on 260 to the Tories' 290 with around 30 each for the Yellows and Oranges.

    Because if it is, we're looking at Conservatives gain Bootle as more than a joke.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.

    According to the panel base and Survation it is 6% of 2015 SNP voters.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also from The Times

    Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.

    The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-tries-to-shrug-off-poll-warning-of-a-landslide-m7h2gl3jw

    I do hope that's not as impressively wrong as their Worst Case Scenario in 2015 which had them on 260 to the Tories' 290 with around 30 each for the Yellows and Oranges.

    Because if it is, we're looking at Conservatives gain Bootle as more than a joke.
    I couldn't resist having a pound on Con take Bootle, but the Lab vote seems firmer in the NW and Merseyside than in much of the rest of the country.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Off to a good start...

    @PolhomeEditor: Paul Nuttall: "We're not at war with Muslims." #today
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    I thought we all lived in the UK?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Paging punters

    More ambitious punters might choose to place a £1 accumulator on Mr Corbyn winning those five seats plus another ten that have been held by Labour for at least 20 years. Were the party to hold on to those 15 seats, in nine of which it is defending majorities ranging from 3,100 to 6,900, the winning bet would in theory return £27.8 million. Whether a bookmaker would accept the wager is, however, uncertain. A Paddy Power spokesman said it would “carefully consider” any request to place such an accumulator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also from The Times

    Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.

    Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.

    The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-tries-to-shrug-off-poll-warning-of-a-landslide-m7h2gl3jw

    I do hope that's not as impressively wrong as their Worst Case Scenario in 2015 which had them on 260 to the Tories' 290 with around 30 each for the Yellows and Oranges.

    Because if it is, we're looking at Conservatives gain Bootle as more than a joke.
    I couldn't resist having a pound on Con take Bootle, but the Lab vote seems firmer in the NW and Merseyside than in much of the rest of the country.
    It's very noble of you Dr to make sure the bookmakers don't lose absolutely everything on the night!

    Unless of course Corbyn does something really cretinous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Are you saying, TUD, that you are not wishful for the downfall of the FN or that you live in France? :wink:
    I wouldn't post compulsively & repeatedly about it, impotence is never a great look.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alistair said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.

    According to the panel base and Survation it is 6% of 2015 SNP voters.
    A lot depends on where former SLAB voters have gone. I cannot see them substantially going to the Tories.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Trying to clear up confusion from previous thread so going to send a quick message to the Scottish Conservatives to see if any of them call themselves Tories. Going to message their Twitter account @ScotTories ... Oh.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    Oh well, case proved.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Theuniondivvie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Are you saying, TUD, that you are not wishful for the downfall of the FN or that you live in France? :wink:
    I wouldn't post compulsively & repeatedly about it, impotence is never a great look.
    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paging punters

    More ambitious punters might choose to place a £1 accumulator on Mr Corbyn winning those five seats plus another ten that have been held by Labour for at least 20 years. Were the party to hold on to those 15 seats, in nine of which it is defending majorities ranging from 3,100 to 6,900, the winning bet would in theory return £27.8 million. Whether a bookmaker would accept the wager is, however, uncertain. A Paddy Power spokesman said it would “carefully consider” any request to place such an accumulator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b

    I thought that accumulators were not permitted on constituency bets, as not independent events.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paging punters

    More ambitious punters might choose to place a £1 accumulator on Mr Corbyn winning those five seats plus another ten that have been held by Labour for at least 20 years. Were the party to hold on to those 15 seats, in nine of which it is defending majorities ranging from 3,100 to 6,900, the winning bet would in theory return £27.8 million. Whether a bookmaker would accept the wager is, however, uncertain. A Paddy Power spokesman said it would “carefully consider” any request to place such an accumulator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b

    The 'theory' ignores that these results are all correlated; there is no way you can compound the odds like that.

    The odds of the Tories winning Sevenoaks are (apparently) 1/200. The odds of an accumulator on Sevenoaks, Tonbridge, and Tunbridge Wells is likely also to be 1/200; it's essentially the same bet.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alistair said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Ask yourself who and where are the apparently substantial number of SNP voters who have transferred their allegiances to the Conservatives. Then bet accordingly on the constituency markets.

    According to the panel base and Survation it is 6% of 2015 SNP voters.
    A lot depends on where former SLAB voters have gone. I cannot see them substantially going to the Tories.
    The Holyrood elections show they have substantially gone to the Tories. After 2015 the Indy supporters had mostly left Labour, leaving just Unionists.

    They are now going to the Cons.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/857841652068757504
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    Black_Rook said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This poll is disappointing.

    I expected to see the STories in the mid-30s and making 14+ gains.

    IIRC from discussion last night, I went down the Tory target seat list and only found 13 SNP seats available in the top 150 targets. The balance are clearly those with truly gargantuan SNP majorities, and/or where Labour or the Lib Dems are the dominant challengers. And that 13 is only achievable if the direct 11% SNP-to-Con swing, which is bound not to be evenly distributed, just so happens to occur inn all the right places, *AND* there's more Unionist tactical voting in favour of Conservative candidates than leftists tactical voting against them, which I imagine still happens to some extent. Certainly, SNP majorities over the Conservatives are mostly so hefty that applying UNS alone only results in about six gains.

    We're only going to see whole chunks of the map turn blue if a meaningful proportion of the pro-independence vote switches from SNP to Con, and/or the Labour vote properly collapses and moves in the same direction. Both propositions, especially the former, are not particularly well supported by the evidence at this juncture.

    Methinks expectations need to be tempered.
    Con Gain Glasgow East.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Are you saying, TUD, that you are not wishful for the downfall of the FN or that you live in France? :wink:
    I wouldn't post compulsively & repeatedly about it, impotence is never a great look.
    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.
    I'm just getting over the white powder..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paging punters

    More ambitious punters might choose to place a £1 accumulator on Mr Corbyn winning those five seats plus another ten that have been held by Labour for at least 20 years. Were the party to hold on to those 15 seats, in nine of which it is defending majorities ranging from 3,100 to 6,900, the winning bet would in theory return £27.8 million. Whether a bookmaker would accept the wager is, however, uncertain. A Paddy Power spokesman said it would “carefully consider” any request to place such an accumulator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b

    I thought that accumulators were not permitted on constituency bets, as not independent events.
    Well Shadsy did an accumulator on Stoke/Copeland.

    I think this is Publicty Shy Paddy Power trying to get some free money on the back of Corbyn's crapness
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am Groot.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857733672090390528

    So was the film any good?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I am Groot.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857733672090390528

    So was the film any good?
    Awesome. Just simply awesome. Even better than the first one.

    You need to sit through ALL the end credits.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Great. I'll see it next week.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.

    PBers requiring the "blue pill" !!!!!!!

    I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Who on here is doing that?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited April 2017
    HaroldO said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    I thought we all lived in the UK?
    The UK is a multinational state, like the former USSR (the clue is in the name), comprising several countries (or part of a country/province in the case of the 6 counties in the north of Ireland).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.

    PBers requiring the "blue pill" !!!!!!!

    I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
    I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paging punters

    More ambitious punters might choose to place a £1 accumulator on Mr Corbyn winning those five seats plus another ten that have been held by Labour for at least 20 years. Were the party to hold on to those 15 seats, in nine of which it is defending majorities ranging from 3,100 to 6,900, the winning bet would in theory return £27.8 million. Whether a bookmaker would accept the wager is, however, uncertain. A Paddy Power spokesman said it would “carefully consider” any request to place such an accumulator.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b

    I thought that accumulators were not permitted on constituency bets, as not independent events.
    Surely not even Paddy's high-publicity marketing team are going to start taking accumulators on the seat markets? They're quite clearly related contingencies - but this is the company who managed to pay out both sides of the US Presidential race last year, so I'd put nothing past them!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.

    PBers requiring the "blue pill" !!!!!!!

    I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
    I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
    I find that hard to believe ....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HaroldO said:

    Scott_P said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Citation required.

    See Nicola Scotslass on previous thread...
    That was funny. As someone who has no party affiliation i do enjoy it when someone believes so passionately about a party they lose rationality, it is a point a laugh moment.
    Yeah.
    I'm quite entertained by the number of folk who devoutly wish the downfall of a political party in a country in which they don't live.
    Are you saying, TUD, that you are not wishful for the downfall of the FN or that you live in France? :wink:
    I wouldn't post compulsively & repeatedly about it, impotence is never a great look.
    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.
    Is that the one Justin124 was on about the other day?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Interesting poll...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    foxinsoxuk said:

    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Surely the cost just gets added to the Brexit Bill?
    I don't see why. We aren't telling them to move out.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ThreeQuidder said:

    We aren't telling them to move out.

    Yes we are. We had a vote. Maybe you remember it...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ask your Doctor for the blue pill.

    PBers requiring the "blue pill" !!!!!!!

    I've never heard such gibberish .... except of course from Labour spokesman on the economy.
    I only take the blue pill to stop myself from rolling out of bed.
    I find that hard to believe ....
    I find that soft to believe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    We aren't telling them to move out.

    Yes we are. We had a vote. Maybe you remember it...
    The EU could change their regs so they could be stationed outside the EU? :p
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    matt said:

    RobD said:

    matt said:

    Further to the past discussions about the EMA, an article in today's Times suggests their long lease does have no break clause and that's all Britain's fault. Negligence claims ahoy.

    Why would that be Britain's fault?
    Because we left the EU and that was an unforseeable event.
    If it was unforeseeable that surely precludes negligence?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Nuttall for Boston?
This discussion has been closed.