Not my expertise, but isn't it normal to assign leases in this situation? This is hardly the first 25 year lease that needs to be terminated early due to unforseen circumstances. I would think the sensible thing is to assign the lease to the UK government. You can't get a blue chipier client than that and no money needs to change hands.
It will be interesting for our negotiators to see what the EU imagines our obligations to be on EU properties and leases on the continent.Additionally, the legal footing of any imagined obligations.
The Germans were saying there was no legal basis for a claim against us last week and that echoes the House of Lords Committee and one of the ratings agencies assessing EU finances.
Im expecting the GDP figures to be good this morning. The Tory head office brief uve just recieved says they will be issuing a soecial briefing note after they have come out. They must know they are stonking..
I hope they are for all our sakes.
But the briefing note could just be for the opposite reason.
Lot of talk of huge majorities on here etc of late. Now I stand second to nobody in my desire to see Corbyn and his dreadful acolytes sent to the dustbin of history, and the Labour Party to come back to sanity for the good of us all, but there's a couple of polls (Survation and latest YouGov) showing less stonking leads ( if very very good still), and the CPS swan is pruning itself to see if the feathers are black or white.
Can't see Corbyn winning or even winning by not losing, but sub 150? Hell of an ask.
It's possible, but it requires a bit more of a collapse in the labour vote than has been seen in the past week, even if it is true Con are piling up votes in lab seats and not just their own safe seats.
Mr. kle4, not gambling for the money? That's an unorthodox approach.
ISTR he said he mostly did it to have greater interest in sport on TV. The feeling of winning (or losing) could be divorced from the actual money, I guess.
but both men today to look a little more grandfatherly, and a little less like they are concealing Semtex in their red box (hahahahahahahahaha, Corbyn with a red box, ROFL, hahahahaha)
Welcome to PB - always good to have a new thoughtful, balanced commentator at a time when politics is a bit quiet.
Serious question: what's your view of Corbyn's Irish and Middle Eastern associations?
Mr. kle4, not gambling for the money? That's an unorthodox approach.
ISTR he said he mostly did it to have greater interest in sport on TV. The feeling of winning (or losing) could be divorced from the actual money, I guess.
How much was he staking? I'd assumed if it's not about winning big then like myself he just bets small amounts for fun, though small amounts for him is thousands.
The truly insane thing is that if you look at the Hanretty analysis of BES data to see how voting distributions are changing... https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/warning-signs-for-labour-50b6cd1501d8 ... he's finding that the Tories were a hair under 10 points up in SNP-held seats back in January - against a national polling score of 39% (up by about 1% on the GE score).
There has to be a point where this distribution doesn't hold, and maybe the sample size was low, but if you overlay that onto their polling boost since, you get ridiculous numbers of Tory seats. No fewer than 19 (nearly comparable with 1983, but in a field of fewer seats)
My personal hesitance on this is that overlaying the national polling boost since then can lead to an error if the Tories had already come up with a big boost in Scotland by January over-and-above the national polling scores
Okay - using the change from the 2015 GE result and the 2016 Scottish constituency results as a weak proxy to measure that, and therefore reducing the Tory bonus in SNP seats gives a slightly less incredible score of 14 Tory seats. Still find it a bit implausible, though.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of .
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
It's worse than that. The Labour party is already short on real top talent: hence their leadership problems. Brown is mostly to blame for this in eliminating any rivals he might have had for the leadership (eeks, was it really ten years ago ...)
If they have a further reduction in seats at this election, then there will be fewer new, young MPs in the party, and they'll be left with more of the old guard who got them into this mess. If an MP requires at least one parliament to get on his or her feet before going for the leadership, then you're looking at the 2025-7 at the earliest before you'll get a sizeable influx of new blood and new ideas at the top of the party.
We'll know more in six weeks, but talent-wise, it seems like Labour might be much worse off than the Conservatives were in 1997.
The Conservatives had no real rival on the Right in 1997 or 2001, an ok level of national membership, and maintained a solid base of 30% of the vote - despite some pretty silly polling well beneath that at the time.
It was tactical voting, dire boundaries and very poor targeting that did for them.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
And who could forget Richard A. "Dick" Devine, the State's Attorney of Cook County, Illinois, United States from 1996 to 2008....
Dick Devine.....snigger.....
The current governor of Idaho Mr Butch Otter has a name to play with. His first wife was called Gay too which is just almost too good to be true.
I went to an otter sanctuary once and was told that European otters eat their fish the opposite way to American otters. One (can't remember which) apparently eats them head first the other tail first.
It wasn't April 1st when I went so I take it as a useless otter fact.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
Mr. Eagles, I'd planned on taking a similar approach following the F1 points market, if it existed, after ALonso's surprising points tally last year.
Mr. rkrkrk, I think my Lib Dem bet on Richmond Park (Betfair Sportsbook at 26) has just been cancelled.
Given I only backed the Conservatives (at 5/4) to even it out, and that stands, I'm less than bloody delighted.
Edited extra bit: I think they've also cancelled a Manchester Withington bet I had on the Lib Dems. I'll try checking to see if I've missed something, but, if I'm right, this is pretty wretched.
I can see a case for voiding the Wokingham bet, but not the others.
Not my expertise, but isn't it normal to assign leases in this situation? This is hardly the first 25 year lease that needs to be terminated early due to unforseen circumstances. I would think the sensible thing is to assign the lease to the UK government. You can't get a blue chipier client than that and no money needs to change hands.
It will be interesting for our negotiators to see what the EU imagines our obligations to be on EU properties and leases on the continent.Additionally, the legal footing of any imagined obligations.
The Germans were saying there was no legal basis for a claim against us last week and that echoes the House of Lords Committee and one of the ratings agencies assessing EU finances.
Truthfully, it's an inconsequential part of a haggle that needs to be gone through. Pay to play, basically. The only thing that matters for the UK at this stage is what arrangement will be in place on 29 march 2019. ie the transition agreement.It could be comprehensive; it could be minimal. We don't know, and it's quite possible we won't know six months ahead of Brexit, which will be a nightmare for planning. The arrangement will be more or less at the whim of the EU side.
The final deal is a prospect for the distant future. There's a complete lack of focus about Brexit on the UK side.
Mr. Eagles, I'd planned on taking a similar approach following the F1 points market, if it existed, after ALonso's surprising points tally last year.
Mr. rkrkrk, I think my Lib Dem bet on Richmond Park (Betfair Sportsbook at 26) has just been cancelled.
Given I only backed the Conservatives (at 5/4) to even it out, and that stands, I'm less than bloody delighted.
Edited extra bit: I think they've also cancelled a Manchester Withington bet I had on the Lib Dems. I'll try checking to see if I've missed something, but, if I'm right, this is pretty wretched.
I can see a case for voiding the Wokingham bet, but not the others.
Mine hasn't (yet) been cancelled.
Might it be that you're searching bets in the past 7 days, and that was on offer just over a week ago now? Or have they refunded you?
The locals should help with the Scottish situation. I'm very wary of betting there because 2015 was so astonishing it's like the whole deck is reset. I'm not sure we will or could map swing on to it. You could find the Tories gaining very unlikely seats - Angus or Argyll etc and missing out in what seems likely - Aberdeenshire or Dumfries. It's fraught and I'm frit.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
And who could forget Richard A. "Dick" Devine, the State's Attorney of Cook County, Illinois, United States from 1996 to 2008....
Dick Devine.....snigger.....
The current governor of Idaho Mr Butch Otter has a name to play with. His first wife was called Gay too which is just almost too good to be true.
I went to an otter sanctuary once and was told that European otters eat their fish the opposite way to American otters. One (can't remember which) apparently eats them head first the other tail first.
It wasn't April 1st when I went so I take it as a useless otter fact.
Otters are the warmest blooded mammals. And an otter cub has an even higher body temperature.
And who could forget Richard A. "Dick" Devine, the State's Attorney of Cook County, Illinois, United States from 1996 to 2008....
Dick Devine.....snigger.....
The current governor of Idaho Mr Butch Otter has a name to play with. His first wife was called Gay too which is just almost too good to be true.
I went to an otter sanctuary once and was told that European otters eat their fish the opposite way to American otters. One (can't remember which) apparently eats them head first the other tail first.
It wasn't April 1st when I went so I take it as a useless otter fact.
Otters are the warmest blooded mammals. And an otter cub has an even higher body temperature.
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Same issue with the greens claiming to be the sti Tory vote for the Isle of Wight, but they were just below labour before. Have to assume some snp MPs potentially under threat will squeak through.
Scottish greens helping out at all, do they typically stand everywhere?
Think the SGs stood in about half of Scottish seats last time, not E. Ren though as it happens.
The SG leadership has made some unilateral noises about standing down in favour of the SNP in certain seats. I'd imagine it might be a relief for smaller parties not to stand so soon in a new GE in what would be at best profile raising exercises in many constituencies.
And who could forget Richard A. "Dick" Devine, the State's Attorney of Cook County, Illinois, United States from 1996 to 2008....
Dick Devine.....snigger.....
The current governor of Idaho Mr Butch Otter has a name to play with. His first wife was called Gay too which is just almost too good to be true.
I went to an otter sanctuary once and was told that European otters eat their fish the opposite way to American otters. One (can't remember which) apparently eats them head first the other tail first.
It wasn't April 1st when I went so I take it as a useless otter fact.
Otters are the warmest blooded mammals. And an otter cub has an even higher body temperature.
No one knows why. It's just a little otter.
Boom tish! That's rather good. Here's an animal joke I like: Q: How do you titillate an ocelot? A: You oscillate its tits alot.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of .
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the futurtute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
It's worse than that. The Labour party is already short on real top talent: hence their leadership problems. Brown is mostly to blame for this in eliminating any rivals he might have had for the leadership (eeks, was it really ten years ago ...)
If they have a further reduction in seats at this election, then there will be fewer new, young MPs in the party, and they'll be left with more of the old guard who got them into this mess. If an MP requires at least one parliament to get on his or her feet before going for the leadership, then you're looking at the 2025-7 at the earliest before you'll get a sizeable influx of new blood and new ideas at the top of the party.
We'll know more in six weeks, but talent-wise, it seems like Labour might be much worse off than the Conservatives were in 1997.
The Conservatives had no real rival on the Right in 1997 or 2001, an ok level of national membership, and maintained a solid base of 30% of the vote - despite some pretty silly polling well beneath that at the time.
It was tactical voting, dire boundaries and very poor targeting that did for them.
Question for the morning - has devolution killed the Labour Party?
I think devolution was a symptom of a wider malaise that is killing the Labour party - taking its core vote for granted. The Jocks went. The Welsh seem to be doing the same. And now the WWC. When Islington luvvies go all that is left will be the Trots and Corbyn's life mission of converting Labour into the SWP will be achieved.
Mr. Eagles, I'd planned on taking a similar approach following the F1 points market, if it existed, after ALonso's surprising points tally last year.
Mr. rkrkrk, I think my Lib Dem bet on Richmond Park (Betfair Sportsbook at 26) has just been cancelled.
Given I only backed the Conservatives (at 5/4) to even it out, and that stands, I'm less than bloody delighted.
Edited extra bit: I think they've also cancelled a Manchester Withington bet I had on the Lib Dems. I'll try checking to see if I've missed something, but, if I'm right, this is pretty wretched.
I can see a case for voiding the Wokingham bet, but not the others.
Withington should still be there.
20/04/2017 Single To Win Liberal Democrat @ 11/2 Manchester Withington UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £3.96 Pending
The following have been re-odded (Each giving a 1 penny return in 45 days)
20/04/2017 Single To Win Conservative @ 1/100 South Holland & The Deepings UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £1.04 Pending 20/04/2017 Single To Win Conservative @ 1/100 Wokingham UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £1.04 Pending
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Same issue with the greens claiming to be the sti Tory vote for the Isle of Wight, but they were just below labour before. Have to assume some snp MPs potentially under threat will squeak through.
Scottish greens helping out at all, do they typically stand everywhere?
Think the SGs stood in about half of Scottish seats last time, not E. Ren though as it happens.
The SG leadership has made some unilateral noises about standing down in favour of the SNP in certain seats. I'd imagine it might be a relief for smaller parties not to stand so soon in a new GE in what would be at best profile raising exercises in many constituencies.
The winds of change are blowing in Scotland. If the SNP's radical collapse combined with the Scottish Conservative's explosive growth continue at trend we could see something very special this June.
Who could blame the BBC for concentrating on the scintillating and multifaceted campaign being presented by the Tories/Conservatives/whateverthefecktheycallthemselves, i.e. 'strong and stable leadership' and minute variations thereof.
As ever, viewers in Scotland have their own 'stop a divisive second referendum' programmes.
Not my expertise, but isn't it normal to assign leases in this situation? This is hardly the first 25 year lease that needs to be terminated early due to unforseen circumstances. I would think the sensible thing is to assign the lease to the UK government. You can't get a blue chipier client than that and no money needs to change hands.
I agree with you entirely on your first point, they should have forseen this. They only had to look at the Number of times the UK lost votes in both the Council & the Parliament to realise that the UK was loosing votes at over double the next EU nation, see the number of opt-outs the UK got as we gave up on reforming the system in anything remotely like our own image as a fools errand and that something would have to give. And even if this was a bolt out of the Blue you still plan for PESTLE Risk.
However on your second point. Why should the UK accept the costs of some Gold Plated office in Canary Wharf? The profligacy of the EU is their concern now. I have to say though that swanky offices in Canary Wharf is quite frankly another superlative example of EU waste at UK taxpayers expense. If this is part of the cash Remain said we "Got back" along with the Monet Professors, "Sustainable" Theater productions and Giant Bronze Dog Turds the EU funded in the UK (as they believed that using taxpayers money to pay Metropolitan "Opinion former's" would cement Pan-European solidarity) then the £350mn a week wasn't that far off. I agree with others that this cost should be firmly and impolitely refused.
Fridays are awfully slow days on PB. And in the office too. Bit of a ghost-town as people work from home. I note that Corbyn made some noises about new bank holidays. In the USA they have many fewer public holidays but they do have '9/80s'. Nine days off every 80 days - which actually means every second Friday off. And therefore two long weekends a month. Is the 9/80 system not actually quite a good idea? Maybe we should reduce bank holidays and have two long weekends a month every month.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
Lee Bum Suk, the South Korean foreign minister.
What could beat Cardinal Sin of Manila.
General Panic of Yugoslavia.
I briefly worked with Dr De'ath, and a Surgeon named Mr Payne.
Edinburgh South to hold, East Renfrewshire (SNP majority 3,718) and East Lothian (SNP majority 6,083).
They've no chance in Renfrewshire, Murphy has gone and what personal vote and leader bonus (how did that work out Jim?) He had with him. And they are polling less and the Tories hold the nearest equivalent Holyrood seat. It's cute they have picked a couple of targets. Cute, but tragic.
The Bettertogether maestro Blair McDougall is the SLab candidate and the SCons are being pretty bullish about their chances, so not much guidance for the Unionist tactical voter. It'll be entertaining seeing each of them claim to be the candidate of the Union - I daresay even the SLDs might get in on the act.
Same in my seat - Stirling - SCON (3rd 2015) - prob best chance 3/1 on Betfair.
And we really should not leave the subject without saying hello to former New Hampshire Congressman Richard "Dick" Swett.....
My 3 favourites are: Mustapha Kunt - Turkish military attache in Moscow during WW2 Magnus Organ - Finnish politician Fanny Pong - secretary of Shell Hong Kong's finance director about 15 years ago
Mustapha Kunt
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
Lee Bum Suk, the South Korean foreign minister.
What could beat Cardinal Sin of Manila.
General Panic of Yugoslavia.
I briefly worked with Dr De'ath, and a Surgeon named Mr Payne.
Sir Norfolk, I shall check this, thanks for the suggestion.
Ahem, you're correct
Huzzah!
Phew!
I shall certainly join you in complaining if they do try to welsh on this. It was a poorly priced market, but not an obvious error in the way other fat-finger mis-pricings on the constituency bets were.
Labour figures are planning for a worst-case scenario in which they are left with only about 110 MPs in the Commons on June 9, according to party sources.
Jeremy Corbyn’s party has commissioned a number of private polls and analyses, the most pessimistic of which hands the Conservatives a sweeping majority of about 200 and shows Labour losing more than 115 of its 229 constituencies, insiders said.
The scenario is considered the floor for Labour’s performance on polling day, but party sources have stressed they believe that Labour will “comfortably win” 30-50 more seats than that base and could do better still.
It would be beyond catastrophic to lose more seats than they retain.
Yes. Personally I think anything less than 150 would be catastrophic, anything between that and 190 would merely be very bad.
The key for the future will be working out what might constitute an ELE for Labour. South of 120 with a decimation of their talent Base like Cooper etc perhaps? The Tories were close to disaster 97-01, and I often wonder if Labour hadn't messed up foot and mouth and taken another 20-30 shire seats if that would have been it for the blues..
That the Tories had mid 100 in 1997 I think will bing hope to recovery chances should labour fall that far. Start getting close to 100 or god forbid below it, which no polling suggests right now, and they would literally be left with inner cities and a handful in Wales, and psychologically would be brutal.
It's worse than that. The Labour party is already short on real top talent: hence their leadership problems. Brown is mostly to blame for this in eliminating any rivals he might have had for the leadership (eeks, was it really ten years ago ...)
If they have a further reduction in seats at this election, then there will be fewer new, young MPs in the party, and they'll be left with more of the old guard who got them into this mess. If an MP requires at least one parliament to get on his or her feet before going for the leadership, then you're looking at the 2025-7 at the earliest before you'll get a sizeable influx of new blood and new ideas at the top of the party.
We'll know more in six weeks, but talent-wise, it seems like Labour might be much worse off than the Conservatives were in 1997.
Would that be the Gordon Brown who knee-capped his rivals by giving them jobs in his Cabinets? both Milibands, Straw, Purnell, Hutton, Harman, Johnson, Burnham -- they were all there. You have fallen for Blairite propaganda.
"My mother would have an aneurysm if she knew my potential loss on the Tory seat spreads was close to £16,000"
Is it actually though? I mean you are more likely to get killed by lightning tomorrow than the Tories get zero seats, for example.
I have lost ACTUAL £16k on several occasions, and it doesn't bother my mother, if only because it's in proportion with my bankroll, risk profile & wins.
I daresay my mother has lost £16k on the stockmarket, but so would anyone with £100k worth of shares at various points in the recent past, it's just a thing. Nothing wrong with gambling losses as long as they are part of a larger trend of wins .
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
Might it be that you're searching bets in the past 7 days, and that was on offer just over a week ago now? Or have they refunded you?
Yes - the Betfair Sports website is rather confusing because you click on 'Open Bets' expecting to get, well, your open bets, but by default you only get the open bets placed in the last seven days. You need to extend the date range as the learned Sir Norfolk points out.
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
Sir Norfolk, indeed. I can see the case (alas) for cancelling Wokingham bets because the odds were clearly mathematically nonsensical, but not the others.
Mr. Nabavi, yeah, that's the error I made. Given the Wokingham bet, I assumed the worst.
Q1 2016 0.2% pre brexit, Q1 2017 0.3% post brexit! So no slowing down because of brexit. Why dont people do their research first.!
Need to look at the sectors more closely. The dominant Services sector has been hit by the fall in Sterling. Sterling fell because of Brexit so to say that the economy is not slowing down due to Brexit is quite frankly wrong and disingenuous.
Prospect of hard Brexit hitting growth figures, looks like the crowing on here was too early.
Its a global slowdown... look at the States revising GDP growth down.
Given the housing crisis it’s alarming to see construction falling.
I suppose it’s because we’re sending all the Poles home or something
I imagine the construction slowdown will be mainly commercial. Who wants to attend hundreds of millions on a new tower block when you don't know what Brexit is likely to look like.
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
What's the betting that after all the hullabaloo about GDP being estimated at 0.1% below forecast, in six months it finishes up getting revised to 0.5%, 0.1% above forecast?
More to the point the way these GDP days have turned into a national event is fairly ridiculous...
Q1 2016 0.2% pre brexit, Q1 2017 0.3% post brexit! So no slowing down because of brexit. Why dont people do their research first.!
Need to look at the sectors more closely. The dominant Services sector has been hit by the fall in Sterling. Sterling fell because of Brexit so to say that the economy is not slowing down due to Brexit is quite frankly wrong and disingenuous.
A fall in the rate of sterling doesn't equate with a slowing economy. it does with the value of the economy and therefore why the drop in services per value but not per amount and as its mostly internal still helps the overall economy to expand. Looking at all previous Q1 its just following the same pattern. Growth is still growth as we were supposedly to be in a recession because of brexit by now.
"My mother would have an aneurysm if she knew my potential loss on the Tory seat spreads was close to £16,000"
Is it actually though? I mean you are more likely to get killed by lightning tomorrow than the Tories get zero seats, for example.
I have lost ACTUAL £16k on several occasions, and it doesn't bother my mother, if only because it's in proportion with my bankroll, risk profile & wins.
I daresay my mother has lost £16k on the stockmarket, but so would anyone with £100k worth of shares at various points in the recent past, it's just a thing. Nothing wrong with gambling losses as long as they are part of a larger trend of wins .
More chance of you making a comeback than the Tories losing all their seats.
What's the betting that after all the hullabaloo about GDP being estimated at 0.1% below forecast in six months it finishes up getting revised to 0.5%, 0.1% above forecast?
More to the point the way these GDP days have turned into a national event is fairly ridiculous...
I remember when it used to be 'balance of payments day' with news of exports & imports dominating the headlines and a bad set could help swing a General Election (1970)
Comments
The Germans were saying there was no legal basis for a claim against us last week and that echoes the House of Lords Committee and one of the ratings agencies assessing EU finances.
They only have to lose 5 seats.
(or losing) could be divorced from the actual money, I guess.
Still find it a bit implausible, though.
It was tactical voting, dire boundaries and very poor targeting that did for them.
I was reading about the Moscow cocktail circuit. Apparently staff at the other embassies would diplomatically refer to him as Mr Cant but were corrected every time by the gentleman himself, "No, I'm a Kunt. Kunt"
It wasn't April 1st when I went so I take it as a useless otter fact.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8294216/ns/world_news-asia_pacific/t/philippines-cardinal-sin-dies/
Mr. rkrkrk, I think my Lib Dem bet on Richmond Park (Betfair Sportsbook at 26) has just been cancelled.
Given I only backed the Conservatives (at 5/4) to even it out, and that stands, I'm less than bloody delighted.
Edited extra bit: I think they've also cancelled a Manchester Withington bet I had on the Lib Dems. I'll try checking to see if I've missed something, but, if I'm right, this is pretty wretched.
I can see a case for voiding the Wokingham bet, but not the others.
The final deal is a prospect for the distant future. There's a complete lack of focus about Brexit on the UK side.
Might it be that you're searching bets in the past 7 days, and that was on offer just over a week ago now? Or have they refunded you?
Ahem, you're correct
Huzzah!
No one knows why. It's just a little otter.
Why do the French eat a single egg for breakfast? Because one egg is un oeuf.
The SG leadership has made some unilateral noises about standing down in favour of the SNP in certain seats. I'd imagine it might be a relief for smaller parties not to stand so soon in a new GE in what would be at best profile raising exercises in many constituencies.
Here's an animal joke I like:
Q: How do you titillate an ocelot?
A: You oscillate its tits alot.
20/04/2017 Single To Win
Liberal Democrat @ 11/2
Manchester Withington
UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £3.96 Pending
The following have been re-odded (Each giving a 1 penny return in 45 days)
20/04/2017 Single To Win
Conservative @ 1/100
South Holland & The Deepings
UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £1.04 Pending
20/04/2017 Single To Win
Conservative @ 1/100
Wokingham
UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £1.04 Pending
As ever, viewers in Scotland have their own 'stop a divisive second referendum' programmes.
Be prepared for (many) repeats in both cases.
However on your second point. Why should the UK accept the costs of some Gold Plated office in Canary Wharf? The profligacy of the EU is their concern now. I have to say though that swanky offices in Canary Wharf is quite frankly another superlative example of EU waste at UK taxpayers expense. If this is part of the cash Remain said we "Got back" along with the Monet Professors, "Sustainable" Theater productions and Giant Bronze Dog Turds the EU funded in the UK (as they believed that using taxpayers money to pay Metropolitan "Opinion former's" would cement Pan-European solidarity) then the £350mn a week wasn't that far off. I agree with others that this cost should be firmly and impolitely refused.
I note that Corbyn made some noises about new bank holidays.
In the USA they have many fewer public holidays but they do have '9/80s'. Nine days off every 80 days - which actually means every second Friday off. And therefore two long weekends a month.
Is the 9/80 system not actually quite a good idea? Maybe we should reduce bank holidays and have two long weekends a month every month.
Services, production, construction and agriculture grew by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively in Quarter 1 2017. So fairly balanced.
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/857873067581820928
I shall certainly join you in complaining if they do try to welsh on this. It was a poorly priced market, but not an obvious error in the way other fat-finger mis-pricings on the constituency bets were.
Worried yet?
Is it actually though? I mean you are more likely to get killed by lightning tomorrow than the Tories get zero seats, for example.
I have lost ACTUAL £16k on several occasions, and it doesn't bother my mother, if only because it's in proportion with my bankroll, risk profile & wins.
I daresay my mother has lost £16k on the stockmarket, but so would anyone with £100k worth of shares at various points in the recent past, it's just a thing. Nothing wrong with gambling losses as long as they are part of a larger trend of wins
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/857877078565433344
Consequently, Scottish Labour will be centre its campaign on just three constituencies:
* Edinburgh South, where in 2015 Ian Murray was the only Labour survivor against the Nationalist landslide which saw the party ship 40 of its 41 Westminster seats
* East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy’s old seat, where the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald has a majority of 3,718 and where the Labour candidate this week was announced as Blair MacDougall, the former Better Together chief, and
* East Lothian, where Nationalist MP George Kerevan has a majority of 6,083 over Labour.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15252039.Labour_targeting_major_resources_at_just_three_seats_in_Scotland__party_sources_suggest/
No, that comes later.
Actually it probably is Tump economics and the threat of protectionism that is doing it.
So no slowing down because of brexit. Why dont people do their research first.!
I suppose it’s because we’re sending all the Poles home or something
Last year Easter was in March (thus Q1) whereas this year it is in April. AFAIK "seasonal adjustments" won't take this into account,
https://twitter.com/farrochie/status/857879244785025024
If its bad news its 'Hard Brexit'
Sir Norfolk, indeed. I can see the case (alas) for cancelling Wokingham bets because the odds were clearly mathematically nonsensical, but not the others.
Mr. Nabavi, yeah, that's the error I made. Given the Wokingham bet, I assumed the worst.
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/857882439611535360
What's the betting that after all the hullabaloo about GDP being estimated at 0.1% below forecast, in six months it finishes up getting revised to 0.5%, 0.1% above forecast?
More to the point the way these GDP days have turned into a national event is fairly ridiculous...