Meh. I vaguely remember him, though I can't recall much. Doubt if many voters will know him at all.
You must remember him during the 2005 GE night, when he thought he had lost and that it would cheer up Blair, then he ended winning the seat.
Also wasn't he involved in a punch up with a fellow Labour MP?
I think Nick was perhaps engaging in some mild negative spinning. Even I remember the guy - member of the awkward squad; appeared on HIGNFY; civil libertarian. I'd certainly recognise him over half of Labour's current front bench.
So what happens if the voters reject the Brexit deal that's been negotiated? Crash, bang, wallop? Or is there a cunning Plan B?
God alone knows. Doubtless some sort of plan will be revealed in The Longest Suicide Note In History, Vol 2: Seven Million Votes For Socialism. But one rather suspects they're just making it up as they go along now. With more than a hint of desperation.
A candidate for this year's Portillo/Balls Moment could be Angus Robertson losing his Moray seat to the Tories. SNP majority was only 2,875 last year at the Holyrood election. (Boundaries very similar to the Westminster constituency). The district was also the most pro-Brexit in Scotland with Remain winning by just 122 votes.
I'd like to see poisoned dwarf and music criminal Wishart get his comeuppance in Perth.
John Swinney (Who is a fair bit more respected locally the Wishart) held the smaller Holyrood equivalent by roughly 3500. Considering that the 2 other wards that make up the Westminster seat would probably of added another 1000 or so to the margin it is a bit of an ask unfortunately. It is not as if there is much of a Lab or Libdem vote to squeeze (about 12% in total last year). There might be more chance of Tasmina losing in Perthshire South considering that although the Tories were a bit further behind in 2016 in the 2 Holyrood seats there is a far larger Labour and Libdem vote share to squeeze.
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
I would say that Corbyn deserves everything he's got coming, except that I don't think his tendency are bothered about winning elections - except for internal Labour ones.
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
I would say that Corbyn deserves everything he's got coming, except that I don't think his tendency are bothered about winning elections - except for internal Labour ones.
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
even if they lose badly they have already started prepping excuses "the policies are popular its just jeremy thats not" I expect labour to lose and move left
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
I would say that Corbyn deserves everything he's got coming, except that I don't think his tendency are bothered about winning elections - except for internal Labour ones.
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
That is certainly true but it could help the LDs in a few seats
A guide to GE2017 tactical voting!
Starting point: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast Con+Ukip = 55% of all votes cast in England (and that, of course, is pre-Corbyn)
The Left: flops about all over the place. Can LDs work with Labour, can anyone work with the SNP, does anyone care who the Greens work with? A few progressives have echo chamber conversations on Twitter, and pass around homemade spreadsheets in an effort to get themselves organised.
The Right: Ukip shrivels. Everyone votes for the Tories.
I think one side may have a head start in this particular game.
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
I would say that Corbyn deserves everything he's got coming, except that I don't think his tendency are bothered about winning elections - except for internal Labour ones.
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
Betfair Sportsbook have priced up a number of constituencies including, interestingly, Birmingham Edgbaston where both the Tories and Labour are on offer at Evens. The Tories appear well placed with Baxter showing them as heading for a clear win and this appears all the more likely as a result of the popular incumbent Labour MP Gisela Stuart having decided not to offer herself for re-election. I'm on but DYOR!
Corbyn trails May over who would be the best PM in every age demographic & in all parts of the country @YouGov poll for @thetimes finds
Even the 18-24s? That is catastrophic for Corbyn in a straight choice between him and May.
Oh yes, and it wouldn't be the first time. Ask them about Labour and the party retains a lead. Ask them the best PM question, and things get more interesting.
Just a shame for Jez that the second question is the best guide for how people will actually vote.
I would say that Corbyn deserves everything he's got coming, except that I don't think his tendency are bothered about winning elections - except for internal Labour ones.
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
even if they lose badly they have already started prepping excuses "the policies are popular its just jeremy thats not" I expect labour to lose and move left
I'm not convinced that they will blame Jeremy Corbyn. Apart from anything else, they need him to stay in office for so long as it takes to gain permanent control of the party machinery.
The culprits for the defeat will be identified as follows:
1. Disloyal MPs, especially Evil Blairites. 2. The MSM. 3. The voters, for being hoodwinked by Tory media lies (voting Labour was in their interest but they were convinced to vote against said interest: the false consciousness excuse.)
But yes, if the Far Left can stay in control then they will doubtless bend the party to their own agenda, wait and hope for Brexit to go horribly wrong. Then see if they can find a sufficiently large audience for 80% tax on incomes over £50,000, a £12p/h minimum wage, completely open borders, the nationalisation of housing and war pensions for IRA veterans. Which will be an interesting challenge for them.
Betfair Sportsbook have priced up a number of constituencies including, interestingly, Birmingham Edgbaston where both the Tories and Labour are on offer at Evens. The Tories appear well placed with Baxter showing them as heading for a clear win and this appears all the more likely as a result of the popular incumbent Labour MP Gisela Stuart having decided not to offer herself for re-election. I'm on but DYOR!
Sounds like a good spot to me. Needs a swing of only just over 3%.
Betfair Sportsbook have priced up a number of constituencies including, interestingly, Birmingham Edgbaston where both the Tories and Labour are on offer at Evens. The Tories appear well placed with Baxter showing them as heading for a clear win and this appears all the more likely as a result of the popular incumbent Labour MP Gisela Stuart having decided not to offer herself for re-election. I'm on but DYOR!
Sounds like a good spot to me. Needs a swing of only just over 3%.
Paddy Power offer odds of 7/2 for Q3 2017 being Corbyn's departure date as Labour leader. This sounds like a good bet to me assuming he doesn't sling his hook immediately after losing the GE on 8 June, but instead agrees to continue until his successor is elected. DYOR.
A few years ago, in Croydon, I was walking along the pavement and saw, in the distance, an old(ish) grey-haired jowly man, coming towards me. I thought "Oh, that looks like Bob Marshall-Andrews". Then, as we got closer to each other and passed each other, I looked up again and realised "Oh, it *is* Bob Marshall-Andrews". I didn't say "Oh, you're Bob Marshall-Andrews" because I thought he probably already knew who he was. I think it was when he was still an MP. I never found out why he was in Croydon.
It appears a number of celebs on twitter are most unhappy at Tim farron.
Mainly David Walliams who is a Labour supporter, Farron was just being consistent with his views as an evangelical Christian
The way the Tories have all been on this today conveniently forgetting that not only did Farron support equal marriage but that 124 Tories did not has been hysterical. Anyone would think they were frit at the number of new members - including me - the LDs have gained in the last 2 days.
Voting LD wherever possible is the only way to save this country from right wing loonies.
This is looking increasingly like 1983 but then there was:
1. Falklands
2. SDP
My belief is that Corbyn and co. will not leave. A leadership election has to be forced. If members still behave like they did before then a new party has to be formed.
Britain has long misread the German attitude to Brexit, with many Tories wrongly assuming that Angela Merkel’s government will be driven by economic self-interest to ensure Britain gets a good deal.
The reality is that the German view is strikingly hardline and Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in June will not change that.
How many times have we been told by the SNP that its in the UKs economic interests to ensure Scotland gets a good deal if it were to vote for Independence? I said it years ago on PB, the SNPs stance on EU membership as opposed to being part of the UK rank hypocrisy when it comes to proper independence.
OK you maggots, time to earn your crusts. The following academics (and others) made predictions for the 2015 General Election and/or the 2016 EU Referendum:
Alan Renwick (Constitution Unit) Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan (UEA/LSE/Durham, collectively electionforecast.co.uk), Christopher Prosser (Oxford) Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth) Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whitely (Texas/Essex), Hypermind? Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)? Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus), Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams (Missouri), Matt Qvortrup (CTPSR, Coventry), Matt Singh (Number Cruncher Politics), Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook), Matthew Shadwick (Ladbrokes) May2015.com Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger (Iowa/Montreal/McGill), Pete Burnap, Rachel Gibson, Luke Sloan, Rosalynd Southern and Matthew Williams (Cardiff/Manchester), Predictit, Predictwise? Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien (Manchester/Soton/SimonFraser/Texas, collectively the Polling Observatory) Stephen Fisher (Oxford)
Without trawling thru everybody's f*****g twitter feed, I thought of asking you guys. Which of the above are offering predictions for 2017? I know Baxter and PredictIt are, but I don't know about the rest.
If you can answer this question I will say nice things about you for 24 hrs.
Any idea what George Galloway is up to now....I imagine Gorton is less fertile ground for him now....a return to Bradford or Bethnall Green?
According to the latest edition of Private Eye, he has resorted to his erstwhile practice of threatening minor innocent ordinary with libel writs because of innocuous things they have tweeted.
Morning. I guess I chose the wrong week to have a mad one at work. 48%, bloody hell. I wonder what SPIN's price on Tory seats is going to be? A buy at less than about 375 right now I'd guess, that's the hundred majority level. There's still an awful lot of campaign to go, but right now I'd say it's more likely that Corbyn rather than May messes it up.
Betfair Sportsbook have priced up a number of constituencies including, interestingly, Birmingham Edgbaston where both the Tories and Labour are on offer at Evens. The Tories appear well placed with Baxter showing them as heading for a clear win and this appears all the more likely as a result of the popular incumbent Labour MP Gisela Stuart having decided not to offer herself for re-election. I'm on but DYOR!
That's a good spot, thanks Peter. Should probably be 2/5 Tories.
Markets like this are where the money was made last time out. Labour incumbents standing down is a good starting point.
It really does look like the Brexit negotiations will come down to May standing on the cliff edge and daring the EU to push her over. So far every leader who's tried that has ultimately backed down. Could May be the first to win at this game?
Do you want to give me that £1000 now? Might save you a bit, if the £ tanks, as you surely expect, during the now-inevitable-Brexit in 2019
If the pound tanks... Surely better to wait and pay later in devalued pounds?
Newsnight saying pensions triple lock likely to go in Con manifesto.
I don't think May should risk it. Whatever the rights and wrongs it opens up a major flank for attack:
"You promised it till 2020. Now you're ditching it. Betraying pensioners. Lab will keep it etc etc".
I think May has to stick with it for this Parliament.
She should say: "We had already promised it to 2020, and it's right we now extend that to end of next Parliament".
It's one of the few detailed things large numbers of people understand. As such it's one of the few things that could lead to a change of momentum.
A bit like self-employed NICs - it looked innocuous but it blew up.
Pensioners are not voting for a relic of the 1970s when they have a memory of that era. Now should be the opportunity to take a good look at the "too difficult to do" list when there's no real danger of a change of government.
I'd get rid of as many spending commitments and ring-fences as possible in the manifesto - the government will need flexibility when the inevitable recession arrives. That we're still borrowing tens of billions a decade after the last recession is a shocking indictment of the mess of the public finances, despite the best efforts of Messrs Osborne and Hammond over the past seven years.
"Protecting the NHS budget" is probably okay, as spending in that department is never going to fall anyway - due to demographic effects and inflation.
This is looking increasingly like 1983 but then there was:
1. Falklands
2. SDP
My belief is that Corbyn and co. will not leave. A leadership election has to be forced. If members still behave like they did before then a new party has to be formed.
The new party could win in 2027.
Yep - everything is just coming forward by three years. The wealthy old men and former public schoolboys in the Labour leadership will either all be gone by the end of the year or there'll be a new opposition party facing May's mediocrities across the Commons floor.
Boy, they need some big swings to win even a few back, yeesh.
One would imagine that the Liberal Democrats would, broadly speaking, be concentrating their efforts on their existing seats plus the top 16 in that target list, down to NE Fife, where they had a very good showing in the Holyrood elections IIRC. Cambridge, the three West London seats and the two near Bristol look especially promising. Below that, the incumbent majorities are almost all 5,000+ and (the odd exception like Cheltenham and perhaps Cardiff Central apart) things get progressively less promising for them.
If they could hold everything they already have and win all the top 16 targets then that would get them up to 25 in total, but of course local circumstances may weigh against that. Some of their defences, notably Southport and North Norfolk, look vulnerable, whilst somewhere like Torbay (target no.10) doesn't seem like especially fertile ground given that the area voted nearly 2:1 to Leave, and that the available pool of also-ran votes favours the defending party (more for third placed Ukip last time than for Labour and Greens put together.)
In all, the Lib Dems' chances where they can challenge a slender majority, in a friendly Remain-leaning area, where the local organisation is still strong, and ideally with a well-known ex-MP (Vince Cable in Twickenham immediately springs to mind) ought to be strong, but the supply of such constituencies is limited. This, plus the fact that I see no real likelihood of them getting anywhere close to their 2010 vote share nationwide, is why I'm not convinced by the notion of an immediate and dramatic rebound in the yellows' Parliamentary fortunes.
In order to get all the way back to where Clegg led them in 2010 the Lib Dems would, crudely speaking, have to hold their current seats and win everything down to target no.48, Watford, where they are in third place and over 14,000 votes behind the Conservatives. Such a dramatic reversal in fortunes would also entail the fall of seats such as Gordon - toppling Alex Salmond in the process - and Bosworth, which has been Tory since 1970 and hasn't been held by a Liberal since the War. Each one of those they can't swing would mean they'd have to capture something even further down the list to compensate. This is not realistic for a party currently polling not quite half the share of the popular vote that they managed pre-Coalition.
IMHO if the Lib Dems can get their total number of MPs anywhere above 20 then that would count as a very strong performance for them.
A candidate for this year's Portillo/Balls Moment could be Angus Robertson losing his Moray seat to the Tories. SNP majority was only 2,875 last year at the Holyrood election. (Boundaries very similar to the Westminster constituency). The district was also the most pro-Brexit in Scotland with Remain winning by just 122 votes.
LOL, the Tories are upset that the SNP will not be their little helpers like Labour. Cowards unable to see out the full term, seek advantage and shaft their little Labour helpers yet again.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-wtkosdems
Even I remember the guy - member of the awkward squad; appeared on HIGNFY; civil libertarian. I'd certainly recognise him over half of Labour's current front bench.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_yf4RL133fBKscvSbID4eRKwztzY9KSI_2BMaI1bU8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=0
There might be more chance of Tasmina losing in Perthshire South considering that although the Tories were a bit further behind in 2016 in the 2 Holyrood seats there is a far larger Labour and Libdem vote share to squeeze.
Labour to win Dagenham and Rainham 1/2
The party itself certainly deserves everything it's got coming, for having got themselves into this mess in the first place.
https://twitter.com/MartinHoscik/status/854828691167354880
http://labourlist.org/2017/04/this-election-isnt-a-foregone-conclusion-well-win-it-for-everybody-corbyn/
Starting point: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast
Con+Ukip = 55% of all votes cast in England (and that, of course, is pre-Corbyn)
The Left: flops about all over the place. Can LDs work with Labour, can anyone work with the SNP, does anyone care who the Greens work with? A few progressives have echo chamber conversations on Twitter, and pass around homemade spreadsheets in an effort to get themselves organised.
The Right: Ukip shrivels. Everyone votes for the Tories.
I think one side may have a head start in this particular game.
I hear that a shelf is being kept empty to receive The Longest Suicide Note In History, Vol.2: Seven Million Votes For Socialism.
Betfair Sportsbook have priced up a number of constituencies including, interestingly, Birmingham Edgbaston where both the Tories and Labour are on offer at Evens.
The Tories appear well placed with Baxter showing them as heading for a clear win and this appears all the more likely as a result of the popular incumbent Labour MP Gisela Stuart having decided not to offer herself for re-election.
I'm on but DYOR!
The culprits for the defeat will be identified as follows:
1. Disloyal MPs, especially Evil Blairites.
2. The MSM.
3. The voters, for being hoodwinked by Tory media lies (voting Labour was in their interest but they were convinced to vote against said interest: the false consciousness excuse.)
But yes, if the Far Left can stay in control then they will doubtless bend the party to their own agenda, wait and hope for Brexit to go horribly wrong. Then see if they can find a sufficiently large audience for 80% tax on incomes over £50,000, a £12p/h minimum wage, completely open borders, the nationalisation of housing and war pensions for IRA veterans. Which will be an interesting challenge for them.
This sounds like a good bet to me assuming he doesn't sling his hook immediately after losing the GE on 8 June, but instead agrees to continue until his successor is elected.
DYOR.
1. Falklands
2. SDP
My belief is that Corbyn and co. will not leave. A leadership election has to be forced. If members still behave like they did before then a new party has to be formed.
The new party could win in 2027.
Alan Renwick (Constitution Unit)
Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan (UEA/LSE/Durham, collectively electionforecast.co.uk),
Christopher Prosser (Oxford)
Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth)
Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whitely (Texas/Essex),
Hypermind?
Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)?
Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus),
Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams (Missouri),
Matt Qvortrup (CTPSR, Coventry),
Matt Singh (Number Cruncher Politics),
Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook),
Matthew Shadwick (Ladbrokes)
May2015.com
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger (Iowa/Montreal/McGill),
Pete Burnap, Rachel Gibson, Luke Sloan, Rosalynd Southern and Matthew Williams (Cardiff/Manchester),
Predictit,
Predictwise?
Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien (Manchester/Soton/SimonFraser/Texas, collectively the Polling Observatory)
Stephen Fisher (Oxford)
Without trawling thru everybody's f*****g twitter feed, I thought of asking you guys. Which of the above are offering predictions for 2017? I know Baxter and PredictIt are, but I don't know about the rest.
If you can answer this question I will say nice things about you for 24 hrs.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
I wonder what SPIN's price on Tory seats is going to be? A buy at less than about 375 right now I'd guess, that's the hundred majority level. There's still an awful lot of campaign to go, but right now I'd say it's more likely that Corbyn rather than May messes it up.
J'accuse; Corbyn McDonnell Johnson Gove Stuart and May.
Markets like this are where the money was made last time out. Labour incumbents standing down is a good starting point.
I don't think May should risk it. Whatever the rights and wrongs it opens up a major flank for attack:
"You promised it till 2020. Now you're ditching it. Betraying pensioners. Lab will keep it etc etc".
I think May has to stick with it for this Parliament.
She should say: "We had already promised it to 2020, and it's right we now extend that to end of next Parliament".
It's one of the few detailed things large numbers of people understand. As such it's one of the few things that could lead to a change of momentum.
A bit like self-employed NICs - it looked innocuous but it blew up.
I'd get rid of as many spending commitments and ring-fences as possible in the manifesto - the government will need flexibility when the inevitable recession arrives. That we're still borrowing tens of billions a decade after the last recession is a shocking indictment of the mess of the public finances, despite the best efforts of Messrs Osborne and Hammond over the past seven years.
"Protecting the NHS budget" is probably okay, as spending in that department is never going to fall anyway - due to demographic effects and inflation.
New thread
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
If they could hold everything they already have and win all the top 16 targets then that would get them up to 25 in total, but of course local circumstances may weigh against that. Some of their defences, notably Southport and North Norfolk, look vulnerable, whilst somewhere like Torbay (target no.10) doesn't seem like especially fertile ground given that the area voted nearly 2:1 to Leave, and that the available pool of also-ran votes favours the defending party (more for third placed Ukip last time than for Labour and Greens put together.)
In all, the Lib Dems' chances where they can challenge a slender majority, in a friendly Remain-leaning area, where the local organisation is still strong, and ideally with a well-known ex-MP (Vince Cable in Twickenham immediately springs to mind) ought to be strong, but the supply of such constituencies is limited. This, plus the fact that I see no real likelihood of them getting anywhere close to their 2010 vote share nationwide, is why I'm not convinced by the notion of an immediate and dramatic rebound in the yellows' Parliamentary fortunes.
In order to get all the way back to where Clegg led them in 2010 the Lib Dems would, crudely speaking, have to hold their current seats and win everything down to target no.48, Watford, where they are in third place and over 14,000 votes behind the Conservatives. Such a dramatic reversal in fortunes would also entail the fall of seats such as Gordon - toppling Alex Salmond in the process - and Bosworth, which has been Tory since 1970 and hasn't been held by a Liberal since the War. Each one of those they can't swing would mean they'd have to capture something even further down the list to compensate. This is not realistic for a party currently polling not quite half the share of the popular vote that they managed pre-Coalition.
IMHO if the Lib Dems can get their total number of MPs anywhere above 20 then that would count as a very strong performance for them.
On turnout of 53%
Robertson's majority is 18.4% and there was already a swing to cons at the last election.