rBlack ock I am aware of that...I meant going forward now we seemed to have witnessed some unexplainable Tory surge in the polls. A more "normal" (by current standards) would have some in meltdown.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
This is the sort of thing which just makes me nervous. It can't be this good; it's just not realistic. In 2015 I was nervous when I saw my excellent Conservative MP well ahead in the postal votes (by a ratio of more than 3:2 on some days) but he still only ended up with a majority of 165.
If there is a national swing of XYZ% from Labour to Conservative, it could easily vary between 2*XYZ% and 0% (or even minus-something%) in some constituencies, and Croydon Central (or London generally) could easily be at the low end of that range of swings.
I never wanted this unnecessary unwanted general election in the first place, but now that it's happening I suppose I will have to get on with it (instead of reading books, writing poetry, sipping tea, eating cake, and being generally bourgeois and lazy, which is what I thought 2017 was going to be like).
OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
A bloke my wife went to school with lives in Morden, keen to vote Labour
However was speaking to a relative of my wife at a funeral today who is a Labour Councillor.
Lets just say he is not overly positive.
I spoke to a life long labour voting friend yesterday...Cliff notes of The conversation, fuck fuck fuck fuck fuckity fuck, labour are fucked...And I am not voting for that fucking corbyn...
A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.
Perhaps. But, at least Cameron passed on a functioning party.
The effect of Blair, Brown & Miliband has been to wreck a functioning party.
Cameron I think will be highly rated in the future. Unlike most political figures he actually did pretty much all that he promised. When he took over, the Tories looked as deep in the shit as labour are now and yet he left them with a majority & Corbyn running labour. Pretty strong story.
Chuka Umunna @ChukaUmunna Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship
That's the way the cookie crumbles under FPTP. Labour took themselves out of the game and threw themselves into oblivion when they elected Corbyn.
That's not the Conservatives fault anymore than it was Blairs fault that the Tories destroyed themselves and went down to a 180 seat Labour landslide in 1997.
But, the encouraging thing from Labour's perspective is that as FPTP gives so FPTP can take away... And it can do it surprisingly quickly. Ten years from now we might be talking about Labour (or some other party) being on course for a landslide that kicks out the Tories...
Yes. I think the longer term such a result now could be extremely good for the Labour party. Once they've done the hard thinking about what the Labour party is for in the 21st century, new candidates without all the baggage & history will come forward, and then they can start afresh.
I never wanted this unnecessary unwanted general election in the first place, but now that it's happening I suppose I will have to get on with it (instead of reading books, writing poetry, sipping tea, eating cake, and being generally bourgeois and lazy, which is what I thought 2017 was going to be like).
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
May has been on the telly.
Leavers absolubtely fucking love her. My colleague voted Lib Dem in 2010, switched to UKIP - voted leave and is now with the Tories.
Then the opposition absolutely have to nail her on Brexit - any hint of compromise or softness, and some number of those adoring Leavers will flounce away.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
Would be a good catch. Hopefully he and Lynton will show her the way on being a bit less loony right wing and a bit more moderate right wing.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
Makes sense - I like him, and I live in the SW, so maybe others do.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
What would he campaign on? Vote for may to ensure Walter softy brexit?
Reminder: the Labour Party now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that the idea of a Far Left minority Government, headed by Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Diane Abbott and Emily Thornberry, and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is to be embraced and celebrated.
May cannot possibly poll any lower than 41-42% (make that nearer 45% if I'm wrong about Ukip and they totally implode,) and Corbyn can't make 30% under any realistic scenario, insofar as I can see - and the gap could well be wider.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
Makes sense - I like him, and I live in the SW, so maybe others do.
I'm hopefully he'll be back, maybe in the Lords. He still has a lot to offer.
This is the sort of thing which just makes me nervous. It can't be this good; it's just not realistic. In 2015 I was nervous when I saw my excellent Conservative MP well ahead in the postal votes (by a ratio of more than 3:2 on some days) but he still only ended up with a majority of 165.
If there is a national swing of XYZ% from Labour to Conservative, it could easily vary between 2*XYZ% and 0% (or even minus-something%) in some constituencies, and Croydon Central (or London generally) could easily be at the low end of that range of swings.
I never wanted this unnecessary unwanted general election in the first place, but now that it's happening I suppose I will have to get on with it (instead of reading books, writing poetry, sipping tea, eating cake, and being generally bourgeois and lazy, which is what I thought 2017 was going to be like).
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.
No he won't. He did fine, he just lost big on the EU issue - and if that turns out fine, then his personal failure on that won't matter.
Errrh, he resigns with a majority of 12 and within a year his party has a majority of 100+ - what does that tell you?
These are very different circumstances - May is reaching people he never reached, but part of that is because of Brexit happening which, let's remember, she didn't want to happen. Her appeal seems real, but the positive situation of being able to steer Brexit well is not something that happened due to her skill as a leader.
You act like he was a barrier to the Tory vote this whole time, which is provably nonsense given where they were when he arrived on the scene. These are not directly comparable situations.
OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
I will be casting my ballot to return a potential Labour Prime Minister to Westminster.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
What was the highest swing in 1997 ? Brent North ? It must have been nearly double the national swing.
May cannot possibly poll any lower than 41-42% (make that nearer 45% if I'm wrong about Ukip and they totally implode,) and Corbyn can't make 30% under any realistic scenario, insofar as I can see - and the gap could well be wider.
If the Tories can just get Corbyn to call the Falkland Islands the Malvinas it could be all over.
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
No, because we are quite normal people and don’t maintain an hourly running tally of the membership of the Lib Dems.
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
Yes, very impressive stuff. I think some PBers are among them. Make better use of them than the Labour 500k.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
May has been on the telly.
Leavers absolubtely fucking love her. My colleague voted Lib Dem in 2010, switched to UKIP - voted leave and is now with the Tories.
Two of the 21% leads came pre-announcement, while she was supposedly up mount snowdon having a regilious conversation to the idea of a snap GE
I think Gina Miller has probably added a few % to the Tory score actually.
One does wonder whether she is a UKIP/Leave mole trying to make the Remain camp look insane. A liberal forum I frequent which is completely and totally out of touch with reality had the members cheering her on, which means she is complete poison for ordinary voters.
OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
I will be casting my ballot to return a potential Labour Prime Minister to Westminster.
Chuka Umunna @ChukaUmunna Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship
That's the way the cookie crumbles under FPTP. Labour took themselves out of the game and threw themselves into oblivion when they elected Corbyn.
That's not the Conservatives fault anymore than it was Blairs fault that the Tories destroyed themselves and went down to a 180 seat Labour landslide in 1997.
But, the encouraging thing from Labour's perspective is that as FPTP gives so FPTP can take away... And it can do it surprisingly quickly. Ten years from now we might be talking about Labour (or some other party) being on course for a landslide that kicks out the Tories...
Yes. I think the longer term such a result now could be extremely good for the Labour party. Once they've done the hard thinking about what the Labour party is for in the 21st century, new candidates without all the baggage & history will come forward, and then they can start afresh.
I hope.
Yep. Sometimes you have to destroy to rebuild.
Labour had to go through 1983 to get to 1997. The Tories had to go through 1997 to get to 2017.
OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
I will be casting my ballot to return a potential Labour Prime Minister to Westminster.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
What was the highest swing in 1997 ? Brent North ? It must have been nearly double the national swing.
According to wiki Brent North is the record holder.
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
That poll looks completely ridiculous, until you realise just what Labour are offering to the electorate, I expect that that 24% will go lower, with the Tories and/or LDs to benefit. We may even see crossover.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Whet were they on just before the election was called?
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
May has been on the telly.
Leavers absolubtely fucking love her. My colleague voted Lib Dem in 2010, switched to UKIP - voted leave and is now with the Tories.
Seems to be the equivalent of what Merkel has in Germany.
I don't get it myself.
Hilary seemed to have the reverse effect.
Difference between May and Clinton? May *IS* 20 points ahead in the polls.
Plus say what you like about Trump he was a far better campaigner than Corbyn and a far more dangerous opponent, as indeed was Bernie Sanders who almost beat her in the primaries too, both appealed to the white working class in a way Corbyn never could
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
I joined 3 weeks ago a bit ahead of the surge and with no idea that there would be an election.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
Will Mrs Duffy come out for Mrs May? That's what I'm waiting for!
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
So still likely somewhere between 9-17 lead now though, assuming there's a bit of a bump and assuming the other 20+ leads were anomalous?
A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.
No he won't. He did fine, he just lost big on the EU issue - and if that turns out fine, then his personal failure on that won't matter.
Errrh, he resigns with a majority of 12 and within a year his party has a majority of 100+ - what does that tell you?
These are very different circumstances - May is reaching people he never reached, but part of that is because of Brexit happening which, let's remember, she didn't want to happen. Her appeal seems real, but the positive situation of being able to steer Brexit well is not something that happened due to her skill as a leader.
You act like he was a barrier to the Tory vote this whole time, which is provably nonsense given where they were when he arrived on the scene. These are not directly comparable situations.
Quite right. May was a core part of the Cameron project, and a Remainer to boot.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
I can see places like Rochdale being vulnerable - middle class/affluent leavers in Bamford/Littleborough/Milnrow could shift from the LDs, WWC leavers from Lab, lots of SME owners who could be sold on a Tory message.
Add the toxicity of Danczuk and the negative view of Corbyn's leadership, and we could see some very surprising results.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
What would he campaign on? Vote for may to ensure Walter softy brexit?
To warn people of the dangers of Corbyn.
Dave can do the dirty political attacks without looking like a nasty Tory.
Still think if the locals make things look not so bad for Lab/Good for LD, there will be an overreaction on its impact for the GEs, I'll be watching for moves in the markets then I should think.
I am sure when the public hear more about corbyn ozil law to ensure a maximum wage they will be back on board.
That's what is so bonkers about this poll, I can't see a Labour campaign with Corbyn and McDonnell leading being a net vote winner, and the potential for serious slip-ups is huge.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Whet were they on just before the election was called?
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
He might have dented some of that appeal by his belated declaration that he was pleased the EU referendum went Leave. I still don't understand that at all.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Tess is no Ted and Jezza is certainly no Harold...
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
What would he campaign on? Vote for may to ensure Walter softy brexit?
To warn people of the dangers of Corbyn.
Dave can do the dirty political attacks without looking like a nasty Tory.
In the SW, isn't the enemy the lib dems not Karl Marx idiot cousin?
BTW not much time to view PB today owing to political activity. Has anyone commented on the surge in Lib Dem members. 5000+ by tea time yesterday, and continuing strongly today.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
My source who told me yesterday that Osborne was going to stand down as an MP says May and Cameron are in talks for Dave to campaign in the South West.
What would he campaign on? Vote for may to ensure Walter softy brexit?
To warn people of the dangers of Corbyn.
Dave can do the dirty political attacks without looking like a nasty Tory.
In the SW, isn't the enemy the lib dems not Karl Marx idiot cousin?
Every non vote for the Tories is a vote to make Corbyn PM.
On UNS, Labour would lose everything up to and including Sedgefield on an 8.5% swing.
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
Will Mrs Duffy come our for Mrs May? That;s what I'm waiting for!
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Whet were they on just before the election was called?
About 4% ahead on average IIRC
So the election campaign in that instance barely shifted the polls. Compare and contrast with the 2010 election!
Its almost as if most of the British people don't read pb.c and therefore don't realise how badly the government and Mrs May are doing.
Of my local labour literature received today, 2 were locally focused pieces, and the nationally focused one was 3 pages of the 'NHS is in crisis' and page with a few bullet points on austerity, minimum wage etc. Fighting the same old battles.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
I don't think the Conservative position is the story. The will probably poll in the mid-high 40s and crush Labour in many areas regardless of the campaign. The question is whether Labour will drop through the FPTP trapdoor completely and whether the 'metropolitan liberal elite' get the message and abandon Labour too - and Brexit is a good motivator for them to do so.
Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
Yes, inexplicable. Seems like UKIP dropping like a stone finally registering, but why now.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
He might have dented some of that appeal by his belated declaration that he was pleased the EU referendum went Leave. I still don't understand that at all.
I doubt most people will have picked up on a comment like that,given he's inthe background now.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Yes and the Tories actually finished the election 0.7% ahead of Labour in the popular vote and just 4 MPs behind
Is anyone else on here prepared to say they haven't decided who they are going to vote for? I was hoping I wouldn't have to make my mind up on such an unappetising menu until 2020. And there's the locals as well. Maybe another protest vote for the Greens. I quite liked their idea for a 4 day week. Not saying it's practical but our long hours low productivity culture needs shaking up.
In February 1974 when the Conservatives called the "Who Governs Britain" election they quickly moved up to a 9% opinion poll lead . The final polls before election day had them still between 2 and 5% ahead .
Whet were they on just before the election was called?
Labour had been leading almost continually for three years - but there weren't as many polls back then:
Mrs May is uninspiring and that's helping her. She's cautious, thinks carefully before doing anything at all, and is a boring speaker. That's why the silly talk of her being Erdogan makes the accusers look barmy.
Faced with the uncertainty of Brexit, and the wild lunacy of Jezza, she only has to plod carefully on. The tortoise defeating the mad March hare.
Cameron and May are the right leaders for the right time.
Cameron - started with under 200 seats, PM five years later, faced huge deficit "whoever wins will be out of power for a generation", another five years later he got a Con majority.
Could May have done that? Of course not. Cameron was electorally more successful than anyone could have possibly even dreamt.
But May is the right PM for Brexit. Cameron couldn't go on and May is widely trusted to deliver Brexit. And she doesn't have the "posh" drawback that Cameron had so can reach people now who Cameron couldn't.
Is anyone else on here prepared to say they haven't decided who they are going to vote for? I was hoping I wouldn't have to make my mind up on such an unappetising menu until 2020. And there's the locals as well. Maybe another protest vote for the Greens. I quite liked their idea for a 4 day week. Not saying it's practical but our long hours low productivity culture needs shaking up.
At the locals I'm going to be voting for the Residents' Group, but for the General Election it could go to anyone (bar Labour).
Is anyone else on here prepared to say they haven't decided who they are going to vote for? I was hoping I wouldn't have to make my mind up on such an unappetising menu until 2020. And there's the locals as well. Maybe another protest vote for the Greens. I quite liked their idea for a 4 day week. Not saying it's practical but our long hours low productivity culture needs shaking up.
The problem with a four day week is that I've got a suspicion I'd end up doing five days equivalent work under more pressure and for less pay.
Mrs May is uninspiring and that's helping her. She's cautious, thinks carefully before doing anything at all, and is a boring speaker. That's why the silly talk of her being Erdogan makes the accusers look barmy.
Faced with the uncertainty of Brexit, and the wild lunacy of Jezza, she only has to plod carefully on. The tortoise defeating the mad March hare.
Cameron and May are the right leaders for the right time.
Cameron - started with under 200 seats, PM five years later, faced huge deficit "whoever wins will be out of power for a generation", another five years later he got a Con majority.
Could May have done that? Of course not. Cameron was electorally more successful than anyone could have possibly even dreamt.
But May is the right PM for Brexit. Cameron couldn't go on and May is widely trusted to deliver Brexit. And she doesn't have the "posh" drawback that Cameron had so can reach people now who Cameron couldn't.
A good summary I feel. It doesn't have to be that one was a disaster and the other brilliant.
I am sure when the public hear more about corbyn ozil law to ensure a maximum wage they will be back on board.
That's what is so bonkers about this poll, I can't see a Labour campaign with Corbyn and McDonnell leading being a net vote winner, and the potential for serious slip-ups is huge.
Another reminder: in each of the last six general elections, Labour's final result on polling day was lower than their polling average two months beforehand.
*IF* the pattern holds then they could sink towards 20%. But I have a hard time envisioning Labour - even under Corbyn - falling below 25% this time around. It's probably not logical of me, but it just feels too good to be true.
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These are unusual times, however, and there is always a chance of someone going the other way or Labour going Lib Dem or....
Leavers absolubtely fucking love her. My colleague voted Lib Dem in 2010, switched to UKIP - voted leave and is now with the Tories.
Odd question, but I wonder if Cameron will be doing any campaigning - people vary from May totally ignoring all he did, to 'she's not really altering that much from Cameron', so I wonder if they'll make use of him - he may not appear to working classes and women like May, but he has appeal in other areas.
If there is a national swing of XYZ% from Labour to Conservative, it could easily vary between 2*XYZ% and 0% (or even minus-something%) in some constituencies, and Croydon Central (or London generally) could easily be at the low end of that range of swings.
I never wanted this unnecessary unwanted general election in the first place, but now that it's happening I suppose I will have to get on with it (instead of reading books, writing poetry, sipping tea, eating cake, and being generally bourgeois and lazy, which is what I thought 2017 was going to be like).
Again, however, have the pollsters adjusted after missing the tide in 2015?
Shall I put you down as a maybe?
Pretty strong story.
As for the defection, not sure Carswell from Independent to Tory would count as a defection.
You don't really defect from being independent, do you?
I hope.
I don't get it myself.
Hilary seemed to have the reverse effect.
May is hanging on to the Tory remainers too !
That makes it even more inexplicable, Article 50 invocation maybe?
We can assume however, that the swing will be lower in some seats, and higher in others. Assuming a maximum swing of about 14%, then the Conservatives could potentially win places like Wentworth, Rochdale, and Eccles.
Reminder: the Labour Party now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that the idea of a Far Left minority Government, headed by Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Diane Abbott and Emily Thornberry, and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is to be embraced and celebrated.
May cannot possibly poll any lower than 41-42% (make that nearer 45% if I'm wrong about Ukip and they totally implode,) and Corbyn can't make 30% under any realistic scenario, insofar as I can see - and the gap could well be wider.
You act like he was a barrier to the Tory vote this whole time, which is provably nonsense given where they were when he arrived on the scene. These are not directly comparable situations.
Labour had to go through 1983 to get to 1997. The Tories had to go through 1997 to get to 2017.
Here we go again...
For Lab->Con it is 14.4%, Hemel Hempstead 2010.
Add the toxicity of Danczuk and the negative view of Corbyn's leadership, and we could see some very surprising results.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
Their actual vote was rather lower than most polls predicted though.
Dave can do the dirty political attacks without looking like a nasty Tory.
Complacency.
May's support: a mile wide and a mile deep.
Mrs May is no Dave.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/vote-intention-1970-oct1974
Faced with the uncertainty of Brexit, and the wild lunacy of Jezza, she only has to plod carefully on. The tortoise defeating the mad March hare.
Cameron - started with under 200 seats, PM five years later, faced huge deficit "whoever wins will be out of power for a generation", another five years later he got a Con majority.
Could May have done that? Of course not. Cameron was electorally more successful than anyone could have possibly even dreamt.
But May is the right PM for Brexit. Cameron couldn't go on and May is widely trusted to deliver Brexit. And she doesn't have the "posh" drawback that Cameron had so can reach people now who Cameron couldn't.
*IF* the pattern holds then they could sink towards 20%. But I have a hard time envisioning Labour - even under Corbyn - falling below 25% this time around. It's probably not logical of me, but it just feels too good to be true.