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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?
EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election – highest since May 2008 pic.twitter.com/awaKs7V0Yv
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The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.
For example if Labour get 15% and the Liberal Democrats 25% surely the latter will, whatever the official figures now, get more seats.
As we saw in Scotland, FPTP doesn't guarantee survival and it can mean defenestration is sudden and brutal. If anyone can do such a disaster, Corbyn can.
Someone pass the smelling salts....
Like it's my fault!
Theresa May = Scipio Africanus
Jeremy Corbyn = Hannibal
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
and postal votes will now be received for the local elections.
This is going to be very, very brutal
Tory -> UKIP -> Independent -> Tory
My brain is telling me that Labour cannot possibly do as bad as it looks like they will, but the evidence makes that hard.
Which Will be higher: SNP share in Scotland or Tory share in England?
Carswell must already have a deal with the Tories, which he is cashing in earlier than expected. His evasion of the question about rejoining the Tories a few weeks back gave the game away.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/19/voters-must-ask-fit-govern-britain/
But above all it is an election about fitness to govern. It is the Labour Party’s misfortune – possibly a terminal one – to have been hijacked by the hard Left, which for many years was a tolerated fringe movement but is now in charge.
However, Labour MPs have made their political bed and must now lie in it. But they cannot be allowed to foist upon the country a leader they do not even trust themselves. Moreover, this is a prospect that people must consider if they are tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats.
Some will definitely be disappointed if the Tories end up with a maj of only 60-80, silly as that would be.
"They can't possibly lose all those seats."
Really quite extraordinary, Brexit/Corybn combination has broken that generations of voting red tradition.
Betting post:
Constituency to Watch: South Belfast
One of 13 souls who voted no to the election being called, the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell caused me serious grief and monetary loss in 2015 by hanging on to his seat, complete with one of the lowest vote shares of any winning Westminster candidate in recent history, 24.5% and a 900 vote majority.
I'd be curious on his odds this time round, if he stands. Sinn Fein, based on the Assembly elections did well and may well take a few more votes from the SDLP, but the main challenge is the DUP who lost out in 2015 thanks to a strong showing from the UKIP candidate, a local, well known and popular politician. Those 1900 votes killed the DUP off.
For the DUP to have a chance, they need a proper candidate who can motivate a fairly lazy Unionist vote. Question is, do they have anyone?
That's not the Conservatives fault anymore than it was Blairs fault that the Tories destroyed themselves and went down to a 180 seat Labour landslide in 1997.
But, the encouraging thing from Labour's perspective is that as FPTP gives so FPTP can take away... And it can do it surprisingly quickly. Ten years from now we might be talking about Labour (or some other party) being on course for a landslide that kicks out the Tories...
*marginals here include seats that are never normally considered marginal like North East Bolton.
One opinion doesn't mean much, but if that's reflected more widely, we could be looking at the sort of shift you mention.
Vox pop in The Mirror in Wakefield seems to suggest we're seeing the UK equivalent of the Reagan Democrats - general gist is May has delivered, UKIP are now pointless and Jezza is a useless pillock.
*Creases for PBers of a certain vintage
It may be unfair, but that's life for you.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
It could just be an outlier. If a series of polls reinforces the findings however, then that's another 500,000 to 1,000,000 extra Ukip voters moving into the Tory column. The "Brexit election" already bearing fruit for Theresa May...
Now back to 1.19 back / 1.22 lay.
Seems odd.
The effect of Blair, Brown & Miliband has been to wreck a functioning party.
However was speaking to a relative of my wife at a funeral today who is a Labour Councillor.
Lets just say he is not overly positive.