The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
Isn't that factored in already? If you can swing one vote, why not 650?
If they are Tories it is just how much cash required
Labour and the Lib Dems have also been fined by the electoral commission.
Rob, they are amateurs compared to the Tories, same as spies defecting to the Russians, Tory to a person. A perfidious lot for sure.
The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
Isn't that factored in already? If you can swing one vote, why not 650?
If they are Tories it is just how much cash required
What is the point at which we should be getting suspicious of foreign intervention? Con Gain Bootle, as @Ave_it used to say?
Mrs C, it's happily unlikely but many said that Trump could never be president and the UK would never vote to leave the EU.
Mr Dancer, the minute it looks like Labour is electable, some ambitious bunch within Labour will ensure Corbyn is sidelined and that their person is leader.
Corbyn might as well remain in charge of a shambles because at this point there is no benefit for whoever succeeds him so no contenders will emerge.
Very true some ambitious person will assist the established moderate side of the Labour Party to become PM .Many of the 97 cabinet started in the defeat of 1983.
The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
Isn't that factored in already? If you can swing one vote, why not 650?
If they are Tories it is just how much cash required
What is the point at which we should be getting suspicious of foreign intervention? Con Gain Bootle, as @Ave_it used to say?
Lab take Maidenhead?
The Libs did a poor job of it with their decapitation strategy.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
We have a quasi Presidential system.
There's nothing quasi about the Prime Minister.
Hmmm
We have an elective dictatorship which worsens with time although it recedes a bit every time the govt. majority drops to 10-20
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
If it was the media that warned the Russians rather than the US military warning them, then it was a very risky missile strike.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
If we'd voted to strike in 2013 it might have given the USA more confidence to push forward with their agenda at the time.
We're not irrelevant, even if we are not a great power.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
True go straight to the horses mouth.No point going to a broker who does not have a clue.
The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
We have a quasi Presidential system.
Not enough to facilitate a demagogue being elected. You need to influence a large minority of voters in 336 localities. Much harder to organise
336?
Surely only about 50 as there is no point trying to up Labour's vote share on either Islington nor St Johns Wood.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
If we'd voted to strike in 2013 it might have given the USA more confidence to push forward with their agenda at the time.
We're not irrelevant, even if we are not a great power.
It does seem to me that the UK should be giving both sides a hearing before deciding what is the best thing to do in any given situation. Therefore if Russia 'got in first' I would expect us to be hearing how the USA views it; and, of course, vice versa, if it's a situation of that kind.
Even the combined powers of Jesus, Muhammad, Buddha, Moses, Joseph Smith, Krishna, Laozi and "Sea Man" combined cannot* get Jez to become PM.
* hat tip Morris Dancer
We live in a land of snowflakes who believe you can steal an entire referendum by painting one slightly optimistic number on the side of a bus. That being so, how hard can it really be to get Jez into number 10?
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
George Galloway appears on RT a lot too, but Respect isn't a major party.
Here's a research paper by Keir Giles for Chatham House.
"Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties, whose agenda falls in well with Russian state objectives and whose supporters are not always immune to the attraction of President Putin’s declared support for traditional values." (emphasis added)
The story is...around the time the USSR and its CPSU disappeared, a more resilient organisation in that part of the world divided into two, both bearing new names, and got stronger.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
If it was the media that warned the Russians rather than the US military warning them, then it was a very risky missile strike.
The US have stated that they gave Russia one hour's notice.
The clown is now doing his anti-media act. Trump is so full of it. First, it's amazingly rich for him to criticise the media. Second, if you don't want the media to spread your military secrets around, don't give them to the media in the first place.
The USS Carl Vinson on its way towards Korea scares the crap out of me. I'm glad I'm not in Seoul. Next Saturday is the "Day of the Sun" in North Korea, an annual commemoration of the solar god-king"socialist leader" Kim Il-Sung. If there is any day of the year when Kim Jong-Un and his team are unusually willing to lose a bit of face and play down a few US missile strikes, I seriously don't think it's 15 April.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
I don't entirely disagree, but we haven't made any positive and pretentious step, we have simply cancelled a visit - which might even save us money - and Russia's response is surprisingly vociferous if we are just meaningless nonentities.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
Even the combined powers of Jesus, Muhammad, Buddha, Moses, Joseph Smith, Krishna, Laozi and "Sea Man" combined cannot* get Jez to become PM.
* hat tip Morris Dancer
We live in a land of snowflakes who believe you can steal an entire referendum by painting one slightly optimistic number on the side of a bus. That being so, how hard can it really be to get Jez into number 10?
Maybe their side doesn't have anyone who can paint?
In your six years of failure on this issue at the Home Office, immigration from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and elsewhere, exceeded, most years, immigration from within the EU, something the wretched Jean Claude Juncker delights in pointing out.
You didn’t need Brexit to stop a lot of the immigration people most object to, Theresa. So why didn’t you?
The conclusion is obvious. To get a serious grip on most immigration, we didn’t actually need to leave the EU. We just needed an effective Home Secretary.
In Mrs May we didn’t have one. And will she do any better on immigration as Prime Minister?
Mr. Cyan, as Zhuge Liang almost wrote (I paraphrase to remove the death bits), when the force of momentum by which parties decline and candidates falter can move with sudden rapidity, should we not be wary?
Got to say, if Macron doesn't win from here, as well as annoying me it'll be a substantial failure on his part.
The whole thrust of TSE's header is a nonsense. How FFS can Russia decide or even influence millions of voters? The idea is preposterous. I suspect it is being used by those who want to excuse the failure of their prefered candidate.
Have you read the thread?
Dick Cheney says Russia interfered with the last US Presidential election, he is no fan of Hillary Clinton.
Events in France have also led to concerns.
If it can happen in America and France why not here?
Has no one printed out we have a parliamentary rather than presidential system?
In your six years of failure on this issue at the Home Office, immigration from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and elsewhere, exceeded, most years, immigration from within the EU, something the wretched Jean Claude Juncker delights in pointing out.
You didn’t need Brexit to stop a lot of the immigration people most object to, Theresa. So why didn’t you?
The conclusion is obvious. To get a serious grip on most immigration, we didn’t actually need to leave the EU. We just needed an effective Home Secretary.
In Mrs May we didn’t have one. And will she do any better on immigration as Prime Minister?
Melenchon on 6 from the Kantar Sofres previous poll. Le Pen and Macron both down 2 and Fillon stagnant.
Head to heads
Melenchon beats Le Pen 57-43 and narrowly loses to Macron 53-47
And Poutou is up to 2.5%. Perhaps some polls will soon have Mélenchon in second place. He's certainly got some momentum.
Melenchon is the one that will give Macron the toughest fight in the final round, if he gets through.
53-47 head to head can easily be turned around in the TV debate ahead of the final vote, given Melenchon's performance in TV debates so far.
Macron-Melenchon is the dream.
Not sure how Fillon is still at 6.0, though I'm red enough on him at the moment.
Did you see my post on the previous thread Pulp? I gave reasons why I think that not only will Melenchon win, but actually win the first round as well.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
If it was the media that warned the Russians rather than the US military warning them, then it was a very risky missile strike.
The US have stated that they gave Russia one hour's notice.
The clown is now doing his anti-media act. Trump is so full of it. First, it's amazingly rich for him to criticise the media. Second, if you don't want the media to spread your military secrets around, don't give them to the media in the first place.
The USS Carl Vinson on its way towards Korea scares the crap out of me. I'm glad I'm not in Seoul. Next Saturday is the "Day of the Sun" in North Korea, an annual commemoration of the solar god-king"socialist leader" Kim Il-Sung. If there is any day of the year when Kim Jong-Un and his team are unusually willing to lose a bit of face and play down a few US missile strikes, I seriously don't think it's 15 April.
It could be the Day of a Thousand Suns for Kim Jong-Un.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
I don't entirely disagree, but we haven't made any positive and pretentious step, we have simply cancelled a visit - which might even save us money - and Russia's response is surprisingly vociferous if we are just meaningless nonentities.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
It is bugger all as well, but Scotland does not pretend to be a world power so no idea where you got that from. UK announcing Russia are bad guys and their buffoon is not going to go talk to them but will leave it to the Americans just sums up for me the UK position in the world, Billy no mates and desperately grabbing onto US coat tails for some reflected glory. It really is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.
* he's done it a weird way, by asking whether people are sticking with their 2015 choice, and then asking defectors from other parties who they're "likely" to switch to.
In your six years of failure on this issue at the Home Office, immigration from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and elsewhere, exceeded, most years, immigration from within the EU, something the wretched Jean Claude Juncker delights in pointing out.
You didn’t need Brexit to stop a lot of the immigration people most object to, Theresa. So why didn’t you?
The conclusion is obvious. To get a serious grip on most immigration, we didn’t actually need to leave the EU. We just needed an effective Home Secretary.
In Mrs May we didn’t have one. And will she do any better on immigration as Prime Minister?
He's confusing immigration and migration, as of course is Drunker. It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world. However, a staggering 629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world. The answer may be found in those migrant workers who come here for a busy season and then head home, therefore not counting as migrants (the large number of overseas students who do not of course require NI numbers may have a bearing on the latter as well). A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent, with the largest single group being Romanian.
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
I don't entirely disagree, but we haven't made any positive and pretentious step, we have simply cancelled a visit - which might even save us money - and Russia's response is surprisingly vociferous if we are just meaningless nonentities.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
It is bugger all as well, but Scotland does not pretend to be a world power so no idea where you got that from. UK announcing Russia are bad guys and their buffoon is not going to go talk to them but will leave it to the Americans just sums up for me the UK position in the world, Billy no mates and desperately grabbing onto US coat tails for some reflected glory. It really is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
If it was the media that warned the Russians rather than the US military warning them, then it was a very risky missile strike.
Yes, that does seem very unlikey as the Russians share the base.
Based on this thread I have just staked my entire life savings on Jezza for next PM.
Not.
Anyway, to answer 'why couldn’t Putin make Corbyn PM?', what's that line about a pig and lipstick again?
Didn't you vote for Corbyn as leader?
Only the first time...
So , at some stage you thought he was actually a good choice, or just the least worst?
The least worst - with the other three I expected us to drift along to another defeat in 2020 while I thought electing Corbyn might give us a shot in the arm / kick up the backside / shake up politics as usual, with the anticipation that we could try again if things didn't work out.
It quickly became clear that things weren't working out, but for well rehearsed reasons he's still there.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
I don't entirely disagree, but we haven't made any positive and pretentious step, we have simply cancelled a visit - which might even save us money - and Russia's response is surprisingly vociferous if we are just meaningless nonentities.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
It is bugger all as well, but Scotland does not pretend to be a world power so no idea where you got that from. UK announcing Russia are bad guys and their buffoon is not going to go talk to them but will leave it to the Americans just sums up for me the UK position in the world, Billy no mates and desperately grabbing onto US coat tails for some reflected glory. It really is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.
In general, I agree that the UK humiliates itself when it aligns itself with the US, but what Boris is doing, is rather self-effacingly withdrawing from an opportunity to strut on the public stage. This is not in the same galaxy, let alone ballpark, as Tony "Does my dick look big in this foreign policy?" Blair.
In your six years of failure on this issue at the Home Office, immigration from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and elsewhere, exceeded, most years, immigration from within the EU, something the wretched Jean Claude Juncker delights in pointing out.
You didn’t need Brexit to stop a lot of the immigration people most object to, Theresa. So why didn’t you?
The conclusion is obvious. To get a serious grip on most immigration, we didn’t actually need to leave the EU. We just needed an effective Home Secretary.
In Mrs May we didn’t have one. And will she do any better on immigration as Prime Minister?
He's confusing immigration and migration, as of course is Drunker. It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world. However, a staggering 629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world. The answer may be found in those migrant workers who come here for a busy season and then head home, therefore not counting as migrants (the large number of overseas students who do not of course require NI numbers may have a bearing on the latter as well). A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent, with the largest single group being Romanian.
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
So surely that means that non-EU migrants are more likely to permenantly settle, and less likely to be working. More spouses, children and family dependants. Transient agricultural workers, construction workers and hospitality staff do not put so much pressure on housing or the welfare state, and as they have NI numbers, pay in rather than take out.
I see Trump is saying now on twitter that tens of millions of dollars of missiles were wasted because the media news warned them about the attack before it happened and all the leaders escaped.
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
Seems sensible, on both sides. Either Russia needs a go-between, or it doesn't. Much better if it doesn't.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
Why does the UK try to pretend they are a world power, why waste all that money willy waving when you are just being laughed at.
I don't entirely disagree, but we haven't made any positive and pretentious step, we have simply cancelled a visit - which might even save us money - and Russia's response is surprisingly vociferous if we are just meaningless nonentities.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
It is bugger all as well, but Scotland does not pretend to be a world power so no idea where you got that from. UK announcing Russia are bad guys and their buffoon is not going to go talk to them but will leave it to the Americans just sums up for me the UK position in the world, Billy no mates and desperately grabbing onto US coat tails for some reflected glory. It really is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.
In general, I agree that the UK humiliates itself when it aligns itself with the US, but what Boris is doing, is rather self-effacingly withdrawing from an opportunity to strut on the public stage. This is not in the same galaxy, let alone ballpark, as Tony "Does my dick look big in this foreign policy?" Blair.
It is the same, because it's what the US establishment wants us to do. Back then they wanted a big ally, now they (albeit without the whole-hearted support of their own President) want to isolate Russia. The fact that this particular episode of buttlickery hasn't resulted in any drawback beyond us looking like twats is beside the point. Ultimately it could lead us into a World War.
He's confusing immigration and migration, as of course is Drunker. It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world. However, a staggering 629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world. The answer may be found in those migrant workers who come here for a busy season and then head home, therefore not counting as migrants (the large number of overseas students who do not of course require NI numbers may have a bearing on the latter as well). A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent, with the largest single group being Romanian.
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
So surely that means that non-EU migrants are more likely to permenantly settle, and less likely to be working. More spouses, children and family dependants. Transient agricultural workers, construction workers and hospitality staff do not put so much pressure on housing or the welfare state, and as they have NI numbers, pay in rather than take out.
All of which is true. And of course the largest non-EU group are Indian medics who keep the NHS going.
Housing I am not sure about either way - while the pressure is officially transient think of all those buy-to-lets in multiple occupancy let on six-month contracts (there's one two doors down from me - three bedrooms, eight Polish workers).
But ask yourself this question - which group puts most pressure on wages at the lower end of the scale in the unskilled and semi-skilled trades? And which is it that people are most likely to notice?
Which organisation is better at getting out their vote?
Interestingly that poll also has Macron beating Fillon by more than Le Pen, 66% to 34% to 61% to 39%, Macron beats Melenchon 53% to 47%. I still think Fillon will outperform the polls rather than Melenchon as the former's supporters are mainly pensioners and more likely to vote but if Melenchon did get through to the runoff he would certainly have a chance as he would beat Le Pen with Macron and Hamon voters and against Macron would get a significant number of Le Pen voters as well as some Hamon supporters. His platform is a mixture of hard left economics, a 100% income tax on all earnings over 360 000 Euros, a lower pension age and 32 hour week and full state reimbursement of healthcare costs, combined with easing of immigration laws and Euroscepticism, he supports a renegotiation of EU Treaties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon
He's confusing immigration and migration, as of course is Drunker. It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world. However, a staggering 629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world. The answer may be found in those migrant workers who come here for a busy season and then head home, therefore not counting as migrants (the large number of overseas students who do not of course require NI numbers may have a bearing on the latter as well). A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent, with the largest single group being Romanian.
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
So surely that means that non-EU migrants are more likely to permenantly settle, and less likely to be working. More spouses, children and family dependants. Transient agricultural workers, construction workers and hospitality staff do not put so much pressure on housing or the welfare state, and as they have NI numbers, pay in rather than take out.
All of which is true. And of course the largest non-EU group are Indian medics who keep the NHS going.
Housing I am not sure about either way - while the pressure is officially transient think of all those buy-to-lets in multiple occupancy let on six-month contracts (there's one two doors down from me - three bedrooms, eight Polish workers).
But ask yourself this question - which group puts most pressure on wages at the lower end of the scale in the unskilled and semi-skilled trades? And which is it that people are most likely to notice?
Wages at the unskilled and semiskilled end of the market a pretty much set by the National Minimum wage, so the answer is not much. 8 Poles in one house is rather overcrowded, but not much pressure on housing stock.
You are wrong on Indian doctors, it is hard for these to get visas now (the few we get now mostly seem to be on spousal visas). If so few non-EU migrants have NI numbers, they cannot be working, or at least not legally and paying tax.
Mellor is spot on on May and migration. May knows how tough it is to enforce restrictions, which is why she has backtracked so much on the subject recently.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
Which organisation is better at getting out their vote?
Interestingly that poll also has Macron beating Fillon by more than Le Pen, 66% to 34% to 61% to 39%, Macron beats Melenchon 53% to 47%. I still think Fillon will outperform the polls rather than Melenchon as the former's supporters are mainly pensioners and more likely to vote but if Melenchon did get through to the runoff he would certainly have a chance as he would beat Le Pen with Macron and Hamon voters and against Macron would get a significant number of Le Pen voters as well as some Hamon supporters. His platform is a mixture of hard left economics, a 100% income tax on all earnings over 360 000 Euros, a lower pension age and 32 hour week and full state reimbursement of healthcare costs, combined with easing of immigration laws and Euroscepticism, he supports a renegotiation of EU Treaties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon
Whoever wins (apart from Fillon) will not have control of the Assembly, so will struggle to implement anything.
I expect Macron to come top in the first round. Fillon voters will vote tactically to ensure he is in the run off, if Fillon continues to fade.
I am comfortably green on this election, particularly because of ChrisinParis's early tips on Macron and Melenchon. I have balanced my book a little.
Ideally, Macron comes top in first round, with Melenchon second, then wins in the runoff, with LePen below 20% in the first round.
He's confusing immigration and migration, as of course is Drunker. It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world. However, a staggering 629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world. The answer may be found in those migrant workers who come here for a busy season and then head home, therefore not counting as migrants (the large number of overseas students who do not of course require NI numbers may have a bearing on the latter as well). A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent, with the largest single group being Romanian.
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
So surely that means that non-EU migrants are more likely to permenantly settle, and less likely to be working. More spouses, children and family dependants. Transient agricultural workers, construction workers and hospitality staff do not put so much pressure on housing or the welfare state, and as they have NI numbers, pay in rather than take out.
All of which is true. And of course the largest non-EU group are Indian medics who keep the NHS going.
Housing I am not sure about either way - while the pressure is officially transient think of all those buy-to-lets in multiple occupancy let on six-month contracts (there's one two doors down from me - three bedrooms, eight Polish workers).
But ask yourself this question - which group puts most pressure on wages at the lower end of the scale in the unskilled and semi-skilled trades? And which is it that people are most likely to notice?
Wages at the unskilled and semiskilled end of the market a pretty much set by the National Minimum wage, so the answer is not much. 8 Poles in one house is rather overcrowded, but not much pressure on housing stock.
You are wrong on Indian doctors, it is hard for these to get visas now (the few we get now mostly seem to be on spousal visas). If so few non-EU migrants have NI numbers, they cannot be working, or at least not legally and paying tax.
Mellor is spot on on May and migration. May knows how tough it is to enforce restrictions, which is why she has backtracked so much on the subject recently.
Once a year someone starts a thread called "The annual 'where's my Eastenders?' thread" during Wimbledon when some people get very upset with the BBC for moving the schedules around.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Not a leaver, but 51.89% for some reason springs to mind. Also, hours spent by whiny PB remainers campaigning for their desired result, 0; money donated by whiny PB remainers to Remain campaign, £0; butthurt experienced by whiny PB remainers, ∞.
8 Poles in one house is rather overcrowded, but not much pressure on housing stock.
Scale it up to the best part of 3 million arrivals - mainly in London/SE.
Non-EU migrants favour London more than EU migrants, who are dispersed around the country and often living in places like Leicester with cheap housing.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I've just had the most blissful week in the sun in Cornwall, introducing my older daughter to her dozens of mad Cornish relatives.
We went to Glendurgan Gardens, we went to St Michael's Mount and Penare and Dodman's Point, we walked the cliffs of Lamorna, whence comes her middle name, we visited the cove by Place where Jesus landed as a boy, we walked Swanpool and Maenporth, we ate Cornish oysters and Cornish crab sandwiches, we skimmed stones on the beach at Trelissick, we drank absurdly expensive wine in the sunshine on the terrace at Idle Rocks in St Mawes and it was all, all, all sublime. Just sublime.
Good evening.
I spent half the summer holidays of my childhood in Cornwall, in the sunshine as it has been this past week it is sublime
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I am with viewcode, New Top Gear series 2 is rather good. It has grown on me, while The Grand Tour has faded. Victory to Auntie methinks.
Which organisation is better at getting out their vote?
Interestingly that poll also has Macron beating Fillon by more than Le Pen, 66% to 34% to 61% to 39%, Macron beats Melenchon 53% to 47%. I still think Fillon will outperform the polls rather than Melenchon as the former's supporters are mainly pensioners and more likely to vote but if Melenchon did get through to the runoff he would certainly have a chance as he would beat Le Pen with Macron and Hamon voters and against Macron would get a significant number of Le Pen voters as well as some Hamon supporters. His platform is a mixture of hard left economics, a 100% income tax on all earnings over 360 000 Euros, a lower pension age and 32 hour week and full state reimbursement of healthcare costs, combined with easing of immigration laws and Euroscepticism, he supports a renegotiation of EU Treaties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon
Whoever wins (apart from Fillon) will not have control of the Assembly, so will struggle to implement anything.
I expect Macron to come top in the first round. Fillon voters will vote tactically to ensure he is in the run off, if Fillon continues to fade.
I am comfortably green on this election, particularly because of ChrisinParis's early tips on Macron and Melenchon. I have balanced my book a little.
Ideally, Macron comes top in first round, with Melenchon second, then wins in the runoff, with LePen below 20% in the first round.
Fillon voters will not vote tactically for Macron in the first round, despite everything his diehard support is still with him and he leads with pensioners, personally I think Le Pen will come top but Fillon will run Macron closer than expected for second but Macron will still edge him out to make the runoff. Melenchon I think will fade by polling day, he cannot squeeze Hamon voters much further
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I am with viewcode, New Top Gear series 2 is rather good. It has grown on me, while The Grand Tour has faded. Victory to Auntie methinks.
I watch it if there is nothing else on worth watching at 8pm on a Sunday
8 Poles in one house is rather overcrowded, but not much pressure on housing stock.
Scale it up to the best part of 3 million arrivals - mainly in London/SE.
Non-EU migrants favour London more than EU migrants, who are dispersed around the country and often living in places like Leicester with cheap housing.
I've just had the most blissful week in the sun in Cornwall, introducing my older daughter to her dozens of mad Cornish relatives.
We went to Glendurgan Gardens, we went to St Michael's Mount and Penare and Dodman's Point, we walked the cliffs of Lamorna, whence comes her middle name, we visited the cove by Place where Jesus landed as a boy, we walked Swanpool and Maenporth, we ate Cornish oysters and Cornish crab sandwiches, we skimmed stones on the beach at Trelissick, we drank absurdly expensive wine in the sunshine on the terrace at Idle Rocks in St Mawes and it was all, all, all sublime. Just sublime.
Good evening.
I spent half the summer holidays of my childhood in Cornwall, in the sunshine as it has been this past week it is sublime
A week of cloudless Spring skies. The gardens at Glendurgan were just embarrassingly beautiful: Edenic, with the camellias in full bloom.
Nowhere in the world is like Cornwall if you get lucky with the weather, especially in April or May.
Yes and wonderful beaches too if the weather is good
For some reason I just find Macron intensely irritating. I can't even understand most of what he says but he just always gives off this horribly smug and self-satisfied air, like a French Chuka Umunna.
Honestly don't have a clue who I'd vote for if I was unfortunate enough to be French. Melenchon seems a bit too left-field even for my Corbyn-voting tastes.
The Russians probably do intervene in elections, but only in the same way as the US has interfered in elections for years.
Would they back Corbyn? Possibly. The purpose of Russian interference is not primarily to elect friendly politicians. It is to undermine the stability of its Western opponents, and the institutions that western power is built on. That explains why they welcomed Trumps victory, he is an idiot that makes the americans look clueless, and who undermines American moral authority. There is no interest in any actual rapproachment or detente with the yanks. The only deal they are ultimately interested is one in which the EU fractures in to nothing, and the Russians regain political authority over much of the European continent. Any deal is merely a concession on the part of its enemies.
Corbyn is probably a useful idiot as far as the Russians are concerned. He peddles the standard critique of western power, capitalism, and any military activity and by taking control of the labour party, he has undermined one of the two main political parties in the UK. He is supported as a figure of disruption. For the same reasons the Russians have an interest in backing scottish nationalism: splitting up the UK would undermine its power and authority in the world.
The main difference between Trump and Corbyn is that Trump- like the scottish nationalists - has actual popular appeal. Corbyn meanwhile has little or no popular appeal. No amount of Russian interference would change that.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
Sergio by 2 thru 4. If he won it would be special, because today would have been Seve's 60th birthday.
Top Gear - I like Matt and Cliff. Rory was in a car with Sabine last week and she connects much better than he does. She should be the regular and he the 'guest presenter'.
The Grand Tour - excellent in parts but is still finding its feet.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I am with viewcode, New Top Gear series 2 is rather good. It has grown on me, while The Grand Tour has faded. Victory to Auntie methinks.
The ratings for both shows are dire - though hopefully the Beeb aren't having to spend too much on the wages of the new hosts. I actually thought Top Gear had run its course, but if some people are still watching then good for them.
To be honest, I actually would have put the Masters on BBC1. If you're going to spend money on sports rights like the Masters you might as well stick it on the main channel. But I guess they don't want to mess around with the news at 10 which I believe has to be in that slot six out of seven days (they like to use their one pass on Saturdays).
...It is true that according to the ONS last year EU headline immigration was 284,000 compared with 289,000 for rest of world....
.... However...629,000 EU citizens obtained NI numbers, compared with just 195,000 from the rest of the world.
....A mere 4% of entrants to the workforce were non EU - 49% were British and the rest from the continent...
The first part deals with migration and gives a ROW/EU ratio of 289000/284000, that's 1.02
The second part deals with NiNos and gives a ROW/EU ratio of 195000/629000, that's 0.31
The third part deals with workforce entrants and gives 4%/(100-49+4)% = 4%/47%, that's 0.09
The second and third part doesn't contradict the first, since the definitions are different: one concerns people, the other working people. So you can't use them to contradict the first
However I am intrigued by the contradiction between the second and third part. For them to be compatible the ROW NiNos would have to be 53,500 (629000*4/47) not 195,000, or the ROW workforce entrants would have to be 15% (47*0.31) not 4%. Or is there some entrants without NiNos or NiNos without entrants?
Less-probable (but still valid?) explanations include people with more than one NiNo, NiNo reuse, or British immigrants (people who left for a while but then came back) messing up the figures.
8 Poles in one house is rather overcrowded, but not much pressure on housing stock.
Scale it up to the best part of 3 million arrivals - mainly in London/SE.
Non-EU migrants favour London more than EU migrants, who are dispersed around the country and often living in places like Leicester with cheap housing.
Would you like to have a bash at backing that up?
Remember when Trevor Philips used to worry about the countryside being a 'no-go area' for ethnic minorities?
I've just had the most blissful week in the sun in Cornwall, introducing my older daughter to her dozens of mad Cornish relatives.
We went to Glendurgan Gardens, we went to St Michael's Mount and Penare and Dodman's Point, we walked the cliffs of Lamorna, whence comes her middle name, we visited the cove by Place where Jesus landed as a boy, we walked Swanpool and Maenporth, we ate Cornish oysters and Cornish crab sandwiches, we skimmed stones on the beach at Trelissick, we drank absurdly expensive wine in the sunshine on the terrace at Idle Rocks in St Mawes and it was all, all, all sublime. Just sublime.
Good evening.
Hainault Country Park was heaving today - not a cloud in the sky, and the entire London skyline visible to the southwest.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I am with viewcode, New Top Gear series 2 is rather good. It has grown on me, while The Grand Tour has faded. Victory to Auntie methinks.
The ratings for both shows are dire - though hopefully the Beeb aren't having to spend too much on the wages of the new hosts. I actually thought Top Gear had run its course, but if some people are still watching then good for them.
To be honest, I actually would have put the Masters on BBC1. If you're going to spend money on sports rights like the Masters you might as well stick it on the main channel. But I guess they don't want to mess around with the news at 10 which I believe has to be in that slot six out of seven days (they like to use their one pass on Saturdays).
I don't know what the rights fees for The masters are for the beeb, but it can't be much. CBS has broadcast the tournament for as long as I can remember, advertising is limited to 4 minutes an hour, and limited to the three sponsors - Mercedes Benz, AT&T and IBM. There are also 2 international sponsors - Rolex and UPS. In 2003 during the female membership controversy, the club swallowed the broadcasting fees and the tournament was shown commercial free.
In what way does that address the concentration of EU migrants in London and the South East? Or is it a simple attempt to deflect from the fact that most of the 3m have landed in London and the SE in addition to the non EU migrants?
I have clocked off work and prepared a tasty meal, ready to sit down and watch NewTopGear, with the wonderful Joey from Friends, the bald white one, the bald black one, the sexy German and the elderly goateed pervert. I switch on the telly and there's some ridiculous fucking golf thing going on until midnight. I am forced to watch the Fellowship of the Ring on ITV2, a film I can damn nearly recite by now.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
Fair to say the gripping Masters' battle between Rose and Garcia will be more than a replacement for Top Gear, which is now a shadow of its former self without the original trio, despite Le Blanc's best efforts
I am with viewcode, New Top Gear series 2 is rather good. It has grown on me, while The Grand Tour has faded. Victory to Auntie methinks.
Disagree. I find both disappointing, the new Top Gear is still pretty desperate and contrived, the Grand Tour is over-scripted, but has glimpses of genius - but nowhere near enough, yet.
The viewing figures for both are dire in comparison to the Old Top Gear.
The BBC's Top Gear will become what it was, a niche programme for petrolheads, with minimal foreign viewers (so the BBC will lose squillions), the fate of Grand Tour depends on Clarkson's ability to re-invent himself one more time - who knows.
Talking of the old-ish making way for the new-ish, did anyone read Jay Rayner's brilliant evisceration of Le Cinq restaurant in Paris in the Observer today? The best hatchet job on a restaurant I have seen, maybe ever. Better than AA Gill in his prime. French food is really fucked, on many levels.
Run this by me again, please: so the Russians interfered in the US election by somehow controlling the minds of the US electorate with some sort of evil "drone" ray from Moscow.
And it worked so well that Hillary actually won the popular vote?
For some reason I just find Macron intensely irritating. I can't even understand most of what he says but he just always gives off this horribly smug and self-satisfied air, like a French Chuka Umunna.
Honestly don't have a clue who I'd vote for if I was unfortunate enough to be French. Melenchon seems a bit too left-field even for my Corbyn-voting tastes.
If Macron wins, Chuka will model himself on him as much as Obama and Blair
Less-probable (but still valid?) explanations include people with more than one NiNo, NiNo reuse, or British immigrants (people who left for a while but then came back) messing up the figures.
Hmph.
NINOs are given to anyone on a benefit claim.
Partners, children on child benefit claims etc.
If a worker turns up with wife and three kids and claims Child Benefit - one worker generates five national insurance numbers.
Comments
Russians saying it is worthless speaking to UK as they always have to go and check their reply with US in any event so might as well just talk to the organ grinder in the first instance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elective_dictatorship.
Thatcher = Reagan without Congress, said some Americans in horror when I explained at the time how it worked.
I don't see how they can expect the UK to respond in such circumstances. The UK might not necessarily stand with the USA, but even if we don't, what difference does it make? Do they think the USA is going to change it's mind because of the UK's representations?
We're not irrelevant, even if we are not a great power.
Surely only about 50 as there is no point trying to up Labour's vote share on either Islington nor St Johns Wood.
* hat tip Morris Dancer
Macron 24%
Le Pen 24%
Melenchon 18%
Fillon 17%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
"Nigel Farage's relationship with Russian media comes under scrutiny"
George Galloway appears on RT a lot too, but Respect isn't a major party.
Here's a research paper by Keir Giles for Chatham House.
"Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties, whose agenda falls in well with Russian state objectives and whose supporters are not always immune to the attraction of President Putin’s declared support for traditional values." (emphasis added)
The story is...around the time the USSR and its CPSU disappeared, a more resilient organisation in that part of the world divided into two, both bearing new names, and got stronger.
The clown is now doing his anti-media act. Trump is so full of it. First, it's amazingly rich for him to criticise the media. Second, if you don't want the media to spread your military secrets around, don't give them to the media in the first place.
The USS Carl Vinson on its way towards Korea scares the crap out of me. I'm glad I'm not in Seoul. Next Saturday is the "Day of the Sun" in North Korea, an annual commemoration of the solar god-king"socialist leader" Kim Il-Sung. If there is any day of the year when Kim Jong-Un and his team are unusually willing to lose a bit of face and play down a few US missile strikes, I seriously don't think it's 15 April.
And I feel obliged to ask, if UK = bugger all, what is 8% by population and GDP of bugger all?
Head to heads
Melenchon beats Le Pen 57-43 and narrowly loses to Macron 53-47
http://www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/david-mellors-blog/mellor-fears-brexit-will-be-biggest-betrayal/
In your six years of failure on this issue at the Home Office, immigration from the Indian subcontinent, Africa, and elsewhere, exceeded, most years, immigration from within the EU, something the wretched Jean Claude Juncker delights in pointing out.
You didn’t need Brexit to stop a lot of the immigration people most object to, Theresa. So why didn’t you?
The conclusion is obvious. To get a serious grip on most immigration, we didn’t actually need to leave the EU. We just needed an effective Home Secretary.
In Mrs May we didn’t have one. And will she do any better on immigration as Prime Minister?
Got to say, if Macron doesn't win from here, as well as annoying me it'll be a substantial failure on his part.
53-47 head to head can easily be turned around in the TV debate ahead of the final vote, given Melenchon's performance in TV debates so far.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/china-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Not sure how Fillon is still at 6.0, though I'm red enough on him at the moment.
It really is pretty pathetic and embarrassing.
Conservatives 41%
Labour 28%
UKIP 10%
Lib Dems 9%
* he's done it a weird way, by asking whether people are sticking with their 2015 choice, and then asking defectors from other parties who they're "likely" to switch to.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ALL-CHANGE-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-April-2017.pdf
That the egregious Junker's figures are ridiculous and implausible should be no surprise to anyone who has bothered to study his umm, inventive tax affairs. But Mellor really should know better. This is like his stupid speech to Goldsmith in 1997 all over again.
https://twitter.com/HorseFeatherNYC/status/850723202506649600/photo/1
It quickly became clear that things weren't working out, but for well rehearsed reasons he's still there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/guinness-exposes-debate-over-a-hard-border-with-ireland-after-brexit?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid==socialflow-facebook-brexit
Housing I am not sure about either way - while the pressure is officially transient think of all those buy-to-lets in multiple occupancy let on six-month contracts (there's one two doors down from me - three bedrooms, eight Polish workers).
But ask yourself this question - which group puts most pressure on wages at the lower end of the scale in the unskilled and semi-skilled trades? And which is it that people are most likely to notice?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Luc_Mélenchon
You are wrong on Indian doctors, it is hard for these to get visas now (the few we get now mostly seem to be on spousal visas). If so few non-EU migrants have NI numbers, they cannot be working, or at least not legally and paying tax.
Mellor is spot on on May and migration. May knows how tough it is to enforce restrictions, which is why she has backtracked so much on the subject recently.
I am sorely vexed.
Quick, somebody give me a leaver using statistics poorly so I can express my wrath.
(Looks down the list)
Ah...
ARS have an interesting article on the Tomahawk missile:
https://arstechnica.co.uk/information-technology/2017/04/tomahawk-missile-history-us-uk/
As ever with ARS, the comments below the line are generally interesting.
I expect Macron to come top in the first round. Fillon voters will vote tactically to ensure he is in the run off, if Fillon continues to fade.
I am comfortably green on this election, particularly because of ChrisinParis's early tips on Macron and Melenchon. I have balanced my book a little.
Ideally, Macron comes top in first round, with Melenchon second, then wins in the runoff, with LePen below 20% in the first round.
http://tinyurl.com/lek8gkc
Once a year someone starts a thread called "The annual 'where's my Eastenders?' thread" during Wimbledon when some people get very upset with the BBC for moving the schedules around.
I
http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2017/04/i-stared-into-the-political-heart-of-the-hyperloop/
(Because we don't have enough meat jam)
Honestly don't have a clue who I'd vote for if I was unfortunate enough to be French. Melenchon seems a bit too left-field even for my Corbyn-voting tastes.
Would they back Corbyn? Possibly. The purpose of Russian interference is not primarily to elect friendly politicians. It is to undermine the stability of its Western opponents, and the institutions that western power is built on. That explains why they welcomed Trumps victory, he is an idiot that makes the americans look clueless, and who undermines American moral authority. There is no interest in any actual rapproachment or detente with the yanks. The only deal they are ultimately interested is one in which the EU fractures in to nothing, and the Russians regain political authority over much of the European continent. Any deal is merely a concession on the part of its enemies.
Corbyn is probably a useful idiot as far as the Russians are concerned. He peddles the standard critique of western power, capitalism, and any military activity and by taking control of the labour party, he has undermined one of the two main political parties in the UK. He is supported as a figure of disruption. For the same reasons the Russians have an interest in backing scottish nationalism: splitting up the UK would undermine its power and authority in the world.
The main difference between Trump and Corbyn is that Trump- like the scottish nationalists - has actual popular appeal. Corbyn meanwhile has little or no popular appeal. No amount of Russian interference would change that.
Top Gear - I like Matt and Cliff. Rory was in a car with Sabine last week and she connects much better than he does. She should be the regular and he the 'guest presenter'.
The Grand Tour - excellent in parts but is still finding its feet.
To be honest, I actually would have put the Masters on BBC1. If you're going to spend money on sports rights like the Masters you might as well stick it on the main channel. But I guess they don't want to mess around with the news at 10 which I believe has to be in that slot six out of seven days (they like to use their one pass on Saturdays).
The second part deals with NiNos and gives a ROW/EU ratio of 195000/629000, that's 0.31
The third part deals with workforce entrants and gives 4%/(100-49+4)% = 4%/47%, that's 0.09
The second and third part doesn't contradict the first, since the definitions are different: one concerns people, the other working people. So you can't use them to contradict the first
However I am intrigued by the contradiction between the second and third part. For them to be compatible the ROW NiNos would have to be 53,500 (629000*4/47) not 195,000, or the ROW workforce entrants would have to be 15% (47*0.31) not 4%. Or is there some entrants without NiNos or NiNos without entrants?
Less-probable (but still valid?) explanations include people with more than one NiNo, NiNo reuse, or British immigrants (people who left for a while but then came back) messing up the figures.
Hmph.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3725524.stm
REMAIN 48%
In what way does that address the concentration of EU migrants in London and the South East? Or is it a simple attempt to deflect from the fact that most of the 3m have landed in London and the SE in addition to the non EU migrants?
Both golf and cricket are more entertaining to the informed viewer than the casual one.
And it worked so well that Hillary actually won the popular vote?
Partners, children on child benefit claims etc.
If a worker turns up with wife and three kids and claims Child Benefit - one worker generates five national insurance numbers.