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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can we end this “snap election” speculation – TMay, like Dave before, simply does not have the power to call one
In the latest PB polling matters podcast we hear that polling has been going on asking the public what they think of the idea of having an early General Election. The responses are interesting but they ignore one pertinent fact:
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Like LEAVE and NO...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/604516/Great_repeal_bill_white_paper_accessible.pdf
The SNP might be disappointed to win fewer seats than Corbyn-led Labour
Should that not be Nouveau Fil(lon)?
The possibility of an early election has passed with the serving of A50.
Can imagine the voters are absolutely sick of voting and want a break.
"4.5 This will be an opportunity to determine the level best placed to take decisions on
these issues, ensuring power sits closer to the people of the UK than ever before. It is the
expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase
in the decision making power of each devolved administration."
What's unclear to people?
Post-Brexit any agreements between the UK and the EU will be international. There will need to be a forum in which disputes and uncertainties relating to those agreements are ruled upon. Maybe it could be called the European Court of Justice ;-)
So by the looks of it, despite all the spin, you will be able to fit all of Lloyds of London's EU operation in the back of a taxi.
It's a matter of Geography, apparently. Israeli Jews are fair game. London N16, not so.
Has everyone forgotten how, when Gordon had his coronation, even his enemies were queuing up to sign a declaration of support because no one dared not to have their name on the list?
Then make offers to the SNP, Greens and Unionists and you have a working minority govt until 2020.
Ken Livingstone embroiled in new Hitler row after saying Zionists collaborated with Nazis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/30/ken-livingstone-faces-expulsion-labour-party-appears-misconduct/
"This legislation came about as part of the 2010 coalition deal between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. It was pressed for by the yellow team because they didn’t want to get into a situation where the Tories could just govern for a year or so and then go straight to the country when circumstances appeared most right ditching them."
Which was rather ironic as it turned out....I imagine that if the Tories had cut & run after a year of coalition the Lib Dems would have held substantially more than the miserable 8 seats they got in 2015.
That said I totally agree with the premise of this piece, the only chance of an early election IMO will be if the expenses issue forces multiple convictions and by-elections.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/847416471814676482
Then 2019 "Will exiting the EU force an early election" (hopefully) (3-1 2019 Election hopefully)
Small trading opportunities abound :>
[In 2020] "The Prime Minister must make arrangements ... for a committee to carry out a review of the operation of this Act and, if appropriate in consequence of its findings, to make recommendations for the repeal or amendment of this Act."
If the FTPA is repealed after 2020 does that mean consequent amendments to prior legislation would automatically be reinstated? For example the Sovereign's power to dissolve Parliament under the Succession to the Crown Act 1707?
And HM's power to dissolve was never codified - it was a prerogative power.
Bad news for the Scottish Nationalists is that they will have even more powers to waste.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/30/soubry-backs-new-centrist-party/
The big picture remains very good employment figures, near record job opportunities and a Brexit boosted improvement in the public sector finances. Inflation is also finally at the desired 2% level.
Any UK EU deal will need a neutral ISDS or another third party.
Serving A50 means it can't happen until we've left.
There must be an outside possibility of an election in 2019 if Parliament was to vote down Theresa's deal... That would in effect, be a vote of no confidence in the government.
However, it does look like it'll be 2020.
Oh well, at least they could get a bridge built on time....
They are terrified of the Lib Dems at the May elections - bear in mind that the group leader in question had 10 times the LD candidate's vote in their division in 2013. They have seen how the LDs are hoovering up local by-elections and believe this could potentially be repeated in their area. Turnout is expected to be low and so "anything could happen".
Corbyn and Labour's general supineness towards Brexit could well result in a bloodbath in May. I still reckon Soubry and Osborne jumping ship is unlikely, but if they did, a lot of Labour would follow them.
Anyway, what do you care, you're a migrant. What's the Great Repeal Bill doing for YOUR region?
http://digiday.com/media/inside-guardians-flailing-u-s-expansion/
Perhaps people aren't interested in live blogging the faux outrage over Legs-It-Gate...
SouthamObserver said
"We will, of course, continue to honour our international commitments and follow international law."
Once we have left the EU, any agreements between the UK and the EU will be subject to international law. But in cases of dispute or uncertainty those agreements will need to be interpreted. I wonder who will do that."
The agreement will be in the former of either a treaty or a trade agreement and will be adjudicated in just the same way as the thousands of other treaties and FTAs in existence.
This is another good point actually - Labour would be fools to support a motion, they can simply say "if you have no confidence in your own government, feel free to vote it down, we will of course also be doing that, but we won't support this motion". Tories voting down their own government either comes across as a lack of confidence or as a engineering an election for political gains / playing politics - neither will go down well in the country at large.
Is it supposed to be insulting? I've never seen it used elsewhere.
So it is stop potential confusion of something like 'May may call a May election'
Yes - currently 2 GW through the French interconnector and 1 GW through the Dutch interconnector.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Let's hope the buggers don't shut it off to spite us.
Her comparing of Maidenhead to Scotland is the platinum level grade trolling I wish I could do to the Scot Nats.
Sorted.
This is a big bone of contention with the Swiss bilaterals.
But he thought that was my Pro-Theresa bias showing.
I shall use Mrs May in any situation where confusion might arise.
Cheers.
Semantics - there are words like "Prime Minister" or "PM" which would apply. The Mail often uses the word "Premier" which betrays the Latin notion of "primus inter pares" but will suffice.
Why have I just wasted my time on this ?
A thought on leaving/joining parties - I've been in the same Party, albeit under different names, for nearly 40 years. I've invested as much personal, financial and emotional capital as anyone supporting a middling League Two team but that isn't the point.
I still think a Lib Dem majority Government would be the best thing for this country but I'm quite well aware 92% or so disagree. Doesn't make them right and me wrong.
To switch to another party would be a total repudiation of that investment and that belief and I can't do that and I'm surprised so many can though a lot of defections in local Government seem based on personality clashes within factions or de-selections.
I could imagine myself leaving the Party and joining the vast majority of the non-aligned and being able to think for myself (though I'm sure I do that now) and have flirted with the idea two or three times (had Clegg formed a Coalition with Brown's Labour Party in 2010 I'm pretty sure I'd have quit) but it would still be a big wrench.