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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even at only 1/2, Macron remains the value bet

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  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    wasd said:

    Can Independents get short money?

    No.

    Short Money is made available to all opposition parties in the House of Commons that secured either two seats or one seat and more than 150,000 votes at the previous General Election. Short Money is not available to parties whose Members have not sworn the oath.
    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01663

    UKIP did get one seat at the previous General Election so I could see this going to court if they're denied the money now.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    wasd said:

    Can Independents get short money?

    No.

    Short Money is made available to all opposition parties in the House of Commons that secured either two seats or one seat and more than 150,000 votes at the previous General Election. Short Money is not available to parties whose Members have not sworn the oath.
    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01663

    UKIP did get one seat at the previous General Election so I could see this going to court if they're denied the money now.
    They'd spend all of their short money on the case!
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    It's what a lot of right wing, swivel-eyed Brexiteers want, of course.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Cameron's masterstroke to destroy UKIP is working wonders... :D
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. D, going better than Blair's plan to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?

    They revelled in it. Farage went on Fox to talk Britain down. This captures it rather well:
    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/britain-alt-right-populists

  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited March 2017
    It would be interesting to see if other parties will declare themselves redundant, having achieved their aims. The Liberals could say their work is done now - we are far more liberal than we were when I was lad, and the Labour party can claim to have made big inroads.

    The Conservatives could remain as they have lost influence, so that would leave just the Tories vs the Trots, a straight binary choice.

    Erm ... I've just convinced myself I'm wrong.

    Sorry Ms Plato has gone. It's no longer OGH, but Mardy Mike (can I say that?)
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,280
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited March 2017
    calum said:

    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad

    If he stands as an Independent next time, he may not win a seat. The Frinton Tories were pretty split between him and their candidate at the by election, plenty hated him. UKIP would probably do well in Jaywick and the other less pleasant parts of the constituency, if they still exist! (UKIP not the parts of the constituency)

    Would be an interesting battle
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Evens isn't that short!


    Cracking value if there is an election in 2017 or 2018.

    Indeed if there is an election in 2019 or 2020 I would still say value, albeit that personally I wouldn't tie my money up.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    Well Sam is right and you are wrong. UKIP had a vital purpose which it has now fulfilled. If you think you would have got Brexit without them then you are deluded.

    And if you actually bothered paying attention, Sam was responding to those Remainers on here who seem to think Carswell leaving UKIP is some kind of victory. They are even more deluded and deserve to be scorned.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    UKIP are clearly down at the moment as May has stolen most of their clothes by implementing Brexit and backing grammar schools etc so many UKIP supporters have drifted back to the Tories as Carswell is now doing. However unless May implements the hardest of Brexits the Leave hardcore want ie not only ending free movement but also refusing to pay anything more to the EU and going straight to WTO terms post departure UKIP will not die as they will still provide a home for the 10 to 20% of the electorate who represent that hardcore
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    isam said:

    calum said:

    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad

    If he stands as an Independent next time, he may not win a seat. The Frinton Tories were pretty split between him and their candidate at the by election, plenty hated him. UKIP would probably do well in Jaywick and the other less pleasant parts of the constituency, if they still exist! (UKIP not the parts of the constituency)

    Would be an interesting battle
    Doesn't that encourage him to become speaker, thus meaning no Tory opposition by convention? Possibly no UKIP either?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,280

    Evens isn't that short!


    Cracking value if there is an election in 2017 or 2018.

    Indeed if there is an election in 2019 or 2020 I would still say value, albeit that personally I wouldn't tie my money up.
    Aye, I guess so, just the tieing up aspect as you say.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Cameron's masterstroke to destroy UKIP is working wonders... :D
    Except it is May who is the beneficiary
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    UKIP are clearly down at the moment as May has stolen most of their clothes by implementing Brexit and backing grammar schools etc so many UKIP supporters have drifted back to the Tories as Carswell is now doing. However unless May implements the hardest of Brexits the Leave hardcore want ie not only ending free movement but also refusing to pay anything more to the EU and going straight to WTO terms post departure UKIP will not die as they will still provide a home for the 10 to 20% of the electorate who represent that hardcore
    That view represents maybe 50% -60% of UKIP supporters. Hardly 10-20% of the electorate.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    UKIP are clearly down at the moment as May has stolen most of their clothes by implementing Brexit and backing grammar schools etc so many UKIP supporters have drifted back to the Tories as Carswell is now doing. However unless May implements the hardest of Brexits the Leave hardcore want ie not only ending free movement but also refusing to pay anything more to the EU and going straight to WTO terms post departure UKIP will not die as they will still provide a home for the 10 to 20% of the electorate who represent that hardcore
    That view represents maybe 50% -60% of UKIP supporters. Hardly 10-20% of the electorate.
    43% of UK voters according to Mori want no more payments at all to the EU after Brexit which would inevitably mean the EU refuse any deal and we go to WTO terms and given UKIP got 13% at the last general election is not far off
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    isam said:

    calum said:

    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad

    If he stands as an Independent next time, he may not win a seat. The Frinton Tories were pretty split between him and their candidate at the by election, plenty hated him. UKIP would probably do well in Jaywick and the other less pleasant parts of the constituency, if they still exist! (UKIP not the parts of the constituency)

    Would be an interesting battle
    Doesn't that encourage him to become speaker, thus meaning no Tory opposition by convention? Possibly no UKIP either?
    Since he has said he will not campaign against Bercow as long as he remains Speaker, the only way Carswell could become Speaker before the next election and therefore gain some sort of security would be if Bercow stood down before then. Otherwise the next Speaker would not be chosen until after the election which Carswell might not win.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited March 2017

    Roger said:

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?

    They revelled in it. Farage went on Fox to talk Britain down. This captures it rather well:
    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/britain-alt-right-populists

    A strange article I thought when I read it. Plenty of people I know are bored of the stage managed "defiance" from media types and the futile light shows in other European capitals to show "unity". May not be the people John Harris or yourself know, but they exist.

    As for the Enoch Powell part, well Enoch predicted that mass immigration from the commonwealth would result in immigrant descendent communities dominating large parts of big cities and appalling acts of violence would follow. This week seemed a strange time to say that hadn't happened. The attacker may have grown up in Kent, but he was radicalised in jail and his anger festered in the Islamic capital of Britain.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    Well Sam is right and you are wrong. UKIP had a vital purpose which it has now fulfilled. If you think you would have got Brexit without them then you are deluded.

    And if you actually bothered paying attention, Sam was responding to those Remainers on here who seem to think Carswell leaving UKIP is some kind of victory. They are even more deluded and deserve to be scorned.
    Like the person who wanted to discover the North Pole cheering when he finds out his main rival has retired.. after discovering it! :smiley:
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    They are saying only 25k on the pro EU march today in London.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Cameron's masterstroke to destroy UKIP is working wonders... :D
    Except it is May who is the beneficiary
    He did it for the party!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Urquhart, nonsense. Alastair Campbell promised a Westminster Mass Demonstration. He wouldn't lie about something like that.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    They are saying only 25k on the pro EU march today in London.

    Might be a lot more if they march again in two or three years time.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    isam said:

    calum said:

    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad

    If he stands as an Independent next time, he may not win a seat. The Frinton Tories were pretty split between him and their candidate at the by election, plenty hated him. UKIP would probably do well in Jaywick and the other less pleasant parts of the constituency, if they still exist! (UKIP not the parts of the constituency)

    Would be an interesting battle
    Doesn't that encourage him to become speaker, thus meaning no Tory opposition by convention? Possibly no UKIP either?
    Since he has said he will not campaign against Bercow as long as he remains Speaker, the only way Carswell could become Speaker before the next election and therefore gain some sort of security would be if Bercow stood down before then. Otherwise the next Speaker would not be chosen until after the election which Carswell might not win.
    Who is going to vote for Carswell as speaker? Hoyle is surely well in the frame and why would Tory MPs vote for someone they consider a rat?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My 500/1 UKIP most seats is looking a lot worse value right now. Come on May. One Cate softest Brexit, full contributions, no immigration restrictions please. And do so today.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,280

    They are saying only 25k on the pro EU march today in London.

    They'll never match Farage's 100k march on the Supreme Court.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    Well Sam is right and you are wrong. UKIP had a vital purpose which it has now fulfilled. If you think you would have got Brexit without them then you are deluded.

    And if you actually bothered paying attention, Sam was responding to those Remainers on here who seem to think Carswell leaving UKIP is some kind of victory. They are even more deluded and deserve to be scorned.
    That doesn't counteract any of what I wrote whatsoever.

    UKIP are despised by many not for wanting to leave the EU, but for other issues too. That is why there are plenty of people who voted to leave the EU but would never have voted for UKIP. The death of UKIP is pleasing even if we are leaving the EU because in part of them.

    Your logic is like saying being glad that Foot never won an election is now "wrong" because Foot's ambition to leave the EEC has been achieved.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    Sam is absolutely right and he is not scoffing. Neither is this a 'silver lining'. It is an inevitable and welcome consequence of the Eurosceptics having won. UKIP no longer has a purpose for many of us who joined it specifically because it was the one viable party pushing for us to leave the EU.
    Sam was saying that UKIP losing its MPs and MEPs was "hardly a reason for people who didn't want [Brexit] to cheer". For those who despise UKIP and opposed Brexit then while Brexit may be upsetting for them, the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    Well Sam is right and you are wrong. UKIP had a vital purpose which it has now fulfilled. If you think you would have got Brexit without them then you are deluded.

    And if you actually bothered paying attention, Sam was responding to those Remainers on here who seem to think Carswell leaving UKIP is some kind of victory. They are even more deluded and deserve to be scorned.
    Like the person who wanted to discover the North Pole cheering when he finds out his main rival has retired.. after discovering it! :smiley:
    Or like a Liverpool fan being pleased to see Man Utd collapse after Sir Alex Ferguson retired as such a victorious manager.

    Doesn't roll back the last nearly two and a half decades of not winning the league, nor does it roll back United being so successful and winning 20 league titles, nor does it displace them overtaking Liverpool's 18. But for a partisan Liverpool fan seeing United struggle is a good thing in and of itself.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020



    That doesn't counteract any of what I wrote whatsoever.

    UKIP are despised by many not for wanting to leave the EU, but for other issues too. That is why there are plenty of people who voted to leave the EU but would never have voted for UKIP. The death of UKIP is pleasing even if we are leaving the EU because in part of them.

    Your logic is like saying being glad that Foot never won an election is now "wrong" because Foot's ambition to leave the EEC has been achieved.

    Nope it is you who are displaying warped logic. You attacked Sam for responding to those Remaniac morons who saw Carswell quiting as some sort of victory. I can only assume you hadn't actually bothered to read what they had said and we're just responding to his post out of context.

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004

    Tim Shipman‏ @ShippersUnbound 6m6 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Ukip

    Was that the exact quote? If so, Shippers may have made a funny joke ("breaking UKIP", geddit?)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826



    That doesn't counteract any of what I wrote whatsoever.

    UKIP are despised by many not for wanting to leave the EU, but for other issues too. That is why there are plenty of people who voted to leave the EU but would never have voted for UKIP. The death of UKIP is pleasing even if we are leaving the EU because in part of them.

    Your logic is like saying being glad that Foot never won an election is now "wrong" because Foot's ambition to leave the EEC has been achieved.

    Nope it is you who are displaying warped logic. You attacked Sam for responding to those Remaniac morons who saw Carswell quiting as some sort of victory. I can only assume you hadn't actually bothered to read what they had said and we're just responding to his post out of context.

    Did you actually read what I wrote? I specifically used the words "silver lining" - you know as in the well worn phrase "every cloud has a silver lining". That wouldn't make any sense whatsoever unless Brexit is a cloud.

    Brexit isn't a cloud for me, but it is for the Remaniacs which is why UKIP can be a silver lining for them. Of course I knew the context, I wouldn't use that analogy if I didn't.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,827
    Danny565 said:

    On the bright side, atleast this means TV shows won't have a reason to invite Carswell to give his self-important guff anymore.

    I think you might be disappointed there. They now have a go to 'independent' voice.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?

    I thought he refused to take them?
    I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
    They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
    ..
    Carswell and the MEPs are off because UKIPs objective has been reached. Hardly a reason for people who didn't want it to happen to cheer!
    Do you scoff at every silver lining?
    Not sure what point you are making.

    U.
    , the demise of UKIP is a reasonable silver lining.

    As someone who both despised UKIP and voted for Brexit, it is of course a win/win for me. But I can understand voters who went the other way seeing the death of UKIP as a silver lining.
    Well Sam is right and you are wrong. UKIP had a vital purpose which it has now fulfilled. If you think you would have got Brexit without them then you are deluded.

    And if you actually bothered paying attention, Sam was responding to those Remainers on here who seem to think Carswell leaving UKIP is some kind of victory. They are even more deluded and deserve to be scorned.
    Like the person who wanted to discover the North Pole cheering when he finds out his main rival has retired.. after discovering it! :smiley:
    Or like a Liverpool fan being pleased to see Man Utd collapse after Sir Alex Ferguson retired as such a victorious manager.

    Doesn't roll back the last nearly two and a half decades of not winning the league, nor does it roll back United being so successful and winning 20 league titles, nor does it displace them overtaking Liverpool's 18. But for a partisan Liverpool fan seeing United struggle is a good thing in and of itself.
    I don't think that works as there is a new season every year.. its more like two people battling to be the first to run a sub 4 minute mile, and when Roger Bannister did it, then retired, the other one celebrating. But they are only able to celebrate because they lost and the matter is settled

    Anyway, its not an important point! Lets forget about it? Who cares really
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    They are saying only 25k on the pro EU march today in London.

    25,000 sounds about right as there where 20,000 ish people who had indicated they would go on Facebook.

    But who is repotting that number? the organisers, or the police, or just media speculation?

    I think the news that Creswell is leaving UKIP will get much more attention,
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?

    They revelled in it. Farage went on Fox to talk Britain down. This captures it rather well:
    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/britain-alt-right-populists

    A strange article I thought when I read it. Plenty of people I know are bored of the stage managed "defiance" from media types and the futile light shows in other European capitals to show "unity". May not be the people John Harris or yourself know, but they exist.

    As for the Enoch Powell part, well Enoch predicted that mass immigration from the commonwealth would result in immigrant descendent communities dominating large parts of big cities and appalling acts of violence would follow. This week seemed a strange time to say that hadn't happened. The attacker may have grown up in Kent, but he was radicalised in jail and his anger festered in the Islamic capital of Britain.

    There is no doubt such people exist.

    Powell prophesised a breakdown in society. That has not happened.

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BigRich said:

    They are saying only 25k on the pro EU march today in London.

    25,000 sounds about right as there where 20,000 ish people who had indicated they would go on Facebook.

    But who is repotting that number? the organisers, or the police, or just media speculation?

    I think the news that Creswell is leaving UKIP will get much more attention,
    The organisers had hoped today’s march would be in the order of a 100K, however we’ll not know the estimated turnout until later this evening. The numbers certainly look a lot better than Eddie Izzard’s pitiful effort, perhaps the good weather, or his absence have bolstered participation.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?

    They revelled in it. Farage went on Fox to talk Britain down. This captures it rather well:
    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/britain-alt-right-populists

    A strange article I thought when I read it. Plenty of people I know are bored of the stage managed "defiance" from media types and the futile light shows in other European capitals to show "unity". May not be the people John Harris or yourself know, but they exist.

    As for the Enoch Powell part, well Enoch predicted that mass immigration from the commonwealth would result in immigrant descendent communities dominating large parts of big cities and appalling acts of violence would follow. This week seemed a strange time to say that hadn't happened. The attacker may have grown up in Kent, but he was radicalised in jail and his anger festered in the Islamic capital of Britain.

    There is no doubt such people exist.

    Powell prophesised a breakdown in society. That has not happened.

    If you had been able to show people in 1968 the current society, they may well have described what we have as broken. When you are living through it the changes happen slowly and seem natural. A snapshot of now, shown to people then, would have dismayed most I reckon, in fact I doubt they would have believed it. If Enoch had simply shown a video of modern Britain he would have been accused of scaremongering

    He prophesised large parts of Wolverhampton, Birmingham and London would be almost exclusively populated by immigrants and their descendants. Do you deny it?

    You yourself have wondered on here over why Birmingham has become so much more Islamic over time. It is as Enoch forecast, with greater numbers comes less assimilation.
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    Nigelb said:

    Danny565 said:

    On the bright side, atleast this means TV shows won't have a reason to invite Carswell to give his self-important guff anymore.

    I think you might be disappointed there. They now have a go to 'independent' voice.
    I do hope you are 100% wrong!
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    Goldsmith called one on a specific issue. Going independent wasn't the reason; it just would have been a part of the result. Carswell has just drifted off-reservation.

    I'm comfortable without a by election.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Nigelb said:

    Danny565 said:

    On the bright side, atleast this means TV shows won't have a reason to invite Carswell to give his self-important guff anymore.

    I think you might be disappointed there. They now have a go to 'independent' voice.
    I do hope you are 100% wrong!
    You are in luck.
    Being wrong is Nigelb's usual position on things.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    I'm on 8/1 he joins the Tories by 2019, so closer than before but no cigar yet.

    Speaking of low odds value, Faroe Islands 6/10 to beat Andorra away today seems rather generous. They have a 1st XI of full time players now and beat Latvia away already in Group B. Andorra have lost 62 of their last 66 non-friendlies.

    Faroe Islands are ranked in top 100 FIFA rankings, Andorra ranked 200th.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited March 2017
    ATTENTION WEALTHY MEN OF PB.COM

    Apparently "FinDom" - Financial Dominatrix is a "thing". It requires wealthy men to hand over control of their wealth to an unrelated lady who will induce terror by spending it.

    I have not tried this before but I am willing to see if it works.

    Email your bank sort code and account number togther with your password to bev@fin-dom-shoes.co.uk

    Think of my shoe collection and donate your life savings now. Be a trendsetter and do not miss out on financial ruin.

    My shoes need your money.!!!
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    isam said:

    calum said:

    Any value in Carswell for Speaker ? - 16/1 with Lad

    If he stands as an Independent next time, he may not win a seat. The Frinton Tories were pretty split between him and their candidate at the by election, plenty hated him. UKIP would probably do well in Jaywick and the other less pleasant parts of the constituency, if they still exist! (UKIP not the parts of the constituency)

    Would be an interesting battle
    Doesn't that encourage him to become speaker, thus meaning no Tory opposition by convention? Possibly no UKIP either?
    Since he has said he will not campaign against Bercow as long as he remains Speaker, the only way Carswell could become Speaker before the next election and therefore gain some sort of security would be if Bercow stood down before then. Otherwise the next Speaker would not be chosen until after the election which Carswell might not win.
    Who is going to vote for Carswell as speaker? Hoyle is surely well in the frame and why would Tory MPs vote for someone they consider a rat?
    Agreed. The issue with Carswell as speaker has always been (since he joined UKIP) that most of the house hates him.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    I'm not fussed, I like FPTP.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    The only voters unrepresented in the Commons are those of Manchester Gorton and certain Northern Ireland constituencies.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    I'm on 8/1 he joins the Tories by 2019, so closer than before but no cigar yet.
    Personally I'd have thought you were slightly further away as he'd have done it all in one go and taken the heat in a single burst.

  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    GeoffM said:

    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    I'm on 8/1 he joins the Tories by 2019, so closer than before but no cigar yet.
    Personally I'd have thought you were slightly further away as he'd have done it all in one go and taken the heat in a single burst.

    Maybe, I'm on the theory of him rejoining them in a few months of a year having 'seen improvements' to the party and 'considered' things.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    I'm on 8/1 he joins the Tories by 2019, so closer than before but no cigar yet.

    Speaking of low odds value, Faroe Islands 6/10 to beat Andorra away today seems rather generous. They have a 1st XI of full time players now and beat Latvia away already in Group B. Andorra have lost 62 of their last 66 non-friendlies.

    Faroe Islands are ranked in top 100 FIFA rankings, Andorra ranked 200th.
    That's a nice tip on the Faroe Islands, they are a lot better than the likes of Andorra. On Carswell joining the Tories, the key question is, how far in advance of the GE would he have to have rejoined them to be the candidate for Clacton (or whatever the seat becomes)?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Quincel said:

    GeoffM said:

    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    Were people on bets that have copped because of Carswell's defection?

    Is he right to swerve a by election or is it dodgy? Goldsmith called one in order to go Independent

    I'm on 8/1 he joins the Tories by 2019, so closer than before but no cigar yet.
    Personally I'd have thought you were slightly further away as he'd have done it all in one go and taken the heat in a single burst.

    Maybe, I'm on the theory of him rejoining them in a few months of a year having 'seen improvements' to the party and 'considered' things.
    I agree that you've still got a plausible route to your 8/1 and the slip certainly shouldn't go in the bin. But I'd take longer odds on it than I would have taken yesterday. Good luck.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
    Arguably the Speaker's Seat as well

    (personally I think that the Speaker should, on election, become the MP for the Palace of Westminster and there should be a by election in his/her previous constituency)
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
    Arguably the Speaker's Seat as well

    (personally I think that the Speaker should, on election, become the MP for the Palace of Westminster and there should be a by election in his/her previous constituency)
    Totally agree on the speaker seat.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,071
    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
    Arguably the Speaker's Seat as well

    (personally I think that the Speaker should, on election, become the MP for the Palace of Westminster and there should be a by election in his/her previous constituency)
    That's a really good idea.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    It would be nice to think that Carswell - a good, decent man - finally reached the end of his tether after the Farage/Banks reaction to the terrorist attack this week.

    What was their reaction?

    They revelled in it. Farage went on Fox to talk Britain down. This captures it rather well:
    https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/24/britain-alt-right-populists

    A strange article I thought when I read it. Plenty of people I know are bored of the stage managed "defiance" from media types and the futile light shows in other European capitals to show "unity". May not be the people John Harris or yourself know, but they exist.

    As for the Enoch Powell part, well Enoch predicted that mass immigration from the commonwealth would result in immigrant descendent communities dominating large parts of big cities and appalling acts of violence would follow. This week seemed a strange time to say that hadn't happened. The attacker may have grown up in Kent, but he was radicalised in jail and his anger festered in the Islamic capital of Britain.

    There is no doubt such people exist.

    Powell prophesised a breakdown in society. That has not happened.

    If you had been able to show people in 1968 the current society, they may well have described what we have as broken. When you are living through it the changes happen slowly and seem natural. A snapshot of now, shown to people then, would have dismayed most I reckon, in fact I doubt they would have believed it. If Enoch had simply shown a video of modern Britain he would have been accused of scaremongering

    He prophesised large parts of Wolverhampton, Birmingham and London would be almost exclusively populated by immigrants and their descendants. Do you deny it?

    You yourself have wondered on here over why Birmingham has become so much more Islamic over time. It is as Enoch forecast, with greater numbers comes less assimilation.
    Unlike you, I suspect, I know Wolverhampton well and I disagree with your assessment above - it's a diverse community but I disagree that 'large parts are exclusively populated by immigrants'. Everyone rubs along together pretty well in Wolves and long may it remain that way, despite the efforts of some on the far right to foment trouble.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
    Arguably the Speaker's Seat as well

    (personally I think that the Speaker should, on election, become the MP for the Palace of Westminster and there should be a by election in his/her previous constituency)
    You've mooted that before and I thought at the time that it's an extremely good idea.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited March 2017

    Gosh, Plato and Morty sinbinned and the Donald humiliated.

    It would be nice to think we've hit peak alt-right.

    Top trolling!
    I'll offer recompense in the form of an ew tip for Miss Tongabezi at Newbury (3.00). Hacked up at Ludlow and looks to be improving quickly. Although back down in trip and up another 10lb the likely strong pace should help and at 16-1 it's worth a couple of quid ew. DYOR etc.
    @Monksfield

    *tears up slip*

    Nope.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237
    GeoffM said:

    Gosh, Plato and Morty sinbinned and the Donald humiliated.

    It would be nice to think we've hit peak alt-right.

    Top trolling!
    I'll offer recompense in the form of an ew tip for Miss Tongabezi at Newbury (3.00). Hacked up at Ludlow and looks to be improving quickly. Although back down in trip and up another 10lb the likely strong pace should help and at 16-1 it's worth a couple of quid ew. DYOR etc.
    @Monksfield

    *tears up slip*

    Nope.
    Yeah. Didn't cope with the step up in class, and rapidly drying out ground probably didn't help either. Betting at Kelso going better this afternoon.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    3.9 million voters now with no representation in the Commons.

    That's not true. Everyone is represented, even if your MP comes from a party you didn't vote for.
    SF seats and Gorton are the only exceptions to that right now.
    I know what you say is correct, technically speaking.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2017
    test
This discussion has been closed.