Final message from Plato? "Tell Mike it was only politics. I always liked him."
Don't tell me Plato is banned now as well, what was the crime.
I seem too recall OGH issuing a warning about posting "fake news" and Plato's posts consisted of little else so I am assuming that might have had something to do with it but I'm not sure as I haven't read one of her diatribes for months.
Please forgive my Ignorance,
What does OGH stand for? I'm guessing its the Proprietor Mike Smithson, but does OGH stand for something, is there a back story?
Our Gracious Host
Although given how free he is being with the ban hammer right now I am beginning to have my doubts
I thought it was Our Genial Host?
This week it might be Our Grouchy Host (unless he is over the Mortimer incident)
Enough. My Saturday morning relax is over and I have a hard day's shopping to do.
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Sanctimonious crap. It never takes long
It's bollocks, though isn't it, Rog? She has views that not many of us agree with, but she gets no end of personal abuse on here, and as far as I see, she doesn't go in that hard on the perpetrators, just ignores them. She posts stuff that is a bit wacky, but it is from places that many of us don't go, and helps you to at least read a different perspective. She can't post in response to all the snide comments she is getting now, so if it makes you happy to carry on bullying her (and it is bullying, in the way that so many of your kind scream about on the internet) crack on.
I don't care. I loathe her posts and her racism and her prejudice but I couldn't care less whether she's banned or not. She doesn't add one jot to my knowledge or my enjoyent of anything nor I suspect yours. So why is it necessary for us to show what nice people we are by fake sactimony?
Perhaps so Roger.
However PB has never been an echo chamber for the prevailing mood. OGH has always striven to ensure a big tent policy. However he is rightly dischuffed when some posters choose to piss in his tent rather than outwith.
Even then Mike allows for potty training errors and allows back those that graduate to pull ups. What he will not tolerate are those that abuse the house rules routinely, egregiously or with a casual discourtesy that they would not expect in their own marquee.
A man after my own heart then! I can't disagree with a word you've said and an excellent piece of prose downthread (if I may say so).
Even aged 108 you are still one of the site's star posters
Have to agree Jack , you have been on fine form recently.
Form ? Form is temporary; class permanent - or so the aristocracy claim.
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Most of the comments I have seen are more wondering about why she was banned than having a pop at her, nor do I feel that her departure is any sort of "victory".
I used to get on quite well with her a few years back but over time I have moved a bit more left and she a bit more to the right and we no longer agree on much, but I do not wish her any ill-will.
You are agreeing with me nowadays Bev, you are going up in the world.
If this doesn't set a klaxon going Bev . . .
LOL, she knows it is true and will be well chuffed
That said, meaningless adjectives remain a problem. I remember once touring an egg farm and asking what the definition of "fresh egg" was. The manager laughed and said "it means 'egg'".
Look at it the other way round. Ask yourself what the route to the Elysee is for each of the other candidates. They're very tough. I reckon Fillon and Le Pen sould be into double figures; the two from the left far higher; the rest, frankly, name your price. That leaves Macron with at least an 80% chance. There's your value.
That's fair enough but I'm curious why bookies are offering 1/2 about a 80% chance.
Bookies largely reflect where the money goes - they have to be career-riskingly certain to put their own views against the flow of money, since they make profits simply by taking money and setting odds accordingly.
I think that quite a lot of people have a punt on Le Pen for the same reason as they punted on Wilders becoming PM - they don't especially understand the political scene in the country and just think a shot on the populist outsider must be a good bet.
A lot of Brits are betting on the favourite because he's been ahead in the second-round polls for a long time.
David's article is IMO exactly right in every detail.
Did you foresee the Tory plurality and majority in 2010 and 2015, and wins for Leave and Trump last year?
I foresaw the Tory plurality in 2010 (I was relieved only to lose by 0.4% myself, expected much worse). Didn't see the 2015 result coming until the last few days. Surprised by Leave, was never sure about Trump. In other words, a mixed record like most of us here.
But FWIW I do know Continental politics quite well.
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Sanctimonious crap. It never takes long
It's bollocks, though isn't it, Rog? She has views that not many of us agree with, but she gets no end of personal abuse on here, and as far as I see, she doesn't go in that hard on the perpetrators, just ignores them. She posts stuff that is a bit wacky, but it is from places that many of us don't go, and helps you to at least read a different perspective. She can't post in response to all the snide comments she is getting now, so if it makes you happy to carry on bullying her (and it is bullying, in the way that so many of your kind scream about on the internet) crack on.
I don't care. I loathe her posts and her racism and her prejudice but I couldn't care less whether she's banned or not. She doesn't add one jot to my knowledge or my enjoyent of anything nor I suspect yours. So why is it necessary for us to show what nice people we are by fake sactimony?
Perhaps so Roger.
However PB has never been an echo chamber for the prevailing mood. OGH has always striven to ensure a big tent policy. However he is rightly dischuffed when some posters choose to piss in his tent rather than outwith.
Even then Mike allows for potty training errors and allows back those that graduate to pull ups. What he will not tolerate are those that abuse the house rules routinely, egregiously or with a casual discourtesy that they would not expect in their own marquee.
A man after my own heart then! I can't disagree with a word you've said and an excellent piece of prose downthread (if I may say so).
Even aged 108 you are still one of the site's star posters
Have to agree Jack , you have been on fine form recently.
Thank you.
There's life in the (exceptionally) old dog yet ....
That said, meaningless adjectives remain a problem. I remember once touring an egg farm and asking what the definition of "fresh egg" was. The manager laughed and said "it means 'egg'".
Mr. B, funny you mention that. Still working on the pre-race article (there are lots of tempting bets), and Vettel 4.33 each way to win (third odds for top 2) is one of them.
I wonder if a back-and-hedge approach would work better. Hmm.
Anyway, I'm trying not to make it as long as the pre-qualifying blog but there's a lot to consider.
Yes well trot out the usual cartoon about precedents not having been broken before if you like but if Le Pen wins the first round she will have momentum and history on her side even if Macron is still the favourite
No she won't have history on her side. Sure it may be 1995 that was the last time the first round winner lost but when was the last time someone with a 20 point heads up poll lead lost? Are we talking more recently than 1995 or not?
"Poor British kids, come and serve our wanky over priced grub to posh kids, for nothing! We're terrified our cheap foreign labour will disappear because of Brexit, and we want to entice you to work for us, but don't want to pay you!"
Not much chance of getting locals off benefits or out of bed early for £7 an hour.
I dunno about that Malc. Maybe if firms like Pret struggle to recruit in the future, they might have to change something to make their jobs more appealing.
TFS, only so much you can pay someone to make a sandwich or serve a cup of coffee, but if there are vacancies it seems bizarre that we pay local people to stay in bed and import millions of immigrants who are happy to work hard and better themselves. It says something about teh moral fibre of this country, it is a pale imitation of itself. When I was a boy people were ashamed to be unemployed , now it is a lifestyle choice for many and for some a lucrative one. This country is pretty rotten at the core presently from grasping greedy people at the top to shameful lazy good for nothings at the bottom. Very depressing.
You almost sound like IDS there MalcG!
Could you think of a bigger insult, I am shocked
Somehow 'MalcolmG, the Quiet Man' doesn't quite ring true...
It's amazing what epithets marketers will slip in. "Fresh", "artisan", "designer". Apparently there's something called "fine" dining too. Doubtless in the same bracket as "fine" art. What some people will value to differentiate themselves from the dirty hordes! This is an aspect of bourgeois identity that marks out one northern European country in particular.
I have no trouble differentiating myself from the dirty hordes.
Actually, I blame the marketeers and the total drivel that many of them spout. Perhaps the solution is to ban adjectives. Of course I want a "Fresh sandwich" but the implication is that the other sandwiches are "not fresh". No one will be advertising "stale sandwiches" so the "fresh" is redundant.
Carry this forward and perhaps we can eliminate the purple prose that dominates some restaurant menus so that "Pancetta wrapped chicken with supreme sauce on a bed of puree pommes de terre" is abolished and replaced with "Chicken and mash with gravy"
This should be a post-brexit requirement. No more forrin muck!!!
That said, meaningless adjectives remain a problem. I remember once touring an egg farm and asking what the definition of "fresh egg" was. The manager laughed and said "it means 'egg'".
Kind of like, " what's a euro-communist ? ". " A communist. ".
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
"Poor British kids, come and serve our wanky over priced grub to posh kids, for nothing! We're terrified our cheap foreign labour will disappear because of Brexit, and we want to entice you to work for us, but don't want to pay you!"
Not much chance of getting locals off benefits or out of bed early for £7 an hour.
I dunno about that Malc. Maybe if firms like Pret struggle to recruit in the future, they might have to change something to make their jobs more appealing.
You almost sound like IDS there MalcG!
Could you think of a bigger insult, I am shocked
Somehow 'MalcolmG, the Quiet Man' doesn't quite ring true...
Not much chance of getting locals off benefits or out of bed early for £7 an hour.
.
TFS, only so much you can pay someone to make a sandwich or serve a cup of coffee, but if there are vacancies it seems bizarre that we pay local people to stay in bed and import millions of immigrants who are happy to work hard and better themselves. It says something about teh moral fibre of this country, it is a pale imitation of itself. When I was a boy people were ashamed to be unemployed , now it is a lifestyle choice for many and for some a lucrative one. This country is pretty rotten at the core presently from grasping greedy people at the top to shameful lazy good for nothings at the bottom. Very depressing.
You almost sound like IDS there MalcG!
Could you think of a bigger insult, I am shocked
Somehow 'MalcolmG, the Quiet Man' doesn't quite ring true...
People get banned for a bit, than usually let back unless they persist in whatever it was. It's Mike's site, and he can do what he likes with it.
Personally I think it's useful to have a right-wing poster who seems to quite like Trump, for balance and variety, so I hope plato will be back in due course. And she's sound on cats.
I wonder if the Tories' approach to the Brexit negotiations will run into similar problems as Trump did with healthcare. The Tory right will not be willing to compromise with the moderates, even if it means no deal being struck.
Mike Smithson is entitled to ban her although personally I have found Plato's posts informative and thoughtful. She has been Poster of the Year after all.
However Mike has in the past been reticent to issue red cards and most miscreants are allowed back on the field of play in due course. Perhaps that will be the case with @Plato, however I have no knowledge of her offence.
A few, a very few, have earned a black spot and rightly so.
Look at it the other way round. Ask yourself what the route to the Elysee is for each of the other candidates. They're very tough. I reckon Fillon and Le Pen sould be into double figures; the two from the left far higher; the rest, frankly, name your price. That leaves Macron with at least an 80% chance. There's your value.
That's fair enough but I'm curious why bookies are offering 1/2 about a 80% chance.
Bookies largely reflect where the money goes - they have to be career-riskingly certain to put their own views against the flow of money, since they make profits simply by taking money and setting odds accordingly.
I think that quite a lot of people have a punt on Le Pen for the same reason as they punted on Wilders becoming PM - they don't especially understand the political scene in the country and just think a shot on the populist outsider must be a good bet.
A lot of Brits are betting on the favourite because he's been ahead in the second-round polls for a long time.
David's article is IMO exactly right in every detail.
Did you foresee the Tory plurality and majority in 2010 and 2015, and wins for Leave and Trump last year?
I foresaw the Tory plurality in 2010 (I was relieved only to lose by 0.4% myself, expected much worse). Didn't see the 2015 result coming until the last few days. Surprised by Leave, was never sure about Trump. In other words, a mixed record like most of us here.
But FWIW I do know Continental politics quite well.
The interesting thing about Trump victory was if you stayed up all night and were on this site, then there was opportunity to bale out of Clinton in time to stave off the worst of the losses.
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Hello and welcome to commenting.
It's awful to say it, but I think terror attacks have reached a level where they're seen as just one of the risks of modern life, and one more or less doesn't change very much. In terms of personal risk for most of us they remain vastly less than things like crossing the road. People do expect governments to respond robustly but without hysteria (as to be fair Mrs May has done very well in Britain this week), and I'm not sure that extreme candidates really pick up much as a result.
I'm not sure I approve of taking a saw to your local park to cut down trees for logs, as Jeremy Vine suggests. Although I wouldn't pay £'18 per log in a shop either
I wonder if the Tories' approach to the Brexit negotiations will run into similar problems as Trump did with healthcare. The Tory right will not be willing to compromise with the moderates, even if it means no deal being struck.
This is why I still think it's odds-on that there won't even be any proper negotiations, let alone a "deal".
IMO, the EU are going to demand Britain commits in principle to paying some kind of "exit bill" (not the stupidly overinflated £50-60bn which is probably just an opening gambit, but something) before they even agree to sit down at the table. But the moment that there's talk of even a small amount of money, Tory backbenchers and the tabloids are going to start squealing.
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Hello and welcome to commenting.
It's awful to say it, but I think terror attacks have reached a level where they're seen as just one of the risks of modern life, and one more or less doesn't change very much. In terms of personal risk for most of us they remain vastly less than things like crossing the road. People do expect governments to respond robustly but without hysteria (as to be fair Mrs May has done very well in Britain this week), and I'm not sure that extreme candidates really pick up much as a result.
Exactly this. I think a lot of people are lured into taking a flutter on Le Pen on the belief that "she's only one terrorist attack away from the Presidency" but the unpleasant truth is that while terrorist atrocities are responsible for Le Pen riding as high as she is in the polls, it seems unlikely that many more people would switch their vote to her on the basis of "one more attack". It's awful to say it, but yes, it seems like terrorism is the new normal for now.
If there is value in Le Pen, it comes from there being a shy vote that isn't being picked up by the polls (but it would have to be much bigger than the shy Trump and shy Tory vote we've seen in the past to put her over the finish line), combined with her picking up momentum in the second round run off - a stumble from Macron or a scandal there combined with a shy vote could push her over the finish line - but it's still unlikely. Le Pen does consistently badly in second round polling.
Yes well trot out the usual cartoon about precedents not having been broken before if you like but if Le Pen wins the first round she will have momentum and history on her side even if Macron is still the favourite
No she won't have history on her side. Sure it may be 1995 that was the last time the first round winner lost but when was the last time someone with a 20 point heads up poll lead lost? Are we talking more recently than 1995 or not?
In terms of the leader in the first round normally winning the runoff she would have history on her side though as you say current polling for the runoff still makes Macron the favourite overall. Though if she wins round 1 and is head to head with Macron who knows what the Russians are keeping in reserve or what another big terrorist attack on French soil would do, especially as Fillon voters rate security as a more important issue for them than Macron voters
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Sanctimonious crap. It never takes long
It's bollocks, though isn't it, Rog? She has views that not many of us agree with, but she gets no end of personal abuse on here, and as far as I see, she doesn't go in that hard on the perpetrators, just ignores them. She posts stuff that is a bit wacky, but it is from places that many of us don't go, and helps you to at least read a different perspective. She can't post in response to all the snide comments she is getting now, so if it makes you happy to carry on bullying her (and it is bullying, in the way that so many of your kind scream about on the internet) crack on.
I don't care. I loathe her posts and her racism and her prejudice but I couldn't care less whether she's banned or not. She doesn't add one jot to my knowledge or my enjoyment of anything nor I suspect yours. So why is it necessary for us to show what nice people we are by fake sactimony?
I don't think anyone would ever insult you by placing you in the category of ''nice people''.
Thanks for that.......
A few months ago I was invited for dinner to the House of Commons by an MP and his partner. We had a really fun evening and he took me to all the interesting places around the old building and introduced me to many of his collegues and officials. Seeing it from an MP's point of view it was strangely not as I expected. less austere and pretty good banter. It was fun seeing lots of recognisable people and even their locker rooms.......
So the other day when the policeman and others were killed the geography was fresh in my mind. They're described as policemen but they're more 'meet and greet' and I wasn't at all surprised to hear they're unarmed.
To switch on to PB that evening and read two posters posting obsessionally about why Khan hadn't made a statement was just loathsome. It made me wonder what kind of morons were posting on here. Couldn't they see what had happened? If it had been my site I'd have banned both of them for life.
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Welcome.
I'm not sure it would. Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a ceiling vote and there must surely be few French voters who are now unaware of her stance on immigration/terrorism.
Movement at the margin would depend on Macron's response. Many have noted his "blank canvass" and early Blair like countenance, in which case he'd likely benefit as much from the "hope" agenda as much as Le Pen's "fear" strategy.
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Sanctimonious crap. It never takes long
It's bollocks, though isn't it, Rog? She has views that not many of us agree with, but she gets no end of personal abuse on here, and as far as I see, she doesn't go in that hard on the perpetrators, just ignores them. She posts stuff that is a bit wacky, but it is from places that many of us don't go, and helps you to at least read a different perspective. She can't post in response to all the snide comments she is getting now, so if it makes you happy to carry on bullying her (and it is bullying, in the way that so many of your kind scream about on the internet) crack on.
I don't care. I loathe her posts and her racism and her prejudice but I couldn't care less whether she's banned or not. She doesn't add one jot to my knowledge or my enjoyment of anything nor I suspect yours. So why is it necessary for us to show what nice people we are by fake sactimony?
I don't think anyone would ever insult you by placing you in the category of ''nice people''.
Thanks for that.......
A few months ago I was invited for dinner to the House of Commons by an MP and his partner. We had a really fun evening and he took me to all the interesting places around the old building and introduced me to many of his collegues and officials. Seeing it from an MP's point of view it was strangely not as I expected. less austere and pretty good banter. It was fun seeing lots of recognisable people and even their locker rooms.......
So the other day when the policeman and others were killed the geography was fresh in my mind. They're described as policemen but they're more 'meet and greet' and I wasn't at all surprised to hear they're unarmed.
To switch on to PB that evening and read two posters posting obsessionally about why Khan hadn't made a statement was just loathsome. It made me wonder what kind of morons were posting on here. Couldn't they see what had happened? If it had been my site I'd have banned both of them for life.
How appropriate to talk about banning people for life in the context of a terror attack on British democracy. You don't and never will get it i'm afraid.
Yes well trot out the usual cartoon about precedents not having been broken before if you like but if Le Pen wins the first round she will have momentum and history on her side even if Macron is still the favourite
No she won't have history on her side. Sure it may be 1995 that was the last time the first round winner lost but when was the last time someone with a 20 point heads up poll lead lost? Are we talking more recently than 1995 or not?
In terms of the leader in the first round normally winning the runoff she would have history on her side though as you say current polling for the runoff still makes Macron the favourite overall. Though if she wins round 1 and is head to head with Macron who knows what the Russians are keeping in reserve or what another big terrorist attack on French soil would do, especially as Fillon voters rate security as a more important issue for them than Macron voters
No she won't have history in her side as "leader in the first round" is less of a precedent than "overwhelming leader in the heads up". You can't just ignore everything that doesn't suit you and then claim history.
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Hello and welcome to commenting.
It's awful to say it, but I think terror attacks have reached a level where they're seen as just one of the risks of modern life, and one more or less doesn't change very much. In terms of personal risk for most of us they remain vastly less than things like crossing the road. People do expect governments to respond robustly but without hysteria (as to be fair Mrs May has done very well in Britain this week), and I'm not sure that extreme candidates really pick up much as a result.
I doubt the European public is just going to lump the current levels of terrorism. I'd imagine that they'll, sooner or later, start to elect lawmakers who offer solutions.
Miss DiCanio, that's why it's so dangerous for police, media, and politicians to not be straight. Talking about 'international terrorism' has shades of 'don't mention the faith'. The only politician I heard referring to Islamic extremism (directly) was Nuttall (apparently Fallon did too).
It's like the Wilders situation. If people feel there's a threat and the authorities aren't being open and honest about it then they'll look elsewhere, even if elsewhere involves more strident views than they'd like.
That's the danger*, I fear. We get more attacks, more mealy-mouthed bullshit, and it shifts the whole political scene in a way that helps the far right, because mainstream politicians won't be honest about the obvious threats posed by radical Islamic extremists.
*Danger to politics, I mean. Obviously there's terrorism too... Bit surprised we haven't had more attacks here, frankly.
Yes well trot out the usual cartoon about precedents not having been broken before if you like but if Le Pen wins the first round she will have momentum and history on her side even if Macron is still the favourite
No she won't have history on her side. Sure it may be 1995 that was the last time the first round winner lost but when was the last time someone with a 20 point heads up poll lead lost? Are we talking more recently than 1995 or not?
In terms of the leader in the first round normally winning the runoff she would have history on her side though as you say current polling for the runoff still makes Macron the favourite overall. Though if she wins round 1 and is head to head with Macron who knows what the Russians are keeping in reserve or what another big terrorist attack on French soil would do, especially as Fillon voters rate security as a more important issue for them than Macron voters
No she won't have history in her side as "leader in the first round" is less of a precedent than "overwhelming leader in the heads up". You can't just ignore everything that doesn't suit you and then claim history.
The winner of the first round normally wins the runoff is historical fact whether you like it or not and while I have consistently said Macron is still favourite based on current runoff polls we have not even got to the runoff yet and if it is a Le Pen v Macron runoff both will have to appeal to Fillon voters who put security as a top priority and while Macron will have Hamon voters behind him Le Pen can appeal to Dupont Aignan voters and also could make some inroads with Melenchon voters too
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Welcome.
I'm not sure it would. Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a ceiling vote and there must surely be few French voters who are now unaware of her stance on immigration/terrorism.
Movement at the margin would depend on Macron's response. Many have noted his "blank canvass" and early Blair like countenance, in which case he'd likely benefit as much from the "hope" agenda as much as Le Pen's "fear" strategy.
Previous attacks have boosted the support for the government, and if anything, weakened Le Pen.
However there is a little uncertainty here because the government isn't an option on the ballot paper. Valls has ruled out backing Hamon and Hollande has stayed neutral.
Yes well trot out the usual cartoon about precedents not having been broken before if you like but if Le Pen wins the first round she will have momentum and history on her side even if Macron is still the favourite
No she won't have history on her side. Sure it may be 1995 that was the last time the first round winner lost but when was the last time someone with a 20 point heads up poll lead lost? Are we talking more recently than 1995 or not?
In terms of the leader in the first round normally winning the runoff she would have history on her side though as you say current polling for the runoff still makes Macron the favourite overall. Though if she wins round 1 and is head to head with Macron who knows what the Russians are keeping in reserve or what another big terrorist attack on French soil would do, especially as Fillon voters rate security as a more important issue for them than Macron voters
Le Pen is a difficult one to judge from a betting perspective. At above 5 she is higher odds than she has been for a couple of months. From hereon in, you have to weigh the weight of money that will be coming in for Macron from hard-nosed bettors nearer the day against the weight of the money that will be generated from those less well versed in French politics who will be seduced into having a flutter by the inevitable "fear of a Le Pen victory" scare stories that will inevitably abound in the media.
For people who just do straight bets, Le Pen is not good value at her current price. For people who like to trade, then she might be a decent proposition
Miss DiCanio, that's why it's so dangerous for police, media, and politicians to not be straight. Talking about 'international terrorism' has shades of 'don't mention the faith'. The only politician I heard referring to Islamic extremism (directly) was Nuttall (apparently Fallon did too).
It's like the Wilders situation. If people feel there's a threat and the authorities aren't being open and honest about it then they'll look elsewhere, even if elsewhere involves more strident views than they'd like.
That's the danger*, I fear. We get more attacks, more mealy-mouthed bullshit, and it shifts the whole political scene in a way that helps the far right, because mainstream politicians won't be honest about the obvious threats posed by radical Islamic extremists.
*Danger to politics, I mean. Obviously there's terrorism too... Bit surprised we haven't had more attacks here, frankly.
Isn't there something revolting about a man like Nick Palmer, who voted to attack various Muslim countries and then invited their enraged survivors in, now telling us we'd better suck up the resulting endemic domestic terror ?
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
If Plato is banned, why do many of you feel the need to pop up and denigrate her? Admittedly, she has a certain style that is niche, but if she's been kicked off, you've won. Let it go.
Sanctimonious crap. It never takes long
:
I don't think anyone would ever insult you by placing you in the category of ''nice people''.
Thanks for that.......
A few months ago I was invited for dinner to the House of Commons by an MP and his partner. We had a really fun evening and he took me to all the interesting places around the old building and introduced me to many of his collegues and officials. Seeing it from an MP's point of view it was strangely not as I expected. less austere and pretty good banter. It was fun seeing lots of recognisable people and even their locker rooms.......
So the other day when the policeman and others were killed the geography was fresh in my mind. They're described as policemen but they're more 'meet and greet' and I wasn't at all surprised to hear they're unarmed.
To switch on to PB that evening and read two posters posting obsessionally about why Khan hadn't made a statement was just loathsome. It made me wonder what kind of morons were posting on here. Couldn't they see what had happened? If it had been my site I'd have banned both of them for life.
Perhaps you should think about your own comments, sometimes.
For example, not long ago, you regaled us with a story about how a German in a French Cafe had made a crack out about how nice France was - without the French. A bon mot which you appeared to agree with.
Did it occur to you that there are plenty of French people still alive, and quite possibly sitting in that cafe, who would have very good reasons to be very, very profoundly upset by such remarks, give the source? Readers of this blog as well...
I wonder what you would have made of, say, a British swell in a cafe in India making a similar remark about Indians.
Douglas Carswell quitting UKIP to become an independent is a first step to his rehabilitation. It does however leave Paul Nuttall’s leadership much diminished, if that was possible and very much the poorer..
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
whats the money on another UKIP leadership election before the end of 2017......or are they confident of picking up a seat in Gorton..........interesting timing, any idea why today?
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
A couple of very good articles in the Telegraph this morning.
Firstly, to cheer you up (well it made me laugh), Michael Deacon's ideas on how terrorists could, without firing a shot or hurting anyone, bring London to a standstill:
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Welcome.
I'm not sure it would. Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a ceiling vote and there must surely be few French voters who are now unaware of her stance on immigration/terrorism.
Movement at the margin would depend on Macron's response. Many have noted his "blank canvass" and early Blair like countenance, in which case he'd likely benefit as much from the "hope" agenda as much as Le Pen's "fear" strategy.
There is little evidence that Le Pen et al get a boost from terrorist attacks. What boosts such parties is the absence of policy or action to deal with such issues, by the normal parties of government.
Hence the approval for the government in the Netherlands putting Erdoğan back in his box, as he quite deserved by any rational standard.
Morning long time viewer first time commenter. Just wondering what wold be the effect if there was another major terror attack before the french election. I presume it would boost le pen vote
Welcome.
I'm not sure it would. Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a ceiling vote and there must surely be few French voters who are now unaware of her stance on immigration/terrorism.
Movement at the margin would depend on Macron's response. Many have noted his "blank canvass" and early Blair like countenance, in which case he'd likely benefit as much from the "hope" agenda as much as Le Pen's "fear" strategy.
There is little evidence that Le Pen et al get a boost from terrorist attacks. What boosts such parties is the absence of policy or action to deal with such issues, by the normal parties of government.
Hence the approval for the government in the Netherlands putting Erdoğan back in his box, as he quite deserved by any rational standard.
The difference in the Netherlands was it was a centre right party which won after taking a tougher line on security and immigration, in France Macron will be less able to do that against Le Pen and the centre right party's voters will be up for grabs in the runoff
"Like many of you, I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
There will probably not be a free trade deal in 2 years but bilateral agreements in a few areas with some continued EU budget contributions is much more likely
What happens to all those readies ukip get because of carswell being an mp?
I thought he refused to take them?
I thought they compromised on taking about £150k?
They're taking half their allowance I believe. Still a considerable sum of money for a party then of one MP, now no MPs.
and no MEPs in a couple of years. Laugh, I nearly died...
Indeed, Brexit has been great for destroying UKIP. No wonder Farage saw the writing on the wall and found punditry in the States a more promising future career path.
Douglas Carswell quitting UKIP to become an independent is a first step to his rehabilitation. It does however leave Paul Nuttall’s leadership much diminished, if that was possible and very much the poorer..
Carswell needs no rehabilitation. He was proved right at every turn. It is the Tory party who should be apologising to the country for decades of dishonesty over the EU.
No Short money for UKIP then? They must be close to having no pot to piss in.
Especially once they lose their MEPs as well in 2019. Plus with the split vote by Aaron Bank's "patriotic alliance", and the fact that Nuttall is clearly no Farage, UKIP are done for. Far less media time, Farage is too busy in the US to help out, the protest vote will move back to LDs or just won't vote, the old tories will return home, old Labour probably won't vote, and the BNPinBlazer types will form a new microscopic grouping.
Ukip have served their purpose, so he's probably right about that. The only hope they have of rising from the ashes is if the anti-democrats manage to subvert the process.
No Short money for UKIP then? They must be close to having no pot to piss in.
Especially once they lose their MEPs as well in 2019. Plus with the split vote by Aaron Bank's "patriotic alliance", and the fact that Nuttall is clearly no Farage, UKIP are done for. Far less media time, Farage is too busy in the US to help out, the protest vote will move back to LDs or just won't vote, the old tories will return home, old Labour probably won't vote, and the BNPinBlazer types will form a new microscopic grouping.
The BNPinBlazers types may remain but that's a pond of well under a million voters not 4 million and under FPTP isn't even saving your deposit territory across most of the nation.
Comments
Enough. My Saturday morning relax is over and I have a hard day's shopping to do.
Byeeee!
Form is temporary; class permanent - or so the aristocracy claim.
Support the business which provides the closest to what you want; at the right quality; at the right price; and at the right time.
But FWIW I do know Continental politics quite well.
There's life in the (exceptionally) old dog yet ....
Anyone know any anthropology students ....
Personally I think it's useful to have a right-wing poster who seems to quite like Trump, for balance and variety, so I hope plato will be back in due course. And she's sound on cats.
However Mike has in the past been reticent to issue red cards and most miscreants are allowed back on the field of play in due course. Perhaps that will be the case with @Plato, however I have no knowledge of her offence.
A few, a very few, have earned a black spot and rightly so.
It's awful to say it, but I think terror attacks have reached a level where they're seen as just one of the risks of modern life, and one more or less doesn't change very much. In terms of personal risk for most of us they remain vastly less than things like crossing the road. People do expect governments to respond robustly but without hysteria (as to be fair Mrs May has done very well in Britain this week), and I'm not sure that extreme candidates really pick up much as a result.
IMO, the EU are going to demand Britain commits in principle to paying some kind of "exit bill" (not the stupidly overinflated £50-60bn which is probably just an opening gambit, but something) before they even agree to sit down at the table. But the moment that there's talk of even a small amount of money, Tory backbenchers and the tabloids are going to start squealing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/john4london/status/845591720096083968
Betting PostF1: my pre-race ramble, including a tip, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/australia-pre-race-2017.html
Not a very exciting tip, but a tip, nevertheless.
I have known many of the former who lack it completely and many of the latter who have it to spare.
If there is value in Le Pen, it comes from there being a shy vote that isn't being picked up by the polls (but it would have to be much bigger than the shy Trump and shy Tory vote we've seen in the past to put her over the finish line), combined with her picking up momentum in the second round run off - a stumble from Macron or a scandal there combined with a shy vote could push her over the finish line - but it's still unlikely. Le Pen does consistently badly in second round polling.
A few months ago I was invited for dinner to the House of Commons by an MP and his partner. We had a really fun evening and he took me to all the interesting places around the old building and introduced me to many of his collegues and officials. Seeing it from an MP's point of view it was strangely not as I expected. less austere and pretty good banter. It was fun seeing lots of recognisable people and even their locker rooms.......
So the other day when the policeman and others were killed the geography was fresh in my mind. They're described as policemen but they're more 'meet and greet' and I wasn't at all surprised to hear they're unarmed.
To switch on to PB that evening and read two posters posting obsessionally about why Khan hadn't made a statement was just loathsome. It made me wonder what kind of morons were posting on here. Couldn't they see what had happened? If it had been my site I'd have banned both of them for life.
Perhaps, but I think that the French electorate would still simply vote against Le Pen. May help her chances, but I doubt it'd get her over the line.
Out of interest where has Scott P gone with his Tweets?
Someone needs to see whether Malc's account has been hacked! :;)
I'm not sure it would. Le Pen is the marmite candidate with a ceiling vote and there must surely be few French voters who are now unaware of her stance on immigration/terrorism.
Movement at the margin would depend on Macron's response. Many have noted his "blank canvass" and early Blair like countenance, in which case he'd likely benefit as much from the "hope" agenda as much as Le Pen's "fear" strategy.
It's like the Wilders situation. If people feel there's a threat and the authorities aren't being open and honest about it then they'll look elsewhere, even if elsewhere involves more strident views than they'd like.
That's the danger*, I fear. We get more attacks, more mealy-mouthed bullshit, and it shifts the whole political scene in a way that helps the far right, because mainstream politicians won't be honest about the obvious threats posed by radical Islamic extremists.
*Danger to politics, I mean. Obviously there's terrorism too... Bit surprised we haven't had more attacks here, frankly.
However there is a little uncertainty here because the government isn't an option on the ballot paper. Valls has ruled out backing Hamon and Hollande has stayed neutral.
For people who just do straight bets, Le Pen is not good value at her current price. For people who like to trade, then she might be a decent proposition
#westminster......give me a break.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39393213
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39393213
You heard it here third!
The rat rats.
Independent within UKIP
Now just an Independent
I will not be switching parties, nor crossing the floor to the Conservatives, so do not need to call a by election, as I did when switching from the Conservatives to UKIP. I will simply be the Member of Parliament for Clacton, sitting as an independent
I will leave UKIP amicably, cheerfully and in the knowledge that we won."
http://www.talkcarswell.com/
BREAKING: Ukip
More seriously I seemed to remember him commenting he was off to trump-land. Am guessing they don't have Twitter there ;/)
BBC 2mins ago!
Bet he rejoins the Tories just before the 2020 election (somehow JUST missing the timeframe where he'd have to call a byelection).
Firstly, to cheer you up (well it made me laugh), Michael Deacon's ideas on how terrorists could, without firing a shot or hurting anyone, bring London to a standstill:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/03/24/terrorists-will-never-defeat-london-unless-try/
Secondly, a very sensible piece on the role of religion in fermenting terrorism by Michael Nazir-Ali:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/try-might-cannot-discount-role-religion-atrocities-reform/
Hence the approval for the government in the Netherlands putting Erdoğan back in his box, as he quite deserved by any rational standard.
Lord Farage and Nutall MP would work.
Do UKIP get Short Money now?
I can't see it.