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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hangi

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  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    SeanT said:

    fpt for ChaosOdin

    When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.

    His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.

    And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc

    Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.

    Enjoy it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFxjnUPRwx4
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017
    The number of views of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's interview walkout video at Facebook is now 11 million. This guy is running an impressive campaign. Expect surprises in the run-up to the whole-spectrum open primary, or "first round" as they call it.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    I am sure that the SNP would have a post independance referendum on an EU application that would keep all sides happy

    That would be very unlikely. Where would they stop? Hold one on the monarchy? One on NATO membership? Why not, if this is the start of a long period as an independent country, a new dawn? They wouldn't want to give people ideas. They'd be loath to hold any referendums in the first five years of independence.

  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Macron is promising to bring back conscription!

    Goodnight.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    @AndyJS

    Baked beans are carb rich, so you'll need to balance it out. As you're on a microbudget, try getting some cheese and eggs, which are equally cheap. You can boil the eggs or scramble them, and if you can afford bread you can have cheese on toast (if you can't, scrape bits of cheese off and add it to the baked beans). In extremis, you can have tins of beans and sausages, which are only a bit more expensive.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    viewcode said:

    @AndyJS

    Baked beans are carb rich, so you'll need to balance it out. As you're on a microbudget, try getting some cheese and eggs, which are equally cheap. You can boil the eggs or scramble them, and if you can afford bread you can have cheese on toast (if you can't, scrape bits of cheese off and add it to the baked beans). In extremis, you can have tins of beans and sausages, which are only a bit more expensive.

    Don't know if @AndyJS is kidding or not but if he is skint, we should all chip in and give him some dough... his EU ref spreadsheet was prob worth 7 figures to PB
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    FPT
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Quidder, JK Rowling got repeatedly turned down too.

    Publishers, especially large ones, are very conservative and risk averse. Self-publishing does remove them as strict gatekeepers, but it's very hard to make any money writing (don't let Mr. T fool you, there are thousands of struggling writers for every mid-list author, and hundreds of them for every A-list author).

    There are probably 100,000 pro or semi-pro writers in the UK. Probably 1000 of them make a good living, i.e. over £50,000 a year?

    Probably 100, at most, make £250,000 a year or more: so just 1 in 1000 writers makes very serious dosh.

    Probably 10 make a million a year, or more. And are just stupidly rich.

    So other than JK and yourself, who are the other 8 ;-)
    Probably Robert Harris, Neil Gaiman, the Tolkien Estate, among others mentioned.
    Here's the global list

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-highest-paid-authors-in-the-world-in-2016-2016-9/#14-george-rr-martin--71-million-95-million-3

    James Patterson at the top there, with a fairly impressive £71 million in one year.
    Nora Roberts has written more than 215 novels

    Jesus!
    It's rude to make fun of people's names, but I was delighted for Wikipedia to inform me that her first husband was Ronald Aufdem-Brinke, which is an A++ surname.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Jack Monroe, who has been in the news a bit lately, started her career specialising in recipes for meals-you-can-eat-while-totally-and-utterly-skint. Had some surprisingly good ideas too. Whatever you think of their political/social views, might be worth looking up to add a bit of variety to the diet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    “So you’ve got this ridiculous, I think deceitful proposition from Nicola Sturgeon. She’s saying to the people of Scotland, we must drag you back to a place you don’t want to go, to answer a question that you’ve already answered, I just didn’t like that answer, on the grounds of leaving Europe – which we’re going to do anyway, and we might not even go back in.”

    Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-tories-attack-snp-over-deceitful-proposition-1-4397363
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    An independent Scotland would not inherit UK military assets, the SNP’s defence spokesman has said in a major policy U-turn.

    In another ditching of 2014 policy, it was revealed to the party’s conference that plans to set up a separate Scottish intelligence agency are being scrapped in favour of close working with the existing UK setup.


    https://thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/389045/snp-ditches-white-paper-policies-on-independence-defence-and-security/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    RoyalBlue said:

    The Scots will stay. Ruth will fight a much more 'gloves off' campaign than Darling.

    Second that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That just leaves a Unilateral Declaration of Independence, a nuclear option floated by one conference delegate at a fringe meeting on Friday afternoon. The SNP, however, simply isn’t that daring. Clapping in the House of Commons is about as radical as they get; their days of direct action and (properly) disrupting parliament were long ago jettisoned in favour of respectability.

    So that leaves the final and most likely option following Wednesday’s Holyrood vote, yet more sound and fury. Nationalists are generally good at this and can, if necessary, keep it up for several years, which they might well have to do if Mrs May sticks to her guns about not even discussing a Section 30 order until after Brexit has “bedded in”, whatever that might mean.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15167344.David_Torrance__Prepare_for_a_long__slow_dance_around_the_timing_of_an_independence_referendum/?ref=rss
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    A majority of Scots (52%) reported feeling more British than European. For just under half (24% of all respondents), the gap was small (with British identity beating European identity by just one or two points). But this is a majority nonetheless. And less than a third of Scots (30%) felt more European than British. If Indyref#2, whenever it happens, turns into a choice between a European or a British future, therefore, the emotional landscape of identity might well push a majority of Scots to choose the UK. Leaving the EU has increased the risk that the UK will break apart. But, paradoxically, it might also be one of the things that eventually keeps the country together.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/could-europe-prevent-the-break-up-of-britain/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292

    Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?

    But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.

    If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.

    That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
    They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.

    May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
    No, Sturgeon has picked a fight she's likely to lose! Unlike Theresa May, Sturgeon doesn't have a majority, but she does face a far more effective opposition at Holyrood right now just as all those SNP chickens come home to roost on the bread and butter issues of the NHS, Education, Policing, Justice etc. And having been in power at Holyrood for a decade now, its getting harder and harder to blame anyone else for this SNP Governments domestic failures. And not only is this SNP Government now regularly beginning to lose votes in the Holyrood Parliament, its done sod all legistlatively in the last twelve months to fix the problems its created.

    Just this week, John Swinney the SNP Education Minister at Holyrood faced a staffing crisis in one of the secondary schools in his own constituency! No wonder Sturgeon wants to divert attention away from the ever increasing failures of her own adminstration with another divisive constitutional row. Yes the case for Independence is full of holes, the biggest being a total lack of appetite among the Scottish electorate to rerun the divisive 2014 Indy campaign.

    As for a distracted Westminster Government focusing on Brexit, what ever the outcome, the deal that Westminster Government gets with the EU is going to impact on both Scotland and the rest of UK economically in the short term. So its vital that the Westminster Government gets the best deal for the whole UK. So contrast Theresa May's Government ruling out a snap GE before Brexit for party political advantage while Sturgeon tries to throw both Scotland and the UK into further constitutional turmoil in a clearly desperate self interested bid to gain some partisan political gain.

    Anyone else spotted the irony of the claim that an extended Tory Government at Westminster is as good a reason as any to vote Yes in another referendum while the SNP's continued obsession with Independence above all else is detoxing the Tories in Scotland faster than it has done in over two decades.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    Or Sturgeon's shall we say vague policy on EU membership just now? Presumably she's in favour of them being stripped of their residency rights?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    fitalass said:

    Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?

    But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.

    If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.

    That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
    They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.

    May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
    the SNP's continued obsession with Independence above all else is detoxing the Tories in Scotland faster than it has done in over two decades.
    If only the Tories would stop banging on about Education.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Cyan said:

    I am sure that the SNP would have a post independance referendum on an EU application that would keep all sides happy

    That would be very unlikely. Where would they stop? Hold one on the monarchy? One on NATO membership? Why not, if this is the start of a long period as an independent country, a new dawn? They wouldn't want to give people ideas. They'd be loath to hold any referendums in the first five years of independence.

    I think the SNP are only interested in the answer to one question - and since the voters didn't get the answer right first time round, want to ask it again...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292

    fitalass said:

    Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?

    But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.

    If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.

    That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
    They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.

    May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
    the SNP's continued obsession with Independence above all else is detoxing the Tories in Scotland faster than it has done in over two decades.
    If only the Tories would stop banging on about Education.....
    The SNP plan a two day debate at Holyrood before a vote on another Indy Ref, as someone pointed out, when did we last have a two day debate on education...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    Bojabob said:

    Bojabob said:

    I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.

    I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.

    Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.
    After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next government

    It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
    Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.
    An interesting bit of centrist policy here too. I note that Liz and Nicky did a few Womans day events together:

    https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/843472011758354434
    Is there any real difference left now between Osborneites and Blairites?
    The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons. 'Twas ever thus.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Cyclefree said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    SeanT said:

    This is incredible. The last deterrent to false rape accusations is about to be removed. Rape complainants are already anonymous for life, now they won't even have to go to court. They will be video-taped somewhere else

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/19/victims-rape-spared-ordeal-cross-examination-court

    ted.

    from 'beyond reasonable doubt' to a balance of probabilities test. Because we all agree we need to get the conviction rate up and thats the main thing, right?

    When you put it in those terms, it sounds quite problematic - I can actually see the last suggestion being made, if it has not already.
    Yes, I think the effect would be to reduce conviction rates. The opposite of what is intended.
    Guess we'll just have to wait and see. Much depends on how it works in practice.


    No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.

    God Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
    Agree completely, but unfortunately they are the government and they are implementing it with the agreement of the judiciary so we have no choice but to just wait and see what happens. Not like we can stop it. Not like lawyers and judges are willing to take a stand against the govt. Where does this obsession with improving the conviction rate end exactly? specially selected juries? changing the beyond reasoanable doubt test? creation of a category of half innocence (eg was Ched Evans really declared innocent?)

    I'm pretty certain it would be no different if it was a labour or conservative government. The only hope is that at some point the pendulum starts to swing back from the current state of moral panic and hysteria to a more sensible place.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ChaosOdin said:

    This is the first time in a while that I remember the SNP being slightly confused on their message. On the EU and on currency their position is so tortured that their politicians are finding it hard to get out without muddying the waters.

    For tactical reasons I can see why Sturgeon announced now. I think it was now or never.

    But they were clearly caught short on preparing their campaign and policies, and they are clearly having trouble using the EU as justification for a new indyref while at the same time knowing there must be a membership gap.

    More precisely, I think, they don't wait the question to be EU or UK for Scotland? Even though the pretext for the new referendum call was Scotland voting to remain in the EU. They will want people in Scotland to accept there is another referendum coming and move back to their favored question of Should Scotland be an independent country?

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?

    But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.

    If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.

    That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
    They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.

    May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
    the SNP's continued obsession with Independence above all else is detoxing the Tories in Scotland faster than it has done in over two decades.
    If only the Tories would stop banging on about Education.....
    The SNP plan a two day debate at Holyrood before a vote on another Indy Ref, as someone pointed out, when did we last have a two day debate on education...
    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/843142556716351489
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
    http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

    Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?

    But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.

    If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.

    That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
    They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.

    May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
    the SNP's continued obsession with Independence above all else is detoxing the Tories in Scotland faster than it has done in over two decades.
    If only the Tories would stop banging on about Education.....
    The SNP plan a two day debate at Holyrood before a vote on another Indy Ref, as someone pointed out, when did we last have a two day debate on education...
    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/843142556716351489
    Can we get a word count on Theresa May's use of 'precious'?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Still smarting from Angela's 'triumph' in Washington, are you?

    Wisely biding her time - How we laughed.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
    http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

    Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.
    Let's hope the farmers in Belgium don't get in the way this time... :smiley:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
    http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

    Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.
    Let's hope the farmers in Belgium don't get in the way this time... :smiley:
    Or Japanese farmers......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited March 2017

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Still smarting from Angela's 'triumph' in Washington, are you?

    Wisely biding her time - How we laughed.....
    The Trump administration is already claiming her ideas as its own. As a wise man once said, it's amazing what you can accomplish if you don't care who gets the credit.

    https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/843388538028769281
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Honest, it wisnae me. A big Tory did It and ran away

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/843447667145490432
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Honest, it wisnae me. A big Tory did It and ran away

    I wonder if Ruth Davidson also endorses Euan McColm's views on May and Osborne.

    As May stumbles towards Brexit (did any government ever seem less sure-footed on a major issue?), Osborne and Khan might prove a particularly problematic double act.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-osborne-raises-the-standard-for-opposition-1-4396784
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    I'm pleasantly surprised to learn that you're " intensely relaxed " about the " beginning of the end " of Brussels rule.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
    http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

    Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.
    Let's hope the farmers in Belgium don't get in the way this time... :smiley:
    The Japanese-EU trade talks are quite well advanced. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an FTA deal (requiring only QMV!) between Japan and the EU this year. (I would expect EFTA to follow soon after.)
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Honest, it wisnae me. A big Tory did It and ran away

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/843447667145490432

    McColm's first paragraph is delicious.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    unamazed at all the same old voices droning on endlessly about Independence

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.
    there needs to be a new electorate in Scotland, the current bunch keep getting the answer wrong
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.
    there needs to be a new electorate in Scotland, the current bunch keep getting the answer wrong
    Brecht it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    Very true and about time.They should go for a federal state with an English Parliament but I think they have left it to late now .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.
    there needs to be a new electorate in Scotland, the current bunch keep getting the answer wrong
    Brecht it?
    lol
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Alistair said:

    Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

    unamazed at all the same old voices droning on endlessly about Independence
    For reasons which need not detain us, they'd rather not talk about education.....
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,802

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,173

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    English nationalism, Bartlett's funding formula and free Universities / prescriptions will make it happen..

    The fact that the free Universities are suffering due to lack of funding compared to English Universities is irrelevant here. The issue is that the Scottish can be shown to be better off than the English and that still isn't good enough for them...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Yorkcity said:

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    Very true and about time.They should go for a federal state with an English Parliament but I think they have left it to late now .
    Probably. I was never a fan of a federal solution, but it seems the only option, albeit a bit late.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    and if it happened Labour will be down to 15% never mind 20%
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,802
    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    They'll try but there will be plenty of us out to hang the blame where it really belongs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Only a fool would be complacent about the Union when Scotland's dominant party's raison d'etre is independence but I do think that the SNP are in a much more difficult place than they were in 2014.

    In 2014 they relied very heavily on Oil money (the idea that it was ever a bonus is a post facto rationalisation) to sell hope to people with very little; they had a clear majority at Holyrood; they had a more obviously posh English PM who fitted the "tory" mould; they had Alastair Darling as their opponent; they had an exceptionally skilled leader who could tempt both the left and the right and they had the idea that rUK would be in the EU so as long as they were completely free trade with rUK was guaranteed.

    They did not have 10 years of severe underperformance in Holyrood to explain away; a scarily large deficit; problems in both financial services and oil; a rejuvenated Tory party and a population which has, in large part, frankly had enough of this. The idea of Scotland once again spending the next 3-4 years contemplating its own navel to the exclusion of anything genuinely useful is deeply unpopular.

    Does this mean Scotland cannot vote Yes? Absolutely not. The election of Trump shows that people can believe pretty much anything for long enough to vote. But it will be much harder as their initial faltering steps have shown. The May elections will be interesting. My guess is that the independence parties will be in the low 40s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    They'll be fine. They will still get millions more votes than any third party option and most of those angry with it don't seem like they are transferring permanently to a new party brand, so can be recovered quickly if they make the right choices.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GeoffM said:

    The tax burden shouldered by Britain's wealthiest has almost trebled since the 1970s, analysis of historic data reveals - further undermining the Conservative's reputation as a "low tax" party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tax-burden-wealthy-has-trebled-since-1970s-telegraph-analysis/

    You'd argue that it was "low" in comparison with the other options on offer.

    Still eye-wateringly horrible though. It's a disgrace that any govt should believe that stealing over half of your income was in any way morally acceptable.
    GeoffM said:

    The tax burden shouldered by Britain's wealthiest has almost trebled since the 1970s, analysis of historic data reveals - further undermining the Conservative's reputation as a "low tax" party.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tax-burden-wealthy-has-trebled-since-1970s-telegraph-analysis/

    You'd argue that it was "low" in comparison with the other options on offer.

    Still eye-wateringly horrible though. It's a disgrace that any govt should believe that stealing over half of your income was in any way morally acceptable.
    The Tories shouldn't be focused on the top 10%. They can look after themselves. Personally I objected to 52% (more than half seems wrong). 47% is a little greedy but reducing it isn't a priority. Long term i'd like to see it back at 42% which feels like a "fair" contribution.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    DavidL said:


    My guess is that the independence parties will be in the low 40s.

    Each? My gods, it's a landslide!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    I see uncut, hardly favourable to the leadership, is saying corbyns office is interfering in the selection for the gorton by election. Doesn't seem hugefrom the description, though I don't know why it would matter in a seat so hard to lose, yet it would make a change from his previous approach.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/03/17/when-it-comes-to-selections-meet-the-new-boss-same-as-the-old-boss/
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
    I do but May will have the support of most of the British media which will see it in boxing terminology.Therefore there will be no knockouts but a points win ,with the judges been the English media.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Good morning, everyone.

    There's nothing quite like getting a cover and interior approved, making a minor change to the cover, then getting the interior (entirely unchanged) rejected, making the instructed change, getting sent the wrong proof, resubmitting the files, then getting another red light despite following the instruction previously given.

    If any of you would like someone murdering, do get in touch. I'm in the mood.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    Good morning, everyone.

    There's nothing quite like getting a cover and interior approved, making a minor change to the cover, then getting the interior (entirely unchanged) rejected, making the instructed change, getting sent the wrong proof, resubmitting the files, then getting another red light despite following the instruction previously given.

    If any of you would like someone murdering, do get in touch. I'm in the mood.

    If it’s any consolation, Mr D I was about post grateful thanks to you and other PB-ers for the helpful comments in response top my question about books yesterday.

    And your problems are noted and filed away as a warning.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This has a couple of interesting nuggets on surveillance hopping.

    http://truepundit.com/confession-of-fbi-insider-backs-trump-we-tamper-with-wiretaps-evidence-can-eavesdrop-on-your-phones-with-no-warrant/

    I've been reading a few IC stories from ex operatives - many are fascinating glimpses, Dan Bongino is ex SS and worth a read if you come across him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    DavidL said:

    My guess is that the independence parties will be in the low 40s.

    What do you predict the 'Unionist' parties will be on?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    King Cole, I should stress, this is unusual. When (if, perhaps) the book in question is ever released you'll understand what I mean. Normally, it's a lot smoother (especially for e-books).

    And you're welcome :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
    But the Wail, the Bun etc will blame that dastardly Johnny Foreigner. At great length.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

    Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.


    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

    Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.
    I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.
    Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you? :smiley:
    http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

    Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.
    The EU presently has no free trade deal with the US, Australia, New Zealand, India, Saudi Arabia or China to mention just a few
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2017

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    The tories chose to play politics with the union when they printed that Miliband-in-Salmond's-pocket poster back in 2015.

    They understood the kippers better than the kippers understood themselves.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    The sooner Scotland becomes independent the better
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    Clearly not at the moment given the 14% lead for No yesterday with Panelbase
  • Am I right inunderstanding that wee Jimmie Krankie has decided to go for another referendum on the grounds that Scotland might be leaving the EU - but simultaneously has abandoned plans for an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU because, err, most Scots aren't very big on the idea of it?
    Maybe that nice Mrs May should insist that the referendum question references the EU.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Pong said:

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    The tories chose to play politics with the union when they printed that Miliband-in-Salmond's-pocket poster back in 2015.

    They understood the kippers better than the kippers understood themselves.
    That poster was the defining moment of the 2015 election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
    But the Wail, the Bun etc will blame that dastardly Johnny Foreigner. At great length.
    Yes, but if there's a lot of issues, a lot of problems, May will face consequences. I don't doubt that other than something extreme happening it may not be too big a consequence, there will be a natural desire to rally round the UK in the face of our negotiating opponents, I'll go along with that, but at a certain level a failure to get a good deal will also blowback on May, particularly if there are clear indications of errors from her team.

    It's like with Corbyn - his defenders point to what is in fairness a mostly hostile media as a reason for his not succeeding at various things. But by this point that is no defence as he needs to overcome challenges. So with May, she will face a hard task, but at some stage if she appears not to have risen to the challenge she will be punished.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is marvellous

    English Russia
    BBC expert in Russia https://t.co/0xvpulc7ia
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    F1: still no spread points market. Beginning to wonder if that'll only go up after the first race. Anyway, I'll keep my eyes peeled and have some suggestions ready if it's before then.

    On-topic: that cuts both ways. If the perception is the UK has been shafted by the EU, won't those floating between Yes and No in Scotland conclude the same could happen to an independent Scotland, only with a far bigger trading partner?

    If you lose a finger to a woodchipper, thrusting your whole hand in is not a reasonable reaction.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Patrick, that was my understanding, but I think yesterday Sturgeon was performing the left foot in part of the dance.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Pong said:

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    The tories chose to play politics with the union when they printed that Miliband-in-Salmond's-pocket poster back in 2015.

    They understood the kippers better than the kippers understood themselves.
    That poster was the defining moment of the 2015 election
    Fallon the defence secretary went in very hard to .Saying that Ed Milliband would stab Britain's national interest in the back.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    PlatoSaid said:

    This has a couple of interesting nuggets on surveillance hopping.

    http://truepundit.com/confession-of-fbi-insider-backs-trump-we-tamper-with-wiretaps-evidence-can-eavesdrop-on-your-phones-with-no-warrant/

    I've been reading a few IC stories from ex operatives - many are fascinating glimpses, Dan Bongino is ex SS and worth a read if you come across him.

    I rather suspect that’s people going rogue. Doesn’t mean that the wiretap or whatever was ordered, or that any info was passed on.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
    But the Wail, the Bun etc will blame that dastardly Johnny Foreigner. At great length.
    Yes, but if there's a lot of issues, a lot of problems, May will face consequences. I don't doubt that other than something extreme happening it may not be too big a consequence, there will be a natural desire to rally round the UK in the face of our negotiating opponents, I'll go along with that, but at a certain level a failure to get a good deal will also blowback on May, particularly if there are clear indications of errors from her team.

    It's like with Corbyn - his defenders point to what is in fairness a mostly hostile media as a reason for his not succeeding at various things. But by this point that is no defence as he needs to overcome challenges. So with May, she will face a hard task, but at some stage if she appears not to have risen to the challenge she will be punished.
    But if she does rise to the challenge
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. City, if Corbyn is Labour leader at the next election, it will be interesting to see how the Conservatives, and others, play it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    DavidL said:

    My guess is that the independence parties will be in the low 40s.

    What do you predict the 'Unionist' parties will be on?
    Mid-forties, IMHO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    A smarter Theresa May could delay triggering Article 50 for a few weeks and hold a snap referendum in Scotland on the EU or UK question. Although there are risks there too.

    May will lose significant control over a whole range of issues as soon as Article 50 is invoked. In retrospect she may come to regret giving other actors so long to prepare their strategies.
    Under what circumstances would you be happy with May invoking Article 50?
    I'm intensely relaxed about Article 50. It will be the beginning of the end.
    Aye, this week marks peak May. She has to start getting off the various fences she's astride now and turn all that triumphant but meaningless sloganising into outcomes.

    Some of which will be painful.
    I do not think so it will be just blame the foreigners for the next few years.As any difficulty in negotiations has to be them been unreasonable.
    You dont think the eu negotiators will blame any difficulties on us being unreasonable, whether or not that is fair?

    Regardless, governments almost always blame any issues on others, so of course any problems will be blamed on the other side, the question is how much people believe that. May will escape blame on some less than positive outcomes, but all?
    But the Wail, the Bun etc will blame that dastardly Johnny Foreigner. At great length.
    Yes, but if there's a lot of issues, a lot of problems, May will face consequences. I don't doubt that other than something extreme happening it may not be too big a consequence, there will be a natural desire to rally round the UK in the face of our negotiating opponents, I'll go along with that, but at a certain level a failure to get a good deal will also blowback on May, particularly if there are clear indications of errors from her team.

    It's like with Corbyn - his defenders point to what is in fairness a mostly hostile media as a reason for his not succeeding at various things. But by this point that is no defence as he needs to overcome challenges. So with May, she will face a hard task, but at some stage if she appears not to have risen to the challenge she will be punished.
    But if she does rise to the challenge
    Then i hope she reaps the rewards.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited March 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."

    They're always good for a laugh, extremists.

    Further proof, as if more were needed, that left and right wing are losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."

    They're always good for a laugh, extremists.

    Further proof, as if more were needed, that left and right wing are losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
    Also, I love how someone can be defended as a moderate when part of their appeal is supposed to be how they break from the norm and offer radical solutions.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."

    They're always good for a laugh, extremists.

    Further proof, as if more were needed, that left and right wing are losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
    Yes, they're merely sticks to beat people with, they have no meaning
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?

    Floating around the internet for months, helped along by reports of higher than usual spending in CCHQ and 'reports' of parties being prepared for emergency selections just in cases, I think.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

    Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?

    Sunday Times column. Seems regional agents and candidates in Tory party are preparing themselves for May 4th. Whether they have been given the nod to do so, or doing it out of own volition, is not clear. Seems they may just be sniffing the wind and smelling a possible election.

    There are a load of reasons now to go for an early GE.

    Only one against: May said she wont.

    So there wont be one.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."

    They're always good for a laugh, extremists.

    Further proof, as if more were needed, that left and right wing are losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
    The most barking descriptor is pro Europeans describing themselves as centrists. They're on the extremes!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?

    Floating around the internet for months, helped along by reports of higher than usual spending in CCHQ and 'reports' of parties being prepared for emergency selections just in cases, I think.
    Twitter seems to be alive with journalists at the moment convinced it'll be the 4th (though this seems far too soon)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Darren Grimes
    Momentum spokesperson on R4: "I consider myself to be a moderate socialist. Jeremy Corbyn is moderate. @tom_watson is quite right-wing."

    They're always good for a laugh, extremists.

    Further proof, as if more were needed, that left and right wing are losing their usefulness as political descriptors.
    Yes, they're merely sticks to beat people with, they have no meaning
    Corbyn is moderate. If you are comparing him against the Trot loons and Stalin-lovers from SWP and so on, who now involved in Momentum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?

    Sunday Times column. Seems regional agents and candidates in Tory party are preparing themselves for May 4th. Whether they have been given the nod to do so, or doing it out of own volition, is not clear. Seems they may just be sniffing the wind and smelling a possible election.

    There are a load of reasons now to go for an early GE.

    Only one against: May said she wont.

    So there wont be one.
    There are more reasons than that. Not least because if the only reason were that May said she won't, but there were all those other good reasons to have one, she would change her mind, should change her min in fact, since sticking to a POV when there are, by your reckoning, no reasons to do so, would be downright silly.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    Pong said:

    Scottish nationalism has made independence possible. English nationalism will make it happen.

    The tories chose to play politics with the union when they printed that Miliband-in-Salmond's-pocket poster back in 2015.

    They understood the kippers better than the kippers understood themselves.
    It worked because it was true.
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