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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hangi

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  • justin124 said:

    No election on May 4th then!

    Indeed. - Adam Boulton’s presumption, getting the better of him on this occasion.
    I would expect that an Autumn election is possible if the likes of Morgan, Soubry and others cause problems and / or problems with the election expenses. 4th May was never going to happen - too close to serving A50
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    I read an article about successful lottery winners. Successful in the sense they didn't fritter it away because they couldn't cope. You buy the nicest house in your area, a couple of top of the range cars, go on a couple of upmarket cruises. The rest goes on keeping a horse. They are successful precisely because they don't have much imagination.
    Most are not successful, at least in the US, and the money destroys many a good life.

    That is unimaginable to me. I would not need to live lavishly, but with a fund to provide an annual income to explore my areas of interest without having to sell those ideas to funders - that would be wonderful.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,873
    edited March 2017

    Where are those who said Brexit would never get triggered by the end of March?

    Millions of them surely
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    But http://lottery.reevo.com/# informs me I'm up £1166 by not playing the lottery with those numbers :>
    Worth a try... I used this site which suggests you are £1,898 down:

    http://lottery.merseyworld.com/cgi-bin/lottery?C=B&X=1&Y=0&D=1&R=1&A=Tables&M=0&B=8+17+23+39+46+47
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    But http://lottery.reevo.com/# informs me I'm up £1166 by not playing the lottery with those numbers :>
    I'm up £980 by not playing

    Might go in again now the losing streak is over
    That you Martin Gale?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    But if you could buy 14 million tickets when the 70 mill comes up you probably end up ahead.......

    So the fact you're buying one makes no difference to the value !
    It's been done in Ireland:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/how-to-make-a-killing-on-the-lottery-1322272.html
    Looks like a lot of work and risk to clear £68,000 before costs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    But http://lottery.reevo.com/# informs me I'm up £1166 by not playing the lottery with those numbers :>
    I'm up £980 by not playing

    Might go in again now the losing streak is over
    Gambling fallacy #23234 DUE a win !
  • ChaosOdinChaosOdin Posts: 67
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Seeing as we already talked about income yesterday... My total net worth is about 9 million, according to valuations of my company taken out when I bought out a minor shareholder last year. (And assuming I could find a buyer, well who knows?!)

    It isn't spendable cash obviously, but it doesn't change your life that much really. You still speak to the same people, drive on the same roads, etc. My elderly next door neighbour has a knighthood instead of a bull terrier these days, but he generally talks about the same stuff: the weather and the bins.

    Not that I would give it up, I wouldn't say it was pointless... far from it... but it doesn't really make that much difference.

    I will stop talking about money now...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    edited March 2017
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Capital doesn't count.
    edit: "no one has much use for it".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Thought I'd spotted the opportunity of the week, then realised I was looking at Hamilton Scotland, not New Zealand weather forecast.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    Tell me youre lying?

    What is the website where you can check?
    The stuff of nightmares.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Matt, Dragon Age: Origins was my first Bioware game. It remains the best.

    Mr. Lennon, that makes sense. High primes pave the way to a minutely increased chance of being a solo winner!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Capital doesn't count.
    edit: "no one has much use for it".
    Not sure what your point is?

    The security of having a pre-tax income of £350,000 per year would worth a huge amount
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    You have a cardinal scale of utility? How Victorian.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    I notice no-one is suggesting supporting either their children to get on to the ladder or (ahem) paying for their elderly parents to go on an expensive cruise.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
    You seem to have hooked @isam by accident though!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    Mr. Matt, Dragon Age: Origins was my first Bioware game. It remains the best.

    Mr. Lennon, that makes sense. High primes pave the way to a minutely increased chance of being a solo winner!

    29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47 would be a prize shared amongst a great many mathematicians.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,688
    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Capital doesn't count.
    edit: "no one has much use for it".
    Not sure what your point is?

    The security of having a pre-tax income of £350,000 per year would worth a huge amount
    Acquiring capital is not the same as "spending".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    I notice no-one is suggesting supporting either their children to get on to the ladder or (ahem) paying for their elderly parents to go on an expensive cruise.

    What children ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Someone should invent a computer program or app which allows rich people to give their money away equally to every family/person in the country. So for example if you had £66m to spare, everyone would get £1 each.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    There is a wonderful Dorothy Parker short story 'That Standard of Living' in this vein....:

    https://www.esuus.org/esu/programs/english_in_action/newyork/BookClub/The_standard_of_Living_by_Dorothy_Parker_and_Girls_in_summer_dresses_by_Irwin_Shaw:en-us.pdf
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

    Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.
    I wonder if Nick will be taking his pigs (if they haven't been finally solved) Anne and Frank with him? Which would be worse for the bien pensant, Nick gurning over the garden fence or the smell of pig shit?

    Edit: I see the piggies are long ago consumed. Still, Nick has hilariously transferred the names to his two rotweillers.
    Golly. I knew he was horrible, but not that horrible.
    Apparently, he went to Cambridge University.
    Can't produce Prime Ministers but can produce traitors & Nick Griffin......
    Stanley Baldwin went to Cambridge!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Capital doesn't count.
    edit: "no one has much use for it".
    Not sure what your point is?

    The security of having a pre-tax income of £350,000 per year would worth a huge amount
    Acquiring capital is not the same as "spending".
    I think @Sean_F was thinking about "allocating" a windfall rather than "spending" it.
  • ChaosOdinChaosOdin Posts: 67
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    I enjoy being able to explore my hobbies to their maximum (I just had a massive koi pond fitted, I have a full room of Warhammer stuff and a couple of nice cars). I also like being able to take friends and family on holiday, buy my mum and dad stuff that makes their lives easier (car and flat etc).

    I also set up a little social enterprise on the side in the field of children's social care which is doing quite well.

    I haven't reached the point where I feel like more money is pointless yet, but if I never get any richer I will be happy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
    You seem to have hooked @isam by accident though!
    Haha no. I thought he was almost certainly on a wind up.. but it made me check my numbers I admit that

    People with that level of money (£70m) should be personally arranging for food to be sent en masse to famine riven countries. Reminds me of the tragic story of Peter Green from Fleetwood Mac. Once they were worth a few quid, he decided they had enough and should spend the rest personally delivering sandwiches to Biafra.. the others wouldnt have it, and he was later diagnosed as schizophrenic.. but it does strike me that his idea was sane and the others were mad
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    I suspect most people will filter this out. The SNP is doing what it always does and those that think it good will continue to do so, as will those that think it bad.

    The first sentence can certainly be challenged. "The Scottish people can best determine the form of government best suited to their needs". We did that just two years ago and decided for the opposite of what the SNP proposes. Therefore they don't have a mandate.

    This isn't a trivial point. The fact we previously made a decision against will matter.
    Rubbish , they stated in their manifesto that if Brexit came along it would be a major change and result in need for a referendum. That has happened and as usual they are keeping their promise. Unlike other parties they do what they say.
    "They" aren't the Scottish people, who have actually decided on this. I accept from the SNP's point of view they can keep pushing because they have never accepted the decision made by the Scottish people. It is just one factor in a complicated situation but it is relevant.
    They are the government charged by the Scottish people to look after their interests. They think this materially changes the deal that people agreed to in 2014 and it needs reaffirmed by the Scottish people if that changes their minds that what they voted for is now being taken away from them against their wishes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Pulpstar, surely mathematicians wouldn't play the lottery?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    There is a wonderful Dorothy Parker short story 'That Standard of Living' in this vein....:

    https://www.esuus.org/esu/programs/english_in_action/newyork/BookClub/The_standard_of_Living_by_Dorothy_Parker_and_Girls_in_summer_dresses_by_Irwin_Shaw:en-us.pdf
    That's a good story, with a decent message. I'm just too pragmatic for my own good :smiley:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    I suspect most people will filter this out. The SNP is doing what it always does and those that think it good will continue to do so, as will those that think it bad.

    The first sentence can certainly be challenged. "The Scottish people can best determine the form of government best suited to their needs". We did that just two years ago and decided for the opposite of what the SNP proposes. Therefore they don't have a mandate.

    This isn't a trivial point. The fact we previously made a decision against will matter.
    Rubbish , they stated in their manifesto that if Brexit came along it would be a major change and result in need for a referendum. That has happened and as usual they are keeping their promise. Unlike other parties they do what they say.
    "They" aren't the Scottish people, who have actually decided on this. I accept from the SNP's point of view they can keep pushing because they have never accepted the decision made by the Scottish people. It is just one factor in a complicated situation but it is relevant.
    They are the government charged by the Scottish people to look after their interests. They think this materially changes the deal that people agreed to in 2014 and it needs reaffirmed by the Scottish people if that changes their minds that what they voted for is now being taken away from them against their wishes.
    But if you get independence you leave the EU - whilst claiming the referendum is ot keep you in the EU......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Someone should invent a computer program or app which allows rich people to give their money away equally to every family/person in the country. So for example if you had £66m to spare, everyone would get £1 each.
    There are much more impactful things you can do with excess capital.

    I can't talk about it yet, but I think the team have done something really special in unlocking a great opportunity for a relatively small investment to prove the concept.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017
    BBC Daily Politics Soap Box today is about the affect on mentally disabled people of the minimum wage.. The mother (Rosa Monckton) of a lady with downs syndrome on how it stops them getting work. Didn't a Tory say something similar a couple of years ago and get an absolute hammering Angela Eagle on QT went for his jugular?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    isam said:

    BBC Daily Politics Soap Box today is about the affect on mentally disabled people of the minimum wage.. The mother (Rosa Monckton) of a lady with downs syndrome on how it stops them getting work. Didn't a Tory say something similar a couple of years ago and get an absolute hammering Angela Eagle on QT went for his jugular?

    Yes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    I see the government has plumped for march 29th for A50, so just after the rome treaty celebrations on the 25th - a small conciliatory gesture towards the EU perhaps?

    which means March 29th 2019 will be the day that Britain sails outward to rule the waves / slopes off into a corner to die alone (delete as applicable)

    I wonder if there will ever be some sort of holiday to mark the occasion (or maybe that would be June 23rd)?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    isam said:

    BBC Daily Politics Soap Box today is about the affect on mentally disabled people of the minimum wage.. The mother (Rosa Monckton) of a lady with downs syndrome on how it stops them getting work. Didn't a Tory say something similar a couple of years ago and get an absolute hammering Angela Eagle on QT went for his jugular?

    Actually quite an interesting argument on both sides, alas, I don't have time to follow it up today.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    For history geeks - where did Silicon Valley come from, and the security angle

    https://youtu.be/8uA2bLrl_9Q
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    justin124 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

    Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.
    I wonder if Nick will be taking his pigs (if they haven't been finally solved) Anne and Frank with him? Which would be worse for the bien pensant, Nick gurning over the garden fence or the smell of pig shit?

    Edit: I see the piggies are long ago consumed. Still, Nick has hilariously transferred the names to his two rotweillers.
    Golly. I knew he was horrible, but not that horrible.
    Apparently, he went to Cambridge University.
    Can't produce Prime Ministers but can produce traitors & Nick Griffin......
    Stanley Baldwin went to Cambridge!
    Since WWII its 10-0 to Oxford.....
  • Bioware's on a downward spiral.

    They've been owned by EA for a long while now, its inevitable that the curse of EA would destroy them. (see Maxis, Westwood, Origin etc)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.

    Ah yes.. Eric Pickles has just mentioned it was Lord Freud. Rosa Monckton is saying she has had the most awful trolling over her Spectator article, but has been sustained by the emails from other parents in the same boat.
  • I see the government has plumped for march 29th for A50, so just after the rome treaty celebrations on the 25th - a small conciliatory gesture towards the EU perhaps?

    which means March 29th 2019 will be the day that Britain sails outward to rule the waves / slopes off into a corner to die alone (delete as applicable)

    I wonder if there will ever be some sort of holiday to mark the occasion (or maybe that would be June 23rd)?

    Would be as sensitive as an Orangemen's parade on the anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne in Catholic areas of Ireland.

    Oh wait...
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
    Depends on your view of the London housing market, surely? You might not actually want to live in it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,735
    Mr. 4u, indeed, the old assimilation problem.

    Anyway, I need to be off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    FF43 said:

    I suspect most people will filter this out. The SNP is doing what it always does and those that think it good will continue to do so, as will those that think it bad.

    The first sentence can certainly be challenged. "The Scottish people can best determine the form of government best suited to their needs". We did that just two years ago and decided for the opposite of what the SNP proposes. Therefore they don't have a mandate.

    This isn't a trivial point. The fact we previously made a decision against will matter.
    Rubbish , they stated in their manifesto that if Brexit came along it would be a major change and result in need for a referendum. That has happened and as usual they are keeping their promise. Unlike other parties they do what they say.
    "They" aren't the Scottish people, who have actually decided on this. I accept from the SNP's point of view they can keep pushing because they have never accepted the decision made by the Scottish people. It is just one factor in a complicated situation but it is relevant.
    They are the government charged by the Scottish people to look after their interests. They think this materially changes the deal that people agreed to in 2014 and it needs reaffirmed by the Scottish people if that changes their minds that what they voted for is now being taken away from them against their wishes.
    But if you get independence you leave the EU - whilst claiming the referendum is ot keep you in the EU......
    No guarantee that we leave , could be interim measures and eventual rejoining full membership etc. EU would be very keen.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
    Depends on your view of the London housing market, surely? You might not actually want to live in it.
    I just mean that I can think of hundreds of places I would buy before London. It was buying for personal use not investment in previous comments.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
    You seem to have hooked @isam by accident though!
    Haha no. I thought he was almost certainly on a wind up.. but it made me check my numbers I admit that

    People with that level of money (£70m) should be personally arranging for food to be sent en masse to famine riven countries. Reminds me of the tragic story of Peter Green from Fleetwood Mac. Once they were worth a few quid, he decided they had enough and should spend the rest personally delivering sandwiches to Biafra.. the others wouldnt have it, and he was later diagnosed as schizophrenic.. but it does strike me that his idea was sane and the others were mad
    There's actually a school of ethics which says that you should give as much of your income to the Third World as possible. Of course, if you gave it all away you'd starve and couldn't hold down a job, so the idea is that you keep enough for yourself only so that it won't impinge upon your capacity to donate - other than that you give it all away.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872

    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.

    Shame then that his party and leader disowned the comments. Not sure a headline made them sound any more horrendous.

    '“You make a really good point about the disabled. There is a group where actually, as you say, they’re not worth the full wage.”
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
    £5m will get you a nice house anywhere - London is my bailiwick but fundamentally I was thinking of a principal residence.
  • Guardian ICM poll (changes from a fortnight)

    Conservatives: 45% (+1)

    Labour: 26% (-2)

    Ukip: 10% (- 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% ( +1)

    Greens: 4% (-1)

    Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
    Depends on your view of the London housing market, surely? You might not actually want to live in it.
    I just mean that I can think of hundreds of places I would buy before London. It was buying for personal use not investment in previous comments.
    Fair enough. Each to his own.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772

    Guardian ICM poll (changes from a fortnight)

    Conservatives: 45% (+1)

    Labour: 26% (-2)

    Ukip: 10% (- 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% ( +1)

    Greens: 4% (-1)

    Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

    Budget Omnishamble impact..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.

    Shame then that his party and leader disowned the comments. Not sure a headline made them sound any more horrendous.

    '“You make a really good point about the disabled. There is a group where actually, as you say, they’re not worth the full wage.”
    According to the mother of a mentally disabled woman, other people in her situation agree with her, but nothing ever gets done about it because virtue signallers scweaming

    So they sit staring at the tv all day instead of engaging with the rest of society
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    It depends what lifestyle you want.

    Based upon what I'm seeing on this thread, people want a nice family home in a nice area, to be able to educate their kids well, and provide for them, have a nice bolthole or secluded holiday home in an area they like - far from the maddening crowds - to be able to have a bit of fun, and to be able to do satisfying work without long and tedious commutes.

    All of that is fair enough.
  • Guardian ICM poll (changes from a fortnight)

    Conservatives: 45% (+1)

    Labour: 26% (-2)

    Ukip: 10% (- 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% ( +1)

    Greens: 4% (-1)

    Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

    Martin Boon, director of ICM, says that, as well as being the highest Tory lead since the general election, a 19-point Conservative lead has only been beaten by three polls in the Guardian/ICM series going back to 1983: in two polls giving them a 20-point lead, in 1983 and 2008, and in one giving them a 21-point lead, in June 1983.

    Boon says the Electoral Calculus website suggests these figures would translate into a Conservative majority of 140. And he says the detailed figures are also gruesome for Labour.

    It’s so desperate for Labour that it’s also nearly a ‘full house’ across standard demographics. Only members of non-white communities offer up a Labour lead over the Tories, with DEs tied. When 18-24s split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives, Labour can only be in some sort of historic mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    I don't think that's really true.
    There is some truth in the adage that money is power; the most obvious example being the billionaires in the US who fund PACS... or even their own presidential campaigns. One might argue about the amount of power they wield (though not so much the orange one), but that they significantly influence policy is undeniable.

    Then, of course, those who channel their megalomania to more constructive ends, from Elon Musk through to Bill Gates.

    If I had a couple of billion in the bank, I could certainly find constructive ways to spend it without giving it away.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    There is an awful lot of daydreaming going on here today!

    "If I were a rich man..."
  • Guardian ICM poll (changes from a fortnight)

    Conservatives: 45% (+1)

    Labour: 26% (-2)

    Ukip: 10% (- 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% ( +1)

    Greens: 4% (-1)

    Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

    Budget Omnishamble impact..
    I know these are MOE changes but still

    ICM asked people which team they thought was better able to manage the economy properly. The results were:

    Theresa May and Philip Hammond: 44% (up 1 from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: 11% (down 1)

    Neither: 31% (up 2)

    Don’t know: 14% (down 3)

    Conservative lead: 33 points (up 2)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Someone should invent a computer program or app which allows rich people to give their money away equally to every family/person in the country. So for example if you had £66m to spare, everyone would get £1 each.
    There are much more impactful things you can do with excess capital.

    I can't talk about it yet, but I think the team have done something really special in unlocking a great opportunity for a relatively small investment to prove the concept.
    A sponsor or philanthropist funding, managing and running their own special project or public work (which could cost them in the tens or hundreds of millions) can be very effective.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
    You seem to have hooked @isam by accident though!
    A veritable bonus ball.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    edited March 2017
    isam said:

    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.

    Shame then that his party and leader disowned the comments. Not sure a headline made them sound any more horrendous.

    '“You make a really good point about the disabled. There is a group where actually, as you say, they’re not worth the full wage.”
    According to the mother of a mentally disabled woman, other people in her situation agree with her, but nothing ever gets done about it because virtue signallers scweaming

    So they sit staring at the tv all day instead of engaging with the rest of society
    Cameron was virtue signalling about his personal experience of having a disabled child?

    Perhaps politicians (whose words are their currency) should be smart enough not to say really stupid things that distract from the issue.

    Well done on the virtue signallers scweaming btw, top work.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/843814550457802753

    After a terrible set of headlines on NIC for Hammond & May, the public raise 2 fingers, to McDonnell and Corbyn.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    AndyJS said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    Someone should invent a computer program or app which allows rich people to give their money away equally to every family/person in the country. So for example if you had £66m to spare, everyone would get £1 each.
    It would probably end up back in the hands of the same rich person inside 18 months. If you punted it to the Exchequer it would have a similar highly limited effect.

    Best thing is to target a meaningful amount to a special purpose project to make a specific life-changing difference, and hold delivery accountable to KPIs and tangible benefits realisation.
  • I owe Mike a thread, I think I might do a thread on this

    Ukip seen as most dishonest of the main political parties, poll suggests.

    Conservatives

    Honest: 19%

    Dishonest: 26%

    Net score: -7

    Labour

    Honest: 13%

    Dishonest: 24%

    Net score: -11

    Lib Dems

    Honest: 11%

    Dishonest: 25%

    Net score: -14

    Ukip

    Honest: 8%

    Dishonest: 38%

    Net score: -30
  • Let this sink in.

    "When 18-24s split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives, Labour can only be in some sort of historic mess."
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Re: disabled employment.

    My wife is disabled, but is very clever and has multiple qualifications. She's been looking for work for two years now.

    We've filled in multiple application forms and always tick the 'disabled' box - She always get rejected and she has only managed one interview in two years. In at least one case, we got a rejection email twenty four hours after submission. The only problem was she submitted it sometime online on a Saturday night - it was rejected on Sunday evening. I'm not saying it was an auto rejection, and my wife firmly believes someone must've been working on Sundays and read the application form (she's a bit naive like that).

    The NMW is a disaster for her. Why would any employer in their right mind employ someone for £15,000 per year to do a job when they can employ someone else who will take half the time to do it?

    I appreciate some disabilities aren't that noticable, or can be managed relatively easily but some can't, and my wife's can't. Anyone employing her would have to spend huge sums of money making workplace adjustments before she even came through the door.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    Mr. Isam, jein. The press tore him to shreds, from memory, the QT audience was actually quite sympathetic as were others when the situation was explain beyond a (horrendous-sounding) headline.

    Shame then that his party and leader disowned the comments. Not sure a headline made them sound any more horrendous.

    '“You make a really good point about the disabled. There is a group where actually, as you say, they’re not worth the full wage.”
    According to the mother of a mentally disabled woman, other people in her situation agree with her, but nothing ever gets done about it because virtue signallers scweaming

    So they sit staring at the tv all day instead of engaging with the rest of society
    Perhaps politicians (whose words are their currency) should be smart enough not to say really stupid things that distract from the issue.
    Well done on the virtue signallers scweaming btw, top work.
    Cheers, couldn't find a waycist angle

    Well he was asked a question and what he said aligned with the thoughts of parents of people with disabilities

    Of course, the passengers of the outwage bus saw a chance to wet their pants and seized it. Political capital at the expense of the disabled, oh well at least they feel good about themselves
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    It depends what lifestyle you want.

    Based upon what I'm seeing on this thread, people want a nice family home in a nice area, to be able to educate their kids well, and provide for them, have a nice bolthole or secluded holiday home in an area they like - far from the maddening crowds - to be able to have a bit of fun, and to be able to do satisfying work without long and tedious commutes.

    All of that is fair enough.
    I know it sounds counter intuitive but I don't think 'unlimited' money makes people really happy. I find that having to save for a 'treat' heightens the expectation and eventual pleasure. If everything is instantly available, the joy is reduced as it becomes commonplace.

    It may be a sign of my background but I remember when a tin of John West salmon was a real treat to be had on holiday!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Where are those who said Brexit would never get triggered by the end of March?

    That reminds me, I have Betfair bets on Article 50 trigger date. But I can't check at work. Can anyone tell me what the boundaries are?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    edited March 2017
    Blue_rog said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    It depends what lifestyle you want.

    Based upon what I'm seeing on this thread, people want a nice family home in a nice area, to be able to educate their kids well, and provide for them, have a nice bolthole or secluded holiday home in an area they like - far from the maddening crowds - to be able to have a bit of fun, and to be able to do satisfying work without long and tedious commutes.

    All of that is fair enough.
    I know it sounds counter intuitive but I don't think 'unlimited' money makes people really happy. I find that having to save for a 'treat' heightens the expectation and eventual pleasure. If everything is instantly available, the joy is reduced as it becomes commonplace.

    It may be a sign of my background but I remember when a tin of John West salmon was a real treat to be had on holiday!
    Surely you pivot from financial goals to other goals, such as fitness, health or other hobbies. You therefore get the expectation and eventual pleasure from this instead.
  • Alistair said:

    Where are those who said Brexit would never get triggered by the end of March?

    That reminds me, I have Betfair bets on Article 50 trigger date. But I can't check at work. Can anyone tell me what the boundaries are?
    End of June I think. I know I get £15 either way

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I owe Mike a thread, I think I might do a thread on this

    Ukip seen as most dishonest of the main political parties, poll suggests.

    Conservatives

    Honest: 19%

    Dishonest: 26%

    Net score: -7

    Labour

    Honest: 13%

    Dishonest: 24%

    Net score: -11

    Lib Dems

    Honest: 11%

    Dishonest: 25%

    Net score: -14

    Ukip

    Honest: 8%

    Dishonest: 38%

    Net score: -30

    Hang on - tories most honest - truly the end of days
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    You can always play reverse lottery: pick six numbers, don't buy a ticket and pray like mad they don't come up.
    I picked a set of numbers 8, 17, 23, 39, 46, 47 for no good reason in the first few days of the lottery. I have no idea how much I'd be ahead or behind on those !
    Haven't played in years.
    Well, you'd have had a 1/3 share of a £9.6m jackpot in June 2003. Other than that, not much to write home about.
    That's mean.
    Ah, but I knew @Pulpstar wouldn't believe me. I wouldn't have tried it if I'd thought he might have.
    You seem to have hooked @isam by accident though!
    Haha no. I thought he was almost certainly on a wind up.. but it made me check my numbers I admit that

    People with that level of money (£70m) should be personally arranging for food to be sent en masse to famine riven countries. Reminds me of the tragic story of Peter Green from Fleetwood Mac. Once they were worth a few quid, he decided they had enough and should spend the rest personally delivering sandwiches to Biafra.. the others wouldnt have it, and he was later diagnosed as schizophrenic.. but it does strike me that his idea was sane and the others were mad
    There's actually a school of ethics which says that you should give as much of your income to the Third World as possible. Of course, if you gave it all away you'd starve and couldn't hold down a job, so the idea is that you keep enough for yourself only so that it won't impinge upon your capacity to donate - other than that you give it all away.
    Whilst well-intentioned I'm not convinced at how effective throwing money at the third world actually is other than emergency disaster relief.

    It seems far more important to achieve political stability, internal/external security, decent land rights, minimise government corruption and pro-market policies.

    Then you let PPP and private sector investment let-rip, supplemented by NGO activity on public services infrastructure particularly on education and health.
  • Floater said:

    I owe Mike a thread, I think I might do a thread on this

    Ukip seen as most dishonest of the main political parties, poll suggests.

    Conservatives

    Honest: 19%

    Dishonest: 26%

    Net score: -7

    Labour

    Honest: 13%

    Dishonest: 24%

    Net score: -11

    Lib Dems

    Honest: 11%

    Dishonest: 25%

    Net score: -14

    Ukip

    Honest: 8%

    Dishonest: 38%

    Net score: -30

    Hang on - tories most honest - truly the end of days
    They've been ahead on this type of questions before under Dave too.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Lyuben Vachkov‏ @VLubev
    Great for Labour shadow cabinet to get away from Westminster Bubble with away day trip to Central London.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Where are those who said Brexit would never get triggered by the end of March?

    That reminds me, I have Betfair bets on Article 50 trigger date. But I can't check at work. Can anyone tell me what the boundaries are?
    End of June I think. I know I get £15 either way

    Sweet, I assumed Spring 2017 so I'm all good.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    edited March 2017
    To use a well known psephological term, Labour under Corbyn are fucked. The next GE will the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar War.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Blue_rog said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    The talk last night of earnings and what to do with 6 figures wages was a bit surreal. My family income is circa 40 grand a year, and we live comfortably enough!
    Ours is somewhat more, but you're quite right. I'm sure it's great to have a sufficiently large income that you don't need to work for a living, and there's fun to be had in investment, managing an estate, running a business, or charitable work, but other than those things, I'd have thought possessing lots of wealth would be subject to a law of diminishing returns. A £300 bottle of wine should be better than a £20 bottle of wine, but not fifteen times better. A £60,000 cruise should be better than a £5,000 cruise, but not 12 times better and so on.
    It depends what lifestyle you want.

    Based upon what I'm seeing on this thread, people want a nice family home in a nice area, to be able to educate their kids well, and provide for them, have a nice bolthole or secluded holiday home in an area they like - far from the maddening crowds - to be able to have a bit of fun, and to be able to do satisfying work without long and tedious commutes.

    All of that is fair enough.
    I know it sounds counter intuitive but I don't think 'unlimited' money makes people really happy. I find that having to save for a 'treat' heightens the expectation and eventual pleasure. If everything is instantly available, the joy is reduced as it becomes commonplace.

    It may be a sign of my background but I remember when a tin of John West salmon was a real treat to be had on holiday!
    Money doesn't make you happy. It can stop you from being abjectly miserable.

    Basically, it gives you options but not fulfilment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Guardian ICM poll (changes from a fortnight)

    Conservatives: 45% (+1)

    Labour: 26% (-2)

    Ukip: 10% (- 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% ( +1)

    Greens: 4% (-1)

    Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

    5...4...3...2...1...Justin Short Straws tells us that because of the Grimsby Local Council elections of 1936, that Labour really isn't in that bad a position and can still win in 2020.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2017
    Sky as part of the story of Mao-mentum have been showing a load of footage of their demos. It is just me or are they more white than the Lib Dem parliamentary party?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Offtopic: Whoever sold Snapchat on day one is basically laughing now :

    https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=sNAPCHAT+value&*

    As predicted here.

    Again.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "An extremist who stored his secrets on USB sticks disguised as cufflinks is facing jail after admitting being an ISIS terrorist.

    Samata Ullah, from Cardiff, admitted membership of ISIS and confessed to being involved in terrorist training and preparation of terrorist acts.

    Then 34-year-old was a key member of a group calling itself the 'Cyber Caliphate Army' and gave other members of ISIS advice on how to communicate using sophisticated encryption techniques.

    When his home was raided last October, Ullah was found with 30 metal cufflinks from a batch he had bought on a Chinese website, using the name Cardiff Trader.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4331030/Extremist-terror-files-USB-disguised-cufflinks.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Offtopic: Whoever sold Snapchat on day one is basically laughing now :

    https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=sNAPCHAT+value&*

    As predicted here.

    Again.

    Another totally over-valued tech company with no unique tech in the fickle and overstaturated social media space. What could possibly go wrong.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    nunu said:

    Lyuben Vachkov‏ @VLubev
    Great for Labour shadow cabinet to get away from Westminster Bubble with away day trip to Central London.

    At least they aren't meeting in Islington.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188

    To use a well known psephological term, Labour under Corbyn are fucked. The next GE will the electoral equivalent of the Anglo-Zanzibar War.

    For a second there I thought you wrote Anglo-Zulu War.

    But Islandlwana of course, not Rorke's Drift.
  • From The Guardian

    Last week the SNP was asking for an assurance that the devolved governments would be given advance notice of the triggering of article 50. Now the devolved governments, along with everyone else, have been given advance notice, but the SNP’s Brexit minister, Michael Russell, seems to be complaining that he wasn’t given advance notice of the advance notice.

    https://twitter.com/Feorlean/status/843798760320876544
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,851
    edited March 2017

    There's actually a school of ethics which says that you should give as much of your income to the Third World as possible. Of course, if you gave it all away you'd starve and couldn't hold down a job, so the idea is that you keep enough for yourself only so that it won't impinge upon your capacity to donate - other than that you give it all away.

    Whilst well-intentioned I'm not convinced at how effective throwing money at the third world actually is other than emergency disaster relief.

    It seems far more important to achieve political stability, internal/external security, decent land rights, minimise government corruption and pro-market policies.

    Then you let PPP and private sector investment let-rip, supplemented by NGO activity on public services infrastructure particularly on education and health.
    But achieving political stability, internal/external security, decent land rights, minimising government corruption and pro-market policies don't just happen by themselves. They are all things one can influence. They are all things where one could give money to appropriate organisations who would promote those things (in addition to giving money to improve public services infrastructure, particularly education and health). So that's not really an argument against donating the money, just over precisely how to do it.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2017
    New thread >>>
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    nunu said:

    Lyuben Vachkov‏ @VLubev
    Great for Labour shadow cabinet to get away from Westminster Bubble with away day trip to Central London.

    LOL
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831

    There's actually a school of ethics which says that you should give as much of your income to the Third World as possible. Of course, if you gave it all away you'd starve and couldn't hold down a job, so the idea is that you keep enough for yourself only so that it won't impinge upon your capacity to donate - other than that you give it all away.

    Whilst well-intentioned I'm not convinced at how effective throwing money at the third world actually is other than emergency disaster relief.

    It seems far more important to achieve political stability, internal/external security, decent land rights, minimise government corruption and pro-market policies.

    Then you let PPP and private sector investment let-rip, supplemented by NGO activity on public services infrastructure particularly on education and health.
    But achieving political stability, internal/external security, decent land rights, minimising government corruption and pro-market policies don't just happen by themselves. They are all things one can influence. They are all things where one could give money to appropriate organisations who would promote those things (in addition to giving money to improve public services infrastructure, particularly education and health). So that's not really an argument against donating the money, just over precisely how to do it.
    "give money to appropriate organisations"

    ie the white man?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,256
    edited March 2017
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Very occasionally the lottery becomes value to play - a lucky dip on a multiple rollover might just have an expected return higher than 100%...

    Obviously the variance is massive still (Which is the appeal !)

    As a curmudgeon, I view the lottery as tax on poor people, but I only play it when it is a multiple rollover.
    A lot of people do the same and I find the logic curious. So £70m-odd would change your life but £12m is neither here nor there?
    I could imagine (more or less) how I would spend £12m. £70m is unimaginable.
    Above about £20 million* no one has much use for it. So the trick is to give it all away.

    * £5m for a London house. £2m for a holiday home. £2m to fund education/deposit on a flat for the kids, £10m to generate an annual pre-tax income of about £350,000 for living expenses and £1m for a @SeanT style blowout

    First £5M wasted , how many sensible people would want to waste money on a house in London when you can chose anywhere, London would be way way way down most people's lists.
    £5m will get you a nice house anywhere - London is my bailiwick but fundamentally I was thinking of a principal residence.
    I could buy an estate and have large part of that left.
    PS: given I will never have 5 Million it is of little matter mind you but nice thought
This discussion has been closed.