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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hangi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.
Since Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell speech last week, where she indicated her intention to ask for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, the conventional wisdom appears to have been on something of a journey. The original reaction was one of panic. This was it. Just as we all feared, Scotland was heading for Independence as a consequence of the Brexit vote. Then Theresa May just said ‘no’. Now was not the time. There was a collective sigh of relief. ‘It’s not as bad as we feared’, the argument went, the SNP have overplayed their hand and this will all backfire on them.
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A good header, and nice to see someone accepting that there are arguments on both sides, rather than just calling those with a different opinion idiots.
The complacency I think is more a reaction to thinking a new referendum will not likely happen, it is felt, when Sturgeon has asked for it, but that always felt like an opening gambit more than a firm goal, so they are prepared for that to be beaten back.
Betfair moves a little. I must admit having suggested laying at 1/33 (i.e. to get 33/1) on Rutte to be PM, the actual odds I got were worse than that but the 1.06/7 now available is zero value for me. A good return though if you did lay at 1/33.
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
Hmmm...
May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.
The closest parallel is New Zealand, large land areas, bulk of population concentrated in a few cities with a close neighbour sharing a language /culture which will draw off excess capacity in the labour market.
The politics of it are simple, whilst the labour party is near death, Yes will get over the line in any vote. "No" would be viewed as a tory gig, and ultimately doomed to fail, despite it's virtues.
"By the way, reverend, since you're a history buff you might like to know that chair you're sat on was a sex chair owned by Edward VIII; it's seen more degrading acts of debauchery than a thousand brothers. Would you like a biscuit with your tea?"
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
Just my two pennorth!
40% would vote for it under any circumstances. They will turn out. The Nats need to convince enough of the rest that the situation has changed, for the worse for Scotland, and that this is the only chance to fix it. It is doable.
I think you'll manage somehow
Personally I was kind of hoping the robots could wait until I'm too old to care.
Should note uber self driving car is a total bust. In their testing it is requiring loads of human input
Somebody will get there but uber are miles off.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tax-burden-wealthy-has-trebled-since-1970s-telegraph-analysis/
But then I guess if I were that shameless I'd be like those people you see on bailiff shows on TV who haven't paid any rent for six months...
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.
Mine has been converted into a wonderful wine cellar and man-cave. The idea that I needed to stock it with tinned sardines and distilled water for some Trump armageddon event, though, never crossed my mind.
Crowd: Brussels... Brussels!
Royal Magistrate: Cry out. Just say it. "Brussels".
Hamish: Brussels lad, Brussels.
Stephen: Jesus, Brussels.
Royal Magistrate: [to crowd] The prisoner wishes to say a word.
William: BREEE-XXXITTTTT!!!!!
I feel like I should be cautious for a few years more to make sure that if things do go wrong I can keep us all comfortably into old age.
At the moment, being relatively newly well off, I have been buying the things we will need for ever, like a nice house, furnishing it with top quality stuff, etc. At least then I know my daughter is comfortably off until she leaves school.
As for the camping, we mostly go because my daughter and my dogs love it. I do like spending money on nice stuff (and got knows I have my rich mans trinkets like cars and watches), but lots of nice stuff doesn't actually cost very much.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
Still eye-wateringly horrible though. It's a disgrace that any govt should believe that stealing over half of your income was in any way morally acceptable.
In terms of it being a Tory gig, the Conservatives don't even platform on being Tories in Scotland, No will have a wide group of politicians to call on.
It's little brother syndrome. (Btw kiwis living in Australia are as representive of the population as Scots in London, not very)
God Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/843472011758354434
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/
Cunning plan Baldrick
For tactical reasons I can see why Sturgeon announced now. I think it was now or never.
But they were clearly caught short on preparing their campaign and policies, and they are clearly having trouble using the EU as justification for a new indyref while at the same time knowing there must be a membership gap.
Scexit fans are like remainers on steroids - keep voting until you get the result you want.
And look how much trouble that got us into.
Unlike Sean B I heard the Salmond Radio 5 interview which was very informative and perfectly compatible with the Sturgeon one with Sophie Ridge who is nothing like as good or experiences an interviewer as John Pienaar.
Firstly the SNP needs Salmond to handle the London interviewers. He is the one person they are frightened of trying to patronise because he knows his stuff backwards,forwards.
He made the point that, unlike last time, the referendum would take place with the UK and therefore Scotland leaving the UK. The last time negotiations would take place from within the EU. Therefore the key matter is to ensure continuity within the single marketplace which could be achieved through EFTA/EEA. Nicola said that SNP policy is to seek EU membership but many countries have used the EEA as a waiting room for EU membership. Thus it is perfectly alligned with what Salmond said.
Salmond pointed out that last time round the SNP had pursued a policy of a currency union with England but that it was vetoed by "the new editor of The London Standard!" He pointed out that no-one could stop Scotland using sterling as an internationally tradeable currency, as had been admitted by Alistair Darling, and that both Norway and Iceland had their own currencies while Liechtenstein shared the Swiss Franc.
His main point was that it was a bit daft saying these arrangements were not possible when they are in use elsewhere.
Finally Keiran I don't think you mean to sound patronising but you do. The SNP thinking is a model of clarity compared to the BREXIT plans of May/Davies. They will have to have their proposition finalised in time for a referendum not now and they shall do that.
What is needed is rigorous, effective investigation, a well funded and competent forensic service (that too has been gutted with adverse consequences for us all), an effective judicial process based on long-standing and fundamental principles coupled with politicians who stand up for the rule of law not treat it like a product in a factory.
If only.......
Night all
While there are some anti EU Scottish Nationalists, there are far more pro EU Unionists.
Signing off now until next Sunday. Lent is back at midnight.
I would have thought that resorting to being being offensive (which you invariably are) would be more closely related to a range of deep difficulties inferiority, uncertainty, fear of being found out etc etc many of which you frequently admit to.
I don't know if you have any problems with length.