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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The search for the answer to Labour’s woes
John Prescott’s view that Jeremy Corbyn and his top team are “not up to the f***ing job” which earned him a “potty mouth Prescott” headline in the Mail on Sunday won’t have come as surprise to the Labour leader.
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More recently Labour flooded Stoke on Trent Central with activists and the result still saw a swing to the Tories, who soft pedaled. That should be very concerning for Labour and suggests a problem at a national level.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/722837/indyref2-indyref-nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence/
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1383060-thousands-sign-petition-to-block-second-referendum/
Probably cross the 100,000 mark today guaranteeing a debate.
The solution needs to be more than retiring old JC to the club for aging Marxists as the systemic issues within the Labour party (ie role of Unions) are addressed. in this age of very fast comms, and a cynical electorate looking for clear (dare I say poulist) answers then no amount of door knocking will help a party stuck peddling a dull social democratic post-war model. The Scots referendum, is a case in point - wtf is Labour's (let alone JC's) position on this? its hardly a surprise and yet they seem caught like rabbits in the headlights- right rant over - back to bed.
As last years EU Referendum showed - the competing demands of these two cohorts will not easily be reconciled.
Nicola has played this very poorly and you can see she has been pushed into it by Salmond, her heart lies with the EU.
The article on the Telegraph laying out all of the SNP "meetings" with EU people is great btw. Nicola's meeting with the pest controller must have been particularly illuminating.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/14/nicola-sturgeon-will-not-get-much-help-europe-despite-charm/
Ben Shapiro
Imagine Geraldo's regret when he opened Al Capone's vault to find Rachel Maddow's report on Trump's taxes. https://t.co/RH3FRZtV66
I am available for consultation at vastly inflated rates commensurate with the magnitude of the political and culinary situation.
There isn't one.
They need to craft a message that resonates with those currently voting Tory and UKIP.
Only one man has managed that, in more than forty years. But he is now reviled almost as much as the Devil to whom he sold his soul.
Plus. Tony Blair had the good fortune to walk into Downing Street buoyed by a very healthy economy - and promising not to mess with it for three years. It's just a shame Gordon Brown didn't get the memo. Brown was always intent on implementing Labour's broken business model - having the public sector be funded at levels that were unsustainable by the private sector. And there is no word from anybody in the Labour Party suggesting they wouldn't try implementing exactly the same failed policy yet again if they got near power.
Labour are stuck in a time warp...or rather two. One in the 1970s.. (Corbyn) and one in the 1990s (Blair).
There is no original thinking and few with the ability to think originally.
They appear stuck..and need a really good blood letting to get rid of the muppets who choose policy by repeating mantras,,
Ironically, the answer to Labour’s woes does not end with the removal of Corbyn, the rot has gone further than just the head. The party needs new blood, new ideas and a platform fit for the 21st century, but above all, it needs to be honest with it's self about the problems it faces in a global world, and Labour don’t do honesty.
Just Wikipedia him.. its all there
@BBCPhilipSim: Mike Russell says there will be "absolute clarity" on ScotGov's position towards EU membership by the time of indyref2; asks for "patience".
So the SNP want 2 years to tell us whether they want to be in the EU, or not.
Numpties
Fully agree.
Labour are stuck in a time warp...or rather two. One in the 1970s.. (Corbyn) and one in the 1990s (Blair).
There is no original thinking and few with the ability to think originally.
They appear stuck..and need a really good blood letting to get rid of the muppets who choose policy by repeating mantras,,
In that sense they reflect British politics as a whole. The Tories are also utterly stuck in the past, with their preferred era being the 1920s. Fortunately for them, Britain runs on false nostalgia, but sooner or later they will find themselves in the same mess Labour is in.
In my opinion, the whole of English politics wallows in nostalgia, a sort of 1950s B&W Ealing comedy world where schoolboys wore caps, policemen saluted and the war was just a few years ago. It is quite toxic, I dont think it was such a golden age, but its appeal to people of all classes and backgrounds (most of whom were not even alive at the time) has allowed a narrative peddled by UKIP, Johnson, Daily Express, Telegraph etc al to set an agenda that is entirely backwards looking. The mess is pan-political...........
In my opinion, the whole of English politics wallows in nostalgia, a sort of 1950s B&W Ealing comedy world where schoolboys wore caps, policemen saluted and the war was just a few years ago. It is quite toxic, I dont think it was such a golden age, but its appeal to people of all classes and backgrounds (most of whom were not even alive at the time) has allowed a narrative peddled by UKIP, Johnson, Daily Express, Telegraph etc al to set an agenda that is entirely backwards looking. The mess is pan-political...........
You mean Dixon of Dock Green was "fake news" ? I'm shocked I tell you, shocked.
The question next time will be "do you want to be out of the EU?"
Yes
or
Yes
It's genius...
Survation and Social Attitudes also have polls on independence, showing 47/53% and 46/50% respectively.
Revoke apps access via your settings - this can only be done via desktop.
An early second referendum on Scottish secession is being justified purely on the grounds of Brexit. Given that, is it not important that the alternative position that Scotland is being asked to choose should be set out in the wording of the referendum, and that that position is clearly defined by the Scottish Parliament when it requests/demands a second referendum?
So, something along the lines of "Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom in order to seek to rejoin the European Union?". Or, as now seems to be SNP line "Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom and join the EFTA while remaining outside the European Union?".
Getting rid of Jeremy Corbyn is only going to lead to a sustained improvement in Labour's position if the new leader offers a clear prospectus.
The road back for Labour is a very long one, whoever the leader is. But the idea that Labour is uniquely struggling with the modern world, how it works and how to deliver significant beneficial change to ordinary voters is a bit far-fetched. Currently, we are leaving the European Union on the back of advocacy from a group of wealthy Tory cabinet ministers and MPs who want to revive the royal yacht Britannia, bring back grammar schools while depriving other state schools of money and who believe that Europe should lie down and give us everything that we want in the Brexit negotiations.
The perspectives of people such as Boris, Fox, Davies, Leadsom and May are a very long way from reality and show little evidence of having developed to meet the challenges of this ever-shrinking, extremely interconnected world. Instead, like Corbyn, they hark back to a time that has long gone - if it ever existed - but unlike him they do it happily and enthusiastically waving a Union Jack, so the are always going to beat him. They are extremely lucky to be up against someone like Jeremy, who combines rank incompetence with electoral toxicity.
Since 2014 Independence rose to 39% and now 46% in subsequent years.
On topic, whilst canvassing is clearly important for campaigning, and a very good way of picking up what people are thinking, for some Labour activists it does seem to have become something of an obsession. Many post incessant Labour doorstep tweets as if the mere act of knocking on doors is some sort of rain dance that will magic the votes to come. Few people are persuaded solely by a five minute chat at their front door.
"Feck it - FLAGS!!"
In my opinion, the whole of English politics wallows in nostalgia, a sort of 1950s B&W Ealing comedy world where schoolboys wore caps, policemen saluted and the war was just a few years ago. It is quite toxic, I dont think it was such a golden age, but its appeal to people of all classes and backgrounds (most of whom were not even alive at the time) has allowed a narrative peddled by UKIP, Johnson, Daily Express, Telegraph etc al to set an agenda that is entirely backwards looking. The mess is pan-political...........
Yep, it's leaving us utterly unprepared for the challenges to come.
Watch Twitter being hacked in real time...#Twitterhack #twitterhacked https://t.co/auhIZybbXm
Until the wider Labour Party decide what they're for, in a way that can attract the support of many current Tory and UKIP voters, they'll continue to go backwards. Right now, most people will say that Labour as a party stand for borrowing and spending more money, and for running public services for the benefit of the staff more than the customers - at the same time as loving low skilled immigration in the private sector. Until those attitudes change, Labour will struggle to be electable.
Someone needs to stand up and present a vision for "Labour in the 2020s", but until that happens they might as well leave Jeremy in place.
Yep, it's leaving us utterly unprepared for the challenges to come.
Totally agree. Boris and Fox think a new royal yacht will help us get great trade deals! The only real difference between the two major parties when it comes to thinking about the challenges of the 21st century and how to deal with them is the willingness to wave the Union Jack.
In my experience changing someone's mind on the door step is a rare achievement (and almost certainly means that they just want you to go away). I think it is more useful in encouraging those who are sympathetic to vote, applying for postal votes, etc. For that reason canvassing tends to be targeted at those who have already indicated some sympathy or support for your position. No wonder Corbyn still believes he is more popular than a fart in a spacesuit.
I remain perplexed as to why Sporting Index has the stupid championship ranking market up but not the points markets. Humbug!
On-topic: if Corbyn never wanted the job then standing for it twice appears not to have been the wisest of choices.
The second one was based on the premise that we would either stay in or at least rejoin pdq. That appears not to be the case so it is not applicable.
But if an MP knocks on doors in his constituency for an hour every week, has 10 conversations as a result and has been an MP for 40 years that's 20,000 conversations. Given that, I am surprised I do not know anyone who has ever met Corbyn.
Totally agree. Boris and Fox think a new royal yacht will help us get great trade deals! The only real difference between the two major parties when it comes to thinking about the challenges of the 21st century and how to deal with them is the willingness to wave the Union Jack.
I must be out of step with British politics - I get less nostalgic as I get older
And yes, I think the 50s rather than the 20s, which was a time of radical change.
Thousands of verified/blue check accounts involved too. Twitter mgt meanwhile are asleep at the wheel.
Similarly, Emmanuel Macron campaigning among French people in London is double plus good, and an occasion for editors to proclaim how London is "France's sixth city", because it's home to about 300,000 French people. But when Turkish government ministers want to campaign in Randstad, which is home to about 150,000 Turks in the Netherlands, it's "Raus!" and double plus bad.
I hold no brief for Erdogan's disgusting regime; just remarking on the double standards.
BREAKING
08:08 Twitter Accounts Appear to Be Hacked With Pro-Erdogan Content
Twitter Accounts Appear to Be Hacked With Swastikas and Pro-Erdogan Content
Bloomberg News
15 March 2017, 07:59 GMT
Twitter accounts belonging to a number of verified high-profile users appear to have been hacked with pro-Erdogan tweets, Bloomberg News reports.
Affected accounts include those of Sprint CEO Marcelo Claure, the U.K. Department of Health, Reuters Japan, Forbes, BBC North America, Duke University and Amnesty International. Others include those belonging to the Mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppe, and the European Parliament.
https://twitter.com/HulkHulkenberg/status/841732090823598080
Moving away from the irrelevant trivialities that are the Dutch election, Scottish independence and Leicester City football club to the main business of the day but before that..
I would respectfully draw the Moderators' attention to the deeply offensive and patronising posts yesterday from one Pulpstar of this parish who, despite being told certain suggested horses were not to be backed, put £105 of his hard earned on a Lucky 15 and then spent the afternoon complaining about their lack of success.
As I was, to my knowledge, the only member of this so-called betting forum to put his gonads above the parapet with some thoughts on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, I feel my selections deserved more respect. You can denigrate my politics but I draw the line at denigrating my horse racing knowledge.
If Pulpstar could be banned until there is a Lib Dem majority in the Commons or until he issues a suitably fulsome apology, I would be obliged.
That unpleasantness aside...
Day 2 of Cheltenham beckons and drying ground in the Cotswolds isn't going to make finding the winners any easier. My suggestions for the Grade 1 events as follows (odds at time of writing with Hills):
1.30: MESSIRE DES OBEAUX - (10/1) - fielding against the top two in the market.
2.10: WHISPER (6/1) - stable in form and has won twice over course if not distance
3.30: GOD'S OWN (12/1) - Douvan will win but I'll leave Pulpstar to put his £40,000 down the back of the sofa money on at 1/4.
5.30: SOMEDAY (8/1) - it's the Bumper, no idea at all. Next Destination looks a big threat at 10s but it's often won by an outsider.
Enjoy the sport - now back to the politics.
It always surprises me that people seem to talk to each other about when they were canvassed - quite often on the doorstep people will tell you where you were calling earlier in the week, or report instances of other party canvassing even if they weren't called on themselves. I guess as a rare event it seems more remarkable to the recipient than it does to the regular canvasser.
66,000 according to the ONS (which doesn't include students) and 86,000 according to the 2011 census (which does include students).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26823489
Which means London isn't even in the top 50 of largest French cities, even on the narrow French definition of city:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_75_largest_cities_in_France_(2012_census)
On the wider defined metropolitan areas London would struggle to get in the top 100.
In my opinion, the whole of English politics wallows in nostalgia, a sort of 1950s B&W Ealing comedy world where schoolboys wore caps, policemen saluted and the war was just a few years ago. It is quite toxic, I dont think it was such a golden age, but its appeal to people of all classes and backgrounds (most of whom were not even alive at the time) has allowed a narrative peddled by UKIP, Johnson, Daily Express, Telegraph etc al to set an agenda that is entirely backwards looking. The mess is pan-political...........
Got to agree with that ...
Remarkable.
Was your inference based on some earlier version of the SNP manifesto that you caught sight of? I must say I prefer the precise clarity of the version I saw.
On topic, the wild and wacky world of canvassing or "street surveys" as I used to call it when we went door knocking between elections. Cold calling people, especially when it's cold (the weather rather than the calling) isn't easy. In the summer when people are in their front gardens and the evenings are warm and fine, it's a doddle. People want to talk then but in the winter it's much harder.
Canvassing is part intelligence gathering and part about maintaining a presence. The more you know about the electoral shifts in an area the better you can campaign - social media campaigning is another form of targeted canvassing looking at Facebook and seeing who's following who.
Before all that, canvassing was part art form as you tried to differentiate between the time wasters from other parties and those genuinely engaged with you. Don't waste time on your supporters or your known opponents. It was also good to have a "biggish name" whether it was a local Councillor, a prospective Parliamentary candidate or best of all an MP.
When I lived in Sutton and we went out with Tom Brake it was amazing how everyone wanted to talk to their MP if he was on their doorstep. Oddly enough, it did nothing for the intelligence gathering but it advertised our presence wonderfully.
I confess I find Corbyn affable and I'm sure I could have a tea and a jam sandwich with him without any problem - I find Theresa May much less personable by comparison. It wouldn't do her any harm to lighten up a bit but she loves being the Thatcher-esque "firm hand in a time of crisis". Yes, well, but it gets a bit dour and boring after a while.
May is a Rino - Remainer In Name Only
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/03/14/no-deal-brexit-govt-is-bluffing-with-cards-everyone-can-see
"This is why the poker metaphor has always been so useless. We cannot bluff in these talks. Europe knows what happens if there is no deal. Everyone knows, even if the government is too deranged and paranoid to plan for it. Europe also knows, for that matter, what our advantages are: We have trade, security and intelligence cooperation, the PR of stable change and some welcome European financial service capacity to use as leverage.
So they know what we want, they know what we have to offer, and they know what the consequences are of the talks ending with no deal. They know everything. Anyone who reads a newspaper does.
Poker is a game based on the notion that you do not know the hand the other players hold. Article 50 is the precise opposite. But those fearful eyes from the Brexit trio tell us that they would likely fail at either poker or Article 50. Our problem is that before they do so, they will gamble away our future."