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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The search for the answer to Labour’s woes

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Bloody hell - and I thought a dozen names at local elections was hard work…
    Working out the swings between that lot will be fun!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    Mr. Carpet, that's faintly ridiculous.

    Mr. Borough, what about those who shun technology? I recall hearing of a Quaker firm with which my brother did business. He was very impressed by their efficiency, but their sole technological device was a landline telephone. Everything else was paper and ink.

    I believe they will be force to go digital for tax.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Much as Corbyn is atrocious, May is gradually getting better.....
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    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441


    The "ridiculous case" last year and the Supreme Court case this year are the same case.

    The original judge decided that Mrs Ilott (the estranged daughter cut out of her mother's will) was entitled to reasonable provision from her mother's estate and awarded her £50,000 - a little over 10% of the estate. The Court of Appeal increased the award to £163,000. The Supreme Court has acknowledged that the original judge could have awarded nothing at all and that, if he had, it is unlikely that an appeal would have succeeded. As his decision that Mrs Ilott was entitled to some provision was not legally flawed it has been upheld. However, their judgement today is very critical of the Court of Appeal. They find:

    - the original judge did not make either of the errors attributed to him
    - the Court of Appeal attached too little weight to the deceased's wishes
    - the original judge was correct regarding the effect of his award on Mrs Ilott's benefits and the Court of Appeal was completely wrong in this regard
    - the process followed by the Court of Appeal in determining the award was contrary to the law
    - the original judge was correct to consider only Mrs Ilott's maintenance needs and the Court of Appeal's award of a lump sum to allow her to buy her house from the Housing Association was contrary to the law

    As a result they have restored the original judgement, so Mrs Ilott is entitled to £50,000.

    I understand there was an arrangement between the charities involved and Mrs Ilott regarding what would happen if the charities won the appeal. The details of this arrangement have not been made public.

    Is there now anything left of the estate?
    This has largely been a battle between Mrs Ilott and the charities. The executors have been named as parties to the case but have not been represented for most of the hearings. The charities have funded their own representation. I therefore suspect the estate is largely intact.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Borough, I'm intensely against that sort of compulsion, so I hope it isn't the case.

    Edited extra bit: anyway, I must be off.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    Much as Corbyn is atrocious, May is gradually getting better.....

    She was muttering at herself for screwing up her closing zinger at Corbyn.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    Much as Corbyn is atrocious, May is gradually getting better.....

    Call an election and let's have done with him.
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    'He is just sitting there and going on protest marches'
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Harry Cole
    Corbyn: "We want a staircase for all, not a ladder for the few." I'm still waiting for my owl, personally.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Real LOTO up now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    I presume staggering because of the Corbyn reaction, rather than the u-turn itself - I feel sure there must have been more staggering ones.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    OK, enough now. Corbyn's got to go. This was the most shambolic performance by a party leader in House of Commons history.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Corbyn has blundered off, and missed target.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/38951741
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Real LOTO up now.

    And getting both barrels in return!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Real LOTO up now.

    Angus Robertson?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    PVV drifting on Betfair. Last matched at 2.54.
    VVD last matched at 1.7.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    kle4 said:

    Real LOTO up now.

    Angus Robertson?
    Yep.
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    Theresa is fired up today
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    kle4 said:

    Real LOTO up now.

    Angus Robertson?
    He's way more effective in Westminster than Salmond. The SNP are lucky they've got him.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AndyJS said:

    I think the unemployment statistics should be taken with a large pinch of salt, since in many western countries there are large numbers of people who are not included in any of the employment or unemployment statistics because they don't actively seek work. Lots of people have given up completely and they often don't show up in the figures.

    http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/record-94708000-americans-not-labor-force-participation-rate-drops
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/14/more-and-more-americans-are-outside-the-labor-force-entirely-who-are-they/

    International comparisons are frequently circumspect. However the employment rate gives a sufficient picture for the UK when taken alone.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,233
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy knocking on doors in Islington every week (and I am far from convinced that he does, by the way - I was born and brought up in the constituency next door, and also lived in Islington North, and I don't know anyone who has ever met him - anecdote, yes, but one based on close to 40 years of him being an MP) merely means that he is talking to a lot of people who already agree with him.

    The road back for Labour is a very long one, whoever the leader is. But the idea that Labour is uniquely struggling with the modern world, how it works and how to deliver significant beneficial change to ordinary voters is a bit far-fetched. Currently, we are leaving the European Union on the back of advocacy from a group of wealthy Tory cabinet ministers and MPs who want to revive the royal yacht Britannia, bring back grammar schools while depriving other state schools of money and who believe that Europe should lie down and give us everything that we want in the Brexit negotiations.

    The perspectives of people such as Boris, Fox, Davies, Leadsom and May are a very long way from reality and show little evidence of having developed to meet the challenges of this ever-shrinking, extremely interconnected world. Instead, like Corbyn, they hark back to a time that has long gone - if it ever existed - but unlike him they do it happily and enthusiastically waving a Union Jack, so the are always going to beat him. They are extremely lucky to be up against someone like Jeremy, who combines rank incompetence with electoral toxicity.

    snip



    I love the way leaver unionists cling to Spain like a liferaft. If Germany and France and the rest of the EU want this to happen, Spain will be bought off. However, it's going to be all about high politics - how far the Brexiters piss off Europe with their demands for cake and the facility to eat it.
    We actually have a Remainer, May, leading the UK negotiations not a Brexiter even if they also form part of the team
    May is no longer a remainer. And just like Corbyn, I'm not convinced she ever was. May just blows in the political wind. I doubt she's had an original thought in her life.
    The country are no longer Remainers after 17 million voted Leave so by definition the Prime Minister cannot now be a Remainer but she is not a hard-core Brexiteer in the Farage, IDS, Fox or Bone mould either

    pb is oddly slow to discuss the national insurance climbdown that's been announced:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/841977464414965765

    Pathetic
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    JonathanD said:



    Yeah but we're going to have a yacht - that will show them.

    If you look at the evidence, having a "royal yacht" is very effective at bolstering trade links. It's better at persuading individual businessmen to sign deals .
    An interesting answer and one that probably reveals a broader disconnect in what people understand by 'trade deals'. Your language suggests that you simply mean trade, which of course we are perfectly free to pursue within the EU. Free trade agreements are something very different and are the stuff of diplomacy.
    There's isn't a disconnect. I think I was pretty clear that it is helpful with trade, not with trade agreements. I didn't see Johnson's original comments, but I'm sure he didn't get into the specifics.
    The words 'after Brexit' imply that all of this trade promotion is something that needs to wait until we've left the EU.
    It will take at least 2 years to design and commission a new yacht.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Theresa is fired up today

    So was Hammond a week ago.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Real LOTO up now.


    Theresa May "raise's her game" when she reply's to Roberston while going through the motions with Corbyn.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 48s49 seconds ago
    More
    May has just announced the most staggering U-turn in Budget history. It has been turned into a humiliation for the leader of the opposition.

    A bigger humiliation than Brown's 10p tax abolition? Don't think so.
    The 10p tax abolition actually went ahead, though
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    kle4 said:

    Real LOTO up now.

    Angus Robertson?
    He's way more effective in Westminster than Salmond. The SNP are lucky they've got him.
    Salmond I find annoying but he is impressive, as his leadership surely showed. I've seen less of RObertson, he seem less flashy, but more serious and reasonable as a result.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    As a mild, from first principles, republican, I think monarchs should have royal yachts. They lack credibility otherwise. A bit like a landscape gardener who doesn't have a garden. If they really have to justify the expense on trade grounds that's a decision which can be weighed against, say, opening a new trade mission in Amaty. Obviously an important decision for those working in that area but it doesn't involve the rest of us.

    Boris Johnson and Liam Fox take us for fools when they come out with the Royal Yacht gambit as a way of compensating for the loss of our most important trading relationship.

    TBF I don't think we could have influenced the election of Trump (and nor should we have tried)
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    William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346

    On topic:

    1. Knocking doors and delivering leaflets to build up the reputation of a local MP/councillor in between elections is a quite effective approach especially when you need to distract the electorate from the limitations of a national leader plumbing the depths of unpopularity.

    2. In terms of "The search for the answers to Labour's woes", Yougov have another poll out of Labour party members:
    "Would X make a good or poor leader of the Labour Party if Jeremy Corbyn were to stand down"
    Net scores:
    Starmer +32
    Lewis +24
    Rayner +9
    Jarvis +6
    McDonnell +5
    Umunna +4
    Long Bailey +1
    Nandy -2
    Ashworth -6
    Watson -22
    Abbott -43

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ahgsjavm5a/TimesResults_170310_LabourMembers_Website.pdf

    Nandy marked down for talking sense?

    I reckon she is the one off that list that CCHQ would be most worried about facing. Talks sense, comes across well, young, female...what am I saying? This is the Labour membership we are talking about!
    Nandy, Jarvis, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Ashworth have huge "don't know" scores in the poll if you follow the link. McDonnell and Umunna get polarised results - lots of fans, lots of opponents - while Watson and Abbott seem really not fancied as leaders by the membership. Starmer and Lewis both have lots of fans and not many opponents. In an actual context, I'd expect some of the "don't know" pack to become better known with a more marked result, but at present I think Lewis is probably the favourite - more left of centre than Starmer (right back to Harold Wilson it was said that the party is most effectivley led from the centre-left) but doesn't have the entrenched opposition that McDonnell and Umunna seem to have.

    As an example, I suspect that both Southam Observer and I could live comfortably with Starmer or Lewis, though I remain a supporter of Corbyn and SO...not so much.
    Who among those would be able to get on the ballot, under the current rules? I'd assume McDonnell and Abbott wouldn't - there'll be no Corbyn style broadening of the debate happening again - Nandy, Jarvis, Starmer and Umunna probably could unless they were crowded out by other candidates. I don't really know about the others.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 48s49 seconds ago
    More
    May has just announced the most staggering U-turn in Budget history. It has been turned into a humiliation for the leader of the opposition.

    A bigger humiliation than Brown's 10p tax abolition? Don't think so.
    The 10p tax abolition actually went ahead, though
    As did the abolition of Labour as a party of government afterwards.
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    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Any idea who's favourite to become CotE after the NIC debacle?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
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    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    I dont agree - TM had to address the breach, or perceived breach, of the manifesto
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 48s49 seconds ago
    More
    May has just announced the most staggering U-turn in Budget history. It has been turned into a humiliation for the leader of the opposition.

    A bigger humiliation than Brown's 10p tax abolition? Don't think so.
    The 10p tax abolition actually went ahead, though
    The 10p tax thing wasn't spotted for 12 months.
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    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Blairite scum, mainstream media, war mongering, running dog etc etc
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    PMQs going on until SNP members have been called, it seems....
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Perhaps the Labour Party actually have a very cunning plan. They let Corbyn play pretend at being leader until late 2018, 2019. He continues to be as useful as the proverbial chocolate teapot. Tories get increasingly complacent and let themselves go. Labour depose Corbyn in a swift coup, Jarvis takes over, and Labour ride to victory in a 2020 landslide.

    I'm too much of an optimist to believe the alternative.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    Agree. Unless a snap election is in the offing after all....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    PVV drifting on Betfair. Last matched at 2.54.
    VVD last matched at 1.7.

    There was a poll out this morning (Ipsos?) With the VVD on 29 seats and the PVV on 20.

    But really, who knows?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 48s49 seconds ago
    More
    May has just announced the most staggering U-turn in Budget history. It has been turned into a humiliation for the leader of the opposition.

    A bigger humiliation than Brown's 10p tax abolition? Don't think so.
    The 10p tax abolition actually went ahead, though
    He had to amend the personal allowance after the budget to nullify the change, in the face of a huge rebellion from his own side.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970

    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    I dont agree - TM had to address the breach, or perceived breach, of the manifesto

    Nah - she is just terrified of bad headlines in the Tory press.

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    Agree. Unless a snap election is in the offing after all....
    I approved of the move but came round to the view that the manifesto breach wasn't worth it. Given the polling, the next manifesto can be braver.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
    Civil service NICs went up. It had something to do with a chance in their pensions, but the bottom line is my NI went up £30 a month last April.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
    Civil service NICs went up. It had something to do with a chance in their pensions, but the bottom line is my NI went up £30 a month last April.
    I think it was the loss of a rebate than the addition of something new. Because of new state pension:

    "The introduction of the Single Tier State Pension from April 2016 is accompanied by the ending of contracting out from defined benefit pension schemes. Official statistics show 5.3m public sector workers and 2.8m private sector workers are active members of these schemes.

    As a result:

    affected employees will lose their 1.4 per cent rebate and pay NI contributions of 12 per cent from April 2016 instead of the current 10.6 per cent."
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
    Civil service NICs went up. It had something to do with a chance in their pensions, but the bottom line is my NI went up £30 a month last April.
    Was that decision announced pre or post 2015 GE and was Osborne the Chancellot
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164

    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    Agree. Unless a snap election is in the offing after all....
    Given Article 50 is to be invoked at the end of the month almost certainly not
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    I dont agree - TM had to address the breach, or perceived breach, of the manifesto
    Technically there was no strict breach and even Tory voters back it, if Hammond tries to raise tax on something else next time which Tory voters oppose then he will really find out what opposition is. Only thing I think he can do now is cut overseas aid spending in Autumn Statement, that really would be a manifesto breach few would care about
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    What an utter shambles. And I don't mean Hammond but Davis before Brexit select committee this morning. And we really expect this shower to get ensuring they've promised us from the EU negotiations? The amazing thing is that they're still 40% in the polls.
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    Cyan said:

    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax

    Oh dear
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
    Civil service NICs went up. It had something to do with a chance in their pensions, but the bottom line is my NI went up £30 a month last April.
    I think it was the loss of a rebate than the addition of something new. Because of new state pension:

    "The introduction of the Single Tier State Pension from April 2016 is accompanied by the ending of contracting out from defined benefit pension schemes. Official statistics show 5.3m public sector workers and 2.8m private sector workers are active members of these schemes.

    As a result:

    affected employees will lose their 1.4 per cent rebate and pay NI contributions of 12 per cent from April 2016 instead of the current 10.6 per cent."
    So technically not a manifesto breach? Is that not the same as the NI rise for the self employed?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    pb is oddly slow to discuss the national insurance climbdown that's been announced:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/841977464414965765

    I called this a week ago.
    So did I, but was shouted down at the time and told in no uncertain terms that there was absolutely no chance of the Treasury back-tracking on this.

    So that's Part One of the battle won, Part Two relates to the even more anti-Tory bashing measure, spread over the last two budgets, firstly the scrapping last year of ACT, replaced by a miserable £5k annual allowance, followed this year by a more than halving of this allowance from £5k to £2k. How's about a serious bit of cost saving instead Mr Hammond by way of a change?
    I'm gutted that they've u-turned on this.

    The dividend tax reforms were sorely needed - and I say this as someone who pays far more since the changes.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    kle4 said:

    Could be an interesting one, given IIRC there was that ridiculous case last year where an estranged daughter left out of a will was awarded significant amounts by the courts despite explicit instructions from the mother.

    Three animal charities have won a case at the Supreme Court against a woman cut out of her mother's will.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-39278921

    Thats the law. We should repeal the 75 Act if we don't like the law. The courts weren't making things up they enforced the law passed by Parliament.
    I've not seen the judgement, but it looks like the Supreme Court have really slapped down the Court of Appeal. The Court of Appeal has been very unsympathetic towards charities in inheritance cases, and the Supreme Court has basically instructed them to apply the law, not what they'd like the law to be.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164

    Perhaps the Labour Party actually have a very cunning plan. They let Corbyn play pretend at being leader until late 2018, 2019. He continues to be as useful as the proverbial chocolate teapot. Tories get increasingly complacent and let themselves go. Labour depose Corbyn in a swift coup, Jarvis takes over, and Labour ride to victory in a 2020 landslide.

    I'm too much of an optimist to believe the alternative.

    Jarvis polls poorly with Labour members and what are they going to ride to victory on? Reversing Brexit?
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    So NIC u-turn will now be wiped off front pages by 'Corbyn fails to actually ask questions at PMQs'

    Corbyn not being great is old news, May proving she's as frit as any PM with a slender majority is not.
    Think TM ordered the change as she would be furious about a manifesto breach - sure Hammond was told to scrap it or resign
    She obviously wasn't too bother about the manifesto breach last year.
    Which one
    Civil service NICs went up. It had something to do with a chance in their pensions, but the bottom line is my NI went up £30 a month last April.
    Was that decision announced pre or post 2015 GE and was Osborne the Chancellot
    Every public sector worker's NICs increased from 10.4% to 12% last April. I don't remember the Tory loud mouths and press barons queuing up then bleating about broken manifesto promises. My pay last year was cut despite the 1% pay "rise" and increase in IT personal allowance.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anyone holding Hammond Next PM slips must be reaching for the shredder.

    Unlikely to be COTE by the next election I'd say - what a plonker.
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    Chris_A said:

    What an utter shambles. And I don't mean Hammond but Davis before Brexit select committee this morning. And we really expect this shower to get ensuring they've promised us from the EU negotiations? The amazing thing is that they're still 40% in the polls.

    44% yesterday
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Cyan said:

    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax

    Here's the full story:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/probe-into-vegas-event-attended-by-emmanuel-macron/
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    This morning I started writing a thread header that referenced the NI storm being weathered. Just don't get why they'd u turn now.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyan said:

    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax

    Here's the full story:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/probe-into-vegas-event-attended-by-emmanuel-macron/
    So strictly speaking it's not Macron himself who is under investigation then?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164

    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.

    Cameron's manifesto ruled out any IHT, NI or income tax rise so that leaves corporation tax and stamp duty and alcohol and cigarette and fuel taxes
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.

    Cameron's manifesto ruled out any IHT, NI or income tax rise so that leaves corporation tax and stamp duty and alcohol and cigarette and fuel taxes
    Or fiscal drag on thresholds across a range of different taxes.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Mortimer said:

    This morning I started writing a thread header that referenced the NI storm being weathered. Just don't get why they'd u turn now.

    Weak weak weak weak weak.

    Proves me wrong, I thought they'd weather this storm.* This does make me rather better off,** but I'm not convinced it's equitable, or the best thing for the country.

    (* in fact I wrote this comment, refreshed to see if anyone had said the same thing in the time it had taken me to type, then realised you'd used exactly the same words!)

    (** except for what @FrancisU has pointed out.)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It seems that the Dutch don't have a word for "brisk":

    https://twitter.com/mvanhulten/status/841994731668287490
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyan said:

    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax

    Here's the full story:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/probe-into-vegas-event-attended-by-emmanuel-macron/
    Fake News affecting politico.eu - the banner space taken up at the top by a news headline, "Obama is a Bildeberg" - with a list of other prominent Bildebergers underneath, and a link to that story. On a different and rather fakenewsy site, obviously. ("Outsider News - clue in the name there, I reckon.) I presume politico doesn't intend to let ads like that actually run...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,065
    The problem with u-turns like this is that they don't fully fix the issue. People like the boiler man who was ranting about the NIC change whilst fixing my boiler last Thursday won't be thinking: "Oh, that's alright then."

    They might feel relief, but many will still feel sore, and some will wonder, rightly or wrongly, how the government will get the money by stealth.

    The damage has been done. Some trust in the government will have been lost by many of its supporters.

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:

    This morning I started writing a thread header that referenced the NI storm being weathered. Just don't get why they'd u turn now.

    (a) They [maybe] don't have the votes for it, and (b) the credibility of the 2020 manifesto was at stake.

    The fact that the polling we did see was broadly in favour suggests that a more substantial realignment [or maybe even abolition of NI?] may well be part of that next manifesto. I hope so.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's case against TV network TF1 will be heard tomorrow by the State Council, France's supreme administrative court. NDA argues that the network should invite all candidates to its TV debate on 20 March, not just the five who are currently scoring 10% or more in the polls. If he loses, he will organise a protest outside the TF1 studios on the day of the debate.

    BFMTV and CNews will invite all candidates to their debate on 4 April, and so will France 2 to theirs on 20 April, three days before the first round.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    HYUFD said:

    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.

    Cameron's manifesto ruled out any IHT, NI or income tax rise so that leaves corporation tax and stamp duty and alcohol and cigarette and fuel taxes
    It also have full and unambiguous support to the Single Market so probably even punching above its weight as toilet paper at the moment.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,921

    Chris_A said:

    What an utter shambles. And I don't mean Hammond but Davis before Brexit select committee this morning. And we really expect this shower to get ensuring they've promised us from the EU negotiations? The amazing thing is that they're still 40% in the polls.

    44% yesterday
    44% is as much down to the fact that there is little credible opposition at the moment, it does not follow that the Tories are doing a good job.

    I would challenge anyone to watch the Secretary of State for Brexit in committee this morning and not fhave grave misgivings about how this might turn out. I might add that I consider Davis to be comfortably the best of the 3 Brexiteers.
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    The problem with u-turns like this is that they don't fully fix the issue. People like the boiler man who was ranting about the NIC change whilst fixing my boiler last Thursday won't be thinking: "Oh, that's alright then."

    They might feel relief, but many will still feel sore, and some will wonder, rightly or wrongly, how the government will get the money by stealth.

    The damage has been done. Some trust in the government will have been lost by many of its supporters.

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.

    The instigator in my opinion was TM herself. She would not accept a manifesto breach
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146

    The damage has been done. Some trust in the government will have been lost by many of its supporters.

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.

    It also means she'll have a big credibility problem in negotiations with the EU if they've seen her fold so easily in the past.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    WHAT A JOKE THE NIC CLIMBDOWN IS.

    PAYE SAPS ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO PAY FOR EVERY OTHER ***********
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    WEAK WEAK WEAK
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    WHAT A JOKE THE NIC CLIMBDOWN IS.

    PAYE SAPS ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO PAY FOR EVERY OTHER ***********

    Yes - all duffer Phil has done is to publicise how cushy the self employed have it and peeving both S/E and PAYE types.

    Utter dolt.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,065

    The problem with u-turns like this is that they don't fully fix the issue. People like the boiler man who was ranting about the NIC change whilst fixing my boiler last Thursday won't be thinking: "Oh, that's alright then."

    They might feel relief, but many will still feel sore, and some will wonder, rightly or wrongly, how the government will get the money by stealth.

    The damage has been done. Some trust in the government will have been lost by many of its supporters.

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.

    The instigator in my opinion was TM herself. She would not accept a manifesto breach
    But she must have read and discussed the budget before Hammond read it out? That explanation just makes her look incompetent.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyan said:

    French prosecutors opened an investigation yesterday into Macron's trip last year to Las Vegas when he was economics minister. They are particularly interested in why he gave a €400,000 contract to public relations firm Havas without inviting bids from anyone else.

    Meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people have signed a petition calling for an open inquiry into three "scandales Macron", namely

    * Vegasgate

    * alleged influence trafficking for the pharmaceutical company Servier

    * alleged dodgy returns for wealth tax and income tax

    Here's the full story:

    http://www.politico.eu/article/probe-into-vegas-event-attended-by-emmanuel-macron/
    So strictly speaking it's not Macron himself who is under investigation then?
    You'd think FANCY BEAR would have something better than that lined up.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    edited March 2017
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    WHAT A JOKE THE NIC CLIMBDOWN IS.

    PAYE SAPS ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE TO PAY FOR EVERY OTHER ***********

    Yes - all duffer Phil has done is to publicise how cushy the self employed have it and peeving both S/E and PAYE types.

    Utter dolt.
    If you are employed there is a 45.8% Tax on every penny over £11,000.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Mortimer said:

    pb is oddly slow to discuss the national insurance climbdown that's been announced:

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/841977464414965765

    I called this a week ago.
    So did I, but was shouted down at the time and told in no uncertain terms that there was absolutely no chance of the Treasury back-tracking on this.

    So that's Part One of the battle won, Part Two relates to the even more anti-Tory bashing measure, spread over the last two budgets, firstly the scrapping last year of ACT, replaced by a miserable £5k annual allowance, followed this year by a more than halving of this allowance from £5k to £2k. How's about a serious bit of cost saving instead Mr Hammond by way of a change?
    I'm gutted that they've u-turned on this.

    The dividend tax reforms were sorely needed - and I say this as someone who pays far more since the changes.
    Agreed. They'll get as much criticism from their own side for the u-turn as they would have had about the original policy. Also watch for the hypocritical media lambasting the reversal as much as they lambasted the announcement.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.

    It only raised £200 million in total.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,233

    HYUFD said:

    Bad move by Hammond today, undoubtedly the worst move by the government so far and just stores up future tax increases elsewhere to pay for social care

    I dont agree - TM had to address the breach, or perceived breach, of the manifesto

    Nah - she is just terrified of bad headlines in the Tory press.

    Like I said earlier she blows in the political wind. Weak, weak, weak.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Mortimer said:

    This morning I started writing a thread header that referenced the NI storm being weathered. Just don't get why they'd u turn now.

    (a) They [maybe] don't have the votes for it, and (b) the credibility of the 2020 manifesto was at stake.

    The fact that the polling we did see was broadly in favour suggests that a more substantial realignment [or maybe even abolition of NI?] may well be part of that next manifesto. I hope so.
    Fingers crossed on that one.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    nunu said:

    So I presume now everybody is going to get a tax rise in one form or another to compensate for the NI u-turn.

    It only raised £200 million in total.
    That was net of the Class II changes [which haven't been reversed], wasn't it? The Class IV rise on its own was about £2bn?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.

    I think it probably was the media response that did it, "white van man tax" is not something the government want to be hung on their shoulders. It's a bit like the "pasty tax" in that the outrage was completely out of proportion to the tax change.

    As to the fix, good old fiscal drag will likely be used as was suggested down thread.
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    So the Lady is for turning.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    So the Lady is for turning.

    As was Thatcher.
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    The problem with u-turns like this is that they don't fully fix the issue. People like the boiler man who was ranting about the NIC change whilst fixing my boiler last Thursday won't be thinking: "Oh, that's alright then."

    They might feel relief, but many will still feel sore, and some will wonder, rightly or wrongly, how the government will get the money by stealth.

    The damage has been done. Some trust in the government will have been lost by many of its supporters.

    A question is where the most pressure for the u-turn came from: it certainly wasn't from the opposition. If it was from the Conservative backbenchers rather than the media, then May has some fairly significant problems bubbling under the surface.

    The instigator in my opinion was TM herself. She would not accept a manifesto breach
    But she must have read and discussed the budget before Hammond read it out? That explanation just makes her look incompetent.
    With her tray full delegation is esssntial. I do believe it was a collective failure of the cabinet and TM has reversed it - the right thing to do
This discussion has been closed.