Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
"The polls might be wrong or there might be a last minute swing but there is no reason why either of those considerations should necessarily benefit the PVV rather than another party."
Ongoing events may persuade many that the PVV are where it's at.
Lot more work to stuff ballot boxes than electronically vote, and a lot more work to manipulate counting by dozens of people rather than machines. To do both? Tough.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
No, in Denmark the UKIP counterpart is well down on past successes, currently having lost a fifth of its voters since the last election (on 17%). There has been a right-wing protest party in Denmark for decades now and they usually get 10-20% of the vote.
In the Netherlands, as Alastair notes, Wilders is under 20%, but the PR system enables numerous parties to thrive, so everyone else is too. The point, though, is that Wilders has virtually no support from other parties, so his views, as in Denmark, are limited to a fifth of the electorate. I think that there's a nationalist/populist 20% potential in virtually every country, which is periodically realised when someone catches the mood, but it rarely goes further than that, and never in Northern Europe.
On topic, I've been plugging the Greens as good value to come top, and at their Betfair price of 75 they are still a fair investment of a couple of quid. But as HYUFD notes, the final event was a debate between Wilders and the VVD leader Rutte, and that's likely to polarise votes. Since most voters are anti-Wilders, that will help the VVD more than the PVV, so they ought to be favourites, but they aren't, presumably because punters are projecting from Trump and Brexit to expect another populist win. I'm therefore on the VVD myself. My only hesitation is that Wilders may outpoll the poll ratings if there's a "shy PVV" factor.The polls are here (note that half a dozen are all from ysterday): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
Incidentally,to reply to The White Rabbit, the position will reflect rather than worry Corbyn. The PvdA has massively lost ground because they're a moderate left party that has been in coalition with the centre-right. They've lost huge numbers of votes to the Green Left and the Socialist Party, both of whom are very similar to Corbyn (the former more Green, of course, the latter more traditionalhard left). I suspect the same would happen in Britain with PR - what keeps the centre-left going is that under FPTP they can reasonably say they have a better chance of winning.
That's our whole relationship with the EU in one sentence.
We weren't as happy as them to subordinate ourselves to the end goal, because we did not share that goal. Better for both of us to part ways than remain in and just be bitter toward each other.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
We have a cottage industry aimed at beating ourselves up over racism but my experience of living in Germany, in France and in the Netherlands shows that our behaviours are generally pretty good.
Latest Fillon news: A large part of the money paid to his children went straight into Fillon's account apparently to pay back their pocket money as well as loans he had given them!
The lawyer for his daughter said that she can do what she want with her money and if she wants to give it to her parents that's her choice...
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
That is because most Brits think of the Netherlands (or more usually Holland) and imagine only Amsterdam. Just as thinking of the Uk as solely London would leave a visitor baffled at Brexit.
Rural and small town Holland is pretty conservative. The country returns three explicitly Christian parties to Parliament.
10% regular church attendance these days compared to 50% in the 1960s.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
With what's going on on the streets, I would make the PVV favourites, but a tie for first place - a nice earner for Betfair - seems a substantial possibility.
Wilders seems to have gone way over the top in recent weeks to me. Say what you like about Farage but he's never called for Korans to be seized from homes, or migrants "scum".
As per usual the politics of other countries makes British politics look like a teddy bears picnic.
I expect the results for the PVV to disappoint. But, then again, he has interesting hair.
He does seem to gone off the deep end - I think it's probably to be expected considering he has lived with round the clock security for over a decade due to fears he will be assassinated like others in the Netherlands who have spoken out against Islam. Must really poison the mind against the religion.
I don't think Wilders is really all that good of an example of populist politics a la Trump and Le Pen - he has very little to say on anything other than Islam. He appears to be a rabble rouser more than a serious politician trying to win like MLP (Trump obv not a serious politician but he was definitely playing to win!).
I agree that it looks like the PVV will underperform. I think there will be a sigh of relief in Europe when they do, and a mistaken idea that the populist tsunami is over.
The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.
But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?
If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.
I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?
Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?
A No is precisely what they're expecting and hoping for. It allows for the ongoing suspension of normal politics and gives the SNP the chance to go to the country post-Brexit to get a specific mandate for a referendum. That is something that Westminster could not reject.
Latest Fillon news: A large part of the money paid to his children went straight into Fillon's account apparently to pay back their pocket money as well as loans he had given them!
The lawyer for his daughter said that she can do what she want with her money and if she wants to give it to her parents that's her choice...
The leading party not even getting 20% is the sort of extreme splitting of the vote that worries some people about PR systems.
But maybe you are mixing up cause and effect?
If voters and their allegiances are so fragmented that no party commands more than 20% support, even FPTnP cannot save you from a fragmented outcome (barring some truly bizarre geographical split of the vote that delivers a clearly illegitimate outcome, which is a big if different problem in those circumstances). People are already recognising that FPTnP is ceasing to "work" and hence lose its legitimacy with the loss of combined two-party support we already have in the UK.
The two-party share of the vote went up in 2015.
The legitimacy of the outcome, however, did not
Well, it's a view.
If someone thinks fptp is not the best system, perhaps because it results in majorities on less than a majority of the vote, and is consistent about that - that is, they complained about the system when their side won that way too - that seems fair enough. I'm not a fan of fptp myself. But I personally dislike dismissing results as illegitimate. They were legal and legitimate, and to date the people have indicated through no desire to change that they support this system.
I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.
I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?
Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?
It just places another dark cloud over an already crap Brexit. From a UK, or indeed a Scottish, perspective, Ms Sturgeon shouldn't try to make a bad situation worse. Mrs May and her colleagues in Scotland could never admit to it being a bad situation. Tactically clever. Strategically perhaps less so, but as the party of independence the SNP has to keep pushing the issue.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
What is the formality for sending the Article 50 notice, I wonder? Diplomatic pouch? Air-drop by 2 Para? Text message - "U R DUMPED! LOL!!"?
A man in tights flanked by two Beefeaters and six shaven-headed football hooligans will go round to the head office of the European Commission's representation in Britain, which is at 32 Smith Square.
The letter will be printed on foolscap paper, because A4 has an area equal to a sixteenth of that abomination, a square metre.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
I must admit to disagreeing with both you and Phil.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
If they think they can extract a large sum from us, or can get valuable industries to move to their countries, then of course they will. That's because they are acting - as they morally must - in their own interest.
"IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there/"
I'm sure you're right, but I was thinking more of the post-sixties. A man of your seniority would remember them well.
Pornography and Pot are my memories - but only from what I read.
If you remember it, you weren't there.
I remember the sixties. As a married man with a family for most of them all the forgettable bits were something I read about. My salad days were the late 50’s, and that was very much lettuce and tomato. Nothing more exotic!
I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.
I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?
Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?
Or that the SNP might lose?
It seems to me that the solution is:
(a) keep Andrew Cooper out of it (b) make Scotland an offer it can't refuse
As part of the UK, Scots can directly influence global trade deals, access a UN security council seat, have control over agriculture, fisheries and migration quotas at Holyrood, maintain senior command posts in the British armed forces, and have every prospect of supplying the Chancellor and PM again in future at Westminster. They may also benefit from future more liberal visa arrangements with ANZAC countries.
They won't get any of that by staying in the EU. And as a very small country (19 of 27 in population) are likely to be led rather than lead.
I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.
I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?
Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?
A No is precisely what they're expecting and hoping for. It allows for the ongoing suspension of normal politics and gives the SNP the chance to go to the country post-Brexit to get a specific mandate for a referendum. That is something that Westminster could not reject.
Quite. Although some snp bod this morning was saying they already had a mandate for one, which surprised me, since I thought yesterday was the first official confirmation they were getting one, and merely not ruling it out before would not be a mandate. Either way, they either get one, or get the grievance of refusal or delay to work from. It's why I have trouble with the idea it was a blunder.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
Try China. Try being black in Japan. It's beyond racism to a simple failure to equate them as fellow human beings.
"IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there/"
I'm sure you're right, but I was thinking more of the post-sixties. A man of your seniority would remember them well.
Pornography and Pot are my memories - but only from what I read.
If you remember it, you weren't there.
I remember the sixties. As a married man with a family for most of them all the forgettable bits were something I read about. My salad days were the late 50’s, and that was very much lettuce and tomato. Nothing more exotic!
I believe some of those skiffle gigs could get pretty wild.
I always thought ( apart from his last incident ) that David Cameron was an unreasonably lucky politician. I never thought it of Theresa May but surely in private she won't be able to believe her luck over what the SNP did yesterday.
I am amused how the press seem to have followed the SNP briefing as to how they have tied Theresa in knots and how she will not be able to defeat a second independence referendum in 2018/9 ?
Did it not cross any of their minds that she might just say NO ?
Or that the SNP might lose?
It seems to me that the solution is:
(a) keep Andrew Cooper out of it (b) make Scotland an offer it can't refuse
As part of the UK, Scots can directly influence global trade deals, access a UN security council seat, have control over agriculture, fisheries and migration quotas at Holyrood, maintain senior command posts in the British armed forces, and have every prospect of supplying the Chancellor and PM again in future at Westminster. They may also benefit from future more liberal visa arrangements with ANZAC countries.
They won't get any of that by staying in the EU. And as a very small country (19 of 27 in population) are likely to be led rather than lead.
I doubt if Andrew Cooper is persona grata in Downing Street these days. He made the classic error of believing his own spin.
They won't get any of that by staying in the EU. And as a very small country (19 of 27 in population) are likely to be led rather than lead.
So based on a similar argument do you think Luxembourg would be better off joining France or Germany rather than being an independent EU state 10 times smaller in population than Scotland?
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
Mr. Glenn, thanks for posting the Fillon info, but I can't see it changing much given he's decided to linger around like flatulence in a lift.
I suppose the only impact possible would be a scenario where he somehow makes the last 2 against Le Pen and his shenanigans cause him to not get the transfers everyone expects, but it is hard to see any of that as probable.
"IIR my WWII history C there was a significant Dutch Nazi organisation wasn’t there/"
I'm sure you're right, but I was thinking more of the post-sixties. A man of your seniority would remember them well.
Pornography and Pot are my memories - but only from what I read.
If you remember it, you weren't there.
I remember the sixties. As a married man with a family for most of them all the forgettable bits were something I read about. My salad days were the late 50’s, and that was very much lettuce and tomato. Nothing more exotic!
I believe some of those skiffle gigs could get pretty wild.
Yup. It was 'the pill’ which really made the difference, though. Seemed to me.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
I must admit to disagreeing with both you and Phil.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
If they think they can extract a large sum from us, or can get valuable industries to move to their countries, then of course they will. That's because they are acting - as they morally must - in their own interest.
But, there is a difference between a country acting in its own interests and actively looking to make a political example of a deserter.
I would count Australia-UK as an example of the former, and the EU-UK the latter.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
I presume that is the intent, as a flat no would be even more a red rag to a bull. Not without drawbacks though.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
The English are easily the most tolerant and open-minded people in the world. Quite remarkably so.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted)
Or she could tell Sturgeon "Wait until you see what's in the deal until you decide you're against it, you silly cow."
Offering more devolution would be terrible strategy. The whole idea that after Brexit Scotland would be better off inside the EU, with the border becoming an external EU one, is a porky and should be treated as such. She should invite Sturgeon to give her input into the back-office side of the British negotiating effort.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
The English are easily the most tolerant and open-minded people in the world. Quite remarkably so.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
Not sure about the BBC.
Probably! I don't like the BBC much either. (Apart from Radio 4).
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
I couldn't agree more. It's worth remembering that such attitudes were leading to significant bloodshed and genocide barely 17 years ago, and there are worrying signs of political regression in Hungary and Poland today as well.
I bear no grudge at all for liberals, centrists, and soft conservatives in such nations being strongly pro-EU on the basis it will lift up and develop them over-and-above what could happen if they did not join.
What is the formality for sending the Article 50 notice, I wonder? Diplomatic pouch? Air-drop by 2 Para? Text message - "U R DUMPED! LOL!!"?
A man in tights flanked by two Beefeaters and six shaven-headed football hooligans will go round to the head office of the European Commission's representation in Britain, which is at 32 Smith Square.
The letter will be printed on foolscap paper, because A4 has an area equal to a sixteenth of that abomination, a square metre.
Nice. Perhaps with a public parade following on behind, open to all those who voted Leave? Just to make sure nothing goes wrong.
And as he voted Remain and to show the coming together after Brexit, the man in tights should be The Speaker, John Bercow.....
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
I must admit to disagreeing with both you and Phil.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
If they think they can extract a large sum from us, or can get valuable industries to move to their countries, then of course they will. That's because they are acting - as they morally must - in their own interest.
But, there is a difference between a country acting in its own interests and actively looking to make a political example of a deserter.
I would count Australia-UK as an example of the former, and the EU-UK the latter.
So the EU would be better off responding to independence movements within its members in the way the British Empire did?
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
I must admit to disagreeing with both you and Phil.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
Acting in their own interests is quite the contrast to the Gus O'Donnell style of negotiating that has so damaged British interests for decades.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
Try China. Try being black in Japan. It's beyond racism to a simple failure to equate them as fellow human beings.
And the caste system in India. The worst cases of casual abuse I have ever seen have been in India.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
So true, I have well off friends in Italy who are openly and unashamedly racist, its quite uncomfortable listening to some of the things they say.
I'm certainly for the Scots having the right to decide their own destiny (As a hypothetical Lib Dem majority would be a perfectly good reason for EU Ref II in 2020 say), but surely it would be best for everyone if it was to take place after the UK leaves the EU, or at least after two years after May triggers Art 50 ?
Scotland will be leaving the EU as a part of the UK regardless of the Sindy Ref II result, timescales dictate that.
They won't get any of that by staying in the EU. And as a very small country (19 of 27 in population) are likely to be led rather than lead.
So based on a similar argument do you think Luxembourg would be better off joining France or Germany rather than being an independent EU state 10 times smaller in population than Scotland?
That's a choice for the people of Scotland.
They have different choices available to them to Luxembourg.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
The English are easily the most tolerant and open-minded people in the world. Quite remarkably so.
Everyone, including Nicola, is ignoring the numbers because it doesn't suit the narrative. Until the SNP offer something tangible to the Yes/Leavers then independence for Scotland is not on the cards. The EU is not a large enough motivating factor for No/Remainers but it is much bigger for Yes/Leavers. Unionism is more important to the vast majority of No/Remainers and being properly independent is a big factor to enough Yes/Leavers that the numbers don't stack up.
What Nicola needs to offer is EEA accession. If she campaigns on that rather than full EU membership then there is no doubt the numbers exist to deliver a Yes vote.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
That's exactly how I feel. The EU probably expect to frighten us into accepting the four freedoms, or even changing our minds entirely.
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
I must admit to disagreeing with both you and Phil.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
If they think they can extract a large sum from us, or can get valuable industries to move to their countries, then of course they will. That's because they are acting - as they morally must - in their own interest.
But, there is a difference between a country acting in its own interests and actively looking to make a political example of a deserter.
I would count Australia-UK as an example of the former, and the EU-UK the latter.
So the EU would be better off responding to independence movements within its members in the way the British Empire did?
That's with a swift transition to independence then. Under the original CO plans, for example, Kenya might have become independent by 1974.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
Everyone, including Nicola, is ignoring the numbers because it doesn't suit the narrative. Until the SNP offer something tangible to the Yes/Leavers then independence for Scotland is not on the cards. The EU is not a large enough motivating factor for No/Remainers but it is much bigger for Yes/Leavers. Unionism is more important to the vast majority of No/Remainers and being properly independent is a big factor to enough Yes/Leavers that the numbers don't stack up.
What Nicola needs to offer is EEA accession. If she campaigns on that rather than full EU membership then there is no doubt the numbers exist to deliver a Yes vote.
The trouble there is immigration. Scotland staying in the EU (or EEA) means keeping free movement.
I watched the BBC news last night and found it very interesting that a Yes/Leave voter had moved to No because of immigration control.
On the forthcoming negotiations - I still can't believe May has chucked out single market membership before the negotiations begin. It wasn't a particularly strong card, but it WAS definitely a card..
Everyone, including Nicola, is ignoring the numbers because it doesn't suit the narrative. Until the SNP offer something tangible to the Yes/Leavers then independence for Scotland is not on the cards. The EU is not a large enough motivating factor for No/Remainers but it is much bigger for Yes/Leavers. Unionism is more important to the vast majority of No/Remainers and being properly independent is a big factor to enough Yes/Leavers that the numbers don't stack up.
What Nicola needs to offer is EEA accession. If she campaigns on that rather than full EU membership then there is no doubt the numbers exist to deliver a Yes vote.
The trouble there is immigration. Scotland staying in the EU (or EEA) means keeping free movement.
I watched the BBC news last night and found it very interesting that a Yes/Leave voter had moved to No because of immigration control.
The few that I know or have read about don't see the iint of replacing Westminster with Brussels which is even more remote and even less responsive, plus Scotland is a net beneficiary in the UK it would be a net contributor in the EU, the swing is about £7bn. That's not a small amount of money for a smaller nation.
Everyone, including Nicola, is ignoring the numbers because it doesn't suit the narrative. Until the SNP offer something tangible to the Yes/Leavers then independence for Scotland is not on the cards. The EU is not a large enough motivating factor for No/Remainers but it is much bigger for Yes/Leavers. Unionism is more important to the vast majority of No/Remainers and being properly independent is a big factor to enough Yes/Leavers that the numbers don't stack up.
What Nicola needs to offer is EEA accession. If she campaigns on that rather than full EU membership then there is no doubt the numbers exist to deliver a Yes vote.
The trouble there is immigration. Scotland staying in the EU (or EEA) means keeping free movement.
I watched the BBC news last night and found it very interesting that a Yes/Leave voter had moved to No because of immigration control.
The few that I know or have read about don't see the iint of replacing Westminster with Brussels which is even more remote and even less responsive, plus Scotland is a net beneficiary in the UK it would be a net contributor in the EU, the swing is about £7bn. That's not a small amount of money for a smaller nation.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
Try China. Try being black in Japan. It's beyond racism to a simple failure to equate them as fellow human beings.
And the caste system in India. The worst cases of casual abuse I have ever seen have been in India.
There’s quite a skin colour gradation class system in Thailand. One doesn’t very often see a dark skinned Thai at the top of business or politics.
On the forthcoming negotiations - I still can't believe May has chucked out single market membership before the negotiations begin. It wasn't a particularly strong card, but it WAS definitely a card..
Because the goal is free single market access plus immigration control. Leaving full single market membership on the table weakens the main plan.
I tended to equate the Dutch with the Scandinavians when it comes to being relatively liberal. so I'm surprised Wilders ever became so popular. There's also something of a backlash in Denmark.
I'm sure it wasn't there a decade or two ago. Are there any ex-natives of those places (eg Nick Palmer) who could advise?
As far as Norway is concerned it has certainly been there for many decades. Like the Netherlands it is quite a conservative country with a very strong religious streak and is also riddled with right wing extremism. The idea of Scandinavian liberalism, whilst probably pretty accurate in the mainstream and in governance, is no where near as apparent when immersed in the population.
For the record my favourite country in many ways - the Netherlands- is also the country where I witnessed the most extreme examples of casual public racism.
Interesting. My brother's family are Dutch (he's lived in Amsterdam for 35 years) so I go over quite a bit. There is a specific probem with second and third generation Morroccans but I'm surprised you've seen much 'casual racism'. Unlike the Middle East or the US where 'casual racism' is endemic I can't say I've seen any in Holland and as a nationality they do tend to be quite measured.
You can't beat southern and eastern Europe for casual racism. The UK is genuinely a shining star not just in Europe, but globally.
The casual racism I hear in everyday conversation among educated upper middle class Indonesians - never gainsayed or challenged - would make your blood run cold. For all it's faults, Britain is pretty good.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
I Maybe it's just me, but I really can't see "Vote YES so your kids can study History of Art in Florence" working as a campaign slogan.
I just saw Dawn Foster (Guardian columnist) on Sky News.
When asked how Brexit had affected her she said - with a straight face - that her friends have experienced a lot more racism and that they are considering leaving the country to live in one where there is more free movement.
Really?
I can't think of one incident/comment/example of racism I've experienced in the few years pre-Brexit or any since. And I know nobody who is leaving the UK.
Guardian columnists live in a very different universe to me. The 'keep-saying-it-and-hopefully-it-will-come-true' universe.
I just had my first real life story of backwards Indian culture. A woman who lives opposite my mum's friend who we're visiting committed suicide recently because she was unable to file for a divorce. The husband then poisoned the children as revenge. His family paid off the police/judge and he's out of prison after 2 months. They have already lined up a new wife for him. WTF?!?
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for starters.
Ah, I understand. It's your innate hatred of Hartlepool rising up again.
I doubt you know any more about Hartlepool than Roger does
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
On the forthcoming negotiations - I still can't believe May has chucked out single market membership before the negotiations begin. It wasn't a particularly strong card, but it WAS definitely a card..
What the balance of UK public opinion wants is full single market access, immigration control, regional cooperation, but no political union.
It's been made clear to the UK by the EU that's not on offer, so the UK is starting its negotiating position from scratch.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
A silly old codger's dream of endless upper middle class youth loafing on the Continent circa 1967.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
A silly old codger's dream of endless upper middle class youth loafing on the Continent circa 1967.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
They'll be required to use the Euro if they wish to rejoin the European Union. The pound will be their currecny in the meantime - though the BoE will NOT become lender of last resort.
Which means that they need to get into the EU asap as they'll want the ECB to fulfill that function. The 3% deficit target won't be without a fair amount of pain - though ultimately it will benefit the Scots.
Comments
Employers are allowed to ban employees from wearing visible religious symbols including headscarves, the European Court of Justice has ruled
Some common sense there!
In the Netherlands, as Alastair notes, Wilders is under 20%, but the PR system enables numerous parties to thrive, so everyone else is too. The point, though, is that Wilders has virtually no support from other parties, so his views, as in Denmark, are limited to a fifth of the electorate. I think that there's a nationalist/populist 20% potential in virtually every country, which is periodically realised when someone catches the mood, but it rarely goes further than that, and never in Northern Europe.
On topic, I've been plugging the Greens as good value to come top, and at their Betfair price of 75 they are still a fair investment of a couple of quid. But as HYUFD notes, the final event was a debate between Wilders and the VVD leader Rutte, and that's likely to polarise votes. Since most voters are anti-Wilders, that will help the VVD more than the PVV, so they ought to be favourites, but they aren't, presumably because punters are projecting from Trump and Brexit to expect another populist win. I'm therefore on the VVD myself. My only hesitation is that Wilders may outpoll the poll ratings if there's a "shy PVV" factor.The polls are here (note that half a dozen are all from ysterday):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
Incidentally,to reply to The White Rabbit, the position will reflect rather than worry Corbyn. The PvdA has massively lost ground because they're a moderate left party that has been in coalition with the centre-right. They've lost huge numbers of votes to the Green Left and the Socialist Party, both of whom are very similar to Corbyn (the former more Green, of course, the latter more traditionalhard left). I suspect the same would happen in Britain with PR - what keeps the centre-left going is that under FPTP they can reasonably say they have a better chance of winning.
Mr. Bojabob, anecdote? The veracity of my wiffle stick is beyond doubt.
It should be none of their business.
The lawyer for his daughter said that she can do what she want with her money and if she wants to give it to her parents that's her choice...
But I think it far more likely it hardens attitudes on our side of the Channel, and sours the milk.
27-24
24-20
24-24
With what's going on on the streets, I would make the PVV favourites, but a tie for first place - a nice earner for Betfair - seems a substantial possibility.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39262158
Symbolism!
The letter will be printed on foolscap paper, because A4 has an area equal to a sixteenth of that abomination, a square metre.
The EU, and more importantly in this case, the leaders of the countries that make up the EU, are determined to extract the biggest price from the UK, because that is what is in their interest. Why would we expect them to act in any way other than their interest?
If they think they can extract a large sum from us, or can get valuable industries to move to their countries, then of course they will. That's because they are acting - as they morally must - in their own interest.
https://twitter.com/ADBremner/status/841577380019863552
(a) keep Andrew Cooper out of it
(b) make Scotland an offer it can't refuse
As part of the UK, Scots can directly influence global trade deals, access a UN security council seat, have control over agriculture, fisheries and migration quotas at Holyrood, maintain senior command posts in the British armed forces, and have every prospect of supplying the Chancellor and PM again in future at Westminster. They may also benefit from future more liberal visa arrangements with ANZAC countries.
They won't get any of that by staying in the EU. And as a very small country (19 of 27 in population) are likely to be led rather than lead.
I would count Australia-UK as an example of the former, and the EU-UK the latter.
https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/841578106414546945
Offering more devolution would be terrible strategy. The whole idea that after Brexit Scotland would be better off inside the EU, with the border becoming an external EU one, is a porky and should be treated as such. She should invite Sturgeon to give her input into the back-office side of the British negotiating effort.
I bear no grudge at all for liberals, centrists, and soft conservatives in such nations being strongly pro-EU on the basis it will lift up and develop them over-and-above what could happen if they did not join.
But, it isn't for us.
And as he voted Remain and to show the coming together after Brexit, the man in tights should be The Speaker, John Bercow.....
EDIT: I forgot the Red Arrows fly-pass....
If that isn't possible press conference, followed by a formal dispatch and shortly after a release of the text to the media.
Scotland will be leaving the EU as a part of the UK regardless of the Sindy Ref II result, timescales dictate that.
They have different choices available to them to Luxembourg.
What Nicola needs to offer is EEA accession. If she campaigns on that rather than full EU membership then there is no doubt the numbers exist to deliver a Yes vote.
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
I watched the BBC news last night and found it very interesting that a Yes/Leave voter had moved to No because of immigration control.
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/841580056363323392
When asked how Brexit had affected her she said - with a straight face - that her friends have experienced a lot more racism and that they are considering leaving the country to live in one where there is more free movement.
Really?
I can't think of one incident/comment/example of racism I've experienced in the few years pre-Brexit or any since. And I know nobody who is leaving the UK.
Guardian columnists live in a very different universe to me. The 'keep-saying-it-and-hopefully-it-will-come-true' universe.
It's been made clear to the UK by the EU that's not on offer, so the UK is starting its negotiating position from scratch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39264769
Which means that they need to get into the EU asap as they'll want the ECB to fulfill that function. The 3% deficit target won't be without a fair amount of pain - though ultimately it will benefit the Scots.