Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
Doing a bit of casual empiricism (eyeballing the numbers, rather than doing the maths), it looks like the CDA and D66 tend to do slightly better than their poll scores, and the Greens tend to fall short. Might be worth a tiny bet on both CDA and D66 to top the polls.
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
I'll take him at his word, but he would I hope admit his past messages on the platform would certainly give reason to suspect he had been obliquely referring to other matters.
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
What does that mean for Trump in 2020?
I think if Trump delivers on his promise to bring prosperity back to forgotten America, he will win (and rightfully so) big in 2020.
But if circumstances continue to deteriorate in these places, and the opiate epidemic continues, then they will feel betrayed by the smooth talking New York billionaire, and I doubt he'll even be the candidate.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
What does that mean for Trump in 2020?
The GOP is a massively established party. It is one of the key differences alot of punters are missing especially comparing him to Le Pen/FN.
Nothing so far indicates to me Trump will lose in 2020, nothing also indicates to me Le Pen will win.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
Didn't she write the rule book when COO of the B of E?
She can hardly say she was not aware of the rules.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
As someone who works in the regulatory/compliance field in the Banking/Financial Services Industry if I had made a mistake like this, I'd be getting my p45 straight away, although I would have plead the Hogg defence which makes the BoE's life even more complicated.
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
What does that mean for Trump in 2020?
The GOP is a massively established party. It is one of the key differences alot of punters are missing especially comparing him to Le Pen/FN.
If Trump looks like a loser in 2020, he will be challenged in the Primaries. I'd go further, if Trump has a difficult four years, then he'd rather step down than lose.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
A likely scenario is the EU kicks the can down the road (that is what it does best) with a heavy divorce payment demand, and a lengthy transition deal of 7+ years, that prolongs UK uncertainty, limits its flexibility, but gives the EU/eurozone time to move its financial dependence away from London.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager les autres even though the citizens they represent (but are not accountable to) will bear twice the adverse impact of that judging from the imbalance in trade. My reaction to that is that it totally sweeps away the cosy image of internationalist cooperation with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
A likely scenario is the EU kicks the can down the road (that is what it does best) with a heavy divorce payment demand, and a lengthy transition deal of 7+ years, that prolongs UK uncertainty, limits its flexibility, but gives the EU/eurozone time to move its financial dependence away from London.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
From what I understand, we're the ones asking for the transition period, and they're the ones looking for a clean break. I'll find my sources and post them.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
Didn't she write the rule book when COO of the B of E?
She can hardly say she was not aware of the rules.
She's either a mental defective or dishonest. Had to go.
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
Doing a bit of casual empiricism (eyeballing the numbers, rather than doing the maths), it looks like the CDA and D66 tend to do slightly better than their poll scores, and the Greens tend to fall short. Might be worth a tiny bet on both CDA and D66 to top the polls.
What's worse on this site? Casual empiricism, or casual racism?
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
A likely scenario is the EU kicks the can down the road (that is what it does best) with a heavy divorce payment demand, and a lengthy transition deal of 7+ years, that prolongs UK uncertainty, limits its flexibility, but gives the EU/eurozone time to move its financial dependence away from London.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
From what I understand, we're the ones asking for the transition period, and they're the ones looking for a clean break. I'll find my sources and post them.
I understood Barnier was very much in favour of a transition period.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
Didn't she write the rule book when COO of the B of E?
She can hardly say she was not aware of the rules.
She's either a mental defective or dishonest. Had to go.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
"MPs on the Treasury Committee said she "fell short of the very high standards" required."
In fact a very low standard to remember your brother works in one of the banks you are regulating when you were responsible for writing the rulebook in the first place.
Reflects on her she did not resign as soon as it was pointed out she misled the Committee.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
i) They can ii) Defending the peg would be the problem - the market would see it as a 'one way bet' and the Scots pound would be under pressure from day 1. While Scotland continues to spend more than it earns it will be reliant on the kindness of strangers - who are likely to extract a hefty price for their kindness, compounding the problem.
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
"MPs on the Treasury Committee said she "fell short of the very high standards" required."
In fact a very low standard to remember your brother works in one of the banks you are regulating when you were responsible for writing the rulebook in the first place.
Reflects on her she did not resign as soon as it was pointed out she misled the Committee.
"But I fully accept it was a mistake, made worse by the fact that my involvement in drafting the policy made it incumbent on me to get all my own declarations absolutely right. I also, in the course of a long hearing, unintentionally misled the committee as to whether I had filed my brother's job on the correct forms at the Bank. I would like to repeat my apologies for that, and to make clear that the responsibility for all those errors is mine alone."
Employers are entitled to ban workers from the "visible wearing of any political, philosophical or religious sign" including headscarves, Europe's top court has ruled.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
I can just see the crowds of eager youngScotsat glasgie airport queueing up for a chance to get into the Ufizi
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In my case as someone who voted for Brexit it is the realisation that the EU elite is absolutely determined to do their utmost to stuff the UK to discourager with our so called "friends" on the continent which was promoted as part of the Remain campaign. Now that they're revealed as false friends my attitude towards them has hardened and I am more committed to Brexit than I was.
Well you are a typical Brexiteer then. You expected to join a club where there were special rules for you and on discovering that the other 27 members also had entitlements you wanted out. Then on discovering that the other 27 were going to protect their interests you had a fit of the vapours. "DONT THEY KNOW WHO WE ARE!!!"
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
A likely scenario is the EU kicks the can down the road (that is what it does best) with a heavy divorce payment demand, and a lengthy transition deal of 7+ years, that prolongs UK uncertainty, limits its flexibility, but gives the EU/eurozone time to move its financial dependence away from London.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
From what I understand, we're the ones asking for the transition period, and they're the ones looking for a clean break. I'll find my sources and post them.
Yes I always thought it was us wanting the transition. Presumably to Leavers a Transition Period = not leaving. @Casino_Royale ?
Inevitable. She put the Bank of England in a very awkward position, and gave the perception that the rules were for the little plebians.
Which they are of course, but you're not supposed to make that obvious. Given the usual way is to make sure the rules are light so they don't inconvenience, I presume it was an innocent error, but very careless.
Didn't she write the rule book when COO of the B of E?
She can hardly say she was not aware of the rules.
She's either a mental defective or dishonest. Had to go.
Or she hates her brother. One of those options.
That's not one of the options - it's not 'declare a potential conflict of interest unless you hate the person'. Is it an offence that means this outcome was necessary? That's arguable, but it was still needless and entirely her own fault it seems. It is not hard to declare potential interests. So 'careless' at best.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
I can just see the crowds of eager youngScotsat glasgie airport queueing up for a chance to get into the Ufizi
Snobbery & 'hilarious' Scottish phonetic spellings, a delicious cocktail.
@TheScreamingEagles - It's a bit like when McDonnell talks about Blair losing Labour five million votes.
Moving to a new, bigger stadium is the lot of the problem. Is there another club that paid for their own stadium that hasn't been relegated?
You attract 20,000 new fans who haven't experienced any bad times and expect constant success. Most of my mates are West Ham fans and they are exasperated by the newbies who are complaining that its been a bad season for them this time! This is a normal to good season for West Ham, they are a mid table club, who sometimes get relegated.
98-04 was Arsenals best post war spell, it wasnt normal. Since then, ten years in the top 4 in England and last 16 in Europe is better than most fans could dream of.
What has probably lead to Brexit more than anything else is the UK not following the EU's own rules/guidelines when it comes to immigration.
They gave a few hundred yards leeway (Check out Belgium's rules for incoming workers; contributory benefits system & also the phased new member rules we could have applied), however Blair took a mile. Now alot of people didn't want an inch but with hindsight the EU's 400 yards was a perfectly good compromise !
@TheScreamingEagles - It's a bit like when McDonnell talks about Blair losing Labour five million votes.
Crazy.
It's funny he never gets credit for gaining those votes in the first place.
All votes are definitely not equal, a broadly centrist Blair-Cameron party switcher in a small town is worth far more than a non voter-> Corbyn in a safe inner city left leaning seat.
@TheScreamingEagles - It's a bit like when McDonnell talks about Blair losing Labour five million votes.
Moving to a new, bigger stadium is the lot of the problem. Is there another club that paid for their own stadium that hasn't been relegated?
You attract 20,000 new fans who haven't experienced any bad times and expect constant success. Most of my mates are West Ham fans and they are exasperated by the newbies who are complaining that its been a bad season for them this time! This is a normal to good season for West Ham, they are a mid table club, who sometimes get relegated.
98-04 was Arsenals best post war spell, it wasnt normal. Since then, ten years in the top 4 in England and last 16 in Europe is better than most fans could dream of.
Some Arsenal fans don't realise these are the good times for them.
All they have to do is not select a complete nutcase and they have another MP for life. Choose wisely, Gorton.
Outsiders may wonder how significant union endorsement is - does this make the MEP the favourite. Usually, not much (Falkirk was the obvious exception) - unions are not organised by constituency, so there isn't usually an easy way to convert a union endorsement into an appeal to all local union members. In the run-up to 2015 in my patch, all the major unions except USDAW endorsed one of my competitors, who came third.
But by-elections are a little different, because the NEC panel sets the short-list. I think those endorsements should see him onto the short-list. Only one of the two Momentum applicants seems likely to make it. As in other recent by-elections, I suspect that being local will count more than anything else.
Maybe Mrs May should not say NO to a Sindy2 referendum but say LATER (after Brexit is sorted). Meanwhile she can devolve alot more power and self determination to Scotland and kill Barnett. Devomax is probably a good way to get a NO vote again. The Scots actually quite like the Pound, the BBC, the queen, the armed services and all the other institutions of the UK.
....and they also like Paris and Rome and Amsterdam and Venice and the idea that they can send their kids to study the history of art in Florence as easily as they can Cowdenbeath polytechnic or get a bar job on the Champs-Elysee and learn French as easily as they can Costa on Oldham High St.
I can just see the crowds of eager youngScotsat glasgie airport queueing up for a chance to get into the Ufizi
Snobbery & 'hilarious' Scottish phonetic spellings, a delicious cocktail.
It's 'Uffizi' btw.
I too was shocked by Roger's snobbery. Cowdenbeath has every bit as much to offer youngsters as Paris, Rome, Florence or Amsterdam.
Poor Alistair Meeks, the European Hairy Mammoth separated from the rest of the herd by the mega tsunami of the referendum vote
Alastair has so far been shown to be right. We are just approaching day one of Brexit and already it starting to assume the fetid smell of necrosis
What has genuinely changed since the referendum?
It is the slow realisation by those who voted Brexit because they don't like foreigners-which is most of them- that there are complications. Like the end of the United Kingdom for example.
In
Well blockquote>
Yes, It's the epitome of British arrogance and it's why we are going to be stuffed over the next few years. Those nasty Europeans, wanting their cake and eating it...
A likely scenario is the EU kicks the can down the road (that is what it does best) with a heavy divorce payment demand, and a lengthy transition deal of 7+ years, that prolongs UK uncertainty, limits its flexibility, but gives the EU/eurozone time to move its financial dependence away from London.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
From what I understand, we're the ones asking for the transition period, and they're the ones looking for a clean break. I'll find my sources and post them.
Yes I always thought it was us wanting the transition. Presumably to Leavers a Transition Period = not leaving. @Casino_Royale ?
I think a transition period of 2-4 years would be sensible, as I've said before, leading to pre-negotiated permanent arrangements.
@TheScreamingEagles - It's a bit like when McDonnell talks about Blair losing Labour five million votes.
Moving to a new, bigger stadium is the lot of the problem. Is there another club that paid for their own stadium that hasn't been relegated?
You attract 20,000 new fans who haven't experienced any bad times and expect constant success. Most of my mates are West Ham fans and they are exasperated by the newbies who are complaining that its been a bad season for them this time! This is a normal to good season for West Ham, they are a mid table club, who sometimes get relegated.
98-04 was Arsenals best post war spell, it wasnt normal. Since then, ten years in the top 4 in England and last 16 in Europe is better than most fans could dream of.
Interesting, this is purely anecdotal based on a very small sample, but I get the sense that there are some older fans who resent having had to leave Highbury. They don't see why they should have had to suffer austerity so that people like me could get a ticket.
As it is I think we're well past that stage and the club is spending big money now, albeit not very well.
@TheScreamingEagles - It's a bit like when McDonnell talks about Blair losing Labour five million votes.
Moving to a new, bigger stadium is the lot of the problem. Is there another club that paid for their own stadium that hasn't been relegated?
You attract 20,000 new fans who haven't experienced any bad times and expect constant success. Most of my mates are West Ham fans and they are exasperated by the newbies who are complaining that its been a bad season for them this time! This is a normal to good season for West Ham, they are a mid table club, who sometimes get relegated.
98-04 was Arsenals best post war spell, it wasnt normal. Since then, ten years in the top 4 in England and last 16 in Europe is better than most fans could dream of.
Interesting, this is purely anecdotal based on a very small sample, but I get the sense that there are some older fans who resent having had to leave Highbury. They don't see why they should have had to suffer austerity so that people like me could get a ticket.
As it is I think we're well past that stage and the club is spending big money now, albeit not very well.
I don't really mid the Austerity, Highbury was just better. It was unique, beautiful and was ours. The Emirates (how I hate that name) just feels like any other corporate sports arena. The tv money negated the need to move stadium now anyway (much as I think technology will make immigration unnecessary)
If I go to football now Ill just watch local non league/League 2 sides. Its like being back in the 80s! Premier League is better on the tv
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
Hmm, it's not an easy option at all. With the state of the Scottish public finances, the Scottish pound would be an immediate one-way bet-target of speculators, and the speculators would win. Comparisons with small countries which peg their currencies to another currency aren't very valid because those countries don't tend to have significant financial services sectors, which Scotland does.
From time to time one comes across an item of historical interest that was a complete void. So it was this morning when listening to R4. The Great Hedge of India was the subject - and its comparator, the Trump wall with Mexico. Built by the British to regulate the smuggling of salt it covered a distance of 2500 miles. It was largely the work of Allan Octavian Hume, the then Commissioner of Customs. It has now almost completely disappeared - and Hume became the founding father of the Indian National Congress.
Why don't Arsenal fans just call 'The Emirates', Highbury? I still call it that. It's near enough in Highbury after all (and the old stadium wasn't officially called Highbury either). The new White Hart Lane will be called White Hart Lane I should imagine as it's on the same site, regardless of what the numbnut New Football sponsor-monkeys say and want.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
Hmm, it's not an easy option at all. With the state of the Scottish public finances, the Scottish pound would be an immediate one-way bet-target of speculators, and the speculators would win. Comparisons with small countries which peg their currencies to another currency aren't very valid because those countries don't tend to have significant financial services sectors, which Scotland does.
They really do need a fast track plan to get back in the EU, the Euro as their currency looks the only option to me. I think Spain will allow them - but the EU will insist on all the rules being followed to the letter. My question which hasn't been answered by the nats is what taxes will be put up, and spending cut (For it HAS to be both with such a large adjustment) in order for the 3% deficit target to be met. It is 8 or so % iirc at the moment... A large fiscal hole. Fast track to entry = Fast cutting of deficit to 3%.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
the reason he didnt do it was because the sPound will fall off a cliff when trying to service a 10% deficit and therecession that will inevitably follow
you got all excited about the £ value post Brexit, maybe you can imagine that times 2
F1: Ladbrokes have the winner market for Australia up. Nothing stands out, save that six drivers are pretty short and after that there are enormo-odds.
Why don't Arsenal fans just call 'The Emirates', Highbury? I still call it that. It's near enough in Highbury after all (and the old stadium wasn't officially called Highbury either). The new White Hart Lane will be called White Hart Lane I should imagine as it's on the same site, regardless of what the numbnut New Football sponsor-monkeys say and want.
I suspect no-one in Newcastle refers to the football ground as other than St James Park. Although I understand that Sunderland has got used to the Stadium of Light.
Where the light, or has been for the past few years is a different question. Roker Park had a ‘feel’ to it!
They really do need a fast track plan to get back in the EU, the Euro as their currency looks the only option to me. I think Spain will allow them - but the EU will insist on all the rules being followed to the letter. My question which hasn't been answered by the nats is what taxes will be put up, and spending cut (For it HAS to be both with such a large adjustment) in order for the 3% deficit target to be met. It is 8 or so % iirc at the moment... A large fiscal hole. Fast track to entry = Fast cutting of deficit to 3%.
To get into the Euro, they'd first have to have their own currency, and it would have to float against the pound, which would be disruptive given how tightly-knit the Scottish and rUK economies are. They'd then have to try to keep the rate to a range against the Euro and gradually peg it to the Euro. It could be done, but it would take time, and as you say they'd first have to get their public finances in order.
F1: Ladbrokes have the winner market for Australia up. Nothing stands out, save that six drivers are pretty short and after that there are enormo-odds.
Aren't most drivers (apart form the Hulk...) pretty short these days ?
Why don't Arsenal fans just call 'The Emirates', Highbury? I still call it that. It's near enough in Highbury after all (and the old stadium wasn't officially called Highbury either). The new White Hart Lane will be called White Hart Lane I should imagine as it's on the same site, regardless of what the numbnut New Football sponsor-monkeys say and want.
I suspect no-one in Newcastle refers to the football ground as other than St James Park. Although I understand that Sunderland has got used to the Stadium of Light.
Where the light, or has been for the past few years is a different question. Roker Park had a ‘feel’ to it!
The Stadium of shite is not however a sponsored name. It just describes the location better - not that near Roker and on a former pit...
Just how much will we have the phenomenon of Shy Wildlings, I wonder?
The PVV has typically performed about 1-1.5% better than its polls. I'm going to do an analysis of who does better than polls, and who does worse.
Very good!
I was wrong :-(
I looked up the last three elections and compared the polls with the actuals. Here they are:
Election Year PVV opinion poll PVV actual Difference Senate Elections 2015 13.0 12.0 -1.0 European Elections 2014 17.2 13.3 -3.9 General Election 2012 11.4 10.1 -1.3
Do you have the VVD figures ?
Not yet. I have work to do, but will see what I can find.
It was 2010 where the PVV overperformed that's what you're remembering
You are right. I think when parties are first emerging, and bring people into the political process who were previously excluded, then they tend to outperform their poll ratings.
What does that mean for Trump in 2020?
The GOP is a massively established party. It is one of the key differences alot of punters are missing especially comparing him to Le Pen/FN.
If Trump looks like a loser in 2020, he will be challenged in the Primaries. I'd go further, if Trump has a difficult four years, then he'd rather step down than lose.
That may well be the case - but it doesn't really address the (perhaps single biggest) GOP problem, which is that any healthcare 'reform' they enact is likely to be massively unpopular with a large slug of their voters.
Why don't Arsenal fans just call 'The Emirates', Highbury? I still call it that. It's near enough in Highbury after all (and the old stadium wasn't officially called Highbury either). The new White Hart Lane will be called White Hart Lane I should imagine as it's on the same site, regardless of what the numbnut New Football sponsor-monkeys say and want.
I suspect no-one in Newcastle refers to the football ground as other than St James Park. Although I understand that Sunderland has got used to the Stadium of Light.
Where the light, or has been for the past few years is a different question. Roker Park had a ‘feel’ to it!
A least the Stadium of Light is a name with some sort of footballing and historic pedigree (taken from Benfica's ground name and a reference to the lights of the miners). It's not named after some soulless faceless sponsor.
I think St James' Park was officially called the Sports Direct Arena for a while – nobody but nobody ever called it that apart from the quislings on Sky Sports.
They really do need a fast track plan to get back in the EU, the Euro as their currency looks the only option to me. I think Spain will allow them - but the EU will insist on all the rules being followed to the letter. My question which hasn't been answered by the nats is what taxes will be put up, and spending cut (For it HAS to be both with such a large adjustment) in order for the 3% deficit target to be met. It is 8 or so % iirc at the moment... A large fiscal hole. Fast track to entry = Fast cutting of deficit to 3%.
To get into the Euro, they'd first have to have their own currency, and it would have to float against the pound, which would be disruptive given how tightly-knit the Scottish and rUK economies are. They'd then have to try to keep the rate to a range against the Euro and gradually peg it to the Euro. It could be done, but it would take time, and as you say they'd first have to get their public finances in order.
I think the EU may well give goodwill. HOWEVER it would need a firm commitment to raising taxes and cutting public spending by Sturgeon.
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
the reason he didnt do it was because the sPound will fall off a cliff when trying to service a 10% deficit and therecession that will inevitably follow
you got all excited about the £ value post Brexit, maybe you can imagine that times 2
And it would be expensive to do - even back in the day of $100+ oil.....:
The ball-park cost of setting up a separate currency, purely in terms of the foreign exchange reserves required, is a minimum £40bn. This is the sum of money similar sized Nordic countries - such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden - need to run a variety of different independent currency regimes, from a float to a fixed rate, and a managed float
Why can't the Scots have their own currency called the pound, keep their own notes, and peg it to ours? I don't see that this requires our permission, and is what various places such as the Channel Islands are already doing. The US also has various countries that peg their currencies to the dollar, mostly small countries and dependencies but also, effectively, China.
Indeed they can do exactly that. Salmond's failing to suggest it last time was one of the great strategic errors in recent electoral history.
the reason he didnt do it was because the sPound will fall off a cliff when trying to service a 10% deficit and therecession that will inevitably follow
you got all excited about the £ value post Brexit, maybe you can imagine that times 2
And it would be expensive to do - even back in the day of $100+ oil.....:
The ball-park cost of setting up a separate currency, purely in terms of the foreign exchange reserves required, is a minimum £40bn. This is the sum of money similar sized Nordic countries - such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden - need to run a variety of different independent currency regimes, from a float to a fixed rate, and a managed float
Comments
Bank of England announcement
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/841583792380887040
http://www.rail-online.co.uk/p792179482/h93BDEB7#h93bdeb7
But if circumstances continue to deteriorate in these places, and the opiate epidemic continues, then they will feel betrayed by the smooth talking New York billionaire, and I doubt he'll even be the candidate.
https://twitter.com/MundialMag/status/841413020274294784
Nothing so far indicates to me Trump will lose in 2020, nothing also indicates to me Le Pen will win.
She can hardly say she was not aware of the rules.
1.81 is certainly way way too short for the PVV especially as CdA, D66, PvDA and the greens are all live rags.
It would then want to wait until we're fully out (cold) in the 2020s before seeing how our regulatory environment developed and discussing a limited new goods/services trade agreement with us.
That's why I agree with Government sources who rate the chances of "no deal" at between 30-50%.
Under those circumstances that'd actually be better.
Grateful for your sources.
In fact a very low standard to remember your brother works in one of the banks you are regulating when you were responsible for writing the rulebook in the first place.
Reflects on her she did not resign as soon as it was pointed out she misled the Committee.
ii) Defending the peg would be the problem - the market would see it as a 'one way bet' and the Scots pound would be under pressure from day 1. While Scotland continues to spend more than it earns it will be reliant on the kindness of strangers - who are likely to extract a hefty price for their kindness, compounding the problem.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/14/libdem-peer-brexit-like-hitler-mussolini-and-stalin/
"But I fully accept it was a mistake, made worse by the fact that my involvement in drafting the policy made it incumbent on me to get all my own declarations absolutely right. I also, in the course of a long hearing, unintentionally misled the committee as to whether I had filed my brother's job on the correct forms at the Bank. I would like to repeat my apologies for that, and to make clear that the responsibility for all those errors is mine alone."
Why the 'but'?
EU workplace headscarf ban is legal, says ECJ
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39264845
http://labourlist.org/2017/03/deadline-for-cvs-in-manchester-gorton-passes-as-councillor-and-momentum-activist-enter-selection-race/
It's 'Uffizi' btw.
You attract 20,000 new fans who haven't experienced any bad times and expect constant success. Most of my mates are West Ham fans and they are exasperated by the newbies who are complaining that its been a bad season for them this time! This is a normal to good season for West Ham, they are a mid table club, who sometimes get relegated.
98-04 was Arsenals best post war spell, it wasnt normal. Since then, ten years in the top 4 in England and last 16 in Europe is better than most fans could dream of.
They gave a few hundred yards leeway (Check out Belgium's rules for incoming workers; contributory benefits system & also the phased new member rules we could have applied), however Blair took a mile.
Now alot of people didn't want an inch but with hindsight the EU's 400 yards was a perfectly good compromise !
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmtreasy/1092/1092.pdf
May mayoral elections in England: only 2 of 6 combined authority areas have employment rates above national average https://t.co/Upqh2Rw0Uf
A transition is fine. We have a lot to do, so it will be of practical benefit and will help to shoot Sturgeon's fox.
12 months would be perfect.
But by-elections are a little different, because the NEC panel sets the short-list. I think those endorsements should see him onto the short-list. Only one of the two Momentum applicants seems likely to make it. As in other recent by-elections, I suspect that being local will count more than anything else.
As it is I think we're well past that stage and the club is spending big money now, albeit not very well.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/841540190426521600
http://labourlist.org/2017/03/the-activists-aiming-to-be-labours-next-mp-in-manchester-gorton/
Seems to be a shortage of Spads and PPE wonks on that list.
Also a lack of Ed Balls and David Miliband.
I for one am very grateful to Gina Miller for tidying up constitutional ends.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Cunningham#Cunningham.E2.80.99s_Law
@Stodge advised you definitely shouldn't spunk your hard earned on these.
Bunk Off Early @ 11/2
Royal Caviar @ 14/1
Petit Mouchoir @ 7/1
Vroum Vroum Mag @ 3/1
So I have a £1 win, and a £2 E/W lucky 15
I've also added a single and E/W on Vroum Vroum Mag.....
If I go to football now Ill just watch local non league/League 2 sides. Its like being back in the 80s! Premier League is better on the tv
Nottingham Forest play Derby County on Saturday, the two clubs have changed managers 8 (eight) times since same game last season.
A bonkers statistic.
My question which hasn't been answered by the nats is what taxes will be put up, and spending cut (For it HAS to be both with such a large adjustment) in order for the 3% deficit target to be met. It is 8 or so % iirc at the moment... A large fiscal hole.
Fast track to entry = Fast cutting of deficit to 3%.
you got all excited about the £ value post Brexit, maybe you can imagine that times 2
Carney's First BOE Hire Steps Into Prime Spot to Replace Him
Bloomberg. February 16, 2017.
26 days!!!
Where the light, or has been for the past few years is a different question. Roker Park had a ‘feel’ to it!
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
I think St James' Park was officially called the Sports Direct Arena for a while – nobody but nobody ever called it that apart from the quislings on Sky Sports.
Some might even call it austerity
The ball-park cost of setting up a separate currency, purely in terms of the foreign exchange reserves required, is a minimum £40bn. This is the sum of money similar sized Nordic countries - such as Denmark, Norway and Sweden - need to run a variety of different independent currency regimes, from a float to a fixed rate, and a managed float
http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_358421_en.pdf