Obvious question: does the government have the votes to get the NI changes through?
Assuming a unified opposition, nope it only needs 8 MPs to rebel.
It depends how many Tory MPs get bombarded by the self employed in the next few days.
The opposition won't be unified will it though, Sinn Fein won't be showing up for starters - so you'll need to revise your numbers slightly. Will the DUP manage a full turnout against ?
The Tory majority is 12, becomes 16 with SF abstentions.
I thought it was already illegal to claim self-employed status if you do most of your work for one company.
Uber, Amazon etc etc? They all use "self employed" . no it is not illegal.
Yes it is illegal as you would become ensnared by IR35 legislation – designed to stop 'freelancers' working for a single client.
However, IR35 is a joke.
Yes, it didn't do much to stop those sellafield workers earning £150k a year, paying it into a Ltd company. Paying themselves minimum wage, claiming tax credits and dumping much of the rest into pension funds. Of course that last little wheeze has been done away with.
it maybe illegal but it is not enforced e.g chuggers, network marketing etc all "self employed" people who work for one company/client.
Obvious question: does the government have the votes to get the NI changes through?
Is the budget not a confidence motion?
U-turns have been known in the past - cf cutting tax credits, disability benefit cuts.
Shows weakness, although those hit people who weren't exactly rich. Quite rightly as you move up the income scale sympathy can and should evaporate.
The White Van Tax will also hit lots of people who are far from rich*
*That is not to say it is an unfair measure, simply that it will have consequences and victims.
I think overall it will be neutral or better for anyone at or below average earnings because Class 2 NICs are going away. It could almost be a Labour policy given how progressive the tax is on the income distribution scale. I think it will get a disproportionate amount of coverage because a lot of journalists work as "self employed" despite only writing for a single paper. They may get hit for £400-500 extra this year and again the year after.
Governments don't usually have the guts to say that was then, the situation is different now, so presumably it's either u turn incoming or they'll some how pretend this is not the same thing.
Imagine the hysteria on here if Osborne had tried this...instead of Mrs May and her Chancellor.
I don't see how 2.4% inflation and 2.0% real GDP growth work together. That implies 4.4% underlying income growth, before changes in net exports and gross capital formation. Now, net exports have been disappointing to date, largely thanks to both commodity price rises and declining oil & gas output. Gross capital formation looks likely to drop by about 0.3-0.5% of GDP in 2017 (and I think the risk is largely on the downside).
Together, that suggests that underlying income growth needs to be a little over 5%. That seems optimistic. My view is that income may accelerate slightly from 4%, but getting above 5% is extremely unlikely. (Certainly, it hasn't been achieved since 2007.) The world and the Eurozone economies are accelerating, which helps, but the OBR forecasts feel a little optimistic for this year.
I don't see how 2.4% inflation and 2.0% real GDP growth work together. That implies 4.4% underlying income growth, before changes in net exports and gross capital formation. Now, net exports have been disappointing to date, largely thanks to both commodity price rises and declining oil & gas output. Gross capital formation looks likely to drop by about 0.3-0.5% of GDP in 2017 (and I think the risk is largely on the downside).
Together, that suggests that underlying income growth needs to be a little over 5%. That seems optimistic. My view is that income may accelerate slightly from 4%, but getting above 5% is extremely unlikely. (Certainly, it hasn't been achieved since 2007.) The world and the Eurozone economies are accelerating, which helps, but the OBR forecasts feel a little optimistic for this year.
Getting nervous Robert?
I think they must be assuming a significant improvement in the balance of payments. That may or may not be vindicated.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/mar/08/international-womens-day-2017-protests-activism-strike-live?page=with:block-58c01cf8e4b0f24dba722f36#block-58c01cf8e4b0f24dba722f36
NEW THREAD
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11954740/Tax-credits-Government-faces-defeat-in-the-House-of-Lords-live.html
I think they must be assuming a significant improvement in the balance of payments. That may or may not be vindicated.