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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Times reporting that the Tories are “deeply worried” about

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  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    Sounds as if Trump's proof is an article on Breitbart:

    the Obama administration sought, and eventually obtained, authorization to eavesdrop on the Trump campaign; continued monitoring the Trump team even when no evidence of wrongdoing was found; then relaxed the NSA rules to allow evidence to be shared widely within the government, virtually ensuring that the information, including the conversations of private citizens, would be leaked to the media.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/03/03/mark-levin-obama-used-police-state-tactics-undermine-trump/
    Obama seeking to eavesdrop on an opposition’s Presidential campaign must surely go against ever rule there is. Explosive stuff, if true.
    What utter shite ! It is perfectly natural to eavesdrop on a KGB agent.
    Makes me think of The Simpsons USSR scene.

    Soviet Union? I thought you guys broke up?
    Yes that's what we wanted you to think *evil laugh*
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    More irony than an anvil chucked down an iron ore mine shaft.

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/838050435130863616
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    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Daisley:

    Mrs May’s speech was mostly boilerplate but parse a word here and a clause there and you have the makings of a fresh approach to devolution. Mr Cameron’s respect agenda — which involved him being respectful to the SNP and them respectfully telling him to b****r off — has been replaced by a mutual respect agenda. Downing Street would seek to work with the devolved administration but the good of the Union, not appeasement of the Nationalists, would be the priority.

    The Prime Minister was relaxed, even allowing herself the odd smile. She looks less apprehensive when speaking in Scotland than her old boss did; her shoulders are less hunched, her words less halted by fear of saying the wrong thing. Every few months, Mr Cameron would come north to deliver a ‘defence’ of the Union and every time it would fall flat. By seeking to defend the United Kingdom, he accepted that it was on trial. Mrs May celebrated our shared values and prosecuted a strong case against separatism.

    She gets what Mr Cameron seemed not to: Scotland is her country too, and she needn’t be afraid to talk about it.


    https://stephendaisley.com/2017/03/04/theresa-mays-hymn-to-unity-was-heartfelt-and-robust/

    Cameron went to Scotland pleaded and begged that the Scottish people save the Union they did .He was successful in that regard.
    He was - but I'm not sure he connected in the same way May does:

    The hall loved it. Conservative conferences are a tale of two Tories. The mini-Mogg — suit from John Lewis, politics from John Redwood — and the No-Nonsense Auntie: A doughty, reliable type who knocks the doors, bakes the scones, and handbags Central Office when it gets too carried away with itself. The libertarian mini-Moggs set aside their iffiness about collectivism to rah-rah the Prime Minister’s words while the Aunties, terribly proud to be British but one doesn’t go on about it, thundered in applause.
    May certainly connects better with the Unionists and Conservatives.However I have my doubts she can convince the uncommited who might switch and get Scottish Independence over the 50%.
    That job is for Ruth Davidson complimented by Theresa May
    What's your prediction for the Scottish council elections, the ones that Tessy wants to be a poll on whether there should be an Indy ref II?
    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    It's a diversionary tactic. Attack is the best defence [ or, should I have written "defense" ].
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    It appears trump claims based upon brietbart article are in turn based upon an article by everybodies favourite former pb...

    https://heatst.com/world/exclusive-fbi-granted-fisa-warrant-covering-trump-camps-ties-to-russia/
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    This could be the lifeline we Remainers have been yearning for - Tories lose their majority and parliament scuppers Brexit with a spoiling motion. Well done Michael Crick! Well done Channel 4! The plebs thought they had the pro-European liberal elite bested, but we were only biding our time.

    Huge amounts of ifs there and if may loses her majority you don't think she will go for a GE...Given she is only 14 points ahead.
    If she loses her majority she can't orchestrate an early election.
    Don't you need 2/3 to vote to call an early election? Having a slim majority or not wouldn't factor into that would it, they still need Labour to play ball? And the more convoluted vote of no confidence route would be on the table still, if still problematic for different reasons?
    A simple majority will do - a government can not be bound by its predecessors.

    But the Government does need to first repeal the FTPA, which will require some dedicated effort.

    Other wise yes a (Frankly unahcievable) 2/3 majority is needed.
    Do you think the DUP or the UUP will support them now ? What about boundary changes ?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970
    surbiton said:

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    It's a diversionary tactic. Attack is the best defence [ or, should I have written "defense" ].

    It's a very silly diversionary tactic. It will do the opposite of what he wants.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    Have you gone insane as well ?
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    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    We will see but there is no appetite for a second referendum in Scotland at present but then with your blind devotion to Independence you are unlikely to accept that.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017

    surbiton said:

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    It's a diversionary tactic. Attack is the best defence [ or, should I have written "defense" ].

    It's a very silly diversionary tactic. It will do the opposite of what he wants.

    What I can't believe is that there are people on this site actually entertaining it. I'm not surprised that his claims may be based upon a Breitbart article at all - he's made several tweet related to matters discussed on FOX news before.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,897
    edited March 2017
    OT. Some brilliant and witty work by Banksy. The only current artist who produces worthwhile social commentary. He said of his work

    "My accountant was concerned people would be scared venturing into the West Bank. I reminded him my last show got people to Weston Super Mare"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39156386
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    South African president Jacob Zuma has called on lawmakers to help seize white-owned land without compensation - to establish 'pre-colonial' patterns.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4281088/Zuma-wants-land-owned-white-occupiers-taken.html

    Mugabenomics.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    I think there's a ton of method in his madness. He didn't get to where he is today by making allegations founded on proof.
    After all he also claimed 3m people voted illegally and offered zero evidence whatsoever - it's his modus operandi.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Roger said:

    OT. Some brilliant and witty work by Banksy. The only current artist who produces worthwhile social commentary. He said of his work

    "My accountant was concerned people would be scared venturing into the West Bank. I reminded him my last show got people to Weston Super Mare"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39156386

    Is amazing what you can achieve with a privileged upbringing and a wife connected to parliament.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Eye Spy MP‏
    @eyespymp

    Last night @Ed_Miliband and his wife were mobbed by over 30 intoxicated teenagers screaming "ED WE LOVE YOU!!" #Milifandom
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    This could be the lifeline we Remainers have been yearning for - Tories lose their majority and parliament scuppers Brexit with a spoiling motion. Well done Michael Crick! Well done Channel 4! The plebs thought they had the pro-European liberal elite bested, but we were only biding our time.

    Huge amounts of ifs there and if may loses her majority you don't think she will go for a GE...Given she is only 14 points ahead.
    If she loses her majority she can't orchestrate an early election.
    Don't you need 2/3 to vote to call an early election? Having a slim majority or not wouldn't factor into that would it, they still need Labour to play ball? And the more convoluted vote of no confidence route would be on the table still, if still problematic for different reasons?
    A simple majority will do - a government can not be bound by its predecessors.

    But the Government does need to first repeal the FTPA, which will require some dedicated effort.

    Other wise yes a (Frankly unahcievable) 2/3 majority is needed.
    Do you think the DUP or the UUP will support them now ? What about boundary changes ?
    Doubt it, I don't think the government will go to the bother personally. A view I've backed up on Betfair.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    We will see but there is no appetite for a second referendum in Scotland at present but then with your blind devotion to Independence you are unlikely to accept that.
    If only I could have your clear eyed, open mided, unbiased adoration of Tessy, Brexit and the Union.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    edited March 2017

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:

    OT. Some brilliant and witty work by Banksy. The only current artist who produces worthwhile social commentary. He said of his work

    "My accountant was concerned people would be scared venturing into the West Bank. I reminded him my last show got people to Weston Super Mare"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39156386

    @Roger, not sure if you caught this FPT, but would you care to offer your professional opinion? For anyone tempted to move to Canberra to work for the Australian Department of Finance, their graduate applications are opening soon. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, this is $37,400 of recruitment campaign right here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvrcEjlSDvA

    I particularly enjoyed this scene-by-scene analysis.

    I'm beginning to grasp why folk like you get paid the big bucks...
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    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    We will see but there is no appetite for a second referendum in Scotland at present but then with your blind devotion to Independence you are unlikely to accept that.
    If only I could have your clear eyed, open mided, unbiased adoration of Tessy, Brexit and the Union.
    I voted remain, have many family connections in Scotland, most of whom value the Union, and so far Theresa May has provided a competent hand on the tiller in difficult times. There are over 1 million Scots who voted for Brexit and deserve a voice.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    IanB2 said:



    From a LibDem perspective, I can assure you that when we travel to help other constituency campaigns our members are willing to pay their own expenses. We don't expect our party to lay on free coach transport and free bed and board, as Tory HQ provided to its activists. The question is how on Earth the Tories thought that spending lots of money transporting activists to Thanet or Torbay, or wherever, and accommodating and feeding them while they were there, could possibly be passed off as "national" campaign expenditure?

    And from a Conservative perspective, as somebody who received e-mails inviting me to go on the "battle bus", I can assure you that the accommodation costs had to be met by those volunteering.

    And as a LibDem, you really want to delve into Torbay election expenses?
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    This whole affair is so surreal - accusation and counter accusation between Presidents must be un precedented
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Not looking good for Vauxhall workers in the UK in the long term .I am sure the French will be looking to secure their own plants.
    Whether Brexit will have an impact either way on there location is hard to say at the moment.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
    I thought it was Stuart, former member of this parish. Swedish wife IIRC..?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    It was quite a good joke by the Bath blogger. I've come to appreciate his work.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    I'll offer a bet that pro Indy Ref II (SNP & Green) will beat anti Indy Ref II (SCon, SLab, SLD, UKIP), since that's the way Tessy has framed these elections. £10 at evens, which I think is a fair price?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
    I thought it was Stuart, former member of this parish. Swedish wife IIRC..?
    No, different Stuarts. Don't think the rev has ever posted here.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
    I thought it was Stuart, former member of this parish. Swedish wife IIRC..?
    No, different Stuarts. Don't think the rev has ever posted here.
    Neither resident in Scotland, Strangely.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,921

    Chris said:

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    If this is true, Obama's looking at prison time. An enormous scandal.
    What do you mean - IF it's true?

    Surely you're not suggesting that Donald Trump would tweet anything but God's honest truth? :-)
    Trump would have to be insane to issue that explosive tweet unless he had absolute proof. I don't believe he's insane.
    He's such a stranger to the truth I doubt the word "proof" is even in his vocabulary.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Andy Murray wins the ATP 500 Dubai title beating Fernando Verdasco 6:3 6:2
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
    I thought it was Stuart, former member of this parish. Swedish wife IIRC..?
    No, different Stuarts. Don't think the rev has ever posted here.
    Neither resident in Scotland, Strangely.
    Chust like your good self, mo ghradh.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed

    Having the nobility running affairs has much to commend it .... :smiley:
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,921

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed
    I find that quite rich coming from someone who supports the party that was a happy to have a HoL with a permanent Tory majority composed of aristocratic hereditaries until less than 20 years ago !
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe, but it's just another one of those things that Brexit has turned upside down.

    The people that used to loathe it now cheer-lead for it and those who advocated for it now want it reformed or abolished.

    It's like the oft mentioned fruit pickers on low wages. They used to be described as a symbol of low wage oppression, now they are a true wonder of the european ideal.

    Genuine proportional representation is another. It used to be the aim, now it should be banned because the people don't know what they are voting for or against.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Andy Murray!!!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
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    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Let's face it, such is their soaring sense of entitlement that the Brexit elite would like to do away with parliament, the judiciary and the media and have us ruled by the verbal decree of Theresa May or Nigel Farage or Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin - whichever one is deemed sufficiently Brexity at the time.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It appears trump claims based upon brietbart article are in turn based upon an article by everybodies favourite former pb...

    https://heatst.com/world/exclusive-fbi-granted-fisa-warrant-covering-trump-camps-ties-to-russia/

    Oddly, she seems to have turned herself into a more serious campaigner than she ever was in parliament.
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    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed
    I find that quite rich coming from someone who supports the party that was a happy to have a HoL with a permanent Tory majority composed of aristocratic hereditaries until less than 20 years ago !
    I have never supported the HOL but that does not stop me being a conservative and seeking change
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Claims of homophobia are over egging it somewhat, it was an unpleasant thing to say, but that’s all imo. - Always nice to catch up on what former PBers are now doing. :lol:
    Which ex PBer is that?
    I thought it was Stuart, former member of this parish. Swedish wife IIRC..?
    No, different Stuarts. Don't think the rev has ever posted here.
    Neither resident in Scotland, Strangely.
    Chust like your good self, mo ghradh.
    How your ever pissed feeble fifty must dread a second referendum and the risk of returning to penury,unemployment and buckfast.
  • Options

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Let's face it, such is their soaring sense of entitlement that the Brexit elite would like to do away with parliament, the judiciary and the media and have us ruled by the verbal decree of Theresa May or Nigel Farage or Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin - whichever one is deemed sufficiently Brexity at the time.
    You missed out Nicola
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Eye Spy MP‏
    @eyespymp

    Last night @Ed_Miliband and his wife were mobbed by over 30 intoxicated teenagers screaming "ED WE LOVE YOU!!" #Milifandom

    Labour selectorate, take note.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Quite so. Good that it will be discussed, but a lot of it seems to be people being rapidly converted to the cause, which may not bode well if such people among MPs try to come up with solutions to complex issues.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited March 2017

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Eye Spy MP‏
    @eyespymp

    Last night @Ed_Miliband and his wife were mobbed by over 30 intoxicated teenagers screaming "ED WE LOVE YOU!!" #Milifandom

    Labour selectorate, take note.
    Sentiments which require intoxication.

    As did betting on Ed's return.......

  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No. But I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    Fighting yesterday's battles. On current polling the Scot conservatives will do well in May and would increase seats if a GE was held
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed
    I find that quite rich coming from someone who supports the party that was a happy to have a HoL with a permanent Tory majority composed of aristocratic hereditaries until less than 20 years ago !
    I have never supported the HOL but that does not stop me being a conservative and seeking change
    Changing HoL now is going to open an absolute stinking can of worms. For example, elections via PR, thereby flooding the HoL with a load of populist nutjobs who people vote in because they think HoL isn't that important and not the proper government.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    Eye Spy MP‏
    @eyespymp

    Last night @Ed_Miliband and his wife were mobbed by over 30 intoxicated teenagers screaming "ED WE LOVE YOU!!" #Milifandom

    Labour selectorate, take note.
    Sentiments which require intoxication.

    As did betting on Ed's return.......

    EICIPM II?
  • Options
    AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    edited March 2017

    Trump accuses Obama of tapping his phone
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39167110

    Oh look, a huge dead cat. Sad !
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,132
    Spot the difference:

    This could be the lifeline we Remainers have been yearning for - Tories lose their majority and parliament scuppers Brexit with a spoiling motion. Well done Michael Crick! Well done Channel 4! The plebs thought they had the pro-European liberal elite bested, but we were only biding our time.

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Let's face it, such is their soaring sense of entitlement that the Brexit elite would like to do away with parliament, the judiciary and the media and have us ruled by the verbal decree of Theresa May or Nigel Farage or Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin - whichever one is deemed sufficiently Brexity at the time.
    Altogether now after Stark Dawning

    'Euro elite good, Brexit elite bad. Euro elite good, Brexit elite bad. Four legs good, two legs bad. Euro elite good, Brexit elite bad.'
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    She did well picking up the Unionist pieces after SLab exploded at the SNP's hands. Prior to SLab's implosion her most notable contributions to Scottish politics was sitting on things and watching SCon go backwards.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    On topic. - If maximum expense limits have been exceeded, then the Electoral Commission should impose fines on those found guilty. I doubt the electoral results in the six unnamed constituencies will be overturned however, the whole issue will be treated just as with the Lib Dems and their 20K maximum fine. - Not that we know much of the who, what ands where’s.

    I understand the Representation of the People Act to be very prescriptive. If an MP is found to have been elected improperly he is barred from public office for a period, so there will necessarily be a new election where be won't be allowed to stand.
    They will want to make sure any misdemeanor is pinned on the party or the agent, and not the MP. The party would get a fine; the agent would be barred from acting I the future, but that doesn't matter. If the MP is found to be responsible he will have to resign and a new election will be called
    Hardly an expert on the subject, but I’m not sure the Representation of the People Act applies in this case, this looks like a simple case of electoral funding irregularities rather than what Phil Woolas did, to be stripped of his MP status.
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    On topic. - If maximum expense limits have been exceeded, then the Electoral Commission should impose fines on those found guilty. I doubt the electoral results in the six unnamed constituencies will be overturned however, the whole issue will be treated just as with the Lib Dems and their 20K maximum fine. - Not that we know much of the who, what ands where’s.

    I understand the Representation of the People Act to be very prescriptive. If an MP is found to have been elected improperly he is barred from public office for a period, so there will necessarily be a new election where be won't be allowed to stand.
    They will want to make sure any misdemeanor is pinned on the party or the agent, and not the MP. The party would get a fine; the agent would be barred from acting I the future, but that doesn't matter. If the MP is found to be responsible he will have to resign and a new election will be called
    The MP signs the expenses declaration alongside his agent.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.

    Might it be your assessment is less than disinterested ?

  • Options

    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Maybe but they have not helped themselves and even without Brexit change is needed
    I find that quite rich coming from someone who supports the party that was a happy to have a HoL with a permanent Tory majority composed of aristocratic hereditaries until less than 20 years ago !
    I have never supported the HOL but that does not stop me being a conservative and seeking change
    Changing HoL now is going to open an absolute stinking can of worms. For example, elections via PR, thereby flooding the HoL with a load of populist nutjobs who people vote in because they think HoL isn't that important and not the proper government.
    I agree now is not the time to change the HOL but change must be included in the 2020 manifestos
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    As someone who helped draft the constitutional reform package, I wouldn't get too excited by these 100K signature debates - like the one on Trump, they make good copy but the government shrugs and moves on. Unless they want to do whatever it is, of course, but I doubt if May will feel that things are so wonderfully stable that it's a good moment for a constitutional upheaval.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    I take it the large number of Russian diplomat/official type people croaking it is just one of those coincidence things?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Alistair said:

    I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.

    Might it be your assessment is less than disinterested ?

    I remain, as ever, scrupulously unbiased in my assesment.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,132

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No. But I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    Fighting yesterday's battles. On current polling the Scot conservatives will do well in May and would increase seats if a GE was held
    Alistair does have a point though.

    People are only predicting 5-6 SCON MPs at the next general election even with the disasters that have befallen SLAB and SLD.

    Compare that with the 10MPs SCON won in 1987 or the 11 MPs the Welsh Conservatives won in 2015.
  • Options

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    As someone who helped draft the constitutional reform package, I wouldn't get too excited by these 100K signature debates - like the one on Trump, they make good copy but the government shrugs and moves on. Unless they want to do whatever it is, of course, but I doubt if May will feel that things are so wonderfully stable that it's a good moment for a constitutional upheaval.
    I have said that now is not the time but 2020 most certainly is - the expense and troughing of most members is outrageous
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    You mean getting less than lamentable SLab in the constitiuency vote, and 22.9% on the List? A performance even Corbyn Labour might baulk at.
  • Options
    See Corbyn addressing a NHS protest - somethings never change - I have one word for him and the protestors - Copeland
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    kle4 said:

    The problem for Mrs May is that she can't pin this on the ancien régime given how much her Chief of Staff is implicated in all of this.

    Nice try.

    The problem for the Cameroons is they can't blame shift given how long and how often they have told us how brilliant Dave and George were on winning seats.
    The Cameroons having problems doesn't matter because they are not in situ, so it doesn't work as a distraction.
    But any re-habilitation of Osborne has surely been put off?
    Why does Osborne need to be rehabilitated, the state of the UK economy and his focus on a Northern Powerhouse suggests he has every right to be relaxed about his Cabinet legacy? The way that May sacked Osborne, and the subsequent briefing from No10 making that clear remains one of her earliest political errors. May might think that she can get away with leaving a political talent like Osborne sitting on the backbenches when she is facing a Labour party in complete dissaray under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

    I was a Remain voter, but now we have voted for Brexit, I just want the Government to get on with delivering it and getting the best possible deal for the UK. And while I don't doubt May's commitment on this, I remain utterly uninspired by her choice of Boris Johnson and David Davis in the two key posts in charge of delivering that Brexit deal.

    If I was a totally ruthless Leader who recognised that my whole premiership was going to be judged through the prism of Brexit, I would want the A team in charge. And while unpalatable to No10 and some other senior politicians, Osborne and Gove would have been a far tougher, more experienced and effective team when faced with the intransigence of the EU when it comes to those Brexit negotiations.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    Alistair said:

    I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.

    Might it be your assessment is less than disinterested ?

    I remain, as ever, scrupulously unbiased in my assesment.
    Thank you for your utterly impartial response .. :smile:
  • Options
    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    The problem for Mrs May is that she can't pin this on the ancien régime given how much her Chief of Staff is implicated in all of this.

    Nice try.

    The problem for the Cameroons is they can't blame shift given how long and how often they have told us how brilliant Dave and George were on winning seats.
    The Cameroons having problems doesn't matter because they are not in situ, so it doesn't work as a distraction.
    But any re-habilitation of Osborne has surely been put off?
    Why does Osborne need to be rehabilitated, the state of the UK economy and his focus on a Northern Powerhouse suggests he has every right to be relaxed about his Cabinet legacy? The way that May sacked Osborne, and the subsequent briefing from No10 making that clear remains one of her earliest political errors. May might think that she can get away with leaving a political talent like Osborne sitting on the backbenches when she is facing a Labour party in complete dissaray under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

    I was a Remain voter, but now we have voted for Brexit, I just want the Government to get on with delivering it and getting the best possible deal for the UK. And while I don't doubt May's commitment on this, I remain utterly uninspired by her choice of Boris Johnson and David Davis in the two key posts in charge of delivering that Brexit deal.

    If I was a totally ruthless Leader who recognised that my whole premiership was going to be judged through the prism of Brexit, I would want the A team in charge. And while unpalatable to No10 and some other senior politicians, Osborne and Gove would have been a far tougher, more experienced and effective team when faced with the intransigence of the EU when it comes to those Brexit negotiations.
    Osborne was a good chancellor in parts but he is not the right person for Brexit. David Davis has done well so far and Boris, is just Boris, but he is out there and apparently meeting the Russian Foreign Minister in Moscow shortly
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Alistair said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    I take it the large number of Russian diplomat/official type people croaking it is just one of those coincidence things?
    In some but not all cases, you cannot rule out a link.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    The problem for Mrs May is that she can't pin this on the ancien régime given how much her Chief of Staff is implicated in all of this.

    Nice try.

    The problem for the Cameroons is they can't blame shift given how long and how often they have told us how brilliant Dave and George were on winning seats.
    The Cameroons having problems doesn't matter because they are not in situ, so it doesn't work as a distraction.
    But any re-habilitation of Osborne has surely been put off?
    Why does Osborne need to be rehabilitated, the state of the UK economy and his focus on a Northern Powerhouse suggests he has every right to be relaxed about his Cabinet legacy? The way that May sacked Osborne, and the subsequent briefing from No10 making that clear remains one of her earliest political errors. May might think that she can get away with leaving a political talent like Osborne sitting on the backbenches when she is facing a Labour party in complete dissaray under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

    I was a Remain voter, but now we have voted for Brexit, I just want the Government to get on with delivering it and getting the best possible deal for the UK. And while I don't doubt May's commitment on this, I remain utterly uninspired by her choice of Boris Johnson and David Davis in the two key posts in charge of delivering that Brexit deal.

    If I was a totally ruthless Leader who recognised that my whole premiership was going to be judged through the prism of Brexit, I would want the A team in charge. And while unpalatable to No10 and some other senior politicians, Osborne and Gove would have been a far tougher, more experienced and effective team when faced with the intransigence of the EU when it comes to those Brexit negotiations.
    Osborne was a near perfect Chancellor but his hyperbole during the referendum campaign about a DIY recession and a punishment budget were major mistakes that were rejected not just by a majority of the nation but an even larger majority of the parties supporters. His talks of any immediate recession after the vote (not actual Brexit or A50 but after the vote) have been shown to. Be false.

    Ironically one could argue that because he did such a good job before the vote we were able to make either choice with confidence. Sadly he didn't and he burnt his own bridge and his own legacy.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    You mean getting less than lamentable SLab in the constitiuency vote, and 22.9% on the List? A performance even Corbyn Labour might baulk at.
    In the context of Scon performance in recent times it was a very good performance. Since the then poll ratings have continued to grow so the direction of travel is positive.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    Funnily enough, the FISA procedures were put in place post Nixon in order to prevent the politically motivated use of surveillance assets against political opponents as practiced by Nixon:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Intelligence_Surveillance_Act

    I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't some substance to the Russia/Trump allegations after all.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    The problem for Mrs May is that she can't pin this on the ancien régime given how much her Chief of Staff is implicated in all of this.

    Nice try.

    The problem for the Cameroons is they can't blame shift given how long and how often they have told us how brilliant Dave and George were on winning seats.
    The Cameroons having problems doesn't matter because they are not in situ, so it doesn't work as a distraction.
    But any re-habilitation of Osborne has surely been put off?
    Why does Osborne need to be rehabilitated, the state of the UK economy and his focus on a Northern Powerhouse suggests he has every right to be relaxed about his Cabinet legacy? The way that May sacked Osborne, and the subsequent briefing from No10 making that clear remains one of her earliest political errors. May might think that she can get away with leaving a political talent like Osborne sitting on the backbenches when she is facing a Labour party in complete dissaray under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

    I was a Remain voter, but now we have voted for Brexit, I just want the Government to get on with delivering it and getting the best possible deal for the UK. And while I don't doubt May's commitment on this, I remain utterly uninspired by her choice of Boris Johnson and David Davis in the two key posts in charge of delivering that Brexit deal.

    If I was a totally ruthless Leader who recognised that my whole premiership was going to be judged through the prism of Brexit, I would want the A team in charge. And while unpalatable to No10 and some other senior politicians, Osborne and Gove would have been a far tougher, more experienced and effective team when faced with the intransigence of the EU when it comes to those Brexit negotiations.
    May had to put the leading Brexiteers in charge of the exit. Otherwise, when it all goes tits up, Brexiteers would have blamed the remainers, like Osborne, for sabotage.

    It's your mess, Boris, you fix it.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    You mean getting less than lamentable SLab in the constitiuency vote, and 22.9% on the List? A performance even Corbyn Labour might baulk at.
    Corbyn's Labour got 19.1% in the list so why would they baulk at 22.9%?

    Oh and that was an increase of over 10% in the list share.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    I'll offer a bet that pro Indy Ref II (SNP & Green) will beat anti Indy Ref II (SCon, SLab, SLD, UKIP), since that's the way Tessy has framed these elections. £10 at evens, which I think is a fair price?
    No bet. She framed it as a way to boost Tory votes specifically not just any anti Indyref votes.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,132

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    On topic. - If maximum expense limits have been exceeded, then the Electoral Commission should impose fines on those found guilty. I doubt the electoral results in the six unnamed constituencies will be overturned however, the whole issue will be treated just as with the Lib Dems and their 20K maximum fine. - Not that we know much of the who, what ands where’s.

    I understand the Representation of the People Act to be very prescriptive. If an MP is found to have been elected improperly he is barred from public office for a period, so there will necessarily be a new election where be won't be allowed to stand.
    They will want to make sure any misdemeanor is pinned on the party or the agent, and not the MP. The party would get a fine; the agent would be barred from acting I the future, but that doesn't matter. If the MP is found to be responsible he will have to resign and a new election will be called
    Hardly an expert on the subject, but I’m not sure the Representation of the People Act applies in this case, this looks like a simple case of electoral funding irregularities rather than what Phil Woolas did, to be stripped of his MP status.
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    On topic. - If maximum expense limits have been exceeded, then the Electoral Commission should impose fines on those found guilty. I doubt the electoral results in the six unnamed constituencies will be overturned however, the whole issue will be treated just as with the Lib Dems and their 20K maximum fine. - Not that we know much of the who, what ands where’s.

    I understand the Representation of the People Act to be very prescriptive. If an MP is found to have been elected improperly he is barred from public office for a period, so there will necessarily be a new election where be won't be allowed to stand.
    They will want to make sure any misdemeanor is pinned on the party or the agent, and not the MP. The party would get a fine; the agent would be barred from acting I the future, but that doesn't matter. If the MP is found to be responsible he will have to resign and a new election will be called
    The MP signs the expenses declaration alongside his agent.
    I'm sure they could claim they were acting as advised by an expert.

    So the trail will lead higher up the food chain - it will be interesting to see who made the decisions.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Nigelb said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    Funnily enough, the FISA procedures were put in place post Nixon in order to prevent the politically motivated use of surveillance assets against political opponents as practiced by Nixon:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Intelligence_Surveillance_Act

    I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't some substance to the Russia/Trump allegations after all.
    Rubbish. You aren't some reluctant deep-thinking convert to the conspiracy theories.
    You've been an advocate of the smears all along.
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    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    The problem for Mrs May is that she can't pin this on the ancien régime given how much her Chief of Staff is implicated in all of this.

    Nice try.

    The problem for the Cameroons is they can't blame shift given how long and how often they have told us how brilliant Dave and George were on winning seats.
    The Cameroons having problems doesn't matter because they are not in situ, so it doesn't work as a distraction.
    But any re-habilitation of Osborne has surely been put off?
    Why does Osborne need to be rehabilitated, the state of the UK economy and his focus on a Northern Powerhouse suggests he has every right to be relaxed about his Cabinet legacy? The way that May sacked Osborne, and the subsequent briefing from No10 making that clear remains one of her earliest political errors. May might think that she can get away with leaving a political talent like Osborne sitting on the backbenches when she is facing a Labour party in complete dissaray under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

    I was a Remain voter, but now we have voted for Brexit, I just want the Government to get on with delivering it and getting the best possible deal for the UK. And while I don't doubt May's commitment on this, I remain utterly uninspired by her choice of Boris Johnson and David Davis in the two key posts in charge of delivering that Brexit deal.

    If I was a totally ruthless Leader who recognised that my whole premiership was going to be judged through the prism of Brexit, I would want the A team in charge. And while unpalatable to No10 and some other senior politicians, Osborne and Gove would have been a far tougher, more experienced and effective team when faced with the intransigence of the EU when it comes to those Brexit negotiations.
    Rather like the polititian who "died" on the set of Not the Nine O'Clock News George Osbourne's sacking has given a vitality to him and the Northern Powerhouse which it never had before.

    We had the dubious entertainment at South Lakeland's annual budget meeting of the Lib Dem Leader, the Yesmen and even chief nodder, Matt Severn praising the Northern Powerhouse. Apparently it is to be centred on Kendal - by Timmy's orders.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Nigelb said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    Funnily enough, the FISA procedures were put in place post Nixon in order to prevent the politically motivated use of surveillance assets against political opponents as practiced by Nixon:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Intelligence_Surveillance_Act

    I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't some substance to the Russia/Trump allegations after all.
    Haven't even got to the meat and bones of it yet.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    These debates are meaningless in terms of legislation.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    You mean getting less than lamentable SLab in the constitiuency vote, and 22.9% on the List? A performance even Corbyn Labour might baulk at.
    Corbyn's Labour got 19.1% in the list so why would they baulk at 22.9%?

    Oh and that was an increase of over 10% in the list share.
    If you think SLab is 'Corbyn's' Labour, you haven't been paying attention. They're so not Corbynite they were even willing to have the dire Owen Smith as leader.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    GeoffM said:

    Nigelb said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trump's morning ranting regarding wire tapping (in fact its a FISA warrant, no small thing) are indicative of many things in the man's personality but no one this side of the Atlantic has mentioned the biggest one:

    Fear.

    Seven associates in the Trump campaign had more than one private contact Russian government and/or intelligence cut outs during that election.

    Seven is a lot.

    Funnily enough, the FISA procedures were put in place post Nixon in order to prevent the politically motivated use of surveillance assets against political opponents as practiced by Nixon:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Intelligence_Surveillance_Act

    I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't some substance to the Russia/Trump allegations after all.
    Rubbish. You aren't some reluctant deep-thinking convert to the conspiracy theories.
    You've been an advocate of the smears all along.
    That there's been smoke has been obvious to all but the most one eyed observers. The probability that there is genuine combustion is increasing.

    That Trump is a narcissistic scofflaw, massively ignorant of the US Constitution is also pretty clear. That he actually collaborated with the Russians in subverting the electoral process would nonetheless be a surprise.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    A quick vacation question for any rail buffs out there - in addition to planning a trip to the UK next year, this year I'm pondering something I haven't done since I was a teenager - ride the train.

    There are essentially 2 - possibly 3 - options. They're all about 2300-2500 miles

    1. The Canadian - Toronto to Vancouver

    2. The California Zephyr - Chicago to San Francisco.

    3. The Texas Eagle - Chicago to Texas to Los Angeles

    The first two have observation dome cars etc, not sure about the Texas Eagle.

    Does anyone have experience of any of these? - or suggestions?

    I suspect the Canadian might have the most stunning scenery.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    On topic... It does feel to me something of an overreaction to require by elections for this...
    But then I suppose any punishment less than that is an insufficient deterrent to stay within the rules.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Tim_B said:

    A quick vacation question for any rail buffs out there - in addition to planning a trip to the UK next year, this year I'm pondering something I haven't done since I was a teenager - ride the train.

    There are essentially 2 - possibly 3 - options. They're all about 2300-2500 miles

    1. The Canadian - Toronto to Vancouver

    2. The California Zephyr - Chicago to San Francisco.

    3. The Texas Eagle - Chicago to Texas to Los Angeles

    The first two have observation dome cars etc, not sure about the Texas Eagle.

    Does anyone have experience of any of these? - or suggestions?

    I suspect the Canadian might have the most stunning scenery.

    I've done some the Canadian route, and most of it is across the plains provinces and it's actually very boring.

    Annoyingly, I got off before the Rockies.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    This whole affair is so surreal - accusation and counter accusation between Presidents must be un precedented
    And remains so, as Obama has yet to make any comment on the matter.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,970

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:


    I expect Scot Conservatives to take seats from the SNP and labour in May. The obsession with another referendum by Nicola will be her downfall as it will be lost

    But surely a second referendum won't happen because 'voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May'?
    Indeed I suspect that in this year's election there will be a relative swing from SNP to the Tories compared to last time. £10 if you want a bet?
    Ruth Davidson, along with presiding over the Conservatives worst ever vote share at a general election, is also the only Tory leader in 22 years to have lost seats at Scottish council elections.
    Are you predicting net losses for Scot conservatives in May
    No given their low,low base to work with. I find the hagiography of Ruth Davidson rather strange given the series of electoral disaster she presided over before (and during) SLab completely imploded and she picked up the scraps.

    A scant 400 votes different in 2015 and there would be no Tory MPs in Scotland.
    You seem happy to gloss over Ms Davidson's performance in the Scottish parliament elections just last year. Funny that.
    You mean getting less than lamentable SLab in the constitiuency vote, and 22.9% on the List? A performance even Corbyn Labour might baulk at.
    Corbyn's Labour got 19.1% in the list so why would they baulk at 22.9%?

    Oh and that was an increase of over 10% in the list share.
    If you think SLab is 'Corbyn's' Labour, you haven't been paying attention. They're so not Corbynite they were even willing to have the dire Owen Smith as leader.

    Corbyn is more unpopular than May in Scotland. And more unpopular than Kezia Dugdale. SLab policies are well to the left of the SNP.

  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    The political committee of French party The Republicans will meet on Monday to discuss the situation of its presidential candidate Francois Fillon, the party said in a statement on Saturday.

    "Given the evolution of the political situation just seven weeks from the presidential election ... the political committee, which includes notably the candidates of the (party) primaries, has been brought forward by 24 hours to Monday March 6," the statement said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-party-idUSKBN16B0IB?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)&&rpc=401
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I know it's off topic but the e petition to replace the unelected HOL is within 500 votes of 100,000 requiring it to be considered by the HOC

    Now past 99900
    Oh dear God, we need the chaos of a major constitutional change like this at this time like we need a hole in the head. Hopefully, May will bat this away immediately.
    Not upto TM. Now passed 100,000 will be debated by MP's
    Presumably this is a load of Brexit obsessives who think HoL is blocking their dream, when it is not and cannot.
    Let's face it, such is their soaring sense of entitlement that the Brexit elite would like to do away with parliament, the judiciary and the media and have us ruled by the verbal decree of Theresa May or Nigel Farage or Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin - whichever one is deemed sufficiently Brexity at the time.
    "Sense of entitlement" is as often as not a fail as an insult, because it turns out to be uncontroversially true. The Brexit elite are not really a thing as far as I can see, but if they are, they are 100% entitled to insist on the UK's exit from the EU. So where's the problem in their having a sense that that is the case?
This discussion has been closed.